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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
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Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for Month ahead and Seasons ahead based on data available OCT 2014

Updated 271014. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike



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Seasonal text latest


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Comment - 261014 - seems a hint that late winter or early spring may be colder than normal?
Comment - 101014 - several models suggesting enhanced Atlantic jet with exit near to S of UK/N France until reduced flow over UK late winter and into Spring 2015.




OCTOBER data 271014 all in from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
Russia WEB SITE WORKING again 231014 not avilable since 040914


Sites with no data
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014
KMA - no EU data


CFS2 temperature plots for 42 weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown




SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



NOV DEC 2014 JAN 2015 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - Normal to mild and wetter than normal period indicated.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191014
TEMP: Season: normal but S England (not SW) above normal
NOV normal DEC normal but above for S Midlands and all S England and E Wales. 2015 JAN normal but above in S England
PPN: Season: above normal Eire, SW England, SW and N Wales, NW England, SW and W Scotland elsewhere normal
NOV normal but above in W Eire and below in Midlands DEC N Scotland and N Eire normal eslewhere above 2015 JAN normal but W Scotland above and SE England below FEB normal but SE and central Eire below and NW Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal but above in S
NOV mostly above normal DEC normal 2015 JAN normal but the S above
PPN: Season: above normal except normal in E Scotland and NE England
NOV above normal but normal in E Scotland and NE England DEC above normal but normal in N Eire/N Ireland, N and E Scotland and NE England 2015 JAN normal but above in Eire SW Scotland, NW England and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal but locally above in S
NOV Wales and S half England DEC normal JAN 2015 normal but above in S and SW England and S Wales
PPN: Season: Above normal but normal N Ireland, NE Eire N/NE England and Scotland except W and SW.
NOV N and E Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above normal DEC mostly normal but above in W Eire SW England and S Wales also SE England JAN 2015 mostly above normal N Ireland and parts of N and E Scotland normal


UKMO Contingency - 241014
TEMP: November fairly narrow spread centred on normal plus or minus 1C or so but slightly favouring above normal.
Season: main theme is above normal but about 30% suggest slightly below normal. Well above normal slightly enhanced probs.
PPN: November wide spread of solutions but centred on near or slightly above normal with slightly enhanced risk of well above normal.
Season: normal or above most likely with slightly enhanced risk of well above normal .

UK - 121014 indications of enhanced zonal flow across Atlantic at 500hpa
TEMP: Normal for Eire/N Ireland elsewhere above normal with slightly enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : Normal or above normal. Above normal more likely in Eire and W and S UK where. Slightly enhanced risk of well above normal except in N and E UK.
PSML: normal but below in N where also a risk of well below normal - typical of unsettled types


Korea APCC - 251014
Temp: Season Above normal mainly SW and E of UK and SE of Eire
NOV above but Eire normal DEC slightly above JAN slightly above
PPN : Season above normal in W and far NE otherwise weak signal
NOV above normal in W and SW DEC above normal in W and SW JAN normal


Russia 231014 (data 011014)
Temp: at least 70% prob of above normal temps
PPN : no signal hint at above normal in SW and E


JMA 151014
Temp: Season slightly above normal
NOV slightly above normal DEC slightly above 2015 JAN slightly above
PPN : Season slightly above normal
NOV slightly above normal DEC slightly above 2015 JAN slightly above
PMSL: Season below normal only slightly in S (WSW strong)
NOV below normal WSW DEC below normal only slightly in S (WSW strong) 2015 JAN S slightly above elsewhere below normal (strong WSW)


USA - IRI - 171014 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: SE England no signal elsewhere above normal 50% prob in NW to 40in E/S
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 141014 -
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: normal or slightly below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091014
TEMP: Season above normal but NW parts UK and Eire normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal but Eire and NW Scotland normal 2015 JAN England and Wakes above normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season mostly above normal but NE Scotland normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal 2015 JAN above normal


Korea APCC - due 25th
Temp: Season
NOV DEC 2014 JAN 2015
PPN : Season
NOV DEC 2014 JAN 2015br>

Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 101014
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal but N Isles and far SW may be above
PMSL: near normal to slightly above in NE
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: slightly above
PPN : near normal to slightly below in SW and NW UK


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL (NEW GFDL FLORa06 and b01 included March 2014), IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091010
TEMP: SEASON: above normal especially across the S/SE of England (probs in 50-60% range)

PPN: SEASON: slightly above normal especially S and W (includes S and W Eire) 40 to 50% probs



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 091010
TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal but above normal across the S/SE of England

PPN: SEASON: slightly above normal especially S and W (includes S and W Eire)




Winter DEC 2014 JAN FEB 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment - 131014 - signal for a fairly mild and wet winter start ending nearer normal/colder and nearer normal PPN.
Some colder spells, as shown by graphs above, are possible. Hint at colder end to winter or colder spring with increased snow risk especially in N.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191014
TEMP: Season: normal but S England (not SW) above normal
DEC normal but above for S Midlands and all S England and E Wales. 2015 JAN normal but above in S England FEB normal
PPN: Season: above normal SW Eire, SW England, Wales, W Midland, NW England, SW and W Scotland elsewhere normal DEC N Scotland and N Eire normal eslewhere above 2015 JAN normal but W Scotland above and SE England below FEB normal but SE and central Eire below and NW Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
DEC normal 2015 JAN normal but the S above FEB normal but the S above
PPN: Season: normal in E elsewhere above normal
DEC above normal but normal in N Eire/N Ireland, N and E Scotland and NE England 2015 JAN normal but above in Eire SW Scotland, NW England and SW England FEB mostly above normal but normal in parts of Eire and E of UK

