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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - October 2015 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 301115 (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


November 2015 data complete from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

India Met Office IMO (not available).


Data sources available date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (021115 101115 181115), NMME and CFS2 graphics 091115 UK zoom 141115, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 091115, Russia 301015, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 101115, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 101115, UKMO seasonal 121115, BCC China 151115, US International IMME 171115, Japan JMA 171115, USA - IRI 201115, Korea APCC 251115, South Africal SAWS (new) 261115, UKMO Contingency 301115.


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Winter DEC 2015 JAN FEB 2016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - 301115 - UKMO contingency in good agreement with milder later colder and above normal precipitation
Summary - 261115 - no sig changes in the later data but CFS2 stronger signal for less precipation in Feb
Summary - 151115 - Main signal is for a milder than normal winter (especially compared to 1961-90 period) but with a signal for the N and W of UK and Eire to be nearer normal perhaps a little below. (Only CMC2 and NASA GOES5 suggest below normal). There is a signal for February to be neaer normal/colder perhaps offsetting the milder December but the transition possibly later in January looks uncertain. Preicitation overall looks above normal or normal with late January but more likely February possibly near or a little below normal and perhaps with more snow than average although the S of UK may have normal or below average snowfall.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - main signal is for near normal precip but slightly increased risk for parts of Scotland to be above normal - see maps.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 251115
TEMP: Season: N half Scotland near normal elsewhere above normal (0.5 to 1C)
DEC above normal in England, Wales, S of Eire and S half Scotland elsewhere normal JAN above normal, Wales and S half of England well above (1 to 2C) FEB S and SE England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: Above normal
DEC above normal - well above in Eire, NW and W of UK JAN above normal especially in W FEB near normal but W Scotland and W Eire below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 181115
TEMP: Season: Normal but England, Wales and SE Eire above normal (0.5 to 1C)
DEC normal but S Wales and S England above JAN Above normal Eire, SE Scotland England and Wales (well above in S) FEB N Ireland normal elsewhere above (well above in S/SE England)
PPN: Season: above normal - well above in SW and far SE
DEC above normal especially W and SW areas JAN above normal especially W and SW areas FEB above normnal locally normal in NW Eire and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101115
TEMP: Season: Above normal SE Eire, Wales and England elsewhere normal
DEC S Eire, Wales and England above normal elsewhere normal JAN N Eire, N Ireland, Central and N Scotland above normal elsewhere normal FEB Wales and England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC strong indication for above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal especially in S of England and for Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 021115
TEMP: Season: far N normal elsewhere above, S of England 1 to 2 C anomaly
DEC Above normal England, Wales and SE Eire 1 to 2 C above JAN England and Wales above elsewhere normal FEB E Eire Wales England and S and E Scotland above normal (SE England 1 to 2C) elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal except perhaps NE Scotland and NE England near normal
DEC above normal well above in western exposures JAN above normal locally normal E Midlands FEB above normal but N Scotland normal




UKMO contingency web published 301115 dated 261115
TEMP:
December: Above or well above normal. Two clusters one near normal the other well above (more than 1C anomaly)
Winter: Overall near normal or slightly above normal. Enhanced prob for well above normal 20 to 25% rather than 20% and for well below 15% rather than 20%. A colder than normal outlook for late in winter is stated in the UKMO text - possibly offsetting the mild or very mild start. Roughly 60% of the ensemble memebers are above the UK average and 40% below. Very few memebers are as mild as winter 2013/14.
PPN:
December: Above or well above normal. Roughly clustered near normal and well above normal around 30% of enemble is below normal with the overall distribution shifted towards above normal
Winter: above or well above normal most likely (no members as wet as 2013/14). Chance of well below normal 10 to 15% and well above 25% (compared to standard 20% prob). COnfidence expressing in first half of winter being wetter than normal but lower confidence later in the winter.



