SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue August 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 101019 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 101019 - 14th October to 7th November - Typical unsettled type with spells of wet and windy weather especially in the N and W, some drier spells but mainly shorted lived. Windy at times. Temperatures near normal but feeling colder in stromng winds. Chance of frost not ruled out in any overnight drier calmer interludes.
UKMO 031019 - 8th October to 1st November - Unsettled start and end to this period with rain or showers and at times windy weather but for a period around the middle of October a drier spell espeically in the south. Temperatures near or a shade above average but some colder nights possible during the drier period.
UKMO 260919 - 1st to 25th October - Unsettled start for all with wet and at times windy weather although parts of the souuth and east may see some drier periods. Towards mid month the S and E should see mainly dry weather and this may extend further north at tyimes although the NW may remain unsettled. Temperatures near or slightly above normal but with developing colder night and some fog risk as the weather settles ijn the S and E.


CFS2 Data 091019
10-16 TEMP: normal perhaps above in S and below in N PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: normal or below normal PPN: normal or above normal
24-30 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal but above in W
31-6N TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 021019
3oct-9 TEMP: normal but above in W and N PPN: S normal elsewhere above
10-16 TEMP: normal or above PPN: N Scotland above, S of England below elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: normal PPN: normal
24-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in W and N



JMA - issued - 091019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WSW).
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (strong WSW).
19-25 TEMP: above normal but Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).
26-8N TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but western areas Eire and UK above PMSL: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere above (SW).

JMA - issued - 021019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WSW).
5o-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W) .
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW) .
19-1N TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW) .



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111019 due 13th
TEMP:
PPN :
TEMP:
PPN :
TEMP:
PPN :
TEMP:
PPN :

WEB LINK checked web ok again 081019
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061019
06-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: N and W above normal S and E (mainly England) 60% prob below normal
PPN : North 60% prob above normal S below normal
26-4N TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N above
5N-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 20% risk above in S Eire or S England


CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date due 011019 updated 081019
01-10 TEMP: S above N below
PPN : above normal but far N Scotland below
11-20 TEMP: N Scotland below elsewhere above
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but Scotland 40% prob below
31-09 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S UK above elsewhere below




October single issue forecasts issued late September/Early October.



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
OCT N Ireland, England and Wales above, N Scotland and S Eire below elsewhere normal
PPN : above normal but far N Scotland normal
OCT



UKMO contingency - 021019
TEMP:
October: Strong indication for above average (more than 1C anomaly), only 20% prob below average
PPN:
October: Distribution shifted towards wetter than average, two clusters above average one near average and one below average. Chance of below average 30% or less.



Next full month November 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



NOAA - CFS2 - 091019 - valid for November 2019
TEMP: above normal (6/6)
PPN : NW above normal 5/6 all areas 2/6 otherwise near normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 031019 - valid for November 2019
TEMP: above normal
PPN : normal but a chance of above in North and Below in the South.



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
NOV above normal but normal in much of Eire
PPN :
NOV W Scotland normal locally above elsewhere below normal




Graphcs will appear below as available.


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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