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
DEC normal JAN 2015 normal but above in S and SW England and S Wales FEB normal but above in S and SE England
PPN: Season: Above normal but normal N Ireland, NE and E Eire NE England and Scotland except W and SW.
DEC mostly normal but above in W Eire SW England and S Wales also SE England JAN 2015 mostly above normal N Ireland and parts of N and E Scotland normal FEB slightly above normal but normal in SE Eire E/SE Scotland and NE England



UK - 121014 indications of enhanced zonal flow across Atlantic at 500hpa
TEMP: normal but above in most of Scotland and E of England. Slghtly enhanced chance of well above normal across UK except in W/SW also Eire.
PPN : signal for above normal NW Scotland NW Eire and SW England elsewhere normal but risk above in N and W. Slightly enhanced probs for well above normal except NE Scotland.
PSML: normal but below normal or well below normal in N


Korea APCC - 251014
Temp:
DEC slightly above JAN slightly above FEB normal
PPN :
DEC above normal in W and SW JAN normal FEB normal


USA - IRI - 171014 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal 40% prob up to 45% NE Scotland and Mildlands England
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 141014 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above
PPN: Season: normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091014
TEMP: Season England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
DEC above normal but Eire and NW Scotland normal 2015 JAN England and Wakes above normal elsewhere normal FEB England and Wales abive normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season mostly above normal but N Scotland normal
DEC above normal 2015 JAN above normal FEB Eire and S Wales/S England above, N Scotland below elsewhere normal


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL (NEW GFDL FLORa06 and b01 included March 2014), IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091010
TEMP: SEASON: E and SE slightly above normal elsewhere normal

PPN: SEASON: slightly above normal in SW and SW Eire elsewhere normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 091010
TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal but above normal across the S/SE of England

PPN: SEASON: E and SE slightly above normal elsewhere normal possibly slightly below normal in W of Eire.

CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 PPN



NMME MAX (MIN not available)


NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





JAN FEB MAR 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191014
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN normal but above in S England FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: W Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
JAN normal but W Scotland above and SE England below FEB normal but SE and central Eire below and NW Scotland above MAR normal but SW England and S Eire below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal but above in S
JAN normal but the S above FEB normal but the S above MAR normal but far SE England above
PPN: Season: normal but above in parts of SW England, Eire and most of Scotland except E
JAN normal but above in Eire SW Scotland, NW England and SW England FEB mostly above noral but normal in parts of Eire and E of UK MAR Normal but NW Scotland above and SW England below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN 2015 normal but above in S and SW England and S Wales FEB normal but above in S and SE England MAR normal
PPN: Season: above normal for N an W Scotland most of Eire and N Ireland, Wales, SW England, W Midlands, E Anglia and SE England elsewhere normal
JAN 2015 mostly above normal N Ireland and parts of N and E Scotland normal FEB slightly above normal but normal in SE Eire E/SE Scotland and NE England MAR Normal but NW Scotland above and S Eire SW England and S Wales below



UK - 121014 500hpa indications of enhanced risk of cyclonic patterns over N of UK
TEMP: above normal or well above normal but in the W of Eire normal. Enhanced chance of well above normal except Eire
PPN : above normal especially in N. Enhanced probs for well above normal N and W also SW but low chance of well below normal in SW
PSML: although below normal in N slightly enhanced ridging signal in S


USA - IRI - 171014 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal 40% prob up to 45% NE Scotland and Mildlands England
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 141014 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal but above normal in NW
PPN: Season: normal - slightly above in NW and slightly below in SE


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091014
TEMP: Season Most areas normal but SE two thirds of England above
2015 JAN England and Wakes above normal elsewhere normal FEB England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal MAR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire below normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Season mostly above normal but N half Scotland normal
JAN above normal FEB Eire and S Wales/S England above, N Scotland below elsewhere normal MAR above normal



FEB MAR APR 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191014
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but parts of S Eire below normal
FEB normal but SE and central Eire below and NW Scotland above MAR normal but SW England and S Eire below APR normal but Wales above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal but the S above MAR normal but far SE England above APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland
FEB mostly above noral but normal in parts of Eire and E of UK MAR Normal but NW Scotland above and SW England below APR mostly below bur E nd SE England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in far NW Scotland and far SE England



BCC China - 141014 -
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: normal perhaps slightly above in NW and slightly elsewhere


USA - IRI - 171014 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : no signal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091014
TEMP: Season Eire and N Ireland below normal SE England slightly above elsewhere normal
FEB England and Wales abive normal elsewhere normal MAR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire below normal elsewhere normal APR Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal
PPN : Season S and W UK and Eire slightly above elsewhere normal
FEB Eire and S Wales/S England above, N Scotland below elsewhere normal MAR above normal APR normal



Spring MAR APR MAY 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comment - 101014 - hints at normal or colder than normal period in spring and perhaps drier too. Low pressures tending to track over the UK especially the N and be slower moving/reduced zonality?

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 191014
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but parts of S Eire below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 111014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and below for much of Eire, Wales SW England and SW Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 041014 - CFS2 normal = typicaly slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but hints below normal in parts of Eire and W Scotland (implies drier APR MAY)


BCC China - 141014 -
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: normal perhaps slightly above in NW


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 091014
TEMP:
MAR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire below normal elsewhere normal APR Scotland and N England normal elsewhere below normal MAY normal but some W and SW parts below and far E England above
PPN :
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal but NW UK above


CFS2 MAX MIN




CFS2 PPN








Summer JUN JUY AUG 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



BCC China - 141014 -
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: normal or slightly below


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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