SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue June 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 190719 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 190719 - 23rd to 16th August - The NW of the UK changeable with rain or showers and some drier spells, at times wind in the first half of the forecast, temperatures mostly near normal. The S/SE of UK some longer drier spells and a warm or hot period followed by chance of a thundery change to slightly more changeable weather though still with above average temperatures and some dry spells.
UKMO 110719 - 16 July to 9th August - Unsettled at times in the N and W with risk of rain or showers, at times thundery, with near normal or slightly above normal temperatures. This unsettled weather may spread to the S and E for a time later in the July but otherwise the S and E mainly dry and warm with a chance of hot temperatures developing in August.
UKMO 040719 - 9 July to 2nd August - In the north unsettled with rain at times perhaps more frquent than normal later in the period. In the south fine dry and warm to start then more unsettled with some rain but tending to be warmer and drier for periods.
UKMO 260619 - 1 to 25th July - Unsettled for a time mainly in N otherwise a good deal of dry weather with near normal and at times warm temperatures. Chance of hot and thundery in south later in July but also a risk of turning more widely changeable.


CFS2 Data 180719
19-25 TEMP: above normal PPN: S normal elsewhere above
26-1A TEMP: S above normal N normal PPN: normal chance locally below
2A-8A TEMP: S Eire and SW UK above elsewhere normal wih chance locally below PPN: normal locally below in Eire
9A-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal locally below in Eire and Scotland

CFS2 Data 100719
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but N normal
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps above in N
25-31 TEMP: well above normal PPN: normal
1A-7A TEMP: well above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 030719
4J-10 TEMP: W and SW above elsewhere below PPN: below normal
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
18-24 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above PPN: normal chance of above normal
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but chance of below normal



JMA - issued - 170719
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WNW).
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal but below in far SW PMSL: below (WSW).
27-2A TEMP: above normal PPN: Scotland below elsewhere above normal PMSL: N above S below (Slack WNW).
3A-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W) .

JMA - issued - 110719
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN Eire above elsewhere below PMSL S slightly below elsewhere slightly above (Slack NW).
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above but far S below (Slack NW).
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).
27-9A TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW) .

JMA - issued - 030719
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN S below elsewhere above PMSL below normal (WNW).
6J-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (W).
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW).
20-2A TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW).


CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160719
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal 60% below 40% - newest runs above normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
5A-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 40% prob below in N
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : Scotland above elsewhere below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110719
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above normal elsewhere below
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 60% prob England below
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above S uncertain above/below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060719
6J-15 TEMP: above normal but Scotland may be below
PPN : below normal btu 40% prob Eire above
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below 60% elsewhere above normal
5A-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010719
1J-10 TEMP: 80% prob above but far north Scotland may be below
PPN : below normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: N above S below 60% above 40%
PPN : above normal
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal



July single issue forecasts issued late June/early July.



UKMO contingency - 010719 (data 260619)
TEMP:
July: Above average most likely 70/30 split warmer/colder. Median solution about half a degree warmer than average
PPN:
July: Above average slightly more likely than below (60/40) but significant cluster at just below average.


CanSIPS
TEMP:
JUL above normal, well above in SE
PPN :
JUL N Scotland normal elsewhere below


Next full month AUGUST 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 180719 - valid for August 2019
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : N half of Scotland above normal 5/7. S of England, perhaps S Wales below normal 6/7. Otherwise normal.

NOAA - CFS2 - 110719 - valid for August 2019
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : normal perhaps below in S half of UK (4/7)

NOAA - CFS2 - 040719 - valid for August 2019
TEMP: above normal perhaps nomal in south
PPN : North normal or above normal but in the south mainly below normal



CanSIPS 010719
TEMP:
AUG above normal
PPN :
AUG Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below elsewhere normal



Graphcs will appear below as available.
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFIS
EC



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4






NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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