SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - December 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 280120(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

FINAL UPDATE
Graphics via WMO: Pretoria, Beijing.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (311219 060120 120120 210120 ) Temperature graphics (080120) E3 graphics (060120), Russia 010120, CanSips 301219, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060120, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080120, NMME graphics 090120, Japan JMA 110120, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110120, ECMWF monthly 140120, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP) 140120, UKMO seasonal 140120, BCC China 150120, JAMSTEC 160120, USA - IRI 160120, Korea APCC 230120, UKMO Contingency.

Graphics via WMO: 130120 BoM, CMC, Moscow, DWD 100120. Washington, CPTEC 150120, Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, 280120 UKMO, WMO (11) model ensemble.

International IMME no longer available from NCEP - see WMO graphics and Copernicus

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2020 FEB MAR APR

Summary - 160120 - Temperature: The majority of solutions suggest above normal temeprature for the three months and each month only BoM and Moscow have colder solutions. Allowing for over warm/over cold solutions it looks likely that after a mild start there may be a trebd towards normal values, at least in the south, for either March or April but overall the three month average is likely to be above normal.
Precipitation: WMO multi model has several above or below normal solutions which cancel. The main theme looks to be a risk of above normal in western exposures, especially but not only NW Scotland, and a chance of below normal in eastern areas and perhaps also the south. Month to month data inconsistent but hints at wetter start and drier end to the three month period.
Pressure anomalies suggest lower than average pressure to the north and above over or to the south, hence a windier period than average especially in the north.



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210120
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in Eire and N Ireland
FEB above normal MAR normal APR above normal but W Eire normal .
PPN: Season: above normal but locally normal in SE England and NE Scotland
FEB normal but above in SW England, Wales N and W Midlands, NW England W Scotland N Ireland and Eire MAR above normal but normal in NE Scotland APR above normal but normal in SE Eire and E of UK br>
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120120
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
FEB Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal MAR above normal APR normal
PPN: Season: Above normal in Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, W Wales and SW England elsewhere normal
FEB Above normal in Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, W Wales and SW England elsewhere normal MAR Above normal in Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, W Wales, NW England and SW England, elsewhere normal APR above normal in SW Eire, Wales and SW third of England and W coast Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080120
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB well above normal MAR above normal APR normal but above normal in Scotland
PPN: Season: Eire, N Ireland W Scotland and Cornwall above elsewhere normal
FEB above normal but E of UK normal MAR normal but above normal in W Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, NW England, Wales and Cornwall APR Eire and S and SE England normnal elsewhere below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311219
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR slightly above normal but Eirte and N Ireland normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England, Wales NW England, N Ireland, Eire and W half Scotland
FEB Normal in S and E England and NE Scotland elsewhere above normal MAR normal but above in SW England, Wales NW England, N Ireland, Eire and W half Scotland APR normal




UKMO contingency - 270120

UKMO says stratospheric vortex stronger than average and likely to remain so. EC and GFS suggest warming evening likely in first week of February with possible split in vorext but GFS 15 day suggest 10hPa vortex restrengthens at least for a time though with further "Canadian" warming. TEMP:
Feb: Very few model runs normal or below (UKMO say 5% prob or less of colder than average). Median anomaly about plus 2 C.
Season (FMA): Only a few model runs normal or below (UKMO say 5% prob or less of colder than average). Median anomaly about plus 1 C which if February is correct then suggests near or below average for a period in March or/and April.
PPN:
Feb: Large spread in solutions with one cluster above and one below average, slightly favouring above average rainfall. Suggestion of High pressure in the south might infer a split solution with the north wetter and south drier.
Season (FMA): Even spread in solutions with one cluster above and one below average. Suggestion of High pressure in the south might infer a split solution with the north wetter and south drier. Overall UKMO says slightly below average is just more likely than above average.




