SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue Nivember 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue





Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated -271219- (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 271219 - 1st to 24th January 2020 - NW of UK unsettled, windy at times, with rain or showers though some snow for high ground at times though mostly mild temperatures for lower ground. SE of UK near normal temperatures and drier - but risk of fog and frost. NW/SE boudry shifting a further north or south at times.
UKMO 191219 - 24th December 2019 to 16th January 2020 - Unsettled start with wet and windy weather and milder than average temperature but from about the 26th turning drier and probably colder with risk of fog and frost. Unsettled weather, with wind rain and mainly hill snow, returning across the NW and extending erraticially to other areas at times and to most parts during early January - returning temperature to normal.
UKMO 121219 - 17th December 2019 to 9th January 2020 - Short drier spell with risk of frost and fog but soon turning unsettled with wet and windy weather, milder temperatures though with some snow over hills in north. Another drier and perhaps colder spell, with the risk of frost and fog, may develop in January especially in the south.
UKMO 031219 - 7th to 30th December 2019 - Unsettled period with wind and rain, also snow mainly for northern hills. Temperatures near normal or a little below normal but with some milder spells in the south. Late in December chance of turning drier and colder generally.
UKMO 271119 - 2nd to 16th December 2019 - Initially some showers in the N and E but then a fairly short dry period with night frosts and overall colder than average temperatures. Unsettled, at times windy, weather with rain or sbowers soon returning to Scotland and later extending to many areas - snow on high ground in the North. Temperature normal or a little below normal.


CFS2 Data 261219
27-2J TEMP: Above normal PPN: S below N above
3J-9J TEMP: Above normal PPN: N above S normal chance below in far S
10-16 TEMP: Above normal PPN: N above S normal
17-23 TEMP: Above normal PPN: normal or above

CFS2 Data 181219
19-25 TEMP: Above normal PPN: England and Wales above elsewhere normal
26-1J TEMP: Normal or above PPN: uncertain N may be below and S above otherwise normal
2J-8J TEMP: uncertain N normal or above, S could be below PPN: normal but risk of above in NW
9J-15 TEMP: normal chance above in S PPN: normal but above in S and W

CFS2 Data 111219
12-18 TEMP: Wales and S half England above elsewhere below normal PPN: Above normal
19-25 TEMP: Above normal PPN: normal but chance of below. Risk of above in Eire
26-1J TEMP: Uncertain above or below normal PPN: normal or below
2J-8J TEMP: Uncertain above or below normal PPN: normal locally above in Eire

CFS2 Data 021219
3D-9D TEMP: N above S normal or below PPN: N above elsewhere below
10-16 TEMP: S above N below PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above PPN: Above normal locally normal in S
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: N above S normal

CFS2 Data 261119
27-3D TEMP: below normal or normal PPN: below normal
4D-10 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal but above in N
11-17 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal
18-24 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal or above



JMA - issued - 251219
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN N above elsewheere below PMSL above normal (W. High just to S of UK).
28-3J TEMP: well above PPN: N above S below PMSL: far N below elsewhere above H in S (W).
4J-10 TEMP: above PPN: far N above elsewhere below PMSL: far N below elsewhere above (WSW strong).
11-24 TEMP: above PPN: below PMSL: well above (W) High over S and France.

JMA - issued - 181219
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN Eire and far W above elsewhere below PMSL SE above elsewhere below (Strong WSW) .
21-27 TEMP: above PPN: S above N below PMSL: well below (WSW).
28-3J TEMP: above PPN: below PMSL: above (WSW but H in S).
4J-17 TEMP: above PPN: Eire and N above elsewher below PMSL: NW below elsewhere above (WSW).

JMA - issued - 111219
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal but N Scotland below PMSL below (Strong WSW).
14-20 TEMP: above normal PPN: W above normal E below PMSL: Well below (SW very strong but cyc in far N).
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but N and E Scotland below PMSL: below normal (W).
28-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (WSW) .

