SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - April 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 240518(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010518 070518 130518 200518), Russia 300518, CanSips 300518, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070518, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080518, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080518, UKMO seasonal 120518, ECMWF monthly 120518, BCC China 130518, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 140518, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 150518, Japan JMA 160518, JAMSTEC 160518, USA - IRI 170518, Korea APCC 240518, International IMME (delayed) 240518.
Data received after summary written.
NOT AVAILABLE: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO


Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO intermodel comparison

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London


SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 170518 - Possibly a warmer than average summer especially for the southern half of the UK perhaps less strong a signal for nothern areas. Drier than normal too although the south of the UK may see a wet August. Temperature Only NASA and METEOFRANCE forecast below normal temepratures with the main signal for near or slightly above normal temperatures this summer. Some modelas, like UKMO suggest larger positive anomalies.
Rainfall Several models signal drier early summer months with wetter August but not much agreement as to where the wetter areas might be.
Pressure is likely to be above normal across the UK.




WMO Long Range Multi Model Ensemble - 180518
Temperature: Roughly evenly split, above normal [Moscow, Montreal (SE UK only), Seoul, Beijing, Exeter and ECMWF(N only)] and below normal [Melbourne, Brazil, Offenbach, Pretoria, Washington, Toulouse and ECMWF(SW only)]. Near normal Tokyo and Montreal(N).
No signal ECMWF (most of UK).
Precipitation: Main signal for below normal (Moscow (S) Melbourne(N) Seoul, Beijing, Brazil(SW) Offenback (mainly S), Exeter(SW), Pretorin(N), Washington, ECMWF, Tokyo(S), above normal Mebourne(S of UK) and Pretoria (S of UK).
No signal Moscow(N of UK) and Tokyo (N of UK)
Mean of multi model ensemble shown below:
TX TX


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200518
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal but above in most of Scotland, Wales, Devon, Midlands and E England JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in miost areas except normal in SE third of England and N of Scotland
JUN BElow normal all UK JUL normal but below in Central and S Scotland N England Wales and Midlands AUG normal but above in Eire, NW Scotland and E England but below in NE Scotland and N/W Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130518
TEMP: Season: near normal
JUN near normal (+/-0.5C) JUL near normal AUG near normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Wales, NW England, S and E Scotland
JUN below normal but Eire, N Ireland N and W Scotland and NE England normal JUL NW Scotland above normal, below normal for S Eire SW England Wales and W Midlands elsewhere normal AUG Above normal in central Eire, Cornwall and SE England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070518
TEMP: Season: near normal
JUN near normal JUL near normal AUG near normal
PPN: Season: Below normal in S Eire Wales N and NW England, W Midlands SW England and S England elsewhere normal
JUN normal but above in W Eire and below in NE Scotland Wales SW England and Kent. JUL NW Scotland above N Ireland, central and NE Scotland normal elsewhere below normal AUG W Scotland above below in S Eire SW England Wales W Midlands NW England and S Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020518
TEMP: Season: near normal
JUN near normal JUL near normal AUG near normal
PPN: Season:
JUN N Eire N Ireland S and W Scotland and Mildlands above normal elsewhere normal JUL NW Scotland above normal S Eire, S Scotland, England and Wales below elsewhere normal AUG W Scotland above normal below in SE Eire, Wales S and W England elsewhere normal




Korea APCC - 240518
Temp: Season near normal
JUN slightly above normal JUL no signal AUG no signal
PPN : Season no signal - similar probs above/normal/below
JUN mostly no signal but hint at above in far N and below in far S JUL no signal AUG no signal



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 170518 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Above normal in N Ireland, W Scotland, SE Scotland and NE England perhaps W Wales elsewhere no signal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160518
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: N normal S below normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 160518
Temp: Season SW Eire and far SW UK below normal elsewhere above
JUN Eire and far SW England below elsewhere above JUL Eire and far SW England below elsewhere above AUG W Eire below normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season Scotland and N Ireland above normal elsewhere below
JUN above normal JUL below normal AUG far N Scotlamnd above normal elsewhere below
PMSL: Season far N Scotland below elsewhere above normal. (weak WNW)
JUN below (weak WNW) JUL above normal (weak WNW) AUG above normal (WNW)



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150518
Comment: French solution much colder than other models. UKMO slightly different from UKMO own web site. UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: near normal
PPN: near normal but below in S England, Eire and N Ireland.
PMSL: Slightly above normal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Slightly above normal in S elsewhere near normal
PPN: N half of UK near normal elsewhere below normal
PMSL: above normal especially in S
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal but below in S
PMSL: Slightly below in N and above in S
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: well below normal
PPN: S near normal N below normal
PMSL: Slightly above normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 140518
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: slightly above normal
Brazil PERSISTED sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal



