SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue December 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -300120- (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 300120 - 4th to 26th February 2020 - Unsettled weather with rain or showers and some snow for northern areas but in the south turning drier, more settled, with sunny spells but risk of fog and frost developing overnight. This drier weather extending further north for a time before unsettled types return more widely in the north. Temeratures normal to mild initially and again later in the North but otherwise normal and trending colder.
UKMO 230120 - 27th January to 19th February 2020 - Unsettled and at tims windy period with rain or showers. Some snow at times on northern hills. Some drier spells for a time in South or SE but a more settled spell is possible towards mid February which may extend to all areas for a time. Temperatures mild at times, but some colder intervals especially in the north and later colder as more settled weather develops later.
UKMO 160120 - 20th January to 12th February 2020 - A settled period of weather is likely initially with near or even above normal temperatures but trending slowly colder, especially in central and some southern areas as frost and fog develops and is slow to clear during the day. Early in February, unsettled weather with rain or showers and mainly hill snow is likely to return to northern areas.
UKMO 090120 - 14th January to 5th February 2020 - Unsettled weather with rain or showers becoming confined to NW parts as high pressure develops across the south. Initially milder than average (though colder in windier spells across the north) but trending neaer normal and in places a little below as frost and fog develops in the hight pressure.
UKMO 020120 - 6th to 29th January 2020 - NW of UK unsettled with wet and at tiomes windy weather with mostly above average temperatures though some colder intervals possible with snow over mountains. Elsewhere mostly drier though some patchy rain possible at times, risk of fog and some frost with overall near normal temperatures.


CFS2 Data 290120
30-5F TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal
6F-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal but normal in S
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal but far south could be below

CFS2 Data 220120
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: far N above elsewhere normal
30-5F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
6F-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: far N above elsewhere normal or below
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 150120
16-22 TEMP: N normal elsewhere below PPN: below normal
23-29 TEMP: N normal or above elsewhere normal or below PPN: below normal but N Scotland aboe
30-5F TEMP: above normal PPN: SW England may be below otherwise normal but Scotland may be above
6F-12 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal but Scotland may be above

CFS2 Data 080120
9J-15 TEMP: S above normal, N normal or above PPN: above normal but SE may be normal
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
30-5F TEMP: normal but above normal in S PPN: normal locally above in W and S

CFS2 Data 311219
1J-7J TEMP: Above normal PPN: North normal elsewhere below normal
8J-14 TEMP: Above normal N above S below areas of normal in between.
15-21 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal locally normal in S
22-28 TEMP: Above normal PPN: normal but above in N



ECMWF 270120
27-2F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal in western exposures elsewhere normal
3F-9F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal in NW Scotland, below normal ion Eire Wales and SW third of England elsewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal most areas but normal in E of England
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal most areas but normal in E of England
24-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: W and NW above normal, S and E below normal also E Eire.
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly belopw normal locally above in NW Highland Scotland

ECMWF 200120
20-26 TEMP: SW normal elsewhere above PPN: missing data
27-2F TEMP: N normal S above PPN: above normal especially western exposures
3F-9F TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in far SW but above in NW Eire, W Scotland and NW England
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above, Wales and SW England below elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: Far NW Eire, W and NW England Scotland above, S Wales and South third of England below, elsewhere normal
24-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: NW Scotland above parts of S and E Scotland and SE England normal but most areas below normal

ECMWF 130120
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: W and SW UK and Eire above normal, locally below in NE Scotland elsewhere normal
20-26 TEMP: N above normal S below normal PPN: below normal
27-2F TEMP: above normal PPN: NW UK, W Wales and W half of Eire above normal elsewhere normal
3F-9F TEMP: above normal PPN: NW Scotland above normal, locally below normal in SE England, elsewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: S of England and S Wales also NE Scotland below normal, elsewhere above normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: W and Central Scotland, NW Eire and NW England above elsewhere normal but S coast of England below normal

ECMWF 060120
6J-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: S and E of UK normal elsewhere above normal
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: W and SW UK and Eire above normal elsewhere normal
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW Eire, NW England and W Scotland above normal. E England and SW England below normal elsewhere normal
27-2F TEMP: above normal PPN: NW UK and NW half of Eire upland Wales above normal elsewhere normal
3F-9F TEMP: above normal PPN: Cornwall and parts of Kent below, W Eire, NW England and W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: W Eire and W Scotland above elsewhere mostly below normal



JMA - issued - 290120
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN far N above normal elsewhere below PMSL above normal (SW strong in N).
1F-7F TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly above normal PMSL: Belopw in N above in S (WNW).
8F-14 TEMP: above normal PPN far NW above normal elsewhere below PMSL above normal (SW strong in N).
15-28 TEMP: above normal PPN far NW above normal elsewhere below PMSL well above normal (SW strong in N - H over S).

