SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue JUNE 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 120718. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 120718 - 16th July to 9th August 2018 - Although the S/SE will be very warm at times with dry periods there is a biiger risk of thunderstorms bringing rain, elsewhere some dry spells and mostly above normal temperatures but also more changeable periods with rain or showers.
UKMO 050718 - 10th July to 3rd August 2018 - Dry and warm locally hot weather continues for many, but a little cooler near some coasts. In the NW of UK and perhaps later in the period also the W and NW, some rain or drizzle or showers at times and a little cooler. In the south a risk of thundery rain/showers from time to time.
UKMO 020718 - 7th July to 31st July 2018 - Mainly dry and warm weather continues. The NW of UK likely to see some rain or drizzle at times though even here drier than normal. In the south a risk of some thundery showers from time to time.
UKMO 280618 - 3rd July to 27th July 2018 - A good deal of fine and dry weather although the N and NW may have some changeable spells and in the S there is a risk of thundery showers but any spells of rain in the south are liely to be short lived. A brefly less hot spells is possible but in further warm or hot spells are likely although the NW may be see nearer normal temperatures at times.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 110718
12-18 TEMP: well above normal PPN: below normal but England normal
19-25 TEMP: well above normal PPN: below normal but England normal
26-1A TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
2A-8A TEMP: above normal but England normal PPN: normal but risk of above in W

CFS2 Data 040718
5J-11 TEMP: well above normal PPN: below normal
12-18 TEMP: well above normal PPN: below normal but S normal
19-25 TEMP: well above normal but far N normal PPN: N below elsewhere normal
26-1A TEMP: well above normal but far N normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 010718
2J-8J TEMP: well above normal PPN: below normal
9J-15 TEMP: well above normal PPN: below normal
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but N Scotland above



JMA - issued - 120718
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal but England below normal PMSL below normal.
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below in N above in S (W) .
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: S below elsewhere above PMSL: below in N and far S elsewhere above (W).
28-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal but in SW below normal (NW).

JMA - issued - 040718
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (weak W).
7J-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above normal (H. E'ly in S).
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: N below normal S above normal PMSL: above normal (WNW weak).
21-3A TEMP: above normal PPN: N below normal S above normal PMSL: above normal (WNW weak).

JMA - issued - 260618
28day mean - Temp far N below elsewhere above normal PPN below normal (risk of above near the S) PMSL above normal (below over France) (Slack)
30-6J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal (risk above normal in far S) PMSL: above normal (weak).
7J-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (weak NW).
14-27 TEMP: N below elsewhere above PPN: far S above elsewhere below PMSL: far S below elsewhere above (Slack).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110718
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed signal chance above/below
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date due 060718
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but S Eire 40% prob above normal
5A-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N 60% prob slightly below normal S 60% prob slightly above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010718
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but risk of above in far S but mainly N France
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but Scotland, N Ireland and Eire 60% risk normal or above
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal but some risk of above in far N
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 20% risk above in far N

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260618
26-5Jly TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 20% chance above in N Scotland
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 20% chance above in Scotland
26-4Aug TEMP: above normal
PPN : S Eire and S England more likely below normal elsewhere probs mostly slightly favour above normal



July single issue forecasts issued late June.

UKMO contingency 260618 TEMP: Based on whole UK single value average forecast July: Above normal more likely. Median value about 1 C above normal. 25% of output below normal 75% above. Looks like 3 cluster once near normal and two above normal PPN: July: Roughly 30/70 split above/below normal. Main cluster around 60mm for month UK average.

CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
JUL well above normnal
PPN :
JUL below normal



Next full month August 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 110718 valid for August 2017.
TEMP: N normal or above elsewhere above or well above normal
PPN : normal chance of below mainly in S

NOAA - CFS2 050718 valid for August 2018
TEMP: above normal

PPN : normal or below normal

NOAA - CFS2 020718 valid for August 2018
TEMP: above normal
PPN : Scotland below normal elsewhere normal but risk above in far S



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
AUG normal but England Wales and SE Eire above normal PPN :
AUG normal but below in SE England



ECMWF seasonal for August
TN1

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 090718
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data (070718)

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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