SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - June 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 160719(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC
South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMO graphics.
Graphics via WMO: CPTEC missing


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010719 070719 140719 ) Temperature graphics (070719) E3 graphics (070719), CanSips 300619, Russia 020719, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060719, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 110719, NMME and CFS2 graphics 110719, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110719, UKMO seasonal 130719, JAMSTEC 130719, ECMWF monthly 130719, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC) 130719, KMA 130719, BCC China 150719, International IMME 150719, USA - IRI 160719, Japan JMA 160719.

Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, Seoul 110719. UKMO, Washington 130719, Toulouse, ECMWF, Pretoria, Tokyo, Beijing 140719, WMO multi ensemble (CPTEC missing). Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 AUG SEP OCT

Summary - 160719 - A few models suggest near normal temperatures, typically early in the three month season and above normal later but the overwhelming majority suggest a continuation of near and for periods above normal temperatures across the UK and Eire. Forecast rain patterns do not form any agreement but there are some hints at longer dry spells early in the season and overall hints at wetter in the north and less so in the south for the season as a whole. Pressure may also be above average, chiefly in the south of the UK.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140719
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Eire Wales and all S of England
AUG above normal SEP normal OCT above normal
PPN: Season: normal
AUG normal but below in Wales, Midlands and SW England SEP above normal OCT normal but below in S/SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070719
TEMP: Season: N England and S Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
AUG normal but S Eire, S Wales and all S England above SEP normal but SW England above OCT above normal
PPN: Season: normal but NW Scotland above and below in SE Eire Wales and SW England
AUG normal but Wales Midlands and all S of England below SEP normal b ut below in SW Scotland N Ireland E Eire S Wales and SW Egland OCT normal but above in Scotland and below in S and E Eire and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010719
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SW England and SW Eire
AUG near normal SEP near normal but SW England and SW Eire above OCT normal but above in W Scotland and much of Eire and perhaps W Cornwall
PPN: Season:normal locally above in NW Scotland
AUG N Wales, Midlands and SE England below. W Scotland and N Ireland above elsewhere normal SEP normal locally above in NW Scotland OCT normal locally above in E England



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)- 160719
Temp: Season above normal
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN : Season above normal
AUG above normal SEP below normal OCT above normal
PMSL: Season below normal but far S may be above (W)
AUG below normal but far S may be above (WNW) SEP above normal (WSW) OCT below normal (WSW cyclonic)



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 160719 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : S Scotland, Wales, N England and Midlands below normal elsewhere no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP: Season: near or above normal
AUG near or above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
AUG below normal SEP below normal OCT England and Wales normal or above elsewhere below normal



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 130719 - .
TEMP: Season above normal
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN : Season W Scotland and SE England abive E Scotland below elsewhere no signal
AUG no signal but above in Wales, Midlands and S of England SEP no signal but normal in NE Scotland and above in NW Scotland OCT no signal but below normal in N
PMSL: Season below normal but SW UK and Eire no signal
AUG no signal SEP below normal OCT no signal



From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France). Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 130719
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal / near normal locally below in NW UK and far S UK
PMSL: above normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: near normal
PPN: no signal risk of above in S
PMSL: above normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal but locally above in NW UK
PMSL: above normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: above normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: mostly above normal
PMSL: near normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal but chance of above except SE UK
PMSL: above normal




UKMO - 130719 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: above normal - chance of below 20% or less - chance of well above normal over 54%
PPN : uncertain but N Scotland more likely above. Eire and SW England more likely below normal
PSML: N more likely normal or below elserwhere normal or above



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 110719
Temp: normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: normal or slightly above
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal buit above in E England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060719
TEMP:
AUG normal locally above Eire, Scotland, S Wales and Midlands SEP normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG Below normal in Eire, Midlands N Scotland. Above in S Wales, N Ireland, S Scotland, N England, E and SW England SEP S below N above OCT above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below SEP normal locally below in Eire, W Wales and Cornwall OCT N above S normal



