Follow @T2mike
Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - April 2016 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 310516 (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


MAY Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
All data now in 310516

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010516 140516 190516 290516), CanSips 010516, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 160516 NMME and CFS2 graphics 160516, UKMO seasonal 160516, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160516, Japan JMA 160516, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 160516, BCC China 160516, International IMME 180516, USA - IRI 200516, Russia 200516, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) 210516, Korea APCC 250516, UKMO Contingency 310516, Russia 310516 update.

Russia delayed but now available
India Met Office IMO stage 1 monsoon available.



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Summer 2016 JUN JUL AUG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Comment - 280516 - increased signal for parts of UK to have drier and warmer June.
Comment - 170516 - South Africa Weather Service joined China and Japan output with a colder than norml forecast - considered a low risk. CFS2 stronger signal for dry June but lower signal in July.
Summary - 170516 - Mixed indications from the models to date, some warmer some colder than normal but weighting towards the more reliable models (none are always good) temperatures look most likely to be near or a little above normal. August could be warmer and more humid looking at the min temps. UKMO suggests possible well above normal values are possible in places during the season, but some caution needed due to below normal Atlantic Sea temperatures, so this might be in more central areas. Most output suggest above normal pressure or contour heights suggesting that rainfall may be reduced in the S and E compared to normal but near normal in the N and W. Monthly output consistent in suggesting July drier than normal and August wetter. Output for June less consistent but hints at drier in the South and East seem fair. UKMO has enhanced probs for well above normal across the N, W and SW of UK and Eire but with the East more likely to be well below normal. The well above normal output may be due to rainfall in (early?) June and thundery rain in August.
For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th of the Month



Comment - IRI statistical rainfall probabilities not included as El Nino should be Neutral by summer 2016


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C)

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290516
TEMP: Season: Normal butn W Scotland abvoe normal
JUN above normal but NE England normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: BElow normal in Wales, SW England and SW Eire above normal in NW Scotland elsewhere normal
JUN normal but NW Scotland above and N England below (some runs have more of UK below normal) JUL below normal but normal in NW Eire and N Ireland, N Scotland, Midlands and N England AUG Wales and SW England below normal W Scotland above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN Normal but above for W Scotland, N Ireland Eire, Wales and SW England JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in N Scotland and below in, Fife, parts of Wales and Cornwall also E and S and W (not central) Eire
JUN Below normal but normal for central S England and far N Scotland JUL Normal but NE+W Scotland above, below normal for E Scotland S half of Eire, SW England and far SE England AUG Above normal but Wales, N England E Scotland, N Ireland and parts of Eire normal SEP above normal OCT N England S Scotland below elsewhere normal but S Eire above NOV normal locally below in SW Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland, N England, Cornwall.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal, hint NE England colder AUG normal, hint NE England colder
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Wales and above in NW Scotland
JUN much stronger signal for drier June except far N/NE where near normal JUL Normal but above normnal in NW Scotland and locally below in SE Eire and SE England (reduced signal for below normal) AUG normal but above in Eire, Central W and NW Scotland, Midlands, SW, S and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140516
TEMP: Season: Normal
JUN Normal JUL Normal AUG Normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland and below in N Wales
JUN normal but below in E Eire, N Ireland, Wales, Cornwall, Midlands and E Scotland JUL mostly below normal but normal in S and SE England N and W Eire, N Ireland and N half of Scotland AUG above normal but normal across Wales, N Midlands and NE England also NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal locally below in NE England JUL normal locally below in NE England AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but above in W Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Wales and SW Eire but above in W Scotland
JUN Normal but above in Scotland, N and E England JUL Mostly below normal but normal in S and E England, central Scotland but above in NW Scotland AUG normal locally below in E Scotland and above in W Scotland SW England and NE Midlands SEP below normal but Scotland normal except NW above normal OCT England and Wales normal elsewhere above



UKMO contingency 310516
TEMP: June UKMO says above normal slightly more likely than below. The distribution has an increased number of well above normal solutions which are outside of the observed range but the main spread of solutions is centred around the normal range. Conclusion there is an increased chance that well above normal temperature may occur in June.
JJA: There are three clusters one near normal, one a little below and and third well above normal. Overall the distribution is shifted above normal. UKMO say chance of well above normal 30% and for well below 20%. Conclusion there is a increased chance of well above normal temp during this season.
PPN: June UKMO say above normal more likely. Althoughthere a re a number of below or well below normal solutions the main feature is a shift towards above or well above normal. Above normal most likely.
JJA: UKMO say finely balanced above or below, no strong signal. The distribition of solutions however has two clusters one near normal and the other below normal, the above normal solutions being rather scattered. Consequenctly despite UKMO sayng finely balanced it seems more likely that below normal rainfall is most likely.



