SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - September 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 151019(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), International IMME, UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMO graphics.
Graphics via WMO: CPTEC, Pretoria, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011019 080919 ) Temperature graphics (081019) E3 graphics (081019), Russia 011019, CanSips 300919, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051019, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 081019, ECMWW EFFIS monthly 081010, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 091019, NMME and CFS2 graphics 091019, BCC China 101019, UKMO seasonal 111019, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC) 141019, Japan JMA 141019, USA - IRI 151019.

Graphics via WMO: WMO multi ensemble 141019. UKMO, DWD, CMC, BoM, Seoul, Washington, ECMWF, Toulouse 131019. Moscow, Tokyo 141019
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 NOV DEC JAN

Summary - -



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141019
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal, S well above
PPN: Season: above normal but E England normal
NOV normal but above in Eire N Ireland and W half of Scotland DEC above normal well above in SW Eire and SW England JAN E and SE England normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081919
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal but NE Scotland normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in NE and SE Scotland
NOV above normal locally normnal in SE England and NE Scotland DEC above normal locally normal in E England JAN normal locally above in SW Eire and W Highland Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011019
TEMP: Season: Above normal
NOV above normal but N Scotland normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland and SE England
NOV above normal but central S England normal DEC above normal but E of UK normal JAN above normal but NE SDcotland and SE England normal



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 151019 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Above normal but no signal for E Scotland and NE England



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Japan JMA 141019
Temp: Season above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN : Season above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PMSL: Season S above normal N below (WSW strong)
NOV below normal (WSW strong) DEC S above normal N below (WSW strong) JAN S above normal N below (WSW strong)



From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France). Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 141019
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Using Tercile summary.
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E normal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: Below normal in N above over S France
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: East coast below, Wales and W Midlands above elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal but abve to the East
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: near normal
PPN: SW England, above Scotland below elsewhere normal
PMSL: above in far N below in S
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E normal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: N half UK below, normal in S
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E England normal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: N and W below elsewhere normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: S and E normal elsewhere above
PMSL: N below S above most of UK normal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E coast normal elsewhere above
PMSL: S normal elsewhere below normal



UKMO - 111019 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above normal with a enhanced prob for well above normal
PPN : Above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal. Chance of normal or below in eastern areas and well below in NE Scotland.
PSML: Below or well below in and to N of UK, S nearer normal but prob of above normal to south of UK (Windier than average)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above norma
NOV above normal DEC above normal but locally below in S and far N JAN below normal but E England above



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 081019
Temp: mostly above normal near normnal in N Scotland and W Eire
PPN : normal but above in S Eire, S Wales and S England
PMSL: below normal especially in NE
Brazil persistend (predicted not available) sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : normal but above in SE England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051019
TEMP:
NOV near normal DEC normal but below in E England JAN normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
NOV above normal DEC Scotland below elsewhere above normal JAN above normal



Russia 011019
Temp: N and W below but S and E normal
PPN : No signal but far N of Scotland may be below



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
NOV above normal but normal in much of Eire DEC S Eire below, most of N and E above. JAN S Eire below, elsewhere above.
PPN :
NOV W Scotland normal locally above elsewhere below normal DEC mostly normal but W Scotland above JAN mostly above but E UK normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091019
TEMP: season : above normal (only one model normal). Monthly NASA below normal Nov/Dec
PPN rate: above normal (5 models above 2 normal)



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

NASA anomaly .
200
ECMWF monthly 080119 EFFIS
200



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height mean of CFS2 and NCAR data 1 deg grib 081019

200



WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined UKMO, DWD, CMC, BoM, Seoul, Washington, ECMWF, Toulouse. 141019. WILL UPDATE when others available 200


Anomalies. 131019
UKMO monthly
200

BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
This output looks slightly less wet than EFFIS data from 1st October?
200