SAWS South Africa Weather Service ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 261115 (run date 181115)
TEMP: Above normal 70-100% prob
PPN: Above normal 70-100% prob but H half Scotland 33% to 60% prob


Korea APCC - MME - 251115
Temp: Season slightly above normal but in Eire/N Ireland and other western areas similar probs for above/normal/below
DEC W similar probs for above/normal/below E slightly above normal JAN mostly similar probs for above/normal/below but the E slightly above normal FEB mostly similar probs for above/normal/below but the E slightly above normal
PPN : Season England and Wales above normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below
DEC above normnal especially in W JAN similar probs for above/normal/below but above in E FEB similar probs for above/normal/below but below in NW


USA - IRI - 201115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Most likely above normal (1981-2010) 40% prob, 45% SW England and Wales over 50% prob in N and E Scotland
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


Japan JMA 171115 (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Mondel has much less ridging in W Atlantic and a more generally zonal pattern at 200hPa. Temp: Season slightly above normal
DEC Eire and NW Scotland slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above normal JAN slightly above normal FEB slightly above normal
PPN : Season slightly above normal
DEC Season slightly above normal JAN N Ireland and Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere slightly below FEB S slightly above normal elsewhere slightly below
PMSL: Season slightly above normal (Strong WSW)
DEC Below normal in NE and above in SW (strong WSW) JAN above normal (strong WSW) FEB N above S below (less strong SW)


BCC China - 151115 -
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: Eire normal or slightly below elsewhere slightly above normal


UKMO Glosea5 (0.8*0.5 deg 50km resolution) 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009
UKMO - 121115 - strongly zonal signal
TEMP: Eire and N Ireland probs similar for normal/above/below, N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal most likely. Probs for well above normal in 40% to 55% range for Wales and S England. (Probs for well below normal 5 to 25% all areas)
PPN : probs for above average 60 to 80% range except E Scotland and E Eire where 40-60%. Probs for well below normal less than 5% across Eire and S England. Enhanced probs for well above normal in N and W also far SE.
PSML: Below normal pressure more likely than above altough in SW similar probs for normal/above/below. Note 500hPa suggest below normal across and the the N of UK.
SST: N Atlantic remaining below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 101115
TEMP: Season Below normal for Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, W Wales and far SW England locally above in E England elsewhere normal
DEC slightly above normal JAN W and N slightly below mostly near normal locally above in far E FEB below normal
PPN : Season Below normal in much of the W locally above in E England elsewhere normal
DEC NE above normal Eire, Wales and SW below elsewhere normal JAN far SE above most of N and W below normal FEB SE above NW below elsewhere normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 101115
Temp: near normal (+/-0.5C) in S above in N
PPN : NW above normal (note persistent sea temps makes this SW of UK rather than NW)
PMSL: below normal over and to E of UK, persisted SST makes this below over and to SW of UK
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal but above in the N
PPN : N and W above normal elsewhere normal


Russia 301015 - hints at cooler in W and milder in E and hints at above normal rain in S and E.
Temp: Similar probs above/normal/below but the W of Eire below normal and N Sea coasts of England and far N Scotland above normal
PPN : Similar probs above/normal/below but below normal to the NW of Scotland above normal N Sea coasts opf England and also to the SW of SW England


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091115
TEMP: SEASON: W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire near normal elsewhere above normal especially the SE. Coldest models are NASA CMC2 and GFDL. CFS2 warmest.
PPN: SEASON: slightly above normal. Wetter model CFS2 drier NASA.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 171115
TEMP: Season: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal.
DEC Eire, N Ireland and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JAN far NW normal elsewhere above FEB Eire, N Ireland and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: Above normal but some central and eastern areas normal
DEC Above normal JAN normal but Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal FEB normal but locally above in the S and SE of England



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:


UK area Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN mean anomaly 141115



NMME ENS means 200hPa height anomaly. Data from NOAA NCEP CPC server



2016 JAN FEB MAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 251115
TEMP: Season: N England, N of Eire, N Ireland and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal (0.5 to 1C)
JAN above normal, Wales and S half of England well above (1 to 2C) FEB S and SE England above normal elsewhere normal MAR parts of S and SE England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal NE England and NW Eire
JAN above normal especially in W FEB near normal but W Scotland and W Eire below normal MAR near normal locally above in SW England, parts of NW England and S Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 181115
TEMP: Season: Normal but England except the N, Wales and SE Eire above normal (0.5 to 1C)
JAN Above normal Eire, SE Scotland England and Wales (well above in S) FEB N Ireland normal elsewhere above (well above in S/SE England) MAR normal but SE England above
PPN: Season: above normal - well above in SW and far SE, locally normal NE England
JAN above normal especially W and SW areas FEB above normal locally normal in NW Eire and N Ireland MAR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101115
TEMP: Season: Above normal Wales and England elsewhere normal
JAN N Eire, N Ireland, Central and N Scotland above normal elsewhere normal FEB Wales and England above elsewhere normal MAR SE England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal especially in S of England and for Wales MAR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 021115
TEMP: Season: England and Wales above elsewhere normal
JAN England and Wales above elsewhere normal FEB E Eire Wales England and S and E Scotland above normal (SE England 1 to 2C) elsewhere normal MAR Wales and S two thirds England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal except perhaps NE Scotland near normal
JAN above normal locally normal E Midlands FEB above normal but N Scotland normal MAR Eire and Central S England normal elsewhere above