Korea APCC - 250516
Temp: Season Locally above in E of England and far N Scotland elsewhere no signal
JUN E of England above normal elsewhere no signal JUL no signal AUG no signal
PPN : Season Locally above in far N Scotland and locally below in far S England elsewhere no signal
JUN NW above normal elsewhere no signal JUL far NW above normal elsewhere no signal AUG NE Scotland below normal elsewhere no signal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. 210516 (data 130516)
TEMP: below normal
PPN: Eire and N Ireland no signal elsewhere below normal


IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 200516 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal probs range from 40% in SW Eire, Midlands and Central S England to mostly above 50% and above 60% in the N of UK and E of England
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


Russia 310516 update
No change to temperature but rainfall hints at far SE England/NE France above normal

Russia 200516
Temp: E of England above normal. Eire below normal. Elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below.
PPN : N and NE Scotland above normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below but hint at far south being below.


BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: below normal
PPN: Season: S below normal N normal or above


Japan JMA - 160516 - (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season S and E England slightly above elsewhere below
JUN Scotland, N Ireland and Eire slightly below elsewhere slightly above JUL slightly below AUG slightly below
PPN : Season above normal
JUN slightly above but S and SE England slightly below JUL slightly above AUG S slightly above elsewhere slightly below
PMSL: Season N Slightly below S slightly above (WNW)
JUN slightly above (WnW) JUL slightly above but SW slightly above (WNW) AUG slightly below (WNW)



UKMO - 160516 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: England, Wales and Scotland most likely above normal with a chance of well above normal. W of Eire and N Ireland more likely normal. Enhanced probs for well above normal.
PPN : E of England most likely to be below normal central UK near normal and hint of above normal in parts of NW and NE Scotland, SW Eire and far SW England. Slightly enhanced probs for well above normal across the N, W and SW of UK also Eire and for well below in E Anglia.
PSML: above or well above normal pressure more likely than below normal. 500hPa enhanced probs for above or well above normal heights.



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 160516
Temp: near normal
PPN : N Wales and NW England above elsewhere normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: E Wales and W Midlands below normal elsewhere normal
PPN : Wales and SW Above normal elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160516
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
JUN normal but E of England above JUL Eire normal elsewhere above AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV NW above, SE third of England below, elsewhere normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN: Season: normal but the far NW above
JUN above normal but S and SE England normal JUL England and Wales below normal, NW Scotland above AUG below normal SEP normal but Scotland above OCT Normal but N of UK above NOV below normal but N Scotland above DEC mostly above normal but S and E near normal JAN normal but N and NW above



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.

CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
JUN normal JUL normal but above in SE AUG normal but above in SE England and E Scotland
PPN :
JUN normal but below in Eire and above in N Scotland JUL normal but below in N Ireland, SW Scotland and NW England and above in N Scotland AUG normal but below in far SE England and above in Eire, N Ireland Wales N England and S Scotland



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 160516
TEMP: near normal perhaps above in SE England
PPN: Scotland and N and W Eire above normal, SE England below normal, elsewhere normal.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 180516
TEMP: near normal but far N Scotland and perhaps far E of England above normal. (August mostly near normal).

PPN: near normal



Graphics 150516
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly




200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib 080316





JUL AUG SEP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Scotland above
JUL below normal but normal in NW Eire and N Ireland, N Scotland, Midlands and N England AUG Wales and SW England below normal W Scotland above elsewhere normal SEP above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal localy above in W Scotland Midlands far SE England and NW Eire/ W of N Ireland
JUL Normal but NE+W Scotland above, below normal for E Scotland S half of Eire, SW England and far SE England AUG Above normal but Wales, N England E Scotland, N Ireland and parts of Eire normal SEP above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal, hint NE England colder AUG normal, hint NE England colder SEP NW Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland NW Eire and E Midlands
JUL Normal but above normnal in NW Scotland and locally below in SE Eire and SE England (reduced signal for below normal) AUG normal but above in Eire, Central W and NW Scotland, Midlands, SW, S and SE England SEP normal but below in E Scotland SW Scotland NW England N Wales and Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL Normal AUG Normal SEP Normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and below in N Wales
JUL mostly below normal but normal in S and SE England N and W Eire, N Ireland and N half of Scotland AUG above normal but normal across Wales, N Midlands and NE England also NE Scotland SEP normal but above in NW Scotland and below in Wales and S of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010516
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal locally below in NE England AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Scotland above and below normal in Wales, S and SW Eire, E Scotland and W Midlands
JUL Mostly below normal but normal in S and E England, central Scotland but above in NW Scotland AUG normal locally below in E Scotland and above in W Scotland SW England and NE Midlands SEP below normal but Scotland normal except NW above normal



