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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - OCTOBER 2014 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for Month ahead and Seasons ahead based on data available NOV 2014

Updated 261114. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


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Seasonal text latest

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NOVEMBER data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES shown below

Sites with no data
Russia WEB SITE WORKING again 231014 not avilable since 040914
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014
KMA - no EU data

CFS2 temperature plots for 42 weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Winter DEC 2014 JAN FEB 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment - 261114 - Milder than normal and wetter than normal overall but some support from UKMO for colder and/or drier than normal later in winter Comment - 151114 - slightly increased signal for colder than normal late winter Feb/March Comment - 101114 - main signal for a mild and wet winter. Hints at change late in winter.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 201114 - normal implies slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
DEC normal 2015 JAN normal FEB normal
PPN: Season: normal
DEC Normal but above in S and SW England W Wales NW England SW Scotland SW Eire but below in N Eire 2015JAN normal but above in Wales NE and far SE England FEB normal but below for SE Scotland England and Wales.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141114
TEMP: Season: normal but above across SE England
DEC above normal but Eire, N Ireland nd NW Scotland normal 2015 JAN normal FEB normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Eire, SW England, SW and NW Wales and far SE England
DEC mostly above normal but NW Eire and Highland Scotland normal and far N Scotland below 2015JAN normal but SW England, SW Wales and SW Eire above FEB mostly below normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091114 Central and SE Europe unusually mild
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in S third of England apart from far SW
DEC above normal but NW Eire normal 2015 JAN normal but far SE England above FEB normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but normal in N half Scotland and parts of E England
DEC above normal but far N Scotland normal 2015 JAN normal but above for SW Eire S England and S Wales FEB above normal but N/NE Scotland and parts of E Midlands normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311014
TEMP: Season: normal but S of UK above normal
DEC Normal but England, Wales and S Eire above 2015 JAN normal but S of England above (not SW) FEB normal but far SE England above
PPN: Season: above normal less so in NE England and far N Scotland
DEC N Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above 2015 JAN above normal but parts of E England and SE Eire normal FEB NE Scotland SE Eire and central S England normal elsewhere above




UKMO contingency 201114 - Similar to other models comment of implied reduced zonality later in winter.
TEMP: December above normal most likely. Winter months above normal but milder Dec may imply colder later. Large cluster around normal also small cluster below normal
PPN: December above normal most likely. Winter months above normal (wetter Dec may imply less wet later in period). Slightly enhanced probs of being much wetter than normnal but only a small chance of being as wet as last winter.

UK - 101114 - note central N Atlantic SST below normal
TEMP: For N Ireland, Eire and W half Scotland near normal more likely elsewhere above normal probs 60-80%. For most of England and Wales enhanced probs of well above normal elsewhere similar probs well above or below normal.
PPN : Above normal more likely than below. Enhanced probs for well above (more than 40% for S Eire, S and SW England and SW Wales).
PSML: Pressure more likely below or well below normal than above normal


BCC China - 211114 - start date 1/11/14
TEMP: Season: near normal but hint of slightly below (anoms +0.1 to -0.1)
PPN: Season: near normal but hint of slightly below normal far N UK elsewhere slightly above


Korea APCC - 261114
Temp: Season slightly above normal
DEC normal or slightly above 2015 JAN normal or slightly above in N and E FEB normal or slightly above
PPN : Season near normal hint at above in N
DEC normal but above in NW of UK 2015 JAN near normal hint wetter in E and S FEB birnak hint beow normal in W


Japan JMA - 141114
Temp: Season slightly above normal
DEC slightly above normal 2015JAN slightly above normal FEB slightly below normal PPN : Season slightly above normal
DEC slightly above normal 2015JAN slightly above normal FEB Eire, N Ireland and Scotland slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above PMSL: Season below normal WSW
DEC below normal (WSW) 2015JAN below normal (WSW) FEB below normal only slightly in SW (WSW)

USA NASA GMAO GSFC - 151114
TEMP: Season slightly above
DEC normal but S of England below and N of Scotland above 2015JAN normal but central and S of England slightly below and N of Scotland above FEB normal but S England above
PPN : Season normal but NW UK below normal
DEC below normal only slightly in E 2015JAN normal but NW UK below FEB above normal only slightly in E


USA - IRI - 211114 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal most likely 40% prob but 45 to 50% prob in NW and SW of UK butno indication of a departure from normal ranges in E of England.
There are some slight increases in probs of excedence when taking base line years as 2000 to 2010 rather than 1980-2010 or longer time periods
PPN : no indication of a departure from normal ranges


Russia - 311014
Temp: near normal but 60% prob SW UK above normal
PPN : near normal but SW UK above normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 111114
Temp: above normal (1 to 2C)
PPN : near normal SW Eire above
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: above normal only slightly in NW UK.
PPN : Normal but far NE Scotland, also far SW England and SW Eire above normal


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL (NEW GFDL FLORa06 and b01 included March 2014), IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 111114
TEMP: SEASON: near normal in W elsewhere slightly above.

PPN: SEASON: near normal

NOTE: all mmebers of the NMME retain colder than N Atlantic Sea temps. GFDL-FLOR hints at colder in Jan and Feb but still ends up above normal for season.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date -
TEMP: SEASON: near normal in W elsewhere slightly above.


