SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - February 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 280317 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4, NMME, Combinatin, CFS2 and UKMO Tropical N Atlantic latest plot. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME ENS Mean ENSO CFS latest UKMO Tropical N Atlantic


October Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
All data now complete 280317 - next update 3 April 2017.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (020317, 080317, 120317, 200317, 260317) CanSips 010317, Russia 020317, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090317, US Natinal Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 090317, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 090317, UKMO seasonal 120317, BCC China 120317, Japan JMA 130317, Internatinal IMME 150317, USA - IRI 160317, Korea APCC 240317, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF280317, UKMO Contingency 280317.



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at reginal detail for SW England click here after about the 20th





APR MAY JUN


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - added 15 April for comparison. Nominal forecast start date 1ST March.
TEMP: Eire N Ireland and W Scotland near normal elsewhere 0.2 to 0.5 positive anomaly. Enhanced probs for upper quintile except Midlands, W and NW Eire and W Scotland
PPN: Mean anomaly +/-20mm. N Ireland, E Eire W Scotland and W Wales 40 to 50% prob above normal elsewhere no signal.
PMSL: No signal similar probs above/normal/belop w
ECMWF
TEMP: NW Eire no signal elsewhere above normal. High probs exceeding median. Enhanced probs for upper quintile.
PPN: Scotland and west Eire no signal elsewhere above normal 0 to 50mm. All areas upper tercile 40 to 60%. mostv areas 30 o 40% prob upper quintile
PMSL: below normal. S of Uk and S Eire near normal most likely.
UKMO
TEMP: Above normal, 70%+ probs above median. Enhaced probs for upper quintile Ne Scotland, SE Eire, W Wales and SW England
PPN: SE England and near SW Wales 0 to 50mm above normal elsewhere no signal. Tercile summary abiove normal indicated for Eire, N Ireland S Scotland N England SW Wales Cornwall and SE England. Enhanced oribs for upper quintile
PMSL: Above to NE and below to SW UK mostly near normal
METEO FRANCE
TEMP: Wales and SW England also NE Scotland above normal. Enhanced probs for upper quitile in SW
PPN: E England and SE Scotland below NW Scotland above elsewhere no signal. Enhance dprobs for upper quintile in wetter NW and drier E England
PMSL: near or slightly above normal



Comment - 280317 - Rainfall: later data suggests April drier than normal in many areas including the S and perhaps the season as a whole though less agreement. (UKMO contiingency suggests more anticyclonic conditions than average). Good agreement for above normal temperatures.

Summary - 140317 - Main signal is for above normal temperatures for the season, perhaps with May slightly less above "normal" in the S of UK than other months. Some hints at less above normal in W and SW of Uk and Eire and perhaps parts of NE England but no significant consistency between models.
Rainfall, main theme is for some areas to be below normal - mostly the N of the UK for the season as a whole but for most areas to be near normal. No strong signals for above normal although the South is perhaps more likely than the North. Hints at wetter in South in April and June but drier area over N France could be displaced north.




NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolutin output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260317
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above normal
APR above normal locally well above in central lowland Scotland MAY normal locally above in SW Eire and SW England JUN NE England normnal elsewhere above locally well above in W Cornwall
PPN: Season: N half Scotland and SE England normal elsewhere below normal
APR below or well below normal MAY SW Eire and W Scotland below, Wales SW and SW Midlands above elsewhere normal JUN N half Sciotland above S Wales, SW England and S Midlands below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200317
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above normal
APR above normal MAY normal but SW England above JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in SW England S Wales most of Eire and NE England elsewhere normal
APR N Scotland normal elsewhere below especially SW UK and SW Eire MAY normal but above near London and below in N and W Eire JUN W Scotland above W Wales and SE Eire below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120317
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in NE England
APR above normal but normal in Eire, N Ireland, N Wales, N Midlands and N of England MAY Above normal but normal in SW Eire, N Ireland, Midlands and N of England JUN above nornal but normal in NE England
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N England
APR Below normal in Midlands, Wales, SW England and SW Eire. MAY Above in S Wales all of S England and locally central Eire, elsewhere normal JUN normal but below in N England and Scotland locally well below in Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080317
TEMP: Season: W Eire and NE England normal elsewhere above
APR Wales SW and all S of England, also N half of Scotland above normal elsewhere normal MAY Scotland and Cornwall above elsewhere normal JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NE England and SE Scotland
APR N Englnd, N Ireland and most of Eire (except SW) normal elsewhere below normal MAY normnal but Midlands and SW England above JUN Central Eire above, below in E and central Scotland N and NE and E England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020317
TEMP: Season: normal but N half Scotland above
APR Scotland, NW England and SE/S England above elsewhere normal MAY Scotland, N Ireland and far SE England above elsewhere normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: far NW Scotland and SW England above elsewhere normal
APR S Eire and S half of England below elsewhere normal MAY SE Eire, Wales Midlands and central S England above elsewhere normal JUN SW England, N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere normal



