SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue September 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue




Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 311019 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 311019 - 5th November to 29th November - Unsettled with rain or showers, wintry on hills in north and windy at times so rather cold. Trending to a drier and more settled period around mid November - still chilly with risk of fog and frost, before returning to an unsettled less cold theme later in the month.
UKMO 241019 - 29th October to 22nd November - Rather mixed signals. Unsettled but with some drier spells for a time, though with risk of frost. Trending more generally unsettled later. Colder than average except perhaps in the south. Some snow for nothern mountains.
UKMO 181019 - 22nd October to 15th November - Unsettled start with rain or showers. From late October and early November, a drier more settled period in the south extending north for a time, before returning to generally unsettled weather early in mid November. Temperatures near normal, locally chilly nights but warmer days during settled weather but also risk of frost/fog.
UKMO 101019 - 14th October to 7th November - Typical unsettled type with spells of wet and windy weather especially in the N and W, some drier spells but mainly shorted lived. Windy at times. Temperatures near normal but feeling colder in stromng winds. Chance of frost not ruled out in any overnight drier calmer interludes.
UKMO 031019 - 8th October to 1st November - Unsettled start and end to this period with rain or showers and at times windy weather but for a period around the middle of October a drier spell espeically in the south. Temperatures near or a shade above average but some colder nights possible during the drier period.
UKMO 260919 - 1st to 25th October - Unsettled start for all with wet and at times windy weather although parts of the souuth and east may see some drier periods. Towards mid month the S and E should see mainly dry weather and this may extend further north at tyimes although the NW may remain unsettled. Temperatures near or slightly above normal but with developing colder night and some fog risk as the weather settles in the S and E.


CFS2 Data 301019
31-6N TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal but far N Scotland below
7N-13 TEMP: normal or below normal PPN: normal or above normal
14-20 TEMP: normal locally below in Eire PPN: above normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above normal

CFS2 Data 231019
24-30 TEMP: below normal PPN: N normal or below elsewhere normal or above
31-6N TEMP: normal PPN: normal or below
7N-13 TEMP: normal or below PPN: above normal
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal

CFS2 Data 171019
18-24 TEMP: normal but far N Scotland above and Eire below PPN: below normal
25-31 TEMP: uncertain above or below normal PPN: below normal
1N-7N TEMP: above normal but Eire and N ireland normal PPN: normal or below
8N-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but risk above in N and W

CFS2 Data 091019
10-16 TEMP: normal perhaps above in S and below in N PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: normal or below normal PPN: normal or above normal
24-30 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal but above in W
31-6N TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 021019
3oct-9 TEMP: normal but above in W and N PPN: S normal elsewhere above
10-16 TEMP: normal or above PPN: N Scotland above, S of England below elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: normal PPN: normal
24-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in W and N



JMA - issued - 301019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WSW).
2N-8N TEMP: Eire below elsewhere above normal PPN above normal PMSL: well below normal (CYCLONIC windy in S).
9N-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: W and SW above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (WSW).
16-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal but Scotland above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).

JMA - issued - 231019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (W).
26-1N TEMP: N above S below PPN: Eire, Wales and W England above elsewhere below normal PMSL: above normal (SLACK).
2N-8N TEMP: abiove normal PPN: below normal PMSL:above normal (WNW) .
9N-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: N aabove S below PMSL: above normal (WNW)

JMA - issued - 161019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL N above S below (W).
19-25 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but N Scotland above PMSL: below normal (WNW).
26-1N TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (Weak W).
2N-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: N below elsewhere above normal PMSL: N above elsewgere below (WNW).

JMA - issued - 091019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WSW).
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (strong WSW).
19-25 TEMP: above normal but Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).
26-8N TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but western areas Eire and UK above PMSL: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere above (SW).

JMA - issued - 021019
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WSW).
5o-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W) .
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW) .
19-1N TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW) .



CMA 80 member Ensemble issued date data to 301019 - full data due 3rd
1N-10 TEMP: below normal locally above in N
PPN : S above N below (boundry uncertain)
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal but north above
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but England and Wales 50/50
1D-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : England below elsewhere above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 261019
26-4N TEMP: above normal
PPN : N below normal elsewhere 80% prob above normal
5N-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 80% prob above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal
25-4D TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but in N 40%/60% prob below/above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 211019
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% prob above in N
31-9N TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below N above
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal 40% risk above in S, 20% elsewhere
20-29 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 161019
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : SE and perhaps S below elsewhere above
26-4N TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% above 40% below
5N-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111019
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but chance of below in S/SE
21-30 TEMP: near or slightly above but central and eastern area slightly below normal
PPN : below normal
31-9N TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% slightly above 40% slightly below
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

WEB LINK checked web ok again 081019
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061019
06-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: N and W above normal S and E (mainly England) 60% prob below normal
PPN : North 60% prob above normal S below normal
26-4N TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N above
5N-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 20% risk above in S Eire or S England

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date due 011019 updated 081019
01-10 TEMP: S above N below
PPN : above normal but far N Scotland below
11-20 TEMP: N Scotland below elsewhere above
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but Scotland 40% prob below
31-09 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S UK above elsewhere below




October single issue forecasts issued late September/Early October.



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
OCT N Ireland, England and Wales above, N Scotland and S Eire below elsewhere normal
PPN : above normal but far N Scotland normal
OCT



UKMO contingency - 021019
TEMP:
October: Strong indication for above average (more than 1C anomaly), only 20% prob below average
PPN:
October: Distribution shifted towards wetter than average, two clusters above average one near average and one below average. Chance of below average 30% or less.



Next full month November 2019 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 281019
TEMP:
Nov: Main strong cluster is about 1 deg above normal (1981-2010) with a 30% cluster of solutions near normal. About 75% of solutions show above average anomalies.
PPN:
Nov: Main cluster of solutions is around normal but with slightly more solutions favouring above average than below average. (UKMO say similar probs above or below normal).



NOAA - CFS2 - 311019 - valid for November 2019
TEMP: Near normal locally below 4/7 above normal 3/7
PPN : Above normal 7/7 but north of Scotland near normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 241019 - valid for November 2019
TEMP: above normal 5/7 near normal 2/7
PPN : near normal - chance of below in N 2/7 and in S 1/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 171019 - valid for November 2019
TEMP: above or well above normal 8/8
PPN : N above normal (5/8) S below normal (6/8) otherwise normal.

NOAA - CFS2 - 091019 - valid for November 2019
TEMP: above normal (6/6)
PPN : NW above normal 5/6 all areas 2/6 otherwise near normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 031019 - valid for November 2019
TEMP: above normal
PPN : normal but a chance of above in North and Below in the South.



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
NOV above normal but normal in much of Eire
PPN :
NOV W Scotland normal locally above elsewhere below normal




Graphcs will appear below as available.


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4

WMO monthly to date - some missing data
WMO




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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