SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue February 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue






Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 290318. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 290318 - 3rd April to 270th April 2018 - Mostly colder than average although the south may see values nearer normal and later in the month some also warmer days as the risk of frost become confined to northern areas. Rain or showers with some hills snow, especially in the north. Drier spells especially in the SE with more widespread drier spells possible for a time from about mid month.
UKMO 220318 - 27th March to 20th April 2018 - After a briefly less cold but unsettled period with snow risk over northern hills, colder weather looks set to return increasing the risk of frosts. Although some drier spells are likely ther is likely to be unsettled spells with the risk of snow extending futher south. Milder and changeable weather returning towards Mid April.
UKMO 160318 - 13th March to 6th April 2018 - AFter a cold start some recovery to near normal temperatures for a time but trending mostly a below normal especially in N. Turning unsettled with spells of wind/rain/showers and drier spells. Snow risk mainly in N. Wettest areas may well be the S and W.
UKMO 070318 - 13th March to 6th April 2018 - Unsettled with rain or showers, any snow chiefly for northern hills. Mostly near normal temperatures though the north may be colder at times and there is a chance that colder weather with increased snow risk may develop for a time late March/Early April below milder types develop from the SW later. Wind at times.
UKMO 010318 - 6th March to 30th March 2018 - Unsettled. The North colder than normal with furter snow and at times rain or sleet. In the South less cold but still below normal for March with rain or sleet trending more to rain. NW UK most likely to be driest area. Later in period chance of milder SW winds and rain is possible.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 270318
29-4A TEMP: Below normal PPN: far N below normal elsewhere normal or above
5A-11 TEMP: below normal but chance above normal in S PPN: mostly above normal
12-18 TEMP: N normal or below elsewhere above normal PPN: normal
19-25 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or above

CFS2 Data 210318
22-28 TEMP: below normal PPN: N above normal elsewhere normal
29-4A TEMP: below normal PPN: S above normal N normal
5A-11 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or above
12-18 TEMP: below normal or normal PPN: normal or above

CFS2 Data 150318
16-22 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal but N/NW below nd far SW above
23-29 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal
30-5A TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal chance below in S
6A-12 TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal or above normal

CFS2 Data 070318
8M-14 TEMP: below normal perhaps normal in S/SE PPN: Above normal perhaps normal in N
15-21 TEMP: below normal perhaps normal in S/SE PPN: Above normal perhaps normal in N
22-28 TEMP: below normal PPN: N normal elsewhere above normal
29-4A TEMP: below normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 010318
2M-8M TEMP: Below normal PPN: Above normal perhaps normal in N
9M-15 TEMP: Below normal PPN: Above normal perhaps normal in N
16-22 TEMP: below normal perhaps normal in S PPN: near normal locally above in S
23-29 TEMP: normal or above PPN: near normal locally above in N



JMA - issued - 290318
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN Far N below normal elsewhere above PMSL below normal (slack SW)
31-6A TEMP: below normal PPN: Far N below normal elsewhere above PMSL: well below (slack SE).
7A-13 TEMP: N below S above PPN: above normal PMSL: N below S above (Slack W).
14-27 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Far SW below normal elsewhere above normal (Slack)

JMA - issued - 210318
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN S above elsewehere below PMSL below normal (NW).
24-30 TEMP: below normal PPN: Far S and Far N above elsewhere below PMSL: below especially to NE (NW).
31-6A TEMP: below normal PPN: S above N below PMSL: Below normal (Slack N).
7A-20 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above normal (Slack NW ridge) .

JMA - issued - 140318
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN SW UK and SW Eire above elsewhere below PMSL SW below NE above (W).
17-23 TEMP: below normal far SW PPN: far SW above elsewhere below normal PMSL: far SW below normal elsewhere above (SLACK).
24-30 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W) .
31-13 TEMP: below normal PPN: far SW aboe elsewhere below normal PMSL: above normal (W) .


JMA - issued - 070318
28day mean - Temp England and Wales above normal elsewhere below normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal SW.
10-16 TEMP: England and Wales above normal elsewhere below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well below normal (SW) .
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (NW).
24-6A TEMP: N Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire above normal elsewhere below PPN: N Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).

JMA - issued - 280218
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN above normal but far N below PMSL below normal well below in SW (S).
3M-9M TEMP: below normal PPN: Above normal but Eire and N/NW UK below normal PMSL: well below normal (E in N SW in S).
10-16 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal buyt far N below normal PMSL: below normal (SW).
17-30 TEMP: N below elsewhere above PPN: above normnal but N below normal PMSL: below normal (WSW) .

