SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue September 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue





Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 301018. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 201018 - 25 October to 18 November 2018 - Colder than normal with some snow for hills in the N and some wintry showers in area exposed to northerly winds but elsewhere a good deal of dry weather. Turning unsettled for a time in week 2 with less cold temperatures though still some snow for the mountains in the north. Returning to more settled weather early in November with drier than normal weather and risk of frosts.
UKMO 201018 - 25 October to 18 November 2018 - Some rain or showers in N drier elsewhere. Soon turning colder risk of snow, mainly on hills in N. N becoming drier later, around mid November. South turning more unsettled and less cold later in November after dry spell with some fog and frost.
UKMO 171018 - 22 October to 15 November 2018 - Drier periods in the south at fist and later in the north otherwise mostly changeable / unsettled with rain at times. Temperatures near normal, at times mild in S. Turning colder in the N later.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 241018
25-31 TEMP: below normal PPN: N normal elsewhere below normal
1N-7|N TEMP: uncertain above/below PPN: normal perhaos above in S
8N-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but perhaps above in W
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but perhaps above in W

CFS2 Data 161018
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: N normal elsewhere below
24-30 TEMP: uncertain normal or below PPN: N normal elsewhere below
31-6N TEMP: S above normal N normal or below PPN: N above S normal
7N-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: N above S normal



JMA - issued - 241018
28day mean - Temp below normal in W above in E PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WNW) .
27-2N TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (NW slack).
3N-9N TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).
10-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: S below N above PMSL: above normal (W) .

JMA - issued - 171018
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (NW).
20-26 TEMP: above normal but below in SW UK and Eire PPN: below PMSL: well above normal (NW) .
27-2N TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above (NW) .
3N-16 TEMP: below PPN: N below S above PMSL: N above elsewhere below normal (WSW).

JMA - issued - 101018
28day mean - Temp SE above normal NW below PPN above normal PMSL below normal (W).
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (strong W) .
20-26 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: S above elsewhere below (WNW v strong in N) .
27-9N TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 261018 (due 28th)
26-4N TEMP: incomplete but new (24th) runs go colder in first 10 days then milder again
PPN :
5N-14 TEMP:
PPN :
15-24 TEMP:
PPN :
24-4D TEMP:
PPN :

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 211018
21-30 TEMP: above normal (hint of below in E/SE)
PPN : below normal hint of above in N
31-9N TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but parts of S below
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above but S may be below
20-29 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above but N may be below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 161018
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
26-4N TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
5N-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : weaker signal slightly above chance locally below
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightyl above but S and W may be below




OCTOBER single issue forecasts issued late August.



UKMO contingency - 011018
TEMP:
OCT Strong signal for below normal
PPN:Season:
OCT Mixed indication, clusters similar for above and below normal perhaps slightly favouring below normal

CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
OCT above normal
PPN :
OCT S normal elsewhere above



Next full month NOVEMBER 2018 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 291018
TEMP:
NOV: "Above average slightly more likely than below". There are two clusters one below normal and the other above although there are more in the well above normal range than typical. Median value slightly above average.
PPN:
NOV: UKMO - Above and below similar probs. The median solution is only slightly above average but there are more solutions showning above or well above than below average.



NOAA - CFS2 - 241018 - valid for November 2018
TEMP: Above normal or well above normal
PPN : normal but in S (5/8) above normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 161018 - valid for November 2018
TEMP: above normal (10/10)
PPN : above normal 6/10 normal 4/10 mainly in N

NOAA - CFS2 - 021018 - valid for November 2018 - limited data
TEMP: Above normal
PPN : uncertain prob above normal in N and W and below in S and E



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
NOV normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
NOV normal b ut central and SE England above





UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly 121018
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4



CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME


Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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