SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


Follow @T2mike
Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue April 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 310518. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike










Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 290518 - 3rd to 27th June 2018 - A good deal of dry and warm weather but cooler with mist near some mainly E coasts and southern areas continue to be at risk of thundery outbreaks at first for the start of June. Becoming slightly changeable with some rain or showers for many by about mid June with nearer normal or slightly above normal temperature but still some good dry spells developing and possibly warm spells especially in the S.
UKMO 240518 - 29th May to 22nd June 2018 - Some longer dry periods with best of Sunshne in NW of UK. In the south a risk of thundery rain oputbreaks, probably above normal temeprature locally very warm in S. Problems with low cloud from the N Sea / Haar across Eastern area - hence cooler there - but a risk of some sea fog elsewhere. During June turning more unsettled with rain or showers at times and nearer normal or slightly above normal temperatures.
UKMO 170518 - 9th May to 2nd June 2018 - The N and W changeable with some rain or showers between drier spells and near normal temperatures, The S and E more likelly to be drier and warmer but with a risk of thundery outbreaks mainly in the SE. A chance that the changeable weather in the NW may become more widespread across the UK during June.
UKMO 100518 - 9th May to 2nd June 2018 - Near normal temperatures trending above normal and locally warm at times. Slow moving weather systems so that although a good deal of dry weather is likely some rain or showers will also occur on some days. In the S/E there is a risk of turning thundery at times later.
UKMO 040518 - 9th May to 2nd June 2018 - Some rain crossing UK at first then more settled for a period in the S but remaining changeble in the N/NW. This cheangeable weather sprerading to many areas later in May and into June but with some dry spells too. Risk of thunderstorms in S to upset the more settled theme. Temperaures normal in NW above normal in S/SE.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 290518
30-5J TEMP: above or well above normal PPN: N below normal S normal rish above in far S/SE
6J-12 TEMP: above or well above normal PPN: mostly below normal
13-19 TEMP: England and Wales normal or below elsewhere above normal PPN: near normal
20-26 TEMP: Mostly above normal but S may be normal PPN: near normal

CFS2 Data 220518
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal but far S normal
30-5J TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal but far S normal
6J-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: near or below normal
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly below normal

CFS2 Data 160518
17-23 TEMP: N uncertain elsewhere normal PPN: Below normal
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal
31-6J TEMP: S normal elsehere above PPN: Below normal
7J-13 TEMP: S normal elsehere above PPN:

CFS2 Data 080518
9M-15 TEMP: Below normal but S may be normal PPN: Eire and N Uk above elsewhere normal
16-22 TEMP: Above normal but S may be normal PPN: normal but N and W Eire also N and NW UK below
23-29 TEMP: Above normal PPN: normal or below
30-5J TEMP: Above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 030518
4M-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: N Scotland normal elsewhere below
11-17 TEMP: above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal PPN: normal
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: S normal elsewhere below normal
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: S normal elsewhere below normal

CFS2 Data 250518
26-2M TEMP: below normal PPN: normal locally below in N and above in S
3M-9M TEMP: below normal PPN: normal
10-16 TEMP: normal PPN: normal
17-23 TEMP: normal PPN: normal




JMA - issued - 300518
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN SW Eire and SW UK above elsewhere below normal PMSL SW Eire and SW UK below normal elsewhere above (Slack W).
2J-8J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: S normal elsewhere above (slack) .
9J-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: Western areas above normal elsewhere below normal PMSL: below normal (weak W) .
16-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: England and Wales except far SW below normal elsewhere above PMSL: above normal (weak W).

JMA - issued - 230518
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal but far S of England may be above PMSL Above normal excwept in far S (Slack mean wind patter).
26-1J TEMP: well above normal PPN: low normal but far S of England may be above PMSL: well above normal in N below in far S (Weak SE).
2J-8J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal but below close to far S of England (SLACK).
9J-22 TEMP: Below normal but SE England above PPN: Above normal in N Scotland and S England elsewhere below PMSL: below normal (WNW) .

JMA - issued - 160518
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN N Ireland and Scotland above normal esewhere below PMSL above normal (Salck W'ly in N).
19-25 TEMP: SW Eire below normal elsewhere above normal PPN: England and Wales below normal elsewhere above PMSL: above normal (W'ly in N slack in S).
26-1J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (Slack).
2J-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: N Scotland above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal but far SW below (weak NW).

JMA - issued - 100518
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (slack)
12-18 TEMP: Eire and SW Uk below normal elsewhere above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (slack WNW).
19-25 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (slack).
26-8J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal but far SW below normal (Slack).