Russia 020719
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal or no signal






Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 1107196
TEMP: season : above normal
PPN rate: normal locally below in SW England and W Eire



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150719
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: Season - normal (October SW below normal)




EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200


NASA anomaly 050519.
200

Summary of 3 month data data from WMO at low resolution. Dates as graphic.
WMO multi ensemble - missing CPTEC Brazil data - 160719
TEMP above normal PPN no signal / no agreement

ECMWF
TEMP above normal PPN no signal
DWD
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
CMC
TEMP above normal PPN normal
BoM
TEMP similar probs A/N/B PPN similar probs A/N/B
Russia
TEMP normal PPN normal
Brazil MISSING
TEMP PPN
UKMO
TEMP above normal PPN similar probs A/N/B
Seoul
TEMP above normal PPN similar probs A/N/B
Pretoria
TEMP normal PPN below normal
Tokyo
TEMP above normal PPN normal
Toulouse
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Beijing
TEMP no signal PPN no signal
Washington
TEMP above normal PPN similar probs A/N/B



WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability of anomaly - 160719 CPTEC missing
200


BOM monthly 110719
200

Canada monthly 110719
200

Moscow monthly 110719
200

DWD monthly 110719
200

SEOUL monthly 110719
200

Washington monthly 130719
200

UKMO monthly 130719
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO 140719
200

Toulouse monthly 140719
200

Pretoria monthly 150619
200

Tokyo monthly 150619
200

Beijing monthly 150619
200

ECMWF monthly 150619
200



2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 160719 - Temperature for the season and most months likely to be above normal or at worst normal, chance of below normal (1981-2010) is very low. Rainfall possibly below normal in the S or SW and perhaps the E of the UK but elsewhere normal or above normal is more likely. There is no agreement as to which months could be drier/wetter in the south but stronger signal for the north to be wetter than normaln except in November.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140719
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Eire Wales SW England and NW Scotland
SEP normal OCT above normal NOV normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Scotland Wales N, W and SW England
PPN: Season: normal
SEP above normal OCT normal but below in S/SE England NOV normal locally beow in S Wales/Avon

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070719
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP normal but SW England above OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: S below, elsewhere normal
SEP normal but below in SW Scotland N Ireland E Eire S Wales and SW Egland OCT normal but above in Scotland and below in S and E Eire and SW England NOV normal but below in Midlands, Wales and all S of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010719
TEMP: Season: normal but above in COnrwall Eire, N Ireland and Scotland
SEP near normal but SW England and SW Eire above OCT normal but above in W Scotland and much of Eire and perhaps W Cornwall NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally above in NW Scotland OCT normal locally above in E England NOV normal but below in S Eire, Wales and all S third of England

BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV near or above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales above elsewhere below
SEP below normal OCT England and Wales normal or above elsewhere below normal NOV N Scotland below normal elsewhere above


UKMO - 130719 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: above normal - chance of below 20% or less - chance of well above normal over 54%
PPN : Eire and East UK uncertain but elsewhere above normal more likely
PSML: N more likely below normal elserwhere normal



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 130719
Temp: Season: Eire and N Ireland normal or below elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060719
TEMP:
SEP normal OCT above normal NOV normal but above in Eire,N ireland Scotland and S Wales
PPN :
SEP S below N above OCT above normal NOV Scotland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal locally below in Eire, W Wales and Cornwall OCT N above S normal NOV NE and SW of area normal elsewhere above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 1107196
TEMP: season : above normal
PPN rate: Scotland above normal elsewhere normal but locally below in SW England



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150719
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: Season - normal hint below in SW (October and November SW below normal)



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly 150619
200



2019 OCT NOV DEC




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140719
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Scotland Wales N, W and SW England DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT normal but below in S/SE England NOV normal locally beow in S Wales/Avon DEC above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070719
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT normal but above in Scotland and below in S and E Eire and SW England NOV normal but below in Midlands, Wales and all S of England DEC Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010719
TEMP:
OCT normal but above in W Scotland and much of Eire and perhaps W Cornwall NOV above normal DEC normal
PPN:
OCT normal locally above in E England NOV normal but below in S Eire, Wales and all S third of England DEC normal but below in W Scotland

BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV near or above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT England and Wales normal or above elsewhere below normal NOV N Scotland below normal elsewhere above DEC N Scotland above normal elsewhere below

USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060719
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV normal but above in Eire,N ireland Scotland and S Wales DEC normal
PPN :
OCT above normal NOV Scotland below elsewhere above DEC Scotland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC normal but N Scotland above normal
PPN :
OCT N above S normal NOV NE and SW of area normal elsewhere above DEC SW above NW below elsewhere normal





2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140719
TEMP:
NOV normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Scotland Wales N, W and SW England DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV normal locally beow in S Wales/Avon DEC above normal JAN normal but above in S Scotland Wales W and SW England also N Ireland and Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070719
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland N Ireland and Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010719
TEMP: Season: Scotland and N England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP:
NOV near or above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV N Scotland below normal elsewhere above DEC N Scotland above normal elsewhere below JAN above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060719
TEMP:
NOV normal but above in Eire,N ireland Scotland and S Wales DEC normal JAN above normal but Scotland normal
PPN :
NOV Scotland below elsewhere above DEC Scotland below elsewhere above JAN above normal



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal but N Scotland above normal JAN N above S normal
PPN :
NOV NE and SW of area normal elsewhere above DEC SW above NW below elsewhere normal JAN Eire, Wales and W Midlands above elsewhere normal





2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary - 160719 - Winter temperatures mostly above normal but hints that N and W could be less mild in February. Mixed signal for precipitation but above normal seems likely with chance that far N or far S could have some drier than average months. Snowfall probably below average except perhaps on mountains.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140719
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070719
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland N Ireland and Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010719
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in far NW Scotland


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland above elsewhere below
DEC N Scotland above normal elsewhere below JAN above normal FEB N Scotland above elsewhere below



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 130719
Temp: Season: England and Wales above elsewhere below normal
PPN : Season: above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060719
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN above normal but Scotland normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC Scotland below elsewhere above JAN above normal FEB above normal



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
DEC normal but N Scotland above normal JAN N above S normal FEB E above W normal
PPN :
DEC SW above NW below elsewhere normal JAN Eire, Wales and W Midlands above elsewhere normal FEB NW below SE above elsewhere normal





EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200



2020 JAN FEB MAR




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140719
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN above normal FEB N Scotland above elsewhere below MAR Scotland above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060719
TEMP:
JAN above normal but Scotland normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
JAN N above S normal FEB E above W normal MAR normal
PPN :
JAN Eire, Wales and W Midlands above elsewhere normal FEB NW below SE above elsewhere normal MAR normal but NW Scotland below





2020 FEB MAR APR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB N Scotland above elsewhere below MAR Scotland above elsewhere below APR below normal



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
FEB E above W normal MAR normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB NW below SE above elsewhere normal MAR normal but NW Scotland below APR normal





2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 160719 very limeted data - normal or above normal temperatures and precipitation although May could be wetter than average.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland above normal elsewhere below
MAR Scotland above elsewhere below APR below normal MAY above normal but far SW below



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
MAR normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN :
MAR normal but NW Scotland below APR normal MAY SE Eire, Wales, Midlands, E England and NE Scotland above elsewhere normal





2020 APR MAY JUN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN N and W below elsewhere above normal J
PPN:
APR below normal MAY above normal but far SW below JUN S England belopw elsewhere above



CanSIPS 300619
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN :
APR normal MAY SE Eire, Wales, Midlands, E England and NE Scotland above elsewhere normal JUN normal





2020 MAY JUN JUL


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150719 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN N and W below elsewhere above normal JUL below normal
PPN:
MAY above normal but far SW below JUN S England belopw elsewhere above JUL Eire and N Ireland berlow elsewhere near or above normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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