UKMO Contingency 280317 Increased chance of anticyclonic conditins in April and also slightly increased chance for the season.
TEMP: April plots are shifted above average with less than 20% of solutins below normal. For the season less than 15% of the output suggests below average with an unusually high number of solutins showing anomalies higher than 1.5 deg C above average. Could be warmer than 6 of last 10 years.
April: Above average temperatures more likely.
April to June: Above average temperatures more likely. Chance of being well below normal redueced to 5% and chance of being well above unusually high at 45% (normal prob is 20%).
PPN: Although there are slightly more solutins showning below average in April there are two similar clusters at slightly above and slightly below normal. For the season although the main cluster of sulutins show below average there is a significant cluster sowing above average and the middle value is probably near normal. Hence rainfall remains less certain than temperature.
April: Below average more likely than above
April to June: Below average more likely than above but probs for well above are at 20% and well below average 15-20%.



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 280317 (data 13th)
TEMP: Above normal in Eire Wales and most of England, below in NE Scotland elsewhere no signal
PPN: Scotland below, S Eire W Wales and SW England above elsewhere no signal


Korea APCC - 240317
Temp: Season above normal 50% prob
APR above normal 40 to 60% highest in W MAY above normal 40 to 60% highest in NW JUN above normal 40 to 50% highest in W
PPN : Season similar probs for above/normal/below
APR SW Eire and SW UK aove normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below MAY similar probs for above/normal/below JUN similar probs for above/normal/below but hint of below in far SW



IRI multi-model ensemble informatin
USA - IRI - 160317 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: More than 60% prob for above normal in places more than 70% prob. Enhanced probs for well above normal.
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolutin 60 levels 0.1hPa top)
Japan JMA 130317
Temp: Season above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN : Season Scotland (except SW Scotland) below elsewhere above
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN below normal
PMSL: Season above normal (slack WNW)
APR below normal (Weak W) MAY above normal (Weak NW) JUN above normal (Weak WNW)



UKMO Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km mid-latitudes) resolutin 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels to 85 km. 75 ocean levels (0.25° x 0.25) - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members.
UKMO - 120317
TEMP: Prob above normal more than 60% and in Scotland over 80%. For the warmest in 5 year over 40% prob.
PPN : Enhanced probs for above normal PPN in SW and SE and signal for below normal over N half of UK. Similar signal for well above/well below normal in S but well below more probable in N.
PSML: N half of UK more than 60% prob for higher than normal pressure. This can be due to less lows crossing UK but also a signal for lower thasn normal pressure over France, so probably means more high pressure.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generatin coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolutin (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
PPN based on Precipitatin (Anomaly %) departure percentage of precipitatin rate
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
APR Above normnal but nearer normal in SW MAY above normal but only slightly in W JUN above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
APR England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal or below MAY SW England and NW Eire below elsewhere normal locally above JUN Eire and SW England normal or above elsewhere below normal



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 090317
Temp: slightly above normal
PPN : near normal but above in N Ireland, SW and W Scotland and NW Wales
PMSL: slightly below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: NE Scotland and SE England slightly above normal elsewhere normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL:


