SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - June 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 150718(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), International IMME, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.

Data sources available on date: USA - USA USA - NCEP CFS2 (010718 080718 140718), Russia 300618, CanSips 300618, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070718, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 090718, BCC China 100718, ECMWF monthly 120718, UKMO seasonal 120718, Japan JMA 150718.
Data received after summary written.
NOT AVAILABLE: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO


Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London


SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 AUG SEP OCT

Summary - .





USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140718
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal
AUG normal but SW England and Scotland above SEP normal but Eire above and SE England below OCT normal but Eire and N Ireland below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080718
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal but all S England above SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: N and E Scotland, N/NE England, Dorset/Hampshire normal elsewhere below normal
AUG normal but below central Eire Wales Midlands and SE England SEP above normal but normal in NE Scotland NE England and NE Midlands OCT normal but below in SW England Wales N Ireland and Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010718
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal but SW Englnd and Wales above normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal
AUG normal locally below in N Wales E Scotland and SE England but above in Eire SEP Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N England below, E Anglia above elsewhere normal OCT normal locally above in SE Midlands/London and W Scotland



Japan JMA (23 March 2017 - 50 member ensemble accumulated 50 members will be composed of the set of 24 members (Tuesday) and the set of 26 members (Wednesday) at 55km resolution 100 levels 0.01hPa top). Hindcast 1981-2010
JMA - 150718
Temp: Season above normal
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN : Season below normal but far SW England above
AUG below normal SEP S Eire, England and Wales above normal elsewhere below OCT above normal
PMSL: Season above normal but far S England below (W)
AUG above normal (W) SEP above normal (W) OCT below normal (W)



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes -140718
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal but above in Eire
PMSL: above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: N near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : normal but Eire, N Ireland and SW England above normal



UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 120718 based on tercile
TEMP: above normal but S may be normal
PPN : S normal elsewhere above
PSML: N above S below elsewher normal


ECMWF monthly - 120718 -
TEMP:
AUG NW thirid UK and Eire normal elswewhere above SEP normal but Wales, SW England and Midlands/S England above OCT normal but England and Wales above
PPN
AUG Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below elsewhere above SEP W Scotland and W Eire below elsewhere above OCT NW Scotland above elsewher below
PSML AUG SEP OCT NOV



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN::
AUG below normal but above in SW UK SEP below normal but above in far N OCT below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070718
TEMP:
AUG below normal but SW above SEP normal locally above in SW and below in N OCT N below S above
PPN :
AUG below in N and above in S SEP below normal OCT NW above SE below N



Russia 300618
Temp: Mostly above normal (especially in W). Note northern N Atlantic remaining below normal
PPN : no signal but NE Scotland above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
AUG normal but England Wales and SE Eire above normal SEP normal b ut SE half of England above OCT normal in Eire, N Ireland N half Scotland SW Wales and SW England
PPN :
AUG normal but below in SE England SEP normal locally above in N Ireland and W Scotland OCT normal locally above in N Ireland and S England



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090718
TEMP: season - N Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN rate: season - N normal elsewhere below




NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly NOT AVAILABLE 080618
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5


ECMWF monthly 120718
200




2018 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140718
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV S and SE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in S of England (not SW)
SEP normal but Eire above and SE England below OCT normal but Eire and N Ireland below NOV normal but S England below and SW Eire and NW Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080718
TEMP: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal, well above in Scotland
PPN: Season: all S England below normnal elsewhere normal
SEP above normal but normal in NE Scotland NE England and NE Midlands OCT normal but below in SW England Wales N Ireland and Eire NOV S/SE England below above in Eire S and W Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010718
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N England below, E Anglia above elsewhere normal OCT normal locally above in SE Midlands/London and W Scotland NOV normal but above in Eire W and S Scotland and NW England



JAMSTEC 140718
Temp: Season Eire N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere above
PPN : Season normal or below




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 120718 based on tercile
TEMP: above normal but S may be normal
PPN : below normal but S may be normal
PSML: above normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN::
SEP below normal but above in far N OCT below normal NOV above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070718
TEMP:
SEP normal locally above in SW and below in N OCT N below S above NOV below
PPN :
SEP below normal OCT NW above SE below NOV below normal



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
SEP normal but SE half of England above OCT normal in Eire, N Ireland N half Scotland SW Wales and SW England NOV normal
PPN :
SEP normal locally above in N Ireland and W Scotland OCT normal locally above in N Ireland and S England NOV mostly above normal but SW England and N England/S Scotland normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090718
TEMP: season - normal
PPN rate: season - N above S below elsewhere normal



NMME Graphics

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly 120718
200



2018 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140718
TEMP::
OCT normal NOV S and SE England normal elsewhere above normal DEC Eire N Ireland SE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN:
OCT normal but Eire and N Ireland below NOV normal but S England below and SW Eire and NW Scotland above DEC above normal


