Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue December 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue
Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 310119. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike
Met Office regular update text for 30days
Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 310119 - 5 February to 1st March 2019 - Less cold with rain and hill snow spreading from the west (may not reach some eastern areas). Drier and colder generally around mid month although the NW may remain unsettled. Later in February probably colder, possibly drier more widely but with wintry showers in places. Uncertain whether further pulses of milder wetter weather (hill snow) may spreading from the west.
UKMO 290119 - 2 to 26 February 2019 - Cold with chance of turning even colder although the south may see some temporary milder spells. Rain/sleet and at times snow are likely. Increased risk of significant snowfall even in England, but no specifics. Windy at times.
UKMO 240119 - 29 January to 22 February 2019 - Fairly unsettled with rain or showers and hill snow, risk of some snow to lower levels in places. Colder than normal with risk of frosts. Later in February chance of milder wetter weather for the S/SW of UK bringing an increased risk of snow on northern edge of any rain areas.
UKMO 180119 - 23 January to 16 February 2019 - Generally cold, frosts at times. Some showery snow sleet or rain spreading from the east. Risk of longer spells of rain at times in NW, falling as snow over hills and perhaps lower levels at times. Risk in February of rain sleet and or snow spreading across the south of UK - northern extent uncertain as are areas for snow risk, though not confined to hills.
UKMO 150119 - 21 January to 14 February 2019 - A cold period is likely with more frequent frosts. Some unsettled spells bringing windy weather with rain and hill snow are likely, some snow possibly to lower levels too. Later parts of N/NW becoming drier but the south may remain more changeable with increased but uncertain snow risk in early February.
UKMO 080119 - 12 January to 5 February 2019 - Unsettled with rain or showers and hill snow, mainly in the N but at times further south but the south likely to see the best of the drier weather. Some milder spells but often near normal and later into February turning colder.
UKMO 020119 - 7 to 31 January 2019 - Initially a good deal of dry weather, cloudy at times with a little drizzle in the North. Risk of fog and frost especially in South. Becoming wetter and windier in the north around mid month with snow mainly on hills. Elsewhere still mainly dry but with less frost and fog risk and trending milder for a time again in South. Later in January uncertain risk of much colder weather with increased risk of fog frost and snow.
CFS2 Data 290119
30-5F TEMP: below normal PPN: Scotland below far S/SW above elsewhere normal
6F-12 TEMP: normal perhaps above in England and Wales PPN: normal or above
13-19 TEMP: uncertain locally above/below normal mainly normal PPN: normal change above in far SW and below in far N
20-26 TEMP: uncertain locally above/below normal mainly normal PPN: normal change above in far SW and below in far N
CFS2 Data 220119
23-29 TEMP: Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below PPN: normal
30-5F TEMP: below normal PPN: normal but SW UK and SW Eire above
6F-12 TEMP: England and Wales below elsewhere normal PPN: normal
13-19 TEMP: Normal or above PPN: normal but above in SW
CFS2 Data 150119
16-22 TEMP: below normal but N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal PPN: below normal but N normal
23-29 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal
30-5F TEMP: uncertain prob below normal PPN: normal but above in SW
6F-12 TEMP: normal chance locally below PPN: normal in N above in S
CFS2 Data 080119
8J-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
15-21 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal
22-28 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
29-4F TEMP: below normal PPN: normal but above in S
CFS2 Data 010119
2J-8J TEMP: far N above elsewhere below PPN: below normal
9J-15 TEMP: England and Walesd below elsewhere above PPN: below normal
16-22 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal
23-29 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal locally above
JMA - issued - 300119
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL S below normal N above normal (SW but slack in South implies variable patterns).
2F-8F TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal b ut Eire and N ireland above PMSL: above normal (WSW but slack in S).
9F-15 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but England above PMSL: N above S below (slack) .
16-1M TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but far SW may be above PMSL: below normal.
JMA - issued - 230112
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal but SW England above PMSL NW above elsewhere below (NW).
26-1F TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (NW) High to W of UK.
2F-8F TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but SW England above PMSL: below normal (NW) High to W of UK.
9F-22 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but SW England above PMSL: NW below normal SW above(Slack NW)
JMA - issued - due by 18th
28day mean - Temp Below normal PPN N below S above PMSL below normal or well below in S (W very slack flow).
19-25 TEMP: Below normal PPN: Below normal but SW above PMSL: S below or well below N slightly below (SLACK SE) .
26-1F TEMP: Below normal PPN: Below normal but SW above PMSL: Far N above S below or well below (E).
2F-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: nelow normal (SW).
JMA - issued - 090119
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL below normal (NW).
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (Strng WNW) .
19-25 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (NW).
26-8F TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but above in S PMSL: below normal (NNW weak).
JMA - issued - 020119
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (SW) .
5J-11 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL above norma; (H over S W in N).
12-18 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below normal (strong WSW) .
19-1F TEMP: above normal PPN below normal but risk of above in far SW PMSL: N above S below (SW).
