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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - FEB 2015 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 300315. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


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Seasonal text latest


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MARCH data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

FINAL UPDATE for March 300315.

NOTE 1: It is much easier to have above normal UK temps when compared to 1961-1990 series than 1981-2010
Note 2:UKMO climate model change and ENDGAME UKMO Notice



Sites with no data
Russia WEB SITE not WORKING 020215 ok again 140215
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



APR MAY JUN 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary Atlantic dominated by below normal Sea temperatures, for example click here. Hence western areas (especially W of Eire) at risk of near or below normal temps even with westerly types. East more likely to be above normal (especially compared to 1961-90 averages).
PPN signal mixed with CFS2 more or lesss opposite signal to UKMO but hint that May could be wetter than normal in NW UK but overall within normal spread of possibilities.



UKMO contingency 300315 - Colder than normal Atlantic Sea temps mentioned as caution. Above normal pressure in S hinting at mobility across the N rather than the south.
TEMP: APRIL: Signal for above normal with slightly enhance probs of well above normal
Season: Overall near or slightly below normal seems to be the signal from the distribution but with reduced probs of well below normal. Given the April signal for above normal there is a sugestion here that May or June could be cooler than normal.
PPN: APRIL: Large spread, median value near normal. Slightly enhanced risk of above or well above normal.
Season: Median valued near or slightly below normal although overall signal is for near or above normal with slightly enhanced risk for well above normal. (Note with above normal pressure anomaly in south UK average precip probably hides variablility of rainfall distribution NW/SE).



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220315
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal risk colder in NE England JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Scotland above
APR England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal but below normal in S Eire JUN normal but parts of Eire, SW England, Wales and SW Scotland below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150315
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal risk colder in NE England JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR above normal but SE England and NE Scotland normal MAY normal but below normal in SE Eire E Wales and across the Midlands JUN normal but parts of Eire, SW England, Wales and most of Scotland below normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080315
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in far SE England
APR normal but above in Cornwall, Eire, N Ireland Scotland and N England MAY above normal but normal in S and E Eire, N Ireland far N Scotland and NE England JUN above normal in SE England, Below normal Scotland and NE England elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010315
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Cornwall N England S and W Scotland and S and W Eire.
APR normal but above NW Scotland W Eire and W Northern Ireland parts of NW England but below S Wales. MAY above normal but normal in N Scotland JUN normal but E Wales below and above in SW Eire, S and Central Scotland and Cornwall



Korea APCC - 250315
Temp: Season near or in west below normal - due below normal Atlantic SST
APR normal but below in W (mainly Eire) and above in E MAY normal but below in W JUN normal
PPN : above normal epecially in W and S
APR above normal in N and W MAY normal JUN normal


USA - IRI - 200315 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal 45% prob Scotland and S Eire elsewhere 50%, Below normal 20% prob.
PPN : no signal


Japan JMA 190315
Temp: Season near/slightly below normal
APR Scotland near/slightly above normal elsewhere near/slightly below normal MAY near/slightly below JUN slightly below normal
PPN : Season near/slightly below normal perhaps slightly above in SW England and NE Scotland
APR South near/slightly below normal North near/slightly above normal MAY near/slightly above normal JUN Eire, N Ireland and Scotland near/slightly below normal elsewhere near/slightly above
PMSL: Season slightly above normal (weak mean flow WNW)
APR slightly above (weak WNW) MAY slightly above (weak WNW) JUN near normal weak flow signal (variable patterns)


BCC China - 150315 - from 010315
TEMP: Season: below normal especially Scotland Wales and NW England elsewhere normal or slightly below
PPN: Season: normal or slightly above but Eire slightly below


UK - 120315 - Jet flow probably more often than not to the NW of UK. Unsettled in N. Less so in S.
TEMP: Enhanced probs for above normal in East. N Ireland, England, Wales and E of Eire more likely to be near normal (above normal compared to 61-90 period) with the west of Eire mpre likely to be below normal. Enhanced probs for well above norma, in E/NE of UK.
PPN : Slightly enhanced probs for above normal in W Scotland and below normal in England and Wales. Slightly ehanced probs for well above normal in NW UK and over Eire and well below in E/SE of UK. (Skill is poor for PPN).
PSML: Overall signal for above normal pressure on average in the S of UK and below in the N.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090315 Enhanced Atlantic Jet towards UK in April then above normal heights in S of UK until August.
TEMP: Season normal
APR normal but SW UK and Eire below normal MAY S Eire, SW England, SE England normal elsewhere below normal JUN above normal but SE England normal
PPN : Season normal
APR normal but SW slightly below MAY normal but Scotland slightly below JUN slightly below


