SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue January 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -150220- (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 140210 - 119th February to 13th March 2020 Unsettled with rain oir showers and snow mainly for northern hills - windy at times - mostly above normal tremperatures. Drier spell late February short lived but perhaops longer period later in March though with increased frost risk and lower temperatures.
UKMO 060210 - 11th February to 5th March 2020 - Unsettled weather with rain or showers, some snow for northern hills and mountains. Windy at times. Mostly mild temperatures opnly brief colder intervals. Late Feb and Early March drier more settled weather may develop from the south.
UKMO 300120 - 4th to 26th February 2020 - Unsettled weather with rain or showers and some snow for northern areas but in the south turning drier, more settled, with sunny spells but risk of fog and frost developing overnight. This drier weather extending further north for a time before unsettled types return more widely in the north. Temeratures normal to mild initially and again later in the North but otherwise normal and trending colder.


CFS2 Data 130220
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: N above normal elsewhere normal
28-5M TEMP: above normal PPN: N above normal S below elsewhere normal
6M-11 TEMP: S above normal N normal PPN: normal but above in far N

CFS2 Data 050220
6F-12 TEMP: above normal but N and W normal PPN:
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal but parts of S and E may be normal
20-26 TEMP: above normal locally normal in West PPN: normal but locally above in N IReland and Eire
27-4M TEMP: above normal locally normal in West PPN: normal but locally above in N IReland and Eire

CFS2 Data 290120
30-5F TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal
6F-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal but normal in S
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal but far south could be below



ECMWF 100220
10-16 TEMP: normal but SE England above normal PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but western coasts and N above normak
24-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: normal locally below in S but above in NW
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN:
9M-15 TEMP: above normal but W Eire normal PPN: W Scotland above elsewhere mostly below
16-22 TEMP: normal PPN: NW above SE below

ECMWF 030220
3F-9F TEMP: above normal PPN: normal locally above in W Scotland
10-16 TEMP: N and W normal elsewhere above normal PPN: mostly above normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: W Eire, W Scotland NW England and NW Wales above elsewhere normal
24-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: NW Scotland above, Wales, S half of England and S half of Eire below, elsewhere normal
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly below normal but NW Scotland above
9M-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: N and W normal but NW Scotland above, elsewhere below normal

ECMWF 270120
27-2F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal in western exposures elsewhere normal
3F-9F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal in NW Scotland, below normal ion Eire Wales and SW third of England elsewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal most areas but normal in E of England
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal most areas but normal in E of England
24-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: W and NW above normal, S and E below normal also E Eire.
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly belopw normal locally above in NW Highland Scotland



JMA - issued - 120220
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Strong WSW).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Strong WSW).
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: S above elsewhere below (SW strong in N).
29-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: N and W above elsewhere below PMSL: S above elsewhere below (SW strong in N)

JMA - issued - 050220
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal but in far S above normal (StrongWSW).
8F-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well below normal (gale WSW).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but SE England below PMSL: below normal but S above (strong WSW).
22-6M TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal except NW Scotland above PMSL: above normal (WSW-W).

JMA - issued - 290120
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN far N above normal elsewhere below PMSL above normal (SW strong in N).
1F-7F TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal PMSL: Belopw in N above in S (WNW).
8F-14 TEMP: above normal PPN far NW above normal elsewhere below PMSL above normal (SW strong in N).
15-28 TEMP: above normal PPN far NW above normal elsewhere below PMSL well above normal (SW strong in N - H over S).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110220
11-20 TEMP: below normal but SE may be above
PPN : above normal
21-1M TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above normal below
2M-11 TEMP: near or below normal but NE may be above
PPN : mostly below normal
12-21 TEMP: normal or above
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060220
6F-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above S normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
26-6M TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : above normal
7M=16 TEMP: N above elsewhere below
PPN : above normal but N may be below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010220
1F-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal
11-20 TEMP: mostly above normal but N and W 40% prob normal
PPN : mostly above normal
21-1M TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above normal S below normal
2M-11 TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN : mixed signal N mainly above elsewhere could be slightly below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260120
26-4F TEMP: above normal risk of normal or below in far N
PPN : above normal
5F-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : Most likely below in S most likely above in N
25-3M TEMP: above normal
PPN : Most likely below in S most likely above in N




February 2020single issue forecasts issued late December/Early Jan.



NOAA - CFS2 - 140220 - valid for March 2020
TEMP: above normal 8/8
PPN : N above normal 8/8 S below normal 8/8 elsewher mainly normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 0602N above normal 5/620 - valid for March 2020
TEMP: above normal 5/6 (1 missing)
PPN : N above normal 5/6 (1 missing), S above normal 3/6, 2 normal 1 below in far south.



CanSIPS 060220
TEMP:
FEB above normal
PPN :
FEB normal but above in W Scotland, N Ireland, Eire and Cornwall .



UKMO contingency - 270120

UKMO says stratospheric vortex stronger than average and likely to remain so. EC and GFS suggest warming evening likely in first week of February with possible split in vorext but GFS 15 day suggest 10hPa vortex restrengthens at least for a time though with further "Canadian" warming. TEMP:
Feb: Very few model runs normal or below (UKMO say 5% prob or less of colder than average). Median anomaly about plus 2 C.
PPN:
Feb: Large spread in solutions with one cluster above and one below average, slightly favouring above average rainfall. Suggestion of High pressure in the south might infer a split solution with the north wetter and south drier.




Next full month MARCH2020 (number of runs) [running total]



CanSIPS 060220
TEMP:
MAR above normal
PPN :
MAR mostly below normal but N Scotland normal.




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

---> ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC



---> WMO monthly
WMO




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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