SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue October 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 071119 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 071019 - 12th November to 6th December - Unsettled with spells of wind and rain or showers, some snow for high ground N Wales northwards and a risk early on of some snow to lower levels in Scotland. Rather cold at times. Chance of becoming drier and more settled in the S of UK and East of England (from some time late in November) with perhaps nearer normal temperatures but an increased risk of fog and more frequent frost.
UKMO 311019 - 5th November to 29th November - Unsettled with rain or showers, wintry on hills in north and windy at times so rather cold. Trending to a drier and more settled period around mid November - still chilly with risk of fog and frost, before returning to an unsettled less cold theme later in the month.


CFS2 Data 061119
7N-13 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal locally below in far N of Scotland
14-20 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or above normal
21-27 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal or above normal
28-4D TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above normal

CFS2 Data 301019
31-6N TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal but far N Scotland below
7N-13 TEMP: normal or below normal PPN: normal or above normal
14-20 TEMP: normal locally below in Eire PPN: above normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above normal



JMA - issued - 061119
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (W).
9N-15 TEMP: below normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (NW).
16-22 TEMP: below normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (NW).
23-6D TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Strong WSW).

JMA - issued - 301019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WSW).
2N-8N TEMP: Eire below elsewhere above normal PPN above normal PMSL: well below normal (CYCLONIC windy in S).
9N-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: W and SW above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (WSW).
16-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal but Scotland above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061119
6N-15 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal but 40% prob below in N Scotland
16-25 TEMP: mostly slightly above normal - 20% prob below normal
PPN : Eire 80% prob slightly below elsewhere above normal
26-5D TEMP: above normal
PPN : Eire and N Scotland 60% prob above normal elsewhere 60% prob below normal
6D-15 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : below normal but 60% prob above bormal in N

CMA 120 member Ensemble issued date data to 011119 - extra model 20 runs included.
1N-10 TEMP: below normal locally above in N anad W
PPN : S above N 50% prob below (boundry uncertain)
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but south 50% prob below
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but England and Wales 60% prob below
1D-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but England and Wales 60% prob below




NOVEMBER single issue forecasts issued late September/Early October.



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
NOV above normal but Eire normal DEC above normal
PPN :
NOV above normal DEC normal but above in S of England, S Wales and Scotland


UKMO contingency - 281019
TEMP:
Nov: Main strong cluster is about 1 deg above normal (1981-2010) with a 30% cluster of solutions near normal. About 75% of solutions show above average anomalies.
PPN:
Nov: Main cluster of solutions is around normal but with slightly more solutions favouring above average than below average. (UKMO say similar probs above or below normal).



Next full month December 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 071119 - valid for December 2019
TEMP: above normal 6/6
PPN : above normal 6/6

NOAA - CFS2 - 011119 - valid for December 2019 - limited data
TEMP: above normal
PPN : above norma but far N Scotland below



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
DEC above normal
PPN :
DEC normal but above in S of England, S Wales and Scotland




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC






NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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