PPN: SEASON: SW UK and SW Eire above normal elsehere normal

CFS2 and NMME test graphics awaited
CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 PPN



NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





JAN FEB MAR 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 201114 - normal implies slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN normal FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: normal
JAN normal but above in Wales NE and far SE England FEB normal but below for SE Scotland England and Wales MAR normal but below for Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, Wales, SW England and SW Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141114
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN normal FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: normal
JAN normal but SW England, SW Wales and SW Eire above FEB mostly below normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland normal MAR normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091114
TEMP: Season: normal
2015 JAN normal but far SE England above FEB normal MAR normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW ENgland, S Wales, far SE England and far W Eire
2015 JAN normal but above for SW Eire S England and S Wales FEB above normal but N/NE Scotland and parts of E Midlands normal MAR normal but drier in SW England S Wales SW Eire and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311014
TEMP: Season: normal
JAN normal but S of England above (not SW) FEB normal but far SE England above MAR normal but W Midlans, E and S Wales and most of S two thids Eire colder than normal
PPN: Season: above normal but N Ireland, NE Scotland and parts of SE and E Eire normal
JAN above normal but parts of E England and SE Eire normal FEB NE Scotland SE Eire and central S England normal elsewhere above MAR normal but S third of UK above



UK - 101114
TEMP: Scotland, N Ireland and Eire similar probs for normal/above or below but elsewhere above normal more likely. Ehanced probs for well above normal except N Ireland N Eire and W Scotland.
PPN : Above normal most likely with enhanced probs for well above normal
PSML: Below or well below normal most likely


BCC China - 211114 - start date 1/11/14
TEMP: Season: near normal but hint of slightly above especially in N
PPN: Season: near normal but hint of slightly below normal


USA - IRI - 211114 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal most likely 40% prob but 45 to 50% prob in Midlands/Wales and NW of UK
PPN : no indication of a departure from normal ranges


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151114
TEMP: Season normal perhaps slightly below in Midlands
2015JAN normal but central and S of England slightly below and N of Scotland above FEB normal but S England above MAR below normal
PPN : Season
JAN normal but NW UK below FEB above normal only slightly in E MAR normal slightly above in S



FEB MAR APR 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 201114 - normal implies slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but SW Eire, Wales and SW England below normal
FEB normal but below for SE Scotland England and Wales MAR normal but below for Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, Wales, SW England and SW Midlands APR normakl but below in SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141114
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal
FEB mostly below normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland normal MAR normal APR N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091114
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in far SW England and far W EIre
FEB above normal but N/NE Scotland and parts of E Midlands normal MAR normal but drier in SW England S Wales SW Eire and W Scotland APR normal but above in SW Eire and far SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311014
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal but far SE England above MAR normal but W Midlans, E and S Wales and most of S two thids Eire colder than normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal except far SE England above
FEB NE Scotland SE Eire and central S England normal elsewhere above MAR normal but S third of UK above APR Below normal but NE England and S England normal



UK - 101114
TEMP: Scotland, N Ireland and Eire similar probs for normal/above or below but elsewhere above normal more likely. Ehanced probs for well above normal except N Ireland, N and W Eire and W Scotland.
PPN : Above normal most likely (N Scotland may be normal) with enhanced probs for well above normal
PSML: Below or well below normal most likely


BCC China - 211114 - start date 1/11/14
TEMP: Season: near normal or slightly above but in N above normal
PPN: Season: near normal - mixed slightly above/below


USA - IRI - 211114 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal most likely 40% prob but 45 to 50% prob in N of UK
PPN : no indication of a departure from normal ranges


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151114
TEMP: Season near normal
FEB normal but S England above MAR below normal APR normal but E England slightly above
PPN : Season near normal but N Scotland slightly below and SW UK plus S Eire slightly above
FEB above normal only slightly in E MAR normal slightly above in S APR normal slightly below in far NW



Spring MAR APR MAY 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comment -

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 201114 - normal implies slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but SW Eire and SW Scotland below normal
MAR normal but below for Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, Wales, SW England and SW Midlands APR normakl but below in SW Eire MAY normal locally below W Eire, SW Scotland central Midlands.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141114
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but above NW England and SW Scotland
MAR normal APR N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above MAY Scotland , N Ireland and E Eire above elswhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091114
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311014
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but SW Eire below



BCC China - 211114 - start date 1/11/14
TEMP: Season: near normal but slightly above in N and slightly below in S
PPN: Season: near normal - mixed slightly above/below


Korea APCC - 261114
Temp: Season near normal slightly above in NE and E
MAR normal APR normal or slightly above MAY normal
PPN : Season near normal
MAR normal hint wetter in E APR normal MAY normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151114
TEMP: Season near normal
MAR below normal APR normal but E England slightly above MAY normal or slightly above
PPN : Season near normal perhaps slightly above in S
MAR normal slightly above in S APR normal slightly below in far NW MAY normal


USA - IRI - 211114 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal most likely 40% prob but 45 to 50% prob in N of UK
PPN : no indication of a departure from normal ranges


CFS2 MAX MIN




CFS2 PPN





NMME 2MTEMP:



NMME PPN:





APR MAY JUN 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 201114 - normal implies slightly above normal
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: SW Eire below normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 141114
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 091114
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311014
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but Parts of S Eire and SW UK below



BCC China - 211114 - start date 1/11/14
TEMP: Season: near normal but slightly above in N and slightly below in S
PPN: Season: near normal - or slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151114
TEMP: Season
APR normal but E England slightly above MAY normal or slightly above JUN Normal but W Eire below and E UK slightly above
PPN : Season
APR normal slightly below in far NW MAY normal JUN normal or slightly above



Summer JUN JUY AUG 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



BCC China - 211114 - start date 1/11/14
TEMP: Season: near normal or slightly below
PPN: Season: near normal or slightly above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 151114
TEMP:
JUN Normal but W Eire below and E UK slightly above JLY Normal but W Eire below and E UK slightly above
PPN : Season
JUN normal or slightly above JLY below but normal in far NE Scotland and E England


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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