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090317
TEMP: Season Above normal
APR Above normal MAY Above normal JUN Above normal
PPN : Season normal
APR E and SE England normal elsewhere above MAY SE England normal elsewhere JUN normal


Russia - 020317
Temp: N Scotland above, Eire similar probs above/normal/below elsewhere normal
PPN : similar probs above/normal/below


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
APR W of Eire normal elsewhere above MAY W of Eire normal elsewhere above JUN SW of Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
APR NW Wales, N Ireland, N and E Eire above elsewhere normal. MAY SW England and SW Wales below elsewhere normal JUN normal but parts of NE and W Scotland below



Indicatin from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090317
See graphcs below for monthly variatin.
TEMP: season - All area above normal

PPN: season - North below normal South near or slightly above



Indicatin from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150317
TEMP: season - Above normal, less so for N Ireland and Eire
APR above normal MAY slightly above normal JUN above normal stronger signal
PPN rate: season - normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP not available

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2017 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260317
TEMP: Season: NE England, S Scotland and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above
MAY normal locally above in SW Eire and SW England JUN NE England normnal elsewhere above locally well above in W Cornwall JUL NE England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal
MAY SW Eire and W Scotland below, Wales SW and SW Midlands above elsewhere normal JUN N half Sciotland above S Wales, SW England and S Midlands below elsewhere normal JUL Above normal in S half Eire, SW England, Wales N and W Midlands and SW Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200317
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
MAY normal but SW England above JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: locally above in central Eire, Midlands and W Cornwall
MAY normal but above near London and below in N and W Eire JUN W Scotland above W Wales and SE Eire below elsewhere normal JUL normal but above in Eire, SW England Wales Midlands and S England SW and Central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120317
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
MAY Above normal but normal in SW Eire, N Ireland, Midlands and N of England JUN above nornal but normal in NE England JUL above normal but normal in NE England
PPN: Season: normal locally below in E Scotland and locally above in SW England and central Eire
MAY Above in S Wales all of S England and locally central Eire, elsewhere normal JUN normal but below in N England and Scotland locally well below in Scotland JUL normal but above in Cornwall, Eire, NW England and W Scotland. Locally below in NE Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080317
TEMP: Season: Normal in W England and N/NE England elsewhere above normal
MAY Scotland and Cornwall above elsewhere normal JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL SW England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Cornwall
MAY normnal but Midlands and SW England above JUN Central Eire above, below in E and central Scotland N and NE and E England elsewhere normal JUL normal but above in W Scotland, N Midlands and NE England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020317
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY Scotland, N Ireland and far SE England above elsewhere normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: NW and W Scotland and SW England above elsewhere normal
MAY SE Eire, Wales Midlands and central S England above elsewhere normal JUN SW England, N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere normal JUL SW Eire below. SW England, N England and W Scotland above elsewhere normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 280317 (data 13th)
TEMP: Above normal in Eire and N Ireland, Scotland and N England below in Scotland elsewhere no signal
PPN: Above normal in SE Eire and NW Wales below in Scotland elsewhere no signal


USA - IRI - 160317 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Ranging from 45% in SE to over 70% prob for above normal in NW.
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


UKMO - 120317
TEMP: Prob above normal more than 60% and in Central Lowland Scotland over 80%. For the warmest in 5 year over 40% prob in Scotland and over 25% elsewhere which is only slightly enhanced.
PPN : Enhanced probs for above normal PPN in Sof UK and signal for below normal over W Scotland. Signal for well above normal in S but well below more probable in N.
PSML: Slightly reduced signal for above normal with risk of below normal increased in the S/SW of England..



