SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue October 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 161118. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 161118 - 21 November to 15 December 2018 - A cold period with winds from the east and risk of frost especially so in the N and W. Some showery spells, these wintry at times especially over the hills where some snow is possible. Chance of a briefly milder spell early December with rain or showers then returning to a drier colder type again.
UKMO 091118 - 14 November to 8 December 2018 - Unsettled started with rain or showers but trending to drier types although the NW may remain unsettled. Unsettled weather with rsain or showers may return to many area late in the period. Mild start trendind near normal then colder with increased frost (and fog) risk, perhaps near normal again with unsettled types late in period. UKMO 021118 - 6 November to 30 November 2018 - A milder period with rain or showers and windy weather is likely especially for the N and W of UK with the S/E being less wet. From about mid November increasing chance of longer drier spells with increased risk of fog and frost.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 151118
16-22 TEMP: normal but above in N PPN: below normal
23-29 TEMP: mostly below normal but far NE may be above PPN: below normal but perhaps normal in England
30-6D TEMP: mostly below normal but far NE may be above PPN: normal but chance above in SW and below in far N
7D-13 TEMP: mostly normal or below normal but far NE may be above PPN: normal chance above in SW UK and Eire.

CFS2 Data 081118
8N-15 TEMP: above or well above PPN: above normal but N and E may be normal
16-22 TEMP: above or well above PPN: above normal but E England may be normal

23-29 TEMP: above normal but Eire could be normal PPN: normal or above
30-6D TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 011118
2N-8N TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above PPN: W and NW UK and Eire above, SE England below
9N-15 TEMP: above or well above PPN: W and NW above elsewhere normal
16-22 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above PPN: N above elsewhere normal
23-29 TEMP: slightly above PPN: NW above elsewhere normal



JMA - issued - 141118
28day mean - Temp below normal but far N above PPN below normal PMSL above or well above normal (SE).
17-23 TEMP: below normal in S elsewhere above PPN: below normal PMSL: above or well above normal (strong SE).
24-30 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above or well above normal (SLACK).
1D-14 TEMP: above normal but far SE may be bellow PPN: above normal but far SE may be bellow PMSL: Above normal (SW) .

JMA - issued - 071118
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN Eire and W of UK above elsewhere below PMSL NW below SE above (Strong SW) .
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but NE Scotland below PMSL: below normal (SW).
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (SW).
24-7D TEMP: above normal PPN: Eire, N Irelandna dScotland above elsewhere below PMSL: Above normal (WSW).

JMA - issued - 311018
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (SW).
3N-9N TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).
17-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: S below elsewhere above normal PMSL: above normal (WSW).



CMA 80 member Ensemble issued date 151118
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% chance of above
26-5D TEMP: near or slightly below normal
PPN : below normal
6D-15 TEMP: uncertain above/below normal newest runs above.
PPN : below normal but slightly above in N
16-25 TEMP: near normal but slightly below in N and slightly above in S
PPN : uncertain above/below normal newest runs above
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111118
11-20 TEMP: 40% prob above 60% prob below
PPN : above normal but 40% prob below in N
21-30 TEMP: near normal
PPN : below normal but 20% prob above
1D-10 TEMP: 60% prob below 40% normal
PPN : near or below normal but 40% prob above in S
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed signal slightly below in S but slightly above in N

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061118
6N-15 TEMP: NW below SE above
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 40% far N below and 40% far S below normal
26-5D TEMP: 40% below 60% above
PPN : mostly slightly below but S and far N may be slightly above
6D-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal but 40% chane S England below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 011118
1N-10 TEMP: NW half UK and Eire normal or below SE above
PPN : above normal
11-20 TEMP: normal or slightly above
PPN : split above/below slightly more slightly above normal
21-30 TEMP: normal or slightly above
PPN : S below N above
1D-10 TEMP: slightly above
PPN : mostly below normal chance above in NW




November single issue forecasts issued late August.




UKMO contingency - 291018
TEMP:
NOV: "Above average slightly more likely than below". There are two clusters one below normal and the other above although there are more in the well above normal range than typical. Median value slightly above average.
PPN:
NOV: UKMO - Above and below similar probs. The median solution is only slightly above average but there are more solutions showning above or well above than below average.



CanSIPS 011118
TEMP:
NOV normal but far NW below and SE above
PPN :
NOV above normal




Next full month DECEMBER 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - - valid for December 2018
TEMP: above normal 6/7 normal 1/7
PPN : 3/7 above normal 5/7 above in SW, otherwise normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 091118 - valid for December 2018
TEMP: 8/8 runs above normal
PPN : SW 2/8 above normal 4/8 below 2/8. N 3/8 above normal 5/8 normal. Other areas mostly normal.

NOAA - CFS2 - 011118 - valid for December 2018
TEMP: Above normal, lower probs in N
PPN : S and W above elsewhere normal



CanSIPS 011118
TEMP:
DEC Eire and parts of W UK normal elsewhere above
PPN :
DEC N and W normal elsewhere above normal




Graphcs 091118
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly 121018
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4



CFS2 MAX and MIN not available


CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME


Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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