SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - March 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 240418(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010418, 070418, 130418, 170418, 220418), Russia 310318, CanSips 310318, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090418, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 090418, NMME and CFS2 graphics 090418, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110418, UKMO seasonal 110418, BCC China 110418, JAMSTEC 110418, ECMWF monthly 120418, KMA 140218, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 150418, USA - IRI 170418, Japan JMA 170418, International IMME 170418 South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF 190418
India Met Office IMO not available. Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO intermodel comparison

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London


SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 MAY JUN JUL

Summary 170418
Temperature:The main indication is for near normal temeprature, perhaps starting below normal especially across the S/SW of Eire and SW of UK due to coler than normal sea temperatures. Some models also indicate parts of NE England/SE Scotland at risk from colder that normal May due to colder N Sea temnperatures. Hints at June being above normal. Strongest signal for above normal is in NW Scotland and Midlands England.
Rainfall: A mixed signal. Mainly a signal for near normal rainfall for the season but also for the NW to be above normal. For models that provided monthly output the South is perhaps more likely to be drier in June than in July but it is not clear cut. Several models suggest the N and perhaps the far S could see a wetter period especially in May and July.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
MAY normal JUN normal but above in NW Eire, N ireland and northern two thirds of Scotland JUL normal but above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally above around London area but below in NW Wales N and NW England S and E Scotland and far SW Eire.
MAY E Scotland and E England normal elsewhere below normal JUN normal but above in S Midlands and below in Cornwall NW Wales and NE Scotland JUL normal but above in S and SE England and Midlands plus NW Scotland and NW Eire but below in N and NE England S and E Scotland d

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
MAY normal JUN normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Scotland Wales and W Midlands JUL normal but above in N W Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but below in SE Eire Wales N England and E Scotland
MAY normal JUN normal but below in Wales N England far SE England E Scotland and SE Eire JUL normal but below in S and E Eire, S and E Scotland Wales and N England locally above in E Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
MAY normal JUN normal locally above in Midlands W Eire and most of Scotland except the S JUL normal locally above in W Highland Scotland
PPN: Season: Normal in NW Eire, NW Scotland and parts of SE England elsewhere below normal
MAY England and Wales below normal elsewhere normal JUN below normal JUL NW Eire, NW Scotland, Midlands and SE England normal elsewhere below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070418
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and NW Eire
MAY normal locally below in N Wales JUN normal locally above in W Eire and NW Scotland JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland and far SE England but locally below in N Ireland S and E Scotland, N England and N Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010418
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY near normal but locally below in NE England JUN near normal but locally below in NE England JUL near normal but locally below in NE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Devon, W Eire and NW Scotland
MAY Normal but above in Eire, SW England and Midlands JUN normal but bove in N England S and W Scotland, N Ireland and W Eire JUL normal locally above in far SE England but below in Wales N England S and E Scotland



The South African Weather Service currently maintain two separate seasonal forecasting systems. One dynamical global Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), as well as a statistical forecasting system which is based on a Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach and is downscaled to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) area of interest. SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 190418
TEMP: N of UK below elsewhere no signal
PPN: Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below normal

SAWS Operational 40 member ensemble. - 190418
TEMP: N England and S Scotland below elsewhere no signal
PPN: Above normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) 110418 (170418)
Temp: Season above normal but SW England below
MAY below normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season Scotland above normal elsewhere below
MAY N Scotland and S UK above elsewhere below JUN NW above elsewhere below JUL N above elsewhere below
PMSL: Season far N below normal elsewhere above (WNW)
MAY N below S above (WNW) JUN above normal JUL N below elsewhere above (NW)



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 170418 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal (similar probs for A/N/B)
PPN : England and Wales no signal elsewhere below normal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150418
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Below normal perhaps LQ
PPN: normal but chance above in NW
PMSL: Normal but above to S of UK and perhaps below in far N
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Below normal perhaps LQ
PPN: Normal
PMSL: Normal but above to S of UK
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: Normal but SE and E of england above normal chance UQ
PPN: S normal elsewhere above normal and perhaps UQ in N half of UK.
PMSL: S normal elsewhere below normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: below normal strong signal mod to high probs (50 to 70%) for LQ
PPN: normnal perhaps above in NW and below in far SE
PMSL: N Scotland below elsewhere normal above over France



