SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue January 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 140219. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 140219 - 18 February to 14 March 2019 - May remain unsettled at times in the NW but elsewhere a good deal of dry wweather with near normal perhaps mild day time temperature but with risk of fog and frost in places. Probably more unsettled at times from the west later but with the E/SE likely to be drier and possibly colder with a small risk of snow as colder air meets milder Atlantic air in March.
UKMO 070219 - 12 February to 8 March 2019 - Unsettled with rain or showers especially in the N and W with near normal temperatures.In the S and E trending drier and colder. Later in Feb and into March uncertain whether colder types will dominate or milder weatherr from the weest with rain. Some risk of a wintry spell on transition from colder types.
UKMO 020219 - 7 February to 3 March 2019 - Trend to near normal or milder temperatures, though still a frost risk in places. Atlantic weather systems bringing unsettled and at times windy weather across the UK - hill snow in N. Later in February uncertain but may return to colder easterly types with rain/snow risk in S and less precipitation in the N.
UKMO 310119 - 5 February to 1st March 2019 - Less cold with rain and hill snow spreading from the west (may not reach some eastern areas). Drier and colder generally around mid month although the NW may remain unsettled. Later in February probably colder, possibly drier more widely but with wintry showers in places. Uncertain whether further pulses of milder wetter weather (hill snow) may spreading from the west.


CFS2 Data 130219
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps above in far N/NW
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
28-6M TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
7M-13 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal but risk above in S/SW

CFS2 Data 060219
7F-13 TEMP: above normal but N may be nearer normal PPN: mostly above normal
14-20 TEMP: S uncertain above or below? Elsewhere above normal. PPN: N may be above elsewhere normal or below
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal risk above in S perhaos below in far N
28-6M TEMP: above normal PPN: normal risk above in S perhaos below in far N

CFS2 Data 020219
2F-8F TEMP: Eire normal elsewhere below PPN: normal perhaos below in N
9F-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in Eire and SW UK
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but possibly above in Eire and SW UK
23-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal



JMA - issued - 130219
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong SW) but near normal in SE (lighter mean flow)
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW above normal SE below PMSL: NW below normal (SW) SE above (SW).
23-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: SE above normal elsewhere below (SW).
2M-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).

JMA - issued - 060219
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal but Scotland below PMSL below normal (SW).
9F-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (SW).
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but Scotland below PMSL: below normnal (SSW) .
23-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).


JMA - issued - 300119
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL S below normal N above normal (SW but slack in South implies variable patterns).
2F-8F TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal b ut Eire and N ireland above PMSL: above normal (WSW but slack in S).
9F-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but England above PMSL: N above S below (slack) .
16-1M TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but far SW may be above PMSL: below normal.



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110219
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-2M TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal but 40% chance of below in parts of England 3M-12 TEMP: slightly above but 20% risk below
PPN : 60% prob below in many areas
13-22 TEMP: slightly above but 20% risk below in SE
PPN : S 60% slightly above elsewhere 60% slightly below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060219
6F-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N Scotland above normal elsewhere 80% prob slightly below normal
26-7M TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : S UK and also SE Eire above normal elsewhere below normal
8M-17 TEMP: slightly above in S slightly below in N
PPN : mostly slightly above normal but Scotland 40% prob below elsewhere 20% prob below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010219
1F-10 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above nornal but N Scotland below
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal but 40% prob above normal in N and 20% in Eire.
21-2M TEMP: above normal
PPN : belpw normal but 20% prob Scotland N Ireland and Eire above normal
3M-12 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire may be below elsewhere slightly above normal






February single issue forecasts issued late January/early Feb.



UKMO contingency - 280119
TEMP:
February: UKMO "below normal more likely than above". Ensemble plots shifted toward below or well below normal roughly 70/30% colder/milders
PPN: UKMO suggest split solutions with S wwtter and N less so complicating the all UK solution.
February: UKMO "above average more likely than below". There are a number of solutions showning above normal BUT a larger number showing below normal.


CanSIPS 010219
TEMP:
FEB normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland
PPN :
FEB Below normal


Next full month MARCH 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 140219 - valid for March 2019
TEMP: above normal (5/7) normal (2/7)
PPN : above normal mostly (4/7) just the south (3/7) far N more likely to be normal or below.

NOAA - CFS2 - 070219 - valid for March 2019 -
TEMP: above normal (5/5)
PPN : above normal (1/5), S or W UK and Eire above normal (3/5) N half UK below normal (4/5) elsewhere normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 020219 - valid for March 2019 - limted data
TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
MAR above normal
PPN :
MAR normal


Graphcs
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

UKMO monthly 130219
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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