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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - August 2016 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 290916 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursdays. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


September Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
Final September update
Not available: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010916, 100916, 150916, 210916, 270916), Russia 010916, CanSips 3210816, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060916, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), NMME and CFS2 graphics 090916 (Max and min not available), Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 12091, UKMO seasonal 120916, Japan JMA 130916, BCC China 150916, International IMME 150916, USA - IRI 150916, Korea APCC 260916, UKMO Contingency 290916.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th



2016 OCT NOV DEC


Summary - 230916 - Near or above normal temperatures are expected for the season. Very mixed precipitation signal above/below normal but probably normal or above normal most likely. Periods of below normal rain

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

290916 comment Trend to less mild and less wet solutions in the output through the month.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270916
TEMP: Season: normal
OCT normal NOV N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal DEC N Ireland and NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: NW Scotland above. S Eire, Wales S Scotland and England below elsewhere normal
OCT NW Scotland above England, Wales and S Scotland below elsewhere normal NOV S Eire, SW Egland, SW and NW Wales, N England and S Scotland below elsewhere normal DEC S and SE England, N and NW England, S and W Scotland, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210916
TEMP: Season: normal
OCT normal NOV Midlands, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal DEC N and E Scotland, E of England and W of Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: Normal but NW Scotland above
OCT NE Eire, N Ireland and N half Scotland above, S of England below elsewhere normal NOV S Eire and S England below elsewhere normal DEC Scotland W Eire and SE Midlands/London area normal elsewhre above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150916
TEMP: Season: normal
OCT normal NOV normal but SE England above DEC normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W coasts Scotland, W of N Ireland and Cornwall br> OCT above normal NOV normal but SW England, far N England and S Scotland above normal DEC normal but all W and SW Scotland below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100916
TEMP: Season: normal
OCT normal but Wales above normal NOV normal but Scotland above normal DEC normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales, SW England and W Scotland.
OCT above normal but NE Scotland normal NOV normal but NW Scotland above DEC N Scotland below SW England and SE England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010919
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT normal NOV locally normal S and W Eire and central S England elsewhere above normal DEC above or well above normal
PPN: Season: SE and E of England NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
OCT NW Scotland above, S of England below elsewhere normal NOV N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal DEC N Ireland, N Eire, N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal




UKMO contingency 290916
TEMP: OCTOBER: UKMO says unsettled types most likely with above normal temperature. Comment: distribution shifted towards warmer solutions, about a 20% cluster at 1 deg below normal but about 40% at 1 deg above normal. Above normal most likely.
OCT to DEC: UKMO says similar chance of above or below normal due to higher pressure and less W winds (more N or E watds in Nov/Dec) hence trend to normal or below normal temps trough the three months. Comment output seems to be split either sie of average BUT with a cluster showing below normal being bigger than that for above normal. Given a milder October implication is for a colder than normal period/periods some time in November and/or December.
PPN: OCTOBER: UKMO says unsettled types most likely with above normal rainfall. Comment, the solutions least favour normal rainfall with clusters around well below and well above normal. However the majority of solutions favour above normal/well above normal which is the most likely for the UK as a whole (but the drier soluitions may indicate a split solution over the UK with parts drier?).
OCT to DEC: UKMO says similar chance of above or below normal rainfall. Comment, Given a wetter October a drier than normal period in Nov or Dec is implied. The model plot is almost the same as climatology hence no clear signal, although there is perhaps a hint of just above normal which might be due to October.




