SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - August 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 160918(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC. Not avalialble Russia, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO 120918.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (020918 080918 130918), CANSIP 050918, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060918, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) with NMME and CFS2 graphics 090918, UKMO seasonal 110918, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110918, ECMWF monthly 120918, BCC China 120918, KMA 140918, JAMSTEC 140918, Japan JMA 140918, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 140918, International IMME 150918, USA - IRI 160918.
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 OCT NOV DEC

Summary - 160918 - Indication from nearly all models for above normal temperatures and perhaps well above (1C anomaly) for the season with chance that places could see over one deg Celsius positive anomalies later in the period. Precipitation for the three month season as a whole probably above normal but parts of the UK especially the S may start off in October with below normal rainfall and some models suggest the NW may end the period drier with the wetter weather in the S.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130918
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT normal but SW England above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal normal
PPN: Season: E normal elsewhere above normal
OCT normal but Eire, N Ireland, Wales and W Scotland above NOV normal but W and central Scotland N Ireland parts of Wales and SW England above DEC N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080918
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT normal but above in SW England NOV well above normal (0.5 to 1C anom) DEC Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal elsewhere well above normal
PPN: Season: above normal in Eire, N Ireland S and W Scotland N England Wales and SW England elsewhere normal
OCT normal but NW Scotland abover and SE England below NOV normal but Eire and W Scotland above DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhre above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020918
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT normal NOV above normal DEC above normal SE Eire, England and Wales well above
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales, W Midlands SW England and most of Eire
OCT below normal but normal in N and E Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland NOV normal but above in S Eire, Wales and S of England DEC above normal


From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 160918 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal
PPN : No signal but above normal in SW Eire, Wales and SW Scotland



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 140918
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: above normal
PPN: mostly no signal but locally below normal in N
PMSL: Higher than normal over Scandinavia UK no signal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: NE above elsewhere no signal
PPN: mostly no signal but locally below normal in NW
PMSL: Higher than normal over Scandinavia UK no signal
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: S near normal, locally below normal in N England elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Higher than normal over Scandinavia UK lower in S and W and Eire
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: S and E above elsewhere no signal
PPN: N below normal, far E England above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: above normal over UK



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Japan JMA 140918
Temp: Season above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season above normal
OCT n below elsewhere above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (SW)
OCT belopw normal (SW) NOV below normal (SW)DEC Scotland below elsewhere above (WSW)



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 140918 - .
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season E UK normal elsewhere above normal
OCT mainly normal S Eire above NOV E normal else above DEC E normal else above
PMSL: Season SE normal NW below
OCT S below elsewhere normal NOV S normal N below DEC S normal NW below




ECMWF - monthly - data from Weather US
ECMWF - monthly - 120918
TEMP:
OCT near normal locally above in NE Scotland NOV above normal but W Wales, Cornwall N Ireland and most of Eire near normal DEC near normal
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV S Wales SW England and Midlands above, below in NW Eire and NW N Ireland N Wales N England and Scotland elsewhere near normal DEC S and E of England E Scotland and SE Eire above elsewhere mostly below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP: Season: Above normal
OCT Above normal NOV Above normal DEC Above normal nearer normal in S
PPN: Season: mostly above normal
OCT above normal NOV SW Eire and SW UK below elsewhere above normal DEC S above N below




UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels) (U/LQ upper/lower quintile)
UKMO - 110918 -
TEMP: Above normal most likely but similar probs for Normal and above normal. Mod probs UQ.
PPN : Above normal most likely in N and W Uk and in Eire. East England may be below elsewhere normal. Mod prob UQ in Wales and W Scotland N Ireland and Eire
PSML: Chance of below normal NW of UK and above to NE of UK but elsewhere no signal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110918
Temp: normal but above in E of UK
PPN : SW Eire above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL: slightly below normal
Brazil PERSISTED sea temps (RAS)
Temp: Near normal
PPN : Near normal but parts of far E of UK far N Cornwall and W half of Eire above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060918
TEMP:
OCT normal locally below in E England NOV normal DEC normal but above in Eire
PPN :
OCT below normal locally above in NW Scotland NOV above normal DEC S England and far NW Scotland beow elsewhere above