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080718
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV above normal, well above in Scotland DEC normal
PPN:
OCT normal but below in SW England Wales N Ireland and Eire NOV S/SE England below above in Eire S and W Scotland elsewhere normal DEC normal but above in N Ireland, Cornwall, Midlands and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010718
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV above normal DEC normal
PPN:
OCT normal locally above in SE Midlands/London and W Scotland NOV normal but above in Eire W and S Scotland and NW England DEC normal but below in E Scotland and Devon




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 120718 based on tercile
TEMP: above normal but SW may be normal
PPN : uncertain chance of below normal
PSML: normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC mostly below normal
PPN::
OCT below normal NOV above normal DEC above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070718
TEMP:
OCT N below S above NOV below DEC normal or below
PPN :
OCT NW above SE below NOV below normal DEC above normal



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
OCT normal in Eire, N Ireland N half Scotland SW Wales and SW England NOV normal DEC Scotland NW Englnd N Ireland Eire and N Wales below normal elsewhere normal
PPN :
OCT normal locally above in N Ireland and S England NOV mostly above normal but SW England and N England/S Scotland normal DEC England and Wales above normal W Eire below normal elsewhere normal




2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140718
TEMP:
NOV S and SE England normal elsewhere above normal DEC Eire N Ireland SE England normal elsewhere above normal JAN above and in S half of UK and Eire well above normal
PPN:
NOV normal but S England below and SW Eire and NW Scotland above DEC above normal JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080718
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, SW Central and NW Scotland, NW England and Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010718
TEMP: Season: normal but above in parts of Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in N Ireland and Eire



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC mostly below normal JAN above normal
PPN::
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN N Scotland above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070718
TEMP:
NOV below DEC normal or below JAN normal
PPN :
NOV below normal DEC above normal JAN Scotland above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
NOV normal DEC Scotland NW Englnd N Ireland Eire and N Wales below normal elsewhere normal JAN normal but below in Eire, N Ireland Wales and parts of SW England
PPN :
NOV mostly above normal but SW England and N England/S Scotland normal DEC England and Wales above normal W Eire below normal elsewhere normal JAN mostly above normal




2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - .




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140718
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland SE Eire Wales and England
PPN: Season: SE Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080718
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in Midlands NE England and NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010718
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal



JAMSTEC 140718
Temp: Season below normal
PPN : Season normal but below in S England and W Scotland above in NE Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
DEC mostly below normal JAN above normal FEB above normal but S near normal
PPN::
DEC above normal JAN N Scotland above elsewhere below FEB below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070718
TEMP:
DEC normal or below JAN normal FEB below in N above in S
PPN :
DEC above normal JAN Scotland above elsewhere below FEB Scotland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
DEC Scotland NW Englnd N Ireland Eire and N Wales below normal elsewhere normal JAN normal but below in Eire, N Ireland Wales and parts of SW England FEB near normal
PPN :
DEC England and Wales above normal W Eire below normal elsewhere normal JAN mostly above normal FEB mostly below normal but S England normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090718
TEMP: season - normal
PPN rate: season - Eire and N UK normal elsewhere above normal



NMME Graphics

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200





2019 JAN FEB MAR




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140718
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: E UK normal elsewhere above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal but S near normal MAR above normal
PPN::
JAN N Scotland above elsewhere below FEB below normal MAR England and Wales below normal elsewhere above



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
JAN normal but below in Eire, N Ireland Wales and parts of SW England FEB near normal MAR near normal but Scotland above
PPN :
JAN mostly above normal FEB mostly below normal but S England normal MAR normal A



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070718
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB below in N above in S MAR normal but above in W
PPN :
JAN Scotland above elsewhere below FEB Scotland below elsewhere above MAR mostly above locally below in SW





2019 FEB MAR APR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal but S near normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN::
FEB below normal MAR England and Wales below normal elsewhere above APR above normal



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
FEB near normal MAR near normal but Scotland above APR mostly below normal
PPN :
FEB mostly below normal but S England normal MAR normal APR normal locally below in NW Scotland





2019 MAR APR MAY



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal J
PPN::
MAR England and Wales below normal elsewhere above APR above normal MAY NE Scotland above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
MAR near normal but Scotland above APR mostly below normal MAY normal but above in N Ireland N England and Scotland
PPN :
MAR normal APR normal locally below in NW Scotland MAY normal locally above in SE England





2019 APR MAY JUN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN::
APR above normal MAY NE Scotland above elsewhere below JUN below normal but above in SW



CanSIPS 300618
TEMP:
APR mostly below normal MAY normal but above in N Ireland N England and Scotland JUN normal
PPN :
APR normal locally below in NW Scotland MAY normal locally above in SE England JUN normal but above in Eire and W of N Ireland




2019 MAY JUN JUL



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100718 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN::
MAY NE Scotland above elsewhere below JUN below normal but above in SW JUL below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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