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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - APR 2015 data
Current issue

Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 260515. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


MAY data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates)

Data used so far: NCEP CFS2 020515 070515 140515 200515, Russia 010515, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080515. US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080515, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080515, UKMO seasonal 110515, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 120515, Japan JMA 160515, US International IMME 160515, BCC China 170515, USA IRI 220515, Korea APCC 260515, UKMO Contingency 260515.


NOTE 1: It is much easier to have above normal UK temps when compared to 1961-1990 series than 1981-2010
Note 2:UKMO climate model change and ENDGAME UKMO Notice



Sites with no data
Russia ok again 140215
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Summer JUN JUL AUG 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


For info IRI climate impacts data regards above, normal or below normal rain in UK area May June July with El Nino
Ref IRI - Mason, S.J. and L. Goddard, 2001: Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 619-638.
El Nino prob above normal ppn
El Nino prob normal ppn
El Nino prob below normal ppn


Summary 220515 - main theme near normal or a little above normal temperatures overall and above normal rain in places after probably a drier start to summer.
Summary 170515 - BCC China supports slightly wetter and slightly cooler / close to normal
Summary 160515 - JMA implies weakly unsettled summer and hints at slightly cooler with slightly higher rain totals but consensus (including IMME) favours near normal temps. A risk of higher rain totals in S and E than normal occurs in some output.
Summary 110515 - indication for normal temps but in S possibly above normal. Indication for drier than normal in several models early/mid summer but less agreement for later in Summer. Some risk of above normal rain in parts of S of UK (could be thundery rain?).

Note 110515: The last 4 monthly issues of NMME/CFS2 have indicated drier start to summer and wetter August, although location of wetter area N/S has moved south with time. Temps mostly above normal or normal. See previous issues link.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200515
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in W Scotland
JUN most areas below normal but normal in SE Engand, Devon and NE Scotland JUL normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, SW Scotland, Midlands and Cornwall AUG Above normal E of England and parts of N Scotland, below normal S Scotland S and E Eire and N Wales SEP normal but above in Midlands Scotland and Eire OCT normal but below in SW Scotland parts of W Eire and much of Wales and S half of England NOV normal but above inW Scotland, Wales and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140515
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN : Season: normal but locally below in W Scotland
JUN below normal but E of England normal JUL normal but above normal in Eire, Central Lowland Scotland, SW England, NE Midlands and N England AUG normal but above in SE third of England and below in S and E Scotland also S and E Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070515
TEMP: Season: normal but hint locally colder near coast in NE England
JUN normal JUL normal locally below in NE England AUG normal locally below in NE England
PPN: Season: normal
JUN most areas below normal but S Eire and NE England normal JUL normal but above in W Scotland and below in Wales and S Eire AUG normal but above in most of England and Wales also W and central Scotland and W of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020515 - hinting at wetter August in S after drier start to summer?
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in W Highland Scotland but below in Wales and near Dublin
JUN normal but below across Wales Midlands and E/SE England also NE Eire/N Ireland JUL Normal but above in W Scotland and below for S and E Eire, Wales Midlands and NE England AUG normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire all of S England



Korea APCC - 270513
Temp: Season near normal perhaps slightly cooler in NW
JUN near normal JUL near normal AUG near normal
PPN : Season near normal
JUN near normal JUL near normal AUG near normal


USA - IRI - 220515 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Temp: 40% prob above normal in S up to 50% in Scotland and E Anglia. Prob for below normal 20 to 25%
PPN : Equal probs for above/normal/below - no signal


BCC China - 170515 -
TEMP: Season: Eire and Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere slightly below
PPN: Season: slightly above normal except far N and far SE slightly below



Japan JMA 160515
Temp: Season slightly below normal
JUN slightly below normal JUL slightly below normal AUG slightly below normal
PPN : Season England and Wales slightly above elsewhere slightly below
JUN slightly below normal but S and E of UK slightly above JUL Season England and Wales slightly above elsewhere slightly below AUG slightly below normal but SW slightly above
PMSL: Season slightly below in S and slightly above in N (Weak WNW)
JUN slightly below in SE and slightly above in NW (Weak NW) JUL slightly below (weal NW) AUG slightly above (Weak WNW)


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 120515
Temp: near normal but N Wales and NW England slightly below
PPN : near normal
PMSL: slightly below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal but slightly above normal for E of Eire, E of Northern Ireland, S Scotland, Wales and England excpet SW England



UKMO contingency 260515 - wording states for the season indication of higher than normal pressure over northern Europe
TEMP:
JUNE: Spread of model solutions looks slightly shifted to warmer than normal although sig cluster around or very slightly above normal can be seen on the output.
SEASON: About 60% of models runs normal or above normal. Above normal most likely. Reduced probs for well below normal.
PPN:
JUNE: Some clustering of the output just above normal and just below with Met Office suggesting near normal. There looks to be slightly more of the runs with below normal than above hence suggest below normal more likely despite the graph looking more like above normal.
SEASON: slightly enhanced probs for below normal (1 in 5 year). Distribution looks fairly evently split around the mean with near normal or slightly below most likely.


