SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

Follow @T2mike
Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - April 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 290519(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2, Korea APC, BCC China not available 180519


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (020519 080519 170519 280519) Temperature graphics (170519) E3 graphics (170519), Russia 010519, CanSips 010519, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050519, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), NMME and CFS2 graphics 090519, UKMO seasonal 180519, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC) 180519, BCC China 180519, International IMME 180519, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 180519 , Japan JMA 180519, JAMSTEC ,UKMO Contingency 260519, Korea AP 290519C
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, CPTEC, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF, Beijing, WMO multi ensemble.180519.
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 180519 - warmer than average summer but uncertain rainfall, fairly even split between drier and wetter solutions but some consistent indication for longer drier periods than average but perhaps some heavier rain events. Probably less than average wet days but rain totals locally may ber above average. Pressure likely to be above average



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280519
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales, SW, S and SE England
JUN normal but S and SW England above JUL N and E Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above AUG normal locally above in SW and SE England
PPN: Season: normal but below in Devon [arts of Midlands and SE England
JUN Normal but NE Scotland above and Wales and England below JUL below normal AUG normal locally above inn scotland and NW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170519
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Scotland and parts of S of England
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUN normal but W Eire above and SW England below JUL normal locally above in central S England AUG normal but above in Midlands and SE England and Argyll/Central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and S/SE England
JUN normal locally above in far NW and far SE JUL above normal AUG normal but loally above inn SW and S of England
PPN: Season: normal but below in SW England and Wales
JUN normal but above in S Eire, N England and most of Scotland JUL N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere below normal AUG normal but below in S and SW Eire SW England W Wales N England and S and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020519
TEMP: Season: above normal in NW Scotland Wales, southern third of England
JUN normal locally above in N Scotland and SE England JUL above normal AUG normal but all S of England above
PPN: Season: normal but below in Wales and S of England
JUN S below, S Eire N England and N/NW Scotland above elsewhere normal JUL mostly above normal but N half Eire, N Ireland N Scotland and N England normal AUG Eire, N Ireland S and SE England and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
JUN Above normal JUL Above normal AUG Above normal
PPN:
JUN below normal but N normal or above JUL England and Wales above elsewhere below AUG below normal S



UKMO contingency - 260519
TEMP:
June: Above normal temperatures likely. Chance of below normal less than 10%. Most likely solutions sit at around 1 C above normal but a few forecast solutions are above the climatic range.
Season: Above normal temperatures likely. Forecast distribution shifted around 1 deg above average. Can of course be milder nights not only warmer days.
PPN:
June: Distribution of ensemble forecasts group at slightly below normal, near normal and above normal so no clear or simple message.
Season: split in solutions with very few near average but two groupings one above and one below average hence again no clear forecast for rainfall.




Korea APCC - 290519
Temp: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season no signal
JUN no signal JUL no signal AUG no signal



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 180519
Temp: Season: W below normal E above
PPN : Season: S normal elsewhere above

USA - IRI - 180519 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: E above elsewhere no signal
PPN : no signal



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France). Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 180519
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: above normal
PPN: normal
PMSL: above normal




UKMO - 180519 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: above normal
PPN : S near normal elsewhere no signal
PSML: above normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 180519
Temp: normal but above in SW UK, N and E UK
PPN : normal
PMSL: above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but E of UK above
PPN : normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season below normal
JUN S above elsewhere below JUL below normal AUG below normal
PMSL: Season above normal
JUN above normal (W) JUL above normal (W) AUG above normal (W sloack)



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050519
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN below normal JUL below normal but NW Scotland above normal AUG below normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
JUN England Wales and E Scotland above elsewhere normal JUL Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal but below in S Wales and S of England JUL normal AUG normal in Scotland and N Ireland elsewhere below



Russia 010519
Temp: no signal but above normal in SW England and near N Sea coasts and near normal NW Scotland
PPN : no signal but hint at above normal