GloSea5 joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60km at mid-latitude region, grid spacing ocean and sea-ice models 0.25deg. Model top 85km able to resolve interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 140518 -
TEMP: Season: Above normal more than 1 deg C anomaly
JUN above normal JUL above normal less so in N AUG above normal
PPN : Season: Normal but below in Scotland N Ireland W Wales and NW England
JUN below normal JUL normal but Eire and N Ireland below normal AUG normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal
PMSL: Season above normal but normal in far S
JUN above normal JUL normal but above in N AUG above normal but normal in far S



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal but far north near normal JUL above normal, well above in S AUG above normal, well above in S
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN below normal JUL below normal AUG below normal




(LT lower MT middle UT upper tercile L/M/UQ etc for quintile)
UKMO - 120518 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Over 60% prob of above median, Eire and N Ireland middle tercile, elsewhere UT more than 60% prob in NE and E Scotland and England. Enhanced probs UQ. Conclusion above normal most likely.
PPN : Mostly similar prob categories for above/normal/below but SW UK and Eire over 40% prob for LT, enhanced probs for LQ Eire and S third of UK plus far N Scotland. Conclusion near normal but S of UK and Eire may be below normal
PSML: MT for central area for normal UT for above normal in S and W. Enhanced probs for UQ in Eire, N Ireland and S of England. Conclusion increased chance of above normal pressure in S and W.




ECMWF - monthly - 120518 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUN near normal (+/-0.5 deg F) JUL near normal locally above in Midlands and central S England AUG near normal locally above in S Wales, Midlands and most of S England
PPN:
JUN Eire, W of N Ireland Wales and England S ofSheffield below normal but NW Scotland and NE England above normal elsewhere near normal (+-/0.05inch) JUL below normal AUG Eire N Ireland NW Wales and S Scotland/N England above normal elsewhere mostly below normal
PMSL:
JUN above normal especially in S JUL above normal AUG above normal




USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070518
TEMP:
JUN below normal JUL below normal AUG below normal
PPN :
JUN SE above elsewhere below normal JUL Scotland below elsewhere above AUG above normal



Russia 300418
Temp: Eire and N Ireland no signal (similar probs A/N/B) elsewhere above normal
PPN : England and Wales below normal elsewhere no signal (similar probs A/N/B)



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
Cansips 300418
TEMP: Season: normal in Eire, Cornwall and far N Scotland elsewhere above normal
JUN Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JUL Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal AUG Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season: normal but below in Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland N England Wales and all SW of England.
JUN Far N Scotland above below in S Scotland England Wales N Ireland and Eire elsewhere normal JUL normal but N Scotland below AUG normal but SE England above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080518
TEMP: season - Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN rate: season - Near normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 240518
TEMP: season - Near normal
JUN Near normal JUL Near normal AUG Near normal
PPN rate: season - Near normal
JUN Near normal JUL Near normal AUG Near normal




Graphics 080518
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


ECMWF monthly 120518
200




2018 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200518
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally below in NW Wales abd above near the Wash
JUL normal but below in Central and S Scotland N England Wales and Midlands AUG normal but above in Eire, NW Scotland and E England but below in NE Scotland and N/W Wales SEP normal but above in SE England and below in N Ireland, Central and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130518
TEMP: Season: near normal
JUL near normal AUG near normal SEP near normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in E Angia and near Shannon
JUL NW Scotland above normal, below normal for S Eire SW England Wales and W Midlands elsewhere normal AUG Above normal in central Eire Cornwall and SE England elsewhere normal SEP normal but above in Central and W Scotland S and W Eire E idlands and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070518
TEMP:
JUL near normal AUG near normal SEP near normal
PPN:
JUL NW Scotland above N Ireland, centrakl and NE Scotland normal elsewhere below normal AUG W Scotland above below in S Eire SW England Wales W Midlands NW England and S Scotland elsewhere normal SEP Wales and S of England normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 0205185
TEMP: Season: near normal
JUL near normal AUG near normal SEP near normal
PPN: Season: NW Scotland above beklow in SW Eire N Wales and NW Midlands elsewhere near normal
JUL NW Scotland above normal S Eire, S Scotland, England and Wales below elsewhere normal AUG W Scotland above normal below in SE Eire, Wales S and W England elsewhere norml SEP normal locally above in Central Eire, Devon and NW England