JMA - issued - 220120
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong WSW).
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well below (gale WSW).
1F-7F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but SE England below PMSL: N below S above (W).
8F-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but SE England below PMSL: N below S above (W).

JMA - issued - 160120
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (H in S W in N).
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL well above normal (H over S, W in far N).
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal in N below in S PMSL: above normal in S and below in N (WNW).
1F-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H in S, W in N).

JMA - issued - 080120
28day mean - Temp Above normal PPN Above normal locally below normal in SE PMSL NW below SE above (gale SW) .
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: Above normal locally below normal in SE PMSL: PMSL NW below SE above (gale SW).
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: Below normal but NW Scotland above PMSL: above normal (H in S SW in N).
25-7F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but SE England below PMSL: above normal (SW strong in N ).

JMA - issued - 010120
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN NW above normal elsewhere below PMSL above normal but normal in N. (H in south strong WSW in N) .
4J-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: SE third of UK below, elsewhere above normal PMSL: N below S above (Gale WSW) .
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: far N above normal PMSL: above normal (H in S strong SW in N).
18-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: far NW above normal PMSL: above normal (H in S strong SW in N).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260120
26-4F TEMP: above normal risk of normal or below in far N
PPN : above normal
5F-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : Most likely below in S most likely above in N
25-3M TEMP: above normal
PPN : Most likely below in S most likely above in N

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210120
21-30 TEMP: above normal risk of normal or below in far S
PPN : mostly below normal but locally above in S
31-9F TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but locally below in S
20-29 TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN : mostly below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160118
17-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal
26-4F TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal
5F-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal b ut NW could be below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110120
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal
31-9F TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal but 40% prob below in the South
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above normal but 60% prob below normal in southern half of UK.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 050120 data for 6th awaited will update is available later - updated 140120.
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : slightly above normal but some central area/Midlands below normal
26-4F TEMP: slightly above normal - 40% prob below normal in South
PPN : slightly above normal
5F-14 TEMP: slightly above normal - 40% prob below normal in Eire
PPN : slightly above normal but N half of area may be below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010120
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 20% chance of below in S
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal
31-9F TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly above but locally slightly below in Midlands and perhaps Eire




January 2020single issue forecasts issued late December/Early Jan.



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
JAN above normal
PPN :
JAN below normal but far NW Scotland above




UKMO contingency - 271219
TEMP:
Jan: Above normal most likely. Median forecast Temperature shifted over 1 deg above average (1981-2010). Only about 15% of solutions are below average.

PPN:
Jan: Above average most likely. Distribution shifted towards wetter solutions, about 35% of model rusn suggest drier than average




Next full month FEBRUARY 2020 (number of runs) [running total]



UKMO contingency - 270120

UKMO says stratospheric vortex stronger than average and likely to remain so. EC and GFS suggest warming evening likely in first week of February with possible split in vorext but GFS 15 day suggest 10hPa vortex restrengthens at least for a time though with further "Canadian" warming. TEMP:
Feb: Very few model runs normal or below (UKMO say 5% prob or less of colder than average). Median anomaly about plus 2 C.
PPN:
Feb: Large spread in solutions with one cluster above and one below average, slightly favouring above average rainfall. Suggestion of High pressure in the south might infer a split solution with the north wetter and south drier.



NOAA - CFS2 - 300120 - valid for February 2020
TEMP: above normal 7/7. Summary above normal [30/30]
PPN : above normal 7/7 Summery above normal, in north [30/30] in south [17/30]

NOAA - CFS2 - 230120 - valid for February 2020
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : N: above normal 4/7, normal 3/7. S: above normal 1/7 normal 6/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 160120 - valid for February 2020
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : N above normal 7/7. S normal 5/7 below normal 2/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 090120 - valid for February 2020
TEMP: above normal 8/8
PPN : above normal in N and W 8/8. In S and E above normal 5/8 otherwise 3/8 Normal.

NOAA - CFS2 - 010120 - valid for February 2020 - 4 runs
TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
FEB above normal
PPN :
FEB N normal S below




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC



WMO monthly
WMO




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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