11 April 2019 - Due to availablibity of more EU area seasonal maps the global area graphics will no longer be presented on this web site and verification pages from April 2019, unless requested. UK map areas will be expaned to EU area.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080519
TEMP: above normal
PPN rate: one model below normal others normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 180519
TEMP: season - above normak
PPN rate: Season - NW normal elsewhere below




EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T

P P P

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib CFS2 (NMME data set) Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T
P P P
200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly 270419
200


NASA anomaly 050519.
200

SW ENGLAND ONLY :
Summary of 3 month data data from WMO at low resolution. No signal = similar probs for above/normal/below
WMO multi ensemble
TEMP abiove normal PPN no signal
ECMWF
TEMP above normal PPN normal
DWD
TEMP above normal all months PPN above normal - J normal J no signal A wetter
CMC
TEMP W normal E above PPN normal
BoM 100519
TEMP Below normal all months PPN above normal all months
Russia 100519
TEMP normal J below J above A above PPN above normal J above J normal A no signal
Brazil 100519
TEMP above normal all months PPN above normal J above J above A normal
UKMO
TEMP above normal PPN no signal
Seoul
TEMP above normal PPN no signal
Pretoria
TEMP below normal PPN above normal
Tokyo
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Toulouse
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Beijing
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Washington
TEMP above normal PPN below normal



WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability of anomaly.
200

DWD monthly 100519
200

BOM monthly 100519
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly 100519
200

Moscow monthly 090419
200

Canada monthly 100519
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly 110419
200

UKMO monthly 120419
200

SEOUL monthly 120419
200

Washington monthly 120419
200

Pretoria monthly 150419
200

Tokyo monthly 180419
200

Beijing monthly 180419
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO 210419
200

Toulouse monthly 210419
200



2019 JUL AUG SEP


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280519
TEMP:
JUL N and E Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above AUG normal locally above in SW and SE England SEP normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG normal locally above inn scotland and NW England SEP normal but below in N aW Scotland and SW Eire, locally above i9n central Eire and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170519
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG normal SEP normal but NW Scotland above
PPN:
JUL normal locally above in central S England AUG normal but above in Midlands and SE England and Argyll/Central Scotland SEP normal locally below in some parts of W England

USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP: :
JUL above normal AUG normal but loally above inn SW and S of England SEP normal but above in Central Lowland Scotland, all S of England and middle of Eire
PPN:
JUL N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere below normal AUG normal but below in S and SW Eire SW England W Wales N England and S and E Scotland SEP nornal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020519
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG normal but all S of England above SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL mostly above normal but N half Eire, N Ireland N Scotland and N England normal AUG Eire, N Ireland S and SE England and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above normal SEP normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
JUL Above normal AUG Above normal SEP Above normal
PPN:
JUL England and Wales above elsewhere below AUG below normal SEP below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050519
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL below normal but NW Scotland above normal AUG below normal SEP Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normnal elsewhere below




CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
JUL Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal AUG normal in Scotland and N Ireland elsewhere below SEP normal





2019 AUG SEP OCT


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280519
TEMP:
AUG normal locally above in SW and SE England SEP normal OCT S Eire and central S England normal elsewhere above
PPN:
AUG normal locally above inn scotland and NW England SEP normal but below in N aW Scotland and SW Eire, locally above i9n central Eire and N Ireland OCT Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170519
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal but NW Scotland above OCT Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
PPN:
AUG normal but above in Midlands and SE England and Argyll/Central Scotland SEP normal locally below in some parts of W England OCT normal locally below in some parts of W England and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP:
AUG normal but loally above inn SW and S of England SEP normal but above in Central Lowland Scotland, all S of England and middle of Eire OCT normal but above in S and SE England and most of Scotland.
PPN:
AUG normal but below in S and SW Eire SW England W Wales N England and S and E Scotland SEP nornal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland OCT normal but below in N Ireland and W Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020519
TEMP:
AUG normal but all S of England above SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG Eire, N Ireland S and SE England and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above normal SEP normal OCT normal locally above in S Eire, SW England and W Wales.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
Above normal AUG Above normal SEP Above normal OCT Above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal SEP below normal OCT below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050519
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG below normal SEP Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normnal elsewhere below OCT above normal




CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal but SW Eire normal
PPN :
AUG normal in Scotland and N Ireland elsewhere below SEP normal OCT normal but below in N Scotland





2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 180519 - consistent indication for above normal temperatures. Rainfall signal varied but hints at weetter than normal for season but chance oif drier spell for some areas either in September or perhaps more likely in October away from the S of UK.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280519
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Scotland, NW ENgland Midlands and SE England
SEP normal OCT S Eire and central S England normal elsewhere above NOV above normal
PPN: Season:
SEP normal but below in N aW Scotland and SW Eire, locally above i9n central Eire and N Ireland OCT Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere normal NOV normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170519
TEMP: Season: N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
SEP normal but NW Scotland above OCT Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal

SEP normal locally below in some parts of W England OCT normal locally below in some parts of W England and N Ireland NOV normal locally above in parts of S Eire and NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Eire and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
SEP Above normal OCT Above normal NOV Above normal
PPN:
SEP below normal OCT below normal NOV below normal



Korea APCC - 290519
Temp: Season above normal
SEP N Scotland above elsewhere no signal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN : Season England and Wales above normal elsewhere no signal
SEP no signal OCT no signal NOV no signal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050519
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normnal elsewhere below OCT above normal NOV above normal but N Scotland below




CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal but SW Eire normal NOV above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN :
SEP normal OCT normal but below in N Scotland NOV N below S above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080519
TEMP: season : above normal
PPN rate: above normal 2 models, below 1, normal 4 models.



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 180515
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: Season - normal



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib CFS2 (NMME data set) Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly 090419
T T T
P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200



2019 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland SE Scotland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire SW Scotland Wales NW and SW England.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
OCT Above normal NOV Above normal DEC Above normal
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV below normal DEC S above elsewhere below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050519
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT above normal NOV above normal but N Scotland below DEC above normal




CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
OCT above normal but SW Eire normal NOV above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal DEC bove normal but SW England Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN :
OCT normal but below in N Scotland NOV N below S above DEC normal but NW Uk and NW Eire below and SW UK above





2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 170519
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in Wales, Midlands and N Scotland

USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050519
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN normal but locally below normal in S of England
PPN :
NOV above normal but N Scotland below DEC above normal JAN below normal in S Eire, S Wales, S Midlands, S of England, S and Central Scotland and S Highlands, elsewhere above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal JAN Above normal
PPN:
NOV below normal DEC S above elsewhere below JAN Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
NOV above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal DEC bove normal but SW England Eire and N Ireland normal JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV N below S above DEC normal but NW Uk and NW Eire below and SW UK above JAN S Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal





2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary - 180519 - limited data suggest above normal temperatures and normal rainfall but above in parts of S and SW UK overalll.




CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
DEC above normal but SW England Eire and N Ireland normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC normal but NW Uk and NW Eire below and SW UK above JAN S Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal FEB below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal but S England normal
PPN:
DEC S above elsewhere below JAN Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above FEB above normal




2020 JAN FEB MAR




CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN :
JAN S Wales and S of England above elsewhere normal FEB below normal MAR normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal but S England normal MAR Above normal
PPN:
JAN Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above FEB above normal MAR mostly above normal




2020 FEB MAR APR




CanSIPS - 010519
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal but W Eire normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR normal APR normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
FEB Above normal but S England normal MAR Above normal APR Above normal M
PPN:
FEB above normal MAR mostly above normal APR N Scotland below, elsewhere above




2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 040619 milder/warmer than normal but with near normal or slightly above normal rain.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 030619 very delayed -
TEMP:
MAR Above normal APR Above normal MAY Above normal
PPN:
MAR mostly above normal APR N Scotland below, elsewhere above MAY N Scotland above elsewhere below





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data