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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - January 2016 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 290216 070316 delayed SAWS (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


February 2016 data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
FINAL


Data sources available date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (310116 070216 140216 210216 270216), CanSips 010216, Russia 040216, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060216, NMME UK area 090216, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 080216, UKMO seasonal 090216, Japan JMA 150216, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 160216, BCC China 170216, International IMME 180216, USA - IRI 190216, UKMO Contingency 220216 , Korea APCC 250216.
South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF dated 11 Feb but not online until 060316
India Met Office IMO not available 020216.
Russia graphic looks incorrect 040216 Check update run at end of month


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comment - 190216 IRI output exceptionally strong signal for above normal temps especially in the first 4 or 5 months of the forecast. Due to the low resolutin of this composite enemble the output is probably not a good guide.
Summary - 170216
Unsettled. Winds often SW to W but later in period S to NW.
Temperatures most likely above normal overall for the season. March most likely to be above normal except perhaps in the N where nearer normal. April uncertain probably near normal. May generally near normal/slightly below perhaps some colder intervals though not very cold.
Rainfall; Statistically, during EL Nino according to IRI, rainfall is likely to be above average in many areas and normal in others (see graphic below). Model oputput mostly agrees with this idea with perhaps the N of Scotland being below normal early in the period and above normal later. In the S or SW perhaps a move towards a less wet May with areas in the N more likely to be wetter than normal. Snow risk about average, hence mainly northern hills.


For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - Above normal precip for many areas suggested by statistical link to El Nino - see maps. However forecasts suggest El Nino may be weakening in Spring 2016.

IRI climate impacts.




NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270216
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in far SE England
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal but chance above in E England
PPN: Season: NE Scotland and E England normal elsewhere above normal
MAR Below normal for SE Scotland, England and Wales and S and E Eire elsewhere normal APR above normal but NE Scotland normal MAY above normal but NE Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210216 - cooler output for March
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: Midlands and central S England normal elsewhere above normal
MAR normal (different from month only data) APR N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAY above normal except normal in SE Eire and W Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140216
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR above normal especially in S APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: E Scotland and Central/S England normal eslewhere above normal
MAR above normal locally normal in NE England APR above normal locally normal in E Scotland, NE England and parts of E Midlands MAY Normal, but above in W and NW Scotland and below in SW England nd SW Mildlands.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070216
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above normal elsewhere normal
MAR above normal (increased signal) APR normal (+/-0.5) MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal W and SW Scotland Wales, Midlands and SE England elsewhere normal
MAR normal but above in SW Scotland NW England W Midlands and parts of Wales also SE Eire. Elsewhere normal. APR Above normal, N Ireland, W Scotland and most of England and Wales except N England. Elsewhere normal. MAY Normal for S and SW England NE England, Centre Eire and N Ireland but for most areas above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310116
TEMP: Season: near normal locally above in far SE England
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN : Season: mostly above normal
MAR normal in N Scotland and central England elsewhere above normal APR N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY N Ireland, Eire, NE Scotland SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. -
TEMP: above normal high prob
PPN:below normal 50 to 70% prob


Korea APCC - 250216
Temp: Season above normal but normal for most of England and Highland Scotland
SST: MAR W near normal elsewhere above APR slightly above normal MAY slightly above normal
PPN : Season Above normal for England and Wales
MAR England and Wales above normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below APR similar probs for above/normal/below but E of England above MAY similar probs for above/normal/below



UKMO contingency 220216
TEMP:
March: UKMO states that "near normal more likely than well above or well below". Comment - Looking at the plot for March more solutions fall in the normal to slightly above normal range than below normal hence probably slightly above normal most likely. Caution with regards risk of sudden stratospheric Warming (see this month and next)
March April May: UKMO states that "above normal temperatures are more likely than below". Enhanced probs for well above normal. Comment - Most solutions spread around near to slightly above normal with only a few in the well below normal range but slightly more in the well above normal range. Slightly above normal most likely.
PPN:
March: UKMO states that there is "an increase in the chance of above-average precipitation, and a decrease in the chance of below-average". Comment - Looking at the plots main clusterning is in the normal to above normal range hence above normal looks fair.
March April May: UKMO states that "above-average precipitation is slightly more probable than below-average". Slightly enhanced risk of well above normal. Comment - There are a couple of clusters in the above normal range but the main cluster looks slightly below normal as do the mode and median values, hence suggest near or slightly below normal is more likely which implies drier April or May assuming March is above normal.