Korea APCC - 260916
Temp: Season above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season near normal (drier to S)
OCT near normal but far N above NOV near normal DEC near normal



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 150916 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal 50 to 60% prob but for E of England no signal similar probs for above/normal/below
PPN : no signal similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
(PPN: based on departure percent of precipitation rate = precip anomaly).
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal less so in N
OCT above normal especially England and Wales NOV above normal DEC above normal (1 to 1.5C)
PPN: Season: N Scotland and SE England above elsewhere below
OCT Below normal but Midlands and SE above normal NOV Below normal except far N/NE of Scotland DEC S Eire, Wales and SW England below elsewhere above



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 130916
TEMP: Season above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season S below normal elsewhere above normal
OCT S/SE below normal elsewhere above normal NOV below normal DEC below normal
PMSL: Season above normal (W)
OCT N below normal eslewhere above (WSW) NOV above normal (WNW) DEC strongly above normal (WSW) br>

UKMO - 120916 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Most of England and Wales and perhaps E Scotland more likely to be above normal than below. Elsewhere near normal most likely. Except for Eire there are enhanced probs for well above normal.
PPN : All areas above normal more likely than below. Enhanced probs for well above normal.
PSML: normal or below most likely. Possibly well below normal in N half of UK.


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 120906
Temp: normal
PPN : above normal but NE Scotland and SE Eire normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal locally below in NE Scotland and SW Eire



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060916
TEMP: Season above normal but S and E England only slightly above
OCT Above normal NOV Above normal DEC Eire, N Ireland, Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal
PPN : Season England and Wales below normnal elsewhere normal
OCT SE Eire, Wales and England below normal, elsewhere normal NOV SE Eire, Wales, England and S Scotland below normal, elsewhere normal but N Scotland above DEC England and Wales below normal elsewhere normal
250hPa height anomaly:
OCT Above normal NOV Above normal DEC Above normal


Russia 010916
Temp: S/SE above normal elsewhere similar probs of above/normal/below
PPN : NW of UK below normal elsewhere similar probs of above/normal/below


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC normal e
PPN :
OCT NE Scotland above, Eire, N Ireland W Wales and SW England below elsewhere normal NOV Central and E Scotland above. SW and S Eire S Wales and S of England below elsewhere normal DEC above normal especially in S. Far NW Scotland normal.



The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Temp probs lead 1 month
PPN probs lead 1 month

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080916
TEMP: Season: Above normal, especially England
PPN: Season: near or slightly above normal but S Eire and S of UK normal


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150916
TEMP: season - slightly above normal
OCT above normal NOV near normal DEC slightly above normal

PPN: season - near normal
OCT near normal NOV near normal DEC near normal



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP not available
CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly








2016 NOV DEC 2017 JAN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270916
TEMP: Season: N Scotland above elsewhere normal
NOV N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal DEC N Ireland and NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JAN E Scotland and E England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: W Eire below elsewhere normal
NOV S Eire, SW Egland, SW and NW Wales, N England and S Scotland below elsewhere normal DEC S and SE England, N and NW England, S and W Scotland, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal JAN E Scotland, Wales and S half of England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210916
TEMP: Season: Eire and W of N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
NOV Midlands, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal DEC N and E Scotland, E of England and W of Eire normal elsewhere above JAN W Scotland and W Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: N Scotland, E of England and SW and W Eire normal elsewhere above
NOV S Eire and S England below elsewhere normal DEC Scotland W Eire and SE Midlands/London area normal elsewhre above JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150916
TEMP: Season: normal but above in far SE England
NOV normal but SE England above DEC normal JAN Wales, Midlands and all S of England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in N Ireland, NE Eire, S Wales and all S of England
NOV normal but SW England, far N England and S Scotland above normal DEC normal but all W and SW Scotland below normal JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100916
TEMP: Season: S Wales, Midlands and S of England above elsewhere normal
NOV normal but Scotland above normal DEC normal JAN above normal but N half Scotland and SW Eire normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England, S of England and S Midlands,N Ireland and much of Eire except SE Eire.
NOV normal but NW Scotland above DEC N Scotland below SW England and SE England above elsewhere normal JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010919
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV locally normal S and W Eire and central S England elsewhere above normal DEC above or well above normal JAN normal for Eire, N Ireland S Scotland elsewhere above
PPN: Season: N half Scotland, N Ireland and Eire (except the S) normal elsewhere above
NOV N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal DEC N Ireland, N Eire, N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN SE England above SW Eire below elsewhere normal



