SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue April 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -280520- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike








Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 270520 - 1st to 25th June 2020 - The dry weather looks set to end in places early in June with an increasing risk of rain or showers especally in the N and W as temperatures ease back to normal. The the south may remain warmer and drier and later in June return to settled warm weather.
UKMO 210520 - 25th May to 18th June 2020 - After a brief unsettled spell, the start of this period looks settled and mainly dry with above average temperatures. NW Scotland, however may be more unsettled with rain or showers and near normal temperatures are likely and this may spread south temporarily. It may become hot in the south early in June before near normal temperatures and more unsettled weather returns to many areas around mid month.
UKMO 130520 - 18th May to 11th June 2020 - A good deal of settled weather with temperatures trending warmer than average although the NW may become more unsettled at times with rain or showers. There is also a risk of some showery rain elsewhere later in the period.
UKMO 070520 - 11th May to 4th June 2020 - Some patchy rain or drizzle but on the whole drier than average but in the south there may be some longer spells of rain and stronger winds. From later in May more generally unsettled weather may spread from the SW. Temperatures a little below normal but turn milder from later in May.
UKMO 030520 - 8th to 31th May 2020 - Drier spells at first in E otherwise becoming generally unsettled with rain or showers and near normal temperatures. Late in May a return to drier more settled and warmer weather seems possible.
UKMO 300420 - 5th to 29th May 2020 - AFter an unsettled start with rain/showers/brighter spells, a more settled period seems likely around the second wseek in May. From about mid month again turning more changeable but overall probably below average rainfall. Temperature most likely above average and locally warm at times in parts of the SE.


CFS2 Data 260520
27-2J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
3J-9J TEMP: above normal but N may be normal PPN: below normal but N may be norml and risk of far S above
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in N
17-23 TEMP: above normal but E England normal PPN: normal perhaps below in N

CFS2 Data 200520
21-27 TEMP: N Scotland below. England and Wales above elsewhere normal PPN: S below N above
28-3J TEMP: S of England above, below in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere normal PPN: N above elsewhere normal
4J-10 TEMP: Uncertain possibly above in S PPN: normal
11-17 TEMP: Uncertain - latest runs above previous below PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 110520
13-19 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but N and W normal
27-2J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
3J-9J TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below normal

CFS2 Data 050520
6M-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
13-19 TEMP: uncertain above/below PPN: normal or below
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but chance of above in Eire and NW
27-2J TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal but chance of below

CFS2 Data 020520
3M-9M TEMP: Scotland normal elsewhere above PPN: N and E below, SW UK above elsewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: N above S normal or below PPN: normal or below
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but Eire and N Ireland above
24-30 TEMP: noral or above PPN: normal but W Eire above



ECMWF 250520
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
1J-7J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
8J-14 TEMP: N below normal S above normal PPN: below normal
15-21 TEMP: N Normal S above PPN: NE and W Scotland and NW England above elsewhere below normal
22-28 TEMP: N Normal S above PPN: below normal
29-5J TEMP: S above, far north belo elsewhere normal PPN: below normal

ECMWF 180520
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: N half of Scotland above elsewhere below
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW Scotland above elsewhere below
1J-7J TEMP: N below, middle normal, S above PPN: below normal
8J-14 TEMP: Mostly above but far N Scotland below PPN: below normal but risk of avove S coasts mainly SW England
15-21 TEMP: N below, middle normal, S above PPN: Scotland and northern N Ireland above elsewhere below
22-28 TEMP: England and Wales above elsewhere normal (N Isles may be below) PPN: SW and S England below elsewhere mostly above locally normal

ECMWF 110520
11-17 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but far N Scotland above
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
1J-7J TEMP: above normal but N Scotland normal PPN: below normal but above normal in parts of Central and W Scotland, Irish Sea coasts and SW England
8J-14 TEMP: above normal but N Scotland normal PPN: below normal
15-21 TEMP: above normal but far N Scotland normal PPN: below normal but above in W and N Eire and N Ireland and N half of Scotland and normal in E Eire N England and parts of S Scotland

ECMWF 060520
4M-10 TEMP: Above in Eire, Wales and SW third of England, below in NE Scotland elsewhere normal PPN: below normal
11-17 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: Eire, Wales, SW England and SW Scotland above elsewhere below
25-31 TEMP: N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal PPN: N Ireland, N Scotland and part of SE England below elsewhere above normal
1J-7J TEMP: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere normal PPN: N Scotland normal elsewhere above
8J-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: Eire, Cumbria and W Scotland above elsewhere bekow normal



JMA - issued - 280520
28day mean - Temp NW below SE above PPN below normal PMSL slack N above S below.
30-5J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal but far SW below (Slack E).
6J-12 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (NW).
13-26 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: SE above elsewhere below PMSL: N above S below (Slack WNW).