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.833deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 140418 - .
TEMP: Season near normal
MAY near normal JUN near normal perhaps slightly below JUL SW England and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season near normal
MAY near normal but NE Scotland below and S Eire above JUN near normal JUL near normal but NW Scotland and far NW Eire below normal
PMSL: Season near normal
MAY Eire and W UK below elsewhere near normal JUN S Eire and SW UK above normal elsewhere near normal JUL far NE Scotland above normal elsewhere near normal




ECMWF - monthly - 120418 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
MAY Coastal areas below, inland normal JUN W coastal areas below elsewhere normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY Above normal S and E Eire, Wales SW England and Midlands also Highland Scotland elsewhere normal JUN Much of S Eire SW England Midlands and central S England below normal elsewhere mostly above normal JUL Above in E EIre SE England and SE Scotlnd, below in central and N Scotland, SW Eire W Midlands and westcountry elsewhere normal
PMSL:
MAY normal JUN S above N below JUL slightly above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season: below normal
MAY below normal JUN England and Wales mostly above elsewhere below normal JUL below normal
PPN: Season: above normal
MAY above normal JUN below normal JUL Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal




UKMO - 110418 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above normal most likely. Slightly enhanced chance upper quintile (UQ).
PPN : Above normal for N Ireland SW and S Scotland, possibly also much of England (UT) but below normal in SW Eire and SW England (Chance LQ in S and UQ in N)
PSML: Above normal most likely. S especially aboe normal N may be near normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - 110418 - two outputs schemes
Temp: normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal perhaps below in far SW



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090418
TEMP: Season
MAY N below normal S above JUN NE below normal elsewhere normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP: normal
MAY above normal but SW England and Eire normal JUN above normal but SW England and S Eire normal JUL normal
PPN : far N below, Wales and most of England above elsewhere normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal but far SE England below, N Ireland N Englan and all Scotland above



Russia 310318
Temp: Season: No signal but surrounded by below normal sea temps
PPN : No signal (similar probs for above/normal/below)



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070817
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN: season - S below normal elsewhere normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170418
TEMP: season - near normal (starts with May below norma
PPN rate: season - near normal



Graphics 070418
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP not available

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P

CALIBREATED NMME PPN:
cP cP cP


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2018 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 170418 -
Temperature: near normal for the season possibly with cooler than normal start and warmer than normal August.
Rain: Some indications for normal or below normal in S of UK and normal or above in the north. Monthly data uncertain about the wetter months(s) but possibly August wettest seeing the higher rain rates. Note CFS and ECMWF pretty well opposite signals. CFS preferred but most models were poor with 2017 summer rain rate anomalies



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8





USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
JUN normal but above in NW Eire, N ireland and northern two thirds of Scotland JUL normal but above in NW Scotland AUG normal
PPN: Season:
JUN normal but above in S Midlands and below in Cornwall NW Wales and NE Scotland JUL normal but above in S and SE England and Midlands plus NW Scotland and NW Eire but below in N and NE England S and E Scotland AUG below in NE Scotlan but above elsewhere