Toulouse monthly
200

141019
Tokyo monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200


Summary of 3 month data data from WMO at low resolution FOR SW ENGLAND ONLY.
WMO multi ensemble (part data)
TEMP 50-60% prob above normal but individual months only 40-50% PPN Above normal but no signal for November
ECMWF
TEMP above normal PPN above normal (Nov normal and Jan normal in south.)
DWD
TEMP normal (Jan above) PPN normal (Jan wetter)
CMC
TEMP above normal PPN normal (Dry Nov, normal Dec and Wet Jan)
BoM
TEMP below normal PPN above normal
Russia
TEMP slightly below normal (JAN below normal) PPN normal
UKMO
TEMP above normal PPN normal locally above in north of region.
Seoul
TEMP above normal PPN above normal (Jan normal)
Tokyo
TEMP normal (Nov above normal) PPN normal (Jan above normal)
Toulouse
TEMP PPN
Washington
TEMP above normal PPN above normal (normal for Nov an Jan)
Beijing
TEMP PPN
Pretoria
TEMP PPN
Brazil
TEMP PPN




2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary - -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141019
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal, S well above FEB well above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but E England normal
DEC above normal well above in SW Eire and SW England JAN E and SE England normal elsewhere above normal FEB above normal, Scotland well above.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081919
TEMP: Season: above normal, well above in S
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal especially in S
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC above normal locally normal in E England JAN normal locally above in SW Eire and W Highland Scotland FEB above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011019
TEMP: Season: Above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland and SE England
DEC above normal but E of UK normal JAN above normal but NE Scotland and SE England normal FEB normal but SW Scotland and S Eire above normal



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 151019 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Below normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
PPN : Season
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
PMSL: Season
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC



Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal. - PMSL suggest windier than average.
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E UK normal elsewhere above
PMSL: N below S normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Scotland and N England below elsewhere normal
PMSL: W normal E above
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: N half UK, E Eiore and Wales above normal, elsewhere normal
PPN: Parts of Eire above, far N Scotland below elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E UK normal elsewhere above
PMSL: below normal especially the N
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: E England normal elsewhere above
PMSL: S normal elsewhere below
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: South and E England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: E below, Scotland and N Ireland, NW Eire above elsewhere normal
PMSL: S Eire, England and Wales above, N Scotland below elsewhere normal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normaL
PPN: E England normal elsewhere above
PMSL: S England aboveN Eire, N Ireland N England and Scotland below elsewhere normal




UKMO - 111019 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above normal with a enhanced prob for well above normal
PPN : Above normal especially with enhanced probs for well above normal. Chance of normal or below in SE England and NE Scotland.
PSML: Below or well below over and to N of UK, S nearer normal (Windier than average)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC above normal but locally below in S and far N JAN below normal but E England above FEB above normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 081019
Temp: mostly normal but above in Wales, N England, S half of Scotland and NE England
PPN : normal but above in S Eire, S Wales and S England
PMSL: below normal especially in NE
Brazil persisted (predicted not available) sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN :near normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051019
TEMP:
DEC normal but below in E England JAN normal but England and Wales above FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC Scotland below elsewhere above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal but S England normal



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
DEC S Eire below, most of N and E above. JAN S Eire below, elsewhere above. FEB S Eire below, most of N and E above.
PPN :
DEC mostly normal but W Scotland above JAN mostly above but E UK normal FEB SE England normal elsewhere below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091019
TEMP: season : above normal (all models but NCAR normal in North). Monthly NASA colder in December and NCAR colder in February otherwise all above normal.
PPN rate: Season : above normal (4 above 3 normal)



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN6

NASA anomaly .
200

ECMWF monthly
200



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200



2020 JAN FEB MAR




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141019
TEMP:
JAN above normal, S well above FEB well above normal MAR S England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN:
JAN E and SE England normal elsewhere above normal FEB above normal, Scotland well above. MAR Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081919
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal especially in S MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN normal locally above in SW Eire and W Highland Scotland FEB above normal MAR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011019
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN above normal but NE SDcotland and SE England normal FEB normal but SW Scotland and S Eire above normal MAR normal but above normnal in Eire, NW England and Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP: Season:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR N and E above normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN: Season:
JAN below normal but E England above FEB above normal MAR below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051019
TEMP:
JAN normal but England and Wales above FEB above normal MAR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB above normal but S England normal MAR W UK above normal elsewhere normal