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 190216 -forecasts tends to be overly warm - but even by IRI standards this output sugest unusually high probs for above normal.
Temp: Above normal more than 70% probability. Chance of well above normal temperatures is enhanced (55% prob) for SW England, parts of S England, Eire and N Ireland.
PPN : similar probs for above/normal/below = no signal for a dominant type


BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: Slightly above normal (anom 0.2-0.5C) High probability.
PPN: Season: near normal locally slightly below NE Scotland and W Wales


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 160216
Temp: Normal for NW Eire, N Ireland, S an W Scotland, N Wales and N/NW England elsewhere above normal
PPN : Above normal N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland elsewhere normal (+/-45mm)
PMSL: Below normal over and to the N and NE of UK. Far SW Eire and W Cornwall near normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but S and E of UK above normal
PPN : Above normal SE and SW of England, W Wales, W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire - well above over N Ireland and Eire, elsewhere normal



UKMO - 090216 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Least likely areas (probs below 20%) for below normal W Wales SW and S England and most of N and NE Scotland. Areas most likely near normal Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England. Areas most likely above normal include most of Scotland and England. Enhanced probs for well above normal cover England, Wales, Scotland and parts of N Ireland.
PPN : NW England, W Scotland, N Wales and N Ireland above normal. Central England normal. Elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below. However enhanced probs for well above normal (1 in 5 year) in range 25 to 40% for Scotland, N Ireland, N England, Wales, SW England and also SE England.
PSML: Above normal S Eire and to SW of UK below to NW and E of UK. UK area near normal range.


Japan JMA - run 10th available 150216 - (as of June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above normal
MAR slightly above normal APR slightly below normal but in E Scotland and E England slightly above MAY slightly above
PPN : Season slightly above normal
MAR slightly above normal APR slightly above normal MAY mostly slightly below but N and E England slgihtly above
PMSL: Season in the S slightly above normal in the N slightly below normal (WNW)
MAR in the S slightly above normal in the N slightly below normal (WNW) APR slightly below normal (WNW) MAY slightly above (Slack WNW)


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060216 (normal +/-0.25C)
TEMP: Season England and Wales above normal especially SE England
MAR normal but NW Eire below normal and all S of England slightly above. APR normal but inland Scotland below and above normal for SE, far S and SW England and parts of SW and W Wales. MAY most of Eire normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN : Season S Eire, SW England and Wles above normal elsewhere normal
MAR S Eire, SW England and SW Wales above, locally below in NW Scotland and far E England elsewhere normal APR Scotland normal elsewhere above MAY Eire, N Ireland and Scotland slightly above elsewhere normal


Russia end of month update 290216 - looks better graphic output
Temp: Slightly above normal mainly in S and E UK risk of W Eire being below normal
PPN : SW England above normal elsewhere imilar probs for above/normal/below

Russia 040216 - looks suspect no below normal areas in global graphic for temp and rain?
Temp: above normal
PPN : above normal


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.

Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
MAR N Ireland and most of Eire except the east, normal. Elsewhere above normal.
APR above normal especially in SE England
MAY above normal especially in SE England but W of Eire near normal
PPN :
MAR N half Eire, N Ireland and most of Scotland drier than normal elsewhere normal but NE England above normal
APR N of Scotland normal otherwise above normal especially in SW
MAY Above normal for Eire, N Ireland, N half of Scotland elsewhere near normal


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080216 - see graphics for month to month

TEMP: SEASON: 40 to 60% prob above normal highest in S, lowest in W/NW of UK and Eire area. CFS2 stronger signal for above normal CMC2 the coldest of the output with near normal.
PPN: SEASON: 40 in N to 50% prob in S for above normal


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 180216
TEMP: Season: W Eire and NW Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal highest anomaly in SE England.
Strongest signal for above normal in March, lowest in April with most of Scotland and Eire/N Ireland near normal and May only slightly above and near normal in N and W.
PPN: Season: near normal (+/-0.25mm/day)
Hint of above normal in far SE March and May.



