SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - February 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 260320 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency.
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: Pretoria, Beijing Not available .


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (missing - backup used 020320, 020320, 100320, 160320240320) Temperature graphics (080320) E3 graphics (100320), Russia 010320, CanSips 290220, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050320, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080320, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080320, UKMO seasonal 110320, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110320, ECMWF monthly graphics 130320, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP) 140320, JAMSTEC 140320, Japan JMA 140320, BCC China 150320, USA - IRI 170320, Korea APCC 210320

Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, CPTEC, UKMO 120320. WMO multi ensemble, Moscow, Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington, ECMWF 230320

International IMME no longer available from NCEP - see WMO graphics and Copernicus

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



APR MAY JUN

Summary - 190320 -
Temperture: For the three months in central and eastern areas there is a consistant indication for above average temperatures. Elsewhere near normal seems more likely with some months possibly below average, most likely April and possibly early May largely due to colder than normal Atlantic sea temperatures. Models are typically poor at picking out colder months.
Rainfall: Many models indicate below average rainfall for the season, most likely in the south with the NW of UK at possible normal or aboe normal rainfall. Little agreement between models as to which month could be drier or wetter - mixed signal.



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 -240320
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal locally above in NW Scotland JUN above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire
APR normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland MAY normal JUN normal but above in W Eire and below in Midlands, E and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in E Anglia
APR normal MAY normal locally above in E Anglia JUN normal but above in E/SE England NW Midlands NW Ebngland and most of Scotland
PPN: Season: normal
APR normal but above in W Scotland MAY normal JUN normal but below in S and E Eire, Wales and SW England, S Scotland, N England and E coastal England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100320
TEMP: Season: normal in Eire and N Ireland elsewhere above normal
APR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal but above in Midlands and SE England JUN above normal
PPN: Season: N Eire, N Ireland and N half of Scotland normal elsewhere below normal
APR NW Scotland above, Eire, Wales and England below elsewhere normal MAY normal but above in N Ireland, N Eire parts of N Scotland and N England JUN below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020320
TEMP: Season: above normal locally normal in W Eire
APR above normal MAY N Ireland, Eire and Wales normal elsewhere above normal JUN above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in NE and E England and Midlands
APR Below normal but normal in Eire, N Ireland and S Scotland MAY normal but below in SW England and Midlands but above in N Scotland JUN Normal but below in S Scotland, NE and E England and N Ireland but above in S Eire and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 backup via tropicaltidbits.com - 020320
TEMP: Season: above normal
APR normal chance below in S England MAY normal JUN above normal
PPN: Season: NW above, S below elsewher normal
APR S below normal N normal or above in NW MAY N and E normal elsewhere below JUN SE below NW above




Korea APCC - 210320
Temp: Season above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal but no signal in west JUN above normal
PPN : Season no signal but perhaps below normal in NW Scotland
APR no signal but Eire and N Ireland below normal MAY no signal JUN no signal



USA - IRI - 170320 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal but SE England above normal
PPN : Below normal in most of Eire, SW Wales and SW England elsewhere no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP: Season: W normal elsewhere above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal locally normal in W Eire JUN above normal locally normal in W Eire
PPN: Season: N Scotland above elsewhere below normal
APR below normal MAY W below normal E above normal JUN N Scotland above elsewhere below normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Japan JMA 140320
Temp: Season above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN : Season far N above elsewhere below
APR below normal but above in N Scotland, SW England and parts of Eire MAY below normal JUN below normal
PMSL: Season above normal (slack WNW)
APR above normal (Slack SW) MAY above normal (slack W) JUN above normal (slack)



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 140320
Copernicus(EU)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: above normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: normal but above over central Europe
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: SW UK below and E coast above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: above normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: W normal E above
PPN: E Anglia and N Scotland above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Normal. Below to the north and above to S and SW of UK
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: N above S no signal
PMSL: Normal. Below to the north and above to S
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: W normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: N above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: above normal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: mainly below in S half elsewhere no signal
PMSL: above normal




UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 110320 -
TEMP: above normal with chance of well above normal in S and E
PPN : normal chance of above normal in NW and below in S.
PSML: Above normal especially in the south



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 100320
Temp: normal but N and E above
PPN : normal but SE England above
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but SW and E of England above
PPN : normal but SE England above
PMSL:



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050320
TEMP:
APR Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY above normal JUN normal
PPN :
APR W Scotland below elsewhere above normal MAY above normal locally below in Eire, N Ireland, E Scotland S Midlands and parts of SW England JUN E above W below



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
APR above normal but W Eire normal MAY above normal JUN normal locally above SW England and NE England
PPN :
APR below normal but NW Scotland normal MAY normal locally below in SW England Wales N England and S Scotland JUN normal



Russia
Temp: Eire, N Ireland and Western areas of Scotland/Wale/England beow normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Mostly no signal but southern areas may be above normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080320
TEMP: SEASON: above normal
APR above normal 7/7 MAY above normal 6/7 JUN above normal 6/7 (1/7 below normal)
PPN: SEASON: normal or below
APR below normal 4/7 normal 2/7 above normal 1/7 MAY below in S above in far N elsewhere normal JUN 3 above 2 below 2 normal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN7 TN2 TN3

TN8 TN5 TN6

NASA anomaly .
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa CFS2 mean height, anomaly NMME anomaly 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


WMO March 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined. 230320
200

120320
BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200

230320
Moscow monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200



2020 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 -240320
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in NW Scotland JUN above normal JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland and SE England
PPN:
MAY normal JUN normal but above in W Eire and below in Midlands, E and SE England JUL normal but above in NW Scotland and below in SE Scotland N Ireland S and E Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160320
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in E Anglia JUN normal but above in E/SE England NW Midlands NW Ebngland and most of Scotland JUL normal but above in E England and most of Scotland
PPN:
MAY normal JUN normal but below in S and E Eire, Wales and SW England, S Scotland, N England and E coastal England JUL normal but above in W EIre and W Scotland, locally below E Scotland and East coastal England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100320
TEMP:
MAY normal but above in Midlands and SE England JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY normal but above in N Ireland, N Eire parts of N Scotland and N England JUN below normal JUL NW Scotland above elsewhere normal locally below in some east coast areas

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020320
TEMP:
MAY N Ireland, Eire and Wales normal elsewhere above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY normal but below in SW England and Midlands but above in N Scotland JUN Normal but below in S Scotland, NE and E England and N Ireland but above in S Eire and SW England JUL Above normal in S Eire S Scotland N England, N Midlands, Wales and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 backup via tropicaltidbits.com - 020320
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: mostly below
MAY N and E normal elsewhere below JUN SE below NW above JUL NW and parts of Wales/Midlands above elseher normal or below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal locally normal in W Eire JUN above normal locally normal in W Eire JUL NW below SE above
PPN:
MAY W below normal E above normal JUN N Scotland above elsewhere below normal JUL below normal



UKMO - 110320 -
TEMP: above normal with chance of well above normal in SE
PPN : normal.
PSML: Above normal especially in the south



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050320
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY above normal locally below in Eire, N Ireland, E Scotland S Midlands and parts of SW England JUN E above W below JUL below normal but above in SW England, W Eire and western N Ireland, N Wales and SW Scotland

CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN normal locally above SW England and NE England JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal locally below in SW England Wales N England and S Scotland JUN normal JUL normal locally below in SE England





2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 190320 -
Temperature: most indications are for normal or above normal temperatures for the season and each month with the East of the UK most likely to see above normal values. Some hints that June could be closer to normal than other months.
Rainfall: Very mixed signal. Most likely to be below normal in many areas but the N of Scotland could well be normal or above normal. Strongest hint for a drier than average month is for July but with August wetter.




