SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - October 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 111119(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Japan JMA, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), BCC China, UKMO seasonal, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC.
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble. International IMME not available.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011119 091119 ) Temperature graphics (081119) E3 graphics (081119), Russia 011119, CanSips 301019, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 061119, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 081119, NMME and CFS2 graphics 081119. EFFFIS ECMWF monthly 111119

Graphics via WMO: BoM, CMC, Moscow, DWD, 111119.
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary - -



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091119
TEMP: Season: above normal, well above in S
DEC above normal, well above in S JAN above normal, well above in S FEB well above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal but NE Scotland normal FEB S and E UK normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011119
TEMP: Season: above or well above normal (above 1C anomaly)
DEC above normal JAN well above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland and NE England normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal but NE Scotland normal FEB above normal but NE Scotland, S and SE England normal



ECMWF - monthly - 111119 - EFFIS
TEMP:
DEC normal but SE England above JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN:
DEC above normal but Scotland below JAN above normal FEB normal but Scotland above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 061119
TEMP:
DEC mostly above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC but normal or nelow in NW Scotland and SE England JAN above normal FEB above normal



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP: Season : above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN : Season : above normal
DEC normal but above in S of England, S Wales and Scotland JAN above normal FEB normal



Russia 011119
Temp: N Scotland and W Eire below, SW UK normal but elsewhere no signal
PPN : central England normal elsewhere no signal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091119
TEMP: season : above normal (all models)
PPN rate: season : above normal (all models in at least parts of UK and Eire.)




CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN6

NASA anomaly .
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200

DWD monthly
200



2020 JAN FEB MAR




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091119
TEMP:
JAN above normal, well above in S FEB well above normal MAR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: l
JAN above normal but NE Scotland normal FEB S and E UK normal elsewhere above MAR normal locally below in SW England and SW Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011119
TEMP:
JAN well above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN:
JAN above normal but NE Scotland normal FEB above normal but NE Scotland, S and SE England normal MAR above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 061119
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR normal
PPN : Season
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR NW above SE below



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB normal MAR S Uk and SW Eire below elsewhere normal





2020 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091119
TEMP:
FEB well above normal MAR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal APR above normal, well above in S
PPN:
FEB S and E UK normal elsewhere above MAR normal locally below in SW England and SW Wales APR normnal but above in Eire, N Ireland and SW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011119
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal APR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN:
FEB above normal but NE Scotland, S and SE England normal MAR above normal APR above normal but N half of Scotland normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 061119
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB above normal MAR NW above SE below APR below normal



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB normal MAR S Uk and SW Eire below elsewhere normal APR normal but N above





2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091119
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but SW Eire above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011119
TEMP: Season: above normal but W Eire normal
PPN: Season: bove normal but NE Scotland normal



ECMWF - monthly - 111119 - EFFIS
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal MAY normal
PPN:
MAR above normal but Eire uncertain/normal APR SW England above, NW Eire N Ireland Scotland N England below elsewhere uncertain MAY above normal but much of the S and also N Scotland uncertain/normal.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 061119
TEMP:
MAR normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR NW above SE below APR below normal MAY mostly below normal



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY Eire and S of UK normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
MAR S Uk and SW Eire below elsewhere normal APR normal but N above MAY normal but NW Eire below and above in NE Scotland and N Midlands



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091119
TEMP: season : above normal, locally near normal in W Eire. All models but NCAR cooler in west.
PPN rate: above normal by slight majority (3 above normal 2 below normal 2 normal)



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN6

NASA anomaly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly and mean CFS2+NCAR 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly
200



2020 APR MAY JUN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091119
TEMP: Season: above normal but well above in Scotland and S of England
PPN: Season: normal but below normal in N Scotland and E of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011119
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 061119
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN mostly above normal
PPN :
APR below normal MAY mostly below normal JUN far N above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY Eire and S of UK normal elsewhere above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR normal but N above MAY normal but NW Eire below and above in NE Scotland and N Midlands JUN normal locally below in NW





2020 MAY JUN JUL


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 061119
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN mostly above normal JUL mostly above normal
PPN :
MAY mostly below normal JUN far N above elsewhere below JUL N and E above, Eire Wales S and W England below



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
MAY Eire and S of UK normal elsewhere above normal JUN above normal JUL normal
PPN :
MAY normal but NW Eire below and above in NE Scotland and N Midlands JUN normal locally below in NW JUL normal





2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - -



CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL normal AUG Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland normal otherwise above normal
PPN :
JUN normal locally below in NW JUL normal AUG Wales and S two thirds of England below elsewhere normal





2020 JUL AUG SEP


CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland normal otherwise above normal SEP normal but SE England above
PPN :
JUL normal AUG Wales and S two thirds of England below elsewhere normal SEP normal locally below in N and W





2020 AUG SEP OCT


CanSIPS 301019
TEMP:
AUG Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland normal otherwise above normal SEP normal but SE England above OCT normal
PPN :
AUG Wales and S two thirds of England below elsewhere normal SEP normal locally below in N and W OCT below normal





2020 SEP OCT NOV






NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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