SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


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Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue JULY 2018 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire
Updated 310818. (Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike








Met Office regular update text for 30days


Interpreted from UKMO.
UKMO 310818 - 4th to 28th September 2018 Although the NW may have some rain or showers with near normal temperatures other areas are more likely to see a good deal of dry weather with above average temperatures and at times warm weather. There is a risk howver that some thundery showers may occur in some SE parts of UK and night time temps may be on the cool side with an increased risk of mist or fog in the mornings. UKMO 230818 - 28th August to 21st September 2018 - A good deal of fine and dry weather is likely to develop. Despite this some rain or showers are likely to affect NW parts of UK and these may spread across the UK at times as weakening bands. Temperatures warmer than normal by day (nearer norma, in NW and locally very warm in SE) but some cooler nights are likely.
UKMO 190818 - 24th August to 17th September 2018 - Cooler at times with rain or showers and windy weather in the N/NW but trending near normal temepratures and less changeable later. Elsewhere some rain or showers at times but trending less changeable with longer drier periods, temnperatures mainly warmber than average especially in SE UK.
UKMO 090818 - 14th August to 7th September 2018 - Starting with a slightly unsettled spell, with rain or showers and some drier spells, spreading from the west or nothwest associated with near normal temperatures. Trending later in August to drier and warmer weather though with risk of thundertorms in the SE and perhaps some showers elsewhere though more dry than not.
UKMO 030818 - 7th August to 31st August 2018 - The cooler weather with rain or showers at times but also drier spells, in the NW of UK, tending to spread to more areas by the middle of the month edging out the hot and mainly dry (though with risk of thundertorms) from the SE of UK. Chance of very warm or hot weather returning to S/SE later in month otherwise nearer normal temperature are more likely.
UKMO 260718 - 31th July to 24th August 2018 - Above normal temperature (near normal at times in NW/W and some very warm or hot spells furthereast). Although a good deal of dry weather is likely the NW and W may some some rain or showers at times whereas further S and E the risk comes from thundertorms following very warm or hot spells.


CFS2 Anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

CFS2 Data 300818
31-6S TEMP:N normal or below S above PPN: below normal
7S-13 TEMP: far N may be near normal elsewhere above normal PPN: below normal
14-20 TEMP: above normal perhaps normal in N PPN: near normal
21-27 TEMP: mostly above normal but NW and Eire may be neaer normal PPN: near normal

CFS2 Data 220818
23-29 TEMP: below normal PPN: S below N Scotland above elsewhere normal
30-5S TEMP: Eire and N Ireland below normal elsewhere near normal PPN: below normal
6S-12 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
13-19 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 180818
19-25 TEMP: N normal or below S above normal PPN: N above S below
26-1S TEMP: SW above normal, otherwise S normal or above N normal or below PPN: N normal elsewhere mainly below normal
2S-8S TEMP: S/SW above elsewhere normal PPN: below normal perhaps normal in N
9S-15 TEMP: far N normal elsewhere above normal PPN: below normal

CFS2 Data 080818
9A-15 TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal but above normal in N
16-22 TEMP: N normal elsewhere above PPN: normal
23-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
30-5S TEMP: above normal PPN: normal but above in N

CFS2 Data 020818
3A-9A TEMP: N normal or below S above PPN: below normal
10-16 TEMP: N normal or below S above PPN: normal
17-23 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal locally below
24-30 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 250718
26-1A TEMP: above or well above normal PPN: below normal but locally above in far NW
2A-8A TEMP: above or well above normal PPN: below normal but locally above in far NW
9A-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal locally below in N
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal


JMA - issued - 290818
28day mean - Temp above normal but cooler in NW PPN below normal PMSL above normal (W but slack in S).
1S-7S TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H but SW in far N).
8S-14 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (H) .
15-28 TEMP: above normal but NW below PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (SW).

JMA - issued - 220818
28day mean - Temp Above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (Weak).
25-31 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal but far N Scotland above PMSL: above normal but far N Scotland above (W).
1S-7S TEMP: Above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above normal (H).
8S-14 TEMP: Above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above normal (H over S).

JMA - issued - 150818
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (W but ridge in S).
18-24 TEMP: N below elsewhere above normal PPN:N above normal elsewhere below PMSL: above normal (NW).
25-31 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above normal (NW) .
1S-14 TEMP: Above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: Above normal. (W but high in S)

JMA - issued - 080818
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN N above S below PMSL below normal but S above (WNW) .
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (WSW).
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal in NW below in SE (WNW).
25-7S TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (WNW).