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP 080216





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080216




200hPa height anomalty NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib 080216





Late Spring 2016 APR MAY JUN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270216
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal but chance above in E England JUN normal locally below NE England and far SW England
PPN: Season: Normal for Wales and W Midlands elsewhere above normal
APR above normal but NE Scotland normal MAY above normal but NE Scotland normal JUN NW Scotland above normal. Below normal for S Eire, Wales and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210216
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal locally below in S Eire, Cornwall, parts of Wales and NE England
PPN: Season: mostly above normal
APR N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAY above normal except normal in SE Eire and W Midlands JUN normal but above in S and SE England and below in S and W Eire

TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal locally below NE England and W Cornwall
PPN: Season: normal but above normal in most of Eire and N Ireland, W and Central Scotland, NW England and SE England
APR above normal locally normal in E Scotland, NE England and parts of E Midlands MAY Normal but above in W and NW Scotland but below in SW England and SW Mildlands JUN above normal locally normal in E Scotland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070216
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal (+/-0.5) MAY normal JUN normal hint locally below NE England and far SW England
PPN: Season: ABove normal N Ireland W and central Scotland N and E wales and England except the N. Elsewhere normal.
APR Above normal, N Ireland, W Scotland and most of England and Wales except N England. Elsewhere normal. MAY Normal for S and SW England NE England, Centre Eire and N Ireland but for most areas above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310116
TEMP: Season: near normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal locally below in SE Eire SW England, S Wales and NE England J
PPN : Season: above noprmal but normal for SW England Eire and N Ireland
APR N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY N Ireland, Eire, NE Scotland SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above normal JUN Below normal SW Eire, Cornwall. Above normal Scotland, NW England, E Wales and far SE England elsewhere normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. -
TEMP: above normal high prob except NE coastal strip of England no signal
PPN: below normal 50 to 70% prob


Temp: Above normal more than 70% probability. Chance of well above normal temperatures is enhanced (55% prob) for SW England, parts of S England, Eire and N Ireland.
PPN : similar probs for above/normal/below = no signal for a dominant type


BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: NW Scotland slightly above elsewhere normal to slightly above (0.2 to -0.2 anom)
PPN: Season: Normal locally slightly below S Scotland, NW England and W Wales


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 160216
Temp: Above normal S Eire, SW England, SE England, E England and NE Scotland elsewhere normal
PPN : Above normal N Ireland, E Eire, W Wales and W Scotland elsewhere normal
PMSL: SW England and SW Eire slightly above elsewhere slightly below, lower to N and NW.
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but S and E of England above normal
PPN : Above normal for Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland, W Wales and far SW England elsewhere normal



UKMO - 090216 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Above normal most likely although W Eire could be below. Ehanced probs for well above normal all areas but 40 to 55% range for Highland and NE Scotland also S of England.
PPN : Mixed signal. Least likely to be above normal are N Ireland, Eire and NE England. Area with increased probs for below normal include most of Eire, N Ireland, Midlands and NE England. Slightly enhanced probs for well below in these areas. Otherwise similar probs for above/normal/below except Cornwall and S Devon where enhanced probs for well above normal occur.
PSML: Above or well above normal pressure over UK compared to normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060216 (normal +/-0.25C)
TEMP: Season above normal but less so in W Eire
APR normal but inland Scotland below and above normal for SE, far S and SW England and parts of SW and W Wales. MAY most of Eire normal elsewhere slightly above JUN above normal
PPN : Season normal
APR Scotland normal elsewhere above MAY Eire, N Ireland and Scotland slightly above elsewhere normal JUN Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal



Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
APR above normal especially in SE England
MAY above normal especially in SE England but W of Eire near normal
JUN Eire, SW England and SW Wales near normal elsewhere below normal
PPN :
APR N of Scotland normal otherwise above normal especially in SW
MAY Above normal for Eire, N Ireland, N half of Scotland elsewhere near normal
JUN Below normal but most of Eire, N Ireland and E England normal



MAY JUN JUL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270216
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal but chance above in E England JUN normal locally below NE England and far SW England JUL normal locally below NE England and far SW England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW England far SE England and W Scotland
MAY above normal but NE Scotland normal JUN NW Scotland above normal. Below normal for S Eire, Wales and Midlands JUL normal but below normal for SW Ere, N England and far N Scotland. Chance of above for Devon. Elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210216
TEMP: Season: normal localy below NE England and W Cornwall
MAY normal JUN normal locally below in S Eire, Cornwall, parts of Wales and NE England JUL normal locally below in S and E Eire, SW England, parts of SW and W Wales and NE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and all of S of England and E Anglia
MAY above normal except normal in SE Eire and W Midlands JUN normal but above in S and SE England and below in S and W Eire JUL normal but above in all of S England

TEMP: Season: mostly normal locally below far SW Cornwall and NE England
MAY normal JUN normal locally below NE ENgland and W Cornwall JUL normal locally below S and E Eire NE England and Cornwall
PPN: Season: normal but above in N Ireland, W Eire, SE England, NW England, W Scotland and parts of Central Scotland
MAY Normal ut above in W and NW Scotland but below in SW England nd SW Mildlands JUN above normal locally normal in E Scotland and NE England JUL normal locally above in W and S Scotland, W of N Ireland, NW Eire, NW England, N and E Midlands, E and SE England also parts of S Devon

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070216
TEMP: Season: normal locally cooler near N Sea coasts NE England and far W Cornwall
MAY normal JUN normal hint locally below NE England and far SW England JUL normal hint locally below NE England and far SW England
PPN: Season: Above normal W Scotland, Midlands and SE England elsewhere normal
MAY Normal for S and SW England NE England, Centre Eire and N Ireland but for most areas above normal JUN Below normal S Eire. Above normal Wales and S England elsewhere normal. JUL Below normal SE Eire and Cornwall. ABove normal SE England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310116
TEMP: Season: near normal locally below in NE England
MAY normal JUN normal locally below in SE Eire SW England, S Wales and NE England JUL normal locally below in SE and E Eire, SW England, Wales and N England
PPN : Season: above normal in N England, Scotland and SE England
MAY N Ireland, Eire, NE Scotland SW England and SW Midlands normal elsewhere above normal JUN Below normal SW Eire, Cornwall. Above normal Scotland, NW England, E Wales and far SE England elsewhere normal JUL Below normal S Eire, Conrwall ,E Wales/W Midlands. Above normal in E England elsewhere normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. -
TEMP: above normal high prob except N and E Scotland and coastal strip of NE England no signal
PPN: below normal 33 to 60% prob


Temp: Above normal ranges from over 70% probability in the NW to 55% in SE. Chance of well above normal temperatures is enhanced (55% prob) for SW England, parts of S England, Eire and N Ireland. Cooling trend?
PPN : similar probs for above/normal/below = no signal for a dominant type


BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: near normal to slightly above in Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland elsewhere near normal to slightly below
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above


UKMO - 090216 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: above or well above normal
PPN : Below normal or most areas. Below normal most likely for N Ireland, Eire, Wales, W Midlands and SW England with enhanced probs for well below normal Wales Eire and N Ireland. SE England normal.
PSML: above normal most likely possibly well above normal especially in Scotland. (less lows than normal)


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060216 (normal +/-0.25C)
TEMP: Season above normal
MAY most of Eire normal elsewhere slightly above JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season normal perhaps below in NW Scotland
MAY Eire, N Ireland and Scotland slightly above elsewhere normal JUN Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normalelsewhere normal JUL Eire, N Ireland and N half of Scotland below normal elsewhere normal


Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
MAY above normal especially in SE England but W of Eire near normal
JUN Eire, SW England and SW Wales near normal elsewhere below normal
JUL E of England below normal elsewhere normal
PPN :
MAY Above normal for Eire, N Ireland, N half of Scotland elsewhere near normal
JUN Below normal but most of Eire, N Ireland and E England normal
JUL near normal but E Scotland above and far SE England below



Summer 2016 JUN JUL AUG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Summary - 170216 - Quite a spread of solutions but main indication is for near normal temperature, perhaps a little below normal in the West due to cooler than normal Atlantic Sea temperature but a little above normal inland in central areas.
Rainfall mixed inciation but some signs of enhanced Atlantic Jet hence a changeable summer is most likely. Some hints at above normal rainfall but unclear where this might be although the N and W most likely with the S less likely to be wetter than normal.
No indication for a long hot dry summer rather a normal type of summer is more likely which implies some unsettled spells although hints at more ridging in the S early in summer rather than later.

For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th of the Month



Comment - IRI statistical rainfall probabilities not included as El Nino should be Neutral by summer 2016


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270216
Note: Cold sea temps forecast to persist again this year across N Atlantic and towards UK.
TEMP: Season: normal locally blow NE England and far SW England
JUN normal locally below NE England and far SW England JUL normal locally below NE England and far SW England AUG normal locally below NE England and N Ireland
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland
JUN NW Scotland above normal. Below normal for S Eire, Wales and Midlands JUL normal but below normal for SW Eire, N England and far N Scotland. Chance of above for Devon. Elsewhere normal AUG above normal SW England Eire central and W Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210216
TEMP: Season: normal locally below in S and E Eire, Cornwall, parts of Wales and NE England
JUN normal locally below in S Eire, Cornwall, parts of Wales and NE England JUL normal locally below in S and E Eire, SW England, parts of SW and W Wales and NE England AUG normal locally below in E Eire, Cornwall and NE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in all of S of England
JUN normal but above in S and SE England and below in S and W Eire JUL normal but above in all of S England AUG Above normal in Central and SE England, S Midlands NW Eire and NW Scotland elsewhere normal

TEMP: Season: mostly normal locally below far SW Cornwall and NE England
JUN normal locally below NE ENgland and W Cornwall JUL normal locally below S and E Eire NE England and Cornwall AUG normal but below in most of Eire, N Ireland, N Wales and N England and locally below in W Cornwall
PPN: Season: above normal but Wales normal
JUN above normal locally normal in E Scotland and NE England JUL normal locally above in W and S Scotland, W of N Ireland, NW Eire, NW England, N and E Midlands, E and SE England also parts of S Devon AUG Normal but above normal in SW and S of England, N England, most of Scotland, SE and NW EIre.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070216
TEMP: Season: normal locally cooler near N Sea coasts NE England and far W Cornwall
PPN: Season: S Eire below normal far SE England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310116
TEMP: Season: near normal locally below in NE England, Wales and SW England
PPN : Season: below normal in S Eire and Cornwall, above normal in E England, elsewhere normal



Korea APCC - 250216
Temp: Season near normal or slightly above
SST: mostly similar probs for above/normal/below but above normal N of Scotland and in northern North Sea PPN : Season no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below
JUN similar probs for above/normal/below JUL similar probs for above/normal/below AUG similar probs for above/normal/below but S of UK hint at beklow normal



USA - IRI - 190216 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal ranges from 60% probability in the NW to 45% in SE. Chance of well above normal temperatures is enhanced (55% prob) for parts of Eire and N Ireland. Overall cooling trend for the S and E.
PPN : similar probs for above/normal/below = no signal for a dominant type


BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: near normal to slightly below but NW Eire and NW Scotland near normal to slightly above
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above but NW Eire and NW Scotland near normal to slightly below
200hPa Season: Enhanced jet strength N of USA and S Canada across to N half of UK. Consistent in last 3 month data.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060216 (normal +/-0.25C)
TEMP: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season normal but above in NW Eire and N half of Scotland
JUN Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUL Eire, N Ireland and N half of Scotland below normal elsewhere normal AUG normal



Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
JUN Eire, SW England and SW Wales near normal elsewhere below normal
JUL E of England below normal elsewhere normal
AUG N England, Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire above normal elsewhere normal
PPN :
JUN Below normal but most of Eire, N Ireland and E England normal
JUL near normal but E Scotland above and far SE England below
AUG normal but England and Wales above


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080216
TEMP: Season: more than 50% prob for above normal (slightly lower in W) - CFS2 and CMC2 cooler GFDL NCAR and NASA output warmer.