USA - NCEP CFS2 -240320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland and SE England
JUN above normal JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland and SE England AUG normal locally above in SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Eire and NW Scotland
JUN normal but above in W Eire and below in Midlands, E and SE England JUL normal but above in NW Scotland and below in SE Scotland N Ireland S and E Eire AUG normal but above in S Eire and much of Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160320
TEMP: Season: normal but locally above in E Anglia and NW Scotland
JUN normal but above in E/SE England NW Midlands NW England and most of Scotland JUL normal but above in E England and most of Scotland AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in N W Scotland
JUN normal but below in S and E Eire, Wales and SW England, S Scotland, N England and E coastal England JUL normal but above in W EIre and W Scotland, locally below E Scotland and East coastal England AUG normal but above in SW Eire W Scotland and Sw England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100320
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SE Eire, E and NE Scotland also NE of England
JUN below normal JUL NW Scotland above elsewhere normal locally below in some east coast areas AUG normal but locally above in Cornwall, far SE Eire and far NW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020320
TEMP: Season: above normal locally normal in Eire
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire and SW of UK
JUN Normal but below in S Scotland, NE and E England and N Ireland but above in S Eire and SW England JUL Above normal in S Eire S Scotland N England, N Midlands, Wales and SW England AUG normal but above in Eire, SW England and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 backup via tropicaltidbits.com - 020320
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: NW normal elsewhere below
JUN SE below NW above JUL NW and parts of Wales/Midlands above elseher normal or below AUG mostly below normal



USA - IRI - 170320 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal in Perthshire and Fife, N Wales Midlands and E/SE England elsewhere no signal
PPN : Mostly no signal but below in NE Scotland, E Anglia, Dorset/Hampshire



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP: Season: far NW below, SE above elsewhere near normal
JUN above normal locally normal in W Eire JUL NW below SE above AUG Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal elsewghere normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland above elsewhere below normal
JUN N Scotland above elsewhere below normal JUL below normal AUG England and Wales below normal elsewhere above



Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 140320
Copernicus(EU)
TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
PPN: no signal
PMSL: near normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but NE UK above
PPN: N above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: N below elsewhere near normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but NE UK above
PPN: mostly no signal
PMSL: near normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but E of England above
PPN: Eire below elsewhere mostly no signal
PMSL: near normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: near normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: mostly below but N half Scotland no signal
PMSL: W above elsewhere near normal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: far N Scotland above, S Eire below elsewhere no signal
PMSL: N below elsewhere normal




jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 140320
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



UKMO - 110320 -
TEMP: normal or above normal similar probs but also a slghtly enhanced chance of well above normal
PPN : Below normal slightly more likely.
PSML: Above normal chance of well above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050320
TEMP:
JUN normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN E above W below JUL below normal but above in SW England, W Eire and western N Ireland, N Wales and SW Scotland AUG above normal but below in S Wales and SW ENgland



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
JUN normal locally above SW England and NE England JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal JUL normal locally below in SE England AUG normal locally above in S Scotland and N England



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080320
TEMP: SEASON: above normal
JUN above normal 6/7 (1/7 below normal) JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: SEASON: normal chance of below in W and S
JUN 3 above 2 below 2 normal JUL normal but 3 locally below AUG 3/7 below but 2/7 above in north otherwise normal



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa CFS2 mean height, anomaly NMME anomaly 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly
200 NASA anomaly 050320
200

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN7 TN2 TN3

TN8 TN5 TN6



2020 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 -240320
TEMP:
JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland and SE England AUG normal locally above in SE England SEP normal
PPN:
JUL normal but above in NW Scotland and below in SE Scotland N Ireland S and E Eire AUG normal but above in S Eire and much of Scotland SEP normal locally above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160320
TEMP:
JUL normal but above in E England and most of Scotland AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUL normal but above in W EIre and W Scotland, locally below E Scotland and East coastal England AUG normal but above in SW Eire W Scotland and Sw England SEP normal but below in N half of Scotland and above in S Eire and all S of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N Scotland and E England
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above normal in N Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire, W Scotland and SW of UK

