SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue March 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 110419 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 110419 - 16th April to 10th May 2019 - Eastern area startingh mainly dry and bright but western areas more cloudy with risk of rain. Slightly unsettled weather spreading to most parts with rain or showers and drier spells. Temperatures trending to normal or slightly above but may be rather warm in some SE parts at times.
UKMO 020419 - 7th April to 1st May 2019 - A good deal of dry weather although a risk of showers in places, initially in the SW and NE, later S and E. Some longer settled periods probable. Initially near normal temperatures, locally rather cold in some eastern parts, but trending normal to above normal or warm later, though still with a risk of some night frosts.



CFS2 Data 100419
11-17 TEMP: normal but England and Wales below PPN: below normal but Eire and N Ireland may be above
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but Eire and N Ireland may be above
25-1M TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal perhaps above in Scotland
2M-8M TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 010419
2A-8A TEMP: below normal PPN: normal perhaps above in NE
9A-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in N Scotland
16-22 TEMP: Central and E England below elsewhere normal or above normal PPN: normal or below but SW England could be above
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 270319
28-3A TEMP: England below elsewhere normal or above PPN: below normal
4A-10 TEMP: uncertain, probably below but above in SW England PPN: S normal or below, N normal or above
11-17 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in S



JMA - issued - 100419
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN W/NW above elsewhere below PMSL above normal (Slack S).
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN W above elsewhere below PMSL above normal,well above in E (S)
20-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (slack).
27-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (slack).

JMA - issued - 030419
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal but far SW may be below (Slack S).
6A-12 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal but far SW may be below (Strong SE).
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: SW UK and SW Eire above normal elsewhere below PMSL: NE above SW below (Slack SE).
20-3M TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (Slack N).

JMA - issued - 270319
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (slack W, H in S).
30-5A TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H to W with N'ly over UK).
6A-12 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (slack W, H in S)
13-26 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal but above in far SW PMSL above normal but below in far SW (slack)



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110419
11-20 TEMP: mostly 60% prob near or below nrmal but the south 60% prob above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
1M-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
11-20 TEMP: near or above normal
PPN : above normal but S may be below.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060419
6A-15 TEMP: below normal locally above near some coasts in E and S
PPN : N below elsewhere above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal
26-5M TEMP: above normal
PPN : near or slightly above normal
6M-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010419
1A-10 TEMP: above normal but 40% prob below in N and NW half of UK and Eire.
PPN : S Eire and SW UK below normal elsewhere above normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but Scotland may be above
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal but N England 40% prob above
1M-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260319
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above normal elsewhere 60% prob below normal
5A-14 TEMP: slightly above but slightly below in NW and Eire.
PPN : above normal but Eire and parts of NW may be below.
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N and W above normal elsewhere below most likely
25-4M TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob below 40% above.




April single issue forecasts issued late March/early April.




UKMO contingency - 250319
TEMP:
April: Above normal most likely. 1 cluster near normal two above normal, ditribution shifted towards above normal.
PPN:
April: near or slightly below normal most likely however sig cluster just above normal.


CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
APR England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
APR W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere below normal




Next full month MAY 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 110419 - valid for May 2019
TEMP: Above normal (9/9)
PPN : Normal 4/9 below 5/9 mainly in W or NW elsewhere normal.

NOAA - CFS2 - 020419 - valid for May 2019 - limited number of runs
TEMP: above normal
PPN : Mostly below, locally normal in W but risk above for SW Eire



CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
MAY above normal
PPN :
MAY normal but above in E England, SW England, Wales, SW Scotland, N Ireland and Eire




Graphcs 110419
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4






NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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