SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE


Follow @T2mike
Experimental summary of Climate Forecasts for the UK for this and next month - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous issue March 2020 data
Seasonal - latest issue


Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for current month and next month for the UK and Eire




Updated -300420- Typically updated during Thursday/Friday). Major updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike




Met Office regular update text for 30days




Interpreted from UKMO for UK area only.
UKMO 300420 - 5th to 29th May 2020 - AFter an unsettled start with rain/showers/brighter spells, a more settled period seems likely around the second wseek in May. From about mid month again turning more changeable but overall probably below average rainfall. Temperature most likely above average and locally warm at times in parts of the SE.
UKMO 230420 - 28th April to 22nd May 2020 - More unsettled than of late with rain or showers in places and rather cloudy periods. Becoming more settled again towards the middle of May. Temperatures above average but trending near average for a time with risk of frosts in the north. Trending above average again later.
UKMO 160420 - 21th April to 15th May 2020 - In the south showers or thundery rain at times but elsewhere Higher pressure and easterlies bringing a good deal of dry weather to many areas. Temperature cool near North Sea coasts and warmest in the west. Perhaps becomong more widely unsettled towards mid May with temperatures near normal but above inland and in the east.
UKMO 090420 - 14th April to 7th May 2020 - Although temperatures are likely to be above average some nights will be chilly with frost possible. A good deal of dry weather, a few showery outbreaks may occur and later the south might become unsettled with rain or showers.
UKMO 020420 - 7th April to 1st May 2020 - Unsettled and at times windy weather weather with spells of rain or showers and near normal temperatures may give way later in the period to drier and more settled weather in or from the south with posible warmer temperature too.


CFS2 Data 290420
29-6M TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal or above
7M-13 TEMP: normal perhaps below in S PPN: normal or below
14-20 TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal perhaps above in N
21-27 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 220420
23-29 TEMP: above normal but N and E England near or below average PPN: below normal
30-6M TEMP: above normal but England near or below average PPN: normal chance of above in Eire and N ireland
7M-13 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal perhaps below in S half of area
14-20 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal perhaps below in South of England

CFS2 Data 150420
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: S/SW normal or above elsewhere below
23-29 TEMP: N an W above S and E normal or below PPN: below normal
30-6M TEMP: NW above elsewhere normal perhaps below in SE PPN: normal
7M-13 TEMP: normal or above PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 080420
9A-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
16-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: normal or below
23-29 TEMP: normal or below PPN: normal
30-6M TEMP: normal perhaps below in S PPN: normal

CFS2 Data 010420
2A-8A TEMP: NW below SE above PPN: N above S below
9A-15 TEMP: N normal S above PPN: Normal perhaps above in S
16-22 TEMP: normal but S may be below PPN: normal perhaps below in S and above in far N
23-29 TEMP: normal perhaps above in the S PPN: normal


CFS2 Data 250320
26-1A TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal
2A-8A TEMP: below normal PPN: normal
9A-15 TEMP: normal or below PPN: mostly normal
16-22 TEMP: normal perhaps above in S and below in far N PPN: mostly normal



ECMWF 270420th
27-3M TEMP: N Ireland and Scotland below, SW of England above elsewhere normal PPN: W Scotland below, S Eire, Wales and Midlands southwards above normal elsewhere normal
4M-10 TEMP: N Scotland abd W Eire normal elsewhere above normal PPN: above normal
11-17 TEMP: below normal PPN: NE Scotland, Wales and SW England above elsewhere normal
18-24 TEMP: normal but England and Wales above PPN: above normal but E Scotland and E England below
25-31 TEMP: NW normal elsewhere above PPN: far N Scotland above elsewhere below
1J-7J TEMP: N Scotland below, SE England above elsewhere normal PPN: S Eire below elsewhere mostly above normal

ECMWF 200420
20-26 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
27-3M TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly below normal locally normal in Eire
4M-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal
11-17 TEMP: N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal PPN: below normal
18-24 TEMP: S Wales, S and E England above normal PPN: N Scotland above elsewhere below
25-31 TEMP: above normal PPN: mostly below normal locally above in SW and W of Scotland and Cumbria

ECMWF 130402 Earlier weeks were not available
13-19 TEMP: SW Eire and SW UK above, NE UK below, elsewhere n ear normal PPN: Below normal but S England normal
20-26 TEMP: S and W normal N and E below PPN: below normal
27-3M TEMP: SW normal elsewhere below PPN: N below. S Wales, SW England perhaps far S Eire above elsewhere normal
4M-10 TEMP: S Wales, S and E England above, elsewhere normal PPN: mostly above normal
11-17 TEMP: normal but below in N Eire, N Ireland and NW half of Scotland PPN: above in SW England, N and E England and NE Scotland elsewhere mostly below normal
18-24 TEMP: S and SE England normal elsewhere below PPN: mostly above normal



JMA - issued - 290420
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN above normal PMSL below normal (slack).
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: N Scotland below elsewhere above PMSL: below (cyclonic slack).
9M-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: England and Wales above elsewhere below PMSL: below normal (slack).
16-29 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: N Scotland below elsewhere above normal (Slack W).

JMA - issued - 220420
28day mean - Temp above PPN below locally above in far SW England PMSL below (Slack).
25-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: below (Slack).
2M-8M TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (Slack).
9M-22 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal but Midlands below PMSL: below normal (Slack).

JMA - issued - 150420
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal but far S/SW above PMSL N above S below (SLACK).
18-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (SE).
25-1M TEMP: below normal PPN: N below elsewhere above PMSL: below normal (slack cyclonic).
2M-15 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal PMSL: below normal (W slack).