UK - 110515
TEMP: Highest probs for above normal in S and SE lowest in NW Eire and W Scotland. Main signal for near normal but for S of England above normal slightly more likely and here well above normal possible.
PPN : Main signal for near normal but below normal over most of England, S Wales and central Eire. Slightly enhanced probs for well below normal over England but also enhanced probs for well above over far SE England
PSML: Increased probs for above normal over SW England and Eire but main signal is for near normal though with chance of well above normal in W or NW of UK and Eire.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080515
TEMP: Season near normal but slightly above in SW England and S Wales.
JUN Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above JUL N half Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above AUG normal
PPN : Season S of England and S of Wales normal but elsewhere slightly below
JUN normal but Scotland and W Eire below normal JUL N and NW Scotland, N Ireland and N and NW Eire normal elsewhere drier than normal AUG N of Scotland and SE third of England normal elsewhere drier


Russia 010515
Temp: S and E of England and perhaps S Wales hinting at above normal elsewhere normal perhaps below in NW Eire and W coast Scotland
PPN : Above normal W and NW Scotland, SW England and perhaps E of England, elsewhere no sig probs above/normal/below


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080515
TEMP: SEASON: normal or slightly above in S and E. Monthly data suggest min temps close to normal and max above normal and standard t2m near normal but slightly above in S and E of England.

PPN: SEASON: overall slightly drier than normal (most componant models have some drier areas though not the same areas). Monthly data suggest July and August drier perhaps nearer normal in August in S



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 160515

TEMP: SEASON: near normal (hints at colder in W/NW and slightly above normal in SE)
PPN: SEASON: near normal



CFS2 MAX MIN 080515





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN


In AUgust over S England difference in PPN between CFS2 from NMME web site compared to CPC runs up to 8th May. CPC is a 10 day mean and NMME probably just 4 runs from one day. In addition differences in the scales of the two maps also play a part.


NMME MAX and MIN




NMME TEMP:



Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means 170515 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:


Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means 170515 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server





JUL AUG SEP 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary 110515 - warmer than normal and possibly drier but N and NW more likely normal temp and rain.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200515
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland W Eire and E Midlands
JUL normal but above in Eire, N Ireland, SW Scotland, Midlands and Cornwall AUG Above normal E of England and parts of N Scotland, below normal S Scotland S and E Eire and N Wales SEP normal but above in Midlands Scotland and Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140515
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN : Season: normal but locally below in SW Scotland
JUL normal but above normal in Eire, Central Lowland Scotland, SW England, NE Midlands and N England AUG normal but above in SE third of England and below in S and E Scotland and S and E Eire SEP below normal in NE Eire and N Ireland, S Scotland and most of England and Wales elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070515
TEMP: Season: normal but hint locally colder near coast in NE England
JUL normal locally below in NE England AUG normal locally below in NE England SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland and W of Eire and perhaps near Hull
JUL normal but above in W Scotland and below in Wales and S Eire AUG normal but above in most of England and Wales also W and central Scotland and W of Eire SEP normal but W Scotland and W Eire above but below in SW England and far SW.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020515
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in W Highland Scotland but below in Wales and near Dublin
JUL Normal but above in W Scotland and below for S and E Eire, Wales Midlands and NE England AUG normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire all of S England SEP normal but above in SW Eire and below in parts of Wales and SW England



USA - IRI - 220515 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: 40% prob above normal in S up to 50% in Scotland and E Anglia and 60% in NW Scotland. Prob for below normal 20 to 25%
PPN : Equal probs for above/normal/below - no signal


BCC China - 170515 -
TEMP: Season: slightly cooler than normal
PPN: Season: slightly drier than normal


UK - 110515
TEMP: near normal favoured perhaps warmer in England especially the S with enhanced probs in SE for well above normal. Cooler in far W Eire/N Ireland and W Scotland .
PPN : reduced probs for above normal except in N Scotland and SE England. Main theme normal or below normal possibly well below normal but the far norh may see above normal rain
PSML: mod probability for above normal over and the W of UK chance of well above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080515
TEMP: Season near normal but Wales and southern two thirds England slightly above
JUL N half Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above AUG normal SEP Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN : Season near normal but Scotland, N Ireland and Eire slightly below
JUL N and NW Scotland, N Ireland and N and NW Eire normal elsewhere drier than normal AUG N of Scotland and SE third of England normal elsewhere drier SEP normal but above in SW Eire and below in parts of Wales and SW England



