SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue November 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue





Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 271218. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days


Comment: 191218 increased support for colder types early January, UKMO CFS and CMA, but duration uncertain.
Comment: 071218 UKMO differs from CFS and JMA which are milder but there is some support from CMA.


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 271218 - 31 December 2018 - 22 January 2019 - Unsettled weather in the north/NW with rain and hill snow at times, this probably streading further south (perhaps in second sweek of January) bring colder windier weather to more areas and the risk of snow to lower levels in the North. Prior to this change other areas likely to be drier and although milder some fog and frost are also likely at times.
UKMO 191218 - 24 December 2018 - 17 January 2019 - Some rain in the west at first and at times across the north but drier weather in the east extending to most parts with increased risk of fog and frost. This drier colder type lasting into early January then the risk of weather systems encroaching from the SW bringing rain but also increased snow risk to some parts though probably not the SW. Colder generally in January.
UKMO 121218 - 17 December 2018 - 10 January 2019 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy for periods. Temperature recovering to near normal and at times mild except perhaps in the north where cold enough at times for some hill snow. Probably turning drier and colder early in the new year.
UKMO 061218 - 11 December 2018 - 4 January 2019 - Colder. Some dry weather but with the risk of showers in East, perhaps wintry in places. In the west, however, a risk of cloudier, windier weather with rain (hill snow in N) and less cold. Chance of milder wet and windy weather edging further east at times and more generally in the last week of December. Probably turning drier and colder again by the end of the year.
UKMO 031218 - 7 to 31 December 2018 - Unsettled with rain or showers (snow on northern hills) and windy at times but for a week or so around mid December drier weather is likely, especially in the south, with a risk of fog and frost. Mild with the wet weather but colder in the north at times and during the drier weather.
UKMO 281118 - 3 to 28 December 2018 - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy at times - some snow for the northern mountains but mostly normal or above normal temepratures. Eastern areas, however, probably drier and colder at times especially for a period around mid month.


CFS2 Data 261218
27-2J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
3J-9J TEMP: above normal PPN: normal perhaps below in SW Uk
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal or above normal

CFS2 Data 181218
19-25 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
26-1J TEMP: normal or above PPN: below normal but normal in N
2J-8J TEMP: below normal PPN: normal or below normal
9J-15 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal or above

CFS2 Data 091218
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: N normal S above normal
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal
31-6J TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in NW UK

CFS2 Data 061218
7D-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
14-20 TEMP: above normal but perhaps normal in N Ireland and Eire PPN: above normal
21-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
28-3J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but England and Wales normal

CFS2 Data 021218
3D-9D TEMP: above normal but Scotland normal PPN: above normal
10-16 TEMP: above normal but Scotland normal PPN: above normal in Eire and Scotland elsewhere normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above normal



JMA - issued - 261218
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL below normal (SW).
29-4J TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above normal (H in S).
5J-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).
12-25 TEMP: SE England above elsewhere below PPN: above normal PMSL: beow normal (WNW).

JMA - issued - 201218
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (SW).
22-28 TEMP: above normal (well above in S/SW) PPN below normal PMSL above normal (SW).
29-4J TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL well above normal (SW).
5J-11 TEMP: above normal PPN N above normal elsewhere below normal PMSL below normal (SW).

JMA - issued - 131218
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (Gale WSW).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: well belopw normal (Gale WSW).
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below and in N well below normal (Gale WNW) .
29-11 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: S above normal elsewhere below normal (Gale WSW)

JMA - issued - 051218
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal but far S above (gale WSW).
8D-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: NW above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (Strong SW).
15-21 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: above normal (strong WSW) .
22-4J TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (strong WSW) .


CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 261218
26-4J TEMP: above normal
PPN : NW UK above elsewhere below
5J-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : near or slightly above normal
15-24 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : mostly below normal
25-3F TEMP: near normal (40% below and 40% above - newest runs are below normal)
PPN : below nornal but S 40% prob above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 211218
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but far norm 20% prob below
31-9J TEMP: above normal
PPN : Scotland and Eire below elsewhere above
10-19 TEMP: above normal but Eire and N Ireland near normal
PPN : below normal
20-29 TEMP: S above noral elsewhere near normal 60% above 40%
PPN : Scotland and Eire below elsewhere mostly above

16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 40% prob far N below normal
26-4J TEMP: N 60% prob below normal 40% in S (60% above)
PPN : slightly above normal but N and W slightly below
5J-14 TEMP: Above normal but 40% prob below normal away from S England
PPN : above normal but 20% chance below in far N
15-24 TEMP: 60% prob above normal but 20% below and 20% normal
PPN : uncertain slightly above or slightly below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 111218
11-20 TEMP: N below S above
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: below normal
PPN : mostly above normal but N and Eire may be below
31-9J TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: below normal
PPN : mostly above normal but S may be below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 061218
6D-15 TEMP: N Scotland below elsewhere above
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: 60% prob below normal 40% above
PPN : below normal
26-4J TEMP: 20% prob below normal 80% above PPN : above normal
5J-14 TEMP: 60% prob below normal 40% above
PPN : Eire and N Ireland 60% prob above normal elsewhere 60% prob below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 011218 - updated 071218
1D-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 20% prob N/NE Scotland being normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob below normal in N, 40% in S.
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9J TEMP: 60% prob above 40% prob near or below normal
PPN : Below normal but 40% prob above normal in N




December single issue forecasts issued late November.



UKMO Contingency v2 031218
Temp December: Majority of solutions are above average but there is a sig cluster at just below. More likely above normal than below.
PPN December: marginally more solutions show above normal but sig cluster below normal and fewer solutions near normal suggest split solutions and may imply parts of UK drier others wetter.


CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
DEC England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
DEC Scotland normal elsewhere above (especially far S)




Next full month JANUARY 2019 (number of runs) [running total]



UKMO contingency - 191218
TEMP: January: Slightly colder than average. Roughly 60/40 split in solutions colder/warmer.
PPN:January: Met Office says below more likely then above. BUT there are three cluster two above and one below so it is not a clear cut and there is a large cluster near average.



NOAA - CFS2 - 27218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: Above normal, especilly Scotland 4/8, elsewhere normal 4/8
PPN : S England above 3/8, normal 3/8 above 2/8 elsewgre mainly N below normal 8/8

NOAA - CFS2 - 191218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: normal 2/7 above normal 5/7 (2 missing recent solutions are less mild)
PPN : S above normal (7/7) far north below normal (3/7) otherwise normal (7/7)

NOAA - CFS2 - 101218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: above normal 4/4 [10/10]
PPN : above normal 4/4 [10/10]

NOAA - CFS2 - 061218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: above normal 4/4 [6/6]
PPN : above normal 4/4 [6/6]

NOAA - CFS2 - 021218 - valid for January 2019
TEMP: above normal 2/2
PPN : above normal 2/2



CanSIPS 301118
TEMP:
JAN SW Eire and SW England normal elsewere above
PPN :
JAN normal




Graphcs
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly 121018
EC

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4



CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME


Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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