USA - IRI - 200516 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal probs range from 40% in S and W Eire also London area to mostly above 60% and in in the N of UK and E of England over 70%
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. 210516 (data 130516)
TEMP: below normal
PPN: Eire and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal/uncertain risk SW England above normal


BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: below normal
PPN: Season: above normal


UKMO - 160516 -
TEMP: Most areas likely above normal, although lower probs for W Eire and Scotland. Enhanced chance of well above normal in all areas highest probs for NW England.
PPN : Scotland especially the N and NW above normal, parts of Central England below normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below but with enhanced probs for well above normal except in the S of England
PSML: near normal but chance of above in S.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160516
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL Eire normal elsewhere above AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN: Season: normal but England and Wales below normal
JUL England and Wales below normal, NW Scotland above AUG below normal SEP normal but Scotland above


CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
JUL normal but above in SE AUG normal but above in SE England and E Scotland SEP normal
PPN :
JUL normal but below in N Ireland, SW Scotland and NW England and above in N Scotland AUG normal but below in far SE England and above in Eire, N Ireland Wales N England and S Scotland SEP normal locally above in E England




AUG SEP OCT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290516
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: Normal but W Scotland above
AUG Wales and SW England below normal W Scotland above elsewhere normal SEP above normal OCT normal but W Scotland above and SE Scotland below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260516
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire, W Scotland Midlands and SE England
AUG Above normal but Wales, N England E Scotland, N Ireland and parts of Eire normal SEP above normal OCT N England S Scotland below elsewhere normal but S Eire above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190516
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal, hint NE England colder SEP NW Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland Eire and Midlands
AUG normal but above in Eire, Central W and NW Scotland, Midlands, SW, S and SE England SEP normal but below in E Scotland SW Scotland NW England N Wales and Cornwall OCT normal but above in Eire S and W Scotland N and NW England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140516
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG Normal SEP Normal OCT Normal but above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Eire and NW Scotland
AUG above normal but normal across Wales, N Midlands and NE England also NE Scotland SEP normal but above in NW Scotland and below in Wales and S of England OCT normal but above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010516
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but above in W Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
AUG normal locally below in E Scotland and above in W Scotland SW England and NE Midlands SEP below normal but Scotland normal except NW above normal OCT England and Wales normal elsewhere above



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. 210516 (data 130516)
TEMP:
PPN: Eire below normal far SW England above also far N Scotland elsewhere uncertain/normal


USA - IRI - 200516 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal probs range from 40% in SW Eire to mostly above 60% and above 70% in the N of UK and E of England
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: N above normal elsewhere below normal
PPN: Season: near normal but above in N


UKMO - 160516
TEMP: England, Wales and Scotland most likely above normal
PPN : N and NW of UK and Eire probably near normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below but with enhanced prob for well above normal in Wales and parts of England
PSML: Normal or above with enhanced probs of well above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160516
TEMP: Season: above normal
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN: Season: normal but Eire below
AUG below normal SEP normal but Scotland above OCT Normal but N of UK above


CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
AUG normal but above in SE England and E Scotland SEP normal OCT normal
PPN : N and W of UK and Eire prob
AUG normal but below in far SE England and above in Eire, N Ireland Wales N England and S Scotland SEP normal locally above in E England OCT mostly below normal




Autumn 2016 SEP OCT NOV -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 170516 - Milder than normal overall especially later in the Autumn, but risk of October seeing more frost than normal. Some agreement with La Nina statistic for a drier than normal period except in the NW where near or above normal rain likely. Suggestion that November may be wetter after a drier early Autumn. Forecast of enhanced westerly jet for November but reduced in October.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk
IRI Statistical data for potential La Nina affect on UK PPN

