SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - April 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 280520 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

FINAL UPDATE FOR MAY complete
Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) (not available)
KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: CPTEC, Pretoria, Beijing not available.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010520 070520 110520 170520240520) Temperature graphics (070520), E3 graphics (110520), Russia 300420, CanSips 300420, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060520, ECMWF monthly 060520, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 070520, NMME graphics 080520, UKMO seasonal 110520, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP) 130520, BCC China 150520, JAMSTEC 150520, USA - IRI 170520, Korea APCC 230520, UKMO Contingency 260520
Graphics via WMO: BoM, Moscow, DWD, CMC Montreal 110520. Japan JMA 120520. UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Tokyo 130520, Toulouse, ECMWF, WMO multi ensemble 150520

International IMME no longer available from NCEP - see WMO graphics and Copernicus

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 190520 - The main theme is for above normal temperatures although some indication that they may only be slightly above. August and possibly June could have the higher anomalies in the south. Rainfall very variable monthly detail from the models but probably below average for the season except perhaps in the North. Hints at August being above average in places, mainly in the south.




NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: ormal but below in Eurem N Ireland S Scotland N England, N Midlands Wales and Cornwall.
JUN Below normal but Wales and SE England normal JUL S and E Eire, Wales and Midlands below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG Southern Highlands above, below in Eire, N ireland N and NW England Wales NW Midlands and Cornwall elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170520
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN above normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in Midlands N Wales and SE England
JUN S and W Eire normal elsewhere below normal JUL England Wales and Eire below normal, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG normal but above in Eire SW England and Midlands, NE England and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110520
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN above normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but England and Wales below normal
JUN Eire normal elsewhere below normal JUL W Scotlnd above. Below in SE England SE Scotland, England and Wales AUG normal but above in W Scotland and S Eire and below in Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070520
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal but above in Scotland N Ireland NW Egland and E Midlands JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: NW Scotland above. Below in S Scotland, England and Wales elsewhere normal
JUN below normal JUL NW Scotland and NW Eire above. Below in SE Eire, Wales, England and SE Scotland elsewhere normal AUG normal but above in W Eire and W Scotland and below in N Wales and NW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010520
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal but N Scotland above JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but N Scotland above
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland and below in N Wales and N England
JUN NW Scotland and SW England above NE England below elsewhere normal JUL most of Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire above, N Wales, N England and SE Scotland below elsewhere normal AUG normnal locally above in S Midlands and below in N Wales and NE Scotland SEP below in W Eire Scotland N England W Midlands Wales and SW England elsewhere normal OCT above in NW Scotland elsewhere normal or below.




UKMO contingency - 260520
June: Above or well above average -only about 5% of solutions are near or below average. Median value about 1.5C above average.
Season: Above or well above average - only about 5% of solutions are near or below average. Median value about 0.9C above average.
PPN:
June: Two clusters below average and one above, below average most likely about a 70% prob.
Season: Slightly below abover is possible. Distribution only slightly moved towards below average with a couple of solutions above climatology. Given a foprecast drier than average June then July and/or August could be wetter than average.



Korea APCC - 230520
Temp: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season no signal but far SW may be below
JUN N belopw elsewhere no signal JUL no signal AUG no signal



USA - IRI - 170520 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: mostly above normal but SW and W normal/no signal
PPN : S locally above N mostly below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN Eire below elsewhere above JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN N above S below JUL below normal AUG below normal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble)
JAMSTEC 150520
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: normal but Eire and N Ireland below



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 130520
TEMP: Scotland and SE England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: near normal but no real signal
PMSL: N Scotland normal elsewhere above
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: S Eire, NW and SW of UK below normal elsewhere normal
PPN: W and NW above normal - highest probs in NW - elsewhwere normal/no signal
PMSL: S above elsewhere normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: normal but NW Scotland above
PPN: S above normal - highest probs in SW and W - elsewhwere normal/no signal
PMSL: above normal especially in S
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: W Eire and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above with highest probs fopr above in SE half of England
PPN: S below N normal
PMSL: above normal especially in S
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: N normal S above - highest probs for above in S Eire and SW England
PPN: normal/no signal
PMSL: above normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size - elsewhere normal/no signal
TEMP: above normal
PPN: S Eire below, perhaps all of Ireland and SW UK.
PMSL: above normal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: mostly abover normal - note anomalous cold area in N Sea (did the same last year and was wrong).
PPN: N England below elsewhere normal/no signal
PMSL: normal/no signal




Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
JMA 120520
Temp: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season N above S below normal
JUN NW above normal elsewhere below JUL SE half England below elsewhere above normal AUG N above S below normal
PMSL: Season above normal (Slack WNW)
JUN above normal (Slack ridge) JUL N below S above (WNW) AUG N below S above (WNW)



UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 110520 -
TEMP: Above normal most likely, SE England may be normal. Probs for well above normal 25-40% range
PPN : Mixed signals - N Scotland could be below also SE England - elsewhere no definte signals
PSML: Above normal most likely, especially in S.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060520
TEMP:
JUN E England and SE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JUL above normal AUG normal locally above in S Midlands N England and parts of E Scotland
PPN :
JUN N below S above JUL N above S below AUG above normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal but W Scotland, W Wales, N Ireland and Eire below JUL mostly near normal locally above in W Highland Scotland AUG NW Eire and NW Scotland normal elsewhere below



Russia 300420
Temp: Eire and N Ireland below normal elsewhere normal or no signal
PPN : no signal but risk of above in south or SW of England.



