SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - February 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 290318(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
FINAL UPDATE this month
Not available at date of issue: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (280218 070318 140318 220318), Russia 280218, CanSips 280218, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080318, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080318, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080318, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 100318, ECMWF monthly 120318, BCC China 120318, UKMO seasonal 120318, JAMSTEC 150318 , CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 150318, International IMME 160318, KMA 160318, Japan JMA 160318, USA - IRI 170318, Korea APCC 260318, UKMO Contingency 290318.
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO NMME comparison

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London


SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 APR MAY JUN

Summary - 170318 - Temperature for the season starting normal or below normal ending above normal hence overall could be close to normal for the season. Sea temperature near N Sea may stay below normal helping hold back temperatures for parts of NE or E of England.
Rainfall likely to be below average in the S and SW of UK and Eire but above in the north. Some indication that May could be the wetter month for the south and April the drier month for some western areas but in generaly not much agreement between models for month to month detail.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220318
TEMP: Season: normal
APR Below normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR normal but below in NW Scotland and above in E/SE England MAY normal locally above in central lowlands Scotland and Midlands JUN normal but above in W and Central Scotland and W of Eire, below in Wales and Midlands and parts of NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140318
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR Normal but W Eire below and most of Scotland above MAY normal but Cornwall above and Highland Scotland below JUN normal locally below in E Scotland and S Wales but above in W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070318
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR N Ireland N England and Scotland normal elsewhere below normal MAY normal JUN normal but W Eire above and Wales and Midlands below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280218
TEMP: Season: normal
APR near normal MAY near normal JUN near normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England Wales Midlands and N of England far S Scotland
APR normal locally below in S Wales W Scotland and much of Eire MAY N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JUN Above normal but normal in NE and E Scotland E and SE England




UKMO contingency 290318 - All of UK single average figure output.
TEMP:
APRIL: Below normal is more likely than above normal. The split is roughly 60/40 between number of colder/warmer than average ensemble members. Roughtly three clusters one above normal and two below/well below normal. Interesting reduction in the probablity for near normal values.
AMJ: Marginally above likely more likely than below - which if April is correct and olcer than at least one month should above normal. Solutions are roughly evenly split above/below normal but with enhanced chance of near normal.
PPN:
APRIL: Below normal more likely than above. Split is roughly 55/45% below/above. Ensemble members cover a wide spread greater than the cliamtology. Reduced number of solutions slightly above normal and increased slightly below normal.
AMJ: Above normal slightly more likely than below 66/33 split. Whole distribution slightyl shifted to wetter. SHould April be drier as predicted than well above average rain might be expected in one of the other months.




Korea APCC - 2606318
Temp: Season No Signal
APR no signal but hint at below normal in places MAY No Signal JUN above normal JUL No Signal but SE above normal AUG above normal No Signal
PPN : Season No Signal
APR No Signal MAY No Signal JUN No Signal JUL No Signal AUG No Signal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 160318 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal
PPN : SW Eire below normal N Scotland and NE England above normal elsewhere no signal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season above normal
APR Below normal in S and E above in N and W MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN : Season above normal but N Scotland below normal
APR N Scotland below elsewhere above MAY Eire and SW below elsewhere above JUN above normal but SE England below
PMSL: Season below normal but Scotland above normal (W)
APR below normal (W) MAY above normal (SLACK) JUN ABove normal (W)



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150318
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Below normal most likely
PPN: no signal apart form risk above in SW Wales and SW England
PMSL: no signal/chance of below normal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: Below normal most likely parts of Central England away from S may be normal
PPN: no signal apart form risk of below in Wales, SW England and S half of Eire
PMSL: S and W below normal elsewhere no siganl
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: SE above elsewhere normal
PPN: S half of area pob above normal far N below elsewhere no signal
PMSL: NW below normal elsewhere no signal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: Below normal most likely parts of Central England away from S may be normal
PPN: Far N and W Scotlandm, N Ireland, Eire and SW UK proba bove normal elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Below normal especially to the N



KMA - 150318
Temp: Season: normal. APR below MAY normal JUN normal hint of above in S Eire.
PPN : Season: normal. APR S above elsewhere normal MAY normal JUN S below elsewhere normal
PMSL: Season: normal. APR below normal MAY above normal JUN normal but above in SW




UKMO - 120318 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: normal or above normal with slightly enhanced probs UQ
PPN : slightly enhanced probs for above normal in E Eire, Wales and Midlands and for below normal in SE England elsewhere normal. Chance UQ in Wales and Midlands.
PSML: Slightly higher probs fpr above normal / UQ but overland near normal just as likely.



