SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - June 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 020720 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Russia, CanSips, USA NASA GMAO GSFC, Japan JMA, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), NMME and CFS2 graphics, ECMWF monthly, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), BCC China, UKMO seasonal, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble.

Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010720, ) Temperature graphics (010720), E3 graphics (010720), Russia 290620, CanSips 300620
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Toulouse, ECMWF, Tokyo 150620, CPTEC 160620, WMO multi ensemble 160620, .

International IMME is available again from NCEP

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



AUG SEP OCT

Summary -



There seems to be an cold bias in the North Sea in CFS which was incorrect last year. NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010720
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
AUG NW Scotland above, N Wales, Midlands and SE below elsewhere normal SEP normal locally below in N Ireland W Eire and NW Scotland



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
AUG most of England and Wales above elsewhere normal SEP Ireland and W Scotland normal elsewhere above OCT normal but below in Wales, Midlands and SE England
PPN :
AUG normal but below in NW Ireland, NW Scotland and SE England SEP above normal OCT mostly below normal



Russia
Temp: W Eire below normal elsewhere or no signal locally normal in NE Scotland
PPN : no signal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8






2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010720
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally below in N Ireland W Eire and NW Scotland OCT normal but above in Scotland and W Eire NOV normal locally below in NW Scotland and Cornwall



CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
SEP Ireland and W Scotland normal elsewhere above OCT normal but below in Wales, Midlands and SE England NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP above normal OCT mostly below normal NOV normal but NW above and S below



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN17 TN12 TN13

TN18 TN15 TN16



2020 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010720
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV above normal DEC S/SW England normal elsewhere normal
PPN:
OCT normal but above in Scotland and W Eire NOV normal locally below in NW Scotland and Cornwall DEC ormal locally below in far NW Scotland and Cornwall



CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
OCT normal but below in Wales, Midlands and SE England NOV above normal DEC normal locally above in N Scotland l
PPN :
OCT mostly below normal NOV normal but NW above and S below DEC mostly normal locally below in S Scotland, NW England and Wales.





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010720
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal



CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal locally above in N Scotland JAN mostly below normalbr> PPN :
NOV normal but NW above and S below DEC mostly normal locally below in S Scotland, NW England and Wales. JAN normal locally above in Ireland and Cornwall





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary -



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010720
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland



CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
DEC normal locally above in N Scotland JAN mostly below normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC mostly normal locally below in S Scotland, NW England and Wales. JAN normal locally above in Ireland and Cornwall FEB normal but SW Eire and SW UK below







2021 JAN FEB MAR


CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
JAN mostly below normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN normal locally above in Ireland and Cornwall FEB normal but SW Eire and SW UK below MAR above normal





2021 FEB MAR APR


CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR mostly normal
PPN :
FEB normal but SW Eire and SW UK below MAR above normal APR below normal but SE England normal





2021 MAR APR MAY



Summary -

CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR mostly normal MAY England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
MAR above normal APR below normal but SE England normal MAY normal locally below in NE Eire, N ireland Wales NW England and much of Scotland






2021 APR MAY JUN


CanSIPS - 300620
TEMP:
APR mostly normal MAY England and Wales above elsewhere normal JUN mostly above normal
PPN :
APR below normal but SE England normal MAY normal locally below in NE Eire, N ireland Wales NW England and much of Scotland JUN normal locally below in N Ireland and W Scotland





2021 MAY JUN JUL





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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