SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - December 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 200118(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010118 070118 130118 190118 CFS2graphics190118), Russia 301218, CanSips 311217, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070118, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 070118, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080118, JAMSTEC 110118, UKMO seasonal, Brazil using predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110118, ECMWF Monthly 140118, BCC China 140118, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 150118, KMA 150118, International IMME 150118, Japan JMA 160118, USA - IRI 160118.
Not available India Met Office IMO, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LR.
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME comparison ENSO CFS latest

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London


SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 FEB MAR APR
Summary - 160118 - Main theme remains above normal temperatures for the season, especially in South perhaps nearer normal in the North, although the anomalies reduce later suggesting a cooler or near normal April. Season average unlikely to be affected in the S but may tip balance in N to cooler than average.
Precipitation is likely to be above normal especially in the NW and W of UK and Eire (typical affecting western exposures with westerly types). There are some signs of a drier April.
(BCC China is one of the few centres suggesting below normal temperatures in the first two month of this season and below normal rain.)



Statistical relationship (IRI) for precipuitation during La Nina suggest Eire and parts of SW UK has increased chance of drier than average weather.
IRI climate impacts for La Nina.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190118
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above or well above normal MAR N Ireland, N England and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal
PPN: Season: N and E Scotland and E of England normal, elsewhere above normal
FEB norml but above in Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland and Wales MAR N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal but Central and S Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130118
TEMP: Season: normal but in S above normal
FEB above or well above normal MAR Normal but all S England above normal APR normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in N and E Scotland SE and parts of E England.
FEB Eire, W/SW Scotland, NW England Wales and W Midlands and SW England above locally below in NE Scotland elsewhere normal MAR normal locally above in Wales, SW England W Midlands, N England Eire and N Ireland APR mostly above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070118
TEMP: Season: above normal locally normal in NE Scotland
FEB Above normal MAR normal APR normal locally above in S
PPN: Season: E Scotland and E England normal elsewhere above
FEB above normal MAR normal APR normal but below in S and E Eire, Wales and Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010118
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in N Ireland, Central and N Scotland
FEB N Scotland and N Ireland above elsewhere well above MAR normal APR normal but SW England above
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB above normal well above in W MAR normal locally above in Wales SW/W Scotlan and Eire APR normal but below in Eire



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 160118
Temp: Season above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR Eire above normal elsewhere below
PPN : Season above normal
FEB above normal but hint at below in far SW England MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere below APR above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (WSW)
FEB below normal (WSW) MAR Eire and SW UK above elsewhere below (W) APR below normal (slack W mean wind)



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 160118 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Wales and SW England below normal elsewhere no signal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150118
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: far N near normal elsewhere above high probs in SE. High probs UQ England and Wales
PPN: above normal especially in W/ Mod probs UQ NW UK.
PMSL: below in N
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: far N near normal elsewhere above high probs in S.Mod probs UQ except N and W.
PPN: above normal, in NW UK
PMSL: below to N above in far S
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: High probs above normal and UQ
PPN: above normal all western exposures and much of England. UQ in NW mod prob.
PMSL: below in N
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: England and Wales above normal (mod prob UQ), highest probs in SW, elsewhere no signal
PPN: above normal in western exposures. Mod probs UQ in western exposures
PMSL: below in N above in SW and S Eire.



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a join seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.833?×0.556?, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25?. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 150118 - .
Temp: Season: above normal
FEB well above normal MAR above normal APR Eire and Wales normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN : Season locally above normal NW Scotland elsewhere normal
FEB England,Wales and E Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR S and E below normal elsewhere normal APR normal
PMSL: Season far S slightly above N below (WSW)
FEB S above N below MAR England and Wales and S Eire above elsewhere normal APR W Eire normal elsewhere below especially to E.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland above elsewhere below
FEB below normal MAR N above elsewhere below normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
FEB Scotland below elsewhere above MAR below normal APR below normal



ECMWF - 140118 (ex weather.us)
TEMP:
FEB: above normal MAR above normal APR normal
PPN :
FEB: Above normal, well above in W Highland, NW England and W Wales, also W of Eire. MAR Normal but above in W Highland, Wales Midlands and E/SE England, below in much of Scotland and SE Eire APR Mostly below locally normal in E England




UKMO - 110118 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009) UQ upper quintile LQ lower quintile.
TEMP: Above normal 60 to 80% prob, UQ 40-55% and in SW above 55%.
PPN : Above normal. 40 to 60% prob for above normal but some Eastern areas have similar probs for below and normal. 25 to 40% prob UQ.
PSML: Below normal. 25 to 40% prob LQ.