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150518
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: slightly above normal in S elsewhere normal
PPN: slightly below normal mainly S and E of UK
PMSL: strong signal for above normal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: slightly above normal in S elsewhere normal
PPN: slightly below normal mainly S and E of UK
PMSL: strong signal fo above normal centred on N England/N Sea/Denmark
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: slightly below normal in far S/SW
PMSL: above normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: **below normal**
PPN: below normal especially in north
PMSL: above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal, well above in S AUG above normal, well above in S SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG below normal SEP below normal




UKMO - 120518 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above or well above normal most likely
PPN : Below normal most likely
PSML: Above normal most likely but the S may be nearer normal




ECMWF - monthly - 120518 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUL near normal locally above in Midlands and central S England AUG near normal locally above in S Wales, Midlands and most of S England SEP near normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG Eire N Ireland NW Wales and S Scotland/N England above normal elsewhere mostly below normal SEP mostly below normal but NE Eire and N Ireland above
PMSL:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070518
TEMP:
JUL below normal AUG below normal SEP below normal
PPN :
JUL Scotland below elsewhere above AUG above normal SEP N Scotland below elsewhere above



Cansips 300418
TEMP:
JUL Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal AUG Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal SEP normal
PPN :
JUL normal but N Scotland below AUG normal but SE England above SEP above normal locally normal SW Eire and SW England





2018 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200518
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal b ut above in SE and E England
AUG normal but above in Eire, NW Scotland and E England but below in NE Scotland and N/W Wales SEP normal but above in SE England and below in N Ireland, Central and W Scotland OCT normal but above in S all of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130518
TEMP: Season: near normal
AUG near normal SEP near normal OCT near normal
PPN: Season: near normal but locally above in S Midlands and locally below in SW and NE Scotland
AUG Above normal in central Eire Cornwall and SE England elsewhere normal SEP normal but above in Central and W Scotland S and W Eire E idlands and NE England OCT normal but below in Scotland, N England N Ireland and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070518
TEMP:
AUG near normal SEP near normal OCT near normal
PPN:
AUG W Scotland above below in S Eire SW England Wales W Midlands NW England and S Scotland elsewhere normal SEP Wales and S of England normal elsewhere above normal OCT mostly beow normal but SE England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 0205185
TEMP: Season: near normal
AUG near normal SEP near normal OCT near normal
PPN: Season: near normal but abiove in NW Scotgland and below in Cornwall Wales and W Midlands
AUG W Scotland above normal below in SE Eire, Wales S and W England elsewhere norml SEP normal locally above in Central Eire, Devon and NW England OCT Above in W Scotland below in N Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland, N and W Engl;and Wales and Cornwall elsewhere normal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150518
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: near normal but central Eire and England (except the SW) above normal
PPN: near normal
PMSL: above normal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal but below in S UK
PMSL: above normal
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal but perhaops below in SW England and S Eire
PMSL: near normal perhaos above in S Eire and SW UK.
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Eire, England, Wales and S Scotland normal elsewhere below normal
PPN: near normal
PMSL: above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal, well above in S SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal SEP below normal OCT Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere above




ECMWF - monthly - 120518 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
AUG near normal locally above in S Wales, Midlands and most of S England SEP near normal OCT near normal locally above in S Wales S and SW England and SW Midlands
PPN:
AUG Eire N Ireland NW Wales and S Scotland/N England above normal elsewhere mostly below normal SEP mostly below normal but NE Eire and N Ireland above OCT W Wales W Scotland NW Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere mostly below
PMSL:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT N Scotland below elsewhere above (stronger W'lies)




UKMO - 120518 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above or well above normal most likely category.
PPN : Below normal most likely category
PSML: N and NE above normal most likely category elsewhere normal or above.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070518
TEMP:
AUG below normal SEP below normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG above normal SEP N Scotland below elsewhere above OCT Scotland below elsewhere above



Cansips 300418
TEMP:
AUG Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal SEP normal OCT normal locally above in SE England
PPN :
AUG normal but SE England above SEP above normal locally normal SW Eire and SW England OCT above normal





2018 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 170518 -
Milder than normal overall especially later in the season with October possibly cooler than normal in central areas of the UK. Wetter than average for the season but parts of the south and east of UK and Eire may be drier until November. No agreement where/when wetter and drier areas will occur.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200518
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SE England
SEP normal but above in SE England and below in N Ireland, Central and W Scotland OCT normal but above in S all of England NOV normal but above in W and S Scotland N and Midlands England also Wales.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130518
TEMP: Season: near normal
SEP near normal OCT near normal NOV near normal
PPN: Season: near normal but above in SW Eire and far W Scotland
SEP normal but above in Central and W Scotland S and W Eire E idlands and NE England OCT normal but below in Scotland, N England N Ireland and W Eire NOV normal but above nornal in Eire N Ireland, SW and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070518
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: W Eire above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 0205185
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal


IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 170518 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Above normal in Wales and parts of Midlands but below normal in far N Scotland, elsewhere no signal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160518
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: N below normal, Eire above normal elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: far N near normal but elsewhere below normal
SEP below normal OCT Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere above NOV Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere near normal




ECMWF - monthly - 120518 - data from href="https://weather.us/site/tos">Weather US
TEMP:
SEP near normal OCT near normal locally above in S Wales S and SW England and SW Midlands NOV near normal
PPN:
SEP mostly below normal but NE Eire and N Ireland above OCT W Wales W Scotland NW Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere mostly below NOV Wales, Midlands and S of England above also NE Scotland elsewhere mostly below normal
PMSL:
SEP above normal OCT N Scotland below elsewhere above (stronger W'lies) NOV Above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070518
TEMP:
SEP below normal OCT above normal NOV below normal
PPN :
SEP N Scotland below elsewhere above OCT Scotland below elsewhere above NOV above normal



Cansips 300418
TEMP: Season: Normal in Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England elsewhere above normal
SEP normal OCT normal locally above in SE England NOV Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season: Normal in Cornwall S Eire and N Scotland elsewhere above normal
SEP above normal locally normal SW Eire and SW England OCT above normal NOV Eire and N hald Scotland normal elsewhere above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080518
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: season - N Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland N England and Wales above normnal elsewhere normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 240518
TEMP: season - Near normal
PPN rate: season - Near normal





NMME Graphics 080518

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly 120518
200



2018 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200518
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in S of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130518
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070518
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 0205185
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN: Season:
OCT Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere above NOV Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere near normal DEC S Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070518
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV below normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT Scotland below elsewhere above NOV above normal DEC above normal



Cansips 300418
TEMP:
OCT normal locally above in SE England NOV Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere above normal DEC Eire and N Ireland below normal elsewhere normal
PPN :
OCT above normal NOV Eire and N hald Scotland normal elsewhere above DEC Scotland and NE half of England normal elsewhere above normaL.





2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200518
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130518
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Eire, W and central Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN below normal
PPN:
NOV Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere near normal DEC S Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere above JAN below normal




USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070518
TEMP:
NOV below normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN N and NW UK below elsewhere above normal



Cansips 300418
TEMP:
NOV Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere above normal DEC Eire and N Ireland below normal elsewhere normal JAN normal but Scotland and SE England above
PPN :
NOV Eire and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above DEC Scotland and NE half of England normal elsewhere above normaL. JAN normal locally above in SW England





2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - 150518 - limited data
No agreement - near or above normal temperatures especially in the north. Precipitation near normal in the south above in the north.



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160518
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: S of England above normal elsewhere normal below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP: Season: England near or below normal elsewhere above normal
DEC above normal JAN below normal FEB above normal but near normal in E England
PPN: Season: below normal
DEC S Eire and S half of UK below normal elsewhere above JAN below normal FEB Wales and S half of England below normal elsewhere above



Cansips 300418
TEMP: Season: Normal in Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England elsewhere above
DEC Eire and N Ireland below normal elsewhere normal JAN normal but Scotland and SE England above FEB above normal
PPN : Season: Far SW Eire, N and NE England and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal.
DEC Scotland and NE half of England normal elsewhere above normaL. JAN normal locally above in SW England FEB below normal





2019 JAN FEB MAR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP:
JAN below normal FEB above normal but near normal in E England MAR S UK and Eire above normal elsewhere below
PPN:
JAN below normal FEB Wales and S half of England below normal elsewhere above MAR N Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal



Cansips 300418
TEMP:
JAN normal but Scotland and SE England above FEB above normal MAR normal locally above in W Highlands
PPN :
JAN normal locally above in SW England FEB below normal MAR normal in E and N England, Scotland N Ireland and Eire elsewhere above normal .





2019 FEB MAR APR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal but near normal in E England MAR S UK and Eire above normal elsewhere below APR above normal
PPN:
FEB Wales and S half of England below normal elsewhere above MAR N Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal APR neaer or below normal but SW Eire above



Cansips 300418
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR normal locally above in W Highlands APR normal locally above in SW Scotland and NW England
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR normal in E and N England, Scotland N Ireland and Eire elsewhere above normal APR normal but below in SW England and Eire.





2019 MAR APR MAY



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130518 -
TEMP: Season: Slightly above normal
MAR S UK and Eire above normal elsewhere below APR above normal MAY far S below normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland and N Scotland below normal elsewhere above
MAR N Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal APR neaer or below normal but SW Eire above MAY above normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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