SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue June 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue






Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -270720- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.

UKMO 230720 - 27th July to 20th August 2020 - Mostly unsettled or changeable with rain or showers but with some shorter drier spells - onle lasting a few days in the south but perhaps with a more widely settled spell around Mid August. Temperatures near normal perhaps a little cool for many but warmer at times in the S and E.
UKMO 160720 - 20th July to 13th August 2020 - A good deal of dry weather especilly for the southern half of UK but some showers or rain in the north. The more unsettled weather in the north probably spreading to many parts later in July and at times in August. Temperature average or cooler in the North but average or warm in the osuth and perhaps briefly very warm before the end of July.
UKMO 090720 - 13th July to 6th August 2020 - Predominantly a good deal of fine and dry weather althouth the N and NW may continue to see some rain or showers and there is a risk that this may briefly extemt south from time to time. Later though drier weather may extend to most areas. Temperatures near normal but warm at times in tyhe south.
UKMO 020720 - 7th July to 31th July 2020 - Unsettled start for many and cool in the north but trending less unsettled with longer drier spells and warmer temperatures for many.
UKMO 300620 - 4th July to 28th July 2020 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy at times but the E/SE of England becoming less unsettled and around mid month and a temporary drier spell may develop more widely except in the N/NW. A further drier spells is possible later in July. Temperature cool at times in the N and W elsewhere near average becoming warm in the drier spells.


CFS2 Data 220720
23-29 TEMP: below normal PPN: mostly above normal but far N normal and the far S possibly below normal
30-5A TEMP: below normal PPN: Eire and the N above elsewhere normal
6A-12 TEMP: Wales and S half England normal elsewhere below PPN: England and Wales below elsewhere normal
13-19 TEMP: Wales and S half England normal elsewhere below PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 140720
15-21 TEMP: S above elsewhere below PPN: N may be above elsewhere below
22-28 TEMP: S above elsewhere normal PPN: mostly below but N normal
29-4A TEMP: S above elsewhere below PPN: normal
5A-11 TEMP: S above elsewhere below PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 080720
9J-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or below normal more especially in the S
16-22 TEMP: normal but above in south PPN: normal or below normal more especially in the S
23-29 TEMP: N below S above PPN: normal
30-5A TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 010720
2J-8J TEMP: below normal PPN: N above S normal
9J-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: N normal S below
16-22 TEMP: N below S above PPN: N above S below
23-29 TEMP: N below S above PPN: N above S below



ECMWF 200720
20-26 TEMP: below normal PPN: N and W Scotland above S Scotland/N England normal elsewhere below
26-2A TEMP: below normal PPN: S of England normal or below elsewhere above or well above
3A-9A TEMP: N and W below elsewhere normal PPN: Cornwall above elsewher below
10-16 TEMP: SE England normal elsewhere below PPN: England and Wales below elsewhere normal or above
17-23 TEMP: SE England normal elsewhere below PPN: SW England below elsewhere above
24-30 TEMP: SE England normnal or above elsewhere below PPN: mostly below normal locally above in NW Scotland

ECMWF 130720
13-19 TEMP: normal but below near west coasts of; Eire, Scotland, Wales and SW England PPN: below normal locally above in W Scotland and N Coasts of N Ireland
20-26 TEMP: below normal but S of England normal and locally above in central southern England PPN: NW Scotland above elsewhere below
27-2A TEMP: below normal locally normal in SE England PPN: above normal in Wales, England and E Scotland elsewhere below normal
3A-9A TEMP: SE England normal elsewhere below PPN: N half Scotland above elsewhere below
10-16 TEMP: SE England normal elsewhere below PPN: N and W Scotland above elsewhere below
17-23 TEMP: SE England normal elsewhere below PPN: SE England normal elsewhere above and in places well above normal

ECMWF 060720
6J-12 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but a band across Eire N Wales and N Midlands above normal
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
20-26 TEMP: normal locally above in SE England PPN: below normal
27-2A TEMP: normal locally above in SE England PPN: above normal locally berlow in central S England
3A-9A TEMP: normal locally above in SE England PPN: W Eire and NW UK above elsewhere below
10-16 TEMP: normal locally above in SE England PPN: below normal



