SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue January 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -260320- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 250320 - 30th March to 23rd April 2020 - Colder than average and mainly dry weather for much of the S and W of the UK but showers at times wintry may affect parts of the NE and E. Trending more unsettled / showery form the NW before mid April but with a return to average temperatures and later in the S and SE warmer than average.
UKMO 180320 - 23rd March to 16th April 2020 - The NW of the UK and parts of the south may see some rain at times. For most parts there will be a good deal of dry weather and this will extend to other areas for periods. Initally increased frost risk with near or slightly colder than average temeraures but recovering generally to near average later in March and for April.
UKMO 130320 - 17th March to 10th April 2020 - Although the NW may see some unsettled weather and this could spread south for a time the predominant weather is likely to be drier and more settled. Frosts likely ton be more frequent but some warmer sunny afternoons are possible making temperatures near or above normal although E coasts may turn cold and the far north may also start colder.
UKMO 040320 - 9th March to 2nd April 2020 - The unsettled and at times windy weather is likely to continue with spells of rain or showers, falling as snow at times chiefly on northern hills. A more to less unsettled and in the south drier weather looks to be delayed until late in March. Temperatures at times above/below but ending up aroud average forn the period but in the possible more settled and drier spell frost may become more frequent.
UKMO 270210 - 2nd to 26th March 2020 - Unsettled with rain or showers and snow but this mainly for northern hills - windy at times - mostly above normal tremperatures but colder at times in the north. Around mid-March trending drier and more settled in the south with return of frost and fog risk but probably remaining unsettled in the north.


CFS2 Data 250320
26-1A TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
2A-8A TEMP: below normal PPN: normal
9A-15 TEMP: normal or below PPN: mostly normal
16-22 TEMP: normal perhaps above in S and below in far N PPN: mostly normal

CFS2 Data 180320
19-25 TEMP: below normal PPN: W and N above elsewhere normal
26-1A TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or below
2A-8A TEMP: mostly below PPN: normal but chance of below
9A-15 TEMP: parts of N and W below elsewhere normal PPN: normal but chance of above in N

CFS2 Data 120320
13-19 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: NW above SE normal
20-26 TEMP: N may be above elsewhere normal or above PPN: normal or below
27-2A TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal chance below in S
3A-9A TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal chance above in far S

CFS2 Data 040320
5M-11 TEMP: SE above NW normal or below PPN: above normal perhaps normal in N
12-18 TEMP: far SE above elsewhere normal but NW below PPN: above normal perhaps normal in S
19-25 TEMP: England and Wales above elsewhere normal or below PPN: normal chance of below in south
26-1A TEMP: mostly normal perhaos above but risk below in N Ireland and Eire PPN: normal chance of below in south

CFS2 Data 260220
27-4M TEMP: NW below elsewhere normal PPN: S and W above N and E normal
5M-11 TEMP: NW below elsewhere normal PPN: normal but NW above
12-18 TEMP: mostly above normal PPN: N UK and Eire normal elsewhere below normal
19-25 TEMP: mostly above normal PPN: N normal elsewhere below normal



ECMWF
23-29 TEMP: normal but all S and E England below but E Scotland above PPN: NW Scotland abov elsewhere below
30-5A TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
6A-12 TEMP: normal but Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England below PPN: normal
13-19 TEMP: E and S England normal elsewhere below PPN: above normal
20-26 TEMP: normal bnut W Eire below and E England above PPN: above normal
27-3M TEMP: normal PPN: N above S below

ECMWF 160320
16-22 TEMP: England and Wales normal elsewhere below PPN: normal
23-29 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal PPN: normal but S below and NW Scotland above
30-5A TEMP: normal but below in Wales, Midlands, N Ireland and Eire PPN: below normal
6A-12 TEMP: normal but below N Ireland and Eire PPN: below normal
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in NW
20-26 TEMP: normal but above in SE Scotland and E of England PPN: normal

ECMWF 090320
9M-15 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: above normal
16-22 TEMP: W and NW normal elsewhere above PPN: Wales, W Eire NW England and W Scotland above elsewhere normal
23-29 TEMP: W Eire below, E UK above elsewhere normal PPN: NW above elsewhere normal or below
30-5A TEMP: Eire, N Ireland, Wales, SW UK below elsewhere normal PPN: mostly below normal but N half Scotland above
6A-12 TEMP: normal locally above in far SE PPN: Eire N ireland S Scotland and N England normal elsewhere above
13-19 TEMP: normal but SE third of England above PPN: SE England below elsewhere mostly above

