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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - September 2015 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 261015 (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


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Seasonal text latest


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OCTOBER data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

ALL DATA COMPLETE for October 2015

Data sources available date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (041015 111015 241015), Russia 310815, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 071015, NMME and CFS2 graphics 071015, UKMO seasonal 121015, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 121015, Japan JMA 151015, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151015, USA - IRI 151015, BCC China 161015, US International IMME 161015, Korea APCC 261015, UKMO Contingency 261015.


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CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



NOV DEC 2015 JAN 2016 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 161015 - There is a consistent signal for a very unsettled spell with above normal precipitation (except perhaps in the N where nearer normal) and for temperatures to recover to near normal or slightly above in the S and E but but with a risk of below normal values over W and N including parts and Eire. The signal for above normal PPN is less evident in January especially in the N and temps in the N may be more generally near or below normal. A consequence of this is increased snow risk in the N of the UK in January (near normal for December), compared to average.


Comment 021015 main caution is continuing below normal Atlantic Sea Temps which may be part of longer term change (see UKMO changes in climate system PDF)



IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - 161015 - suggest possible less precipitation for E of England but increased rainfall W and SW of UK and W and SW Eire.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 241015
TEMP: Season: above normal perhaps well above in S ( 1 or 2C)
NOV normal locally above in S DEC above normal well above in S JAN above normal well above in S
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV far N Scotland below normal most areas above but near normal Wales, W Midland, E England and N Scotland DEC above normal but NE Scotland normal JAN above normal but N Ireland, N and E Eire normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111015
TEMP: Season: Wales and S of England above normal elsewhere normal (+/-0.5 anomaly)
NOV normal but S of England above DEC normal but Wales and S half England above JAN normal but Wales and S half England above
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV above normal - most above in SW UK and SW Eire DEC above normal - most above in SW UK and SW Eire JAN mostly above normal but N Ireland and Eire, except the S, normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041015
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
NOV normal but England, Wales and SE Eire above normal DEC above normal except N Ireland and most of Eire normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland normal
NOV NE Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above DEC above normal but NE Scotland and NE England normal JAN above normal locally normal in N Ireland and NE England



SAWS South Africa Weather Service ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 211015
TEMP: Above normal Percentile 70-100%
PPN: N Scotland no signal elsewhere above normal 50 percentile plus 70-100 S and E Eire W Wales and SW England



UKMO contingency 261015 UKMO as most other output favouring unsettled milder wet and windy solutions.
TEMP:
November: Milder than normal with enhanced probs for very mild. (Perhaps not as mild as 2014 or 2011) NDJ: centre of distribution is slightly above normal perhaps not as mild as 2014 or 2013. UKMO hints at colder risk may develop in Jan.
PPN:
November: Above normal precipitation. Distribution clustered around near normal and above normal, reduced solutions for below normal but overall quite a wide spread of solutions. Possibly wetter than 2014 and 2013
NDJ: Above normal most likely with slightly enhanced probs for well above normal. Possibly not as wet as 2014 2013 and 2012. Quite a narrow clustering around 400mm (above normal)



Korea APCC - 261015
Temp: Season Eire and far W UK below normal far SE England abover normal elsewhere near normal
NOV Far W below normal, far E/SE above elsewhere normal DEC W Eire and SW UK below elsewhere normal JAN near normal but risk below normal in W
PPN : Season Scotland and N Ireland near normal elsewhere above normal
NOV N normal elsewhere above normal DEC S EIre, England and Wales above elsewhere normal JAN near normal


BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal but the N nearer normal - strongest signal for above in S England
PPN: Season: above normal but the north nearer normal


USA - IRI - 151015 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Probs for above normal range from 40% in SE of England to over 70% in N of Scotland
PPN : Hint at above normal across SW and far N of UK (tends to underforecast ppn)


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151015
TEMP: Season near normal but chance colder in far west and milder in far SE
NOV near normal DEC near normal but below in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland JAN near normal perhaps above in SE
PPN : Season near normal but above in S/SE of England
NOV normal but below in N Scotland and above in S/SW England DEC normal but above in S England JAN above normal in Wales and S two thirds of England below in NW Scotland elsewhere normal


Japan JMA 151015 enhanced jet low across Atlantic especially Nov and Dec.
Temp: Season N and W slightly below S and E slightly above normal
NOV Eire, N Ireland and far W of Wales/Scotland/England slightly below elsewhere slgihtly above DEC England slightly above elsewhere slightly below JAN Eire and N Ireland slgihtly below normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN : Season slightly above normal
NOV slightly above normal DEC slightly above JAN slightly above normal
PMSL: Season slightly below normal (Strong WSW mean)
NOV below normal especially in N (Strong W mean) DEC below normal (strong WSW) JAN below normal (strong WSW)


UKMO - 121015 enhanced Atlantic westerly upper winds.
TEMP: N Ireland, W Eire and parts of Cornwall probs for above normal below 40%, Midlands and E of England 60-80%. Most likely probs for near normal in most areas. Probs for well above normal highest in central and eastern areas 25-40% probs for well below in west 5 to 25% - summary near normal most likely perhaps above normal in E and below in W.
PPN : N Scotland uncertain elsewhere above normal indicated with enhanced probs for well above normal especially across Eire and parts of N Ire;nd.
PSML: Windy signal with above normal into the S and below over and to the N
SST: well below normal area continues in E Atlantic


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 121015
Temp: near normal
PPN : Wales and SW above normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal locally below in W
PPN : W of UK and also Eire above normal


Russia 310915
Temp: Above normal for most of England except SW England. SW England and remaining areas similar probs for above/normal/below but near normal NW Scotland
PPN : Above normal for Eire, Wales and England. Less certain Scotland and N Ireland where probs similar for above/normal/below.