JMA - issued - 220720
28day mean - Temp S of England above elsewhere below PPN above normal PMSL below normal (W).
25-31 TEMP: S of England above elsewhere below PPN: above normal PMSL: far S above elsewhere below (W).
1A-7A TEMP: S and E England above elsewhere below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW slack).
8A-21 TEMP: Eire and W Scotland below elsewhere above PPN: Ireland and Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL: Below (NW)

JMA - issued - 160720
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal except far N Scotland above PMSL above normal (SLack W with H in S).
18-24 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but far N Scotland above PMSL: above normal (W in N ridge over S).
25-31 TEMP: below normal but N Scotland above PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W).
1A-14 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but N Scotland above PMSL: W above E below (WNW).

JMA - issued - 080720
28day mean - Temp below normal except SE England PPN below normal PMSL above normal (WNW).
11-17 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H over S).
18-24 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: S below normal N above (Slack W).
25-7A TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: S below normal N above (Slack W).

JMA - issued - 010720
28day mean - Temp mostly below perhaps SE above PPN Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL N below S above (WNW).
4J-10 TEMP: mostly below perhaps SE above PPN: Ireland and Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL: N below S above (WNW).
11-17 TEMP: mostly below perhaps far S and SE above PPN: N above S below PMSL: NW above SE below (NW).
18- TEMP: mostly below perhaps SE above PPN: N above S below PMSL: below normal (WNW).



CMA 60 member Ensemble issued date 210720 last data 19th
21-30 TEMP: N and W below elsewhere above
PPN : below normal
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
20 -29 TEMP: above normal but W normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date due 160720
16-25 TEMP: N/NW below S/SE above
PPN : below normal but above in far N Scotland
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but above in far N Scotland
5A-14 TEMP: above normal but 40% prob Eire below
PPN : below normal but 60% prob above in far N Scotland
15-24 TEMP: above normal but 60% prob Eire below
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110720
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% prob above in far N Scotland
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060720
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal locally above in far N Scotland
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal locally above in far N Scotland
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below normal
5A-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010720
01-10 TEMP: below normal perhaps above in far S
PPN : N above S below
11-20 TEMP: near normal perhaps below in N and above in S
PPN : above normal 60% below normal 40%
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
31-9A TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal


July 2020single issue forecasts issued late June/early July.


UKMO contingency - 290620
Jul: Above normal most likely. There are three main clusters: one below, one near normal and one above although overall about 70% of solutions are above normal
PPN:
Jul: Above normal or well above normal slightly more likely than below normal. Solutions are split and well spread across the climate range. Could imply would not take much of a shift to be a drier or wetter period.



CanSIPS 300620
TEMP:
JUL N and W normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JUL Eire, SE Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere below


Next full month August 2020 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 270720
TEMP:
AUG: Fairly strong signal for near normal temperatures. Distribution is fairly evenly split either side of average perhaps just favouring above normal.

PPN:
AUG: Three perhaps four clusters, two below and two above normal. The strongest cluster is well above average. Above average rainfall seems more likely but may bot be uniform across the UK.

NOAA - CFS2 - 220720 - valid for August 2020
TEMP: NW near normal perhaps a hint of belopw normal. SE normal or above normal
PPN : normal at times mainly in N half of area, elsewhere mostly below normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 150720 - valid for August 2020
TEMP: normal locally below in NW
PPN : below normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 090720 - valid for August 2020
TEMP: normal perhaps above in parts of England especially the SE
PPN : below normal or normal but risk ov above normal in far NW and E England.

NOAA - CFS2 - 010720 - limited runs valid for August 2020
TEMP: above normal
PPN : normal but below in S/SW



CanSIPS 300620
TEMP:
AUG most of England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
AUG normal but below in NW Ireland, NW Scotland and SE England




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2

NASA 050320
NASA

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

WMO monthly
WMO


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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