SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - September 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 301018(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
COMPLETE Not available South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 also E3 graphics and Temp graphs (011018 161018 231018), CANSIP 011018, Russia 171018, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 171018, UKMO seasonal 111018, Japan JMA 081018, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and International IMME 151018, NMME and CFS2 graphics 171018, ECMWF monthly 171018, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 171018, BCC China 171018, KMA 171018, JAMSTEC 171018, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 171018, USA - IRI 171018, Korea APCC 241018, UKMO Contingency 291018.
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO intermodel comparison ENSO CFS latest

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN

Summary - 171018 - consensus is for above normal temperature for the season with some variation hinting at nearer normal values in the north. Main indication for above normal rainfall especially in the N and W there are hints at nearer normal in parts of far NE and S/SE where some months may have below normal rain. (The ECMWF monthly data has a different rainfall patterns with stronger drier signal in the north.) Possible enhanced jet towards UK in November but more especially in December as shown by CFS2 200hPa.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 231018
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above elsewhere normal
NOV normal DEC above normal perhaps well above in S JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC E UK normal elsewhere above normal JAN normal but above in N Ireland, Scotland N England N Wales and Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 161018
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV normal but S England above DEC above but S England well above JAN above normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal
NOV above normal DEC E England normal elsewhere above JAN Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N England above SW England and SE England below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and S England
NOV normal DEC normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland all E England and parts of Midlands
NOV above normal but normal in NE Scotland N and NE England and E Anglia DEC normal but above in EIre SW Scotland and SW England JAN above normal




UKMO contingency - 291018
TEMP: Season: UKMO - "Above average slightly more likely than below". There are four clusters one below, one well below average and the others above or well above. There are more in the well above normal range than typical. Median value almost a degree above normal. Conclusion becoming above or well above during the season.
NOV: "Above average slightly more likely than below". There are two clusters one below normal and the other above although there are more in the well above normal range than typical. Median value slightly above average.
PPN:Season: UKMO - above normal slightly more likely. There are two main clusters one below and one above with the median solution not far from average but there are less well below normal and more well above normal solutions than typical. Rainfall is often more variable than a sigle figure can represent hence a potential for parts of UK to be wetter whilst others probably the south, near or below averager.
NOV: UKMO - Above and below similar probs. The median solution is only slightly above average but there are more solutions showning above or well above than below average.



Korea APCC - 241018
Temp: Season NW no signal elsewhere above
NOV no signal DEC NW normal, SE above elsewhere no signal JAN mostly above normal
PPN : Season no signal
NOV no signal DEC no signal JAN no signal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 171018
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: S/SE England above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN: N no signal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: no signal but chance of below in S
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: no signal hint of cooler in W Eire
PPN: N below S above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal perhaps normal in N
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: S England and Eire above perhaps UQ, elsewehere no signal or near normal
PPN: above normal possibly UQ
PMSL: below normal especially in N
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: S England and Eire above perhaps UQ, elsewehere no signal or near normal
PPN: above normal possible UQ but far N no sigal
PMSL: below normal es[ecially in S



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 171018
Temp: no signal
PPN : S/SE Eire Wales SW England, Isle of Man and far W coasts of NW England above normal elsewhere no signal



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 171018 - .
TEMP: normal
NOV normal DEC normal S England above JAN normal
PPN : Season normal but Wales, W EIre and NW Scotland below
NOV below DEC normal JAN below
PMSL: Season normal locally above in far NW
NOV normal but above in E DEC below JAN above esp[ecially in W

BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV SW normal elsewhere above DEC above JAN above
PPN: Season: below normal
NOV below DEC W below E above JAN below



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 171018
Temp: W normal E above
PPN : NE normal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: below or well below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : N normal elsewhere above




ECMWF - monthly - 171018 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
NOV near normal but below in NW Scotland and NW Eire DEC normal but below in Eire, S Scotland Midlands N Wales and N England JAN above normal but normal in Wales S Enfland N Ireland and W Eire
PPN:
NOV above normal but below in NW Scotland and W Eire DEC BElow normal but above in SE THIRD of England and SE Eire JAN below normal but locally above in SE Eire and Salisbury Plain area



