SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue August 2017 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 140917. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 140917 - 19 September to 13th October 2017 - Unsettled espeically in the N and W with rain or showers, less frequent in the S and E with a trend to generally less unsettled with longer drier spells between rain especially in the SE. Temperature near normal perhaps cool at times in N in windier spellsm but chance of warm sunny spells but chilly nights in the drier weather.
UKMO 070917 - 12 September to 6th October 2017 - Unsettled/changeable but with a drier spell aroud mid month in the SE. later in the month/start of October more settled weather may develop from the S with longer dry spells but with a risk of chilly nights and fog.
UKMO 010917 - 6 to 30 September 2017 - Unsettled/changeable with rain or showers and brief drier spells although the SE of the UK may more in the way of drier weather between the rain or showers. Chance of drier more settled spell late in the month. Near normal temperatures although the SE may see some warmer spells.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 130917
14-20 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal but above in S
21-27 TEMP: S below elsewhere normal PPN: normal or above normal
28-4o TEMP: above normal perhaps normal in S PPN: S below elsewhere normal
5o-11 TEMP: above normal perhaps normal in S PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 060917
7S-13 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal
13-20 TEMP: N normal elsewhere belopw PPN: normal perhaps below in S
21-27 TEMP: N above elsewhere below PPN: normal or below
28-4o TEMP: N above elsewhere normal PPN: normal locally above in N

CFS2 Data 310917
1S-7S TEMP: far N above elsewhere below PPN: normal or above
8S-14 TEMP: far N above elsewhere below PPN: normal or above
15-22 TEMP: below normal PPN: far N above far S below elsewhere normak
23-29 TEMP: normal PPN: mostly below normal but the N normal

CFS2 Data 230817
24-30 TEMP: above PPN: normal or above
31-6S TEMP: far N above elsewhere below PPN: normal or above
7S-13 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal
14-20 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal



JMA - issued - 120917
28day mean - Temp Above normal except SW parts below PPN above normal PMSL below normal except normal in N (W) .
16-22 TEMP: N above S below PPN:N below S above PMSL: N above S below (W) .
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL:above normal (WSW) .
30-13 TEMP: S Eire and SW UK below elsewhere above PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).

JMA - issued - 060917
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere above PMSL below (wnw).
9S-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well below normal (nw).
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (w).
23-6o TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (w).

JMA - issued - 300817
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (w).
2S-8S TEMP: above normal PPN: W and SW UK and Eire above normal elsewhere below PMSL: N and W below S and E above (sw) .
9S-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal especially in N (w).
16-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW above normal elsewher below PMSL: above normal (w) .

JMA - issued - 230817
28day mean - Temp below PPN above normal PMSL below normal (W).
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL:below normal (W) .
1S-7S TEMP: Scotland above normal elsewhere below PPN: above normal PMSL: below (W).
8S-14 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W)



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110917
11-20 TEMP: below normal except far N Scotland above
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: below normal except far N Scotland above
PPN : below normal but far north above
1o-10 TEMP: Slightly above normal
PPN : below normal
11-20 TEMP: below normal
PPN : mixed mostly slightly below but N and W at risk from above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060917
6S-15 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: N half Scotland above elsewhere below
PPN : 60% prob above normal
26-5o TEMP: N Scotland above elsewhere below
PPN : N above S 60% prob below
6o-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above bur N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire 60% prob below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010917
1S-10 TEMP: near normal locally above in N
PPN : below normal but S/SE may be above
11-20 TEMP: near normal locally above
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: near normal
PPN : above normal
1o-10 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : mixed near or slightly below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210817
21-30 TEMP: below normal
PPN : S UK and S Eirt below elsewhere above
31-9S TEMP: N Scotland sbove elsehere below normal
PPN : mixed 3/2 below normal
10-19 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal
21-29 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above but S of Enghland below


September single issue forecast

UKMO Contingency 290817
TEMP:
September Above normal - strong sigbnal but perhaps not as mild as in 2016
PPN:
September No signal. Mean near normal with spread of members much like climatology




Cansips 010917
TEMP: September: N Ireland, N England and Scotland above elsewhere near normal
PPN : September: N near normal elsewhere above normal



Next full month October 2017



Running total TEMP above 14/15. PPN Below Scotland 7/15 Elsewhere 11/15
NOAA - CFS2 140917 - valid for October 2017.
TEMP: Above or well above normal 7/7
PPN : Scotland 4/7 above normal elsewhere 7/7 below normal

NOAA - CFS2 070917 valid for October 2017
TEMP: Above or well above normal but England 1 in 7 chance of colder.
PPN : 4/7 above normal 3/7 below

NOAA - CFS2 010917 valid for October 2017 - limited data only 4 runs.
TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal



Cansips 010917
TEMP: October: Above normal
PPN : October: Mostly above normal







NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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