JMA - issued - 210218
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN S above elsewhere below normal PMSL far N normal elsewhere below (slack S) .
24-2M TEMP: well below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above normal but below to SW (strong ESE).
3M-9M TEMP: below normal PPN: S above elsewhere below normal PMSL: below normal (S).
10-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260318
26-4A TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal
5A-14 TEMP: below normal
PPN : England and Wales above normal elsewhere 60% prob below normal
15-24 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N Scotland above nornal elsewhere 60% below normal
25-4M TEMP: near or slightly above normal
PPN : N Scotland above normal elsewhere 80% below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210318
21-30 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N 60% below normal elsewhere above normal
31-9A TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal, less so in far N
10-19 TEMP: slightly less below normal
PPN : England and Wales 60% above normal elsewhere 40% above normal and 60% below normal
20-29 TEMP: below normal 60% above normal 40% but England 60%
PPN : S of England below normal elsewhere above normal

CMA 60 member Ensemble issued date 160318 (up to 14th)
16-25 TEMP: below normal
PPN : far N below elsewhere above normal
26-4A TEMP: below normal
PPN : far N below elsewhere above normal
5A-14 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : mostly above normal
15-24 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : uncertain W and S more likely below elsewhere more likely above need to wai for later runs

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110318
11-20 TEMP: Below but chance nearer normal in S
PPN : Above normal but far N near normal
21-30 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N and E 60% chance below normal elsewhere above normal more likely
31-9A TEMP: mostly below but nearer normal in places
PPN : above normal but far N 20% chance below normal
10-19 TEMP: near or slightly below normal
PPN : N below S above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060318
6M-15 TEMP: below normal
PPN : in S more likely above in N more likely below elsewhere mixed signals prob 60% below normal
16-25 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N Scotland 80% prob below normal elsewhere above normal
26-4A TEMP: near normal perhaps above in S
PPN : N Scotland 60% prob below normal elsewhere above normal
5A-14 TEMP: Eire above but elsewhere below more likely than above
PPN : N below S above elsewhere mixture graduated probs N to S.

CMA 60 member Ensemble issued date 010318
1M-10 TEMP: well below normal
PPN : Below normal perhaps above in far S
11-20 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: Near or above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9A TEMP: near normal
PPN : above normal




March single issue forecasts issued late February.

UKMO contingency 270218
TEMP:
March: Colder than normal likely. All solutions shifted towards colder solutions with stronggest signal for about 1 deg C below average. Only one solution is as cold as 2013.
PPN:
March: Very large spread of solutions but some clustering at slightly below average which is the main theme.

CanSIPS 280218
TEMP:
MAR below normal
PPN :
MAR far SW England above, most of Eire, N Ireland Scotland and NW England below elsewhere normal






Next full month April 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



UKMO contingency 290318 - All of UK single average figure output.
TEMP:
APRIL: Below normal is more likely than above normal. The split is roughly 60/40 between number of colder/warmer than average ensemble members. Roughtly three clusters one above normal and two below/well below normal. Interesting reduction in the probablity for near normal values.
PPN:
APRIL: Below normal more likely than above. Split is roughly 55/45% below/above. Ensemble members cover a wide spread greater than the cliamtology. Reduced number of solutions slightly above normal and increased slightly below normal.



NOAA - CFS2 valid for April 2018
TEMP: Mostly below normal 5/7, 2/7 normal 4/7 normal for Eire
PPN : N 4/7 below normal, S 3/7 above normal otherwise normal

NOAA - CFS2 220318 valid for April 2018
TEMP: N below 4/7 [6/20] normal 3/7 [10/20] S below normal 7/7 [9/20] N+S above [5/20]
PPN : N below normal 4/7 [4/20] normal 2/7 [9/20]. S normal 4/7 [11/20] above 3/7 [9/20]. N+S above [6/13]

NOAA - CFS2 150318 valid for April 2018
TEMP: normal (5/7)[6/13] below (2/7)[2/13] above (0/7)[5/13]
PPN : normal (2/7) {Eire 4/7} [7/13] above normal (5/7)[6/13]

NOAA - CFS2 080318 valid for April 2018
TEMP: normal (1/6) or above normal (5/6)
PPN : S below normal (4/6) N normal (5/6) above normal all areas (1/6)

TEMP: Normal or slightly above
PPN : above normal



CanSIPS 280218
TEMP:
APR normal
PPN :
APR N Scotland above S/SW of UK and Eire below elsewhere normal





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME

Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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