SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - April 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 300517 (SAWS added late)(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4, CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4, UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO plot when available. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME ENS Mean UKMO Tropical N Atlantic

ENSO CFS latest


Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
All model data in for May
Not available:, India Met Office IMO.


Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010517 070517 130517 260517), CanSips 300517, Russia 040517, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050517, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and CFS2 and NMME Graphics 080517 (except NMME z200 and Max Min not available), Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 090517, UKMO seasonal 110517, BCC China 140517, International IMME 140517, KMA 150417, Copernicus EU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF), Japan JMA 160517, USA - IRI 190517, Korea APCC 280517, UKMO Contingency 300517. South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF added 050617



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th



Summer JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 150517 - Above normal temperatures and possibly well above normal values are indicated, strongest signal is for parts of S to be well above. (An exception to the blanket signal for above normal is from Meteo France which suggests some areas near the East coast and perhaps also the South coasts may be cooler than normal, most likely in June and early July). Implied increased frequency of easterly winds due to higher than normal pressure, especially across the N of UK with some doubt about the S due to lower pressure signal over France and Med extending further north in the Meteo France output. Rainfall signal as usual more mixed but fairly good signal for below normal, perhaps highest signal in the N and W with risk of nearer normal in S. Some risk of above normal in far SE. Month to month data may suggest June wetter than July.



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - added late 050617
TEMP: below normal
PPN: below normal
SAWS SCM 40 members. - added 050617
TEMP: above normal
PPN: below normal risk norm in S England and perhaps above in far S/N France


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolutin output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260517
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SW Eire, N Ireland W and central Scotland WAles, W Midlands and all S of England
JUN Eire and NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal in NE and SE Scotland, N and NE England, otherwise above normal AUG above normal SW England elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Eire, parts of N Ireland, W and Central Scotland
JUN Normal but above in S half of Eire central and W Scotland JUL above in NW Scotland, below in SW England E Scotland and SE England/E Anglia otherwise normal AUG Cornwall below normal, above norml in N half Eire, N Ireland N and NW Midlands and most of Scotland except NE, elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130517
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN Normal in England, Wales S and E Scotland elsewhere above normal JUL normal but above in SW England AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and below in Westcountry.
JUN normal but locally above in NW Scotland and SW Eire and locally below in W Midlands JUL normal but above in NW Scotland and below for Wales, Midlands and all S England AUG normal but above in Scotland and N/NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070517
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal but N half Scoland above normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland and W Eire
JUN normal but above in SW Eire N England and Highland Scotland JUL normal locally below in E Scotland and NE England but above in W Scotlan and NW Eire/W of N Ireland AUG normal locally above in SE Eire, Cornwall, SE Midlands and SE England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010517
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal but N half Scoland above normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands and W Scotland
JUN normal but above in SW England, N Midlands, N England, most of Eire and most of Scotland JUL normal locally below in SE Scotland Wales and S/SW Eire and above in NW Scotland AUG Normal but below ion NE Scotland and above in S half Eire and all S of England (S of M4)




UKMO Contingency 300517
TEMP:
June: Chance of below below normal is much reduced with over 60% of solutions above normal. There are three clusters one arounf normal, second above normal and third over a degree above normal. The whole distribtion is shifted warmer than normal
season: Two lobes to the pattern one near normal and one well above normal. Overall pattern shifted above normal with prob of below normal less than 20%. Summer could be warmest for UK since 2006.
PPN:
June: Two cluster, one near or slightly below normal and the other well above normal. On Balance above normal more likely.
season: Two cluster one below normal and the other just above which may mean a prolematic split across the UK between wetter and drier types. Given wetter June remainder of summer could be drier.




