SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - July 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 080820 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Japan JMA, ECMWF monthly, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), BCC China, UKMO seasonal, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble.

KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics if available.
Graphics via WMO: Pretoria, Beijing not avalaible.

Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010820 060820 ) Temperature graphics (060820), E3 graphics (060820), Russia 020820, CanSips 010820, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060820, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 060820, NMME and CFS2 graphics 060820.
Graphics via WMO:

International IMME is available again from NCEP

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



SEP OCT NOV

Summary - -




There seems to be an cold bias in the North Sea in CFS which was incorrect last year. NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060820
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal locally above in Devon
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally above in SE England and NW Scotland OCT normal but above in Eire W and central Scotland and E England NOV normal locally below in Eirfe, W Wales Cornwall and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010820
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in E England, Midlands, Eire and W Scotland
SEP mostly above normal OCT normal in Ireland NE Scotland Wales and SW England elsewhere above NOV S and E normal elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060820
TEMP:
SEP normal locally above in S Wales OCT normal locally above in Scotland and N Ireland NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP above normal OCT below normal locally above E Scotland and NE England NOV above normal but below in NE Scotland



Russia 020820
Temp: normal
PPN : below normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
SEP England and Wales above elsewhere normal OCT Wales and S and E England normal elsewhere below NOV mostly below normal
PPN :
SEP N half Scotland above, SW of UK and SE England below elsewhere normal OCT above normal NOV mostly below normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 060820
TEMP: SEASON: 4 out of 7 outputs above normal 3 normal.
PPN: SEASON: 3 out of 7 have NW of UK above normal, 2 hint at the S/SW UK and Eire being below normal otherwise near normal.

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


NASA anomaly .
200


ECMWF monthly
200


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

Top row: 200hPa CFS2 mean height. Middle: CFSv2 anomaly 200hPa. Lower row: NMME anomaly data 1 deg grib

200





2020 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060820
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV normal locally above in Devon DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT normal but above in Eire W and central Scotland and E England NOV normal locally below in Eirfe, W Wales Cornwall and SE England DEC above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010820
TEMP: l
OCT normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT normal in Ireland NE Scotland Wales and SW England elsewhere above NOV S and E normal elsewhere above DEC above in W Scotland Wales, Midlands and N England elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060820
TEMP:
OCT normal locally above in Scotland and N Ireland NOV above normal DEC normal locally above in Scotland and Eire
PPN :
OCT below normal locally above E Scotland and NE England NOV above normal but below in NE Scotland DEC S above N below



CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
OCT Wales and S and E England normal elsewhere below NOV mostly below normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT above normal NOV mostly below normal DEC normal but Ireland above





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060820
TEMP:
NOV normal locally above in Devon DEC above normal JAN above normal but N ireland and N half Eire normal
PPN:
NOV normal locally below in Eirfe, W Wales Cornwall and SE England DEC above normal JAN above normnal but N Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010820
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN normal but above in S England
PPN:
NOV S and E normal elsewhere above DEC above in W Scotland Wales, Midlands and N England elsewhere normal JAN normal but above in SW England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060820
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal locally above in Scotland and Eire JAN normal locally above in Scotland
PPN :
NOV above normal but below in NE Scotland DEC S above N below JAN above normal locally below in N England and N Scotland



CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
NOV mostly below normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV mostly below normal DEC normal but Ireland above JAN S below but N above





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary - -



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060820
TEMP: Season: above normal, well above in SE England
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010820
TEMP: Season: normal but above in S England
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England, Wales and Midlands



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060820
TEMP:
DEC normal locally above in Scotland and Eire JAN normal locally above in Scotland FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC S above N below JAN above normal locally below in N England and N Scotland FEB above normal



CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB Ireland and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN :
DEC normal but Ireland above JAN S below but N above FEB mostly normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 060820
TEMP: SEASON: 5 out of 7 have above normal, 1 has England normal and elsewhere below normal and the other England above normal elsewhere normal.
PPN: SEASON: NW half of UK may be above normal, S and SE England normal or below normal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

NASA anomaly .
200


ECMWF monthly
200



2021 JAN FEB MAR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060820
TEMP: Season: above normal, well above in S and E England
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010820
TEMP: Season: Ireland normal elsewgere above
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England, Wales, W Midlands and SW Eire



CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB Ireland and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR N above S normal
PPN :
JAN S below but N above FEB mostly normal MAR SE below but NW above





2021 FEB MAR APR


CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
FEB Ireland and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR N above S normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB mostly normal MAR SE below but NW above APR normal but NW Scotland above





2021 MAR APR MAY



Summary - 190720- minimal data - Near normal temperatures but possible drier than average across the north.

CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
MAR N above S normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN :
MAR SE below but NW above APR normal but NW Scotland above MAY normal but above in SW England, N England, S Scotland, N and W Ireland






2021 APR MAY JUN


CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY normal JUN normal but Ireland below
PPN :
APR normal but NW Scotland above MAY normal but above in SW England, N England, S Scotland, N and W Ireland JUN normal locally below in SW Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire





2021 MAY JUN JUL


CanSIPS - 010820
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal but Ireland below JUL normal but Ireland, W Scotland, Wales and W Midlands below
PPN :
MAY normal but above in SW England, N England, S Scotland, N and W Ireland JUN normal locally below in SW Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire JUL normal but Midlands and S of England below





2021 JUN JUL AUG





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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