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110118
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: below normal especially in N
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL:



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070118
TEMP:
dat from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
taken from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
FEB below normal but Scotland normal MAR near normal APR slightly above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSips - 311217
TEMP: season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal but normal in SW England and Eire APR above normal
PPN : Season: S below elsewhrere normal
FEB N Eire and N Ireland above, S/SE England below elsewhere normal MAR Eire, Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal APR Eire, Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal



Russia 301217
Temp: N below normal elsewhere no signal (similar probs A/N/B)
PPN : Scotland above normal elsewhere no signal (similar probs A/N/B)



TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080118
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN: season - N Ireland and NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150118
TEMP: season - above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN rate: season - normal but NW UK above normal
FEB Eire and all W of UK above normal elsewhere normal MAR normal APR normal MAY normal



Graphics 080118
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2018 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 160118 - Temperatures for the season are likely to be near normal, perhaps a little above in the south of the UK. However there are some hints at a colder spell perhaps most likely in April. Rainfall probably above normal across the north and west of Uk and Eire but normal or below in the south and east. A longer drier period may occur sometime later in March or in April but month to month detail lacks consistency between models.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190118
TEMP: Season: normal but above in all of S third of England
MAR N Ireland, N England and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal MAY Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales, W Midlands N England and S Scotland.
MAR N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal but Central and S Scotland above MAY below normal normal but normal in Midlands, N England and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130118
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR Normal but all S England above normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above NW England and E Eire
MAR normal locally above in Wales, SW England W Midlands, N England Eire and N Ireland APR mostly above normal MAY normal but below in SW England and S Midlands/M4 corridor

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070118
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SW Uk
MAR normal APR normal locally above in S MAY above normal locally normal NE England J
PPN: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal but below in S and E Eire, Wales and Cornwall MAY but below in Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010118
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal but SW England above MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAR normal locally above in Wales SW/W Scotlan and Eire APR normal but below in Eire MAY normal but above in Midlands and SE England, NE England and E Scotland



USA - IRI - 160118
Temp: no signal
PPN : N England and E Scotland above, Wales and SW England below elsewhere no signal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150118
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal especially in S. Mod probs UQ.
PPN: NW Scotland above normal
PMSL: England and Wales above normal below normal to N of Scotland
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal in S.
PPN: mostly below normal
PMSL: above normal
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal. High probs UQ.
PPN: above normal Wales, NW England, N and W Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland
PMSL: below normal NW Scotland above normal of N France
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: far S/SW England above normal, below normal just to N of Scotland, mostly no signal.
PPN: England and central Eire below. W and far N Scotland above
PMSL: England and Wales above normal below normal to N of Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above
MAR N above elsewhere below normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal APR below normal MAY N Scotland above elsewhere below normal



ECMWF - 140118 (ex weather.us)
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal locally above in Eire
PPN :
MAR Normal but above in W Highland, Wales Midlands and E/SE England, below in much of Scotland and SE Eire APR Mostly below locally normal in E England MAY below normal




UKMO - 110118
TEMP: Above normal 60 to 80% prob, UQ 40-55% but lower in Midlands, Eire and N Scotland.
PPN : Above normal more likely chance of well above.
PSML: Below normal in N above in S but not strong probs



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 110118
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: N Scotland below, Eire and N Ireland above eslewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070118
TEMP:
dat from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
taken from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
MAR near normal APR slightly above normal MAY above normal



CanSips - 311217
TEMP: season: above normal
MAR above normal but normal in SW England and Eire APR above normal MAY above normal but normal in Eire, N ireland and NW Scotland
PPN : season: S of UK beklow elsewhere normal
MAR Eire, Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal APR Eire, Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal MAY NW above S/SE below elsewhere normal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080118
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN: season - NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150118
TEMP: season - above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal but E of UK normal
PPN rate: season - normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal



Graphics 080118
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2018 APR MAY JUN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190118
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S Scotland
APR normal but Central and S Scotland above MAY below normal normal but normal in Midlands, N England and E Scotland JUN mostly above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130118
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal locally above i9n NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire, W and S Scotland Wales and W Midlands
APR mostly above normal MAY normal but below in SW England and S Midlands/M4 corridor JUN normal but above in Eire, N Ireland most of Scotland Wales Midlands and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070118
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in NE England
APR normal locally above in S MAY above normal locally normal NE England JUN above normal locally normal in NE England
PPN: Season: normal
APR normal but below in S and E Eire, Wales and Cornwall MAY but below in Scotland JUN NE England below, above in NW Scotland N Ireland, Eire, Wales and SW England elsewhere normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010118
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal but SW England above MAY normal JUN normal locally above in SE England and N half Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland
APR normal but below in Eire MAY normal but above in Midlands andSE England, NE England and E Scotland JUN normal but above in W Midlands, Wales Eire and all W half of Scotland



USA - IRI - 160118
Temp: no signal
PPN : S Eire, Wales England and E Scotland above, elsewhere no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR below normal MAY N Scotland above elsewhere below normal JUN below normal



ECMWF - 140118 (ex weather.us)
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal locally above in Eire JUN England (except the N), Wales and SE Eire above elsewhere normal
PPN :
APR Mostly below locally normal in E England MAY below normal JUN Eire, N Ireland and E Scotland below NW Midlands and E England above elsewhere normal




UKMO - 110118
TEMP: Above normal 60 to 80% prob, UQ 40-55% but loer probs in Midlands, Wales and N Scotland.
PPN : Above normal most likely.
PSML: Below normal in N elsewhere non strong probs



