SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue August 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 160918. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 140918 - 19th September to 13th October 2018 - Mostly an unsettled theme with rain or showers and chance of windy conditions mainly in the NW. The SE of UK may become drier for periods, especially late September/early October. Temperatures mostly average or above but warm at times in SE.
UKMO 060918 - 11th September to 5th October 2018 - Some bands of rain or showers may spread from the west to all parts early and late in the period but otherwise southern parts should have longer dry and warm periods. Elsewhere though more changeable weather is likely with neaerer normal temeratures.
UKMO 310818 - 4th to 28th September 2018 - Although the NW may have some rain or showers with near normal temperatures other areas are more likely to see a good deal of dry weather with above average temperatures and at times warm weather. There is a risk howver that some thundery showers may occur in some SE parts of UK and night time temps may be on the cool side with an increased risk of mist or fog in the mornings.

CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 130918
14-20 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above PPN: N half above far S below elsewhere normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: N normal S below
28-4o TEMP: uncertain probably above normal PPN: normal
5o-11 TEMP: uncertain probably above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 050918
6S-12 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal locally above in N England and S Scotland
13-19 TEMP: N below S above PPN: normal or below
20-26 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal perhaps below in N
27-3oct TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal perhaps below in N

CFS2 Data 300818
31-6S TEMP:N normal or below S above PPN: below normal
7S-13 TEMP: far N may be near normal elsewhere above normal PPN: below normal
14-20 TEMP: above normal perhaps normal in N PPN: near normal
21-27 TEMP: mostly above normal but NW and Eire may be neaer normal PPN: near normal



JMA - issued -
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (SW) .
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: S below elsewhere above normal PMSL: below normal (SW) .
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: SE below elsewhere above normal PMSL: above normal (SW).
29-12 TEMP: Eire below elsewhere above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W).

JMA - issued - 050918
28day mean - Temp England and Wales above elsewhere below PPN above normal PMSL above (W).
8S-14 TEMP: England above elsewhere below PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (W but H to S) .
15-21 TEMP: S above elsewhere below PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (W).
22-5oct TEMP: above normal PPN: N below elsewhere above PMSL: above normal (W) .

JMA - issued - 290818
28day mean - Temp above normal but cooler in NW PPN below normal PMSL above normal (W but slack in S).
1S-7S TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H but SW in far N).
8S-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H) .
15-28 TEMP: above normal but NW below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160918
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but S of England below normal
26-5o TEMP: E normal W below
PPN : below normal
6o-15 TEMP: Above normal but Eire normal or below
PPN : 60% prob above normal
16-25 TEMP: Above normal but Eire normal
PPN : Mostly near or below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110918
11-20 TEMP: NW normal SE half above
PPN : below normal but 40% prob N above
21-30 TEMP: above normal 60% below 40%
PPN : below normal but 40% prob S above
1o-10 TEMP: normal
PPN : Split above/below slightly favouring below in N
11-20 TEMP: W normal elsewhere above
PPN : S below elsewhere above

CMA 80 member Ensemble issued date 050918
6S-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
16-25 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : above normal but far N below normal
26-5oct TEMP: near but below normal in W
PPN : near normal or below
6o-15 TEMP: near but below normal in W
PPN : near normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010918
1S-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal 21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : near or below normal
1oct-10 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : above normal




September single issue forecasts issued late August.

CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
SEP above normal but N and W Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland normal
PPN :
SEP below normal


UKMO contingency - 280818
TEMP:
SEP: Above average. About 15% solutions below average and 75% above. Whole distribution shifted to warmer than average.
PPN: SEP: Below/well below averge more likely. Main cluster is below or well below normal but next cluster is +/- 25mm from average, with about 20% in the well above average range.




Next full month October 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 140918 - valid for October 2018
TEMP: Above normal (8/8)
PPN : N half above normal S normal perhaops below

NOAA - CFS2 - 060918 - valid for October 2018
TEMP: Above normal (6/6)
PPN : Below normal (4/6) normal with locally above in N and W (2/6)




ECMWF - monthly - 120918
TEMP:
OCT near normal locally above in NE Scotland
PPN:
OCT below normal



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
OCT normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
OCT N Scotland above elsewhere normal




ECMWF seasonal for October
TN1

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 080918
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data (nyr)

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME


Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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