JMA - issued - 010818
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (far S below) (WNW).
4A-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (Slack).
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: beklow normal (SW) .
18-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: .above normal but far S below (WNW)

JMA - issued - 250718
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal in N far SW may be below (Weak WNW).
28-3A TEMP: above normal PPN: Above normal but SE England below PMSL: below normal (SW).
4A-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above (SLACK H) .
11-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: S and SW UK above normal elsewhere below PMSL: far S below elsewhere above (WNW) .



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260818
26-4S TEMP: near normal but above in SE
PPN : below normal but normal in far N
5S-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but normal in far N
15-24 TEMP: above normal but near normal in NW
PPN : NE UK and parts of Eire may be below elsewhere near normal
25-4oct TEMP: near normal
PPN : below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210818
21-30 TEMP: Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : below normal
31-9S TEMP: NW near normal elsewhere above especially SE
PPN : below normal
10-19 TEMP: NW near normal elsewhere above
PPN : S 60% prob above N 60% prob below normal
20-29 TEMP: near normal perhaps below normal
PPN : S Wales and England above normal elsewhere below normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160818
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
26-4S TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : below normal but chance of above in S
5S-14 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : below normal
15-24 TEMP: slightly above normal
PPN : 60% chance below 40% chance above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110818
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : S below elsewhere above normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : mostly below but parts of S chance of near or above normal
31-9S TEMP: 20% prob below normal 80% prob above
PPN : near normal chance above in N/NW
10-19 TEMP: N and W 20% prob below normal 80% prob above, otherwise above normal
PPN : N chance of below b ut elsewhere above normal most likely.

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060819
6A-15 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal except far N Scotland
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
26-4S TEMP: above normal
PPN : variable run to run but mostly 60% below normal
5S-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal except N Scotland

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 010818
1A-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : slightly below normal
31-9S TEMP: above normal
PPN : near normal chance above or below

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260718
26-4A TEMP: above normal
PPN : SW/W above normal NE/E below normal
5A-14 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N below S above
15-24 TEMP: above normal
PPN : NW/W below SE/E above
25-3S TEMP: above normal
PPN : N prob above S prob below




August single issue forecasts issued late July.


Note NCEP CFS2 010818
TEMP above normal well above in S
PPN changed to dry for August in data 1th Augusts 2018


UKMO contingency 230718
TEMP:
AUG: Above normal strong signal. Less than 10% below normal the distribtion shifted strongly above normal
PPN:
AUG: Below normal. One cluster above normal and two below normal. 60/40% split below/above normal


CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
AUG well above normal, but slightly above in W
PPN :
AUG normal but below normal in SW Scotland and above normal in SE England



Next full month September 2018 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 280818
TEMP:
SEP: Above average. About 15% solutions below average and 75% above. Whole distribution shifted to warmer than average.
PPN: SEP: Below/well below averge more likely. Main cluster is below or well below normal but next cluster is +/- 25mm from average. with about 20% in the well above average range.




NOAA - CFS2 - 300818 - valid for September 2018
TEMP: Eire and NW/N UK near normal perhaps above at times. Elsewhere above normal.
PPN : Below normal but the N may be normal with a small risk of above in far N.

NOAA - CFS2 - 230818 - valid for September 2018
TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normnal but N normal perhaps above

NOAA - CFS2 - 190818 - valid for September 2018
TEMP: above normal but 30% chance N being normal 20% for Eire
PPN : South 60% prob below normal 20% prob normal 20% prob above. North 40% prob above normal but 60% prob normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 090818 - valid for September 2018
TEMP: above normal
PPN : normal hints at locally below normal but little agreement between runs about which area.

NOAA - CFS2 - 030818 - valid for September 2018
TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal



CanSIPS 310718
TEMP:
SEP normal in far W elsewhere above normal
PPN :
SEP normalin N elsewhere above normal




ECMWF seasonal for September
TN1

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN4


Graphics ex NOAA CPC 080818
NMME T2M and PPN anomaly UK ZOOMED area plotted from 1 DEG GRIB NMME data (070718)

NMME NMME

CFS2 MAX and MIN

CFS CFS

CFS2 PPN rate and 2M temp anomaly
CFS CFS

NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME T2M and PPN anomaly

NMME NMME


Temp and PPN rate probability NMME

NMME NMME


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

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