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070118
TEMP:
dat from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN near normal in S elsewhere above
PPN :
taken from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
APR slightly above normal MAY above normal JUN Englamnd normal elsewhere above



CanSips - 311217
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal but normal in Eire, N ireland and NW Scotland JUN above normal
PPN :
APR Eire, Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal MAY NW above S/SE below elsewhere normal JUN below normal





2018 MAY JUN JUL


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190118
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N half of Scotland
MAY Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUL N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Midlands and S Scotland
MAY below normal normal but normal in Midlands, N England and E Scotland JUN mostly above normal JUL normal but above in Midlands, Wales, W Eire and SW and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130118
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal locally above i9n NW Scotland JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Eire, W Scotland and upland Wales
MAY normal but below in SW England and S Midlands/M4 corridor JUN normal but above in Eire, N Ireland most of Scotland Wales Midlands and SW England JUL normal but above in SW England, Wales, W Scotland and parts of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070118
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in Scotland and SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in N Wales and NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010118
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SE England
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE England and NE Scotland



USA - IRI - 160118
Temp: no signal
PPN : Eire, N Ireland, Wales, SW and W Midlands England, SW and W Scotland above, elsewhere no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL Eire and N Scotland above normal elsewhere below
PPN:
MAY N Scotland above elsewhere below normal JUN below normal JUL N Scotland below normal elsewhere above



ECMWF - 140118 (ex weather.us)
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in Eire JUN England (except the N), Wales and SE Eire above elsewhere normal JUL normal but E Scotland and most of England and Wales above normal
PPN :
MAY below normal JUN Eire, N Ireland and E Scotland below NW Midlands and E England above elsewhere normal JUL Wales, NW Scotland NW and W Eire above, Below in S England, N England and much of Scotland elsewhere normal.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070118
TEMP:
dat from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
MAY above normal JUN near normal in S elsewhere above JUL above normal
PPN :
taken from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
MAY above normal JUN England normal elsewhere above JUL S below normal elsewhere normal A



CanSips - 311217
TEMP:
MAY above normal but normal in Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY NW above S/SE below elsewhere normal JUN below normal JUL normal but N England, N Irelan and Scotland above





2018 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 160118 - Temperatures probably near or only slightly above normal for the season, with hints at June in the SE and August more widely seeing best chance of above average temepratures. Rainfall N and W most likely above normal S and SE normal or perhaps below normal rainfall, may extend to SW England too although Aigust rainfall in the S may be above average. (Monthly detail often poor)



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands, N/NW England, SW and W Scotland, N Ireland and N and W Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in parts of Wales, W and S Scotland and NW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland, Wales, SW and W Midlands England also central Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland and NE England slightly below elsewhere slightly above
JUN above normal JUL Eire and N Scotland above normal elsewhere below AUG below normal
PPN: Season: slightly above but Wales and SW England slightly below
JUN below normal JUL N Scotland below normal elsewhere above AUG Eire, Wales and Midlands slightly below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070118
TEMP:
dat from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
JUN near normal in S elsewhere above JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
taken from NMME site as NASA site too small scale.
JUN Englamnd normal elsewhere above JUL S below normal elsewhere normal AUG normal but SW above



CanSips - 311217
TEMP: season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : season: SE England below elsewhere normal
JUN below normal JUL normal but N England, N Ireland and Scotland above AUG normal





Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080118
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN: season - NW Scotland above normal, locally below in S Eire and central S England elsewhere normal



Graphics 080118
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P



2018 JUL AUG SEP


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire and Cornwall, locally above in W Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP:
JUL Eire and N Scotland above normal elsewhere below AUG below normal SEP N and W above S and E below
PPN:
JUN below normal JUL N Scotland below normal elsewhere above AUG Eire, Wales and Midlands slightly below elsewhere above SEP mostly above normal



CanSips - 311217
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal but N England, N Irelan and Scotland above AUG normal SEP England and Wales above elsewhere normal





2018 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP:
AUG below normal SEP N and W above S and E below OCT N and W above S and E below
PPN:
AUG Eire, Wales and Midlands slightly below elsewhere above SEP mostly above normal OCT N below normal elsewhere slightly above



CanSips - 311217
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal SEP England and Wales above elsewhere normal OCT N Scotland below elsewhere normal





2018 SEP OCT NOV


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above
SEP N and W above S and E below OCT N and W above S and E below NOV above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
SEP mostly above normal OCT N below normal elsewhere slightly above NOV above normal



CanSips - 311217
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP England and Wales above elsewhere normal OCT N Scotland below elsewhere normal NOV far NW Scotland above S Scotland, SE Eire, England and Wales below eksewhere normal





2018 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP:
OCT N and W above S and E below NOV above normal DEC S below elsewhere above
PPN:
OCT N below normal elsewhere slightly above NOV above normal DEC below normal



CanSips - 311217
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT N Scotland below elsewhere normal NOV far NW Scotland above S Scotland, SE Eire, England and Wales below eksewhere normal DEC S and E normal elsewhere above





2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140118 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC S below elsewhere above JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV above normal DEC below normal JAN below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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