SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - October 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 181117(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME comparison UKMO Tropical N Atlantic

ENSO CFS latest


Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC.
Not available: India Met Office IMO. South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF may be added after end of month.


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (311017, 061117, 131117), Russia 011117, CanSips 311017, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071117, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 071117, UKMO seasonal 111117, BCC China 121117, Japan JMA 121117, JAMSEC 141117, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 141117, International IMME 151117, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 151117, USA - IRI 171117, KMA 171117.
Data received after summary written.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th



Winter 2017 DEC 2018 JAN FEB
Summary - 181117 -
Temperature: Strong indication for above normal temperatures or at worst normal, (does not rule out some colder snaps see temperature graphs above for examples). Perhaps slightly less indiaction for above normal in the N than in the S where well above normal is possible. Only BCC China suggests below normal temepratures, CMC2 has near normal as does MeteoFr and in places EC. Hints that January could see the highest positive anomalies. (Some climate indications for a colder winter eg: QBO Easterly and La Nina but not reflected in seasonal model output despite some models being coupled and stratospheric.)
Precipitation: Main indications is for above normal precipitation especially in the N and W and possible near or beklow normal in some eastern and possible southern areas. Impact from La Nina event (see ENSO tracking above) suggests that the N of UK may be above normal, elsewhere normal or below. Note for some western exposures the probs are similar for above/normal/below.
Pressure most likely below normal in the N, typical of more frequent W or SW types.



Statistical relationship (IRI) for precipuitation during La Nina.
IRIIRI climate impacts.


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131117
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal but N Scotland normal
PPN: Season: above normnal locally normal in E Scotland and NE England
DEC E Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal but E of UK normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051117
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal, well above in S JAN above normal, well above in S FEB above normal, well above in S
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC E normal elsewhere above JAN above normal FEB above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311117
TEMP: Season: Above normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal
DEC Normal in NE Scotland NE and E England elsewhere above JAN Above normal FEB NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 171117 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : N Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normal elsewhere no signal



KMA - 171117- .
TEMP :Season above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season above normal
DEC normal locally above in NW Scotland JAN above normal FEB above normal
PMSL: Season below normal especially in N
DEC above normal in SW below in NE JAN below normal especially in N FEB below normal especially in N



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 151117
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal most likely with S Eire, Wales, SW England, S England and E coasts possibly in UQ
PPN: Eire , N Ireland and Scotland no signal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: below normal most likely
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Scotland, E England and S/SW England most likely above normal elsewhre no signal
PPN: No Signal but above normal in S and E Eire N Wales N England and S/SE Scotland
PMSL: Below normal most likely especially in S where low probs LQ
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal. Enhanced probs for UQ.
PPN: No Signal but N and E Midlands and N England above normal
PMSL: Normal but below normal in N.
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Coastal areas also Wales and S/SW England above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN: Coastal areas and SE England above normal, N England and S Scotland near normal, elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Below normal most likely.



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 141117
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
PPN : normal



jamstec.go.jp
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 141117
Temp: Season: Above normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal
PPN : Season: above normal
DEC normal locally above in NW Scotland JAN Above normal FEB Above normal locally normal in E



Japan JMA - 121117 - (23 March 2017 - 50 member ensemble accumulated 50 members will be composed of the set of 24 members (Tuesday) and the set of 26 members (Wednesday) at 55km resolution 100 levels 0.01hPa top). Hindcast 1981-2010
Temp: Season above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN : Season above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB S below normal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (SW)
DEC above normal (SW) JAN well below normal (Strong SW) FEB below normal (SW)


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland above elsewhere slightly below or near normal
DEC Eire below normal elsewhere above JAN below normal FEB Eire below normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above normal
DEC N Scotland and Eire normal elsewhere above JAN England and Wales normal elsewhere below FEB N Ireland, central and S Scotland and N England normal elsewhere above




