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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - AUGUST 2015 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 250915. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


SEPTEMBER data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates).

Data sources available date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010915 090915 120915 230915), Russia 310815, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090915, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 090915, NMME and CFS2 graphics 090915 (1 deg grib UK Graphic 170915), Japan JMA 100915, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 130915, UKMO seasonal 140915, International IMME 160915, BCC China 160915, USA - IRI 180915, Korea APCC 250915, UKMO contingency 290915.





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



OCT NOV DEC 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment - 250915 - APCC Korea also suggests above normal rain for Nov and Dec.
Comment - 190915 - looking at 30 day model runs it seems possible that the wetter than normal period might start mid to late October
Comment - 160915 - BCC China and IMME suport the wetter than normal theme and normal to milder temps in S and SE
Summary - 140915 - Several models suggest below normal temperatures in western areas (of UK and Eire) with near normal elsewhere although these are balanced by those indicating above normal especially for S and E of England. Near or above normal temps seem most likely for S and E of UK elsewhere near normal or a little below (1981-2010 averages probably above the 1961-1990 period.) A cooling trend compared to normal seems possible later in period.
Most output suggests above normal precipitation especially in the S and W of UK. This fits fairly well the El Nino stats shown below.


Comment 140915 main caution is continuing below normal Atlantic Sea Temps which may be part of longer term change (see UKMO changes in climate system PDF)

Comment UKMO 14095 also suggests enhanced upper winds indicative of mobile pattern simlar to CFS2

Comment CFS2 020915 suggests strongly Enhanced Atlantic Jet towards, starting OCT but mainly for Nov and Dec - possible stormy period of S and W UK.

IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - 020915 - suggest possible less precipitation for NW/W Scotland but increased rainfall for SW of UK.IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230915
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/-0.5C)
OCT near normal NOV above normal DEC Wales and S half of England above elsewhere near normal
PPN: Season: above normal but near normal for N and E Scotland and NE England
OCT near normal but above in W Wales and W Scotland NOV above normal but near normal for N and E Scotland, NE and E England DEC above normal but near normal for NE and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120915
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above normal elsewhere normal
OCT normal NOV S Scotland S Eire England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal DEC above normal, well above in S
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT Wales and S half England plus most of Eire above elsewhere normal NOV NE Scotland normal elsewhere above DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN above normal FEB Most of Eire, Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal MAR NW Scotland, England, Wales and southern Eire above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080915
TEMP: Season: above normal especially in S
OCT normal NOV above normal especially in S DEC above or well above normal JAN above normal especially England and Wales FEB near normal slightly above in far SE.
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT near normal buit above in far SW Eire and below in far SE England NOV above or well above normal DEC above or well above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010915 strongly Enhanced Atlantic Jet towards, starting OCT but mainly for Nov and Dec - possible stormy period of S and W UK.
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in N/NE Scotland, N Ireland and Eire except the SE corner.
OCT normal NOV above normal especially in S DEC above normal, well above in Wales and S half of England
PPN: Season: above normal especially in W
OCT above normal NOV above normal, well above for SW Scotland SW England and SW Eire DEC above normal, well above in most western areas.




UKMO contingency planners 280915
TEMP: UKMO says large uncertainty for Oct with similar probs for above and below normal but for OND above normal favoured and with slightly enhanced probs for well above normal.
OCT: looking at the distribution it looks like there are three clusters one sightly below, one slightly above and one a little more above normal. Overall then above normal may be a slightly more likely outcome but note most solutions are cooler than the last two years.
SEASON OND: looking at the distribution it looks like there are two clusters one near normal and the other slightly above hence slightly above normal is more likely but note note most solutions are cooler than the last two years OND - so slightly above the 61-90 averages.
PPN: UKMO says large uncertainty for Oct with distribution similar to the observered year on year variability but with enhanced probs that OND will be wetter than normal.
OCT: minimal clustering near or slightly below normal the majority of solutions being less wet than the last two years. Hence near or a little below normal is possible.
SEASON OND: signal for above or well above normal but most solutions are slightly less wet than the last 3 OND seasons. However should OCT be below normal this mey result in a much wetter Nov or Dec.