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 070520
TEMP: SEASON: Above normal (GEM NEMO has normal in East abiove in West)
JUN above normal all models except GEM NEMO = normal and below in SE England JUL above normal all models AUG above normal all models except CFS2 has locally normal.
PPN: SEASON: below normal - 4 out of 7 models. 3 out of 7 normal.
JUN normal or below JUL normal or below AUG normal or below



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN7 TN2 TN3

TN8 TN5 TN6

NASA anomaly .
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa CFS2 mean height, anomaly 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


WMO May 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined. 10 models.
200


Canada monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

BOM monthly
200

UKMO monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200

Toulouse monthly
200







2020 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240520
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUL S and E Eire, Wales and Midlands below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG Southern Highlands above, below in Eire, N ireland N and NW England Wales NW Midlands and Cornwall elsewhere normal SEP normal locally above in Se Eire OCT N Ireland , N Eire, Scotland and N England below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170520
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUN S and W Eire normal elsewhere below normalelsewhere normal AUG normal but above in Eire SW England and Midlands, NE England and W Scotland SEP normal locally below in SW Englanf SW Scotland N Ireland and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110520
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUL W Scotlnd above. Below in SE England SE Scotland, England and Wales AUG normal but above in W Scotland and S Eire and below in Wales SEP normal but E Eire, S Scotland England and Wales below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070520
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUL NW Scotland and NW Eire above. Below in SE Eire, Wales, England and SE Scotland elsewhere normal AUG normal but above in W Eire and W Scotland and below in N Wales and NW England SEP normal but below in N Ireland SW/S Scotland, Wales, Midlands and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010520
TEMP: l
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN:
JUL most of Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire above, N Wales, N England and SE Scotland below elsewhere normal AUG normnal locally above in S Midlands and below in N Wales and NE Scotland SEP below in W Eire Scotland N England W Midlands Wales and SW England elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG below normal SEP below normal



UKMO - 110520 -
TEMP: Normal or above normal most likely. Probs for well above normal mainly 25-40% range
PPN : Mixed signals - N of UK and N of Eire above normal, S normal
PSML: Normal most likely.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060520
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG normal locally above in S Midlands N England and parts of E Scotland SEP E England normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JUL N above S below AUG above normal SEP Eire, Scotland and N England below elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL mostly nesar normal locally above in W Highland Scotland AUG NW Eire and NW Scotland normal elsewhere below SEP normal but S Wales SW Englnd and E England below





2020 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240520
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG Southern Highlands above, below in Eire, N ireland N and NW England Wales NW Midlands and Cornwall elsewhere normal SEP normal locally above in SE Eire OCT N Ireland , N Eire, Scotland and N England below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170520
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG normal but above in Eire SW England and Midlands, NE England and W Scotland SEP normal locally below in SW Englanf SW Scotland N Ireland and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110520
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but above in S Eire Wales and S of England and W Scotland
PPN:
AUG normal but above in W Scotland and S Eire and below in Wales SEP normal but E Eire, S Scotland England and Wales below OCT E normal W above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070520
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above normal
PPN:
AUG normal but above in W Eire and W Scotland and below in N Wales and NW England SEP normal but below in N Ireland SW/S Scotland, Wales, Midlands and N England OCT E UK normal W UK and Eire above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010520
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but N Scotland above
PPN:
AUG normnal locally above in S Midlands and below in N Wales and NE Scotland SEP below in W Eire Scotland N England W Midlands Wales and SW England elsewhere normal OCT above in NW Scotland elsewhere normal or below.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal SEP below normal OCT below normal



UKMO - 110520 -
TEMP: Normal or above normal most likely.
PPN : Mixed signals - N of UK above normal, SW UK normal elsewhere no signal
PSML: S above N no signal.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060520
TEMP:
AUG normal locally above in S Midlands N England and parts of E Scotland SEP E England normal elsewhere above OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG above normal SEP Eire, Scotland and N England below elsewhere above OCT above normal



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT normal but E England above normal
PPN :
AUG NW Eire and NW Scotland normal elsewhere below SEP normal but S Wales SW Englnd and E England below OCT E Englnd normal elsewhere above normal