SAWS South Africa Weather Service ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 261115
TEMP: above normal percentile 70 to 100%
PPN: Wales, Eire and N Ireland above normal percentile 70 to 100%. England and S Scotland above normal 50 to 60% elsewhere 33 to 50% above normal percentile.


USA - IRI - 201115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Most likely above normal (1981-2010) 40% prob, 45% N England and NE Wales 45% W Scotland and 60% prob in E Scotland
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 151115 -
TEMP: Season: NW Eire and NW Scotland above normal. England and Wales below normal
PPN: Season: above normal


UKMO - 121115
TEMP: For SW England, Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland risk of normal or below elsewhere above more likely. Probs for well below normal in the 5 to 25% range but for well above normal 25 to 40% and for Wales and S England 40 to 55%.
PPN : Above normal more likely than below with enhanced probs for well above normal
PSML: Below or well below normal presure more likely across the N of UK but also into central and N Europe


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 101115
TEMP: Season NW UK below normal SE above elsewhere normal
JAN W and N slightly below mostly near normal locally above in far E FEB below normal MAR slightly above normal
PPN : Season SE/E above normal elsewhere normal
JAN far SE above most of N and W below normal FEB SE above NW below elsewhere normal MAR above normal especially in W



2016 FEB MAR APR --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 251115
TEMP: Season: Near normal (+/-0.5C)
FEB S and SE England above normal elsewhere normal MAR parts of S and SE England above normal elsewhere normal APR near normal
PPN: Season: near normal but W Eire below normal
FEB near normal but W Scotland and W Eire below normal MAR near normal locally above in SW England, parts of NW England and S Scotland APR normal but below in EIre, SW England and Wales and lowlands/central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 181115
TEMP: Season: Normal but SE Wales, S and SE England above normal (0.5 to 1C)
FEB N Ireland normal elsewhere above (well above in S/SE England) MAR normal but SE England above APR normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for most of Eire (except E) and western N Ireland
FEB above normal locally normal in NW Eire and N Ireland MAR above normal APR Eire normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101115
TEMP: Season: S England above normal elsewhere normal
FEB Wales and England above elsewhere normal MAR SE England above normal elsewhere normal APR normal
PPN: Season: Above normal SE Eire, Wales and England otherwise normal
FEB above normal especially in S of England and for Wales MAR above normal APR Scotland above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 021115
TEMP: Season: far N normal elsewhere above, S of England 1 to 2 C anomaly
FEB E Eire Wales England and S and E Scotland above normal (SE England 1 to 2C) elsewhere normal MAR Wales and S two thirds England above elsewhere normal APR Midlands and SE above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: above normal but parts of SE England and most of Eire normal
FEB above normal but N Scotland normal MAR Eire and Central S England normal elsewhere above APR SW Eire below N half Scotland above elsewhere normal



SAWS South Africa Weather Service ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 261115
TEMP: above normal percentile 50 to 60% in N, 70 to 100% SW England elsewhere 60 to 70%
PPN: N half Scotland normal or similar probs for above/normal/below elsewhere above normal percentile 33 to 50% but 50 to 60% for Wales and SE Eire.


