SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - October 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 161118(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC
Not available: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011118 071118 141118) also E3 graphics (071118 141118) and Temp graphs (141118), CANSIP 011018, Russia 011118, ECMWF monthly 051118, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071118, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 091118, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 091118, UKMO seasonal 111118, BCC China 111118, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF CMCC DWD) 131118, Japan JMA 131118, KMA 131118, International IMME 151118, USA - IRI 151118, JAMSTEC 161118
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - 171118 -
Temperature: The main indication is for the temperature to be near normal for the season with a hint of the far S being above normal. The start of winter could be milder than the end compared to monthly average. Monthly data suggests increased uncertainty for February with some models showing above and some below average. Many models suggests similar probabilities for the three categories of above/normal/below. (It should be noted that near normal would be above normal if referenced to the 1961 to 1990 period due the rise in average temperatures since that time).
Precipitation: Main indication near normal but above normal in parts of the S and perhaps E of UK. Large variation in models but some agreement that December may be the wettest compared to normal and that the north could be be drier in places in January and February.
Sea Level Pressure: Chance of below normal pressure in south and above average pressure in north.



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141118
TEMP: Season: near normal but above in S England
DEC near normal JAN near normal but above in S England FEB above normal
PPN: Season: near normal but above in S and SW England and parts of Eire
DEC near normal but locally above in Devon and below in NW Scotland JAN above normnal but near normal S and E Eire and much of Scotland except the east FEB near normal but above in Eire SW England and Central Lowlands Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071118
TEMP: Season: N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
DEC N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal FEB above normal Wales and S England well above
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC normal but above in N and W Eire, N Ireland W and SW Scotland and NW England JAN mostly abover normal FEB above nromal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011118
TEMP: Season: Above normal but well above in S England
DEC N Ireland above normal elsewhere well above (1 to 2C anom) JAN W Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB above normnal but S of England well abiove
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC above normal but E Scotland and E England normal JAN above normal FEB above normal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 161118
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: NW below and SE above



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 151118 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal
PPN : No signal but S and W Eire below and NW Scotland above



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France). Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 131118
1: Mean anomaly (near normal +/-0.2C). 2: Tercile summary. Quintile not used unless strong signal.
TEMP: 1: near normal 2: no signal
PPN: 1: near normal 2: no signal but hint far N below and far S above
PMSL: 1: SW UK and S Eire below elsewhere near normal 2:
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: 1. no signal 2: 2. no signal but far NW below normal
PPN: 1: W Eire, N and W Scotland below normal elsewhere nosigal. 2: W Eire N Ireland and Scotland below, hint at SW England above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: 1: S Eire and S UK normal elsewhere in UK and Scandinavia above 2: S no signal elsewhere above normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: 1: no signal but S Wales and S/SE half of England slightly above. Hint of far NW Scotlabd being slgihtly below. 2: 2. no signal
PPN: 1: SE Eire and S UK above normal elsewhere no signal. 2: no signal but SW England above
PMSL: 1: Below normal 2: S below elsewhere no signal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: 1: no signal but Scotland and E coast England slightly above 2: above normal but Eire N Ireland N England and S Scotland no signal
PPN: 1: no signal. 2: no signal but N Scotland below
PMSL: 1: Above normal 2: Above normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: 1: no signal but SE England slgihtly above. 2: 2. no signal but SE Eire, Wales and S UK above normal
PPN: 1: E Scotland and SE England above elsewhere no signal. 2: no signal but above normal in parts of Eire, N Ireland SW and NE Scotland Wales and S/SE England
PMSL: 1: below normal 2: Eire below elsewhere no signal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: 1: no signal but N and W Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N/NE England and N Midlands below. 2: S no signal elsewhere below stronger signal in N
PPN: 1: no signal but far N Scotland below. 2: no signal but below normal in SW Midlands SW Eire N Scotland
PMSL: 1: S below N near normal 2: no signal



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 131118 - .
Temp: Season: S/SE England above elsewhere near normal
DEC normal but SE above JAN above FEB normal
PPN : Season near normal
DEC normal JAN normal FEB normal locally below in far N
PMSL: Season England and Wales below normal elsewhere normal
DEC SE normal elsewhere above normal JAN normal SW above and NE below FEB below normal



Japan JMA - 131118 - (51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season Above average
DEC Above average JAN Above average FEB Above average
PPN : Season Below average
DEC Scotland and SW UK above average elsewhere below JAN Below average FEB Below average but above in East
PMSL: Season above average but below over France (WSW)
DEC Above average (SW) JAN Above average (strong SW) FEB N above S below (SW)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal but lower probs in W FEB above normal
PPN: Season: S above N below
DEC NW below SE above JAN above normal but Scotland below normal FEB below normal




