SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

Follow @T2mike
Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - August 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 160917(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4, CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4, UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO plot when available. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME comparison UKMO Tropical N Atlantic

ENSO CFS latest


Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (310817), International IMME, UKMO Contingency, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF, KMA, Korea APCC, India Met Office IMO. Not available: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF may be added after end of month. India Met Office IMO.


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010917 070917 130917), CanSips 010917, Russia (070917), US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080917, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080917, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090917, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110917, UKMO seasonal 140917, Japan JMA 140917, JAMSEC 140917, BCC China140917, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 150917, USA - IRI 150917.
Data received after summary written.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th



2017 OCT NOV DEC


Summary -

NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130917
TEMP: Season: N Ireland, Scotland and N England above elsewhere normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
OCT normal but Eire and NE England below NOV normal but NW Scotland and SW England above


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070917
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
OCT normal NOV normal but Scotland above DEC above but midlands and SE England well above (1 to 2C anom)
PPN: Season: S and SW England, Wales, NW England, SW Scotland and SW Eie above elsewhere normal
OCT normal locally below in S Scotland and W Eire NOV normal locally above in S/SE England SW Eire and W Scotland DEC above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310817
TEMP: Season: Scotland and N England above normal elsewhere normal
OCT normal NOV normal but N Scotland above DEC above but Eire, England and Wales well above (1 to 2C anom)
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Bristol Channel area
OCT normal locally below in , SW Eire, E Wales and E England NOV Scotland below normal elsewhere normal DEC above normal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 150917 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : E Anglia and N Scotlasnd below elsewhere no signal


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150917
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Eire normal elsewhere above, low prob locally UQ
PPN: normal but perhaps below in S Eire
PMSL: normal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Normal but E half of England and Scotland above normal
PPN: normal but chance of below in S Eire and SW UK
PMSL: Normal hint of above in NW (could be less lows?)
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal UT and UQ highest probs in S and E UQ
PPN: normal hine above in N and below in S/SW
PMSL: normal or hint of below
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: normal or above
PPN: Below normal UQ in N and W (includes Eire)
PMSL: abve normal UT and UQ



UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 140917
TEMP: Above normal perhaps similar probs for normal in S but also high probs of UQ (upper quintile) in S Eire and S UK
PPN : Above or well above, slightly enhanced probs for UQ all areas
PSML: Main signal for below normal but slightly enhanced probs LQ (lower quintile) in S and UQ in N.


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140917 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
OCT Below normal but above in N Scotland NOV above normal DEC below normal
PPN: Season: Below in N elsewhere above
OCT below normal NOV below normal DEC N below elsewhere above normal



Japan JMA (23 March 2017 - 50 member ensemble accumulated 50 members will be composed of the set of 24 members (Tuesday) and the set of 26 members (Wednesday) at 55km resolution 100 levels 0.01hPa top). Hindcast 1981-2010
Japan JMA 140917 - data 080917
Temp: Season above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season England and Wales above normnal elsewhere below
OCT below normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PMSL: Season above normal
OCT above normal NOV below normal DEC slightly above normal



TEMP: Season Above normal
OCT Above normal NOV Above normal DEC Above normal
PPN : Season normal locally below in N Scotland and N of N Ireland
OCT normal but above in SW NOV central England and Wales normal elsewhere below DEC normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110917
Temp: Above normal in N elsewhere normal
PPN : Normal in SW and NE elsewhere above normal
PMSL: Below in SW elsewhere above
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: Normal
PPN : NW above elsewhere normal perhap0s below in far SW



Russia 070917
Temp: near normal
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below except far NW and far SE above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 010917
TEMP: above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : normal but above in NW Scotland N and W Eire and N Ireland
OCT above normal NOV normal but below in Wales and S Eire DEC normal but above in NW Scotland and NW Eire but below in Cornwall Wales N England and S Scotland



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080917
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal (0.5 to 1C anom)

PPN: season - near normal but hint of above in N Scotland and below in far SW




Graphics 080917
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa mean CFS2 200hPa height and height anomaly. Data 1 deg grib

200




2017 NOV DEC 2018 JAN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130917
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN well above normal
PPN: Season: E Scotland and E England normal elsewhere above
NOV normal but NW Scotland and SW England above DEC normal but NW Scotland above and S Eire below JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070917
TEMP: Season: above normal locally well above in central S England
NOV normal but Scotland above DEC above but midlands and SE England well above (1 to 2C anom) JAN well above normal
PPN: Season: above normnal
NOV normal locally above in S/SE England SW Eire and W Scotland DEC above normal JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310817
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV normal but N Scotland above DEC above but Eire, England and Wales well above (1 to 2C anom) JAN above normal but Midlands and E England well above
PPN: Season: normal but England and Wales above normal
NOV Scotland below normal elsewhere normal DEC above normal JAN Eire and N Wales normal elsewhere above



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150917
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal UT (not UQ). Highest probs SW UK.
PPN: normal
PMSL: normal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: normal but above normal UT in S of UK and S Eire
PPN: normal
PMSL: normal chance of below in N
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal UT and UQ
PPN: above normal
PMSL: below normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Normal or above normal
PPN: Far NW above normal elsewhere below but S of England normal
PMSL: Normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140917 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC below normal JAN above normal F
PPN: Season: Below in N elsewhere above
NOV below normal DEC N below elsewhere above normal JAN S below N above




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 140917
TEMP: Above normal most likely. Over 40% prob UQ S of England
PPN : Highest probs are for above normal Enhanced 25-40% probs for UQ
PSML: Below normal most likely


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090917
TEMP: Season above normal
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal JAN Above normal
PPN : Season normal
NOV central England and Wales normal elsewhere below DEC normal JAN SE England normal elsewhere above


CanSIPS - 010917
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal but SW England and Eire normal
PPN :
NOV normal but below in Wales and S Eire DEC normal but above in NW Scotland and NW Eire but below in Cornwall Wales N England and S Scotland JAN normal





Winter 2017 DEC 2018 JAN FEB
Summary - .