Korea APCC - 230120
Temp: Season above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season below normal in south elsewhere normal
FEB normal locally below in far SE MAR normal /no signal APR normal /no signal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMMEbr> USA - IRI - 160120 -
Temp: no signal
PPN : N Ireland, Scotland, N England, Wales and SW England below normal elsewhere no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
FEB Above normal MAR Above normal APR slightly above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
FEB below normal MAR N Scotland above elsewhere below normal APR below normal



UKMO - 140120 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above normal most likely - chance of below normal less than 20%.
PPN : normal or below normal, South more likely below and north more likely normal but far north might be above normal
PSML: Above normal and below to the north of Scotland



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Scotland N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: To the north of Scotland below and to south of England above
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Scotland, N Ireland and S Eire above, E England below, elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: To the north of Scotland below, above in England, Wales, Eire, N Ireland and S Scotland
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Scotland N Ireland above elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: below to the N of Scotland elsewhere no signal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal but Eire only slighly above/near normal
PPN: W Scotland above elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: To the north of Scotland below, above for S Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, Wales and England elsewhere no signal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Scotland N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: To the north of Scotland below elsewhere no signal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Wales and NW England above, Scotland below elsewhere no signal
PMSL: NW Eire below, SE England above elsewhere no signal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal (well above but tends to be over warm)
PPN: Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, Wales and SW England above normnal elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: N Scotland below, above to the south of England otherwise no signal




ECMWF - monthly - 140120 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB W Eire and W Scotland above , below in south and in east (lee shelter) elsewhere normal MAR SW Wales, W Eire and W Scotland above SE England below elsewhere normal APR normal but above in W Scotland N Ireland NW Eire NE England W Wales and locally parts of SW England


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110120
Temp: normal but Scotland above
PPN : mostly near normal but above in SE Eire and East England
PMSL: below normal - less so in SW
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal but above in SE England W Scotland N Ireland and most of Eire



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 060120
Temp: Season above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season N Scotland above elsewhere below
FEB below normal MAR N above normal S below APR S and W Eire above elsewhere below
PMSL: Season above normal (WSW slack in south)
FEB above normal (WSW slack in south) MAR above normal (WSW slack in south H over France) APR above normal (Slack W ridge across south)



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060120
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR normal but Scotland above normal APR above normal but E England normal
PPN :
FEB above normal MAR SE England above normal elsewhere mostly below normal APR above normal but NW Scotland below



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB N normal S below MAR normal APR normal



Russia 010120
Temp: below normal
PPN : mostly no signal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080120
TEMP: SEASON: Above normal (all models in ensemble)
FEB above normal (2 model normal in S)
MAR above normal
APR above normal
PPN: SEASON: Near normal, locally above in W Highland Scotland (some hints at below in SW ENgland)
FEB near normal - mixture of above and below normal solutions cancel out.
MAR near normal but 3 models below and only two above (mainly in NW) makes below normal in S more likely
APR near normal (1 model above in SW and 1 above in NW 1 below in SW.)



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5

NASA anomaly .
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height month mean CFS2, CFS2 anomaly and NMME height anomaly 1 deg grib

200


WMO January 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined 11 models 280120.
200


BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200

UKMO monthly
200



2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 160120 - Normal or slightly above normal temperatures for the season but hints that April could be a cooler than average month or closer to normal. Rainfall for the season probably above normal in W or NW and below normal in the SE or East. Risk that SW England may end up wetter too. Pressure lower than average pressure over or to the north of Scotland but elsewhere reduced signal for above average in or over the south.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210120
TEMP: Season: normal but above in England, Wales and Southern Scotland
MAR normal APR above normal but W Eire normal MAY Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: mostly above normal
MAR above normal but normal in NE Scotland APR above normal but normal in SE Eire and E of UK MAY above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120120
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: Above normal in W Eire and W Scotland elsewhere normal
MAR Above normal in Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, W Wales, NW England and SW England, elsewhere normal APR above normal in SW Eire, Wales and SW third of England and W coast Scotland elsewhere normal MAY below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080120
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR normal but above normal in Scotland MAY above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally beow in SE England and above in NW Scotland
MAR normal but above normal in W Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, NW England, Wales and Cornwall APR Eire and S and SE England normnal elsewhere below normal MAY mostly below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311219
TEMP: Season: above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
MAR slightly above normal but Eirte and N Ireland normal APR normal MAY normal locally above in N Irelandm Scotland N Midlands and SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Eire
MAR normal but above in SW England, Wales NW England, N Ireland, Eire and W half Scotland APR normal MAY normal locally below in W Cornwall and Midlands