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 081018
Temp: Season above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN : Season above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PMSL: Season below normal WSW
NOV belopw normal (WSW) DEC below normal (W) JAN S below N above (WSW)



UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 111018
TEMP: slightly higher probs for above normal than below
PPN : Eire and W UK above normal elsewhere normal more likely.
PSML: chance of slightly above normal in S and slightly below in N otherwise normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 171018
TEMP:
NOV near normal DEC near normal locally below in S JAN normal but above in England, Wales and central Eire
PPN :
NOV S normal elsewhere above DEC Below in Eire, Wales NW England and W Scotland elsewhere normal JAN above normal



Russia 171018
Temp: Eire and NW UK below elsewhere normal or no signal
PPN : no signal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
NOV normal but England and Wales above DEC normal but SE England above JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV normal but central and SE England above DEC N Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN normal locally below in far SW England and SW Eire



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 101018
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: above normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151018
TEMP: season - above normal;
PPN rate: season - Eire, S and W UK above elsewhere normal



NMME Graphics

CFS2 MAX and MIN
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly 121018
200


2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - 171018 - Milder than average winter epsecially especially in the south but probably nearer normal in the north. (Precipitation large differences in model output). Wetter than average but perhaps drier in February. Snow near normal in the north (may be more in Decelmer in N), reduced snowfall in the south. May be stormy across Uk in December due to enhanced jet (see 200hpa) but possibly more blocked in February.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 231018
TEMP: Season: N Scotland and W Eire above normal elsewhere normal
DEC above normal perhaps well above in S JAN above normal FEB normal but above in SE England
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC E UK normal elsewhere above normal JAN normal but above in N Ireland, Scotland N England N Wales and Cornwall FEB normal locally above in Aberdeenshire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 161018
TEMP: Season: above normal locally well above near S coast England
DEC above but S England well above JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normnal but normal in NE Scotland Wales S Midlands and S England
DEC E England normal elsewhere above JAN Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N England above SW England and SE England below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and S England
DEC normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal N Ireland and W Eire
DEC normal but above in EIre SW Scotland and SW England JAN above normal FEB normal but above in Wales N England S Scotland W Eire.



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 171018
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: SE above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN: S above normal
PMSL: below normal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: no signal
PPN: no signal but N below normal
PMSL: SW below normal elsewhere no signal
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal but far N no signal
PPN: N no signal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: below normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: far NW below far SE above elsewhere no signal
PPN: bove normal but far N no signal
PMSL: below normal



USA - IRI - 171018
Temp: no signal
PPN : N and NE Scotland and far NE England no signal elsewhere below normal



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 171018
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: N below S above



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 171018
Temp: W normal E above
PPN : Eirem W Scotland and SE England above elsewhere normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : Normal but Eire, N Ireland SW and SE England abov3



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above JAN above FEB above
PPN: Season: below normal but N Scotland above
DEC W below E above JAN below FEB N Scotland above elsewhere below




ECMWF - monthly - 171018 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
DEC normal but below in Eire, S Scotland Midlands N Wales and N England JAN above normal but normal in Wales S Enfland N Ireland and W Eire FEB above normal but normal in N Scotland N Ireland and Eire
PPN:
DEC BElow normal but above in SE THIRD of England and SE Eire JAN below normal but locally above in SE Eire and Salisbury Plain area FEB N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 111018
TEMP: above normal especially in S, N may be nearer normal
PPN : Hint at above normal in Eire and W UK elsewhere normal or no signal.
PSML: no strong signal hint of deeper lows to N



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 171018
TEMP:
DEC near normal locally below in S JAN normal but above in England, Wales and central Eire FEB near normal
PPN :
DEC Below in Eire, Wales NW England and W Scotland elsewhere normal JAN above normal FEB above normal



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
DEC normal but SE England above JAN above normal FEB normal but Scotland above normal
PPN :
DEC N Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN normal locally below in far SW England and SW Eire FEB below normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 101018
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN rate: normal
.



