SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue June 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -020720- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.

UKMO 020720 - 7th July to 31th July 2020 - Unsettled start for many and cool in the north but trending less unsettled with longer drier spells and warmer temperatures for many.
UKMO 300620 - 4th July to 28th July 2020 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy at times but the E/SE of England becoming less unsettled and around mid month and a temporary drier spell may develop more widely except in the N/NW. A further drier spells is possible later in July. Temperature cool at times in the N and W elsewhere near average becoming warm in the drier spells.


CFS2 Data 010720
2J-8J TEMP: below normal PPN: N above S normal
9J-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: N normal S below
16-22 TEMP: N below S above PPN: N above S below
23-29 TEMP: N below S above PPN: N above S below

CFS2 Data 290620
30-6Jul TEMP: below normal PPN: S below N normal
7J-13 TEMP: SE normal elsewhere below PPN: Scotland normal elsewhere below
14-20 TEMP: N below S above PPN: normal locally below normal in N and W
21-27 TEMP: N normal S above PPN: normal locally below normal in N and W



ECMWF 290620
29-5Jl TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal but S and E normal
6J-12 TEMP: below normal but SE England above PPN: below normal
13-19 TEMP: N Scotland below parts of S England above but mostly normal PPN: below normal
20-26 TEMP: normal but SE England above PPN: below normal
27-2A TEMP: SE normal elsewhere below PPN: below normal but locally abiove in N Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland and NW England
3A-9A TEMP: N and NW below elsewhere normal locally abive in SE England PPN: Eire n Ireland and Wales above elsewhere mostly below normal

ECMWF 220620
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN : Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere mostly below
29-05 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN : W Scotland above elsewhere below
06-12 TEMP: above normal PPN : below normal
13-19 TEMP: normal but above in W and S PPN : below normal
20-26 TEMP: normal but above in S PPN: below normal
27-2A TEMP: normal but above in SE PPN: N Scotland above elsewhere below



JMA - issued - 010720
28day mean - Temp mostly below perhaps SE above PPN Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL N below S above (WNW).
4J-10 TEMP: mostly below perhaps SE above PPN: Ireland and Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL: N below S above (WNW).
11-17 TEMP: mostly below perhaps far S and SE above PPN: N above S below PMSL: NW above SE below (NW).
18- TEMP: mostly below perhaps SE above PPN: N above S below PMSL: below normal (WNW).

JMA - issued - 250620
28day mean - Temp Ireland below elsewhere above PPN above normal but SE England below PMSL below normal (WNW).
27-3J TEMP: NE Scotland above elsewhere below PPN: above normal but SE England below PMSL: below normal (strong WNW) .
4J-10 TEMP: above normal but Ireland below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal ( WNW) .
11-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above noral (NW) .



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010720
01-10 TEMP: below normal perhaps above in far S
PPN : N above S below
11-20 TEMP: near normal perhaps below in N and above in S
PPN : above normal 60% below normal 40%
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260620
26-5jul TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but S/SE 40% prob below
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but N Scotland above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but N Scotland 40% prob above normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

July 2020single issue forecasts issued late June/early July.


UKMO contingency - 290620
Jul: Above normal most likely. There are three main clusters: one below, one near normal and one above although overall about 70% of solutions are above normal
PPN:
Jul: Above normal or well above normal slightly more likely than below normal. Solutions are split and well spread across the climate range. Could imply would not take much of a shift to be a drier or wetter period.



CanSIPS 300620
TEMP:
JUL N and W normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JUL Eire, SE Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere below


Next full month August 2020 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 010720 - limited runs valid for August 2020
TEMP: above normal
PPN : normal but below in S/SW



CanSIPS 300620
TEMP:
AUG most of England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
AUG normal but below in NW Ireland, NW Scotland and SE England




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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