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
OCT normal but England and Wales above NOV normal DEC normal
PPN :
OCT normal but N Scotland above NOV normal locally below in SE England and Eire DEC Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080918
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: above normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150918
TEMP: season - above or well above normal
OCT above normal NOV above or well above normal DEC above or well above normal
PPN rate: season - near normal
OCT near normal NOV near normal DEC near normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England



NMME Graphics 090918

CFS2 MAX and MIN
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly 120918
200


2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130918
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal but Wales and England well above
PPN:
NOV normal but W and central Scotland N Ireland parts of Wales and SW England above DEC N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080918
TEMP:
NOV well above normal (0.5 to 1C anom) DEC Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal elsewhere well above normal JAN mostly well above normal but N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal
PPN:
NOV normal but Eire and W Scotland above DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020918
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal SE Eire, England and Wales well above JAN above normal England and Wales well above
PPN:
NOV normal but above in S Eire, Wales and S of England DEC above normal JAN above normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP:
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal nearer normal in S JAN Above normal
PPN: Season:
NOV SW Eire and SW UK below elsewhere above normal DEC S above N below JAN above normal perhaos below in far S




ECMWF - monthly - 120918
TEMP:
NOV above normal but W Wales, Cornwall N Ireland and most of Eire near normal DEC near normal JAN below normal but N Scotland N Ireland Eire W Wales and SW England normal
PPN:
NOV S Wales SW England and Midlands above, below in NW Eire and NW N Ireland N Wales N England and Scotland elsewhere near normal DEC S and E of England E Scotland and SE Eire above elsewhere mostly below normal JAN S and E of England E Scotland and E Eire above elsewhere mostly below normal




UKMO - 110918 -
TEMP: Above normal most likely with mod to high probs UQ.
PPN : Above normal most likely. Mod prob UQ all areas.
PSML: N half UK and Eire below normal chance of LQ elsewhere no signal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060918
TEMP:
NOV normal DEC normal but above in Eire JAN Scotland normal elsewhere above norma
PPN :
NOV above normal DEC S England and far NW Scotland beow elsewhere above JAN above normal



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
NOV normal DEC normal JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV normal locally below in SE England and Eire DEC Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN below normal but N England, N Wales and S Scotland normal





2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - 160918 - ECMWF and JASTEC suggest near normal and hint at below normal (see ECMWF January graphic below) but these are the exceptions with other models suggesting a milder than normal winter, potentially very mild. Each month milder than average but does not rule out some short colder spells. Precipitation main signal is for above normal but several models suggest the North could be neaer normal and hints at below normal. ECMWF is again an outlier (see graphics) and hints at S and E above normal and elsewhere below an also hints at increased snow risk in January in the S of UK. The main indication however is for below normal snowfall across the UK although does not preclude some snow especially for mountains. CFS2 suggest enhanced Atlantic Jet for January suggesting stormier types for that month.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130918
TEMP: Season: above normal but Wales and S half England well above
DEC above normal JAN above normal but Wales and England well above FEB bove normal but Wales and England well above
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal but NE and S Scotland and N England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080918
TEMP: Season: above or well above normal
DEC Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal elsewhere well above normal JAN mostly well above normal but N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal FEB well above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhre above normal JAN above normal FEB N ireland E Scotland and E England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020918
TEMP: Season: above normal but well above in Wales and S half of England
DEC above normal SE Eire, England and Wales well above JAN above normal England and Wales well above FEB above normal S England and Wales well above
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB N Ireland and N Scotland normal elsewhere above



USA - IRI - 160918 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal
PPN : No signal but below in N Ireland N England and Scotland



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 140918
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: mostly near normal
PPN: N near normal, above normal in Wales SW, far S and parts of E England
PMSL: Low in S and above to N of UK/Scandinavia
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: near normal chance of below S Eire and Midlands
PPN: NW Eire, N Ireland W Scotland below elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Low in S and above to N of UK/Scandinavia
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: N near normal elsewhere above
PPN: Above normal, mainly near coasts otherwise mainly no signal
PMSL: below normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: near normal chance of below in NW
PPN: N near normal, above normal in Wales SW, far S and parts of E England
PMSL: no signal



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 140918
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: S normal elsewhere below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP: Season: Above normal
DEC Above normal nearer normal in S JAN Above normal FEB Above normal
PPN: Season: NE UK and perhaps SW England below elsewhere above
DEC S above N below JAN above normal perhaos below in far S FEB mostly below locally above N England and Eire