Korea APCC - 230120
Temp:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR normal /no signal APR normal /no signal MAY normal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMMEbr> USA - IRI - 160120 -
Temp: no signal
PPN : N Scotland below normal, N Midlands above normal elsewhere no signal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160120
Temp: Season: Below normal
PPN : Season: mostly above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR Above normal APR slightly above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR N Scotland above elsewhere below normal APR below normal MAY slightly above



UKMO - 140120 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above normal most likely - chance of below normal less than 20%.
PPN : above in the N /NW, chance of below in East, elsewhere no signal
PSML: Above normal in south and below to the north of Scotland




ECMWF - monthly - 140120 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN:
MAR SW Wales, W Eire and W Scotland above SE England below elsewhere normal APR normal but above in W Scotland N Ireland NW Eire NE England W Wales and locally parts of SW England MAY normal but below in SW England and S Wales, E Anglia and W EIre parts of Scotland above normal


Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Scotland N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: To the north of Scotland below and to south of England above elsewhere no signal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Scotland, N Ireland, Eire Wales and SW of UK above, elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: To the north of Scotland below, elsewhere no signal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, Wales, N England and SW England above elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: N half of Scotland below elsewhere no signal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: N and W Scotland, N England and SW England above elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: no signal but locally above in E UK
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Scotland and SW Englandabove elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: no signal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Scotland below elsewhere no signal
PMSL: E UK elsewhere no signal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: NW Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above normal, E England below elsewhere no signal/normal
PMSL: N Scotland below, above to the south of England otherwise no signal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110120
Temp: normal but Scotland above
PPN : mostly near normal but above in SE Eire and East England
PMSL: below normal - less so in SW
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal but above in SE England W Scotland N Ireland and most of Eire



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060120
TEMP:
MAR normal but Scotland above normal APR above normal but E England normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR SE England above normal elsewhere mostly below normal APR above normal but NW Scotland below MAY S above normal N below JUN Eire normal elsewhere above normal



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal but NW Scotland above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080120
TEMP: SEASON: Above normal
MAR above normal
APR above normal
MAY above normal, but GFDL model below normal and two near mainly normal in south.
PPN: SEASON: Near normal, locally above N Scotland
MAR near normal but 3 models below and only two above (mainly in NW) makes below normal in S more likely
APR near normal (1 model above in SW and 1 above in NW 1 below in SW.)
MAY near normal - mixed signals above/below in some models



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN6

NASA anomaly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height month mean CFS2, CFS2 anomaly and NMME height anomaly 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly
200



2020 APR MAY JUN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210120
TEMP:
APR above normal but W Eire normal MAY Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above JUN above normal
PPN:
APR above normal but normal in SE Eire and E of UK MAY above normal JUN W Eire above, locally below in NE England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120120
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR above normal in SW Eire, Wales and SW third of England and W coast Scotland elsewhere normal MAY below normal JUN normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080120
TEMP:
APR normal but above normal in Scotland MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR Eire and S and SE England normnal elsewhere below normal MAY mostly below normal JUN normal locally aove in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311219
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal locally above in N Irelandm Scotland N Midlands and SE England JUN normal but southern third of England above normal
PPN:
APR normal MAY normal locally below in W Cornwall and Midlands JUN normal locally below in Midlands but above in W Eire and W Highlands.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP: :
APR slightly above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR below normal MAY slightly above JUN N below , S slightly above




ECMWF - monthly - 140120 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal but Eire and Scotland normal
PPN:
APR normal but above in W Scotland N Ireland NW Eire NE England W Wales and locally parts of SW England MAY normal but below in SW England and S Wales, E Anglia and W EIre parts of Scotland above normal JUN Scotland normal elsewhere below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060120
TEMP:
APR above normal but E England normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR above normal but NW Scotland below MAY S above normal N below JUN Eire normal elsewhere above normal