2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 190520 - Temperature normal but trending above normal through the Autumn. Rainfall mixed signals above normal in the north and below normal in the south but hints that October could be wetter generally.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240520
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally above in Se Eire OCT N Ireland , N Eire, Scotland and N England below elsewhere normal NOV above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170520
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally below in SW England SW Scotland N Ireland and SW Eire OCT normal but below in SW England W Wales Scotland and S and W Eire NOV NE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110520
TEMP: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
SEP normal OCT normal but above in S Eire Wales and S of England and W Scotland NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and below in S and NE England
SEP normal but E Eire, S Scotland England and Wales below OCT E normal W above NOV below normal but W and NW Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070520
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above in far NW Scotland and locally below in central southern

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010520
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland and below in SE Scotland and W Cornwall



USA - IRI - 170520 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: mostly normal/no signal but Eire, N Ireland and Wales above normal
PPN : S locally above N mostly below



Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: SE above elsewhere mostly below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
SEP below normal OCT below normal NOV below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060520
TEMP:
SEP E England normal elsewhere above OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP Eire, Scotland and N England below elsewhere above OCT above normal NOV Fife/Pethshire above elsewhere below normal



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT normal but E England above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal but S Wales SW Englnd and E England below OCT E Englnd normal elsewhere above normal NOV NW Scotland above, Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080420
TEMP: SEASON: above normal (NCAR normal, locally below in NW but above in S of England)
SEP above normal (NCAR and NCEP normal) OCT above normal (NCAR and CANCM4 normal) NOV above normal (NCAR normal locally below in NW and above in SE)
PPN: SEASON: N Scotland above normal (2 out of 7 others normal) elsewhere below
SEP normal perhaps above in NW and Below in S OCT NW above SE below location of split uncertain NOV NW above SE below location of split uncertain

NASA anomaly
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN17 TN12 TN13

TN18 TN15 TN16


2020 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240520
TEMP: Season: Wales, Midlands, SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170520
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110520
TEMP: Season: above normal but S Eire normal
PPN: Season: normal but NW Scotland above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070520
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in S and W Scotland Wales and Midlands
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010520
TEMP: Season: normal but above in W Scotland and most of England and Wales
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland and below in SE Scotland and W Cornwall



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV below normal DEC below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060520
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC normal
PPN :
OCT above normal NOV Fife/Pethshire above elsewhere below normal DEC N Ireland and central belt Scotland above elsewhere below normal



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
OCT normal but E England above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal but Scotland and N England normal
PPN :
OCT E Englnd normal elsewhere above normal NOV NW Scotland above, Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere normal DEC W Wales, W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240520
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: abiove normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170520
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in Eire and N Ireland
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire, Wales Midlands and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110520
TEMP: Season: NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but Wales SW England W Midlands and Eire below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV below normal DEC below normal JAN N above S below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060520
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal JAN normal
PPN :
NOV Fife/Pethshire above elsewhere below normal DEC N Ireland and central belt Scotland above elsewhere below normal JAN Eire above normal elsewhere below



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal but Scotland and N England normal JAN most of Scotland and E England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
NOV NW Scotland above, Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere normal DEC W Wales, W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal JAN NW above SW below elsewhere normal





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary - 190520 - Temperature above normal but February nearer normal. Rainfall above average but parts of the south in January and all but the north in February could have below average rainfall. Snowfall probably below average except Scottish mountains.



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
DEC above normal but Scotland and N England normal JAN most of Scotland and E England normal elsewhere above normal FEB normal locally below in NW EIre, Wales, W Midlands, Somerset, Dorset, Berks, Wilts and Hampshire
PPN :
DEC W Wales, W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal JAN NW above SW below elsewhere normal FEB mostly below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB S nearer normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
DEC below normal JAN N above S below FEB below normal



JAMSTEC 150520
Temp: Season: SE above normal NW below
PPN : Season: above normal




2021 JAN FEB MAR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB S nearer normal elsewhere above normal MAR normal or below
PPN:
JAN N above S below FEB below normal MAR below normal



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
JAN most of Scotland and E England normal elsewhere above normal FEB normal locally below in NW EIre, Wales, W Midlands, Somerset, Dorset, Berks, Wilts and Hampshire MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN NW above SW below elsewhere normal FEB mostly below normal MAR NE Scotland below elsewhere normal





2021 FEB MAR APR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP:
FEB S nearer normal elsewhere above normal MAR normal or below APR near normal but W below M
PPN:
FEB below normal MAR below normal APR N above S below



CanSIPS - 300420
TEMP:
FEB normal locally below in NW EIre, Wales, W Midlands, Somerset, Dorset, Berks, Wilts and Hampshire MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB mostly below normal MAR NE Scotland below elsewhere normal APR normal but parts of S England below





2021 MAR APR MAY


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150520 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly above normal
MAR normal or below APR near normal but W below MAY near normal but W below
PPN: Season: NW above SE below
MAR below normal APR N above S below MAY above normal




NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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