SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue December 2017 data
Seasonal - latest issue






Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 290118. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 290118 - 3 to 27 Feb 2018 - Unsettled start mild in S but colder in N with wintry showers. Soon turning drier and less mild/colder weather into the south, and this may extend further north in the middle of the month. Some wintry showers/snow flurries may occur in the East. Later in period probable return to milder/changeable weather with wind and rain and hill sbnow for the north.
UKMO 250118 - 30 Jan to 23 Feb 2018 - Unsettled, rain or showers these wintry in N, mainly on hills. Windy at times mainly in N and perhaps more wideply later in Feb. Trending to drier weather for a period from early February, especially in S but later in February returning to unsettled types. Temperatures near normal, some colder spells and trending colder in the settled spell in the S.
UKMO 180118 - 23 Jan to 16 Feb 2018 - Unsettled, rain or showers wintry in N, mainly on hills. Some milder spells in S but also colder NW types too. Some drier intervals with frost including in the S. Temperature averaging out near normal.
UKMO 110118 - 16 Jan to 9 Feb 2018 - Unsettled. Windy peiods with rain or showers, snow mostly on hills and mainly in N. Risk of frost in less windy spells between weather systems. Temperatures mixed, above and below normal for periods but generally feeling cold in the wind.
UKMO 040118 - 9 Jan to 2 Feb 2018 - Slow moving pattern with High pressure near E of UK hence a cold period with a dry spells but in W Altantic systems edging in at times bringing rain and some snow. Later in Jan a return to unsettled patterns with wind and rain (hill snow) as temperatures retrn to normal values.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 240118
25-31 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal in N half elsewhere normal
1F-7F TEMP: Above normal PPN: Normal in N elsewhere below normal
8F-14 TEMP: N Scotland above elsewhere normal PPN: Normal perhaos above in far N
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in S

CFS2 Data 170118
18-24 TEMP: below normal PPN: NE below normal SW half of UK and Eire above normal
25-31 TEMP: N below S normal or above PPN: above normal
1F-7F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
8F-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal

CFS2 Data 10018
11-17 TEMP: below normal PPN: Eire and SW UK above elsewhere normal
18-24 TEMP: normal or below PPN: SW UK above elsewhere normal
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: ormal or below
1F-7F TEMP: normal perhaps above in N PPN: ormal or below

CFS2 Data 030118
4J-10 TEMP: N below or normal S above PPN: N normal locally below far N, elsewhere above
11-17 TEMP: mostly above PPN: N normal or above elsewhere normal
18-24 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal or above
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above

CFS2 Data 271217
28-3J TEMP: S UK above elsewhere normal PPN: above normal but Scotland may be bormal or below
4J-10 TEMP: S UK above elsewhere normal but Eire may be below PPN: mostly above normal
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: S normal elsewhere above normal



JMA - issued - 240118
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (WNW but slack in High in S).
27-2F TEMP: above normal PPN: N Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal PMSL: above or well above (WNW strong in N High in S slack).
3F-9F TEMP: Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above normal (mean wind W in N elsewhere slack in High).
10-23 TEMP: Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (mean wind W in N elsewhere slack in High).

JMA - issued - 170118
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal especially S (SW stromng in N) .
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (strong WSW).
27-2F TEMP: above normal but below in S PPN: below normal PMSL: High over S (W in N, slack in S).
3F-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (strong SW in N slack in S).

JMA - issued - 100118
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Gale W).
13-19 TEMP: Above normal but Eire and NW UK below PPN: above normal PMSL: well below normal (Gale W).
20-26 TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: below normal (strong WNW).
27-9F TEMP: Above normal PPN: Above normal PMSL: below normal (strong WSW) .

JMA - issued - 030118
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong W).
6J-12 TEMP: below normal PPN: Below normal loally above in SW PMSL: COLL but above to NE and below in SW.
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (gale W/WNW).
20-2F TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (gale W/WNW).