JMA - issued - 041219
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong WSW).
7D-13 TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong WNW).
14-20 TEMP: N and W below S and E above normal PPN above normal PMSL well below normal (strong W).
21-3J TEMP: above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (strong WSW).

JMA - issued - 271119
28day mean - Temp above normal but Eire below PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Strong WSW) .
30-6D TEMP: mostly below PPN: SW above elsewhere below PMSL: above (NNW).
7D-13 TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: above normal PMSL: below or well below (WNW very strong) .
14-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (very strong WSW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 261119
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
5J-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below elsewhere above
25-3F TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 211219
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9J TEMP: N above S below
PPN : below normal (lower probs for Eire)
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mixed signal 40% prob above 40% prob S above inbetween below normal more likely.
20-29 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N Scotland below elsewhere above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 161219
16-25 TEMP: N/NE above elsewhere below
PPN : above normal but N Scotland 60% prob below normal
26-4J TEMP: 60% above 40% below
PPN : S 60% below N 60% above
5J-14 TEMP: N above S near normal
PPN : Eire and S of UK 60% prob above elsewhere 60% prob below normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N Scotland 80% below normal elsewhere above normal most likely.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111219 - web service back on line 121219
11-20 TEMP: below normal
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: 60% above 40% below
PPN : slightly above normal 40% chance of below in England
31-09 TEMP: slightly above
PPN : below normal but 40% chance of above in Eire
10-19 TEMP: 80% above normal
PPN : above normal but far N 20% prob below normal and S half England 40% prob below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061219 - web service back on line 121219
6D-15 TEMP: below normal
PPN : mostly above normal
16-25 TEMP: below normal
PPN : far N below normal elsewhere above normal
26-4J TEMP: mostly below normal
PPN : mostly above normal but Eire 49% prob below
5J-14 TEMP: mostly below normal
PPN : 60% below 40% above

CMA 40 member Ensemble issued date 011219 - web service back on line 121219
01-10 TEMP: 80% above normal
PPN : 60% above normal
11-20 TEMP: 80% above normal
PPN : 60% above normal
21-30 TEMP: 60% above normal
PPN : 60% above normal in central areas elsewhere 60% prob below normal 31-9J TEMP: 80% above normal
PPN : above normal




DECEMBER 2019single issue forecasts issued late November/Early December.



CanSIPS 301119
TEMP:
DEC mostly above normal
PPN :
DEC mostly above normal





UKMO contingency - 251119
TEMP:
DEC: Above normal most likely. Distribution shifted to above normal with less than 15% of solutions below average. Strongest cluster about 1 deg C above average.
PPN:
DEC: Above average rain is most likely. Main cluster suggest 15% above normal rainfall. Only about 20% of solutions suggest drier than average. Around 20% of solutions suggest about 70% higher rain total.




Next full month JANUARY 2020 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 271219
TEMP:
Jan: Above normal most likely. Median forecast Temperature shifted over 1 deg above average (1981-2010). Only about 15% of solutions are below average.

PPN:
Jan: Above average most likely. Distribution shifted towards wetter solutions, about 35% of model rusn suggest drier than average



NOAA - CFS2 - 271219 - valid for January 2020
TEMP: above normal (6/8)[25/27] normal (2/8)
PPN : above normal (5/8)[12/27] normal (3/8)[14/27]

NOAA - CFS2 - 191219 - valid for January 2020
TEMP: above normal (7/7)
PPN : above normal 4/7 normal 2/7 below normal 1/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 121219 - valid for January 2020
TEMP: above normal (10/10)
PPN : Mostly normal 9/10. Above normal 1/10. Also locally above normal in NE UK 1/10 SW UK 2/10 and below normal in NE UK 1/10.

NOAA - CFS2 - 021219 - valid for January 2020
TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal



CanSIPS 301119
TEMP:
JAN above normal
PPN :
JAN mostly above normal




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC



WMO monthly
WMO




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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