SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - September 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 011117(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME comparison UKMO Tropical N Atlantic

ENSO CFS latest


Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

Not available: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF added 0411117 after end of month.


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (011017 081017 141017 221017), Russia 021017, CanSips 061017, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 081017, NMME and CFS2 graphics 101017, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 111017, UKMO seasonal 111017, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 101017, BCC China 111017, KMA 111017, JAMSEC 131017, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 151017, International IMME 161017 USA - IRI 171017, Japan JMA 191017, APCC Korea 261017,UKMO Contingency 011117 .
Data received after summary written.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th



2017 NOV DEC 2018 JAN


Summary - 161017 - Strong signal for above normal temeratures for the season but with the first hald being nearer normal and the latter half possibly well above normal although this may be delayed until January. Precipitation mostly normal or above only a few indication of below normal, mainly in first half of season.

NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221017
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal DEC Above normal, S Scotland England an Wales well above (0.5 to 1C) JAN above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal but normal in N Ireland E and S Eire NE England and NE Scotland
NOV Above normal but normal in Midlands Wales N Ireland and Eire and N half Scotland DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire N Wales and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141017
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal DEC mostl above normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland and E half England normal
NOV NE England normal elsewhere above DEC mostly above normal JAN normal but above in SW Eire S Scotland NW England Wales and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081017
TEMP: Season: N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal
NOV normal DEC normal JAN well above normal but above normal in NE Scotland
PPN: Season: Normal but above in most of Eire, Wales SW and S England
NOV normal but SW England above and Highland Scotland below DEC normal but much of Scotlnd below JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011017
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal except W Eire
NOV Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above DEC normal locally above in SE Scotland and E England JAN above but most of England well above (0.5 to 1C)
PPN: Season: Normal in NE Scotland, N Ireland and NE England, elsewhere above normal
NOV normal but above in most of Eire, SW and Central Scotland, NW England, Wales and SW England DEC normal but above normal in SE Eire S Wales and SW England JAN above normal


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs.
TN1 TN2 TN3

TN4 TN5 TN6





South Africa Weather Service SCM operational. - 041117
TEMP: Above normal
PPN: Mostly above normal



UKMO Contingency 011117
TEMP:
NOVEMBER: Despite climate signals towards colder types (La Ninam NAO QBO and MJO - see Met Office text) models predict above normal temperatures. Aprox 60% above 30% below.(
SEASON: Even strong signal for above or well above normal temepratures
PPN:
NOVEMBER: Although above average is the stated prefered solution, the distribution has reduced frequency of near normal rainfall and a similar split between above or below normal hence a similar risk for below normal rainfall.
SEASON: Slightly reduced probs for well below but increased for well above. SOme clustering either side of near normal rainfall.




Korea APCC - 261017
Temp: Season Above normal especially in N
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal JAN Above normal
PPN : Season S no signal N above normal
NOV N Scotland above normal elsewhere no signal DEC no signal JAN mostly above normal



Japan JMA (23 March 2017 - 50 member ensemble accumulated 50 members will be composed of the set of 24 members (Tuesday) and the set of 26 members (Wednesday) at 55km resolution 100 levels 0.01hPa top). Hindcast 1981-2010
Japan JMA 181017
Temp: Season Above normal
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal JAN above normal
PPN : Season Above normal
NOV SE half of England below normal elsehwere above normal DEC Above normal JAN above normal
PMSL: Season Below normal (WSW)
NOV South above (WSW) DEC Below normal (WSW) JAN below normal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 171017 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : N Scotland below normal. N Ireland, Wales and England except the N above elsewhere no signal


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 151017
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal (Mostly 0.5 to 1C) over 50% prob. UQ 30 to 50%
PPN: Mostly no signal hint of above normal NW Wales and below normal Shetland
PMSL: no signal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal but E half of England no signal
PPN: near normal but far N Scotland may be below
PMSL: no signal perhaps normal across Scotland
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal (0.5 to 1C) high probs. More than 50% prob UQ.
PPN: Normal or above normal, main risk above normal S of UK W half Eire and SW Scotland
PMSL: below normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal (0.5 to 1C) high probs.
PPN: Nw Wales and SE/E England above elsewhere no signa;
PMSL: above normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: S above elsewhere below
NOV below normal DEC N below elsewhere above JAN below normal locally above in S England



UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 111017
TEMP: Above (>80%) or well above normal (UQ >55%)
PPN : Normal or above normal. UQ >25% but in central lowland Scotland >40%
PSML: Below or well below normal but far S may be nearer normal


