SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

Follow @T2mike
Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - January 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 150219(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), International IMME, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, WMO multi model graphics, Korea APCC. Not available. India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (310119 070219 120219) Temperature graphics (120219) E3 graphics (120119), Russia 310119, CanSips 310219, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 080219, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) 100219, BCC China 100219, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110219, UKMO seasonal 110219, Melbourne 130219, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC), Japan JMA 140219, ECMWF monthly (WMO) graphics 150219, JAMSTEC 150219, KMA 150219.
Data received after summary written .



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 MAR APR MAY

Summary -



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW England, W Scotland and S and W Eire
MAR SW Eirem Wales and SW third of UK above normal NE below elsewhere normal APR normal locally above SW Eire and NW Scotland MAY normal but above in Eire and most of Scotland except SE.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP: Season: above normal in Wales and S half England elsewhere normal
MAR normal but above in far S of England except Cornwall APR above normal especially in S MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in E Scotland and E England
MAR normal but above in Eire, Wales and S half England APR above normal but normal in Midlands, centrral S and SE/E England and NE Scotland MAY above normal but niormal in N Ireland, S England and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP: Season: normal but above in all S of England
MAR normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but normal in NE Scotland N England and E Midlands
MAR N and E Scotland, N Ireland and NE England normal elsewhere above APR normal but above normal in Eire SW England Wales NW England and W Scotland MAY normal but above in W Scotland



KMA - 150219 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season N normal elsewhere above
MAR N normal elsewhere above APR SE Eire, SE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above MAY normallocally above in SW Eire and below in NE Scotland
PMSL: Season S normal N below
MAR below normal APR N below S normal MAY England above



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150219
Temp: Season: N normal S below
PPN : Season: mostly below normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season above normal
MAR Scotland and England below elsewhere above normal APR England and Wales below normal elsewhere above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY below normal
PMSL: Season below normal (W)
MAR below normal (WNW) APR above normal MAY above normal (weak WSW)



From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C) or +/-20mm rain. Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile). Below based on Tircile summary and ensemble mean anomaly.
Copernicus C3S - 130219
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal perhaps below in far N Scotland
PMSL: near normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: normal but S Scotland England and Wales above normal
PPN: S above N normal
PMSL: N normal elswhere below
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: near or above normal, above ormal especially in Eire and N Ireland
PPN: N half Scotland below elsewhere normal but chance of SW UK being above
PMSL: S below normal N normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but above in Wales and S half of England, also some coastal areas.
PPN: near normal locally below in N Midlands
PMSL: normal but above to NW of UK
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: near or above normal, above especially for England and Wales
PPN: near normal chance of below in N Scotland
PMSL: normal but above normal in and to the N and E of UK
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal chance of below in N Scotland
PMSL: normal but above normal to the N and E of UK



Melbourne - 130219
TEMP: Season: mostly below normal
MAR mostly below normal APR normal but Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland and N England below normal MAY mostly below normal
PPN : Season: Above in SW England, below in N Ireland MN half of Eire and SW Scotland elsewhere near normal
MAR Eire, N Ireland and SW Scotland below elsewhere normal APR S Wales SW England and SW Midlands above elsewhere normal MAY normal but below in Eire, N Ireland and S half of Scotland




UKMO - 111019 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : no signal apart from SW Scotland and NW Wales above normal and S Eire and SW Wales normal. Slightly increased chance of NE Scotland and E England being well below normal.
PSML: above or well above normal more likely than below



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110219
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but locally above in NE Scotland
PPN : normal but locally above in W Cornwall, SW half of Eire and NW Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR above normal but only slightly in S APR above normal MAY above normal but only slightly in S
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal but Scotland slightly above APR below normal MAY below normal but England and Wales slightly above normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 100219
TEMP: above normal
PPN: England and Wales no signal elsewhere above normal

SAWS SCM GPC multi member ensemble. - 100219
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
MAR normal locally below over hills N England and S Scotland APR normal MAY normal locally above in Scotland
PPN :
MAR S normal, but S Devon and Dorset below, elsewhere mostly above APR Mixed picture: below in parts of S Wales, SW and N England, S and W Scotland N Ireland and SW Eire elsewhere mostly above MAY Lothians, FiFe and E Highlands below elsewhere above



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN :
MAR normal APR England and Wales above, far NW Scotland below elsewhere normal MAY normal but SE England above



Russia 310119
Temp: England and Wales above elsewhere no signal
PPN : above normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080219
TEMP: season: Above normal (Monthly 3 models have normal or colder in places March)
PPN rate: Eire and SW UK above normal elsewhere normal





NMME and CFS2 Graphics 080219

CFS2 MAX and MIN not shown
CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


ECMWF monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200


2019 APR MAY JUN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP:
APR Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal JUN Wales and S England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN:
APR normal locally above SW Eire and NW Scotland MAY normal but above in Eire and most of Scotland except SE. JUN normal but above in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and NE Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP:
APR above normal especially in S MAY normal JUN normal
PPN:
APR above normal but normal in Midlands, centrral S and SE/E England and NE Scotland MAY above normal but normal in N Ireland, S England and Midlands JUN above normal but normal in NE Scotland and eastern coastal England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season:
APR normal but above normal in Eire SW England Wales NW England and W Scotland MAY normal but above in W Scotland JUN normal but above in Midlands and below in S and W Eire




