SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - November 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 031219(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Japan JMA, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), NMME and CFS2 graphics, International IMME, ECMWF monthly, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), BCC China, UKMO seasonal, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics if available.
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011219 ) Temperature graphics (011219) E3 graphics (011219), Russia 011219, CanSips 301119, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051219.

Graphics via WMO:


Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2020 JAN FEB MAR

Summary - -



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011219
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half England above normal elsewhere normal
JAN above normal FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB normal but above in W Scotland and below in SE Eire MAR above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051219
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN mostly above normal FEB normal MAR above normal



Russia 011219
Temp: normal or below
PPN : mostly below normal





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

NASA anomaly .
200



2020 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011219
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal but above normal in Scotland, Midlands and SE England
PPN:
FEB normal but above in W Scotland and below in SE Eire MAR above normal APR normal but below in NW England Wales and SW England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051219
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB above normal MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere normal APR Midlands and E England normal elsewhere below normal



CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB normal MAR above normal APR N Scotland above normal elsewhere normal




2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - -


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011219
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SE England
MAR normal APR normal but above normal in Scotland, Midlands and SE England MAY normal but above in N Scotland Midlands, S and SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire, W Midlands and W coast Scotland
MAR above normal APR normal but below in NW England Wales and SW England MAY Above in SW Eire, Wales, S Scotland and most of England except SW, otherwise normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051219
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY W above normal E normal
PPN :
MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere normal APR Midlands and E England normal elsewhere below normal MAY normal but Scotland below normal



CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR above normal APR N Scotland above normal elsewhere normal MAY normal but S below normal J


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN6

NASA anomaly
200





2020 APR MAY JUN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011219
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in S and SE England
PPN: Season: normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051219
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY W above normal E normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR Midlands and E England normal elsewhere below normal MAY normal but Scotland below normal JUN S normal elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR N Scotland above normal elsewhere normal MAY normal but S below normal JUN normal




2020 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011219
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Scotland NW England and SW Eire



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051219
TEMP:
MAY W above normal E normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal but Scotland below normal JUN S normal elsewhere above JUL above normal



CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal but Eire Wales and S two thirds of England normal
PPN :
MAY normal but S below normal JUN normal JUL above normal but far S also far N normal




2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - - .



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 051219
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN S normal elsewhere above JUL above normal AUG above normal



CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal but Eire Wales and S two thirds of England normal AUG mostly above normal
PPN :
JUN normal JUL above normal but far S also far N normal AUG normal but S below normal


NASA anomaly
200



2020 JUL AUG SEP


CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
JUL above normal but Eire Wales and S two thirds of England normal AUG mostly above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL above normal but far S also far N normal AUG normal but S below normal SEP normal but below in SW UK and Scotland




2020 AUG SEP OCT


CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
AUG mostly above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal but S below normal SEP normal but below in SW UK and Scotland OCT normal but below in Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland Wales and all W of England




2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - -



CanSIPS - 301119
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV normal
PPN :
SEP normal but below in SW UK and Scotland OCT normal but below in Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland Wales and all W of England NOV N Ireland and N half Eire below elsewhere noral but far S of England above




2020 OCT NOV DEC






NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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