JM - issued - 200520
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal but far N above PMSL Above normal (Slack W).
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal but far N above PMSL Above normal (W in north High in S)
30-5J TEMP: above normal PPN below normalPMSL Above normal (Slack W).
6J-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but N and W above PMSL: above normal (Ridge NW) .

JMA - issued - 130520
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN Scotland above normal elsewhere below PMSL above normal (Slack).
16-23 TEMP: above normal PPN N Scotland above normal elsewhere below PMSL above normal (HIGH).
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (SLACK).
30-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire above elsewhere below normal PMSL: above normal (SLACK W).

JMA - issued - 070520
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN SW England above normal elsewhere below normal PMSL above normal but far SW below (slack SW).
9M-15 TEMP: mostly below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (SE).
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW) .
23-5J TEMP: above normal PPN: Scotland and SW England above elsewhere below normal PMSL: N below S above .



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260520
26-4J TEMP: well above normal
PPN : below normal
5J-14 TEMP: well above normal
PPN : below normal except perhaos N Isles
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above S below
25-4Ju TEMP: well above normal
PPN : below normal but N Scotland 40% prob above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210520
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N Scotland may be above
31-9J TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N Scotland 4-% prob above normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but south may be below
20-29 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 20% chance above in England and N Scotland

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160520
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but far N Scotland may be above
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal 60% above normal 40%
5J-14 TEMP: above normal 60% near normal 40%
PPN : below normal 40% above normal 60%
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : England below normal 80% elsewhere above normal more likely.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date due 110520
11-20 TEMP: W normal E below
PPN : below normal but S/SE England 30% risk above
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9J TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above S below
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed signal slightly above /slightly below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date due 8th
6M-15 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : below normal - 20% risk of above in far S
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN : N Scotland above elsewhere below
5J-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010520
1M-10 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N below normal elsewhere above normal
11-20 TEMP: W below E near normal or above
PPN : 60% prob for above normal
21-30 TEMP: W below E near normal or above
PPN : N below elsewhere above
31-9J TEMP: NW 60% prob below SE 60% prob above
PPN : prob for below noral 60% but 80% in England


May 2020single issue forecasts issued late December/Early Jan.



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above normal in SW England
PPN :
MAY N Scotland and NW Eire below, Wales and southern two thirds of England above elsewhere normal




UKMO contingency - 270420
TEMP:
May: Above average. Main cluster between 1 and 2 deg C anomaly. Chance of below average about 15%.
PPN:
May: Below average most likely - about 30% of solutions are above average. Note range of solutions extend drier and wetter than the climatology (1981-2010).




Next full month June 2020 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 260520
June: Above or well above average -only about 5% of solutions are near or below average. Median value about 1.5C above average.
PPN:
June: Two clusters below average and one above, below average most likely about a 70% prob.


NOAA - CFS2 - 270520 - valid for June 2020
TEMP: above normal 2/6 normal 4/6
PPN : below normal but far south normal or risk above (could imply thundery spells from France)

NOAA - CFS2 - 210520 - valid for June 2020
TEMP: above normal 8/8
PPN : below normal 8/8

NOAA - CFS2 - 130520 - valid for June 2020
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : normal 3/7 below normal 4/7 but above normal in NW 3/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 060520 - valid for June 2020 (data for 5 and 6th missing)
TEMP: Mostly above normal
PPN : Mostly below normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 030520 - valid for June 2020
TEMP: Above normal but England may be nearer normal
PPN : Mostly below normal



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
JUN above normal
PPN :
JUN normal but W Scotland, W Wales, N Ireland and Eire below




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2

NASA 050320
NASA


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC

WMO monthly
WMO




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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