SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


Follow @T2mike
Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue September 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 031018. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 021018 - 7th October to 31st October 2018 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy at times especially in the N/NW of UK the S/SE seeing some drier spells. Later in the month a more generally settled spell is possible. Temperature cool at first then near normal but above normal for periods especially in the S/SE. SRisk that a settled spell may bring risk of fog and frost.
UKMO 300918 - 5th October to 29th October 2018 - Mostly unsettled with rain or showers and shorter drier intervals. Trending colder than average in N and after a milder start in S trending colder or near normal. Windy at times especially in the N.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 021018
3o-9o TEMP: S normal elsewhere below PPN: NW above elsewhere below
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW above elsewhere below
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in N and Eire
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but abiove in far N and below in S

CFS2 Data 290918
30-6o TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
7o-13 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal



JMA - issued - due 4th
28day mean - Temp PPN PMSL .
TEMP: PPN: PMSL: .
TEMP: PPN: PMSL: .
TEMP: PPN: PMSL: .

JMA - issued - 260918
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (WNW).
29-5o TEMP: below normal PPN below normal PMSL well above normal (WNW).
6o-12 TEMP: below normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (WNW).
13-26 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but far N above PMSL: above normal (SW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 011018
1o-10 TEMP: Near normal chance below in N
PPN : N above S below
11-20 TEMP: SE near normal SE below
PPN : slightly above but N slightly below
21-30 TEMP: Near normal perhaps below in NW and above in SE
PPN : Low probs above but locally below in England
31-9N TEMP: Near normal perhaps below in NW and above in SE
PPN : N below but S risk of above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260918
26-5o TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : below normal but far N above
6o-15 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : above normal but N/NW below
16-25 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : near or above normal
26-4N TEMP: near or above normal
PPN : near or above normal




OCTOBER single issue forecasts issued late August.



UKMO contingency - 011018
TEMP:
OCT Strong signal for below normal
PPN:Season:
OCT Mixed indication, clusters similar for above and below normal perhaps slightly favouring below normal

CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
OCT above normal
PPN :
OCT S normal elsewhere above



Next full month NOVEMBER 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 021018 - valid for November 2018 - limited data
TEMP: Above normal
PPN : uncertain prob above normal in N and W and below in S and E



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
NOV normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
NOV normal b ut central and SE England above






CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

Comments or questions please E mail


Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data