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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue May 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue
Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -300620- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike
Met Office regular update text for 30days
Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 300620 - 4th July to 28th July 2020 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy at times but the E/SE of England becoming less unsettled and around mid month and a temporary drier spell may develop more widely except in the N/NW. A further drier spells is possible later in July. Temperature cool at times in the N and W elsewhere near average becoming warm in the drier spells.
UKMO 250620 - 30th June to 24th July 2020 - Unsettled/changeable weather with rain or showers and some drier intervals these most prevalent in the SE. Chance of a drier spell around mid July especially inn the S and E. Windy at times, especially in the N. Temperatures near nornal in the north but above average elsewhere and possibly warm or very warm in the drier spell inn the south although higher temperatures could lead to thunderstorms.
UKMO 180620 - 22nd June to 16th July 2020 - On the whole not especially settled with rain or showers for many parts, especially in the NW, also a risk of thundery outbreaks in the south. A short drier spell may well occur in the last full week of June. Temperatures near or above average but warm or very warm at times especially in the S and SE.
UKMO 110620 - 15th June to 9th July 2020 - Some longer dry spells but mixed indications for showers developing perhaps merging to periods of rain - mainly in south at first but migrating to north later. Temperatures warm at times except near E facing coasts (which may also be misty) at first and in the NW later.
UKMO 030620 - 8th June to 2nd July 2020 - Some rain or showers at times, more frequent in the north and less so in parts of the S and W. Trending to drier, more settled weather from late in June. Colder than average temperature to start the month warming towards normal in the south and later possibly warm in places in the south and near normal elsewhere.
UKMO 270520 - 1st to 25th June 2020 - The dry weather looks set to end in places early in June with an increasing risk of rain or showers especially in the N and W as temperatures ease back to normal. The the south may remain warmer and drier and later in June return to settled warm weather.
CFS2 Data 290620
30-6Jul TEMP: below normal PPN: S below N normal
7J-13 TEMP: SE normal elsewhere below PPN: Scotland normal elsewhere below
14-20 TEMP: N below S above PPN: normal locally below normal in N and W
21-27 TEMP: N normal S above PPN: normal locally below normal in N and W
CFS2 Data 240620
25-1Ju TEMP: Ireland below elsewhere above PPN: N above S normal
2J-8J TEMP: S and SE England above elsewhere below PPN: N normal S below
9J-15 TEMP: NW below elsewhere mostly above PPN: normal or below
16-22 TEMP:England and Wales above elsewhere normal PPN: normal or below
CFS2 Data 170620
18-24 TEMP: Ireland normal elsewhere above PPN: Above normal but NE Scotland below
25-1Jl TEMP: normal perhaps above in NE Scotland but below in Eire and SW UK PPN: normal but S below
2Jl-8J TEMP: uncertain above/normal/below PPN: normal
9J-15 TEMP: uncertain above/normal/below PPN: normal but chance of below in S
CFS2 Data 100620
11-17 TEMP: W Eire and SW England below elsewhere above PPN: far N below, Wales and England above elsewhere normal
18-24 TEMP: below normal perhaps norml in S PPN: normal but South above normal
25-1J TEMP: normal (uncertain above or below) PPN: above normal
2J-8J TEMP: normal (uncertain above or below) PPN: normal chance below
CFS2 Data 020620
3J-9J TEMP: below normal PPN: E and E above normal elsewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: below normal PPN: N and W below elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: normal perhaps above in N PPN: normal locally below in NW
24-30 TEMP: normal perhaps above in N PPN: normal locally below in NW
ECMWF 220620
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN : Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere mostly below
29-05 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN : W Scotland above elsewhere below
06-12 TEMP: above normal PPN : below normal
13-19 TEMP: normal but above in W and S PPN : below normal
20-26 TEMP: normal but above in S PPN: below normal
27-2A TEMP: normal but above in SE PPN: N Scotland above elsewhere below
ECMWF 150620
15-21 TEMP: mostly above but SW England normal PPN: NE England and E Scotland below elsewhere above
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal locally above in NW Scotland
29-5J TEMP: W normal E above PPN: normal but above N Wales, Midlands, E of England, N England and SE Scotland.
6J-12 TEMP: mostly above normal PPN: mostly below normal locally above in far N Scotland and Irish Sea coasts.
13-19 TEMP: normal but above in Central southern and SE England PPN: below normal but locally above in NW Scotland
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
ECMWF 080620
8J-14 TEMP: normal locally below in NE England and above in NW Scotland PPN: NW below elsewhere above especially in SW.