ECMWF - monthly - graphics 120318
EC1

ECMWF - monthly - 120318 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
APR Eire, Centeral Scotland and W Midlands normal elsewhere slightly below MAY below normal JUN normal a
PPN:
APR E and SE England above elsewhere below normal MAY S Eire, SW England and W Highland below elsewhere above especially NW England and SE Scotland JUN N half of Scotland, W Scotland, far N of N Ireland and SE England above. Eire, E Wales, Midlands and parts of S of England below elsewhere normal a



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
APR Above normal but SE England below MAY Eire and parts of SW England below elsewhere above JUN Above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
APR Scotland and N England above elsewhere below MAY below normal JUN below normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 100318
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: below normal especially in N and near normal in far S
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal but above normal in NW England and far SE England



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080318
TEMP:
APR Below normal MAY Below normal JUN Below normal
PPN :
APR Below perhaps above in E England MAY N below elsewhere above JUN NW below SE above



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 280218
TEMP: season: normal
APR normal MAY above normal JUN above normal but SW UK and SE Eire normal
PPN : season: Wales, W Midlands, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal
APR N Scotland above S/SW of UK and Eire below elsewhere normal MAY N/NE UK normal elsewhere including Eire below normal JUN N UK above S UK and S Eire below elsewhere normal



Russia 280218
Temp: Near normal
PPN : Drier than normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070318
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - near normal (a few milder models offset by some colder ones)

PPN: season - Normal but far SW may be below (CMC and perhaps GFS hinting at drier in SW UK and SW Eire)



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 160318
TEMP: season - normal
PPN rate: season - normal



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2018 MAY JUN JUL


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220318
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above inn W Eire and Lowlands and W Scotland
MAY normal locally above in central lowlands Scotland and Midlands JUN normal but above in W and Central Scotland and W of Eire, below in Wales and Midlands and parts of NE England JUL normal but below in Conrwall and N Ireland but above in W Eore, Central Scotland and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140318
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season:normal locally above in Midlands, W Eire and W Scotland
MAY normal but Cornwall above and Highland Scotland below JUN normal locally below in E Scotland and S Wales but above in W Eire JUL Locally below in Cornwall but above in Midlands NW ENgland NW Eire and all W half Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070318
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal but W Eire above and Wales and Midlands below normal JUL N Eire, N Ireland S Scotland and far N England normal elsewhere below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280218
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY near normal JUN near normal JUL near normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in EIre Wales S Scotland W and SW England and Midlands
MAY N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JUN Above normal but normal in NE and E Scotland E and SE England JUL normal locally below ENE Scotland and NE England but above in Cornwall, Devon and Eire



USA - IRI - 160318 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal
PPN : W Eire and E of England below normal, N of England above normal elsewhere no signal




UKMO - 120318 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: normal or above normal with the N and W more likely above
PPN : slightly enhanced probs for above normal in N. Elsewhere similar probs above/normal/below
PSML: Slightly higher probs for above normal in Eire and England and Wales, normal elsewhere



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP:
MAY Eire and parts of SW England below elsewhere above JUN Above normal JUL SE above elsewhere below normal
PPN:
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL N of UK below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080318
TEMP:
MAY Below normal JUN Below normal JUL S above N below norma
PPN :
MAY N below elsewhere above JUN NW below SE above JUL above normal



CanSIPS 280218
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal but SW UK and SE Eire normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY N/NE UK normal elsewhere including Eire below normal JUN N UK above S UK and S Eire below elsewhere normal JUL N England and Scotland normal elsewhere below