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members. (UQ upper quintile LQ Lower Quintile)
UKMO - 111117
TEMP: Above 60% prob for above normal, chance of below normal below 20%. Prob of UQ 40 to 55% prob LQ 5 to 25%.
PPN : Prob above median over 60% Eire, N Ireland, most of central and W Scotland and NW England. Prob for UQ 25 to 40% LQ 5 to 25% range. Elsewhere normal.
PSML: Probs favour near normal but below in N and above in S, hence possibly windier than average.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071117
TEMP: Season Above normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal.
PPN : Season S or SW UK and SW Eire below elsewhere normal
DEC NW UK and Eire above JAN S below far N above elsewhere normal FEB S below elsewhere normal


Russia 011117
Temp: England above normal elsewhere near normal or no signal
PPN : N half Scotland no signal elsewhere above normal


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP: SW Eire normal elsewhere above normal
DEC Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above JAN Eire normal elsewhere above FEB SW Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN : S of England below normal, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal
DEC N above normal elsewhere normal JAN N and SW England above normal elsewhere normal FEB below normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 071117
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal. Only CMC2 has near normal none below normal.

PPN: season - Some indication for normal or below in S, but main signal is above normal especially in N.



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151117
TEMP: season - Above normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal
PPN rate: season - Above normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal but E normal



Graphics 081117
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


2018 JAN FEB MAR


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131117
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal but N Scotland normal MAR above normal but W Eire normal
PPN: Season: Above normal but locally normal in E England
JAN above normal FEB above normal but E of UK normal MAR SW England above NW Scotland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051117
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal, well above in S FEB above normal, well above in S MAR above normal, well above in SE
PPN: Season: Above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR N half Scotland normal elsewehere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311117
TEMP: Season: Above normal
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal MAR Above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal
JAN Above normal FEB NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR Above normal




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP:
JAN below normal FEB Eire below normal elsewhere above MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN England and Wales normal elsewhere below FEB N Ireland, central and S Scotland and N England normal elsewhere above MAR below normal



UKMO - 111117
TEMP: Above 60% prob for above normal, chance of below normal below 20%. Prob of UQ 40 to 55% but England mostly 25 to 40% prob LQ 5 to 25%.
PPN : Prob above median over 60% in many places. Prob for UQ 25 to 40% in N, W and S. LQ 5 to 25% range.
PSML: Probs favour below normal except in S, hence possibly windier than average.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071117
TEMP: Season Above normal
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal MAR Above normal
JAN S below far N above elsewhere normal FEB S below elsewhere normal MAR normal but NE Scotland below


CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
JAN Eire normal elsewhere above FEB SW Eire normal elsewhere above MAR SW England and SW Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JAN N and SW England above normal elsewhere normal FEB below normal MAR below normal





2018 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131117
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal but N Scotland normal MAR above normal but W Eire normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Eire
FEB above normal but E of UK normal MAR SW England above NW Scotland below elsewhere normal APR notmal locally below in E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051117
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal, well above in S MAR above normal, well above in SE APR above normal
PPN: Season: SE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
FEB above normal MAR N half Scotland normal elsewehere above normal APR mostly below normal but E Scotland, NE England, N Ireland and Eire normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311117
TEMP: Season: Above normal
FEB Above normal MAR Above normal APR Above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal
FEB NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR Above normal APR normal but above in SW England




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP:
FEB Eire below normal elsewhere above MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB N Ireland, central and S Scotland and N England normal elsewhere above MAR below normal APR below normal



UKMO - 111117
TEMP: Above 60% prob for above normal, over 80% across Eire and SW England. Chance of below normal below 20%. Prob of UQ 40 to 55% prob LQ 5 to 25%.
PPN : Prob above median over 60% inW Scotland elsewhere 40 to 60%. Prob for UQ 25 to 40% in S Eire and SW England elsewhere similar probs for UQ and LQ 5 to 25% range.
PSML: Probs favour below normal or below in N no signal in S.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071117
TEMP: Season Above normal
FEB Above normal MAR Above normal APR Above normal
PPN : Season S or SW UK and SW Eire below elsewhere normal
FEB S below elsewhere normal MAR normal but NE Scotland below APR SW Ebngland and SW Eire below elsewhere normal


CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
FEB SW Eire normal elsewhere above MAR SW England and SW Eire normal elsewhere above APR S of England and SW Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR below normal APR W Eire and Nhalf Scotland normal elsewhere below