KMA - 111017.
TEMP :Season Above normal (0.5 to 1C anom)
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal JAN Above normal
PPN: Season England normal elsewhere above
NOV NW above elsewhere normal DEC above normal JAN NW above elsewhere normal
PMSL: Season Below normal
NOV N Below normal elsewhere normal DEC below normal JAN below normal but far S normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 111017
Temp: S normal N above normal
PPN : Midlands, Wales and N Scotland above elsewhere normal
PMSL: Below normal especially in E (and to the E)
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: Normal but far NE Scotland above
PPN : Normal but NW Scotland above and perhaps far SE England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 111017
TEMP: Season Above normal
NOV above normal DEC normal but far N Scotland above normal JAN above normal
PPN : Season Eire and Cornwall below elsewhere normal
NOV N Scotland above S Eire and SW England below, elsewhere normal DEC N Eire, N Ireland W Scotland and NW England below elsewhere normal JAN normal perghaps below in far SW England


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
NOV normal but NE Scotland above DEC Above normal JAN Above normal but W Eire normal
PPN :
NOV normal locally below in NW Scotland, N Ireland and Eire DEC Above normal JAN Above normal



Russia 021017
Temp: near normal
PPN : Below normal in SE England elsewhere no signal


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 081017
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal (.5 to 1C)

PPN: season - Mostly above but no signal in S/SW UK.




Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 161017
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN rate: season - normal


Graphics 081017
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa mean CFS2 200hPa height and height anomaly. Data 1 deg grib

200




Winter 2017 DEC 2018 JAN FEB
Summary - 161017 Strong indication across much of the UK for above normal temperature for the season although hints at December being nearer normal or only slightly above. Less strong signal over N Ireland and Eire though still favouring above normal or normal. Precipitaion as usual mixed signals for location of heavier rain but overall above normal rainfall indicated for the season. Some hints that parts of UK may see some months with below normal rainfall but no consistentcy from models or between earlier/later model runs. Height anomalies at 200hPa may suggest S could be drier which would also be suggested by IRI Statisical relationship for rain during La Nina. This statistical relationship may not hold as the La Nina expected to be fairly weak but the idea that rainfall may not be above normal for parts of the winter can be seen in some of the output.


Statistical relationship (IRI) for precipuitation during La Nina.
IRIIRI climate impacts.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221017
TEMP: Season: above normal, well above in SE England
DEC Above normal, S Scotland England an Wales well above (0.5 to 1C) JAN above normal FEB W Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland N Ireland E Eire and NE England normal elsewhere above
DEC NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JAN normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire N Wales and N England FEB Eire, N Ireland and N/NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141017
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC mostly above normal JAN above normal FEB Eire and N Ireland above normal elsewhere well above (0.5 to 1C)
PPN: Season: NE Scotland and E half England normal elsewhere above
DEC mostly above normal JAN normal but above in SW Eire S Scotland NW England Wales and SW England FEB E England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081017
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC normal JAN well above normal but above normal in NE Scotland FEB Eire and N Ireland above normal elsehere well above normal (0.5 to 1C anom)
PPN: Season: above normal but NE half of Scotland normal
DEC normal but much of Scotlnd below JAN above normal FEB Normal in NE Scotland NE England N Ireland and N Eire elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011017
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal except W Eire
DEC normal locally above in SE Scotland and E England JAN above but most of England well above (0.5 to 1C) FEB above but SE England well above (0.5 to 1C) M
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but normal in N Scotland and N Ireland
DEC normal but above normal in SE Eire S Wales and SW England JAN above normal FEB above normal but far N Scotland and N Ireland normal

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8





SAWS SCM operational. - 041117
TEMP: Above normal
PPN: Above normal


From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 171017 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Locally below in far N Scotland elsewhere no signal




Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 151017
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal 30 to 40% UQ.
PPN: England and Wales above normal elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal especially in W
PPN: No Signal but S may be below normal
PMSL: S near normal N above
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal
PPN: N normal elsewhere above
PMSL: Mostly below but S may be normal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal for many areas only slightly
PPN: Mostly above but only slightly
PMSL: S near normal elsewhere no signal


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 131017
Temp: Season: Eire/ N Ireland below normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season: Far NW above, E England below elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB below normal
PPN: Season: S above elsewhere below
DEC N below elsewhere above JAN below normal locally above in S England FEB below normal



UKMO - 111017
TEMP: Above or well above (UQ>40%)
PPN : Above normal. UQ >25%.
PSML: Below normal perhaps normal in S. UQ below normal >25%.


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 111017
Temp: S normal N above normal
PPN : Midlands, E England and N Scotland above elsewhere normal
PMSL: Below normal especially in NE (and to the E)
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: Normal but far NE Scotland above
PPN : Normal but NW Scotland above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 111017
TEMP: Season Above normal
DEC normal but far N Scotland above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN : Season normal perhaps below in far NW
DEC N Eire, N Ireland W Scotland and NW England below elsewhere normal JAN normal perghaps below in far SW England FEB normal but NW UK above



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP: Season: Above nornal but W Eire normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal but W Eire normal FEB Above normal but Cornwall Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN : Season: normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Scotland normal elsewhere below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date -
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN: season - above normal



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 161017
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN rate: season - normal