2018 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 170318 -
Temperatures likely to be near or slightly above normal for the season. Some indication that July summary may be see larger anomalies than August and that parts of Eire, N Wales N England and S Scotland could see slightly cooler August.
Not much agreement for rainfall either month to month or for the season but hints at below normal except in SW, perhaps S, of England and in the N/NW of UK where normal or above normal rainfall is possible.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220318
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NE England but above in NW Eire, central and W Scotland
JUN normal but above in W and Central Scotland and W of Eire, below in Wales and Midlands and parts of NE England JUL normal but below in Conrwall and N Ireland but above in W Eire, Central Scotland and Midlands AUG normal but locally above in central Midlands Central Eire and W Highlands locally below in N Ireland SW Eire Wales and parts fo NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140318
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands SW and W Scotland and W Eire
JUN normal locally below in E Scotland and S Wales but above in W Eire JUL Locally below in Cornwall but above in Midlands NW ENgland NW Eire and all W half Scotland AUG mostly above normal but NE Scotland below, N Ireland and NE England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070318
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUN normal but W Eire above and Wales and Midlands below normal JUL N Eire, N Ireland S Scotland and far N England normal elsewhere below normal AUG NE Scotland below normnal. W and S Scotlandm S Eire SW England NW England Midlands and SE England above normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280218
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN near normal JUL near normal AUG near normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire SW England, W and Central Scotland
JUN Above normal but normal in NE and E Scotland E and SE England JUL normal locally below ENE Scotland and NE England but above in Cornwall, Devon and Eire AUG normal but above in Central and NW Scotland much of Eire and Devon and Cornwall.




Korea APCC - 2606318
TEMP: JUN above normal JUL No Signal but SE above normal AUG no signal
PPN :
JUN No Signal JUL No Signal AUG No Signal



USA - IRI - 160318 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal
PPN : SW England Eire and N Ireland no signal elsewhere below normal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150318
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: no signal but hint at above in westcountry and below in Western Isles
PPN: chance of below normal in S half of UK elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal but hint at above in SW Eire
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: NW UK below elsewhere no signal
PPN: chance of below normal in S two thirds of UK elsewhere no signal
PMSL: N above elsewhere no signal
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: Wales and SW above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: N below normal elsewhere no signal
PPN: Far N above most of England, Wales and S half of Eire below.
PMSL: no signal



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150318
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP: Season: SW England and Eire below elsewhere slightly above
JUN Above normal JUL SE above elsewhere below normal AUG Above normal
PPN: Season: below normal but SE Scotland and N England above
JUN below normal JUL N of UK below elsewhere above AUG England and Wales below elsewhere above




UKMO - 120318 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: normal or above normal. The N and having similar probs for normal and above but elsewhere higher probs for above
PPN : normal or above with above slightly more likely
PSML: N normal elsewhere below normal




ECMWF - monthly - graphics 120318
EC1

ECMWF - monthly - 120318 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUN normal JUL normal but west country slightly above AUG normal but west country slightly above
PPN:
JUN N half of Scotland, W Scotland, far N of N Ireland and SE England above. Eire, E Wales, Midlands and parts of S of England below elsewhere normal JUL below normal AUG below normal





USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080318
TEMP:
JUN Below normal JUL S above N below normal AUG near or below normnal
PPN :
JUN NW below SE above JUL above normal AUG above normal



CanSIPS 280218
TEMP: season: above normal
JUN above normal but SW UK and SE Eire normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : season: S UK below normal elsewhere normal
JUN N UK above S UK and S Eire below elsewhere normal JUL N England and Scotland normal elsewhere below AUG normal but Eire,N Ireland and far W Scotland above S



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080318
TEMP: season - Above normal
PPN rate: season - NW above normal elsewhere normal (NASA hints at above normal all area otherwise models are near normal)



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 160318
TEMP: season - normal hint of above inn S Jul and Aug
PPN rate: season - normal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8



Graphics 080318
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2018 JUL AUG SEP


