SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue October 2017 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 171117. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 171117 - 22nd November to 16th December 2017 Changeable with rain and mild temepratures in the S but drier apart from some wintry showers (mainly hills) and colder in the N. Colder and drier weather extending into the S for time earky December before milder changeable types return.
UKMO 071117 - 11th November to 5tt December 2017 Changeable with rain or showers, especially in the N, also some snow for northern high ground but with short drier more settled spells. The settled spells becoming longer and more likely later in this period. Temperature near normal trending below normal. Icreasing risk of frosts.
UKMO 021117 - 7th November to 1st December 2017. North unsettled with rain or showers and hill snow although some drier spells are possible from time to time. South good chance of longer drier spells although not completely dry and late in period turning more generally unsettled. Temperatures near or a little below normal with risk of fog an frost in S during settled spells.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 161117
17-23 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above PPN: S drier but N above normal, near normal in middle parts
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: far S normal elsewhere above
1D-7D TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above
8D-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal

CFS2 Data 061117
7N-13 TEMP: Above PPN: N above normal S below elsewhere normal
14-20 TEMP: normal or below in S PPN: normal
21-27 TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal
28-4D TEMP: normal perhaps above in N PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 011117
2N-8N TEMP: NE Scotland above elsewhere below PPN: Below normal
9N-15 TEMP: N Scotland above elsewhere below PPN: Normal perhaps above in S and W
16-22 TEMP: mostly above PPN: normal or below
23-29 TEMP: England and Wales below elsewhere normal or above PPN: normal or below



JMA - issued - 161117
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL above normal (SW).
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (SW).
25-1D TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).
2D-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal except in far S above normal PMSL: above normal except in far S below normal (SW) .

JMA - issued - 091117
28day mean - Temp Above normal PPN Above normal PMSL below normal (W).
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal PMSL: well above normal (WNW) .
18-24 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: Below normal (weak cyclonic W).
25-8D TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: Below normal (weak W).

JMA - issued - 011117
28day mean - Temp Above normal PPN above normal PMSL N below elsewhere above (W) .
4N-10 TEMP: Below normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: S above elswhere below (strong W).
11-17 TEMP: Above normal PPN: S below elsewhere above PMSL: S above N below (strong W).
18-1D TEMP: Above normal PPN: S below elsewhere above PMSL: Above normal (WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 161117
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
26-5D TEMP: above normal but England may be below
PPN : below normal
6D-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 1 CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111117
21-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : uncertain 60/40 split wet/dry
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
1D-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N below elsewhere above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061117
6N-15 TEMP: N above S below
PPN : N above elsewhere below
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below but parts of England slightly above
26-5D TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
6D-12 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N and W Uk also Eire below, elsewhere above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 011117
1N-10 TEMP: above normal<
PPN : Scotland and NE England above elsewhere below
11-20 TEMP: England and Wales below elsewhere above
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S of England and Wales below elsewhere above
1D-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : Mixed but mostly sslightly above normal



November single issue forecast

UKMO Contingency 011117
TEMP:
NOVEMBER: Despite climate signals towards colder types (La Ninam NAO QBO and MJO - see Met Office text) models predict above normal temperatures. Aprox 60% above 30% below.(
PPN:
NOVEMBER: Although above average is the stated prefered solution, the distribution has reduced frequency of near normal rainfall and a similar split between above or below normal hence a similar risk for below normal rainfall.



CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
NOV Above normal
PPN :
NOV S Wales and S England below. Scotland, N Ireland and N half Eire bove elsewhere normal




CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated a weekly
TN1 TN4



Next full month December 2017



NOAA - CFS2 171117 valid for October 2017
TEMP: above normal 10/10
PPN : above normal 10/10 but England 9/10

NOAA - CFS2 - 071117 - valid for December 2017 (note skill low).
TEMP: above normal 5/5
PPN : above normal 5/5

NOAA - CFS2 - 021117 - valid for December 2017. Limited number of runs (11)
TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal



CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
DEC Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
DEC N Scotland, N half Eire and N Ireland above elsewhre normal





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated a weekly
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 071117
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME

Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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