SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue December 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 180119. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 180119 - 23 January to 16 February 2019 - Generally cold, frosts at times. Some showery snow sleet or rain spreading from the east. Risk of longer spells of rain at times in NW, falling as snow over hills and perhaps lower levels at times. Risk in February of rain sleet and or snow spreading across the south of UK - northern extent uncertain as are areas for snow risk, though not confinded to hills.
UKMO 150119 - 21 January to 14 February 2019 - A cold period is likely with more frequent frosts. Some unsettled seplls bringing windy weather with rain and hill snow are likely, some snow possibly to lower levels too. Later parts of N/NW becoming drier but the south may remain more changeable with increased but uncertain snow risk in early February.
UKMO 080119 - 12 January to 5 February 2019 - Unsettled with rain or showers and hill snow, mainly in the N but at times further south but the south likely to see the best of the drier weather. Some milder spells but often near normal and later into February turning colder.
UKMO 020119 - 7 to 31 January 2019 - Initially a good deal of dry weather, cloudy at times with a little drizzle in the North. Risk of fog and frost especially in South. Becoming wetter and windier in the north around mid month with snow mainly on hills. Elsewhere still mainly dry but with less frost and fog risk and trending milder for a time again in South. Later in January uncertain risk of much colder weather with increased risk of fog frost and snow.
UKMO 271218 - 31 December 2018 - 23 January 2019 - Unsettled weather in the north/NW with rain and hill snow at times, this probably streading further south (perhaps in second sweek of January) bring colder windier weather to more areas and the risk of snow to lower levels in the North. Prior to this change other areas likely to be drier and although milder some fog and frost are also likely at times.


CFS2 Data 150119
16-22 TEMP: below normal but N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal PPN: below normal but N normal
23-29 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal
30-5F TEMP: uncertain prob below normal PPN: normal but above in SW
6F-12 TEMP: normal chance locally below PPN: normal in N above in S

CFS2 Data 080119
8J-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
15-21 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal
22-28 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
29-4F TEMP: below normal PPN: normal but above in S

CFS2 Data 010119
2J-8J TEMP: far N above elsewhere below PPN: below normal
9J-15 TEMP: England and Walesd below elsewhere above PPN: below normal
16-22 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal
23-29 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal locally above



JMA - issued - due by 18th
28day mean - Temp Below normal PPN N below S above PMSL below normal or well below in S (W very slack flow).
19-25 TEMP: Below normal PPN: Below normal but SW above PMSL: S below or well below N slightly below (SLACK SE) .
26-1F TEMP: Below normal PPN: Below normal but SW above PMSL: Far N above S below or well below (E).
2F-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: nelow normal (SW).

JMA - issued - 090119
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL below normal (NW).
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (Strng WNW) .
19-25 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (NW).
26-8F TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but above in S PMSL: below normal (NNW weak).

JMA - issued - 020119
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (SW) .
5J-11 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL above norma; (H over S W in N).
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (strong WSW) .
19-1F TEMP: above normal PPN below normal but risk of above in far SW PMSL: N above S below (SW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160119
16-25 TEMP: most areas below normal locally 40% prob near normal in SW of UK
PPN : below normal
26-4F TEMP: 60% prob near or above and 40% belopw (newer runs are below)
PPN : below normal
5F-14 TEMP: near or above
PPN :N below normal S above
15-24 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : near or below normal but small risk of abve in S

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110119
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% above in far N Scotland
21-30 TEMP: near or below normal (below in England)
PPN :below normal but 40% above in far N Scotland
31-9F TEMP: 60% below 40% near normal
PPN : below normal but 20% chance above in SE England
10-19 TEMP: below normal but in England 60% below and 40% above
PPN : belopw normal but 40% prob above in S

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060119
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
16-25 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N above elsewhere below
26-4F TEMP: near normal
PPN : below normal
5F-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : NW below normal elsewhere above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010119
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but far S below
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9F TEMP: above normal
PPN : S above normal 80% N below normal




JANUARY single issue forecasts issued late December.



ECMWF weekly 060119
TEMP:
7-13J S normal elsewhere above normal
14-20 SE Eire SE England and NE Scotland near normal elsewhere above
21-27 below or well below
28-3F below or well below
PPN:
7-13J drier or mouch drier than normal
14-20 NW slightly above elsewhere normal or below
21-27 N Ireland and NE Eire Wales and England except the NW average elsewhere below
28-3F W and NW parts and SW Wales below , elsewhere average but NE Midlands above

ECMWF weekly 311218
TEMP:
31-6J SW UK below W Eire and Scotland above elsewhere normal
7-13 SE England colder, SW England S Eire and E England normal, elsewhere above normal
14-20 Wales and SW slightly milder elsewhere normal
21-27 S slightly milder elsewhere normal
PPN:
31-6J E slightly drier elsewhere much drier than normal
7-13 slightly drier
14-20 NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal especially in W
21-27 W EIre and NW Scotland drier elsewhere mainly above average



UKMO contingency - 191218
TEMP: January: Slightly colder than average. Roughly 60/40 split in solutions colder/warmer.
PPN: January: Met Office says below more likely then above. BUT there are three cluster two above and one below so it is not a clear cut and there is a large cluster near average.


CanSIPS 010119
TEMP:
JAN above normal
PPN :
JAN below normal


Next full month FEBRUARY 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 160118 - valid for February 2019
TEMP: NW UK and Eire 7/8 colder 1/8 normal SE UK and Eire 6/8 colder 2/8 normal
PPN : North below normal 8/8, South above normal 8/8, middle variable area normal.

NOAA - CFS2 - 080119 - valid for February 2019
TEMP: Below normal 1/6 normal 5/6 latest output in colder.
PPN : Above normal but N normal or below 6/6

NOAA - CFS2 - 020119 - limited data - valid for February 2019
TEMP: near normal locally above in SW above normal
PPN : normal but below in N



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
FEB Eire N Irelnd and N half Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
FEB below normal




ECMWF monthly 121018
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME


Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME

NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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