USA - IRI - 201115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Most likely above normal (1981-2010) 40% prob, 45% N amd NE England over 50% prob in N Scotland
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 151115 -
TEMP: Season: Eire and W UK above normal far E of UK below normal
PPN: Season: N above normal S below normal


UKMO - 121115
TEMP: For western areas similar probs for normal/above/below elsewhere above normal more likely with enhanced probs for well above normal excpet W and N Eire/N Ireland and NW Scotland where similar prob ranges for well below normal.
PPN : above normal slightly more likely than normal or below also probs for well above normal area enhanced in the 25 to 40% range
PSML: below or well below normal pressure across the UK most likely perhaps nearer normal in S


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 101115
TEMP: Season near normal slightly above in E of England
FEB below normal MAR slightly above normal APR slightly above normal
PPN : Season near or slightly above normal
FEB SE above NW below elsewhere normal MAR above normal especially in W APR England and Wales below elsewhere normal



Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 251115 - hint that southern N Sea temps may be colder than normal in May may add weight to near or slightly below normal temps in April/May
Summary - 151115 - Near or normal or above normal temperatures overall but hints that March could be milder and April near normal or colder than normal. Precipitation near normal overall but wetter in March in W and in the N and E in April which allows for drier in the S and W in April and possibly drier in the S in May.


IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - Above normal precip for many areas suggested by statisitcal link to El Nino - see maps. However forecasts suggest El Nino may be weakening in Spring 2016.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 251115
TEMP: Season: Near normal
MAR parts of S and SE England above normal elsewhere normal APR near normal MAY near normal
PPN: Season: Near normal but far SW Eire below and far SE England possibly above
MAR near normal locally above in SW England, parts of NW England and S Scotland APR normal but below in EIre, SW England and Wales and lowlands/central Scotland MAY near normal locally above over S Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 181115
TEMP: Season: Normal (+/-0.5C)
MAR normal but SE England above APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: Normal in Eire, N Ireland and NE England elsewhere above normal
MAR above normal APR Eire normal elsewhere above MAY normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101115
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but W and N Scotland and Cornwall above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 021115
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: Scotland and N England above normal elsewhere normal



Korea APCC - 251115
Temp: Season slightly above normal but in Eire/N Ireland and other western areas similar probs for above/normal/below
MAR mostly similar probs for above/normal/below but the E of England slightly above normal APR mostly similar probs for above/normal/below MAY NOT AVAILABLE
PPN : Season similar probs for above/normal/below
MAR similar probs for above/normal/below APR similar probs for above/normal/below MAY not available


USA - IRI - 201115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Most likely above normal (1981-2010) 40% prob in S, 45% W and N Eire and NE Midlands 50% N England and over 60 % N and E Scotland
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 151115 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: NW below normal elsewhere above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 101115
TEMP: Season above normal locally normal in far W
MAR slightly above normal APR slightly above normal MAY NW near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season NW slightly above elsewhere normal
MAR above normal especially in W APR England and Wales below elsewhere normal MAY England and Wales below elsewhere normal


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 091115
TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal. Monthly data suggests April near or below normal.
PPN: SEASON: N half of UK and NE England above normal elsewhere near normal perhaps drier in SW.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 171115
TEMP: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
PPN: Near normal. March may be above normal in far S.



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 141115





Late Spring 2016 APR MAY JUN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 251115
TEMP: Season: Near normal
PPN: Season: Near normal but W Eire below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 181115
TEMP: Season: Normal (0.5 to 1C)
PPN: Season: normal - locally above in NW Scotland and far SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 101115
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 021115
TEMP: Season: near normal but N half of Scotland above
PPN: Season: near normal but SW Eire below



BCC China - 151115 -
TEMP: Season: NW UK above normal elsewhere below
PPN: Season: above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 101115
TEMP:
APR slightly above normal MAY NW near normal elsewhere above normal JUN W normal elsewhere slightly above JUL N normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN:
APR England and Wales below elsewhere normal MAY England and Wales below elsewhere normal JUN N slightly above elsewhere normal



MAY JUN JUL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 251115
TEMP: Season: Near normal
PPN: Season: Near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 181115
TEMP: Season: Normal (0.5 to 1C)
PPN: Season: normal - locally above in NW Scotland



BCC China - 151115 -
TEMP: Season: below normal but far NW above
PPN: Season: above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 101115
TEMP:
MAY NW near normal elsewhere above normal JUN W normal elsewhere slightly above JUL N normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN:
MAY England and Wales below elsewhere normal JUN N slightly above elsewhere normal JUL near normal slightyl below NW Highlands and far SE England



Summer 2016 JUN JUL AUG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 151115 -
TEMP: Season: below
PPN: Season: England and Wales below normal elsewhere above


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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