SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue January 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 220218. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 220218 - 20th February to 16th March 2018 - Frequent frosts. Mostly cold or very cold with a good eal of dry weather especially in the NW/W but a snow risk for the East and at times the South and some central ares - chance heavy snow early March in S. Chance of some milder weather with rain into the SW of UK briefly but with snow omn northern edge in early March and again towards the end of the period. Cold and at times strong winds from an easterly point for much of the period.
UKMO 150218 - 20th February to 16th March 2018 - Although temperatures may be near normal for a time, the north may be colder and more generally colder temperatures are l;ikely to develop until milder weather returns before mid March. Unsettled weather in the N but a more gnerally dry period is expected early in period. Unsettled weather may affect the S and E later in Feb/early March bringing snow in places. Milder and wetter weather following into the SW before mid March.
UKMO 080218 - 13th February to 9th March 2018 - Main indication in for colder than average weather with only shorter milder interval these mainly in the S. A more settled period is likely, especially in the S in the second half of February. Otherwise unsettled spells with rain/snow/wintry showers. Increased frost and ice risk.
UKMO 020218 - 7th February to 2 March 2018 - Colder with some rain or showers spreading from west turning to snow over hills and to lower levels too as the frontal systems progress eastwards stalls. Trend to drier period around middle section of month risk of fog/freezing fog and widespread frost. Later in Feb and into March more usettled again perhaps with brief milder spells
UKMO 290118 - 3 to 27 Feb 2018 - Unsettled start mild in S but colder in N with wintry showers. Soon turning drier and less mild/colder weather into the south, and this may extend further north in the middle of the month. Some wintry showers/snow flurries may occur in the East. Later in period probable return to milder/changeable weather with wind and rain and hill sbnow for the north.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 200218
21-27 TEMP: Below normal chance normal in NW PPN: Below normal
28-6M TEMP: Below normal PPN: Below normal in N above in S elsewher normal
7M-13 TEMP: Below normal PPN: normal but chance above in S
14-20 TEMP: Below normal chance normal PPN: normal but chance above in S

CFS2 Data 140218
15-21 TEMP: Eire above, Scotland below below normal PPN: Above normal
22-28 TEMP: Below normal PPN: below normal
1M-7M TEMP: Below normal PPN: S normal elsewhere below
8M-14 TEMP: Below normal PPN: normal but perhaps above in SW Eire and SW UK.

CFS2 Data 070218
8F-14 TEMP: below normal PPN: S normal elsewhere above
15-21 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal
22-28 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal
1M-7M TEMP: below normal perhaos normal in N PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 010218 Note output from late January gone for colder solutions?
2F-8F TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
9F-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or above
16-22 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or below
23-1M TEMP: below normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 240118
25-31 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal in N half elsewhere normal
1F-7F TEMP: Above normal PPN: Normal in N elsewhere below normal
8F-14 TEMP: N Scotland above elsewhere normal PPN: Normal perhaos above in far N
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in S



JMA - issued - 210218
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN S above elsewhere below normal PMSL far N normal elsewhere below (slack S) .
24-2M TEMP: well below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above normal but below to SW (strong ESE).
3M-9M TEMP: below normal PPN: S above elsewhere below normal PMSL: below normal (S).
10-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).

JMA - issued - 140218
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above PMSL below normal SW.
17-23 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal especially in N (Slack SW in N).
24-2M TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: S below normal N above normal (S/SE weak).
3M-16 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).

JMA - issued - 070218
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (NW).
10-16 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below or well below (NW) .
17-23 TEMP: below normal PPN: N Scotland below normal PMSL: N above S below (weaker NW) .
24-9M TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W).

JMA - issued - 310118
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN N Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL ABove (WNW).
3F-9F TEMP: England and Wales below but Scotland , N Ireland and Eire above PPN: N Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL: above or well above (NW).
10-16 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: beklow normal (NW).
17-2M TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but N Scotland and perhaps far S England above PMSL: above but far S England below (NW).

JMA - issued - 240118
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (WNW but slack in High in S).
27-2F TEMP: above normal PPN: N Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal PMSL: above or well above (WNW strong in N High in S slack).
3F-9F TEMP: Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above normal (mean wind W in N elsewhere slack in High).
10-23 TEMP: Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (mean wind W in N elsewhere slack in High).



CMA 60 member Ensemble issued date 140218
18-27 TEMP: Mostly below but S and E may be above
PPN : below normal but Eire above
26-7M TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal
8M-17 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but SE England above
18-27 TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued dates 110218
11-20 TEMP: Below normal
PPN : 60/40% split dry/wet newst runs wet.
21-2M TEMP: England below elsewhere above
PPN : Below normal
3M-12 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : mostly below normal
13-22 TEMP: Below normal
PPN : Below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060218
6F-15 TEMP: Below normal 60% above 40% but all newer runs below normal
PPN : S/SW and S Eire below 60% elsewhere above
16-25 TEMP: Above normal but S normal or below
PPN : below normal
26-7M TEMP: below normal 80%
PPN : N 60% below S 40% below elsewhere above
8M-17 TEMP: 40% below in S otherwise above
PPN :80% below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010218 note the below normal temps are held a little further east.
1F-10 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Far N above elsewhere below normal
11-20 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : England and Wales below elsewhere 40/60 split drier/wetter
21-2M TEMP: Above normal but S and E England 40% chance below
PPN : Mostly below normal, 20% chance above in Eire, N Ireland S Scotland and N England
3M-12 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Below normal 20% chance above.




February single issue forecasts issued late January.

UKMO contingency 290118
TEMP: UKMO - Feb colder than normal but season above normal.
FEB: There are a few more ensemble solutions indicating below normal than the above normal results and the main cluster seems to be 0.5 to 1C below 1981-2010 average. There is another cluster showing similar above average anomalies and a futher well below normal cluster. Uncertain 50%/40% colder/warmer 10% normal.
PPN: UKMO - Feb drier than normal and season no strong signal in favour of above or below average.
FEB: Roughly 30/60% split wetter/drier with two main clusters being below normal.


CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
FEB: Normal locally below in SE England
PPN :
FEB: N Scotland normal elsewhere below normal


Next full month March 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



Running total Temp []. PPN []
NOAA - CFS2 220218 valid for March 2018
TEMP: below normal (6/7) [17/20] normal (1/7)
PPN : Normal perhaps below in N and NW (7/7) [20/20]. Above in S (4/7) mear norma; 2/7 [13/20]

NOAA - CFS2 150218 valid for March 2018
TEMP: Below normal all areas (7/7) [N 11/13 S 13/13]
PPN : Below normal in N (7/7)[13/13]. Eire (4/7). S near normal (7/7) [11/13]

NOAA - CFS2 080218 valid for March 2018
TEMP: Below normal (N 4/6) (S 6/6)
PPN : Below normal (6/6) but S normal more likely (4/6)

NOAA - CFS2 020218 - valid for March 2018 - limited model runs
TEMP: Below normal
PPN : Below normal perhaps normal in S



CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
MAR Above normal
PPN :
MAR N Scotland above normal, S England below normal elsewhere normal





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 080218
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME

Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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