Graphics 081017
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


2018 JAN FEB MAR



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221017
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB W Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAR above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal but SE Eire, N Ireland and NE Scotland normal
JAN normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire N Wales and N England FEB Eire, N Ireland and N/NE Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141017
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB Eire and N Ireland above normal elsewhere well above (0.5 to 1C) MAR above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW England W Wales NW England S Scotland and SW Eire
JAN normal but above in SW Eire S Scotland NW England Wales and SW England FEB E England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR normal locally below in SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081017
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere well above normal
JAN well above normal but above normal in NE Scotland FEB Eire and N Ireland above normal elsehere well above normal (0.5 to 1C anom) MAR above normal but central Scotland and central England well above normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsehere above
JAN above normal FEB Normal in NE Scotland NE England N Ireland and N Eire elsewhere above normal MAR normal but SW Eire above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011017
TEMP: Season: Above normal but most of England well above
JAN above but most of England well above (0.5 to 1C) FEB above but SE England well above (0.5 to 1C) MAR above but SE Scotland and most of England well above (0.5 to 1C)
PPN: Season: mostly above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal but far N Scotland and N Ireland normal MAR normal but above in Eire, Wales, SW England, NW England and S Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB below normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN below normal locally above in S England FEB below normal MAR S below N above



UKMO - 111017
TEMP: Above normal (UT >60% UQ>25%)
PPN : Above normal (UT >40% UQ>25%)
PSML: Below normal but Eire and S half of UK similar probs for normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 111017
TEMP: Season Above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal 4
PPN : Season N Scotland above Cornwall below elsewhere normal
JAN normal perhaps below in far SW England FEB normal but NW UK above MAR normal but below in SW England and S Eire



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
JAN Above normal but W Eire normal FEB Above normal but Cornwall Eire and N Ireland normal MAR N and W normal S and E above (SW England normal)
PPN :
JAN Above normal FEB Scotland normal elsewhere below MAR S Scotland E England normal elsewhere above





2018 FEB MAR APR


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221017
TEMP: Season: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
FEB W Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAR above normal APR normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
FEB Eire, N Ireland and N/NE Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR above normal APR normal in S and E Eire most of Scotland S/SW England and E Midlands elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141017
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB Eire and N Ireland above normal elsewhere well above (0.5 to 1C) MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: normal
FEB E England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above MAR normal locally below in SW England APR normal locally below in N Half Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081017
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in S and SW England S Wales SW Scotland and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011017
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP:
FEB below normal MAR above normal APR mixed inland below elsewhere above
PPN:
FEB below normal MAR S below N above APR S above elsewhere below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 111017
TEMP: Season Above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season normal
FEB normal but NW UK above MAR normal but below in SW England and S Eire APR normal but Eire and N Ireland below



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
FEB Above normal but Cornwall Eire and N Ireland normal MAR N and W normal S and E above (SW England normal) APR NW Scotland N ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
FEB Scotland normal elsewhere below MAR S Scotland E England normal elsewhere above APR normal but below in S of England





2018 MAR APR MAY




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221017
TEMP: Season: SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: Most of Eire, N Ireland and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141017
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 081017
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 011017
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales above elsewhere below normal



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 131017
Temp: Season: N England, Scotland N Ireland and Eire below normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season: N England, Scotland N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR mixed inland below elsewhere above MAY below normal
PPN: Season: above normal
MAR S below N above APR S above elsewhere below MAY above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 111017
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal but NE Scotland normal
PPN :
MAR normal but below in SW England and S Eire APR normal but Eire and N Ireland below MAY normal but Wales and SW England below



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
MAR N and W normal S and E above (SW England normal) APR NW Scotland N ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above MAY W Scotland N ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
MAR S Scotland E England normal elsewhere above APR normal but below in S of England MAY Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 081017
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN: season - no signal



2018 APR MAY JUN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 221017
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141017
TEMP: Season: Above normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP:
APR mixed inland below elsewhere above MAY below normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR S above elsewhere below MAY above normal JUN below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 111017
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal but NE Scotland normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR normal but Eire and N Ireland below MAY normal but Wales and SW England below JUN normal but Eire above



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
APR NW Scotland N ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above MAY W Scotland N ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above JUN normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
APR normal but below in S of England MAY Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal JUN normnal locally below in SE England





2018 MAY JUN JUL


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP:
MAY below normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY above normal JUN below normal JUL above normal



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
MAY W Scotland N ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above JUN normal but England and Wales above JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY Wales and S half England below elsewhere normal JUN normnal locally below in SE England JUL S Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal





2018 JUN JUL AUG


http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 131017
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: normal orn above



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP: Season: above normal slightly
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN below normal JUL above normal AUG below normal



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
JUN normal but England and Wales above JUL above normal AUG Above normal
PPN :
JUN normal locally below in SE England JUL S Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal AUG normal




2018 JUL AUG SEP


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN: :
JUL above normal AUG below normal SEP S above elsewhere below



CanSIPS - 011017 delayed until 061017?
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG Above normal SEP Above normal
PPN :
JUL S Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal AUG normal SEP normal





2018 AUG SEP OCT


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 111017 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN: :
AUG below normal SEP S above elsewhere below OCT above normal




NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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