SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - May 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 030620 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Russia, CanSips, USA NASA GMAO GSFC, Japan JMA, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), NMME and CFS2 graphics, ECMWF monthly, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), BCC China, UKMO seasonal, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble.

Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010620) Temperature graphics (010620), E3 graphics (010620), Russia 310520, CanSips 010620
Graphics via WMO:

International IMME no longer available from NCEP - see WMO graphics and Copernicus

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



JUL AUG SEP

Summary -




NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in S and W Scotland, N Ireland, SW England and E Midlands. AUG normal but above in parts of Southern England SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in W Scotland and locally below in S Scotland, N England, N Ireland and N Wales AUG normal but below in W Eire Wales N England and S Scotland SEP mostly above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: above in Eire, N Ireland W Scotland and W Wales elsewhere normal
JUL E England below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN : Season: Eire, N Ireland and NW half Scotland below elsewhere normal
JUL normal AUG normal locally below in W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire. SEP mostly below normal



Russia
Temp: Eire,, N ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal or no signal
PPN : no signal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8





2020 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP:br> AUG normal but above in parts of Southern England SEP normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above
PPN:
AUG normal but below in W Eire Wales N England and S Scotland SEP mostly above normal OCT Eire normal elsewhere below normal



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal but Wales, Midlands and N England normal
PPN :
AUG normal locally below in W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire. SEP mostly below normal OCT N Scotland and S/SE England normal elsewhere below





2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above NOV mostly above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP mostly above normal OCT Eire normal elsewhere below normal NOV W Eire, NE Scotland and SE England normal, elsewhere above normal



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal but Wales, Midlands and N England normal NOV above normal
PPN : Season: normal
SEP mostly below normal OCT N Scotland and S/SE England normal elsewhere below NOV N above elsewhere normal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN17 TN12 TN13

TN18 TN15 TN16


2020 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: normal but above in W and S Scotland Wales and most of England except SW and NE.
PPN: Season: normal



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
OCT above normal but Wales, Midlands and N England normal NOV above normal DEC normal
PPN :
OCT N Scotland and S/SE England normal elsewhere below NOV N above elsewhere normal DEC W Eire and NW Scotland above elsewhere normal





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV N above elsewhere normal DEC W Eire and NW Scotland above elsewhere normal JAN N half and SE England above elsewhere normal





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary -



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
DEC normal JAN above normal FEB normal
PPN : Season: normal but NW above
DEC W Eire and NW Scotland above elsewhere normal JAN N half and SE England above elsewhere normal FEB E England and W Eire normal elsewhere below





2021 JAN FEB MAR


CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB normal MAR normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
JAN N half and SE England above elsewhere normal FEB E England and W Eire normal elsewhere below MAR normal locally above in SW Wales and NW Eire





2021 FEB MAR APR


CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal but England and Wales above APR Scotland England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
FEB E England and W Eire normal elsewhere below MAR normal locally above in SW Wales and NW Eire APR mostly below normal





2021 MAR APR MAY


CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: S Scotland, England and Wales above elsewhere normal
MAR normal but England and Wales above APR Scotland England and Wales above elsewhere normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season: normal
MAR normal locally above in SW Wales and NW Eire APR mostly below normal MAY N Ireland above elsewhere mostly normal






2021 APR MAY JUN





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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