Korea APCC - 250915
Temp: Season Eire below normal far SE slightly above elsewhere no signal above/normal/below
OCT no signal above/normal/below but far NE slightly above and cooler to west of Eire NOV no signal above/normal/below but far NE slightly above and cooler to west of Eire DEC Eire below normal elsewhere no signal above/normal/below
PPN : Season 40-50% prob for above normal 50-60% Wales and SW England
OCT normal but Scotland and N Ireland above NOV 40-50% prob for above normal but 50-60% SW England DEC 40-50% prob for above normal


USA - IRI - 180915 - Forecasts tends to be overly warm. Highest score for accuracy are when forecasting below normal.
Temp: Above normal typically 40% prob but 50% for Cornwall, W Eire and N and W Scotland and 80% in NW Scotland. Probs for below normal 20 to 25% but only 5% in N Scotland.
PPN : No signal due to similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 160915 run from 1st of month
TEMP: Season: Below normal N England and most of Scotland except far N. Eire and N Ireland undefinded. Wales and elsewhere in England above normal.
PPN: Season: above normal all areas but less so in E


UKMO - 140915
TEMP: Near normal strongest signal but perhaps above in E of England and risk of below in Eire, SW Cornwall and W Scotland. Slightly enhanced probabilities for well above normal in Central and E England.
PPN : Near normal NE Scotland and SE England elsewhere enhanced probs for above normal. Strongly enhanced probs for well above normal across S of Eire and into SW Wales and generally enhanced for well above normal SW Scotland, NW England, Wales and W parts of N Ireland and N parts of SW England.
PSML: below normal more likely than above with stongest signal to NW of UK with enhanced upper flow towards UK points to even more unsettled than normal.


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 130915
Temp: below normal but far NE Scotland normal
PPN : normal but above normal for N Ireland, E Eire, W Scotland and Wales
PMSL: a little below normal but Eire and some western parts of UK a little above
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: below normal
PPN : normal but above normal for Eire, N Ireland, Wales, S and W of England also W Scotland


Japan JMA (early issue 030915 ? available 100915)
Temp: Season slightly below normal
OCT slightly below normal NOV England slightly above elsewhere slightly below normal DEC slightly below normal
PPN : Season slightly above normal
OCT slightly below normal in E England elsewhere slightly above NOV slightly above normal DEC slightly above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (W mean)
OCT below normal (WSW) NOV below normal (W) DEC below normal (WSW)


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090915
TEMP: Season near normal
OCT England, Wales and S Eire normal, elsewhere above especially Scotland NOV near normal DEC Eire below normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season W Scotland, Eire, SW England and W Wales above normal elsewhere normal
OCT N and W Eire and NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal NOV Far E of England below normal, Eire, W Cornwall and W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal DEC SW England above normal elsewhere normal


Russia 310815
Temp: Below normal for Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland and perhaps far W Wales and Cornwall elsewhere near normal
PPN : Above normal for SE England, Scotland, N Ireland and E Eire and NW Wales elsewhere near normal, far SE may be slightly above




The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090915
TEMP: SEASON: SE third of UK above normal elsewhere normal but risk below in far W. SEE charts below for month by month data.

PPN: SEASON: NE near normal elsehere above strongest signal in SW UK - SEE charts below for month by month data.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 160915

TEMP: SEASON: near normal (+/-0.25C anom) but SE England above normal. Below normal to W of Eire.
OCT near normal but SE England above normal NOV near normal but SE England above normal DEC above normal but W half Eire normal JAN normal but SE England above FEB normal but SE England above
PPN: SEASON: Above normal most areas epecially S and W.
OCT normal but SW England and SW Wales above NOV above normal (less so in E) DEC above normal but central and E England and E Scotland normal JAN above normal but some NE parts normal FEB normal perhaps above in SE



Graphics 090915
CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN


((WARNING NMME mins in error due to problems with mins in NCAR_CCSM4 model - all way to cold except in the warm seas which has impacted on the averaging.
Model has been corrected 150915 but no updates to NMME published as yet.))





NMME TEMP:




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly data from NOAA NCEP CPC server 170915


NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:



Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) data from NOAA NCEP CPC server 170915



NOV DEC 2016 JAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - 140915 - Predominatly unsettled types. Fair agreement for above normal precipition especially across S half of area (UK and Eire). Temperature less clear cut S and E of England most likely to be above normal. Some N and W areas may trend below normal later in period. Possibly increased snow risk for northern areas later in period associated with temp trend.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230915
TEMP: Season: above normal but near normal for N half Scotland, N Ireland and N half of Eire
NOV above normal DEC Wales and S half of England above elsewhere near normal JAN normal but above normal for Wales, most of England and central areas of Eire
PPN: Season: above normal but near normal for NE Scotland
NOV above normal but near normal for N and E Scotland, NE and E England DEC above normal but near normal for NE and E Scotland JAN above normal but near normal for NE and SE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120915
TEMP: Season: above normal strongest signal S England where 1 to 2 C anomaly
NOV S Scotland S Eire England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal DEC above normal, well above in S JAN Eire, N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal - well above normal SW UK SW Eire and W Central Scotland
NOV NE Scotland normal elsewhere above DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080915
TEMP: Season: above normal especially Wales and S half of England
NOV above normal especially in S DEC above or well above normal JAN above normal especially England and Wales
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV above or well above normal DEC above or well above normal JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010915
TEMP: Season: above normal especially Wales and S half of England
NOV above normal especially in S DEC above normal, well above in Wales and S half of England JAN above normal, well above in S of England
PPN: Season: above normal, well above in western areas
NOV above normal, well above for SW Scotland SW England and SW Eire DEC above normal, well above in most western areas JAN above normal but locally normal in SE Eire.