USA - IRI - 150916 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal 50 to 60% prob but for SE of England no signal similar probs for above/normal/below and for far SE England below normal (40% prob)
PPN : no signal similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal (1 to 1.5C) JAN Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
NOV Below normal except far N/N of Scotland DEC S Eire, Wales and SW England below elsewhere above JAN N Scotland normal or above elsewhere below normal



UKMO - 120916
TEMP: Normal or above normal most likely. Above normal probable in SE and below normal possible in far N Scotland. Enhanced probs for well above normal across England and Wales.
PPN : ABove normal most likely, locally normal. Less than 20% prob for below normal in most areas. Enhanced probs for well above normal.
PSML: near normal likely. N England may see below or well below normal pressure.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060916
TEMP: Season slightly above normal
NOV Above normal DEC Eire, N Ireland, Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal JAN normal or slightly above
PPN : Season Below normal in England and Wales elsewhere normal
NOV SE Eire, Wales, England and S Scotland below normal, elsewhere normal but N Scotland above DEC England and Wales below normal elsewhere normal JAN normal perhaps below in NW Scotland
250hPa height anomaly:
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal JAN Above normal


CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal JAN normal
PPN :
NOV Central and E Scotland above. SW and S Eire S Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal DEC above normal especially in S. Far NW Scotland normal. JAN normal locally above in NE Englnd SW England and most of Eire





WINTER 2016 DEC 2017 JAN FEB


Comment - 030916 early September data suggests no change to mild winter forcast. Summary - 150916 - Temperature above normal for season may be near normal in December and milder in Feb. Precip above normal in S but the north normal to below. Increased snow risk for hills in N of UK decreased risk elsewhere.
For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270916
TEMP: Season:E Scotlamd , N England and E England above elsewhere normal
DEC N Ireland and NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JAN E Scotland and E England above normal elsewhere normal FEB N Scotland, SE Scotland and E and NE England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: SW England above. W Eire, W Scotland below elsewhere normal
DEC S and SE England, N and NW England, S and W Scotland, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal JAN E Scotland, Wales and S half of England above elsewhere normal FEB SW England above but W Eire, N Ireland, N and NW Scotland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210916
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC N and E Scotland, E of England and W of Eire normal elsewhere above JAN W Scotland and W Eire normal elsewhere above FEB above normal
PPN: Season: ab ove normal but parts of E Midlands and N half Scotland normal
DEC Scotland W Eire and SE Midlands/London area normal elsewhre above JAN above normal FEB normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150916
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SE England
DEC normal JAN Wales, Midlands and all S of England above elsewhere normal FEB above normal locally normal in SW England
PPN: Season: normal but above in N Ireland, parts of Eire and all of SE, S and SW England
DEC normal but all W and SW Scotland below normal JAN above normal FEB normal locally below in NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100916
TEMP: Season: Normal for N Ireland, Eire, Scotland except E Scotland, N England elsewhere above normal
DEC normal JAN above normal but N half Scotland and SW Eire normal FEB Eire, N Ireland Wales and SW England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal but SW England above
DEC N Scotland below SW England and SE England above elsewhere normal JAN above normal FEB N Scotland below SW England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010919
TEMP: Season: season above normal especially SE
DEC above or well above normal JAN normal for Eire, N Ireland S Scotland elsewhere above FEB above normal, well above in S
PPN: Season: season NW Scotland, N Ireland and N two third Eire normal elsewhere above
DEC N Ireland, N Eire, N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN SE England above SW Eire below elsewhere normal FEB above normal



USA - IRI - 150916 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal 40% prob
PPN : no signal similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal (1 to 1.5C) JAN Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
DEC S Eire, Wales and SW England below elsewhere above JAN N Scotland normal or above elsewhere below normal FEB Below normal