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260119
26-4F TEMP: below normal but 40% far SW normal or above
PPN : above normal but N Scotland 40% prob below
5F-14 TEMP: near or slightly above normal
PPN : N below elsewhere above
15-24 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : below normal but 20% chance of above in S
25-6M TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : above normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210119
21-30 TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal small risk above in far S
31-9F TEMP: near normal but 60% prob below normal in England and Wales
PPN : N: below, S: 60% prob above 40% below
10-19 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : N: 40% prob below, otherwise above normal
20-29 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : above normal but parts of England 60% prob below
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160119
16-25 TEMP: most areas below normal locally 40% prob near normal in SW of UK
PPN : below normal
26-4F TEMP: 60% prob near or above and 40% belopw (newer runs are below)
PPN : below normal
5F-14 TEMP: near or above
PPN :N below normal S above
15-24 TEMP: near or below normal
PPN : near or below normal but small risk of abve in S
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110119
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but 40% above in far N Scotland
21-30 TEMP: near or below normal (below in England)
PPN :below normal but 40% above in far N Scotland
31-9F TEMP: 60% below 40% near normal
PPN : below normal but 20% chance above in SE England
10-19 TEMP: below normal but in England 60% below and 40% above
PPN : belopw normal but 40% prob above in S
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060119
6J-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
16-25 TEMP: below normal
PPN : N above elsewhere below
26-4F TEMP: near normal
PPN : below normal
5F-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : NW below normal elsewhere above
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010119
1J-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but far S below
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9F TEMP: above normal
PPN : S above normal 80% N below normal
ECMWF weekly 140119
14-20 near normal but slightly colder in SE Eire, England Wales S and NE Scotland
21-27 much colder all areas
28-3F much colder all areas
4F-10 N Ireland and E/S Eire slightly colder elsewhere much colder than normal
14-20 slightly drier
21-27 average but below in NW Scotland, W Eire, NW Midlands and slightly wetter in NE Scotland and SE England
28-3F Average but slightly below in N Ireland, W Eire, Wales, NW England, NW Midlands and much drier in NW Scotland
4F-10 average but slightly below in W Eire Wales NW Midlands NW England and SW Scotland well below in NW Scotland.
ECMWF weekly 060119
7-13J S normal elsewhere above normal
14-20 SE Eire SE England and NE Scotland near normal elsewhere above
21-27 below or well below
28-3F below or well below
7-13J drier or mouch drier than normal
14-20 NW slightly above elsewhere normal or below
21-27 N Ireland and NE Eire Wales and England except the NW average elsewhere below
28-3F W and NW parts and SW Wales below , elsewhere average but NE Midlands above
ECMWF weekly 311218
31-6J SW UK below W Eire and Scotland above elsewhere normal
7-13 SE England colder, SW England S Eire and E England normal, elsewhere above normal
14-20 Wales and SW slightly milder elsewhere normal
21-27 S slightly milder elsewhere normal
31-6J E slightly drier elsewhere much drier than normal
7-13 slightly drier
14-20 NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal especially in W
21-27 W EIre and NW Scotland drier elsewhere mainly above average
JANUARY single issue forecasts issued late December.
UKMO contingency - 191218
TEMP: January: Slightly colder than average. Roughly 60/40 split in solutions colder/warmer.
PPN: January: Met Office says below more likely then above. BUT there are three cluster two above and one below so it is not a clear cut and there is a large cluster near average.
JAN above normal
JAN below normal
Next full month FEBRUARY 2019
(number of runs) [running total]
UKMO contingency - 280119
February: UKMO "below normal more likely than above". Ensemble plots shifted toward below or well below normal roughly 70/30% colder/milders
PPN: UKMO suggest split solutions with S wwtter and N less so complicating the all UK solution.
February: UKMO "above average more likely than below". There are a number of solutions showning above normal BUT a larger number showing below normal.
NOAA - CFS2 - 290119 - valid for February 2019
TEMP: below normal 6/6
PPN : S of UK above 6/6 N Scotland below 6/6 elsewhere normal 6/6
NOAA - CFS2 - 230119 - valid for February 2019
TEMP: N: below normal 5/7 normal 2/7 S: below 3/7 normal 4/7
PPN : S of UK and S Eire above 7/7 N Scotland below 7/7 elsewhere normal 7/7
NOAA - CFS2 - 160118 - valid for February 2019
TEMP: NW UK and Eire 7/8 colder 1/8 normal SE UK and Eire 6/8 colder 2/8 normal
PPN : North below normal 8/8, South above normal 8/8, middle variable area normal.
NOAA - CFS2 - 080119 - valid for February 2019
TEMP: Below normal 1/6 normal 5/6 latest output in colder.
PPN : Above normal but N normal or below 6/6
NOAA - CFS2 - 020119 - limited data - valid for February 2019
TEMP: near normal locally above in SW above normal
PPN : normal but below in N
CanSIPS - 010119
FEB Eire N Irelnd and N half Scotland above elsewhere normal
FEB below normal
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
ECMWF monthly 121018
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
CFS2 MAX and MIN
CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
NMME MAX and MIN not available
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly
Temp and PPN rate probability NMME
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk
compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014
). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the
help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration
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