JMA - issued - 090420
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (slack).
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (slack).
18-24 TEMP: mostly above normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (slack).
25-8M TEMP: above normal but NW below PPN: below normal but risk above in far S or SW PMSL: above normal (slack).

JMA - issued - 020420
28day mean - Temp above normal PPN Ireland Scotland above elsewhere below normal PMSL above normal (SW) .
4A-10 TEMP: above normal PPN: above normal locally below in the E of England PMSL: N below S above (strong SW).
11-17 TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: well above normal (H).
18-1M TEMP: above normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal (Slack).

JMA - issued - 250320
28day mean - Temp below normal PPN below normal PMSL above normal (Slack) .
28-3A TEMP: below normal PPN: well below normal PMSL: well above normal (slack but E in south).
4A-10 TEMP: below normal PPN: below normal PMSL: above normal but normal in S (slack) .
11-24 TEMP: above normal PPN: Ireland below normal elsewhere above PMSL: N below elsewhere above (NW).



CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 260420
26-5M TEMP: above normal (20% prob below)
PPN : below normal
6M-15 TEMP: Eire below elsewhere above
PPN : above normal but Scotland 40% prob below
16-25 TEMP: Eire and W Scotland below elsewhere above
PPN : mostly below normal
26-4J TEMP: N and W below S and E above
PPN : N Ireland and Eire below elsewher 60% prob above normal

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 210420
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal
1M-10 TEMP: below normal but S and E England could be above
PPN : above normal 60%
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : above normal but SW UK may be below
21-30 TEMP: NW below SE above
PPN : N 60% below S 60% above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 160420 due 18th
16-25 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below noprmal but 20% risk above normal in S
26-5M TEMP: below normal
PPN : mixed signal but 60% prob below in many areas, highest risk above in S
6M-15 TEMP: NW below SE above
PPN : N 60% prob below S 60% prob above
16-25 TEMP: NW below SE above
PPN : Eire and S England 60% below elsewhere 60% above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 110420
11-20 TEMP: above normal
PPN : N below S above
21-30 TEMP: above normal but 20% prob below normal
PPN : 60% below 40% above
1M-10 TEMP: near normal
PPN : S Scotland N England and Midlands 60% prob below elsewhere 60% prob above
11-20 TEMP: near perhaps below normal
PPN : S of England below elsewhere above

CMA 100 member Ensemble issued date 060420
06-15 TEMP: above normal but 4% chance below in NW Scotland
PPN : above normal
16-25 TEMP: above normal (low probs)
PPN : below normal but chance above normal in W and N
26-5M TEMP: above normal (low probs) but Eire and NW Scotland normal or below
PPN : below normal but 40% chance above in places mainly England and Wales
6M-15 TEMP: above normal (low probs) but Eire and N Scotland normal or below
PPN : N 60% prob above S 40% prob above (60% below)

CMA 120 member Ensemble issued date 010420
1A-10 TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal but chance of above in S
11-20 TEMP: S below normal elsewhere slightly favouring above normal
PPN : below normal
21-30 TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal but chance of above in N Scotland
1M-10 TEMP: above normal
PPN : NW above SE below

CMA 80 member Ensemble issued date 260320 (data to 25th)
26-4A TEMP: N above elsewhere below
PPN : below normal
5A-14 TEMP: below normal
PPN : below normal
15-24 TEMP: mostly below normal
PPN : below normal but the N may be above
25-4M TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Eire and N Ireland below normal elsewhere above normal



April 2020single issue forecasts issued late December/Early Jan.



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
APR normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
APR normal




UKMO contingency - 310320
TEMP:
April: Roughly a 60/40% split in favour of above average temperatures - but sea temps to west of UK are below average which may hold temperatures back a little.
Season: 80/20% split in favour of above or well above average temperature.
PPN:
April: Roughtly 50/50 split in solutions for above/below average but there is a slight stronger cluster at slightly above average than the one slgihtly below
Season: 70/30% split in favour of below average rainfall.




Next full month May 2020 (number of runs) [running total]




UKMO contingency - 270420
TEMP:
May: Above average. Main cluster between 1 and 2 deg C anomaly. Chance of below average about 15%.
PPN:
May: Below average most likely - about 30% of solutions are above average. Note range of solutions extend drier and wetter than the climatology (1981-2010).



NOAA - CFS2 - 300420 - valid for May 2020
TEMP: normal or slightly above - normal more likely in S
PPN : below normal 1/7 normal 1/7 above normal 5/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 230420 - valid for May 2020
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : near normal but 3/7 above average in NW of UK and 3/7 below average in England

NOAA - CFS2 - 160420 - valid for May 2020
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : N above normal 7/7. S above normal 3/7 and normal 4/7

NOAA - CFS2 - 090420 - valid for May 2020
TEMP: above normal 7/7
PPN : below normal NW 4/7 3/7 normal. SE 7/7 below normal

NOAA - CFS2 - 020420 - valid for May 2020
TEMP: above normal
PPN : below normal locally normal in far NW



CanSIPS 010420
TEMP:
MAY above normal
PPN :
MAY normal locally below in N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland.




Graphcs will appear below as available.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs. Updated - see date on graphic.
TN1 TN2

NASA 050320
NASA


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T P

ECMWF monthly EFFIS
EC

WMO monthly
WMO




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 seasonal anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
3. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
4. CFS2 Weekly forecast anomalies are with respect to 1999-2010 hindcast climatology which was a warm period (SST 1982-2010) also mostly a wet period for Uk compared to longer period stats.
CFS2 Monthly and seasonal hind cast period 1982-2010
5. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY:
UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre. Other N America data also used via NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration

Comments or questions please E mail


Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data