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN normal but N England and Scotland above normal
PPN :
APR normal MAY normal but NW Scotland above JUN normal J





2020 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210120
TEMP:
MAY Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above JUN above normal JUL normal but above in Scotland, N Ireland and parts of Eire.
PPN:
MAY above normal JUN W Eire above, locally below in NE England elsewhere normal JUL normal but below in SW Eire and above in Wales, Midlands and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120120
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN above normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY below normal JUN normal JUL normnal locally above in W Eire W half Scotland NW England, W Midlands and N Wales.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080120
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in parts of SW UK.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311219
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SE England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY slightly above JUN N below , S slightly above JUL below or well below




ECMWF - monthly - 140120 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal but Eire and Scotland normal JUL above normal but Eire normal
PPN:
MAY normal but below in SW England and S Wales, E Anglia and W EIre parts of Scotland above normal JUN Scotland normal elsewhere below normal JUL normal but above in S Eire, NW Wales N Midlands NE England and S/SE Scotland


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060120
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY S above normal N below JUN Eire normal elsewhere above normal JUL Wales, Midlands and SW England below elsewhere above normal



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN normal but N England and Scotland above normal JUL normal locally below in Eire
PPN :
MAY normal but NW Scotland above JUN normal JUL normal but Scotland above





2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 160120 - Near or above normal tempertures, possibly July the nearest to average. Rainfall variable, mainly near normal. Some drier than average areas likely - possibly central southern England but also indications for above average in places too - no clear guide to drier or wetter months.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210120
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Scotland and E Anglia
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120120
TEMP: Season: Normal
PPN: Season: Normal locally above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080120
TEMP: Season: normal locally above normal in N Scotland and SE England
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311219
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SE England



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160120
Temp: Season: mostly above normal
PPN : Season: mostly below normal, but near normal in Eire and south of England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG well above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN N below , S slightly above JUL below or well below AUG below or well below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060120
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN Eire normal elsewhere above normal JUL Wales, Midlands and SW England below elsewhere above normal AUG Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
JUN normal but N England and Scotland above normal JUL normal locally below in Eire AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal JUL normal but Scotland above AUG normal but NW Scotland below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080120
TEMP: SEASON: Above normal
JUN above normal, but GFDLCM2 model below normal in south and another model near normal.
JUL above normal but one normal and BCAR below normal
AUG above normal but GEM normal
PPN: SEASON: Near normal, locally below in SW of UK
JUN near normal
JUL near normal above/below cancel
AUG slightly favour below normal or normal



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

NASA anomaly
200



2020 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210120
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands and SW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120120
TEMP: Season: Normal
PPN: Season: Normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP::
JUL above normal AUG well above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL below or well below AUG below or well below SEP above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060120
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL Wales, Midlands and SW England below elsewhere above normal AUG Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above SEP below normal



TEMP:
JUL normal locally below in Eire AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal but Scotland above AUG normal but NW Scotland below SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere below





2020 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP:
AUG well above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below or well below SEP above normal OCT below normal



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal but NW Scotland below SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere below OCT normal locally below in SE and above in far NW





2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 160120 - limited data - Slightly above normal or normal temperatures and above normal rain especially in W and NW but hints at drier October in the south.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
SEP above normal OCT below normal NOV slightly above



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 160120
Temp: Season: mostly below normal
PPN : Season: North below normal, SouthWest UK and Eire above, SE UK normal



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere below OCT normal locally below in SE and above in far NW NOV normal locally below in Eire, N Ireland, W Walws and parts of SW England





2020 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV slightly above DEC mixed slightly above on N England elsewhere below



CanSIPS 311219
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal but locally normal in Eire
PPN :
OCT normal locally below in SE and above in far NW NOV normal locally below in Eire, N Ireland, W Walws and parts of SW England DEC normal but W Eire, S Scotland and N England below





2020 NOV DEC JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150120 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN NW below / SE above
PPN:
NOV slightly above DEC mixed slightly above on N England elsewhere below JAN below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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