SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue April 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire


Updated 300519 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 290519 - 3rd to 27th June - Unsettled with rain or showers and also some drier spells but cooler than normal especially in the north with the south nearer normal. Trending, by around mid June, to drier and warmer (locally very warm in SE) weather but with risk of thundery rain in the south.
UKMO 230519 - 28th May to 21st June - Showers developing and perhaps some longer spells of rain, also cooler than normal but approaching mid June becoming warmer and more settled/drier.
UKMO 160519 - 21st May to 14th June 2019 some dry spells especially for the N and W but elsewhere chance of showers and trending more unsettled wiyh rain. Later in period trending to more generally dry weather. Temperatures mostly near or above normal but cooler near some windward coasts.
UKMO 090519 - 14th May to 7th June 2019 - Settled spell with some chilly nights and risk of fog and frost but temperatures generally above normal by day in the N and W. Turning more unsettled again before long, also cooler, this lasting into the start of June but then possible drier and warmer again.
UKMO 030519 - 8th May to 1st June 2019 - Cooler than average start with wind and rain spreading from the west but becoming warmer and less unsettled and at times drier for periods, especially in the south.



CFS2 Data 280519
29-4J TEMP: N below S above PPN: MN above S normal
5J-11 TEMP: normal but far S above PPN: normal
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below
19-25 TEMP: normal PPN: normal perhaos above in S

CFS2 Data 220519
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: N normal elsewhere below
30-5J TEMP: below normal but above in SW PPN: normal but above in N
6J-12 TEMP: normal but far SW above PPN: normal
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 150519
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
30-5J TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
6J-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 080519
9M-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or below but risk above in SW
16-22 TEMP: normal but above in N PPN: normal or below
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
30-5J TEMP: England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal or above PPN: normal risk of above

CFS2 Data 020519
3M-9M TEMP: Below normal PPN: S abovefar N below elsewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: normal or above but far N may be below normal PPN: normal perhaps below nornal in S
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below normal



JMA - issued - 300519
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL N below S above (slack WNW).
1J-7J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below (strong WNW))
8J-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (Slack ridge).
15-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal PMSL: above normal (Slack ridge).

JMA - issued - 220519
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN S below N above PMSL above normal. (Slack W)
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: S below N above PMSL: below normal but SW above (NW) .
1J-7J TEMP: above normal PPN: S below N above PMSL: above normal.
8J-21 TEMP: S below N above PPN: S below N above PMSL: above normal (Slack)

JMA - issued - 150519
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL N below S above (Slack) .
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (slack).
25-31 TEMP: N above S below PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal Slack (NW).
1J-14 TEMP: abive normal PPN: N above elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (slack W).

JMA - issued - 080519
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (Slack).
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above normal (H over UK).
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (Slack).
25-7J TEMP: above normal PPN: England and Wales below elsewhere above PMSL: S above elsewhere below (slack).

JMA - issued - 010519
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN England and Wales below elsewhere above PMSL slightly above (Slack).
4M-10 TEMP: below normal PPN: SW Uk and SW Eire above elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (Slack SW).
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: England and Wales below elsewhere above PMSL: lightly above (Slack)
18-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (Sclack E).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260519
26-4J TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal but 60% prob England below normal 40% for other areas
5J-14 TEMP: above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN : N and W below S and E above (60% probs both areas)
15-24 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : above normal but 60% prob Eire and N Ireland below 40% for other S and W areas
25-3Jly TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal but slightly heigher probs for above in Eire.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210519
21-30 TEMP: 60% above 40% below
PPN : SE above elsewhere below
31-9J TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal
10-19 TEMP: 80% below normak
PPN : S below N above
20-29 TEMP: 40% (60% Eire) below 60% (40% Eire) above
PPN : 60% above elsewhere below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160519
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
26-4J TEMP: 60% prob below normal
PPN : below normal risk of above in S
5J-14 TEMP: normal or below
PPN : N below S above
15-24 TEMP: N above elsewhere below<
PPN : N below S above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110519
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: 80% prob normal or above
PPN : above normal
31-9J TEMP: normal or below
PPN : mostly above but chance below in England
10-19 TEMP: N and NE above elsewhere below
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060519
6M-15 TEMP: above normal 80& 20% below.
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : near normal perhaps below in Scotland
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal 80% below 20%
5J-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N half of UK below normal, elsewhere above.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010519
1M-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : W mostly above E mostly below
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: mostly below normal
PPN : N below elsewhere above
31-9J TEMP: near normal locally below
PPN : 60% prob above normal




MAY single issue forecasts issued late April/early May.




UKMO contingency - 300419
TEMP:
May: Above normal most likely (less than about 20% chance below normal). Distribution shifted towards above normal with 5 solutions well above normal. Graphics suggest not quite as warm as last year.
PPN:
May: Met Office say similar probs for above or below normal. Large spread in solutions, clustering around normal and also above normal. Output suggest above normal is possible.




Next full month JUNE 2019 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 260519
TEMP:
June: Above normal temperatures likely. Chance of below normal less than 10%. Most likely solutions sit at around 1 C above normal but a few forecast solutions are above the climatic range.
PPN:
June: Distribution of ensemble forecasts group at slightly below normal, near normal and above normal so no clear or simple message.



NOAA - CFS2 - 290519 - valid for June 2019
[Temp Above normal 27/30 PPN in S below 9/30 near normal more likely ] TEMP: above normal 6/6 but normal in N and W 1/6
PPN : NW UK and Eire above normal 4/6 S and SE below 4/6 otherwise normal.

NOAA - CFS2 - 230519 - valid for June 2019
TEMP: near normal 2/7 above normal 5/7
PPN : near normal S 5/7 N 3/7 above normal in N 2/7 below normal 2/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 160519 - valid for June 2019
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : near normal 7/7 but chance below normal 2/7 in far S and/or far N

NOAA - CFS2 - 090519 - valid for June 2019
TEMP: above normal (6/6)
PPN : near normal, above normal in S (1/6) in W and NW (3/6) and below normal in S (1/6)

NOAA - CFS2 - 030519 - valid for June 2019
TEMP: near normal or slightly above
PPN : uncertain, probably near normal



CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
MAY near normal
PPN :
MAY normal



CanSIPS 310319
TEMP:
JUN N and W normal S and E above
PPN :
JUN normal but below in S Wales and S of England




Graphcs 090519
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly
EC ECMWF monthly EFIS
EC

UKMO monthly
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4

WMO monthly 270419
EC




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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