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - 100315 - two outputs schemes
Temp: normal
PPN : normal but SE England above normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but SW Eire below
PPN : normal but SW Eire above


Russia 040315
Temp: Near normal fairly strong signal but for NW Scotland below normal more likely.
PPN : High probs below normal - suspect output most areas of Globe forecast below normal which seems unlikely?
Updated run at end of March suggested above normal in W Scotland and perhaps E coasts of UK elsewhere similar probs above/normal/below


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 100315
TEMP: SEASON: near normal
PPN: SEASON: near or below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 100315
Coldest models NASA GEOS5 and GFDL FLOR
TEMP: SEASON: near normal but slightly above in E of UK
PPN: SEASON: no signal for departure from normal



CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



NMME MAX and MIN




NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





MAY JUN JUL 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary 120615 - near or slightly above normal temps but risk of cooler values in far W. Above normal PPN in N/NW uncertain detail elsewhere.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220315
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal risk colder in NE England JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal but S Eire below
MAY normal but below normal in S Eire JUN normal but parts of Eire, SW England, Wales and SW Scotland below normal JUL normal but above in W Scotland and W Eire perhaps parts of SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150315
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal risk colder in NE England JUN normal JUL normal br> PPN: Season: normal, slightly below in places
MAY normal but below normal in SE Eire E Wales and across the Midlands JUN normal but parts of Eire, SW England, Wales and most of Scotland below normal JUL normal but above in W Scotland and W Eire perhaps below in SE Eire and London area

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080315
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY above normal but normal in S and E Eire, N Irelnd far N Scotland and NE England JUN above normal in SE England, Below normal Scotland and NE England elsewhere normal JUL W Scotland and W Eire above normal, below normal in S and E Eire SW England Wales and central and W Midlands elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010315
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal but NE England below
PPN: Season: above normal but normal Centrakl Wales, Midlands, NE England and NE Scotland
MAY above normal but normal in N Scotland JUN normal but E Wales below and above in SW Eire, S and Central Scotland and Cornwall JUL normal but above in W Eire, W and NE Scotland



USA - IRI - 200315 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal probs range from 50% in NW Scotland to 40% in SE England where prob of below normal 25%.
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 150315 - from 010315
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly below
PPN: Season: normal but SW England slightly above


UK - 120315
TEMP: slightly enhanced probs for the W of Eire to be below and the E of UK to be above elsewhere increased probs for near normal. Again enhanced probs for well below in far W and well above in E.
PPN : enhanced probs for normal or below normal in England and Wales and for aabove normal in NW UK.
PSML: Mostly within normal range but slightly enhanced probs for above normal in S.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090315 Enhanced Atlantic Jet towards UK in April then above normal heights in S of UK until August.
TEMP: Season normal
MAY S Eire, SW England, SE England normal elsewhere below normal JUN above normal but SE England normal JUL normal but Scotland slightly below
PPN : Season normal but N Scotland below
MAY normal but Scotland slightly below JUN slightly below JUL normal



SUMMER JUN JUL AUG 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Comment 250315 - APCC Korea warms out Atlantic cold SST by July Summary 120615 - above normal (61-90) temperatures probable especially in S and E - near normal or slightly above (1981-2010) period. Risk of W/NW being cooler than normal. Probable a typically unsetttled type for UK especially the N but less so in the S. Hence for the south a fairly reasonable summer but with uncertain PPN detail - wetter later?
. Summary 100615 - Hint at wetter later in summer and drier earlier in CFS2 output with some support from NMME probs.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220315
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Scotland above
JUN normal but parts of Eire, SW England, Wales and SW Scotland below normal JUL normal but above in W Scotland and W Eire perhaps parts of SW England AUG above but normal in N Ireland SW England and N ENgand S Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150315
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but NW Scotland and parts of W Eire above normal
JUN normal but parts of Eire, SW England, Wales and most of Scotland below normal JUL normal but above in W Scotland and W Eire perhaps below in SE Eire and London area AUG slightly above normal but normal for N Ireland, Wales, N England, E and SE England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080315
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal Wales below normal and W Highland above.
JUN above normal in SE England, Below normal Scotland and NE England elsewhere normal JUL W Scotland and W Eire above normal, below normal in S and E Eire SW England Wales and central and W Midlands elsewhere normal AUG mostly above normal but normal in NE/E Scotland and NE England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010315
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal but NE England below AUG normal but NE England below
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W and NW Eire SW Scotland and NW England
JUN normal but E Wales below and above in SW Eire, S and Central Scotland and Cornwall JUL normal but above in W Eire, W and NE Scotland AUG normal but above in W and N Eire, W Northen Ireland, W Scotland, N Midlands and N England.