UKMO - 120916 Possible enhanced snow risk for hills in Scotland, N ireland and N England compared to normal
TEMP: Similar probs for above and below normal BUT enhanced probs for well below in Eire and NW Scotland and for well above in other areas but also with some overlap.
PPN : SW UK near normal, E above, elsewhere similar probs for above/norma/below but with enhanced probs of the risk of above normal
PSML: near normal, chance of below. 500hPa heights


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060916 (drier start to winter)
TEMP: Season slightly above normal
DEC Eire, N Ireland, Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal JAN normal or slightly above FEB Above normal
PPN : Season normal
DEC England and Wales below normal elsewhere normal JAN normal perhaps below in NW Scotland FEB slightly above normal but S Wales and SW England above normal
250hPa height anomaly:
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB SE above normal but strongly enhanced Atlantic jet towards NW UK.


CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN normal FEB normal
PPN :
DEC above normal especially in S. Far NW Scotland normal. JAN normal locally above in NE Englnd SW England and most of Eire FEB normal but SW Eire below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080916 - output may not be mild enough.
TEMP: Season: 50 to 60% prob of above normal

PPN: Season: Scotland near normal elsewhere 40 to 50% prob of slightly above normal


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - availale by 18th
TEMP: season - slightly above normal
DEC slightly above normal JAN slightly above normal FEB SW Eire and SW England near normal elsewhere slightly above normal

PPN: season - near normal
DEC near normal JAN near normal perhaps above in far S FEB near normal



Graphics 090916
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP not available

CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS: not available



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly








2017 JAN FEB MAR


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270916
TEMP: Season: Scotland, N and E England above elsewhere normal
JAN E Scotland and E England above normal elsewhere normal FEB N Scotland, SE Scotland and E and NE England above normal elsewhere normal MAR Wales Scotland and England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: Wales, SW and S of England above elsewhere normal
JAN E Scotland, Wales and S half of England above elsewhere normal FEB SW England above but W Eire, N Ireland, N and NW Scotland below elsewhere normal MAR N Ireland, NW Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210916
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN W Scotland and W Eire normal elsewhere above FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN: Season: S and SW ENgland, Wales SW Scotland and NW England also most of Eire above normal elsewhere normal
JAN above normal FEB normal MAR normal but S and W Eire above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150916
TEMP: Season: Above normal locally normal in NW Scotland, W of N IReland and most of Eire except the E.
JAN Wales, Midlands and all S of England above elsewhere normal FEB above normal locally normal in SW England MAR above normal but N Ireland and most of Eire normal
PPN: Season: Above normal in Eire and all S of England
JAN above normal FEB normal locally below in NE Scotland MAR normal locally above in E Midlands and parts of SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100916
TEMP: Season: N IReland and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal but SW England and SW Eire above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010919
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above




Korea APCC - 260916
Temp: Season above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN : Season near normal but above in England and Wales
JAN near normal locally above in East FEB near normal locally above in England and Wales MAR near normal



USA - IRI - 150916 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: S of England and E of Eire no signal similar probs for above/normal/below. Elsewhere above normal 40% prob midlands and W Eire to 50% in North UK.
PPN : no signal similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal but only slightly in S
JAN Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal l
PPN:Season: N Scotland above but elsewhere below
JAN N Scotland normal or above elsewhere below normal FEB Below normal MAR S and SE normal elsewhere above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060916
TEMP: Season Above normal
JAN normal or slightly above FEB Above normal MAR Above normal
PPN : Season slightly above normal but E of UK normal
JAN normal perhaps below in NW Scotland FEB slightly above normal but S Wales and SW England above normal MAR above normal
250hPa height anomaly:
JAN Above normal FEB SE above normal but strongly enhanced Atlantic jet towards NW UK. MAR SE above normal but strongly enhanced Atlantic jet towards UK


CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB normal MAR normal
PPN :
JAN normal locally above in NE Englnd SW England and most of Eire FEB normal but SW Eire below MAR normal