UKMO - 111118 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: No signal / similar probs for above/normal/below but a hint that SW England may be above normal and slightly increased probs for the S to be well above and the NE of UK well below (LQ/UQ probs 25-40%).
PPN : Chance that the SW, NE and E of UK could be above, N Scotland near normal and elsewhere no signal. Well above normal (UQ) slightly increased probs for UK and Eire but not Scotland
PSML: Probs favour below (or well below) normal pressure over Eire and UK as well as E and SE but nearer normal in the North.



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 091118
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: slighty below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : S above elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071118
TEMP:
DEC S UK above elsewhere normal JAN slightly above FEB slightly above but N above and far S normal
PPN :
DEC above normal JAN S and SE normal, NW Scotland below elsewhere above normal FEB below normal




ECMWF - monthly - 051118 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
DEC above normal but Eire, N Ireland, W and N Scotland and Cornwall normal JAN above normal but SW England and SW Wales normal FEB normal but below in Eire, E Wales Midlands and S England except Kent, W Devon and Cornwall.
PPN:
DEC Above n ormal but SW England and parts of Midlands normal JAN Above in E Eire and W Scotland elsewhere mainly below FEB E England and SW England above elsewhere mainly below
PMSL:
DEC below average JAN above FEB SE normal elsewhere abov



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
DEC above normal but Wales SW England and Eire normal JAN N above S normal FEB below normal
PPN :
DEC N Scotland N Ireland and W Eire normal elsewhere above normal JAN S Scotland and E England normal elsewhere below FEB below normal



Russia - 011118
Temp: NW UK below elsewhere no signal or normal
PPN : NW Scotland below, S half Eire and SW UK above elsewhere no signal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091118
TEMP: season - above normal (Only CMC2 was normal 6/7 models above normal)
PPN rate: Below normal or normal (NCEP above normal in NW elsewhere normal, NCAR above normal, CMC 1 and 2 also GFDL below others normal.



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151118
TEMP: season - slightly above normal
DEC slightly above normal JAN slightly above normal FEB slightly above normal
PPN rate: Season - near normal
DEC near normal JAN near normal FEB near normal



NMME Graphics

CFS2 MAX and MIN not available
CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly
200



2019 JAN FEB MAR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141118
TEMP:
JAN near normal but above in S England FEB above normal MAR near normal
PPN:
JAN above normnal but near normal S and E Eire and much of Scotland except the east FEB near normal but above in Eire SW England and Central Lowlands Scotland MAR near normal but below in SW Highland Scotland and above in SW England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071118
TEMP:
JAN Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal FEB above normal Wales and S England well above MAR normal
PPN:
JAN mostly above normal FEB above nromal MAR normal in EIre, N Ireland NE Scotland and SW Midlands elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011118
TEMP:
JAN W Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB above normnal but S of England well abiove MAR S and SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal but lower probs in W FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN: :
JAN above normal but Scotland below normal FEB below normal MAR above normal




UKMO - 111118 -
TEMP: Chance of above normal in S and below normal in NE.
PPN : SE Eire, S and E UK above normal or well above but NW Scotland below
PSML: Probs favour below (or well below) normal pressure over Eire and S UK with the N and NE nearer normal.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071118
TEMP:
JAN slightly above FEB slightly above but N above abd far S normal MAR normal but England and Wales slgihtly above
PPN :
JAN S and SE normal, NW Scotland below elsewhere above normal FEB below normal MAR NW Scotland slightly below elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
JAN N above S normal FEB below normal MAR S normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JAN S Scotland and E England normal elsewhere below FEB below normal MAR below normal but S Svotlandm, N Ireland and N England normal





2019 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141118
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR near normal APR near normal
PPN:
FEB near normal but above in Eire SW England and Central Lowlands Scotland MAR near normal but below in SW Highland Scotland and above in SW England APR above normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071118
TEMP:
FEB above normal Wales and S England well above MAR normal APR normal
PPN:
FEB above nromal MAR normal in EIre, N Ireland NE Scotland and SW Midlands elsewhere above APR normal but below in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011118
TEMP:
FEB above normnal but S of England well abiove MAR S and SE England above elsewhere normal APR normal
PPN:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR normal locally below in far NW and locally above in Cornwall



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season:
FEB below normal MAR above normal APR N above normal elsewhere below