UKMO - 111019 -
TEMP: above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : normal or below normal with slightly increased chance of well below normal.
PSML: above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal but only slightly in S JUN above normal but only slightly in N
PPN:
APR below normal MAY below normal but England and Wales slightly above normal JUN N above S below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal locally above in Scotland JUN mostly above JUL normal
PPN :
APR Mixed picture: below in parts of S Wales, SW and N England, S and W Scotland N Ireland and SW Eire elsewhere mostly above MAY Lothians, FiFe and E Highlands below elsewhere above JUN Eire, N Ireland Most of Scotland except SE, NW England and parts of NE Midlands below elsewhere mostly above



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY normal JUN above normal but normal in most of Eire and SW UK
PPN :
APR England and Wales above, far NW Scotland below elsewhere normal MAY normal but SE England above JUN above normal but noral in W Eire, Cornwall and N Scotland





2019 MAY JUN JUL




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN Wales and S England above normal elsewhere normal JUL above normal especially in S
PPN:
MAY normal but above in Eire and most of Scotland except SE. JUN normal but above in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and NE Eire JUL normal but below in N half of Scotland and near Bristol Channel

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219 4
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY above normal but niormal in N Ireland, S England and Midlands JUN above normal but normal in NE Scotland and eastern coastal England JUL normal locally below in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY normal but above in W Scotland JUN normal but above in Midlands and below in S and W Eire JUL S England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere below normal




UKMO - 111019 -
TEMP: above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : not much signal, chance of above in SW England and below in Scotland
PSML: Mostly above normal but SE third of England similar prob for normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal but only slightly in S JUN above normal but only slightly in N JUL below normal
PPN:
MAY below normal but England and Wales slightly above normal JUN N above S below JUL slightly above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in Scotland JUN mostly above JUL normal
PPN :
MAY Lothians, FiFe and E Highlands below elsewhere above JUN Eire, N Ireland Most of Scotland except SE, NW England and parts of NE Midlands below elsewhere mostly above JUL mostly above



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN above normal but normal in most of Eire and SW UK JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal but SE England above JUN above normal but noral in W Eire, Cornwall and N Scotland JUL normal





2019 JUN JUL AUG




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
JUN Wales and S England above normal elsewhere normal JUL above normal especially in S AUG above normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUN normal but above in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and NE Eire JUL normal but below in N half of Scotland and near Bristol Channel AUG mostly below normal but normal in NE Scotland and Central Southern England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal ut below in SW Eire and far W Scotland



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150219
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
JUN above normal but only slightly in N JUL below normal AUG above normal but only slightly in N and W
PPN: Season: England and Wales below elsewhere above
JUN N above S below JUL slightly above AUG below normal especially in S



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
JUN mostly above JUL normal AUG mostly above
PPN :
JUN Eire, N Ireland Most of Scotland except SE, NW England and parts of NE Midlands below elsewhere mostly above JUL mostly above AUG mostly above



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
JUN above normal but normal in most of Eire and SW UK JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN above normal but noral in W Eire, Cornwall and N Scotland JUL normal AUG normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080219
TEMP: season : above normal
PPN rate: normal



CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5



2019 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Devon and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NW Scotland and SW Eire



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
JUL below normal AUG above normal but only slightly in N and W SEP above normal but only slightly in N and W
PPN:
JUL slightly above AUG below normal especially in S SEP N normal or above but S below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG mostly above SEP normal
PPN :
JUL mostly above AUG mostly above SEP mostly above but SE Scotland below



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal but above in Wales Midlands N England and S Scotland





2019 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal but Eire normal
PPN :
AUG normal SEP normal but above in Wales Midlands N England and S Scotland OCT N ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal but only slightly in N and W SEP above normal but only slightly in N and W OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal especially in S SEP N normal or above but S below OCT N slightly above elsewhere slightly below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
AUG mostly above SEP normal OCT mostly above
PPN :
AUG mostly above SEP mostly above but SE Scotland below OCT England, Wales and NE Scotland below elsewhere above normal





2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150219
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: below normal but SE England above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
SEP above normal but only slightly in N and W OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: N slightly above elsewhere below
SEP N normal or above but S below OCT N slightly above elsewhere slightly below NOV Slightly below but Scotland slightly above



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal but Eire normal NOV above normal but SW Eire normal
PPN :
SEP normal but above in Wales Midlands N England and S Scotland OCT N ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV normal but below in SW England S Wales and S Eire





2019 OCT NOV DEC



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT N slightly above elsewhere slightly below NOV Slightly below but Scotland slightly above DEC slightly above



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
OCT above normal but Eire normal NOV above normal but SW Eire normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT N ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV normal but below in SW England S Wales and S Eire DEC England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal





2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal but only slightly in S
PPN:
NOV Slightly below but Scotland slightly above DEC slightly above JAN N slightly below S slightly above



CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
NOV above normal but SW Eire normal DEC above normal JAN normal but S Scotland England and Wales above normal
PPN :
NOV normal but below in SW England S Wales and S Eire DEC England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal





2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary -



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal but only slightly in S FEB above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above
DEC slightly above JAN N slightly below S slightly above FEB slightly above





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data