2017 FEB MAR APR


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270916
TEMP: Season: normal but locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: SW England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210916
TEMP: Season: Above normnal but N Ireland and Eire normal
PPN: Season: SW England and S Wales ahove elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150916
TEMP: Season: abve normal locally normal in SW and NW Eire
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 100916
TEMP: Season:SW England, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010919
TEMP: Season: N Scotland normal elsewhere above.
PPN: Season: Midlands and SE England also N Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere abive



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: SE England N England and S Scotland below normal elsewhere above normal
FEB Below normal MAR S and SE normal elsewhere above normal APR ar S normal or below elsewhere above normal especially the N



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060916
TEMP:
FEB Above normal MAR Above normal APR Above normal
PPN :
FEB slightly above normal but S Wales and SW England above normal MAR above normal APR normal but below in SW England
250hPa height anomaly:
FEB SE above normal but strongly enhanced Atlantic jet towards NW UK. MAR SE above normal but strongly enhanced Atlantic jet towards UK APR above normal trough to W of UK


CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal APR Eire and SW England normal eslewhere above normal
PPN :
FEB normal but SW Eire below MAR normal APR below normal





Spring 2017 MAR APR MAY


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 270916
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but E England above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210916
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150916
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Scotland NW England parts of Wales and parts of SW, S and SE of England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Cornwall most of Eire and S Scotland.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060916
TEMP:
MAR Above normal APR Above normal MAY Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN :
MAR above normal APR normal but below in SW England MAY normal
250hPa height anomaly:
MAR SE above normal but strongly enhanced Atlantic jet towards UK APR above normal trough to W of UK MAY above normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY normal in N elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but far SE England below
MAR S and SE normal elsewhere above normal APR ar S normal or below elsewhere above normal especially the N MAY Below normal in Eire, N Ireland, N Scotland and far SE England elsewhere above



CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
MAR normal APR Eire and SW England normal eslewhere above normal MAY normal
PPN :
MAR normal APR below normal MAY above normal but far SE England normal





2017 APR MAY JUN


CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
APR Eire and SW England normal eslewhere above normal MAY normal JUN normal but SE England above
PPN :
APR below normal MAY above normal but far SE England normal JUN normal b ut far NW Scotland above and most of England and Wales (except SW) below J



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
APR above normal MAY normal in N elsewhere above normal JUN normal or slightly below J
PPN: Season: above normal
APR ar S normal or below elsewhere above normal especially the N MAY Below normal in Eire, N Ireland, N Scotland and far SE England elsewhere above JUN above normal but N Scotland below





2017 MAY JUN JUL


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly above normal
MAY normal in N elsewhere above normal JUN normal or slightly below JUL above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales above elsewhere below normal
MAY Below normal in Eire, N Ireland, N Scotland and far SE England elsewhere above JUN above normal but N Scotland below JUL below normal especially in the N



CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal but SE England above JUL above normal S Scotland, England and Wales except Devon and Cornwall, elsewhere normal
PPN :
MAY above normal but far SE England normal JUN normal b ut far NW Scotland above and most of England and Wales (except SW) below JUL normal locally above in N Ireland





2017 JUN JUL AUG


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN normal or slightly below JUL above normal AUG N normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: S Eire, England and Wales above elsewhere below normal
JUN above normal but N Scotland below JUL below normal especially in the N AUG below normal



CanSIPS 310816
TEMP:
JUN normal but SE England above JUL above normal S Scotland, England and Wales except Devon and Cornwall, elsewhere normal AUG normal but SE England above
PPN :
JUN normal but far NW Scotland above and most of England and Wales (except SW) below JUL normal locally above in N Ireland AUG normal locally above in W Wales





2017 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140916 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL above normal AUG N normal elsewhere above normal SEP above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUL below normal especially in the N AUG below normal SEP England and Wales below normal elsewhere above



NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


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