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130917
TEMP: Season: above normal but well above in England and Wales
DEC above normal JAN well above normal FEB well above normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
DEC normal but NW Scotland above and S Eire below JAN above normal FEB above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070917
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland above normal elsewhere well above normal
DEC above but midlands and SE England well above (1 to 2C anom) JAN well above normal FEB well above normal but W Eire above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310817
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above but Eire, England and Wales well above (1 to 2C anom) JAN above normal but Midlands and E England well above FEB Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland, N Eire and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above
DEC above normal JAN Eire and N Wales normal elsewhere above FEB normal locally below in NW Scotland but above in S Eire SW England N England and S Scotland



USA - IRI - 150917 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: N Scotland, Wales and NW England above elsewhere no signal
PPN : most area above normal locally below in NE Englnd /SE Scotland


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150917
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal UT enhanced probs UQ except N Scotland
PPN: SE Eire, England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL: Below normal in N
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Abve normal especially in S and E UK also Eire and UQ in S of UK.
PPN: no0rmal but S of England and Wales above normal UT
PMSL: normal perhaps above in NE
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal UT and UQ
PPN: above normal UT and UQ
PMSL: below normal perhaps normal in S
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: normal locally above in parts of W Wales W UK and NE England
PPN: ABove normal in SW and NW but below in E England
PMSL: normal but chance of below to N of UK and above across SW UK and S Eire


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140917 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland and Eire below elsewhere above
DEC below normal JAN above normal FEB Scotland, N Irelnd and Eire below elsewhere above
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC N below elsewhere above normal JAN S below N above FEB S/SW below elsewhere above




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 140917
TEMP: Above or well above normal probs for UQ 25 to 40% in Scotland and N Ireland elsewhere 40 to 55%
PPN : Above or well above normal. Probs for UQ 25 to 40% in E England, Scotland, Eire and N Ireland elsewhere 40 to 55%br> PSML: Below or well below normal especially in the N


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 140917
Temp: Season: Below normal but Scotland slightly above normal
PPN : Season: SE UK normal elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090917
TEMP: Season above normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal
PPN : Season above normal
DEC normal JAN SE England normal elsewhere above FEB Above normal


CanSIPS - 010917
TEMP: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal but SW England and Eire normal FEB above normal but SW Eire and S England normal
PPN : Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere normal
DEC normal but above in NW Scotland and NW Eire but below in Cornwall Wales N England and S Scotland JAN normal FEB below normal but N Scotland normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080917
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal (0.5 to 1C)

PPN: season - Above normal chance of near normal in S



Graphics 080917
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


2018 JAN FEB MAR


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130917
TEMP: Season: above normal well above in S
JAN well above normal FEB well above normal MAR Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR below or well below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070917
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland above normal elsewhere well above normal
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310817
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire and Cornwall



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140917 -
TEMP: Season:
JAN above normal FEB Scotland, N Irelnd and Eire below elsewhere above MAR above normal A
PPN: Season:
JAN S below N above FEB S/SW below elsewhere above MAR above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090917
TEMP: Season above normal
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal MAR S normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season normal or below
JAN SE England normal elsewhere above FEB Above normal MAR below normal A


CanSIPS - 010917
TEMP:
JAN above normal but SW England and Eire normal FEB above normal but SW Eire and S England normal MAR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN :
JAN normal FEB below normal but N Scotland normal MAR England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal





2018 FEB MAR APR


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130917
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070917
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland above normal elsewhere well above normal
PPN: Season: E UK normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310817
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140917 -
TEMP: Season:
FEB Scotland, N Irelnd and Eire below elsewhere above MAR above normal APR Scotland above normal elsewhere belo
PPN: Season:
FEB S/SW below elsewhere above MAR above APR below



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 140917
Temp: Season: Eire and N Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season: below normal but N Scotland and Eire normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090917
TEMP: Season
FEB Above normal MAR S normal elsewhere above APR Above normal
PPN : Season
FEB Above norma MAR below normal APR N normal elsewhere above


CanSIPS - 010917
TEMP:
FEB above normal but SW Eire and S England normal MAR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB below normal but N Scotland normal MAR England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal APR normal but above in S and below in N





2018 MAR APR MAY


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130917
TEMP: Season: Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140917 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR Scotland above normal elsewhere below MAY above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
MAR above APR below MAY mixed above/below



CanSIPS - 010917
TEMP: above normal
MAR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Normal but S Eire and S Uk below
MAR England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal APR normal but above in S and below in N MAY normal but below in Eire, N Ireland, SW Scotland, NW England , Wales and SW England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090917
TEMP: Season
MAR S normal elsewhere above APR Above normal MAY Above normal
PPN : Season
MAR below normal APR N normal elsewhere above MAY N Scotland and N England below elsewhere normal


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080917
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal (0.5 to 1C)

PPN: season - near normal chance of above in N