Korea APCC - 280517
Temp: Season Above normal especially in NW
JUN SE England no signal elsewhere above normaL JUL Above normal AUG Above normal
PPN : Season no signal but locally below in NE Scotland
JUN no signal JUL no signal locally below in NE Scotland AUG no signal locally below in E Scotland


Output based on recalibrated NMME (since April 2017).
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 190517 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal (differes from raw NMME which has above normal)
PPN : Below normal for parts of Central S England, N and NE England and NE Scotland. Above normal in parts of SW England and SW Eire. Elsewhere normal. (differs from raw NMME for season)


Japan JMA (23 March 2017 - 50 member ensemble accumulated 50 members will be composed of the set of 24 members (Tuesday) and the set of 26 members (Wednesday) at 55km resolution 100 levels 0.01hPa top). Hindcast 1981-2010
Japan JMA 160517
Temp: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season S of England above normal elsewhere below normal
JUN above normal JUL SW England above elsewhere below AUG below normal
PMSL: Season England and Wales below elsewhere above (Weak WNW)
JUN above normal (Weak WNW) JUL N above S below (weak NW) AUG N above S below (weak NW)



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150517
Comment 150517-French have High pressure further north and lower pressure over France and S UK rather than over France and Med as is EC and UK. Consequently more cyclonic cloudier and colder pattern.
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile. No signal anomaly +/-20mm)
TEMP: above normal 40-50% UT, 30 to 40% S and W UQ.
PPN: NW below normal (LT) elsewhere no signal
PMSL: N UK above normal (UT) elsewhere no signal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size - 150517
TEMP: 40 to 60% prob above normal (UT), over 60% in SE England. 30-40% UQ in S/SE England
PPN: mixed picture but 40-50% in LT Eire, N Ireland, N and W Scotland and N England. UT in far SE England. In summary below normal in N and NW half of UK, risk of above in far SE, elsewhere no signal.
PMSL: N half above normal (UT)
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size - 150517
TEMP: Above normal (UT probs 50% in S to 70% in N and W.) Mostly 40 to 50% prob UQ.
PPN: E and S 40 to 50% LT, elsewhere no signal. W Wales 40% LQ. Summary below normal in S and E risk of above in Eire.
PMSL: Central England abave normal (UT), S England and S Eire near normal (MT) elsewhere no signal. Central Eire 40% UT.
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size - 150517
TEMP: LT probs (below normal) 40 to 50% parts of Eire S and E UK and N Scotland. Elsewgere no signal
PPN: Below normal in N and NW risk of above in S of UK. N half Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland 40 5o0 50% LT with W Scotland 60%. S England 40 to 50% UT. W Scotland 30 to 40$ LQ.
PMSL: S of UK and Eire 40 to 60% prob below normal (LT) elsewhere no signal but far N and to the N 40 tpo 60% prob above normal (UT)


KMA - 150517
TEMP :Season 60-70% prob above normal
JUN 40 to 60% prob above normal SW UK 60 to 70% prob above normal JUL 50 to 60% prob above normal SW UK 60 to 70% prob above normal AUG 5 to 60% prob above normal but N and W UK and Eire 60 to 70% prob above normal
PPN: Season Eire, Wales and W Midlands below elsewhere no signal
JUN SE England above Eire, N Ireland Wales and W Midlands below elsewhere no signa JUL SW and NE Scotland above elsewhere no signal AUG no signal
PMSL: Season no signal for UK and Eire - but high probs below normal over S Europe
JUN no signal JUL no signal but S of UK 50 to 60% prob near normal AUG no signal but SW of England of UK 40 to 50% prob near normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal (NW 0.5 SE 1.5 anomaly) JUL above normal (Scotland 0.5 to 1C elsewhere 1.5 to 2C) AUG above normal
PPN: Season: Far NE Scotland above elsewhere below normal
JUN S England below elsewhere above JUL well below normal but ar N Scotland slightly below AUG Eire, N Ireland, N England and Scotland below elsewhere above normal




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 110517
TEMP: Above median most of England and Wales 60 to 80% elsewhere over 80%. Less than 20% prob below normal. Enhanced probs upper quintile (more than 40%)
PPN : W and NW Eire above normal elsewhere below normal most likely. Enhanced probs lower quartile except Eire and NW scotland but caution similar enhancd probs for upper quartile in Eire, N Ireland, Wales NW England and central Scotland.
PSML: Above median most likely except N Scotland and N Ireland. Above normal (tircile) with the far S nearer. Emhabnced probs for well above normal.