AUG SEP OCT 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200515
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but Scotland and E Anglia/E Midlands above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland
AUG Above normal E of England and parts of N Scotland, below normal S Scotland S and E Eire and N Wales SEP normal but above in Midlands Scotland and Eire OCT normal but below in SW Scotland parts of W Eire and much of Wales and S half of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140515
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal locally above in W Scotland
PPN : Season: normal but below normal in Wales, SW England, NW England, S Scotland and N Ireland and locally above in W Highland Scotland
AUG normal but above in SE third of England and below in S and E Scotland and S and E Eire SEP below normal in NE Eire and N Ireland, S Scotland and most of England and Wales elsewhere normal OCT Below normal in SE Scotland, England and Wales but locally above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070515
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal locally below in NE England SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in Midlands SW England W Scotland and S and W Eire
AUG normal but above in most of England and Wales also W and central Scotland and W of Eire SEP normal but W Scotland and W Eire above but below in SW England and far SW. OCT normal but above in SW England W Scotland and most of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020515
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but above in SW England
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in W Highland Scotland but below in Wales and near Dublin
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Highland Scotland also S and W Eire
AUG normal but above in W Scotland SW Eire all of S England SEP normal but above in SW Eire and below in parts of Wales and SW England OCT normal locally below in SE England but above in SW Eire, central and W Scotland



USA - IRI - 220515 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Prob below normal 25% in SW Eire otherwise 15% and 5% in NW Scotland. Prob above normal 40% SW Eire elsewherre 55% but 60% in E Anglia and most of Scotland but 70% and N and NW Scotland.
PPN : For N Ireland, NW England and most of Scotland below normal (40% prob up to 45% for NW Scotland) elsewhere equal probs for above/normal/below - no signal


BCC China - 170515 -
TEMP: Season: normal to slightly warmer in SW
PPN: Season: normal to slightly wetter in N


UK - 110515
TEMP: normal perhaos above in S
PPN : normal but increased risk of above or well above normal in central and E England and E Scotland.
PSML: near normal most likely


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080515
TEMP: Season near normal but England and Wales slightly above
AUG normal SEP Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above OCT slightly above normal but less so in Eire
PPN : Season near normal but parts of Eire slightly below
AUG N of Scotland and SE third of England normal elsewhere drier SEP NW Scotland drier than normal eslewhere normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above normal



Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200515
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but Scotland and E Anglia/E Midlands above normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland
SEP normal but above in Midlands Scotland and Eire OCT normal but below in SW Scotland parts of W Eire and much of Wales and S half of England NOV normal but above inW Scotland, Wales and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140515
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal locally above in W Scotland NOV normal but above in W Eire, Wales and S England except the SW.
PPN : Season: normal but above normal in W Scotland and SW Eire
SEP below normal in NE Eire and N Ireland, S Scotland and most of England and Wales elsewhere normal OCT Below normal in SE Scotland, England and Wales but locally above in NW Scotland NOV above normal but normal in E Scotland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070515
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W and central Scotland, Wales and SW England and most of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020515
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in W Highland Scotland and SW Eire



USA - IRI - 220515 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: ABove normal ranges from 60% in N to 45% in S and 40% for S Eire. Prob below normal 25% S Eire to 15% for most of England and Wales and 10% in Scotland
PPN : For most of Scotland below normal (40% prob) elsewhere equal probs for above/normal/below - no signal


BCC China - 170515 -
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere above normal (anomaly plus 0.2C in S)
PPN: Season: normal to slightly wetter in N.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080515
TEMP: Season near normal or slightly above
SEP Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above OCT slightly above normal but less so in Eire NOV England and S Wales slightly below elsewhere normal
PPN : Season near normal
SEP NW Scotland drier than normal eslewhere normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above normal NOV normal but SW England below



OCT NOV DEC 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200515
TEMP: Season: Eire, N Ireland and SW Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal but N half of Scotland above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140515
TEMP: Season: normal but Wales and S half of England above normal
PPN : Season: normal but above normal in Wales, SW England, SW Midlands, S and W Scotland and most of Eire except the N

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070515
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in S of England
PPN: Season: Above normal except NE Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020515
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal for; S and SW England, Wales, NW England, S and W Scotland and S and W Eire.



BCC China - 170515 -
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080515
TEMP:
OCT slightly above normal but less so in Eire NOV England and S Wales slightly below elsewhere normal DEC Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN
OCT normal but NW Scotland above normal NOV normal but SW England below DEC above normal

Winter 2015 Dec 2016 JAN FEB ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary 170515 - Overall normal temps and above normal precipitation. Possibly mild and wet December 2015 then colder than normal Jan or Feb with normal perhaps above normal precip totals.

BCC China - 170515 -
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal in far N elsewhere above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080515
TEMP
DEC Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above JAN 2016 SE England normal elsewhere colder than normal
PPN
DEC above normal JAN 2016 far S above far NW below elsewhere normal


CFS2 and NMME winter season 140515: No indication of colder winter






NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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