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY above normal but only slightly in W JUN above normal JUL above normal but N Scotland normal
PPN: Season: Eire above elsewhere below normal
MAY SW England and NW Eire below elsewhere normal locally above JUN Eire and SW England normal or above elsewhere below normal JUL below normal especially in N half of UK, risk of far S/SE being above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090317
TEMP: Season Above normal
MAY Above normal JUN Above normal JUL Above normal
PPN : Season S and E England normal elsewhere below
MAY SE England normal elsewhere JUN normal JUL S Eire, Wales and S of England normal elsewhere below


CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
MAY W of Eire normal elsewhere above JUN SW of Eire normal elsewhere above JUL above normal but well above in SE England
PPN :
MAY SW England and SW Wales below elsewhere normal JUN normal but parts of NE and W Scotland below JUL below normal





Summer 2017 JUN JUL AUG


Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - added 15 April for comparison Nominal March 1st Data time
TEMP: Eire and N Ireland near normal elsewhere above. 60-70% prob above median. All areas above in tercle summary. Enhanced UQ Scotland, N England, S Wales and SE Eire.
PPN: no signal but chance for far SE to be beklow and far NW above
PMSL: S may be below normal elsewhere no signal.
ECMWF
TEMP: above normal. 70% probs in N 60% in S and W. UQ enhnaced probs Scotland
PPN: very limited signals. Hint of below normal in parts of Scotland except far NW where above possible. Near normal SE Eire, Wales and N England. Above normal in far SE England and far NW Scotland
PMSL: Tercile S half of UK more likely to be below normal. LQ enhanced probs in S.
UKMO
TEMP: above normal. 70% plus probs. UQ probs 40 to 50% Scotland elsewhere 30 to 40%
PPN: Above normal SE Eire NE Scotland and SE England. Above more likely than below but no signal N Eire, N Ireland and most of Scotland apart from N. Enhanced probs for UQ in NE Scotland and SE England
PMSL: S more likely below no signal elsewhere
METEO FRANCE
TEMP: Eire and N Ireland no signal elsewhere above normal. UQ E Scotland SW Wales and SW England.
PPN: S Wales and S half of England below normal. Elsewhere no signal but hint far NW above normal. Enhanced probs for LQ (lower quintile) SE Eire and S half of UK.
PMSL: above in S Eire and S UK, enhanced probs for UQ in SW


Summary - 140317 (may be updated when IMME is available) - No indicatin for below normal temperature, strongest indicatin for above and possibly well above normal in the S/SE of UK during July and August.
Rainfall much more variable signal but main theme of normal or below normal for many but hints at above normal in S of UK and Eire in June and in the N of UK during August. Monthly variatins often a poor guide only small locatin error in wetter/drier areas needed to shift the theme.
Reduced siganl for above normal pressure especially in the S and notable over France may mean increased risk of thundery lows/showers in the S of UK.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260317
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
JUN NE England normnal elsewhere above locally well above in W Cornwall JUL NE England normal elsewhere above AUG E and SE Scotland N England and N Midlands normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal
JUN N half Sciotland above S Wales, SW England and S Midlands below elsewhere normal JUL Above normal in S half Eire, SW England, Wales N and W Midlands and SW Scotland elsewhere normal AUG normal locally below in N Scotland and N Ireland .

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200317
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above normal
JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL above normal AUG normal but above in SW England, Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland
PPN: Season: Above normal in Wire, NW England, N Midlands, W Scotland and W Cornwall elsewhere normal
JUN W Scotland above W Wales and SE Eire below elsewhere normal JUL normal but above in Eire, SW England Wales Midlands and S England SW and Central Scotland AUG Above normal in N England, most of Scotland and W Eire elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120317
TEMP: Season: Above but N Midlands and N England normal
JUN above nornal but normal in NE England JUL above normal but normal in NE England AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Cornwall, W Scotland and W Eire
JUN normal but below in N England and Scotland locally well below in Scotland JUL normal but above in Cornwall, Eire, NW England and W Scotland. Locally below in NE Scotland. AUG Normal in NE England and N Ireland elsewhere above normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080317
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SW England and Kent
JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL SW England above elsewhere normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland and Cornwall
JUN Central Eire above, below in E and central Scotland N and NE and E England elsewhere normal JUL normal but above in W Scotland, N Midlands and NE England. AUG Normal in Eire (except SE), N Ireland, NE Midlands and NE England elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020317
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: Normal but above in NW and W Scotland< NW England and SW England
JUN SW England, N Ireland and W Scotland above elsewhere normal JUL SW Eire below. SW England, N England and W Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG Normal but above in Midlands and SE England, Cornwall, Devon and NW Scotland