ECMWF 020302
2M-8M TEMP: normal locally below in N Eire and N Ireland PPN: normal locally above in Wales, W Eire and S of England
9M-15 TEMP: normal locally above in SE England PPN: above normal but NE Scotland normal
16-22 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal PPN: normal but above in SW England, NW England, W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire
23-29 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal PPN: below normal
30-5A TEMP: normal locally above in SE England PPN: well below normal
6A-12 TEMP: PPN:

ECMWF 240220
24-1M TEMP: NW below elsewhere normal PPN: above normal
2M-8M TEMP: S of UK normal elsewhere below PPN: above normal but N normal
9M-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW above normal elsewhere below
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW above normal elsewhere below
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
30-5A TEMP: N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal PPN: N above normal S below
6A-12 TEMP: Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal PPN: above normal but parts of Devon and Central Southern England below



JMA - issued - 250320
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (Slack) .
28-3A TEMP: below normal PPN: well below normal PMSL: well above normal (slack but E in south).
4A-10 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal but normal in S (slack) .
11-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: Ireland below normal elsewhere above PMSL: N below elsewhere above (NW).

JMA - issued - 180320
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal but far N Scotland above PMSL above normal (W in north elsewhere H).
21-27 TEMP: N above S below PPN: N above elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (SW strong in far N slack in S).
28-3M TEMP: N above elsewhere below PPN: below normal PMSL: well above (H).
4M-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (Slack W).

JMA - issued - 110320
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above or well above normal (WSW).
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: S below elsewhere above PMSL: N below S above (strong WSW).
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: far N above elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (SW slack in S) .
28-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above normal (Slack H).

JMA - issued - 040320
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN NW above SE below PMSL S below N above (WSW).
7M-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: far S above normal elsewhere below well below in N (Gale W).
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: far N above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (WSW).
21-3A TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (WSW).



CMA 80 member Ensemble issued date 260320 (data to 25th)
26-4A TEMP: N above elsewhere below
PPN : below normal
5A-14 TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal
15-24 TEMP: mostly below normal
PPN : below normal but the N may be above
25-4M TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Eire and N Ireland below normal elsewhere above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210320
21-30 TEMP: 40% below 60% above
PPN : below normnal but N Scotland above
31-9A TEMP: 60% below 40% above
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal
20-29 TEMP: W 60% prob below E 60% prob above
PPN : above normal but 40% prob below in Eire and SW of UK



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160320
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal b ut N Scotland may be above
5A-14 TEMP: 60% above 40% near normal
PPN : below normal 60% above normal 40%
15-24 TEMP: SE above elsewhere normal or below normal
PPN : below normal 80% prob.

NOTE return to 20 members per.
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110320
11-20 TEMP: below normal but far S may be above
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N and W above elsewhere below
31-9A TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 76 member Ensemble issued date 060320
6M-15 TEMP: Slightly below
PPN : slightly above 40% slightly below 60%
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
26-4A TEMP: slightly above 60% slightly below 40%
PPN : below normal
5A-14 TEMP: slightly above 40% slightly below 60%
PPN : below normal

CMA 76 member Ensemble issued date 010320 NOTE from 29th February 16 members per day not 20.
1M-10 TEMP: below normal except perhaps S coastal England
PPN : N below S most likely above
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
31-9A TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : below normal




March 2020single issue forecasts issued late December/Early Jan.



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
MAR above normal
PPN :
MAR below normal




UKMO contingency - 270220
TEMP:
Mar: Above normal very likely, less than 10% of solutions normal or below with the main cluster one to one and a half degrees C above normal.
PPN:
Mar: There are two main clusters one above normal and one below normal which might imply a split in solutions or variation in storm tracks taking rain further north or further south. UKMO states slightly high probs for below normal rainfall.



Next full month April2020 (number of runs) [running total]





NOAA - CFS2 - 250320 - valid for April 2020
TEMP: normal 4/7 above 3/7
PPN : normal but below normal in S 2/7 and above normal in N 1/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 180320 - valid for April 2020
TEMP: England and Wales above 4/6 normal 2/6, elsewhere normal 6/6
PPN : normal but N above 3/6 and SW above 2/6

NOAA - CFS2 - 120320 - valid for April 2020
TEMP: above normal 8/8
PPN : S below normal 5/8 far north above normal 2/8 elsewehere/otherwise normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 040320 - valid for April 2020
TEMP: above normal 4/4
PPN : mostly below normal but north could be normal



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
APR above normal but W Eire normal
PPN :
APR below normal but NW Scotland normal


Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2

NASA 050320
NASA


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC

WMO monthly
WMO




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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