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170418
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
JUN normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, Scotland Wales and W Midlands JUL normal but above in N W Scotland AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotlan and below in NE Scotland N England and N Wales
JUN normal but below in Wales N England far SE England E Scotland and SE Eire JUL normal but below in S and E Eire, S and E Scotland Wales and N England locally above in E Midlands AUG normal but above in W Scotland Eie SW England and SW Midlands locally below in NE Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
JUN normal locally above in Midlands W Eire and most of Scotland except the S JUL normal locally above in W Highland Scotland AUG normal locally above in NW Highlands
PPN: Season: normal but below in Wales, N England, S and E Scotland and E of Eire
JUN below normal JUL NW EIre, NW Scotland, Midlands and SE England normal elsewhere below normal AUG N and E of England S and NE Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070418
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland AUG normal S
PPN: Season: Above normal in S third of England NW Eire and NW Scotland elsewhere normal
JUN normal locally above in W Eire and NW Scotland JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland and far SE England but locally below in N Ireland S and E Scotland, N England and N Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010418
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN near normal but locally below in NE England JUL near normal but locally below in NE England AUG near normal S
PPN: Season: normal locally above NW Scotland but below in N Wales
JUN normal but bove in N England S and W Scotland, N Ireland and W Eire JUL normal locally above in far SE England but below in Wales N England S and E Scotland AUG normal but above in E Midlands, SE England and locally in central Eire but below in Wales, N Scotland and W Eire



The South African Weather Service currently maintain two separate seasonal forecasting systems. One dynamical global Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) using the ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM), as well as a statistical forecasting system which is based on a Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach and is downscaled to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) area of interest. SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 190418
TEMP: Below normal
PPN: Below normal but Eire and N Ireland no signal

SAWS Operational 40 member ensemble. - 190418
TEMP: Below normal but Eire and N Ireland no signal
PPN: Above normal but NE Scotland below normal



USA - IRI - 170418 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : W Eire below normal NW Scotland above normal elsewhere no signal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150418
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Inland near normal (climat probs A/N/B)
PPN: S below elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal but above to S and below in far N
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: near normal (climat probs A/N/B) but far N below normal
PPN: mostly near normal chance of beow in S (LT)
PMSL: normal but above in and to the S
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal (UT and in N and E UQ)
PPN: normal but S Scotland and N England normal
PMSL: Irish Sea, Wales and SW below normal elsewhere normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: below normal strong signal LT and LQ
PPN: England and Wales below, far NW Scotland above elsewhere normal. In the South LT and LQ
PMSL: N below elsewhere normal



ECs

ECMWF - monthly - 120418 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUN W coastal areas below elsewhere normal JUL normal AUG normal but Midlands and central S England above
PPN:
JUN Much of S Eire SW England Midlands and central S England below normal elsewhere mostly above normal JUL Above in E EIre SE England and SE Scotlnd, below in central and N Scotland, SW Eire W Midlands and westcountry elsewhere normal AUG mostly below normal
PMSL:
JUN S above N below JUL slightly above AUG above normal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 110418
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season: slightly below
JUN England and Wales mostly above elsewhere below normal JUL below normal AUG below normal S
PPN: Season: Eire N England and S Scotland above elsewhere below
JUN below normal JUL Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere aboove normal AUG N Scotland below elsewhere above




UKMO - 110418 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above normal most likely. S may be nearer normal but N more likely above. Enhanced probs for UQ (25-40%)
PPN : Above normal (UT) except N Scotland similar probs A/N/B. Enhanced probs for UQ (25-40%)

PSML: Similar probs A/N/B but NE Scotland chance below normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - 110418 - two outputs schemes
Temp: normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal perhaps below in far SW



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090418
TEMP: Season
JUN NE below normal elsewhere normal JUL above normal AUG above normal S
PPN : Season
JUN below normal JUL normal AUG above normal




CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP: normal locally above in W Scotland
JUN above normal but SW England and S Eire normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN : normal
JUN normal JUL normal but far SE England below, N Ireland N Englan and all Scotland above AUG normal but SW England far S Wales and SW half Eire below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070418
TEMP: season - Above normal
PPN rate: season - below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170418
TEMP: season - slightly above normal
PPN rate: season - no signal





Graphics 070418
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP not available

