SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue November 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 131218. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Comment: 071218 UKMO differs from CFS and JMA which are milder but there is some support from CMA.

Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 121218 - 17 December 2018 - 10 January 2019 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy for periods. Temperature recovering to near normal and at times mild except perhaps in the north where cold enough at times for some hill snow. Probably turning drier and colder early in the new year.
UKMO 061218 - 11 December 2018 - 4 January 2019 - Colder. Some dry weather but with the risk of showers in East, perhaps wintry in places. In the west, however, a risk of cloudier, windier weather with rain (hill snow in N) and less cold. Chance of milder wet and windy weather edging further east at times and more generally in the last week of December. Probably turning drier and colder again by the end of the year.
UKMO 031218 - 7 to 31 December 2018 - Unsettled with rain or showers (snow on northern hills) and windy at times but for a week or so around mid December drier weather is likely, especially in the south, with a risk of fog and frost. Mild with the wet weather but colder in the north at times and during the drier weather.
UKMO 281118 - 3 to 28 December 2018 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy at times - some snow for the northern mountains but mostly normal or above normal temepratures. Eastern areas, however, probably drier and colder at times especially for a period around mid month.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 091218
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: N normal S above normal
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
31-6J TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in NW UK

CFS2 Data 061218
7D-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
14-20 TEMP: above normal but perhaps normal in N Ireland and Eire PPN: above normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
28-3J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but England and Wales normal

CFS2 Data 021218
3D-9D TEMP: above normal but Scotland normal PPN: above normal
10-16 TEMP: above normal but Scotland normal PPN: above normal in Eire and Scotland elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above normal

CFS2 Data 271118
28-4D TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
5D-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: N above normal S normal risk above in SW
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above
19-25 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above



JMA - issued - 131218
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Gale WSW).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well belopw normal (Gale WSW).
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below and in N well below normal (Gale WNW) .
29-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: S above normal elsewhere below normal (Gale WSW)

JMA - issued - 051218
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal but far S above (gale WSW).
8D-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (Strong SW).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (strong WSW) .
22-4J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: bekow normal (strong WSW) .

JMA - issued - 281118
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal WSW .
1D-7D TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal, well below in N (Strong SW).
8D-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal, well below in N (Strong WSW).
15-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: S above normal elsewhere below (strong WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111218
11-20 TEMP: N below S above
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: below normal
PPN : mostly above normal but N and Eire may be below
31-9J TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: below normal
PPN : mostly above normal but S may be below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061218
6D-15 TEMP: N Scotland below elsewhere above
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: 60% prob below normal 40% above
PPN : below normal
26-4J TEMP: 20% prob below normal 80% above PPN : above normal
5J-14 TEMP: 60% prob below normal 40% above
PPN : Eire and N Ireland 60% prob above normal elsewhere 60% prob below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 011218 - updated 071218
1D-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 20% prob N/NE Scotland being normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob below normal in N, 40% in S.
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9J TEMP: 60% prob above 40% prob near or below normal
PPN : Below normal but 40% prob above normal in N




December single issue forecasts issued late November.



UKMO Contingency v2 031218
Temp December: Majority of solutuions are above average but there is a sig cluster at just below. More likely above normal than below.
PPN December: marginally more solutions show above normal but sig cluster below normal and fewer solutions near normal suggest split solutions and may imply parts of UK drier others wetter.


CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
DEC England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
DEC Scotland normal elsewhere above (especially far S)




Next full month JANUARY 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 101218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: above normal 4/4 [10/10]
PPN : above normal 4/4 [10/10]

NOAA - CFS2 - 061218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: above normal 4/4 [6/6]
PPN : above normal 4/4 [6/6]

NOAA - CFS2 - 021218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: above normal 2/2
PPN : above normal 2/2



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
JAN SW Eire and SW England normal elsewere above
PPN :
JAN normal




Graphcs
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly 121018
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4



CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME


Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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