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151018
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: season - SW Uk and SW Eire above elsewhere normal



NMME Graphics

CFS2 MAX and MIN
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly
200



2019 JAN FEB MAR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 231018
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB normal but above in SE England MAR normal
PPN:
JAN normal but above in N Ireland, Scotland N England N Wales and Cornwall FEB normal locally above in Aberdeenshire MAR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 161018
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N England above SW England and SE England below elsewhere normal FEB Eire and W Scotland above elsewhere normal MAR Eire, N Ireland E England and Wales normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR normal
PPN:
JAN above normal FEB normal but above in Wales N England S Scotland W Eire. MAR above normal but normal in S England and N Ireland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP:
JAN above FEB above MAR above
PPN:
JAN below FEB N Scotland above elsewhere below MAR below



UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 111018
TEMP: S above N normal
PPN : W and S above elsewhere normal.
PSML: S and W below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 171018
TEMP:
JAN normal but above in England, Wales and central Eire FEB near normal MAR near normal
PPN :
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB normal but Scotland above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN normal locally below in far SW England and SW Eire FEB below normal MAR normal





2019 FEB MAR APR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 231018
TEMP:
FEB normal but above in SE England MAR normal APR normal
PPN:
FEB normal locally above in Aberdeenshire MAR above normal APR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire except SW normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 161018
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR normal
PPN:
FEB Eire and W Scotland above elsewhere normal MAR Eire, N Ireland E England and Wales normal elsewhere above APR normal but above in Midlands N England and SE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and S England
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in S England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP:
FEB above MAR above APR above
PPN:
FEB N Scotland above elsewhere below MAR below APR N below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 171018
TEMP:
FEB near normal MAR near normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR England and Wales normal or above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
FEB normal but Scotland above normal MAR above normal APR normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR normal APR N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal





2019 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 141018 - Cooler than average start to Spring then recovering with above normal temperatures by May, overall season above average. Possibly a drier March and May in places especially the S/SW and perhaps the NW of UK, but a wwtter April, overall for the season not far from normal.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 231018
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in N England, S and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 161018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011018
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SE England
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland and Midlands and S England



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 171018
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: NW below elsewhere above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP: Season: above
MAR above APR above MAY above
PPN: Season: N Ireland and N Scotland above elsewhere below
MAR below APR N below elsewhere above MAY Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 171018
TEMP:
MAR near normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR above normal APR England and Wales normal or above elsewhere below MAY above normal



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal or above normal
PPN :
MAR normal APR N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal MAY normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 101018
TEMP: season - **below normal **suspect all monthly means are above normal**
PPN rate: far N below elsewhere above normal .



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 151018
TEMP: season - normal
PPN rate: season - normal



NMME Graphics

CFS2 MAX and MIN
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2019 APR MAY JUN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 231018
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 161018
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 171018
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR England and Wales normal or above elsewhere below MAY above normal JUN N England and central Eire above elsewhere normal or below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP:
APR above MAY above JUN above
PPN:
APR N below elsewhere above MAY Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below JUN N above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal or above normal JUN Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
APR N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal MAY normal JUN normal





2019 MAY JUN JUL



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP:
MAY above JUN above JUL below
PPN:
MAY Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere below JUN N above elsewhere below JUL N above elsewhere below



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
MAY normal or above normal JUN Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal JUN normal JUL below normal br>




2019 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 171018 - LIMITED DATA - Near or above normal temepratures perhaps near or a litle below normal in August. Near normal but in the south a drier start to summer but again indications of a wetter August



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 171018
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: S normal elsewhere below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP: Season: NW below elsewhere above
JUN above JUL below AUG below
PPN: Season: Eire and N UK above S below
JUN N above elsewhere below JUL N above elsewhere below AUG above



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
JUN Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal JUL below normal AUG E normal elsewhere mostly above





2019 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP:
JUL below AUG below SEP SE below elsewhere above OCT above
PPN:
JUL N above elsewhere below AUG above SEP NW below elsewhere above OCT below



CanSIPS 011018
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP normal
PPN :
JUL below normal AUG E normal elsewhere mostly above SEP normal but SW Eire below and NW Scotland above





2019 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 171018 -
TEMP:
AUG below SEP SE below elsewhere above OCT above
PPN:
AUG above SEP NW below elsewhere above OCT below





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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