The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 071015
TEMP: SEASON: near normal - slightly favouring above in E and SE of UK and below over Eire/N Ireland

PPN: SEASON: N of UK normal elsewhere above normal strongest signal in SW England.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 161015
TEMP: overall above normal in S and E and near normal in N and W especially the NW.
PPN: Overall above normal especially in W and SW.




Graphics 071015
CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN







NMME TEMP:




NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:



Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly data from NOAA NCEP CPC server 081015

Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) data from NOAA NCEP CPC server 081015


NMME ENS means 200hPa height anomaly. Data from NOAA NCEP CPC server 081015



Winter DEC 2015 JAN FEB 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - A typical winter? Changeable start with low pressure often moving across the UK but later in the winter still cyclonic types overall but less Atlantic mobility with chance of winter highs higher in Feb than in December. Precip is likely to be above normal across the South / SW of UK early in winter and perhaps across the N later although support for this change is limited to CFS2 output. There is no indication in the models for an unusually cold winter especially in the S and E of England where near or above normal temps are most likely, although perhaps near or slightly below normal temps are more likely in the N of UK also NW of Eire. Note hint at colder start to spring/end of winter. Snow in the South of UK is more likely to be below the long term average than above but in the North and near normal or a little above normal is possible.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - 161015 - main signal is for near normal precip but slightly increased risk for parts of Scotland to be above normal - see maps.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 241015
TEMP: Season: above normal perhaps well above in S (1 to 2 C)
DEC above normal well above in S JAN above normal well above in S FEB England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal (especially SW of UK)
DEC above normal but NE Scotland normal JAN above normal but N Ireland, N and E Eire normal. FEB above normal but N Ireland and N Scotland normal locally below in far NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111015
TEMP: Season: England, Wales and SE Eire above elsewhere normal
DEC normal but Wales and S half England above JAN normal but Wales and S half England above FEB N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC above normal - most above in SW UK and SW Eire JAN mostly above normal but N Ireland and Eire, except the S, normal FEB above normal but E of E Anglia normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041015
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal except N Ireland and most of Eire normal JAN above normal FEB Wales and S two thirds of England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland and NE England normal
DEC above normal but NE Scotland and NE England normal JAN above normal locally normal in N Ireland and NE England FEB normal locally above in SW England, SE England, SW Eire and NW Scotland



BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: near normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in far N


USA - IRI - 151015 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: mostly 40% prob of above normal locally 45-50 in Midlands and aove 50% in N Scotland
PPN : no signal for departure from normal ranges


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151015
TEMP: Season near normal but far SE may be above normal
DEC near normal but below in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland JAN near normal perhaps above in SE FEB Normal for Scotland, N Ireland and Eire elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season near normal perhaps above in SW
DEC normal but above in S England JAN above normal in Wales and S two thirds of England below in NW Scotland elsewhere normal FEB normal but below in N and W Scotland and perhaps far SW of England


UKMO - 121015 less noticeable enhanced Atlantic westerly upper winds.
TEMP: Below normal temps probable in NW Scotland and W Eire, elsewhere near normal most likely.
PPN : near normal seems likely but above normal in Wales and S Eire. Enhanced probs for well above normal in Wales and W and S England also SE Eire.
PSML: most likely within the normal spread of pressure patterns perhaps above normal in far S.
SST: well below normal area continues in E Atlantic


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 121015
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal locally below in W
PPN : S and W of UK and also Eire above normal


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 071015
TEMP: SEASON: near normal - slightly favouring above normal except in far W

PPN: SEASON: N of UK normal elsewhere above normal strongest signal in far S England.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 161015
TEMP: Overall above normal especially in S and E and near normal in N and W of UK and Eire. Cooling trend later in period.
PPN: Overall above normal especially in W and SW. But Feb forecast to be near normal.


Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:


UK area Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN mean anomaly



NMME ENS means 200hPa height anomaly. Data from NOAA NCEP CPC server 081015



2016 JAN FEB MAR ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 241015
TEMP: Season: normal but England Wales and SE Eire above normal
JAN above normal well above in S FEB England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal MAR normal but S England above
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal but N Ireland, N and E Eire normal. FEB above normal but N Ireland and N Scotland normal locally below in far NW Scotland MAR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111015
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above normal elsewhere normal
JAN normal but Wales and S half England above FEB N haf Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland and NE Eire normal elsewhere above
JAN mostly above normal but N Ireland and Eire, except the S, normal FEB above normal but E of E Anglia normal MAR E of England above normal. S of Eire, SW Scotland and Central Lowlands below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041015
TEMP: Season: normal but Wales and S England above normal
JAN above normal FEB Wales and S two thirds of England above normal elsewhere normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: normal but S Eire and S England above normal
JAN above normal locally normal in N Ireland and NE England FEB normal locally above in SW England, SE England, SW Eire and NW Scotland MAR normal locally above in SW England and SE England



BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: near normal but above in far N


USA - IRI - 151015 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Probs for above normal 45 to 50% in NW Scotland elsewhere mostly 40 to 45% but S Scotland and N Ireland no signal for departure from normal ranges
PPN : no signal for departure from normal ranges


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151015
TEMP: Season near normal
JAN near normal perhaps above in SE FEB Normal for Scotland, N Ireland and Eire elsewhere above normal MAR mostly below normal
PPN : Season near normal perhaps below in NW Scotland
JAN above normal in Wales and S two thirds of England below in NW Scotland elsewhere normal FEB normal but below in N and W Scotland and perhaps far SW of England MAR near normal perhaps above in E England


UKMO - 121015
TEMP: near normal but with mod probs for N half Scotland and N and W Eire to be below normal. Still a chane that S and E UK could be above normal.
PPN : near normal for many but risk that SE England is above normal. Slightly enhanced probs for well above normal in SW England and S Wales also SE England
PSML: near normal. Slightly enhanced probs for well above normal in the N (periods of easterlies in S ?).
SST: well below normal area continues in E Atlantic


2016 FEB MAR APR ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 241015
TEMP: Season: normal but S Wales and S England above normal
FEB England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal MAR normal but S England above APR normal but far SE England above
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB above normal but N Ireland and N Scotland normal locally below in far NW Scotland MAR above normal APR above normal but NE Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111015
TEMP: Season: near normal perhaps far SE England above
FEB N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR normal APR normal (+/-0.5 anomaly)
PPN: Season: N Ireland, W and S Scotland NW England and N half Wales above elsewhewe normal
FEB above normal but E of E Anglia normal MAR E of England above normal. S of Eire, SW Scotland and Central Lowlands below elsewhere normal APR N Ireland and most of Scotland above, S of Scotland England and Wales normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041015
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in SE and SW England



Korea APCC - 261015
Temp: Season near normal
FEB near normal chance above in S MAR near normal APR Scotland normal elsewhere below normal
PPN : Season near normal chance below in far NW and above in far S/SE
FEB Eire.N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal MAR near normnal chance below in far W Eire and far NW of UK APR near normal chance below in far N/NW risk above in far E of England.


BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: near normal or slightly above normal in S highest probs for above normal in N
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA - IRI - 151015 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: NW Scotland 40 to 50% prob of above normal elsewhere no signal for departure from normal ranges (strong cold signal over Russia)
PPN : no signal for departure from normal ranges


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151015
TEMP: Season near normal
FEB Normal for Scotland, N Ireland and Eire elsewhere above normal MAR mostly below normal APR near normal perhaps below in far N Scotland
PPN : Season near normal
FEB normal but below in N and W Scotland and perhaps far SW of England MAR near normal perhaps above in E England APR normal but Eire below



Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 16Oct2015 - A drier and colder than normal early spring is suggested, possibly becoming wetter in the NW during April with May near normal rain (perhaps wetter in far NW and far SE) and a litle milder than average. (Colder than normal period may start in Feb)


IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - 161015 - Above normal precip for many areas suggested by statisitcal link to El Nino - see maps.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 241015
TEMP: Season: near normal (+/- 0.5C)
PPN: Season: S Eire normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111015
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: S Eire below. Far N Scotland and far SE England above. Elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041015
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Southern half of England


BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151015
TEMP:
MAR mostly below normal APR near normal perhaps below in far N Scotland MAY near normal but Scotland above normal
PPN :
MAR near normal perhaps above in E England APR normal but Eire below MAY normal but W Scotland and NW Eire above


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 071015
TEMP: SEASON: near normal - slightly favouring below normal in W Eire and W Scotland (reduced probs for above normal in SE)

PPN: SEASON: near normal but parts of N Ireland, NE Scotland and NE England (also E of E Anglia) slightly above normal.



NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





late Spring 2016 APR MAY JUN ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 241015
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111015
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland and Midlands England above. Elsewhere normal



BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151015
TEMP:
APR near normal perhaps below in far N Scotland MAY near normal but Scotland above normal JUN near normal but S and E England above
PPN :
APR normal but Eire below MAY normal but W Scotland and NW Eire above JUN near normal but SW England may be below



late Spring MAY JUN JUL---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: slightly below normal
PPN: Season: Eire and N Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above normal



Summer JUN JUL AUG---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 161015 -
TEMP: Season: near normal but Eire and N Ireland below normal
PPN: Season: SW slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above or near normal


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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