JMA - issued - 050518
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN N Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL above normal (SLACK).
5M-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but far N Scotland above PMSL: well above normal (W in N elsewhere slack / high) .
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but N half of Scotland above normal PMSL: Above normal.
19-1J TEMP:above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (Slack).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260518
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
5J-14 TEMP: above normal but less so in N
PPN : slightly below normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly below normal
25-4July TEMP: near normal
PPN : Above normal but N of UK 40% prob below.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210518
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : NW third of UK and Eire above normal elsewhere below normal
31-9J TEMP: above normal less so in far N
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal but near normal in far N
PPN : below normal
20-29 TEMP: above normal but near normal in far N
PPN : mostly below normal but far N and far S at risk from near or above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160518 (12-15 80 members)
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal locally above in far NW
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN: below normal

5J-14 TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN : mixed signal above/below normal
15-24 TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN : mostly below normal but risk of above in Eire and far SW.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110518
11-20 TEMP: above normal but SW UK and Eire 40% prob below normal
PPN : S/SE England below normal elsewhere above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
31-9J TEMP: above normal but 40% chance below normal in N
PPN : below normal but NW 40% prob above
10-19 TEMP: near normal
PPN : N 60% prob below normal elsewhere 60% prob above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060518
6M-15 TEMP: Above normal but chance of the West being normal
PPN : NW (mainly of Scotland) above elsewhere below normal
16-25 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Far N Scotland 60% prob above elsewhere below normal
26-4J TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Above normal (40% prob below)
5J-14 TEMP: near normal chance of below normal
PPN : Above normal 60%

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010518
1M-10 TEMP: Below normal
PPN : above normal
11-20 TEMP: near normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: near normal perhaps above in England
PPN : below normal but Eire and Scotland may be above normal
31-9J TEMP: near normal perhaps above in England
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260518 (25th 80 members rather than 100)
26-5M TEMP: Below normal
PPN : above normal
6M-15 TEMP: near or slgihtly below normal
PPN : S 40% chance below elsewhere above
16-25 TEMP: Below normal
PPN : NW below normal elsewhere above normal
26-4J TEMP: Below normal
PPN : Below normal but W and S chance of above normal



May single issue forecasts issued late April.


UKMO contingency 300518
TEMP:
MAY Fairly even spread above or below normal but with few member clustered near normal implying uncertainty (Met O says near normal)
PPN:
MAY above normal more likely than below - districbution shifted towards above normal but there are two similar clusters one above and one below normal. More members of the ensemble well above normal.


Cansips 300418
TEMP:
MAY normal but N Ireland SW Scotland Wales N and W England and parts of S England above
PPN :
MAY below normal




Next full month June 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



UKMO contingency 290518
TEMP:
June: Above average more likely than below. Distribution shifted towards above average median value about 0.5 deg above normal. Only a 25% chance of below normal.
PPN:
June: Below normal more likely than above. Roughly 40/60 split in favour of below average although there is a cluster of solutions above normal outweighed by the clusters below or well below normal which might imply different solutions across the UK that a single figure cannot resolve.




ECMWF - monthly - 120518 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUN near normal (+/-0.5 deg F)
PPN:
JUN Eire, W of N Ireland Wales and England S ofSheffield below normal but NW Scotland and NE England above normal elsewhere near normal (+-/0.05inch)
PMSL:
JUN above normal especially in S



NOAA - CFS2 25-30th May valid for June 2018
TEMP: above normal (6/6)
PPN : below normal (6/6) but the S nearer normal and possibly above in far S (3/6)


NOAA - CFS2 data 18-24th valid for June 2018
TEMP: above normal (7/7)
PPN : below normal (perhaps nearer normal in far SE) (7/7)

NOAA - CFS2 10-17th May valid for June 2018
TEMP: Above normal but England may be nearer normal
PPN : Below normal but far N and SE may be nearer normal

NOAA - CFS2 5th to 9th May valid for June 2018
TEMP: N above normal S 60% prob normal 40% above normal
PPN : normal locally below 60$ in SW and 40% parts of N 20% elsewhere4

NOAA - CFS2 1st to 4th May valid for June 2018
TEMP: Above normal
PPN : N Below normal elsewhere normal but chance of above in Devon/Dorset area



Cansips 300418
TEMP:
JUN Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
JUN Far N Scotland above but below in S Scotland, England, Wales, N Ireland and Eire, elsewhere normal br>


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 070518
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME

Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

Comments or questions please E mail


Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data