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220318
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W and central Scotland parts of W Eire and central Midlands
JUL normal but below in Conrwall and N Ireland but above in W Eire, Central Scotland and Midlands AUG normal but locally above in central Midlands Central Eire and W Highlands locally below in N Ireland SW Eire Wales and parts fo NE England SEP normal but above in W Scotland and W Eire but below in Wales.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140318
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands S and W Scotland and W Eire
JUL Locally below in Cornwall but above in Midlands NW ENgland NW Eire and all W half Scotland AUG mostly above normal but NE Scotland below, N Ireland and NE England normal SEP normal locally above in MIdlands and locally below in SW Eire N Ireland and NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070318
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280218
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England S and W Eire Central and NW Scotland



USA - IRI - 160318 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: No signal
PPN : Central England and far NW Scotland above normal, NW Wales, NW England, SW and NE Scotland below normal elsewhere no signal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080318
TEMP:
JUL S above N below normal AUG near or below normnal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP:
JUL SE above elsewhere below normal AUG Above normal SEP Above normal
PPN:
JUL N of UK below elsewhere above AUG England and Wales below elsewhere above SEP below normal



CanSIPS 280218
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL N England and Scotland normal elsewhere below AUG normal but Eire,N Ireland and far W Scotland above SEP below normal





2018 AUG SEP OCT


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220318
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in central Midlands W Eire, Central and all W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140318
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but normal in NE Scotland and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070318
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280218
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080318
TEMP:
AUG near or below normnal SEP above normal OCT S above N below normal
PPN :
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP:
AUG Above normal SEP Above normal OCT Above normal N
PPN:
AUG England and Wales below elsewhere above SEP below normal OCT above normal



CanSIPS 280218
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
AUG normal but Eire,N Ireland and far W Scotland above SEP below normal OCT normal but Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland and N England above.





2018 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 160318 - Temperature likely to be above normal and rainfall mostly above normal for season possibly wettest in October.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220318
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire and Central Lowlands and S + W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140318
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales and Midlands



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080318
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT S above N below normal NOV normal
PPN :
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP: Season: Above normal
SEP Above normal OCT Above normal NOV Above normal D
PPN: Season: S of England, N ireland and Scotland above normal elsewhere below
SEP below normal OCT above normal NOV above normal



CanSIPS 280218
TEMP: season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal NOV above normal
PPN : season: normal
SEP below normal OCT normal but Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland and N England above. NOV Eire, N Ireland and W UK above elsewhere normal




2018 OCT NOV DEC


CanSIPS 280218
TEMP:
OCT Eire and SW England normal elsewhere above normal NOV above normal DEC normal but far SE England above normal
PPN :
OCT normal but Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland and N England above. NOV Eire, N Ireland and W UK above elsewhere normal DEC N Scotland above elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP: Season:
OCT Above normal NOV Above normal DEC Above normal
PPN: Season:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC Scotland above elsewhere below





2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN


CanSIPS 280218
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal but far SE England above normal JAN normal
PPN :
NOV Eire, N Ireland and W UK above elsewhere normal DEC N Scotland above elsewhere normal JAN N Scotland below SW Uk above elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP:
NOV Above normal DEC Above normal JAN Above normal
PPN:
NOV above normal DEC Scotland above elsewhere below JAN Wales and S of England below elsewhere above





2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - 170318 limited data - Temperature normal or above normal with variable rainfall probably ending up near normal.



CanSIPS 280218
TEMP: season: W normal elsewhere above
DEC normal but far SE England above normal JAN normal FEB normal
PPN : season: SE Eire and SW England above elsewhere normal
DEC N Scotland above elsewhere normal JAN N Scotland below SW Uk above elsewhere normal FEB far N below elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP: Season: Above normal
DEC Above normal JAN Above normal FEB Above normal
PPN: Season: S and SW England also W Eire below elsewhere above normal
DEC Scotland above elsewhere below JAN Wales and S of England below elsewhere above FEB N Scotland below elsewhere above





2019 JAN FEB MAR




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120318 -
TEMP: Season:
JAN Above normal FEB Above normal MAR SW and E England above elsewhere below normal
PPN: Season:
JAN Wales and S of England below elsewhere above FEB N Scotland below elsewhere above MAR above normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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