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: N Scotland below. Above in England, Wales and Eire, elsewhere normal
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: N half mostly abive also W Wales, elsewhere below normal
29-5J TEMP: normal locally above in E England PPN: above normal locally normal in E England
6J-12 TEMP: normal PPN: N England and SW England above, Wales Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below elsewhere normal
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: Mostly below normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above
ECMWF 010620
1J-7J TEMP: S Eire, S Wales and SW England noral elsewhere below PPN: NE Scotland above, below in Eire, N ireland SW Scotland S Wales and SE England elsewhere normal
8J-14 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal locally above in Cornwall N and W Wales W Coastal Scotland NE Scotland, N England and NE Midlands elsewhere normal
15-21 TEMP: below normal but central and E England normal PPN: above normal but NW Scotland below
22-28 TEMP: Midlands and SE England above elsewhere normal locally below in N and W PPN: Locally above in N Scotland elsewhere below normal
29-5J TEMP: Midlands and S of England normal elsewhere below PPN: locally normal but mostly below
6J-12 TEMP: Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal PPN: SW Eire and E and SE England below elsewhere mostly above
JMA - issued - 250620
28day mean - Temp Ireland below elsewhere above PPN above normal but SE England below PMSL below normal (WNW).
27-3J TEMP: NE Scotland above elsewhere below PPN: above normal but SE England below PMSL: below normal (strong WNW) .
4J-10 TEMP: above normal but Ireland below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal ( WNW) .
11-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above noral (NW) .
JMA - issued - 170620
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal but locally below in East of UK PMSL Below in S and NW elsewheere above (W).
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: Ireland and Scotland above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (SLACK).
27-3Jl TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW) .
4J-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal but far N Scotland above PMSL: above normal (Slack W).
JMA - issued - 100620
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Slack or WNW in S).
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: S above N below PMSL: below (cyclonic).
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Slack or W).
27-10 TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (W).
JMA - issued - 040620
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL below normal (slack NW)
6J-12 TEMP: below normal PPN: Eire below elsewhere above normal PMSL: below normal (NW).
13-19 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (Slack) .
20-3J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: SW below elsewhere above normal (Slack WNW) .
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260620
26-5jul TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but S/SE 40% prob below
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but N Scotland above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but N Scotland 40% prob above normal
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210620
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160620
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but in England 40% prob below normal
26-5Jl TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but in S of England 40% prob below normal
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% chance far N Scotland above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110620
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N half Scotland above normal, elsewhere below
1Jl-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N above normal 40% below 60% elsewhere below normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but N Scotland 60% prob above
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060620
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal 40% below 60%
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal 40% below 60%
26-5Jly TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below N above 80% below 20%
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : far N above normal elsewhere below
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010620
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : belopw normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : far N above elsewher below
21-30 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : far N above elsewhere below
1J-10 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : far N above elsewhere below
June 2020single issue forecasts issued late December/Early Jan.
UKMO contingency - 260520
June: Above or well above average -only about 5% of solutions are near or below average. Median value about 1.5C above average.
PPN:
June: Two clusters below average and one above, below average most likely about a 70% prob.
CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
JUN E England below, SW England, W Wales, Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
JUN Eastern two thirds of England above normal. Scotland, N Ireland and Eire below, elsewhere normal
Next full month July 2020 (number of runs) [running total]
UKMO contingency - 290620
Jul: Above normal most likely. There are three main clusters: one below, one near normal and one above although overall about 70% of solutions are above normal
PPN:
Jul: Above normal or well above normal slightly more likely than below normal. Solutions are split and well spread across the climate range. Could imply would not take much of a shift to be a drier or wetter period.
NOAA - CFS2 - 290620 - valid for July 2020
TEMP: N and W normal elsewhere above
PPN : far NW normal elsewhere below normal
NOAA - CFS2 - 250620 - valid for July 2020
TEMP: above normal 8/8 [23/25]
PPN : below normal 8/8 [NW below 25/25 SE below 14/25]
NOAA - CFS2 - 170620 - valid for July 2020
TEMP: above normal 6/6
PPN : N and W below normal. S and E normal (3/6) or in SE England possibly above normal (3/6)
NOAA - CFS2 - 110620 - valid for July 2020
TEMP: above 6/8 normal 2/8
PPN : NW below normal 8/8 SE below normal 2/8 otherwise normal
NOAA - CFS2 - 030620 - valid for July 2020
TEMP: above normal 3/3
PPN : normal or below normal 3/3
CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
JUL SE England below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
JUL normal
Graphcs will appear below as available.
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
NASA 050320
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
ECMWF monthly EFFIS
WMO monthly
NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration
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