UKMO - 111118 -
TEMP: Chance of above normal or well above normal in S/SW and below normal in NE.
PPN : Eire, S and E UK above normal or well above but N Scotland below
PSML: Probs favour below (or well below) normal pressure over Eire and S UK with the N nearer normal.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071118
TEMP:
FEB slightly above but N above abd far S normal MAR normal but England and Wales slgihtly above APR normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR NW Scotland slightly below elsewhere above APR mostly slightly above



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
FEB below normal MAR S normal elsewhere above APR above normal but SW England and Eire normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR below normal but S Svotlandm, N Ireland and N England normal APR normal locally below in SW Eire





2019 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 171118
Temperature: Slightly above normal for season, but may start off nearer normal in March.
Precipitation: No consistency in output. Main theme near normal but chance of below in places most likely in S but Scotland may be below normal in March. Parts of N England and S Scotland may be see above normal rain in April.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141118
TEMP: Season: near normal
MAR near normal APR near normal MAY near normal but above normal in central lowland Scotland
PPN: Season: near normal but above in SW England, Kent and NE Midlands
MAR near normal but below in SW Highland Scotland and above in SW England APR above normal MAY near normal locally below in W Midlands
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in N England, S Scotland and Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: NW Scotland slightly below elsewhere above


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: above nornal but central Scotland below
MAR above normal APR N above normal elsewhere below MAY S above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071118
TEMP:
MAR normal but England and Wales slgihtly above APR normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR NW Scotland slightly below elsewhere above APR mostly slightly above MAY mostly slightly below




ECMWF - monthly - 051118 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
MAR normal APR normal locally above in Highland Scotland MAY above normal
PPN:
MAR below normal but above in SW England W Wales and E Eire also coastal NE Scotland and NE England (suggests N'ly) APR normal but below in N Ireland and N Scotland and above in NE England MAY mostly below normal
PMSL:
MAR NW above SE below APR normal MAY above normal



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
MAR S normal elsewhere above APR above normal but SW England and Eire normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR below normal but S Scotland, N Ireland and N England normal APR normal locally below in SW Eire MAY normal but NW UK above





Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091118
TEMP: season - above normal (all 7 models)
PPN rate: N above S normal (most models normal NCAR above in N CFS2 above in far SW)



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151118
TEMP: season - near normal
MAR near normal APR near normal MAY sllightly above normal
PPN rate: Season - near normal
MAR near normal APR near normal MAY near normal






NMME Graphics 091118

CFS2 MAX and MIN not available
CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


ECMWF monthly
200


2019 APR MAY JUN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141118
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 071118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: NW Scotland slightly below elsewhere above


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011118
TEMP: Season: normal locally above W Scotland and S England
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR N above normal elsewhere below MAY S above elsewhere below JUN below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071118
TEMP:
APR normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR mostly slightly above MAY mostly slightly below JUN mostly above



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
APR above normal but SW England and Eire normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR normal locally below in SW Eire MAY normal but NW UK above JUN normal but SW UK above





2019 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141118
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP: Season:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally below normal in central Scotland
MAY S above elsewhere below JUN below normal JUL S below N above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 071118
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL slighty above normal
PPN :
MAY mostly slightly below JUN mostly above JUL mostly above



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal but S Eire and SW England normal l
PPN :
MAY normal but NW UK above JUN normal but SW UK above JUL normal locally above in Eirem N Ireland SW Scotland and NW England





2019 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 171118 - Minimal data - Above normal temperatures, rainfall near normal perhaps below in N and above in S



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG below normal
PPN: Season: Central and E England above elsewhere below
JUN below normal JUL S below N above normal AUG N below S above normal



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal but S Eire and SW England normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal but SW UK above JUL normal locally above in Eirem N Ireland SW Scotland and NW England AUG normal





2019 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG below normal SEP above normal but near normal in S
PPN:
JUL S below N above normal AUG N below S above normal SEP above normal



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
JUL above normal but S Eire and SW England normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal locally above in Eirem N Ireland SW Scotland and NW England AUG normal SEP N Scotland above Eire, S Wales and S England below elsewhere normal





2019 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP:
AUG below normal SEP above normal but near normal in S OCT NE above SW below
PPN:
AUG N below S above normal SEP above normal OCT below normal



CanSIPS - 011118
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal SEP N Scotland above Eire, S Wales and S England below elsewhere normal OCT W below elsewhere normal NOV





2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111118 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
SEP above normal but near normal in S OCT NE above SW below NOV above normal
PPN: Season: NW below SE above
SEP above normal OCT below normal NOV below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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