PPN: Season: normal but N Scotland above normal and S of UK below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 180216
TEMP: Season: above normal highest anomaly in SE England.
June N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere slightly above but in SE 0.5 to 1C anomaly. July Above normal all areas 0.5 to 1C anomaly. August slightly above normal but England and Wales above normal with 0.5 to 1C anomaly
PPN: Season: near normal (+/-0.25mm/day)
No detectable montly variation.



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 080216




200hPa height anomalty NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib 080216





JUL AUG SEP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270216
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal in NW Scotland and Argyll

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210216
TEMP: Season: normal locally below in NE England E and SW Eire and far W Cornwall
PPN: Season: Midlands and all S Englnd above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140216
TEMP: Season: mostly normal locally below far SW Cornwall and NE England
PPN: Season: above normal for S and SE England, NW England, S and W Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070216
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Below normal S Eire above normal W Scotland and E/SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310116
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN : Season: below normal in far SW Eire, above normal in E England and Devon, elsewhere normal



BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: near normal to slightly below but NW Eire and NW Scotland near normal to slightly above
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above but NW Eire and NW Scotland near normal to slightly below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060216 (normal +/-0.25C)
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP normal but parts of S and E England slightly above
PPN :
JUL Eire, N Ireland and N half of Scotland below normal elsewhere normal AUG normal SEP normal but well above normal SW Eire, NW England and SW Scotland



Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
JUL E of England below normal elsewhere normal
AUG N England, Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire above normal elsewhere normal
SEP above normal especially N Scotland
PPN:
JUL near normal but E Scotland above and far SE England below
AUG normal but England and Wales above
SEP E Scotland and E England normal elsewhere below normal especially Eire



AUG SEP OCT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270216
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal in W Eire and most of central and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210216
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands and S/SE England (not SW)

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140216
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: S Wales and all S of England above normal elsewhere normal



BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: near normal to slightly above but Highland Scotland slightly below
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above but N Scotland near normal to slightly below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060216 (normal +/-0.25C)
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP normal but parts of S and E England slightly above OCT S and SE England near normal elsewhere below normal
PPN :
AUG normal SEP normal but well above normal SW Eire, NW England and SW Scotland OCT above normal



Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
AUG N England, Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire above normal elsewhere normal
SEP above normal especially N Scotland
OCT SW Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere above especially in the N
PPN :
AUG normal but England and Wales above
SEP E Scotland and E England normal elsewhere below normal especially Eire
OCT normal but N half of Scotland above





Autumn 2016 SEP OCT NOV -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: near normal to slightly above for Wales ENgland and Scotland elsewhere near to slightly below normal
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly below but N Scotland near normal to slightly above



Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
SEP above normal especially N Scotland
OCT SW Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere above especially in the N
NOV Scotland below normal, far SW England above but for most near normal
PPN :
SEP E Scotland and E England normal elsewhere below normal especially Eire
OCT normal but N half of Scotland above
NOV normal but Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above





OCT NOV DEC -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 170216 -
TEMP: Season: Eire N Ireland and Scotland near normal to slightly below normal elsewhere normal to slightly above
PPN: Season: near normal to slightly above but NW Scotland near normal to slightly below



Cansips - 010216
TEMP:
OCT SW Eire and Cornwall normal elsewhere above especially in the N
NOV Scotland below normal, far SW England above but for most near normal
DEC Below normal in N Ireland, S Scotland and most of England and Wales except the SW. Elsewhere near normal.
JAN above normal especially in the N
PPN :
OCT normal but N half of Scotland above
NOV normal but Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above
DEC Below normal for N Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, NW Englan and Wales elsewhere normal
JAN normal but above in S and E Eire, SW England and S Wales




NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


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