Korea APCC - 250915
TEMP:
NOV no signal above/normal/below but far NE slightly above and cooler to west of Eire DEC Eire below normal elsewhere no signal above/normal/below JAN no signal above/normal/below
PPN:
NOV 40-50% prob for above normal but 50-60% SW England DEC 40-50% prob for above normal JAN no signal above/normal/below but far NW slightly below normal


USA - IRI - 180915 - Forecasts tends to be overly warm. Highest score for accuracy are when forecasting below normal.
Temp: above normal 40% prob most areas, Scotland 45 % and in the N of Scotland 65% (represents reduced probs compared to previous season)
PPN : W Eire above normal 40% prob. Elsewhere no signal due to similar probs for above/normal/below


TEMP: Season: N half Scotland below normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: above normal (high probs) but less so in SE England


UKMO - 140915 - hints at increased snowfall risk across northern UK.
TEMP: Cooling trend with increased probs for below normal temps except in NE and SE of UK. Slightly enhanced probs for well below normal over parts of Eire/N Ireland and W/central Scotland.
PPN : Enhanced probs for above normal across Eire, Wales, SW Scotland and much of England. Enhanced probs for well above normal acorss parts of Eire, Wales and England but enhanced probs for well below normal across parts of Scotland.
PSML: below normal more likely than above and possibly well below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090915
TEMP: Season near normal
NOV near normal DEC Eire below normal elsewhere above JAN most areas slightly below normal
PPN : Season normal but chance that SW England is above normal
NOV Far E of England below normal, Eire, W Cornwall and W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal DEC SW England above normal elsewhere normal JAN normal but Scotland, Eire and W Wales below normal



Winter DEC 2015 JAN FEB 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comment - 250915 - APCC Korea also suggests above normal rain for Nov and Dec and hints at drier in NW later into winter.
Comment 180915 - IRI although typically too warm does indicate cooling trend compared to normal from season to season perhaps implying that part of the latter half of winter period could see below normal temperatures perhaps more likely in N than in S.

Summary - 160915 - Perhaps less frequent low pressures crossing Atlantic towards UK in latter part of period than at the start. Temperature near normal or colder in N and W but elsewhere normal or a little above normal - above normal may be confined to SE. Precipitation above normal in many areas to start winter but perhaps less so in the N later (Feb perhaps parts of Jan) although the S may remain with above normal precip. Increased snow risk possible for northern half of UK due to cooling temperature trend compared to normal. Normal snow risk in S below normal risk in S/SE England.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230915
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/-0.5C)but Wales and S half od England above
DEC Wales and S half of England above elsewhere near normal JAN normal but above normal for Wales, most of England and central areas of Eire FEB near normal but parts of S England above
PPN: Season: above normal but near normal for N and E Scotland and NE England
DEC above normal but near normal for NE and E Scotland JAN above normal but near normal for NE and SE Scotland FEB near normal but locally below in E Wales, and W/NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120915
TEMP: Season: S Scotland England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
DEC above normal, well above in S JAN Eire, N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB Wales and S half England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN above normal FEB Most of Eire, Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080915
TEMP: Season: above normal especially in S
DEC above or well above normal JAN above normal especially England and Wales FEB near normal slightly above in far SE.
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
DEC above or well above normal JAN above normal FEB Wales and England above normal, W Scotland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010915
TEMP: Season: N Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal - well above normal in S of UK
DEC above normal, well above in Wales and S half of England JAN above normal, well above in S of England FEB normal but Wales and S half of England above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal - well above in western areas
DEC above normal, well above in most western areas JAN above normal but locally normal in SE Eire. FEB normal in N Eire, N Ireland and N Scotland elsewhere above normal



Korea APCC - 250915
TEMP:
DEC Eire below normal elsewhere no signal above/normal/below JAN no signal above/normal/below FEB no signal above/normal/below
PPN:
DEC 40-50% prob for above normal JAN no signal above/normal/below but far NW slightly below normal FEB no signal above/normal/below


USA - IRI - 180915 - Forecasts tends to be overly warm. Highest score for accuracy are when forecasting below normal.
Temp: Above normal probs 40% for most of UK. Prob for below normal 25%
PPN : No signal due to similar probs for above/normal/below