Korea APCC - 250315
Temp:
JUN normal JUL normal (colder SST warmed out) AUG normal but above in NE/E
PPN :
JUN normal JUL normal hint drier in E AUG normal



USA - IRI - 200315 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal 50% far NW Scotland to 40% over S half of Eire and S England. Below normal 25% prob in SE.
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 150315 - from 010315
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: normal perhaps slightly above in NW Scotland


UK - 120315 - main concern is failure to warm out the Atlantic cold sea temperature anomaly which may well be incorrect.
TEMP: Enhanced risk of W (mainly Eire) below below or well below normal witht the E of UK above or well above. Enhanced probs ofr normal for other areas
PPN : Reduced probs for above normal across the S/SW of UK. Enhanced probs for above normal or well above normal across the N and NW of UK, including N Ireland.
PSML: normal range of variablilty.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090315 Enhanced Atlantic Jet towards UK in April then above normal heights in S of UK until August.
TEMP: Season normal but far NW Scotland slightly below normal and Cornwall slightly above
JUN above normal but SE England normal JUL normal but Scotland slightly below AUG normal but Scotland slightly below
PPN : Season normal
JUN slightly below JUL normal AUG normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 100315
TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal

PPN: SEASON: near or below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 100315

TEMP: SEASON: slightly above normal but Eire normal

PPN: SEASON: no signal for departure from normal


CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





JUL AUG SEP 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220315
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in W Scotland and W Eire perhaps parts of SW England AUG above but normal in N Ireland SW England and N ENgand S Scotland SEP SE England and NW Scotland normal elsewhere below normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150315
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
JUL normal but above in W Scotland and W Eire perhaps below in SE Eire and London area AUG slightly above normal but normal for N Ireland, Wales, N England, E and SE England. SEP E of England above normal, much of Eire, NW England and W half Scotland below normal elsewhere normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above W Scotland and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal for S Eire, NE Scotland Wales and England.



USA - IRI - 200315 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: SW Eire were no signal (implies colder). Otherwise above normal 50% over Scotland to 40% elsewhere, below normal 25% prob in S.
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 150315 - from 010315
TEMP: Season: normal but perhaps above in England, Wales and S Eire.
PPN: Season: normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090315 Enhanced Atlantic Jet towards UK in April then above normal heights in S of UK until August.
TEMP: Season normal but Scotland slightly below normal
JUL normal but Scotland slightly below AUG normal but Scotland slightly below SEP normal but Scotland slightly below
PPN : Season normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal but NW Scotland slightly above



AUG SEP OCT 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Scotland, W Eire and E of England above


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal b ut above in W Eire, Midlands, Central and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in SW Eire, N Wales and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal



BCC China - 150315 - from 010315
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: normal or slightly above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090315 Enhanced Atlantic Jet towards UK in April then above normal heights in S of UK until August.
TEMP:
AUG normal but Scotland slightly below SEP normal but Scotland slightly below OCT normal but Scotland and SW England slightly below
PPN:
AUG normal SEP normal but NW Scotland slightly above OCT normal but Eire and SW England above



Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150315
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Eire, SW Midlands and SE Wales, W and SW Scotland


BCC China - 150315 - from 010315
TEMP: Season: normal but Eire slighly below
PPN: Season: normal or slightly above but Eire and Cornwall slightly below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 090315
TEMP:
SEP normal but Scotland slightly below OCT normal but Scotland and SW England slightly below NOV slightly above normal
PPN :
SEP normal but NW Scotland slightly above OCT normal but Eire and SW England above NOV normal but Eire above


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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