SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue July 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -080820- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.

UKMO 060820 - 11th August to 4th September 2020 - Initially warm or very weather weather, and mainly dry - though with a risk of some thundertorms in the South and East - is likely to be replaced later in August by fresher weather with a little showery rain at times and nearer normal temperatures which may spread from the NW. This change may be rather erratic.
UKMO 020820 - 7th to 31st August 2020 - The NW of the UK probably unsettled at times with rain or showers and near normal temperatures. The SE of the UK a good deal of dry and warm, locally very warm weadther though with some rain or showers spreading from the W a few times.


CFS2 Data 050820
6A-12 TEMP: S above N normal locally below PPN: S above normal N below
13-19 TEMP: above normal, esecially so in England and Wales PPN: S above normal N normal
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
27-2S TEMP: S/SW above elsewhere normal PPN: normal or below

CFS2 Data 010820
2A-8A TEMP: S England normal elsewhere below PPN: normal but Ireland above
9A-15 TEMP: S half above, N below PPN: ireland normal elsewhere below
16-22 TEMP: N below S above PPN: normal but N Scotland above
23-29 TEMP: N below S above PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 220720
23-29 TEMP: below normal PPN: mostly above normal but far N normal and the far S possibly below normal
30-5A TEMP: below normal PPN: Eire and the N above elsewhere normal
6A-12 TEMP: Wales and S half England normal elsewhere below PPN: England and Wales below elsewhere normal
13-19 TEMP: Wales and S half England normal elsewhere below PPN: normal



ECMWF 030820
3A-9A TEMP: above normal PPN: N above S below
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: S above N below
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly below normal b ut locally above in SE England
24-30 TEMP: above normal but W Scotland normal PPN: W and NW Scotland above elsewhere below normal
31-6S TEMP: S above N normal PPN: mostly below but locally abopve along S coastal areas
7S-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly below normal

ECMWF 270720
27-2A TEMP: below normal but SE England above PPN: England and Wales mainly below along with NW Scotland elsewhere above normal
3A-9A TEMP: mostly below normal PPN: normal locally above in W Wales and SW England
10-16 TEMP: normal but S/SE England above PPN: below normal
17-23 TEMP: below normal locally normal in SE England PPN: mostly below normal but above in Eire and N of England
24-30 TEMP: normal locally above in SE England PPN: above in band from Wales across Midlands and N England, also NW Eire otherwise mostly below normal
31-6S TEMP: normal loally above in S England PPN: below normal



JMA - issued - 050820
28day mean - Temp above normal but NW below PPN above normal but far N below PMSL belopw normal (Slack W).
8A-14 TEMP: above normal but NW below PPN: Eire, S half of England and Wales above, elsewhere below PMSL: Above normal but far S below (slack).
15-21 TEMP: above normal but NW below PPN: S half of England and Wales above elsewhere below PMSL: below (slack).
22-4S TEMP: above normal but NW below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W).

JMA - issued - 290720
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal but England and Wales below PMSL belopw normal (WSW).
1A-7A TEMP: above normal or normal PPN: above normal but SE below PMSL: below normal (WSW) .
8A-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (Slack).
15-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but far NW above PMSL: above normal but N Scotland below (W).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060820
6A-15 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal or below elsewehere 80% prob above normal
PPN : Ireland above normal elsewhere 60% prob below 40% prob above normal
16-25 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland 60% prob normal or below elsewehere above normal
PPN : below normal
26-4S TEMP: N and W normal or below S and E above normal
PPN : below normal
5S-14 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal or below elsewhere above normal
PPN : below normal


CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010820
1A-10 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N above S below
11-20 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N above S below
21-30 TEMP: below normal but normal or above in S
PPN : below normal
31-9S TEMP: England normal perhaops above elsewhere below normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260720
26-4A TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal but 40% below normal in S
5A-14 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N Scotland above elsewhere below normal
15-24 TEMP: below normal but S England above
PPN : below normal
25-3S TEMP: Ireland below normal elsewhere above
PPN : below normal




August 2020single issue forecasts issued late June/early July.

UKMO contingency - 270720
TEMP:
AUG: Fairly strong signal for near normal temperatures. Distribution is fairly evenly split either side of average perhaps just favouring above normal.

PPN:
AUG: Three perhaps four clusters, two below and two above normal. The strongest cluster is well above average. Above average rainfall seems more likely but may bot be uniform across the UK.


CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
AUG Ireland normal elsewhere above
PPN :
AUG Ireland and W Scotland above, SE England below elsewhere normal



Next full month September 2020 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 060820 - valid for September 2020
TEMP: N and W normal, S and E above normal
PPN : 3 out of 4 days data have above average rain in the NW and 2 out of 4 in the SE.

NOAA - CFS2 - 020820 - valid for September 2020
TEMP: normal or above
PPN : above normal



CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
SEP England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
SEP N half Scotland above, SW of UK and SE England below elsewhere normal



Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2

NASA 050320
NASA

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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