JMA - issued - 271217
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal in N above in S (gale WSW) .
30-5J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well below normal especially in N (Gale W) .
6J-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (gale WSW).
13-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: abive normal but N below (Gale WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260118 (60 members based on data up to 24th)
26-4F TEMP: above normal
PPN : N and NW of UK above elsewhere below
5F-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N and NW UK and Eire above elsewhere below
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : near normal chance below in S and above in N
25-6M TEMP: 66% above 33% below
PPN : 66% above 33% below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210118
21-30 TEMP: above normal but N Scotland may be below
PPN : above normal
31-9F TEMP: Below normal
PPN : Below normal but S may be above (40%)
10-19 TEMP: Above normal (20% chance below)
PPN : Above normal
20-1M TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160118
16-25 TEMP: Below normal but above in S
PPN : above normal
26-4F TEMP: above normal
PPN : N slightly below elsewhere slightly above
5F-14 TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN : N slightly below elsewhere slightly above
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed slightly below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110118
11-20 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: below normal but far S may be above
PPN : above normal but N may be below
31-9F TEMP: above normal but N Scotland may be below
PPN : above normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but N Scotland may be below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060118
6J-15 TEMP: N most likely below S may be above - newer runs favour colder all areas
PPN : above normal but chance that N Scotland could be below
16-25 TEMP: above normal but N may be below (40% prob)
PPN : above normal
26-4F TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
5F-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010118
1J-10 TEMP: below normal but far S/SW may be above
PPN : Above normal but fat N may be below
11-20 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Above normal
21-30 TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Above normal but chance of below in parts of S of UK
31-9F TEMP: Above normal
PPN : Above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 261217
26-4J TEMP: Above normal but 40% below normal in the N/NW UK and Eire
PPN : above normal
5J-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal but in S/SW UK and Eire 40% prob below normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N/NW 60% prob above S/SE (UK and Eire) 60% below normal
25-3F TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal




January single issue forecasts issued earlier

UKMO Contingency 181217
TEMP:
JAN: UKMO above more likely than below but allowing for a cold spell in month. Analysis: Large spread of solutions slightly shifted to above normal but with two small clusters one slightly below the other above normal but also signs of a chance of well above normal. Median value looks close to normal.
PPN:
UKMO "For January, and January-February-March as a whole, above-average precipitation is more likely than below-average precipitation. The likelihood of impacts from heavy rainfall and high winds is greater than usual".
JAN: Analysis: Although there are more solutions than usual in the much wetter than norml there is also an increase in numbers in the slgihtly below normal range. Two clusters the largest one shows slightly below normal and the other well above normal so it is not clear cut that January will be wetter for all of UK.


ECMWF - monthly - 141217 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JAN S of England slightly above normal elsewhere normal (+/- 0.5F)
PPN:
JAN NW Scotland below elsewhere above, largest anomaly SW Wales
PMSL:
JAN below or well beloww normal especially near and WSW of UK/Eire

> CanSIPS - 301217
TEMP:
JAN: above normal
PPN :
JAN : N Scotland, N Ireland, NW Eire and far SE England above normal elsewhere normal


Next full month February 2018 (number of runs) [running total]



UKMO contingency 290118
TEMP: UKMO - Feb colder than normal but season above normal.
FEB: There are a few more ensemble solutions indicating below normal than the above normal results and the main cluster seems to be 0.5 to 1C below 1981-2010 average. There is another cluster showing similar above average anomalies and a futher well below normal cluster. Uncertain 50%/40% colder/warmer 10% normal.
PPN: UKMO - Feb drier than normal and season no strong signal in favour of above or below average.
FEB: Roughly 30/60% split wetter/drier with two main clusters being below normal.


Running total Temp [N 24/24 above normal. S 23/24]. PPN [above normal S 7/24 N 8/24 below N 6/25 S 9/25 more favour near normal] NOAA - CFS2 250118 valid for February 2018
TEMP: above normal (N 7/7 S 6/7 1 near normal)
PPN : Above normal 1/7 normal 3/7 below normal 3/7

NOAA - CFS2 170118 valid for February 2018
TEMP: above normal (7/7)
PPN : normal or below in places (6/7) minority normal or above (1/7)

NOAA - CFS2 110118 valid for February 2018
TEMP: above normal (7/7)
PPN : above normal in N (7/7). in S normal 5/7 (2/7 above normal)

NOAA - CFS2 040118 (21 members) valid for February 2018
TEMP: above normal
PPN : N half Eire and N half of UK normal elsewhere above



ECMWF - 140118 valid for February 2018
TEMP: above normal
PPN : Above normal, well above in W Highland, NW England and W Wales, also W of Eire.

CanSIPS - 301217
TEMP:
FEB above normal
PPN :
FEB N Ireland and N Eire above, S and SE England below elsewhere normal





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 080118
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME

Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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