ECMWF - monthly - 120918
TEMP:
DEC near normal JAN below normal but N Scotland N Ireland Eire W Wales and SW England normal FEB near normal
PPN:
DEC S and E of England E Scotland and SE Eire above elsewhere mostly below normal JAN S and E of England E Scotland and E Eire above elsewhere mostly below normal FEB locally above in SE Scotland and E Eire elsewhere mostly below normal




UKMO - 110918 -
TEMP: Above normal most likely with mod probs UQ.
PPN : Above normal most likely in Eire and W UK with chance UQ. Elsewhere near normal most likely.
PSML: N half UK and Eire below normal chance of LQ elsewhere no signal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060918
TEMP:
DEC normal but above in Eire JAN Scotland normal elsewhere above normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC S England and far NW Scotland beow elsewhere above JAN above normal FEB above normal but Midlands below



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN above normal FEB S normal N above
PPN :
DEC Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN below normal but N England, N Wales and S Scotland normal FEB below normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080918
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: uncertain near normal - see monthly data.



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150918
TEMP: season - above normal
DEC above or well above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN rate: season - near normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England
DEC near normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England JAN near normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England FEB near normal



NMME Graphics 090918

CFS2 MAX and MIN
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly
200



2019 JAN FEB MAR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130918
TEMP:
JAN above normal but Wales and England well above FEB bove normal but Wales and England well above MAR Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal
PPN:
JAN above normal FEB above normal but NE and S Scotland and N England normal MAR England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080918
TEMP: Season: above normal or well above normal
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020918
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland normal elsewhere above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP:
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal MAR Above normal
PPN:
JAN above normal perhaos below in far S FEB mostly below locally above N England and Eire MAR below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060918
TEMP:
JAN Scotland normal elsewhere above normal FEB above normal MAR normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB above normal but Midlands below MAR England and E Wales below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB S normal N above MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN below normal but N England, N Wales and S Scotland normal FEB below normal MAR normal locally below in SW England and SW Eire





2019 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130918
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080918
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but E Scotland and E England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020918
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: Normal locally above in SW England and W Wales



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP:
FEB Above normal MAR Above normal APR Above normal
PPN:
FEB mostly below locally above N England and Eire MAR below normal APR below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060918
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR normal APR normal but Englnd and S Wales above
PPN :
FEB above normal but Midlands below MAR England and E Wales below elsewhere above APR above normal but NW Scotland below



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
FEB S normal N above MAR above normal APR normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR normal locally below in SW England and SW Eire APR Scotlandand N England normal elsewhere below normal





2019 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 160918 - Limted data - Continuation of above normal temperatures indicated but some months may be nearer normal. Precipitation differences between modela but some indication for normal or below normal most likely in the south with the north more likely normal or above.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130918
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland
PPN: Season: above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP: Season: Above normal
MAR Above normal APR Above normal MAY Above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal APR below normal MAY below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060918
TEMP:
MAR normal APR normal but England and S Wales above MAY normal
PPN :
MAR England and E Wales below elsewhere above APR above normal but NW Scotland below MAY above normal



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR normal locally below in SW England and SW Eire APR Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal MAY NW Eire and N half Scotland normal elsewhere below





2019 APR MAY JUN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP:
APR Above normal MAY Above normal JUN Above normal
PPN:
APR below normal MAY below normal JUN below normal



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
APR normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal MAY NW Eire and N half Scotland normnal elsewhere below JUN E England and W Scotland below elsewhere normal





2019 MAY JUN JUL



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP:
MAY Above normal JUN Above normal JUL Above normal
PPN:
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL S UK above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY NW Eire and N half Scotland normnal elsewhere below JUN E England and W Scotland below elsewhere normal JUL Wales and S half England normal elsewhere above





2019 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 160918 - BCC and CanSIPS data only - above normal temperatures suggested but uncertain rainfall. UK especially the South may be drier than average in first half of summer otherwise near or above normal rainfall.


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
JUN Above normal JUL Above normal AUG Above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN below normal JUL S UK above elsewhere below AUG N above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 050918
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal but Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland normal
PPN :
JUN E England and W Scotland below elsewhere normal JUL Wales and S half England normal elsewhere above AUG above normal





2019 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120918 -
TEMP:
JUL Above normal AUG Above normal SEP Above normal
PPN:
JUL S UK above elsewhere below AUG N above elsewhere below SEP below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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