SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue August 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 080919 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 110919 - 16th September to 10th October - In the North, possibly only the northern half of Scotland, unsettled with rain or showers at times and normal to cool temperatures especially in any windy spells. Elsewhere a good deal of dry weather with warm daytime temperatures sowhat offset by chilly nights (some mist/fog posible) - perhaos becoming more generally unsettled later in September or early in October. UKMO 080919 - 13th September to 22th October - unsettled weather with cooler temperatures becoming confined to the north of UK as drier weather spreads to many parts from the south with warming temperatures but chilly night. Later in September and into October a return to more generally unsettled weather with average or cooler temperatures. UKMO 040919 - 10th September to 4th October - Unsettled/changeable theme with rain/showers at times - most frequentl in the north where it may be windy at times. In the south some drier interludes with atb times near normal temperatures but overall near or cooler than normal temperatures are likely.
UKMO 290819 - 3rd to 27th September - For the UK an unsettled period with rain or showers altjough parts of the south may see some drier spells and later in September a drier period may develop. Windy at times, mainly in the north. Near normal or rather cool temperatures but trending normal to above normal later.


CFS2 Data 110919
12-18 TEMP: S normal elsewhere below PPN: below normal but N Scotland above
19-25 TEMP: Scotland normal elsewhere above PPN: below normal but N Scotland above
26-2oct TEMP: N normal or below S above PPN: normal
3oct-9 TEMP: above normal or normal PPN: normal chance of below in N

CFS2 Data 040919
5S-11 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal locally above
12-18 TEMP: normal or below PPN: S normal or below N normal chance above in far N.
19-25 TEMP: normal or below PPN: N Uncertain elsewhere normal
26-2o TEMP: uncertain PPN: normal or above

CFS2 Data 280819
29-4S TEMP: normal but above in SW England PPN: above normal but in S normal
5S-11 TEMP: mostly below normal perhaps normal in N PPN: below normal perhaos normal in far N
12-18 TEMP: normal PPN: normal
19-25 TEMP: normal PPN: normal but risk of above in England and Wales



JMA - issued - 110919
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal except far N above normal PMSL Above normal (W).
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H over UK).
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: Scotland and N England above elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (Slack W).
28-11 TEMP: above normal PPN:above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW) .

JMA - issued - 050919
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal except far N above normal PMSL Above normal (W but slack in S).
7S-13 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal except far N above normal PMSL: N below S above (WNW).
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H over the S).
21-4o TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal except far N above normal PMSL: below normal (W).

JMA - issued - 280819
28day mean - Temp NW UK below elsewhere above normal PPN NW UK above normal elsewhere below PMSL above (WSW).
31-6S TEMP: below normal PPN: Eire and SW UK below elsewhere above normal PMSL: above normal (WNW).
7S-13 TEMP: W Eire below normal elsewhere above PPN: below normal PMSL: above (Slack, ridge).
14-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: NW beow SE above (WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110919
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N Scotland above
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below elsewhere above
1o-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 50/50 beow or above normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : England chance of above normal elsewhere below.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060919
6s-15 TEMP: mostly below normal but near or above in N Scotland
PPN : above normal but 40% prob southern areas below normal
16-25 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : Souuth 60% prob below elsewhere above normal more likely.
26-5oct TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : above normal but 20% prob below normal in N and 40% in South.
6oct-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 80% prob above normal / 20% prob below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010919
1S-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : far S below elsewhere above
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but England many be normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
1o-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260818
26-4S TEMP: above normal
PPN : S and E mainly above normal elsewhere mixed signal above/below normal
5S-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
25-4oct TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob above normal




September single issue forecasts issued late August/Early September.



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP:
SEP N below S above elsewhere normal
PPN :
SEP NW Scotland above elsewhere below




UKMO contingency - 290819
TEMP:
Sep: Above normal possibly more than 1 degree above normal (less than 20% chance of below normal)
PPN:
Sep: Main grouping is near average +/-20mm but similar probs for above or below normal




Next full month Octber 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 110919 - valid for October 2019
TEMP: above normal 6/6
PPN : normal most areas 5/6 but chance of above mainly for England and Wales 1/6

NOAA - CFS2 - 050919 - valid for October 2019
TEMP: above normal 5/5
PPN : above normal 3/5 normal 2/5



CanSIPS 070919
TEMP:
OCT Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
OCT normal locally below in Eire, N ireland nd NE Scotland




Graphcs will appear below as available.

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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