SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue February 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 180319. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 140319 - 18th March to 11th April 2019 - Unsettled with rain/showers and windy, at first though more especially in the NW. The N may remains a little unsettled but elsewhere, especially in the S, becoming more settled and drier and this may extend further N for a time. Chance of weakly unsettled spells later. Temperatures near normal perhaps a little below normal in N at first. Later above normal especially in S. Still the chance of frost. Snow risk confinded to northern areas mainly high ground.
UKMO 070319 - 12th March to 5th April 2019 - Mostly unsettled with rain or showers, wintry at times in the north, and often windy. Possibly a drier spell developing for a time in the south at the end of March or into April which could extend further north for a time. Average temepratures in south, colder in N. Possibly more frequent frost than average, trending warmer later in period.
UKMO 020319 - 7th to 31st March 2019 - Changeable at times wet and windy with drier or showery spells in between, risk of snow for northern hills/mountains. Chance of frost in between wetter spells. Temperatures milder wet and windy spells with colder showery interludes. Chance of less unsettled/drier weather towards the end of March.
UKMO 270219- 3rd to 27th March 2019 - Unsettled at times wet and windy weather especially in the N and W, typically less wet in some E and SE parts. Snow risk for high ground in N. Chance of a longer drier spell for central and S/E parts late in March. Temperatures near or above normal.


CFS2 Data 130319
14-20 TEMP: S above elsewhere normal PPN: above normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: N above normal elsewhere normal
28-3A TEMP: N normal S above PPN: normal perhaps above in N
4A-10 TEMP: normal locally above PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 060319
7M-13 TEMP: S above elsewhere normal or below (mostly below) PPN: above normal
14-20 TEMP: below normal but S England normal or above PPN:above normal
21-27 TEMP: normal (especially N and W) or above PPN: normal or above (especially NW and S)
28-3A TEMP: N/NW normal S/SE above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 010319
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but NE normal
9M-15 TEMP: S above normal N normal PPN: above normal but normal in SW
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal, chance of above in NW
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal, chance of above in NW



JMA - issued - 140319
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN N above S below PMSL above normal (WSW strong in N).
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: N below far S above (gale WNW).
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: N above S below PMSL:above normal (WSW strong in N) .
30-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: below but far N above normal PMSL: above normal (W, weak in S-ridge).

JMA - issued - 070319
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal but normal in far S (WNW).
9M-15 TEMP: Far S above elsewhere below PPN: above normal PMSL: below and well below in N (Glae WNW).
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW).
23-5A TEMP: above normal PPN: N above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (WNW).

JMA - issued - 280218
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal perhaps near normal in S (W strong).
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well below normal (gale WNW).
9M-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: S above normal N below (WNW strong).
16-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: S above normal N below (WNW strong).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160319
16-25 TEMP: above normal but NW Scotland chance of normal or below
PPN : above normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : low probs favour above normal
5A-14 TEMP: normal or slightly above
PPN : 60/40 split in favour of slightyl above rather than slightly below normal
15-24 TEMP: normal or slightly above
PPN : above normal but chance of below in SW UK and SW Eire.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110319
11-20 TEMP: above normal but far N normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal but 40% prob NW third of Uk below normal
PPN : above normal
31-9A TEMP: near or slightly above 60% slightly below 40%
PPN : near or slightly below normal
10-19 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060319
6M-15 TEMP: below normal but S of England may be above
PPN : above normal but far N Scotland 40% prob below normal
16-25 TEMP: 60% chance above 40% below
PPN : above normal but N Scotland 40% prob below normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : Mixed signals for many 40% prob above 60% prob below, but NE Scotland and [arts of England 80% below normal, Eire 60% prob above normal
5A-14 TEMP: above normal but 20% prob normal or below
PPN : Above normal but N and E Scotland and NE England 40% prob below normal

CMA 60 runs only due short month. Ensemble issued date 010319 due 3rd
1M-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
11-20 TEMP: normal chance below
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: near normal
PPN : N above normal elsewhere near or below normal
31-9A TEMP: near normal
PPN : mostly below normal



ECMWF weekly - 020319 not always available?
TEMP:
25-3M above normal
4M-10 mostly above normal
11-17 W Eire slightly below, S Scotland, England and Wales slightly above elsewhere normal
18-24 mostly above normal locally normal W Eire
PPN:
25-3M normal locallt below in NW Scotland, SE Scotland, NE England and NW Midlands.
4M-10 mostly above normal
11-17 mostly above normal but parts of NE England normal
18-24 NW Scotland above, below in N Ireland E Eire Wales SE Scotland and England except the south, elsewhere normal




March single issue forecasts issued late Feb/early March.



UKMO contingency - 250219
TEMP:
March: Above normal most likely (only about 10% of members are below normal and the distribition is shifted to warmer conditions with about 25% showing well above average forecast values.
PPN:
March: Uncertain. Similar probabilities for above and below normal, perhaps slightly favouring wetter. Could be a split solution with N wetter and S less so but not able to determin this from issued graphics. A minority of forecast solutions exceed the climate range both above and below.



CanSIPS 280219
TEMP:
MAR above normal
PPN :
MAR above normal


Next full month APRIL 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 130319 - valid for April 2019
TEMP: above normal (6/6) perhaps normal in N
PPN : normal (5/6) chance below (1/6)

NOAA - CFS2 - 070319 - valid for April 2019
TEMP: above normal (5/5)
PPN : normal but above in NW 4/5 and below in far S (2/5) (

NOAA - CFS2 - 020319 - valid for April 2019 - limited runs
TEMP: above normal
PPN : normal or above but below in North



CanSIPS - 280219
TEMP:
APR above normal
PPN :
APR SW Eire above normal, S England below normal elsewhere normal


Graphcs 090319
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly 140319
EC

UKMO monthly 130219
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4

DWD monthly 130219
EC

WMO monthly 130219
EC




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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