IRI climate impacts.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290516
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above normal NOV normal but Scotland, N Ireland and much of Eire above normal
PPN: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
SEP above normal OCT normal but W Scotland above and SE Scotland below NOV NW Scotland above elsewhere in Scotland normal otherwise most areas below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260516
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S and W Eire
SEP above normal OCT N England S Scotland below elsewhere normal but S Eire above NOV normal locally below in SW Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland, N England, Cornwall.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190516
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP NW Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in N Midlands W and S Eire and W Scotland
SEP normal but below in E Scotland SW Scotland NW England N Wales and Cornwall OCT normal but above in Eire S and W Scotland N and NW England. NOV normal but above in Wales and S half England also most of Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140516
TEMP: Season: Normal but above in NW Scotland
SEP Normal OCT Normal but above in NW Scotland NOV mostly above but normal in NE England SW England N Ireland and Eire
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
SEP normal but above in NW Scotland and below in Wales and S of England OCT normal but above in NW Scotland NOV mostly above but normal in S Eire and NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010516
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W and NW Scotland



Korea APCC - 250516
Temp: Season Locally above in E of England elsewhere no signal
SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere no signal OCT SE England above ormal elsewhere no signal NOV far N and E above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN : Season no signal
SEP no signal OCT no signal NOV no signal



USA - IRI - 200516 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal probs range from 40% in SW Eire to mostly above 50% and above 70% in the NW of Scotland and Central Lowlands. Slightly enhanced chance of being in the top 15% warmest range for the season
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales below normal elsewhere above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160516
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV NW above, SE third of England below, elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: Eire below normal elsewhere normal
SEP normal but Scotland above OCT Normal but N of UK above NOV below normal but N Scotland above


CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN :
SEP normal locally above in E England OCT mostly below normal NOV normal locally above in S and E England



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 180516
TEMP: Eire and N Ireland near normal elsewhere above normal. September near normal. October strongest positive anomaly then November.

PPN: near normal



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly




200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib 080316




2016 OCT NOV DEC -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290516
TEMP: Season: SW England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260516
TEMP: Season: S Eire and S England near normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190516
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal across the Midlands and E Anglia
PPN: Season: normal but above normal in Eire, N Ireland SW and W Scotland and NW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140516
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland Wales , Midlands and E England
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland NW England and Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010516
TEMP: Season: all areas above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W and S Scotland also SW Eire



BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: S normal or below elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: Scotland above England and Wales below elsewhere normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160516
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV NW above, SE third of England below, elsewhere normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT Normal but N of UK above NOV below normal but N Scotland above DEC mostly above normal but S and E near normal


CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV normal DEC Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above
PPN :
OCT mostly below normal NOV normal locally above in S and E England DEC N half Scotland normal elsewhere below




2016 NOV DEC 2017 JAN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290516
TEMP: Season: above normal all areas
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260516
TEMP: Season: above normal all areas
PPN: Season: NW Scotland above nrmal elsewhere near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190516
TEMP: Season: Normal but England and Wales also NW Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: Normal locally above in NW England and central Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140516
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales , Midlands and E England
PPN: Season: normal but above in N Ireland, SW Scotland, N England and Wales



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160516
TEMP:
NOV NW above, SE third of England below, elsewhere normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV below normal but N Scotland above DEC mostly above normal but S and E near normal JAN normal but N and NW above


BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland above normal elsewhere below
PPN: Season: Above normal but N Scotland below


CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
NOV normal DEC Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above JAN normal
PPN :
NOV normal locally above in S and E England DEC N half Scotland normal elsewhere below JAN S normal N above




WINTER 2016 DEC 2017 JAN FEB -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 170516 -
For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for potential La Nina affect on UK PPN

IRI climate impacts.


BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: NE below normal elsewhere near but Eire above normal
PPN: Season: abiove normal


CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
DEC Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above JAN normal FEB Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above
PPN :
DEC N half Scotland normal elsewhere below JAN S normal N above FEB below normal




2017 JAN FEB MAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 160516 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal


CanSIPS 010516
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above MAR Eire, N Ireland, SW England and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above APR normal but above in SE England
PPN :
JAN S normal N above FEB below normal MAR normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and SW Scotland APR S below elsewhere normal



NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


Comments or questions please E mail

Return to:

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Mobile phone links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data