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 280317 (data 13th)
TEMP: Above normal in Eire, N Ireland, Wales and SW England. Scotland and N England below in Scotland elsewhere no signal
PPN: Below normal mostly 33-50% probs


USA - IRI - 160317 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Ranging from 40% in S/SE to over 60% prob for above normal in N/NW.
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


UKMO - 120317
TEMP: Prob above normal more than 60%. For the warmest in 5 year over 40% prob but only over 25% in S of UK and Eire.
PPN : Enhanced probs for above normal PPN in S half of UK and Eire. Signal for well above normal in S and especially SE England. Elsewhere in UK similar probs for above/normal/below.
PSML: Near normal with chance of below in S of UK.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal but N Scotland normal AUG above normal, less so in S
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN Eire and SW England normal or above elsewhere below normal JUL below normal especially in N half of UK, risk of far S/SE being above AUG Far N Scotland above elsewhere below, strong signal in S



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090317
TEMP: Season Above normal
JUN Above normal JUL Above normal AUG Above normal
PPN : Season normal
JUN normal JUL S Eire, Wales and S of England normal elsewhere below AUG Wales, SW and S of England slightly above, Scotland below elsewhere normal


CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
JUN SW of Eire normal elsewhere above JUL above normal but well above in SE England AUG SW of Eire normal elsewhere above S
PPN :
JUN normal but parts of NE and W Scotland below JUL below normal AUG Scotland, N Ireland and parts of London area above elsewhere normal



Indicatin from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090317
TEMP: season - above normal

PPN: season - S of England below, N of Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire above elsewhere normal



Indicatin from Internatinal Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150317
TEMP: season - Above normal, less so for N Ireland and Eire
JUN above normal stronger signal JUL above normal stronger signal AUG above normal less strong signal
PPN rate: season - normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP not available

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P



NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P


2017 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260317
TEMP: Season: NE Scotland NE England and midlands normal elsewhere above
APR above normal locally well above in central lowland Scotland MAY normal locally above in SW Eire JUL NE England normal elsewhere above AUG E and SE Scotland N England and N Midlands normal elsewhere above SEP NW England, SW England, S and W Wales, N Ireland and Eire above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Central Lowland Scotland
JUL Above normal in S half Eire, SW England, Wales N and W Midlands and SW Scotland elsewhere normal AUG normal locally below in N Scotland and N Ireland SEP NW Scotland above Miodlands Wales and SW England below elsewhere normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200317
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
JUL above normal AUG normal but above in SW England, Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland SEP normal but above in SW England, N Ireland, W Scotland and most of Eire
PPN: Season: NE England, NE Scotland and much of S England normal elsewhere above
JUL normal but above in Eire, SW England Wales Midlands and S England SW and Central Scotland AUG Above normal in N England, most of Scotland and W Eire elsewhere normal SEP Normal in NE Scotland and SW England elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120317
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and far E/SE of England
JUL above normal but normal in NE England AUG normal SEP normal but above in E of England and NW Scotland
PPN: Season: Above normal but normal in NE ScotlandNE and SE England
JUL normal but above in Cornwall, Eire, NW England and W Scotland. LOcally below in NE Scotland. AUG Normal in NE England and N Ireland elsewhere above normal SEP above normal but normal in N Ireland SE England and N half of Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080317
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in N England, S and W Scotland, N Ireland and central Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020317
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Normal but W and NW Scotland above



Korea APCC - 240317
Temp: Season above normal 50% prob
JUL above normal 40 to 50% AUG above normal 50% SEP above normal 40 to 50% prob
PPN : Season similar probs for above/normal/below
JUL similar probs for above/normal/below AUG similar probs for above/normal/below SEP similar probs for above/normal/below



USA - IRI - 160317 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Ranging from 40% in SW of Eire and UK to over 60% prob for above normal in NE.
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL above normal but N Scotland normal AUG above normal, less so in S SEP above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUL below normal especially in N half of UK, risk of far S/SE being above AUG Far N Scotland above elsewhere below, strong signal in S SEP England and Wales below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090317
TEMP: Season Above normal
JUL Above normal AUG Above normal SEP Above normal
PPN : Season normal
JUL S Eire, Wales and S of England normal elsewhere below AUG Wales, SW and S of England slightly above, Scotland below elsewhere normal SEP SW England below, N Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal


CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
JUL above normal but well above in SE England AUG SW of Eire normal elsewhere above SEP SW England and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JUL below normal AUG Scotland, N Ireland and parts of Londin area above elsewhere normal SEP E of England normal elsewhere below





2017 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260317
TEMP: Season:
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Wales and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200317
TEMP: Season: above normal in all W Scotland, Eire, SW England and parts of E Anglia
PPN: Season: Above normal in W of Eire, NW England and W Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120317
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in most of Scotland except NE

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080317
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Normal but above in N England, Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
AUG above normal, less so in S SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
AUG Far N Scotland above elsewhere below, strong signal in S SEP England and Wales below elsewhere above OCT mostly below but N Wales and N Midlands above



CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
AUG SW of Eire normal elsewhere above SEP SW England and Eire normal elsewhere above OCT SW England and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
AUG Scotland, N Ireland and parts of Londin area above elsewhere normal SEP E of England normal elsewhere below OCT normal but Wales, Midlands and E of England below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090317
TEMP:
AUG Above normal SEP Above normal OCT Above normal
PPN :
AUG Wales, SW and S of England slightly above, Scotland below elsewhere normal SEP SW England below N Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT S Eire, Wales SW and S of England above elsewhere normal.




2017 SEP OCT NOV



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260317
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200317
TEMP: Season: Normal in NE England. central Midlands and central S England elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Scotland and far W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120317
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Eire, NW Scotland E Midlands and E England.
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: Scotand and N Ireland below normal elsewhere above normal
SEP England and Wales below elsewhere above OCT mostly below but N Wales and N Midlands above NOV far NW Scotland beklow elsewhere above, especially W Wales



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090317
TEMP:
SEP Above normal OCT Above normal NOV Normal but Eire, N Ireland Wales and SW England above normal
PPN :
SEP SW England below N Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal OCT S Eire, Wales SW and S of England above elsewhere normal NOV S Eire, Wales and SW England above far NW Scotland below elsewhere normal


CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
SEP SW England and Eire normal elsewhere above OCT SW England and Eire normal elsewhere above NOV SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN :
SEP E of England normal elsewhere below OCT normal but Wales, Midlands and E of England below NOV Normal but England, Wales and S Eire above





2017 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal locally near normal in S
PPN: Season: N Scotland and S England below normal elsewhere above
OCT mostly below but N Wales and N Midlands above NOV far NW Scotland beklow elsewhere above, especially W Wales DEC England and Wales below elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
OCT SW England and Eire normal elsewhere above NOV SE England above elsewhere normal DEC E Scotland and E of England above elsewhere normal
PPN :
OCT normal but Wales, Midlands and E of England below NOV Normal but England, Wales and S Eire above DEC above normal





2017 NOV DEC 2018 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
NOV above normal DEC above normal locally near normal in S JAN above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland below normal elsewhere above
NOV far NW Scotland beklow elsewhere above, especially W Wales DEC England and Wales below elsewhere above JAN N Scotland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
NOV SE England above elsewhere normal DEC E Scotland and E of England above elsewhere normal JAN far NE Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
NOV Normal but England, Wales and S Eire above DEC above normal JAN normal but above in N Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland and NW England





2017 DEC 2018 JAN FEB


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal locally near normal in S JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland below normal elsewhere above
DEC England and Wales below elsewhere above JAN N Scotland below elsewhere above FEB N Scotland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 280217
TEMP:
DEC E Scotland and E of England above elsewhere normal JAN far NE Scotland above elsewhere normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC above normal JAN normal but above in N Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland and NW England FEB below or well below





2018 JAN FEB MAR


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120317 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR far N and E of UK above elsewhere below normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland below normal elsewhere above
JAN N Scotland below elsewhere above FEB N Scotland below elsewhere above MAR Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere above





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observatin - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolutin - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolutin versin of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminatin is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Predictin Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administratin. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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