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
JAN S Eire below, elsewhere above. FEB S Eire below, most of N and E above. MAR S Eire below, elsewhere above.
PPN :
JAN mostly above but E UK normal FEB SE England normal elsewhere below MAR SE England normal elsewhere below





2020 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141019
TEMP:
FEB well above normal MAR S England above normal elsewhere normal APR normal but SE England above
PPN:
FEB above normal, Scotland well above. MAR Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above APR above normal but N half Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081919
TEMP: Season: above normal especilly in S
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011019
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal SE England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR N and E above normal elsewhere slightly above normal APR slightly above normal
PPN:
FEB above normal MAR below normal APR N Scotland below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051019
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal but parts of Wales, Central Eire and Scotland above normal
PPN :
FEB above normal but S England normal MAR W UK above normal elsewhere normal APR normal but above in Eire, N England and Wales



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
FEB S Eire below, most of N and E above. MAR S Eire below, elsewhere above. APR SW Eire below, SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN :
FEB SE England normal elsewhere below MAR SE England normal elsewhere below APR mostly normal but below ion Eire, NN ireland SW England and NW Scotland





2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141019
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal but E Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081919
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season:normal locally above normal in SW Eire, SE England and W Highland Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011019
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR N and E above normal elsewhere slightly above normal APR slightly above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal APR N Scotland below elsewhere above MAY below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051019
TEMP:
MAR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal but parts of Wales, Central Eire and Scotland above normal MAY normal
PPN :
MAR W UK above normal elsewhere normal APR normal but above in Eire, N England and Wales MAY above normal



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
MAR S Eire below, elsewhere above. APR SW Eire below, SE England above elsewhere normal MAY normal but far W below
PPN :
MAR SE England normal elsewhere below APR mostly normal but below ion Eire, NN ireland SW England and NW Scotland MAY normal locally above in W Eire



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091019
TEMP: season : above normal (only one model normal)
PPN rate: near normal perhaps locally above



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly and mean CFS2+NCAR 200hPa data 1 deg grib 091019

200



2020 APR MAY JUN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141019
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal but E Scotland and E England normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP:
APR slightly above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR N Scotland below elsewhere above MAY below normal JUN below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051019
TEMP:
APR normal but parts of Wales, Central Eire and Scotland above normal MAY normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR normal but above in Eire, N England and Wales MAY above normal JUN normal but Eire and Central Lowland Scotland above, Wales and W of England below



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
APR SW Eire below, SE England above elsewhere normal MAY normal but far W below JUN mostly below normal
PPN :
APR mostly normal but below ion Eire, NN ireland SW England and NW Scotland MAY normal locally above in W Eire JUN below normal but N Scotland normal





2020 MAY JUN JUL


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL S below N above A



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
MAY normal but far W below JUN mostly below normal JUL SE England above elsewhere below
PPN :
MAY normal locally above in W Eire JUN below normal but N Scotland normal JUL below normal but N Scotland normal





2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - -



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: N half Scotland above elsewhere below normal
JUN below normal JUL S below N above AUG S below N above



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
JUN mostly below normal JUL SE England above elsewhere below AUG SE England normal elsewhere below
PPN :
JUN below normal but N Scotland normal JUL below normal but N Scotland normal AUG below normal but W Scotland, NW Englad and N Wales normal





2020 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL S below N above AUG below N above SEP England and Wales above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 300919
TEMP:
JUL SE England above elsewhere below AUG SE England normal elsewhere below SEP SE England normal elsewhere below
PPN :
JUL below normal but N Scotland normal AUG below normal but W Scotland, NW Englad and N Wales normal SEP below normal





2020 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 101019 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below N above SEP England and Wales above elsewhere below OCT Scotland N Ireland and N Eire below eleswhere above





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

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