SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue Nivember 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -051219- (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 031219 - 7th to 30th December 2019 - Unsettled period with wind and rain, also snow mainly for northern hills. Temperatures near normal or a little below normal but with some milder spells in the south. Late in December chance of turning drier and colder generally.
UKMO 271119 - 2nd to 16th December 2019 - Initially some showers in the N and E but then a fairly short dry period with night frosts and overall colder than average temperarures. Unsettled, at times windy, weather with rain or sbowers soon returning to Scotland and later extending to many areas - snow on hiogh ground in the North. Temperature normal or a little below normal.


CFS2 Data 021219
3D-9D TEMP: N above S normal or below PPN: N above elsewhere below
10-16 TEMP: S above N below PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: N normal elsedwhere above PPN: ABove normal locally normal in S
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: N above S normal

CFS2 Data 261119
27-3D TEMP: below normal or normal PPN: below normal
4D-10 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal but above in N
11-17 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal
18-24 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal or above



JMA - issued - 041219
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong WSW).
7D-13 TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong WNW).
14-20 TEMP: N and W below S and E above normal PPN above normal PMSL well below normal (strong W).
21-3J TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong WSW).

JMA - issued - 271119
28day mean - Temp above normal but Eire below PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Strong WSW) .
30-6D TEMP: mostly below PPN: SW above elsewhere below PMSL: above (NNW).
7D-13 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: above normal PMSL: below or well below (WNW very strong) .
14-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (very strong WSW).



CMA 40 member Ensemble issued date 011219 (data for 27 and 28 Nov only)
01-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: near normal
PPN : near or below normal 31-9J TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 261119
26-5D TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but north below normal
6D-15 TEMP: above normal but north could be below
PPN : above normal but north below normal
16-25 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : above normal
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above or slightly below normal




DECEMBER 2019single issue forecasts issued late November/Early December.



CanSIPS 301119
TEMP:
DEC mostly above normal
PPN :
DEC mostly above normal





UKMO contingency - 251119
TEMP:
DEC: Above normal most likely. Distribution shifted to above normal with less than 15% of solutions below average. Strongest cluster about 1 deg C above average.
PPN:
DEC: Above average rain is most likely. Main cluster suggest 15% above normal rainfall. Only about 20% of solutions suggest drier than average. Around 20% of solutiobs suggest about 70% higher rain total.




Next full month JANUARY 2020 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 021219 - valid for January 2020
TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal



CanSIPS 301119
TEMP:
JAN above normal
PPN :
JAN mostly above normal




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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