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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue July 2019 data
Seasonal - latest issue
Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 290819 (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike
Met Office regular update text for 30days
Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 290819 - 3rd to 27th September - For the UK an unsettled period with rain or showers altjough parts of the south may see some drier spells and later in September a drier period may develop. Windy at times, mainly in the north. Near normal or rather cool temperatures but trending normal to above normal later.
UKMO 220819 - 27th August to 20th September - Unsettled at times across the N and NW with rain or showers and some drier spells with near normal temperatures. The S and SE dry periods with above average temepratures perhaps hot for a time before easing back toweards normal into September when some rain or showers may spread from the NW.
UKMO 150819 - 19th August to 12th September - Unsettled weather with rain or showers and near or cooler than average temperatures, in many areas at first, and continuing for a time in the north. Otherwise trend to more settled weather, initially in the South and SW but becoming more widespread with warmer temeratures developing, though some chilly nights at first.
UKMO 080819 - 13th August to 6th September - Unsettled with rain or showers and windy at times but becoming drier in the south later in the period. Temperatures near normal perhaps a little below at times.
UKMO 010819 - 6 to 27th August - Unsettled weather with rain or showers (some heavy). SW becoming mainly dry later in August. Temperatures near normal perhaps warm or hot intervals in the East but as winds turn NW tending back to normal.
UKMO 290719 - 3rd to 27th August - Trending to unsettled weather with rain or showers (some heavy) after a drier start in the SE. Southerly winds changing later to NW types with temperatures above normal trending nearer normal. Perhaps becoming mainly dry in SW parts later in the period.
CFS2 Data 280819
29-4S TEMP: normal but above in SW England PPN: above normal but in S normal
5S-11 TEMP: mostly below normal perhaps normal in N PPN: below normal perhaos normal in far N
12-18 TEMP: normal PPN: normal
19-25 TEMP: normal PPN: normal but risk of above in England and Wales
CFS2 Data 210819
22-28 TEMP: above normal PPN: far N above normal, elsewhere in Scotland normal otherwise below normal
29-4S TEMP: above normal perhaps normal in N half of UK also Eire PPN: normal or above.
5S-10 TEMP: Far S above normal elsewhere mixed indication above or below normal PPN: normal
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal chance of below in S.
CFS2 Data 110819
12-18 TEMP: below normal PPN: normal but S and SW UK and Eire above
19-25 TEMP: below normal but N normal PPN: normal or above (especially N)
26-1S TEMP: normal PPN: normal
2S-8S TEMP: normal perhaps above in N PPN: normal
CFS2 Data 070819
8A-14 TEMP: N above elsewhere below PPN: above normal
15-21 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal
22-28 TEMP: below normal but far N normal PPN: normal or above
29-4S TEMP: below normal but N normal PPN: normal
CFS2 Data 310719
1A-7A TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or above normal in S
7A-14 TEMP: normal or above normal PPN: normal or above normal
15-21 TEMP: uncertain probably above normal PPN: normal but above in N and W
22-28 TEMP: uncertain probably above normal PPN: normal
JMA - issued - 280819
28day mean - Temp NW UK below elsewhere above normal PPN NW UK above normal elsewhere below PMSL above (WSW).
31-6S TEMP: below normal PPN: Eire and SW UK below elsewhere above normal PMSL: above normal (WNW).
7S-13 TEMP: W Eire below normal elsewhere above PPN: below normal PMSL: above (Slack, ridge).
14-27 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: NW beow SE above (WSW).
JMA - issued - 210819
28day mean - Temp above normal chance of below in far S/SW PPN below normal but far N above PMSL above normal (W).
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H over the S)
31-6S TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).
7S-20 TEMP: above normal chance of below in far S/SW PPN: above normal but S of England below PMSL above normal (W but H in S): .
JMA - issued - 150819
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal but far SE and far NW above normal PMSL above normal (W).
17-23 TEMP: S below N above PPN: below normal but above Scotlan, N Ireland and far S of England PMSL: below normal (WNW).
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H over S of UK).
31-13 TEMP: above normal PPN: Eire and W Scotland above elsewhere below PMSL: below normal (WSW) .
JMA - issued - 060819
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WNW) .
10-16 TEMP: below normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (NW cyclonic).
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W).
24-6S TEMP: above normal PPN: N above normal S below normal PMSL: above normal (W).
JMA - issued - 310819
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (WNW).
3A-9A TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but Scotland normal PMSL: below normal (Cyclonic SW) .
10-16 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WNW).
17-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W).
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260818
26-4S TEMP: above normal
PPN : S and E mainly above normal elsewhere mixed signal above/below normal
5S-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
25-4oct TEMP: above normal
PPN : 60% prob above normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210819
21-30 TEMP: above normal but only slightly in S
PPN : N 60% prob above average elsewhere below
31-9S TEMP: above normal
PPN : N below S 80% above normal
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : Scotland and N England 60% below elsewhere above normal
20-29 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160819
16-25 TEMP: above normal but England below
PPN : above normal
26-4S TEMP: above normal
PPN : 80% prob below normal
5S-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : 80% prob below normal
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but 60% prob Ebgland below normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110819
11-20 TEMP: 80% prob below normal but 60% for Eire
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9S TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below normal 60%, N above normal 80%
10-19 TEMP: above normal
PPN : near normal locally below
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060819
6A-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: England 60% prob below elsewhere above normal
PPN : above normal
26-4S TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly above normal
5S-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010819
1A-10 TEMP: 60% prob above normal
PPN : above normal
11-20 TEMP: England 60% prob below elsewhere above
PPN : above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
31-9S TEMP: above normal
PPN : S and E 60% prob below elsewhere above more likely
August single issue forecasts issued late July/early August.
CanSIPS 010819
TEMP:
AUG normal or below normal
PPN :
AUG above normal
UKMO contingency - 290719
TEMP:
August: Chance of below normal only around 5%. Main theme above normal. Some clustering around normal but most solutions above average with a much higher than average number of solutions well over a degree above average.
PPN:
August: Marginally favouring wetter than average. Five clusters one near average, two above and two below average. A signle figure for the UK does not give a clue to regional variations but the clystering might imply sig variations north to south across the UK.
Next full month September 2019 (number of runs) [running total]
UKMO contingency - 290819
TEMP:
Sep: Above normal possibly more than 1 degree above normal (less than 20% chance of below normal)
PPN:
Sep: Main grouping is near average +/-20mm but similar probs for above or below normal
Summary mostly above normal temperatures and near normal rain but hint of above in both far N and far S
NOAA - CFS2 - 280819 - valid for September 2019
TEMP: North above 3/7 normal 4/7 South above 3/7 normal 3/7 below 1/7
PPN : North above 1/7 normal 6/7 South normal 7/7
NOAA - CFS2 - 220819 - valid for September 2019
TEMP: above normal but for England 4/10 near normal.
PPN : mostly near normal but 6/10 for above normal in N and 2/10 for above normal in S
NOAA - CFS2 - 120819 - valid for September 2019
TEMP: above normal 3/4 normal 1/4
PPN : mostly normal but above in N 2/4 and below in S 2/4
NOAA - CFS2 - 080819 - valid for September 2019
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : normal 7/7 except SW UK above normal 4/7
NOAA - CFS2 - 010819 - valid for September 2019 - limited data
TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal
CanSIPS 010819
TEMP:
SEP above normal
PPN :
SEP below normal
Graphcs will appear below as available.
EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
ECMWF monthly EFIS
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
WMO monthly to date 280819 - some missing data
NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration
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