SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue September 2017 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 261017. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike







Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 261017 - 31st Oct to 24th Nov 2017 The north may remain unsettled for much of the period with some colder spells bring the risk of snow for the highest hills/mountains. In the S some unsettled weather early and late with rain or showers but increasing chance of a more settled spell spanning the middle of November. Temperatures near normal but risk of frost and fog in the more settled spells which may bring temperatures below normal.
UKMO 191017 - 24th Oct to 17th Nov 2017 - Unsettled/changeable with limited dry spells, these more likely in the SE rather than the NW (typical climatology). Chance of prolonged dier/settled spell after first week of November but perhaops not in the North. Temperatures near or above normal risk of below normal with more frequebnt frost during settled period.br> UKMO 141017 - 19th Oct to 12th Nov 2017 - Unsettled/changeable with limited dry spells, these mopre likely in the S and E. Temperature near to above normal trending near normal. Typical risk of frost for this period.
UKMO 101017 - 14th Oct to 7th Nov 2017 - Changeable especially in the N/NW where it may be windy at times. In the S/SE less changeable but still some rain though also longer drier spells. Temperatures near normal but for a time early in the period warmer than normal in the S/SE. Increased frost risk for the S later elsewhere near normal risk.
UKMO 041017 - 10th Oct to 3rd Nov 2017 - Unsettled with rain or showers at times and windy. Chance of longer drier spells mid period (3 or 4th week of Oct) then return to changevble. Temps near normal but may be chilly during the drier spell. Risk of some frost.
UKMO 021017 - 8th Oct to 1st Nov 2017 - Mostly changeable with rain or showers especially inn the N/NW. Some drier spells perhaps mnore likely later in period and ion southeast but not prolonged. Temperatures near normal, risk of at least some frost.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 251017
26-1N TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
2N-8N TEMP: far N above elsewhere normal or below PPN: normal perhaps below in SW and above in far N Scotland
9N-15 TEMP: uncertain but N Scotland above PPN: normal or below
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 181017
19-25 TEMP: Above or well above normal PPN: above normal
26-1N TEMP: Above or well above normal PPN: N half of UK and N of Eire above normal elsewhere normal
2N-8N TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: Mixed signals normal most likely
8N-15 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: Mixed signals normal most likely

CFS2 Data 131017
14-20 TEMP: Above or well above normal PPN: England and Wales normal elsewher above
21-27 TEMP: Above or well above normal PPN: Normal but N Scotland above
28-3N TEMP: Above normal PPN: normal
4N-10 TEMP: Above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 011017
3o-9o TEMP: S/SW near or below normal elsewhere above PPN: Eire, England and Wales below normal far N above normal, eleewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: mostly above perhaps normal in SW PPN: N above elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: N above elsewhere normal PPN: normal locally above
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 270917
28-4o TEMP: Eire and SW UK below elsewhere above PPN: above normal
5o-11 TEMP: normal perhaps above in far N and below in far S PPN: Scotland normal but far N above elsewhere below
12-18 TEMP: S normal N above PPN: normal
19-25 TEMP:normal locally above in far N and below in S Eire PPN: normal or above



JMA - issued - 251017
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (strong WNW) .
28-3N TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL well above normal (WNW).
4N-10 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (WNW).
11-24 TEMP: above normal but SW Eire and SW England my be colder PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal WSW.

JMA - issued - 181017
28day mean - Temp Above normal PPN Above normal PMSL Below normal WSW .
21-27 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: BElow normal (Strong WSW) .
28-3N TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: BElow normal (WSW) .
4N-17 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: BElow normal (WSW) .

JMA - issued - 111017
28day mean - Temp Above normal PPN Above normal PMSL below normal (SW).
14-20 TEMP: Above normal PPN Above normal PMSL below normal (SW).
21-27 TEMP: Above normal PPN Above normal PMSL below normal (SW)
28-10 TEMP: Above normal PPN Above normal PMSL below normal (W).

JMA - issued - 041017
28day mean - Temp Above normal PPN Scotland above normal elsewhere below PMSL N below S above (WNW).
7o-13 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Scotland above normal elsewhere below PMSL: N below S above (strong WNW).
14-20 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal far SW below PMSL: BElow normal but SW UK above (strong WNW).
21-3N TEMP: Above normal PPN: Eire below normal elsewhere above PMSL: Eire, England and Wales above elsewhere below (WNW) .

JMA - issued - 270917
28day mean - Temp above normal except perhaps far SW PPN below normal except far N PMSL above normal WSW.
30-6o TEMP: above normal PPN: N above normal S below PMSL: S above N below (strong W).
7o-13 TEMP: above normal except far SW PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (WSW).
14-27 TEMP: above normal except far SW PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 261017 (22-24 data)
26-4N TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but locally below in Eire
5N-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but parts of England may be below
25- TEMP: above normal
PPN : Slightly above but parts of England and Wales slightly below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 211017 last data 19th
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed slightly above most likely
31-9N TEMP: above normal
PPN : N Sxcotland above elsewher slightly below
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed slightly below most likely
20-29 TEMP: above normal but SW UK only slightly
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 161017 (20th)
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : England and Wales below normal elsewhere above
26-4N TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed signal perhaps slightly in favour of below normal
5N-14 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : Mixed S more likely below N uncertain
15-24 TEMP: above normal but SW only slightly
PPN : Below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111017
11-20 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Above normal
21-30 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Mixed slightly above/below
31-9N TEMP: Above normal but far SW below
PPN : Mixed slightly above/below
10-20 TEMP: Above normal but S of UK and S Eire below
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061017
06-15 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : S/SW below elsewhere above
16-25 TEMP: Above normal but SW UK and SW Eire below
PPN : Mixed slightly above/below with N perhaps more likely below
26-4N TEMP: Above normal but SW Eire and SW England near normal
PPN : S/SW UK and Eire below elsewhere above
5N-14 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : S/SW UK and Eire below elsewhere above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 011017
1o-10 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Above normal but far S may be normal
11-20 TEMP: Above normal but SW may be normal or below
PPN : Mostly above but parts of N and NW may be below
21-30 TEMP: Mostly above
PPN : England above elsewhere below
31-9N TEMP: Above normal
PPN : S below elsewher above


October single issue forecast


UKMO Contingency 011017
TEMP:
OCT: near normal or slightly above
PPN:
OCT: Above normal. Two clusters one slightly and one well above normal




Next full month November 2017




UKMO Contingency 011117
TEMP:
NOVEMBER: Despite climate signals towards colder types (La Ninam NAO QBO and MJO - see Met Office text) models predict above normal temperatures. Aprox 60% above 30% below.(
PPN:
NOVEMBER: Although above average is the stated prefered solution, the distribution has reduced frequency of near normal rainfall and a similar split between above or below normal hence a similar risk for below normal rainfall.

NOAA - CFS2 251017 valid for October 2017.
TEMP: Above normal Scotland 5/6 elsewhere 6/6
PPN : Equally split 3/3 wet/drier than normal

NOAA - CFS2 191017 valid for October 2017.
TEMP: 5/5 above normal
PPN : 5/5 S above normal N 3/5 below normal

NOAA - CFS2 141017 valid for November 2017.
TEMP: Above normal 8/8 (4 days of data missing 10-14th)
PPN : Above normal N 7/8 S 5/8 (some missing days data)

NOAA - CFS2 021017 valid for November 2017 limited number of runs
TEMP: above normal
PPN : England and Wales above elsewhere below normal






CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated a weekly
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 101017
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN

NMME NMME

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME

Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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