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2018 JUL AUG SEP




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220418
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in NW Scotland AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: Above normal in S and W Eire, W Scotland Midlands and S of England locally below in NE Scotland elsewhere normal
JUL normal but above in S and SE England and Midlands plus NW Scotland and NW Eire but below in N and NE England S and E Scotland AUG below in NE Scotlan but above elsewhere SEP normal but abive in Midlands, N England S Scotland and S and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170418
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in N W Scotland AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NE Scotland
JUL normal but below in S and E Eire, S and E Scotland Wales and N England locally above in E Midlands AUG normal but above in W Scotland Eie SW England and SW Midlands locally below in NE Scotland SEP normal locally below in SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
JUL normal locally above in W Highland Scotland AUG normal locally above in NW Highlands SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands and W Scotland but below in parts of N Ireland
JUL NW EIre, NW Scotland, Midlands and SE England normal elsewhere below normal AUG N and E of England S and NE Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal SEP Centran and W Scotland, NW England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070418
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland AUG normal SEP normal locall above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: N England and NE Scotland normal otherewise above normal
JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland and far SE England but locally below in N Ireland S and E Scotland, N England and N Wales AUG Eire, Wales and S two thirds of England above elsewhere normal SEP above normal but N Eire and N Ireland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010418
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL near normal but locally below in NE England AUG near normal SEP near normal but NW Scotland above
PPN: Season: Normal but locally below in W Eire and NW England but above in all S of England
JUL normal locally above in far SE England but below in Wales N England S and E Scotland AUG normal but above in E Midlands, SE England and locally in central Eire but below in Wales, N Scotland and W Eire SEP normal but above in S and SW England,SE Eire, Central and W Scotland




ECMWF - monthly - 120418 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG normal but Midlands and central S England above SEP normal
PPN:
JUL Above in E EIre SE England and SE Scotlnd, below in central and N Scotland, SW Eire W Midlands and westcountry elsewhere normal AUG mostly below normal SEP W and NW Scotland below, N Ireland, Eire Wales and mi=ost of S of England above elsewhere normal
PMSL:
JUL slightly above AUG above normal SEP Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season:
JUL below normal AUG below normal SEP N Scotland above elsewhere below normal
PPN: Season:
JUL Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal AUG N Scotland below elsewhere above SEP below normal




UKMO - 110418 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: Above normal most likely. Enhanced probs for UQ 25-40% but Scotland 40-55%
PPN : England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
PSML: N slightly favours above normal and S normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090418
TEMP: Season
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT N and W above normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season
JUL normal AUG above normal SEP N and W above, E below normal




CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal but SE England, NW England, N Ireland and Scotland above normal
PPN :
JUL normal but far SE England below, N Ireland N Englan and all Scotland above AUG normal but SW England far S Wales and SW half Eire below SEP far S and SW England below, N ireland N and W Scotland above elsewhere normal





2018 AUG SEP OCT




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220418
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal in E Eire, N Ireland, Wales, SW England andN and W of Scotland
AUG below in NE Scotlan but above elsewhere SEP normal but abive in Midlands, N England S Scotland and S and W Eire OCT noprmal locally below in N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170418
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NE Scotland and N Ireland
AUG normal but above in W Scotland Eie SW England and SW Midlands locally below in NE Scotland SEP normal locally below in SE England OCT normal locally below in Eire, N ireland and most of Scotland except the SE.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
AUG normal locally above in NW Highlands SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland and perhaps W Midlands
AUG N and E of England S and NE Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal SEP Centran and W Scotland, NW England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal OCT below normal in Eire, N ireland N Wales and most of Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070418
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: N half Scotland, N Ireland and N England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010418
TEMP: Season: normal but above in N and W Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in all S of England and most of Scotland except NE.




ECMWF - monthly - 120418 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
AUG normal but Midlands and central S England above SEP normal OCT normal locally above in Perthshire,Fife and Kinross also E Anglia and Eastern most Midlands
PPN:
AUG mostly below normal SEP W and NW Scotland below, N Ireland, Eire Wales and mi=ost of S of England above elsewhere normal OCT All S of England and E Scotland above elsewhere mostly below normal
PMSL:
AUG above normal SEP Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal OCT SW UK and SW Eire normal elsewhere above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season:
AUG below normal SEP N Scotland above elsewhere below normal OCT below normal
PPN: Season:
AUG N Scotland below elsewhere above SEP below normal OCT N Scotland above elsewhere below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090418
TEMP: Season
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT N and W above normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season
AUG above normal SEP N and W above, E below normal OCT above normal




CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal but SE England, NW England, N Ireland and Scotland above normal OCT above normal but SW UK and Eire normal
PPN :
AUG normal but SW England far S Wales and SW half Eire below SEP far S and SW England below, N ireland N and W Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT normal but NE Englan and most of Scotland above NOV normal but below in SW England, SW Wales Eire and far N Scotland





2018 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 170418 -
Temperature near or slightly above normal with the highest probs of above normal being in NW Scotland. Rainfall near normal but above especially across the north and midlands due to a wetter November with earlier months possible seeing drier than normal in parts of the S and W UK and S and W Eire.





USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220418
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170418
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N Ireland and far N Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070418
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: SE, E and NE England, N IReland and N and E Scotland normal elsewhere above normal

TEMP: Season: normal but above in N and W Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 110418
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland below elsewhere above
SEP N Scotland above elsewhere below normal OCT below normal NOV S above elsewhere below normal
PPN: Season above normal
SEP below normal OCT N Scotland above elsewhere below normal NOV above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090418
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT N and W above normal elsewhere normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP N and W above, E below normal OCT above normal NOV below normal




CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP: normal locally above in Scotland
SEP normal but SE England, NW England, N Ireland and Scotland above normal OCT above normal but SW UK and Eire normal NOV normal locally above in W and central Scotland
PPN : normal locally below in far SW England and locally above in NW Highlands
SEP far S and SW England below, N ireland N and W Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT normal but NE Englan and most of Scotland above NOV normal but below in SW England, SW Wales Eire and far N Scotland



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070418
TEMP: season - Above normal
PPN rate: season - Above normal





UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P





2018 OCT NOV DEC




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220418
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170418
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Scotland N Ireland and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130418
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in S and E Scotland and Wales



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season:
OCT below normal NOV S above elsewhere below normal DEC above normal
PPN: Season:
OCT N Scotland above elsewhere below normal NOV above normal DEC N Scotland below elsewhere above normal




CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP:
OCT above normal but SW UK and Eire normal NOV normal locally above in W and central Scotland DEC normal
PPN :
OCT normal but NE Englan and most of Scotland above NOV normal but below in SW England, SW Wales Eire and far N Scotland DEC normal but N England and most of Scotland above





2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season:
NOV S above elsewhere below normal DEC above normal JAN S below elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season:
NOV above normal DEC N Scotland below elsewhere above normal JAN below normal




CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP:
NOV normal locally above in W and central Scotland DEC normal JAN above normal but normal in SW England and SW Eire
PPN :
NOV normal but below in SW England, SW Wales Eire and far N Scotland DEC normal but N England and most of Scotland above JAN normal but SW UK and S half of Eire below





2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - -



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season: slightly below but Scotland slightly above
DEC above normal JAN S below elsewhere above normal FEB below normal
PPN: Season: below normal
DEC N Scotland below elsewhere above normal JAN below normal FEB below normal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 110418
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: above normal



CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP: normal but above in N England and Scotland
DEC normal JAN above normal but normal in SW England and SW Eire FEB above normal but normal in SW England and SW Eire
PPN : normal but below in SW Eire SW England and far N Scotland
DEC normal but N England and most of Scotland above JAN normal but SW UK and S half of Eire below FEB below normal





2019 JAN FEB MAR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season:
JAN S below elsewhere above normal FEB below normal MAR S below normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season:
JAN below normal FEB below normal MAR below normal




CanSIPS - 310318
TEMP:
JAN above normal but normal in SW England and SW Eire FEB above normal but normal in SW England and SW Eire MAR above normal but normal in SW Eire
PPN :
JAN normal but SW UK and S half of Eire below FEB below normal MAR normal but S Scotland and N England above





2019 FEB MAR APR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110418 -
TEMP: Season:
FEB below normal MAR S below normal elsewhere above APR below normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season:
FEB below normal MAR below normal APR S below normal elsewhere above





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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