SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


Follow @T2mike
Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue MAY 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 210618. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 210618 - 25th June to 19th July 2018 - A good deal of fine dry and warm or very warm weather developing (chance hot for a time inland) although N Scotland may see less warm a changeavble weather at times and there is a risk that later in July unsettled less warm weather spreads to more N/NW and some west areas.
UKMO 170618 - 22nd June to 16th July 2018 - In the NW of UK although a good deal of dry weather at times some more changeable interludes are likely with some rain. Elsewhere most likely long dry periods. Temperatures warm of very warm (this category allows up to about 5C above normal) but nearer normal in the N during changeable periods.
UKMO 070618 - 12th June to 6th July 2018 - After a mainly dry start with above normal temperatures, away from N Sea coastal areas, though with a few thundery showers (mainly in the S) a change to westerlytypes with rain or showers at times. Although cooler for many, temperatures mostly near or a little above normal (and warmer near N Sea coasts). A Return to more settled weather again with a few showers in the S is likely late June and into July.
UKMO 030618 - 8th June rd to 2nd July 2018 - A good deal of dry weather to start (though with risk of thundery rain in the S) and still some problems with coastal mist at first. Warm in places away from windward coasts. Trending more unsettled, with near normal temperatures, for a time from mid June though still with some dry spells. Late June into July increased chance of warm and dry weather spreading from the south.
UKMO 290518 - 3rd to 27th June 2018 - A good deal of dry and warm weather but cooler with mist near some mainly E coasts and southern areas continue to be at risk of thundery outbreaks at first for the start of June. Becoming slightly changeable with some rain or showers for many by about mid June with nearer normal or slightly above normal temperature but still some good dry spells developing and possibly warm spells especially in the S.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 200618
21-27 TEMP:above normal but far N normal or below PPN: Below normal except far N normal
28-4Jly TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal
5J-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal

12-18 TEMP: above normal but S normal PPN: N below normal elsewhere normal

CFS2 Data 160618
17-23 TEMP: N below S (of 54N) above PPN: S below N normal or above
24-30 TEMP: N normal perhaps above S above PPN: normal or below
1J-7J TEMP: normal but above in S PPN: normal or below
8J-14 TEMP: uncertain above/below normal PPN: normal or below

CFS2 Data 060618
7J-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but far S above
14-20 TEMP: normal or below PPN: N above normal elsewhere normal
21-27 TEMP: mainly above normal PPN: normal or below
28-4JL TEMP: mainly above normal PPN: normal or below

CFS2 Data 030618
4J-10 TEMP: above or well above normal PPN: Below normal
11-17 TEMP: above or well above normal PPN: normal
18-24 TEMP: normal locally above in NE and chance below in Central and E England PPN: N and NW above elsewhere normal
25-1JL TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal



JMA - issued - 200618
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL Above normal (NW).
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H).
30-6J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H over N).
7J-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: belopw normal PMSL: above normal (Weak NW).

JMA - issued - 130618
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal but far N Scotland above normal PMSL above normal (weak NW).
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but N Scotland above normal PMSL: above normal (fresh NW) .
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but far N Scotland above normal PMSL: above normal (WNW) .
30-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: below PMSL: below normal (still ridged weak WNW).

JMA - issued - 060618
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WNW) .
9J-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: S above normal elsewhere below PMSL: below normal (Slack).
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: S below normal N above PMSL: N below and S above (WSW) .
23-6JL TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW) .

JMA - issued - 300518
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN SW Eire and SW UK above elsewhere below normal PMSL SW Eire and SW UK below normal elsewhere above (Slack W).
2J-8J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: S normal elsewhere above (slack) .
9J-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: Western areas above normal elsewhere below normal PMSL: below normal (weak W) .
16-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: England and Wales except far SW below normal elsewhere above PMSL: above normal (weak W).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 190618
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below N above
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : far N above elsewhere below
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below N above
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160618
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
26-5jly TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above normal
elsewhere below
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N Scotland above
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110618
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but W and NW UK and Eire below
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above but chance of below in S
1Jly-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but chance of above in far N/NW
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060618
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal 20% risk above in far S
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below norma; but 20% above in far N Scotland
26-5JL TEMP: above normal
PPN : S and far N 60% chance above elsewhere 60% chance below
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but N and W may be above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010618
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
11-20 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : below normal but far N above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal

PPN : mostly below normal
1J-10 TEMP: near normal or below (60%) prob of above 40%
PPN : Risk of above normal in places mainly N Ireland, Eire, N England and S Scotland elsewhere below normal more likely.



June single issue forecasts issued late May.

UKMO contingency 290518
TEMP:
June: Above average more likely than below. Distribution shifted towards above average median value about 0.5 deg above normal. Only a 25% chance of below normal.
PPN:
June: Below normal more likely than above. Roughly 40/60 split in favour of below average although there is a cluster of solutions above normal outweighed by the clusters below or well below normal which might imply different solutions across the UK that a single figure cannot resolve.



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
JUN Above normal
PPN :
JUN normal but above in all S of England and below in N Eire N Ireland Scotland and N of England




Next full month July 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 data 18 to 20 June valid for July 2018
TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Below normal

NOAA - CFS2 data 8th to 17th June valid for July 2018
TEMP: Near normal most likely. 30% chance above in N 40% in S, 20% chance below normal in Eire.
PPN : Below normal but about 30% chance of near normal and 30% chance of above normal in far S of England.

NOAA - CFS2 4-7th June 2018 valid for July 2018
TEMP: N above (4/4) S above 2/4 S normal 2/4
PPN : mostly normal chance of below in places.

NOAA - CFS2 data 1-3 June valid for July 2018
TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Below normal



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
JUL Above normal locally normal W Eire
PPN :
JUL normal but above in NW and W Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire (except SE)




ECMWF seasonal for July
TN1

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 070618
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data (4d090618)

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME

Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

Comments or questions please E mail


Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data