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 090517
Temp: normal locally above in SW Eire, SW England and E Anglia
PPN : Above normal in Eastern half of Eire and N Ireland, Wales and England except NE. Other areas normal
PMSL: Above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: Above normal but normal in NW England, Scotland, NW Eire and N Ireland
PPN : normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050517
TEMP: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season normal
JUN normal locally below in far SE England JUL normal locally below in N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland AUG NW Scotland normal elsewhere below normal


Russia 040517
Temp: mostly no signal / similar probs above/normal/below but Eire, N Ireland and far SW above normal
PPN : no signal / similar probs above/normal/below


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP: Season above normal
JUN England and Wales above elsewhere normal JUL above but well above in SE AUG above but well above in SE
PPN : season normal
JUN Locally below in SE England elsewhere normal JUL locally normal in NW Scotland and NW Eire elsewhere below AUG normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080517
See graphcs below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal

PPN: season - NW above normal, E Scotland below, elsewhere normal



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 140517
TEMP: season - slightly above normal (mnonthly data slightly above normal)

PPN rate: season - near normal (mnonthly data near normal)



Graphics 080517
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P



NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2017 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260517
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal in NE and SE Scotland, N and NE England, otherwise above normal AUG above normal SW England elsewhere normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Cornwall and SE England, but above in Argyll
JUL above in NW Scotland, below in SW England E Scotland and SE England/E Anglia otherwise normal AUG Cornwall below normal, above norml in N half Eire, N Ireland N and NW Midlands and most of Scotland except NE, elsewhere normal SEP normal but below in SW Eire, Wales and most of southern and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130517
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in SW England AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in NW Scotland and below in SW England
JUL normal but above in NW Scotland and below for Wales, Midlands and all S England AUG normal but above in Scotland and N/NE England SEP normal but below in SE Eire, SW England and S Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070517
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Argyll
JUL normal locally below in E Scotland and NE England but above in W Scotlan and NW Eire/W of N Ireland AUG normal locally above in SE Eire, Cornwall, SE Midlands and SE England. SEP normal locally below in S Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010517
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NE Scotland and above in Argyll
JUL normal locally below in SE Scotland Wales and S/SW Eire and above in NW Scotland AUG Normal but below in NE Scotland and above in S half Eire and all S of England (S of M4) SEP normallocally above in N Ireland and W/SW Scotland



Output based on recalibrated NMME (since April 2017).
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 190517 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: S above normal elsewher no signal
PPN : mostly no signal but above in Wales, W Midlands and SW Eire but below in NE Eire and perhaps NE England/SE Scotland


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150517
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal UT and UQ
PPN: below normal in NW
PMSL: Above normal in N (UT).
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: N and W near normal (MT) S and E above normal (UT). S of England UQ
PPN: SE England and NE Eire/N Ireland below normal LT.
PMSL: Above normal in N (UT)
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal UT 60 to 100%, UQ 50 to 70%.
PPN: Below normal in E and NW Wales/E Eire (LT and LQ) elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Above normal over N Sea (UT and UQ)
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal UT and UQ
PPN: Eire and northern two thirds of UK below normal LT and in NW LQ. SW near normal MT. SE England above normal UT and risk UQ.
PMSL: Eire and northern two thirds of UK above normal UT, far N UQ.


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL above normal (Scotland 0.5 to 1C elsewhere 1.5 to 2C) AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN: Season: far N above elsewhere below or well below
JUL well below normal but ar N Scotland slightly below AUG Eire, N Ireland, N England and Scotland below elsewhere above normal SEP N Scotland above elsewhere below




UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 110517
TEMP: More than 80% prob above normal except London area more than 60%. Enhnaced probs upper quintile, above 40% and above 55% for Cornwall W Wales Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland.
PPN : Turciles suggest wetter in NW, Drier in S mear normal in E England elsewhere no signal. Lower quintile cover many areas except central England and kost of Scotland with Upper quintile Eire, N Ireland and Scotland.
PSML: S normal or above elsewhere no signal. Enhanced probs all areas well above normal Upper quintile.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050517
TEMP: Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP slightly above normal
PPN : Season normal
JUL normal locally below in N Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland AUG NW Scotland normal elsewhere below normal SEP normal but Scotland, N Ireland, Eire and NW Wales above



CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
JUL above but well above in SE AUG above but well above in SE SEP Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JUL locally normal in NW Scotland and NW Eire elsewhere below AUG normal SEP normal but below in SW Eire





2017 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260517
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG above normal SW England elsewhere normal SEP normal OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Cornwall SE England and SW Eire
AUG Cornwall below normal, above norml in N half Eire, N Ireland N and NW Midlands and most of Scotland except NE, elsewhere normal SEP normal but below in SW Eire, Wales and most of southern and SW England OCT Below normal in S Eire, SW Scotland, NE England, Wales, Midlands and all S England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130517
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in Waes and SW England
AUG normal but above in Scotland and N/NE England SEP normal but below in SE Eire, SW England and S Wales OCT below or well below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070517
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally below in S Midlands OCT normal locally below in Central and E Scotland but above in SE Eire and much of S England exceot Cornwall and Kent

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010517
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S Eire and S of England
AUG Normal but below ion NE Scotland and above in S half Eire and all S of England (S of M4) SEP normallocally above in N Ireland and W/SW Scotland OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland, S Wales and S third of England



Output based on recalibrated NMME (since April 2017).
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 190517 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: SE England above normal. Elsewhere no signal.
PPN : Below in E and SE Scotland and NE Eire but above in N Ireland Midlands and parts of Westcountry. Elsewhere no signal.


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150517
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal UT and UQ
PPN: no signal
PMSL: Above normal in N (UT).
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: S and W near normal (MT), S and E above normal (UT)
PPN: E England and E Eire below normal (LT) elsewhere no signal
PMSL: S and W near normal (MT)
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal more than 70% UT also 50 to 70% in UQ
PPN: Near normal in S (MT) above in far NW UT.
PMSL: S of UK near normal (MT) elsewhere no signal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Above normal 50% to 70% in S (MT). 30 to 50% in England UQ.
PPN: S above normal (UT). NW below normal LT.
PMSL: N above normal UT, elsewhere near normal MT.


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN: Season: N above elsewhere below, well below in S/SW.
AUG Eire, N Ireland, N England and Scotland below elsewhere above normal SEP N Scotland above elsewhere below OCT N above S below




UKMO - 110517
TEMP: all areas more than 80% prob above median. 60% prob above normal (tircile). Upper quintile (well above normal) more than 55% exceopt S/SE England above 40%
PPN : In S decreased probs for above normal. Tircile N Scotland above normal, elsewhere mostly below n ormal but SW near normal. Quintile slightly enhanced probs suggest N Scotland well above N Ireland and S Scotland southwards well below normal.
PSML: Above or well above normal most likely es[ecially in S.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050517
TEMP: Season above normal
AUG above normal SEP slightly above normal OCT slightly above normal
PPN : Season normal
AUG NW Scotland normal elsewhere below normal SEP normal but Scotland, N Ireland, Eire and NW Wales above OCT SW England S Wales and S Eire below elsewhere normal



CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
AUG above but well above in SE SEP Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal SEP normal but below in SW Eire OCT normal in SW England Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland elsewhere above normal





2017 SEP OCT NOV


Summary - 150517 - strong signal for above normal temperatures. Rainfall probably near normal or drier September then wetter especially in NW for October and more generally in November. Overall near normal but above in N and W


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260517
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland NOV N half Scotland normal otherwise above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SE England
SEP normal but below in SW Eire, Wales and most of southern and SW England OCT Below normal in S Eire, SW Scotland, NE England, Wales, Midlands and all S England. NOV Above normal in Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N England elsewhere normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130517
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal but above in Eire, N Ireland Scotland and far NW England.
PPN: Season: below normal but Scotland normal
SEP normal but below in SE Eire, SW England and S Wales OCT below or well below normal NOV NW Scotland above SE Scotland England, Wales and SE Eire below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070517
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010517
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales and S counties (includes SW) of England also W Scotland



Korea APCC - 280517
Temp: Season Above normal
PPN : Season no signal



Output based on recalibrated NMME (since April 2017).
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 190517 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal.
PPN : BElow in SE England. Above in S Eire, N Ireland, N Wales. Elsewhere no signal.


