SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue May 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 200619 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 190619 - 24th June to 18th July - Unsettled wih rain or showers, some thundery but near normal temperatures. Becoming drier and more settled around turn of month and into July and warmer especially in the S - BUT some thundery outbreaks possible in the S and in the N becoming unsettled again.
UKMO 130619 - 18th June to 11th July - Although some showers, perhaps in the south also thundertorms may occur the overall trend is for drier and warmer weather BUT in July further unsettled weather may spread to many parts from the west or northwest.
UKMO 040619 - 9th June to 3rd July - Unsettled with some rain or showers and also cooler than normal temperatures but by about mid June becomeing mainly dry and settled across the north and perhaps further south too but in the south contnuing risk of showry rain outbreaks. Temperatures recovering to near normal but locally warm in the NW.



CFS2 Data 190619
20-26 TEMP: N below S above PPN: N normal or below elsewhere above normal
27-3J TEMP: Uncertain PPN: above normal
4J-10 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal or above
11-17 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal or below

CFS2 Data 120619
13-19 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
27-3J TEMP: normal PPN: normal
4J-10 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 030619
4J-10 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal
11-17 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal locally above in SW England
18-24 TEMP: uncertain above/below PPN: normal
25-1Jly TEMP: above normal PPN: normal




JMA - issued - 190619
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN N Scotland below elsewhere above PMSL . N Scotland above elsewhere below (W)
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: N Scotland below elsewhere above PMSL: S UK below elsewhere above (Slack NW)
29-5J TEMP: above normal but Eire and far W below PPN: below normal but England above PMSL: below normal (WNW) .
6J-19 TEMP: above normal but far W and SW below PPN: England and Wales below elsewhere above PMSL: below normal (WNW) .

JMA - issued - 120619
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (SW).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW) .
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: Eire and Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal PMSL: above normal (WNW).
29-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).

JMA - issued - 060619
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL S below normal N above (Weak WNW).
8J-14 TEMP: below normal PPN: N Scotland below elsewhere above normal PMSL: N Scotlnd above elsewhere below (Slack cyclonic).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW slack).
22-5Jly TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (Slack W).

JMA - issued - 300519
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL N below S above (slack WNW).
1J-7J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below (strong WNW))
8J-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (Slack ridge).
15-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal PMSL: above normal (Slack ridge).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 21st due 23rd
TEMP:
PPN :
TEMP:
PPN :
TEMP:
PPN :
TEMP:
PPN :

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160619
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% prob N above normal
26-5jly TEMP: near or above normal
PPN : N above S below
6K-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N may bne above
16-25 TEMP: above normal but 20% prob far N being below
PPN : 80% prob below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110619
11-20 TEMP: 60% above 20% below 20% near normal
PPN : S above elsewhere below
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : Eire and N Scotland 40% above normal elsewhere 80% prob below normal
1jul-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060619
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob above normal, 80% N Scotland but only 40% for Eire
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
26-5jly TEMP: above normal
PPN : N Scotland 60% prob above normal. Elsewhere below normal likely.
6jly-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : England 60% prob above normal elsewhere below normal more likely.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010619
1J-10 TEMP: NW below SE above
PPN : N above normnal elsewhere below
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% prob above in Eire and N Ireland
21-30 TEMP: above normal 80% prob
PPN : below normal but 40% prob above in N Scotland
1J-11 TEMP: 60% prob above 40% below normal
PPN : 80% prob below normal




June single issue forecasts issued late May/early June.



UKMO contingency - 260519
TEMP:
June: Above normal temperatures likely. Chance of below normal less than 10%. Most likely solutions sit at around 1 C above normal but a few forecast solutions are above the climatic range.
PPN:
June: Distribution of ensemble forecasts group at slightly below normal, near normal and above normal so no clear or simple message.



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
JUNE normal but NW UK and N half EIre below
PPN : normal but locally above in far S England and SW Scotland
JUNE




Next full month JULY 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 190619 - valid for July 2019
TEMP: above normal 6/6
PPN : above normal 2/6 normal 4/6

NOAA - CFS2 - 130619 - valid for July 2019
TEMP: England above normal 6/9 normal 3/9 elsewhere above normal 9/9
PPN : N: above 1/9 normal 7/9 below 1/9 S: above 1/9 normal 7/9 below 1/9

NOAA - CFS2 - 040619 - valid for July 2019
TEMP: Above normal (4/4)
PPN : N above S normal



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
JULY SW UK and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JULY normal but Eire above




Graphcs 100619
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFIS
EC



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4

WMO monthly to date 130619
EC




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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