SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

Follow @T2mike
Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - September 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 031018(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), Russia, CanSips, USA NASA GMAO GSFC, UKMO seasonal, Japan JMA, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and International IMME, NMME and CFS2 graphics, ECMWF monthly, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS), BCC China, USA - IRI, UKMO Contingency, KMA, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF), Korea APCC, JAMSTEC and if available South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011018), CANSIP 011018.
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN

Summary -


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and S England
NOV normal DEC normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland all E England and parts of Midlands
NOV above normal but normal in NE Scotland N and NE England and E Anglia DEC normal but above in EIre SW Scotland and SW England JAN above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
NOV normal but England and Wales above DEC normal but SE England above JAN above normal l
PPN :
NOV normal b ut central and SE England above DEC N Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN normal locally below in far SW England and SW Eire





CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8



2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and S England
DEC normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal N Ireland and W Eire
DEC normal but above in EIre SW Scotland and SW England JAN above normal FEB normal but above in Wales N England S Scotland W Eire.



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
DEC normal but SE England above JAN above normal FEB normal but Scotland above normal
PPN :
DEC N Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN normal locally below in far SW England and SW Eire FEB below normal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8




2019 JAN FEB MAR




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR normal
PPN:
JAN above normal FEB normal but above in Wales N England S Scotland W Eire. MAR above normal but normal in S England and N Ireland



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB normal but Scotland above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN normal locally below in far SW England and SW Eire FEB below normal MAR normal





2019 FEB MAR APR




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and S England
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in S England



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
FEB normal but Scotland above normal MAR above normal APR normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR normal APR N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal





2019 MAR APR MAY

Summary -




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SE England
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland and Midlands and S England



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal or above normal
PPN :
MAR normal APR N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal MAY normal





2019 APR MAY JUN



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal or above normal JUN Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
APR N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal MAY normal JUN normal





2019 MAY JUN JUL



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
MAY normal or above normal JUN Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal JUN normal JUL below normal br>




2019 JUN JUL AUG


Summary -



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
JUN Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal JUL below normal AUG E normal elsewhere mostly above





2019 JUL AUG SEP


CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP normal
PPN :
JUL below normal AUG E normal elsewhere mostly above SEP normal but SW Eire below and NW Scotland above





2019 AUG SEP OCT






NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data