2018 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 181117 - Above normal temeprature indications continue. Mixed rainfall pattern possibly near normal overall but hints at some western areas wette and eastern areas drier but not strong anomalies.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131117
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal but W Eire normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire
MAR SW England above NW Scotland below elsewhere normal APR normal locally below in E Scotland MAY normal but above in SW Eire and central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051117
TEMP: Season: Above normal but W Eire normal
PPN: Season: Normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311117
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal


USA - IRI - 171117 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : NW Scotland below S Wales, central S and E England above elsewhere no signal




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal APR below normal MAY Scotland and N Ireland below. S coasts England above, elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071117
TEMP: Season Above normal
MAR Above normal APR Above normal MAY Above normal
PPN : Season normal
MAR normal but NE Scotland below APR SW England and SW Eire below elsewhere normal MAY normal


CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP: above normal
MAR SW England and SW Eire normal elsewhere above APR S of England and SW Eire normal elsewhere above MAY above normal
PPN : below normal
MAR below normal APR W Eire and N half Scotland normal elsewhere below MAY E Uk normal elsewhere below



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updateed 13th November 2017.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8






Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 071117
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal

PPN: season - Risk of above normal in far N and chance of below normal in S elsewhere normal. CMC and GFDL models have below normal in S



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151117
TEMP: season - above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY N Scotlabnd normal elsewhere above normal
PPN rate: season - normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal



Graphics 071117
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


2018 APR MAY JUN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131117
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in central Scotland/lowlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 051117
TEMP: Season: N Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: Normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311117
TEMP: Season: Normal in NE England, Eire and N Ireland elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: Normal but N England and most of Scotland above normal




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN below normal
PPN:
APR below normal MAY Scotland and N Ireland below. S coasts England above, elsewhere normal JUN mostly above but N Ireland and N Midlands below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071117
TEMP:
APR Above normal MAY Above normal JUN Above normal
PPN :
APR SW England and SW Eire below elsewhere normal MAY normal JUN England Wales and SW Eire below elsewhere normal


CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
APR S of England and SW Eire normal elsewhere above MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR W Eire and Nhalf Scotland normal elsewhere below MAY E Uk normal elsewhere below JUN S below normal, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal





2018 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 131117
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Eire




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN below normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY Scotland and N Ireland below. S coasts England above, elsewhere normal JUN mostly above but N Ireland and N Midlands below JUL N Ireland, N Eire, Wales and NW England normal elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071117
TEMP:
MAY Above normal JUN Above normal JUL Above normal
PPN :
MAY normal JUN England Wales and SW Eire below elsewhere normal JUL normal


CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY E Uk normal elsewhere below JUN S below normal, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal JUL normal.





2018 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 181117 - Temperatures near normal or slightly above. Rainfall near normal but perhaos drier in S early and late summer.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland above elsewhere slightly below (tends to be a little cool?)
JUN below normal JUL above normal AUG Scotland above elsewhere below
PPN: Season: Scotland and N ireland below elsewhere above
JUN mostly above but N Ireland and N Midlands below JUL N Ireland, N Eire, Wales and NW England normal elsewhere below AUG S above N below middle normal



CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP: Above normal especially in the S
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Eire, N Ireland, Wales, W and SW England below elsewhere normal
JUN S below normal, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal JUL normal. AUG SE UK normal elsewhere below




2018 JUL AUG SEP



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG Scotland above elsewhere below SEP England and Wales below elsewhere above
PPN:
JUL N Ireland, N Eire, Wales and NW England normal elsewhere below AUG S above N below middle normal SEP S Wales and S England below N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere normal



CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal. AUG SE UK normal elsewhere below SEP normal locally above far W Cornwall





2018 AUG SEP OCT



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP: Season:
AUG Scotland above elsewhere below SEP England and Wales below elsewhere above OCT above normal
PPN: Season:
AUG S above N below middle normal SEP S Wales and S England below N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT above normal but far N and far S normal



CanSIPS - 311017
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG SE UK normal elsewhere below SEP normal locally above far W Cornwall OCT normal but above in NE England





2018 SEP OCT NOV



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 121117 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP England and Wales below elsewhere above OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: Scotland above elsewhere below
SEP S Wales and S England below N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT above normal but far N and far S normal NOV below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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