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: S below elsewhere above
SEP N Scotland above elsewhere below OCT N above S below NOV above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050517
TEMP: Season slightly above normal
SEP slightly above normal OCT slightly above normal NOV above normal
PPN : Season Scotland and N Ireland above
SEP normal but Scotland, N Ireland, Eire and NW Wales above OCT SW England S Wales and S Eire below elsewhere normal NOV mostly above normal





CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
SEP Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal but below in SW Eire OCT normal in SW England Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland elsewhere above normal NOV NE Scotland normal elsewhere above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080517
See graphcs below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal

PPN: season - N England, N IReland and S Scotland above elsewhere normal



Indication from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 140517
TEMP: season - above normal (Sept slightly above normal [anom 0.25 to 0.5], Oct slightly above but Wales above normal [0.5 to 1C]. Nov above normal

PPN rate: season - near normal (monthly same)




Graphics 080517
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not avaiable

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2017 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260517
TEMP: Season: Above normal in Eire, N Ireland, W and S Scotland and N England elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Cornwall and parts of Kent but locally above in far NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130517
TEMP: Season: normal locally above far NW Scotland and Far W Eire
PPN: Season: normal but below in Wles, W Midlands and parts of SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070517
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Eire, Wales SW England and SW Midlands.
PPN: Season: normal but abocw in SW England SW Wales W Scotland and most of Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010517
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales and most of S half of England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC SW England slightly above elsewher BELOW normal
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT N above S below NOV above normal DEC N below S above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050517
TEMP:
OCT slightly above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT SW England S Wales and S Eire below elsewhere normal NOV mostly above normal DEC Scotland and SW Eire above elsewhere normal



CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC normal locally above in NE Scotland
PPN :
OCT normal in SW England Eire, N Ireland and NW Scotland elsewhere above normal NOV NE Scotland normal elsewhere above DEC normal but SW EIre and SW England above JAN England and Wales above elsewhere normal





2017 NOV DEC 2018 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260517
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal butb above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130517
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050517
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN South above normal Elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN :
NOV mostly above normal DEC Scotland and SW Eire above elsewhere normal JAN NW Scotland below Elsewhere in Scotland normal but everywhere else above normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: NW slightly above elsewhere above
NOV above normal DEC SW England slightly above elsewher BELOW normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC N below S above JAN Eire and N Ireland below elsewher near or above normal




CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal locally above in NE Scotland JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV NE Scotland normal elsewhere above DEC normal but SW EIre and SW England above JAN England and Wales above elsewhere normal





2017 DEC 2018 JAN FEB



CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
DEC normal locally above in NE Scotland JAN above normal FEB Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
DEC normal but SW EIre and SW England above JAN England and Wales above elsewhere normal FEB normal locally below in N Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season:
DEC SW England slightly above elsewher BELOW normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: Eire below elsewhere above
DEC N below S above JAN Eire and N Ireland below elsewher near or above normal FEB above normal





2018 JAN FEB MAR

CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB Eire normal elsewhere above MAR Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JAN England and Wales above elsewhere normal FEB normal locally below in N Scotland MAR N above elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN: Season: Eire below elsewhere above
JAN Eire and N Ireland below elsewher near or above normal FEB above normal MAR SW and S of UK above elsewhere below





2018 FEB MAR APR



CanSIPS - 300417
TEMP:
FEB Eire normal elsewhere above MAR Eire normal elsewhere above APR above normal
PPN :
FEB normal locally below in N Scotland MAR N above elsewhere normal APR normal locally above in N Ireland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: N above S slightly above
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR SW and S of UK above elsewhere below APR NW below elsewhere above





Spring 2018 MAR APR MAY


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 140517 -
TEMP: Season: Eire beow elsewhere near or slightly abiove normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY Below normal (-0.5 to -1C)
PPN: Season: NW below elsewhere above normal
MAR SW and S of UK above elsewhere below APR NW below elsewhere above MAY N and NW near normal elsewhere above or well above normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observatin - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolutin - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolutin versin of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminatin is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Predictin Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administratin. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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