TEMP: Season: slightly above normal but NE Scotland below normal
PPN: Season: above normal


UKMO - 140915 suggests increased snow risk of N half of UK.
TEMP: SE England near normal but elsewhere increased risk of below normal temps, possibly well below in N and W (UK and Eire).
PPN : near normal but risk of below normal in N but still enhanced probs for well above normal across Eire, Wales and W of England.
PSML: possible near normal most likely but the N trending to have less low pressure.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090915
TEMP: Season below normal
DEC Eire below normal elsewhere above JAN most areas slightly below normal FEB below normal (-0.5to-1C)
PPN : Season normal but chance that SW England is above normal
DEC SW England above normal elsewhere normal JAN normal but Scotland, Eire and W Wales below normal FEB normal but S of England above normal



IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - 020915 - increased risk of above normal rain especially for parts of England, N Ireland and SW Scotland.IRI climate impacts.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 160915

TEMP: SEASON: near normal (+/-0.25C anom) but SE England above normal.
DEC above normal but W half Eire normal JAN normal but SE England above FEB normal but SE England above
PPN: SEASON: Above normal but normal for NE England and Central and N Scotland
DEC above normal but central and E England and E Scotland normal JAN above normal but some NE parts normal FEB normal perhaps above in SE

Graphics 090915
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN


((WARNING NMME mins in error due to problems with mins in NCAR_CCSM4 model - all way to cold except in the warm seas which has impacted on the averaging))




NMME TEMP:




UK area Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN mean anomaly




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:





2016 JAN FEB MAR ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230915
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/-0.5C) but S of England above
JAN normal but above normal for Wales, most of England and central areas of Eire FEB near normal but parts of S England above MAR near normal
PPN: Season: near normal but locally above in E of England
JAN above normal but near normal for NE and SE Scotland FEB near normal but locally below in E Wales, and W/NW Scotland MAR near normal but lovally above in far E of England and far NW Scotland and below normal in SW Scotland, SW England and most of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120915
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above normal elsewhere normal
JAN Eire, N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above FEB Wales and S half England above normal elsewhere normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: NE England and Scotland normal elsewhere above
JAN above normal FEB Most of Eire, Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal MAR NW Scotland, England, Wales and southern Eire above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080915
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: Eire, NW Scotland Wales and England above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010915
TEMP: Season: normal but Wales and S half of England above normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



USA - IRI - 180915 - Forecasts tends to be overly warm. Highest score for accuracy are when forecasting below normal.
Temp: 40% prob for above normal in N half Scotland (50% in far N) and W half Eire elsewhere similar probs for normal/above/below
PPN : No signal due to similar probs for above/normal/below


TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: above normal across S half of area and perhaps far NW Scotland elsewhere normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090915
TEMP: Season below normal
JAN most areas slightly below normal FEB below normal (-0.5to-1C) MAR below normal (-0.5to-1C)
PPN : Season normal but far NW below and far SW above
JAN normal but Scotland, Eire and W Wales below normal FEB normal but S of England above normal MAR normal but NW Scotland below normal



2016 FEB MAR APR ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230915
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN: Season: near normal locally above normal in far SE

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120915
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN: Season: East Eire, Wales and most of England above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080915
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: E Eire, England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010915
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland, N Eire and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



BCC China - 160915 run from 1st of month
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but parts of N and NE drier and parts of far S above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090915
TEMP:
FEB below normal (-0.5to-1C) MAR below normal (-0.5to-1C) APR near normal, Scotland slightly below
PPN :
FEB normal but S of England above normal MAR normal but NW Scotland below normal APR NW Scotland and NW Eire below normal elsewhere normal



Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 140915 limited data - Colder than normal start to spring near normal May. Precip near normal becoming above normal in S later.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230915
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN: Season: above normal but near normal for most of Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland and N England also NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120915
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN: Season: above normal (highest anoms Wales and England around 50mm above normal)



BCC China - 160915 run from 1st of month
TEMP: Season: above normal but less so in N Scotland - trends colder later in Spring
PPN: Season: N above normal S and SW of area above normal elsewhere normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090915
TEMP:
MAR below normal (-0.5to-1C) APR near normal, Scotland slightly below MAY near normal but slightly above in N.
PPN :
MAR mainly normal but NW Scotland below normal APR NW Scotland and NW Eire below normal elsewhere normal MAY normal but S of England above and NW Scotlnd below



late Spring/early summer 2016 MAY JUN JUL ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 160915 run from 1st of month
TEMP: Season: below normal
PPN: Season: N below normal S above normal


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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