SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue May 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -040620- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 030620 - 8th June to 2nd July 2020 - Some rain or showers at times, more frequent in the north and less so in parts of the S and W. Trending to drier, more settled weather from late in June. Colder than average temperature to start the month warming towards normal in the south and later possibly warm in places in the south and near normal elsewher.
UKMO 270520 - 1st to 25th June 2020 - The dry weather looks set to end in places early in June with an increasing risk of rain or showers especally in the N and W as temperatures ease back to normal. The the south may remain warmer and drier and later in June return to settled warm weather.


CFS2 Data 020620
3J-9J TEMP: below normal PPN: E and E above normal elsewheere normal
10-16 TEMP: below normal PPN: N and W below elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: normal perhaps above in N PPN: normal locally below in NW
24-30 TEMP: normal perhaps above in N PPN: normal locally below in NW

CFS2 Data 260520
27-2J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
3J-9J TEMP: above normal but N may be normal PPN: below normal but N may be norml and risk of far S above
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in N
17-23 TEMP: above normal but E England normal PPN: normal perhaps below in N



ECMWF 010620
1J-7J TEMP: S Eire, S Wales and SW England noral elsewhere below PPN: NE Scotland above, below in Eire, N ireland SW Scotland S Wales and SE England elsewhere normal
8J-14 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal locally above in Cornwall N and W Wales W Coastal Scotland NE Scotland, N England and NE Midlands elsewhere normal
15-21 TEMP: below normal but central and E England normal PPN: above normal but NW Scotland below
22-28 TEMP: Midlands and SE England above elsewhere normal locally below in N and W PPN: Locally above in N Scotland elsewhere below normal
29-5J TEMP: Midlands and S of England normal elsewhere below PPN: locally normal but mostly below
6J-12 TEMP: Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal PPN: SW Eire and E and SE England below elsewhere mostly above

ECMWF 250520
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
1J-7J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
8J-14 TEMP: N below normal S above normal PPN: below normal
15-21 TEMP: N Normal S above PPN: NE and W Scotland and NW England above elsewhere below normal
22-28 TEMP: N Normal S above PPN: below normal
29-5J TEMP: S above, far north belo elsewhere normal PPN: below normal



JMA - issued - 040620
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL below normal (slack NW)
6J-12 TEMP: below normal PPN: Eire below elsewhere above normal PMSL: below normal (NW).
13-19 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (Slack) .
20-3J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: SW below elsewhere above normal (Slack WNW) .

JMA - issued - 280520
28day mean - Temp NW below SE above PPN below normal PMSL slack N above S below.
30-5J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal but far SW below (Slack E).
6J-12 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (NW).
13-26 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: SE above elsewhere below PMSL: N above S below (Slack WNW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010620
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : belopw normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : far N above elsewher below
21-30 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : far N above elsewhere below
1J-10 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : far N above elsewhere below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260520
26-4J TEMP: well above normal
PPN : below normal
5J-14 TEMP: well above normal
PPN : below normal except perhaos N Isles
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above S below
25-4Ju TEMP: well above normal
PPN : below normal but N Scotland 40% prob above normal


June 2020single issue forecasts issued late December/Early Jan.


UKMO contingency - 260520
June: Above or well above average -only about 5% of solutions are near or below average. Median value about 1.5C above average.
PPN:
June: Two clusters below average and one above, below average most likely about a 70% prob.


CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
JUN E England below, SW England, W Wales, Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
JUN Eastern two thirds of England above normal. Scotland, N Ireland and Eire below, elsewhere normal




Next full month July 2020 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 030620 - valid for June 2020
TEMP: above normal 3/3
PPN : normal or below normal 3/3



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
JUL SE England below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
JUL normal




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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