USA - NCEP CFS2 backup via tropicaltidbits.com - 020320
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL NW and parts of Wales/Midlands above elseher normal or below AUG mostly below normal SEP mostly below normal but NW may be above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP:
JUL NW below SE above AUG Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal elsewghere normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG England and Wales below normal elsewhere above SEP below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050320
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL below normal but above in SW England, W Eire and western N Ireland, N Wales and SW Scotland AUG above normal but below in S Wales and SW ENgland SEP below normal but NW Scotland above



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP normal but above in Cornwall N and E Scotland and E/NE England
PPN :
JUL normal locally below in SE England AUG normal locally above in S Scotland and N England SEP normal but above in N Ireland and most of Eire




2020 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in far SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S Eire and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SE England and NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Eire W Scotland and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in E England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S and W Scotland and much of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above normal in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 backup via tropicaltidbits.com - 020320
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG mostly below normal SEP mostly below normal but NW may be above OCT SE normal elsewhere mostly above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP:
AUG Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal elsewghere normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG England and Wales below normal elsewhere above SEP below normal OCT mostly below normal but S may be normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050320
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT mostly above normal
PPN :
AUG above normal but below in S Wales and SW ENgland SEP below normal but NW Scotland above OCT England and Wales below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP normal but above in Cornwall N and E Scotland and E/NE England OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal locally above in S Scotland and N England SEP normal but above in N Ireland and most of Eire OCT normal but below in S of UK and SE Scotland





2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - limited data - 190320 - Return to more or less blanket solutions for above normal temperature. Rainfall also above normal especially in the NW of UK, elsewhere not so clear cut (normal or above) and September could be drier - though no broad agreement on this..




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240320
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in far SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160320
TEMP: Season: normal but above in England and Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 backup via tropicaltidbits.com - 020320
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: NW above, S Eire, Wales, England and S Scotland below elsewhere normal
SEP mostly below normal but NW may be above OCT SE normal elsewhere mostly above NOV W Eire and NW Uk above elsewhere normal or below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP: Season: W normal E above
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
SEP below normal OCT mostly below normal but S may be normal NOV below normal but N Scotland normal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 140320
Temp: Season: normal locally below in W Eire
PPN : Season: below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050320
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT mostly above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP below normal but NW Scotland above OCT England and Wales below elsewhere above NOV above normal



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
SEP normal but above in Cornwall N and E Scotland and E/NE England OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal but above in N Ireland and most of Eire OCT normal but below in S of UK and SE Scotland NOV normal locally below in E Scotland and N England



NASA anomaly 050320
200


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P



2020 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT mostly below normal but S may be normal NOV below normal but N Scotland normal DEC below normal but N Scotland normal



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal but SW Eire normal
PPN :
OCT normal but below in S of UK and SE Scotland NOV normal locally below in E Scotland and N England DEC normal locally above in W Eire J





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal but normal in Eire
PPN:
NOV below normal but N Scotland normal DEC below normal but N Scotland normal JAN below normal



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal but SW Eire normal JAN above normal but normal in S hald Eire, SW and S of England
PPN :
NOV normal locally below in E Scotland and N England DEC normal locally above in W Eire JAN normal locally below in Wales, SW England Eire and N Ireland





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary - very limited data - Another milder than average winter seems possible, precipition probably above normal in the north and neaer normal in the south.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal but normal in Eire FEB above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
DEC below normal but N Scotland normal JAN below normal FEB below normal



CanSIPS 290220
TEMP:
DEC above normal but SW Eire normal JAN above normal but normal in S half of Eire, SW and S of England FEB W normal E above
PPN :
DEC normal locally above in W Eire JAN normal locally below in Wales, SW England Eire and N Ireland FEB normal but below in N Scotland and above in E England






2020 2021 JAN FEB MAR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150320 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal but normal in Eire FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN below normal FEB below normal MAR below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

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