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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - MAY 2015 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 300615. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


June data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

All data in.

Data used so far: NCEP CFS2 (10 day running mean periodic updates) 310515 050615 200615 280615, Russia 020615, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070615, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) also NMME and CFS2 graphics 080615 (max min 110615), UKMO seasonal 100515. BCC China 140615, Japan JMA 170615, International IMME 190615, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 190615, USA - IRI 190615, S Korea KMA APCC 250615, UKMO Contingency 300615.




Sites with no data
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014


CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


Updates for summer June July Aug 2015
CFS2 130615 - moves away from wetter signal in S of UK in August towards drier solutions.
NASA GMAO GSFC 070615 - TEMP NW below normal SE normal (July cooler than normal not just SE) PPN Normal Scotland slightly below (July slightly drier)
NCEP CFS2 050615 - TEMP near normal (June cooler than normal) PPN W Eire, Wales and W Scotland drier elsewhere normal (June drier than normal)
NCEP CFS2 310515 - TEMP near normal PPN near normal (June below balanced by Aug above)
Russia 020615 TEMP NW below normal SE normal. PPN below normal but N Ireland and Scotland normal



JUL AUG SEP 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 290615 - some consensus for near normal temps risk of below normal is perhaps highest in N/NW. CFS also lendin support to UK normal or below normal rain in this period but with month to month variability still hinting at AUG being wetter in places.
Summary - 140615 - some agreement for normal or above normal temps (except NASA). PPN bigger spread of solutions but NW/SE split Wetter/drier
Statistical data for El Nino mixed with reagrds PPN but implies mod probs for wetter then normal in N and E of UK, normal in Eire and some other western parts but mod probs below normal in some central areas - see IRI climate impacts.


UKMO Contingency 290615
TEMP: JULY : UKMO says output indistinguishable from climatology. However looking at the data plots normal or slightly below seems more likely however also stated is higher than normal pressure hence possible warmer days/cooler nights is a possiblity in S and E of UK.
SEASON: UKMO says output indistinguishable from climatology but with slightly enhanced probs for well above normal rather than well below normal also higher than normal pressure hence possible warmer days/cooler nights is a possiblity in S and E of UK. Looking at the data distribition fairly even spread two clusters one slightly above normal and one a little below few members near normal - so perhaps no dominant weather types?
PPN : JULY: UKMO says output suggest near or below normal rain. Looking at the distribution there are several members giving well below normal rain and the mode is below normal - overall below normal is more likely.
SEASON: UKMO says near or below normal rain and with slightly enhanced probs for well below normal (25% prob compared to 20% in climatology) but cautions above marked vairiabilty due to convective summer rain types. Looking at the data, however, there is a large cluster of output centred on above normal rain as well as a number of solutions being well below normal. The majority leans towards above normal rain with in the season as a whole.
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280615
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: Normal locally drier in W Scotland, W Wales, Cornwall and W Eire.
JUL normal but below normal Wales, Midlands, S of England, S Scotland and most of Eire except the N. AUG normal locally above in SW England , SE Eire, Highland Scotland. SEP normal but below in Scotland N Ireland N half Eire and locally W Wales and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200615 * back to wetter August in the S.
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL near normal perhaps cooler in NW Scotland and NE England AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL Below normal in W and central Eire and E of England but above in NE Scotland elsewhere normal AUG normal but above in S Eire, Midlands and S of England SEP normal but above in SE England and Highlands of Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130615 * change away from wetter August
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL below normal N Ireland N and E Scotland and NE England elsewhere normal
AUG normal
SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally drier W Scotland and W Eire
JUL normal but NE Scotland above and parts of W Scotland and most of Eire below normal
AUG normal but below normal in S Scotland, N Ireland N and W Eire N and NW England, W Midlands, Wales and SW England
SEP normal but above normal in far SE ngland SW Eire but below normal in N half of Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050615
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL Midlands above, NE England W Eire and W Scotland below elsewhere normal. AUG normal but above for central Scotland and most of Eire SEP normal but below in S England, S Wales and SE Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310515
TEMP: Season: near normal risk cooler NE England
JUL normal locally below in NE England AUG normal locally below in NE England SEP normal locally below in NE England
PPN: Season: near normal but Scotland, Eire and N Ireland above normal
JUL normal locally below in NW Scotland W Eire and Borders Scotland AUG normal but above in Scotland Eire, N Ireland, S Wales and S of England SEP normal but above in Scotland Eire N Ireland and S Midlands



Korea APCC - 250613
Temp: Season Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere near normal though weak signal
JUL Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal elsewhere near normal AUG W Eire and W Scotland below normal elsewhere near normal SEP W Eire and W Scotland below normal elsewhere near normal
PPN : Season just a hint at drier than normal in S and E perhaps also far NW.
JUL hint drier in SE England elsewhere no signal (similar probs normal/above/below) AUG no signal SEP hint at drier in E and perhaps far NW otherwise no signal


USA - IRI - 190615 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal probs range from 45% in SW UK and S Eire to 60% in N/NE Scotland
PPN : no signal similar probs below/normal/above


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 190615
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: slightly above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: far NW slightly below normal elsewhere near normal (+/-0.5)
PPN : near normal


JMA -170615
TEMP
SEASON slightly below normal
JUL slightly below normal AUG slightly below normal but S and SE England slightly above SEP England and E Wales slightly above elsewhere slightly below
PPN S and W slightly above normal N and E slightly below
SEASON
JUL slightly above normal AUG slightly below normal SEP N Ireland and Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above
PMSL
SEASON slightly above normal (weak WNW mean)
JUL slightly above normal (weak WNW mean) AUG above normal (WNW) SEP S Eire and SW UK slightly below elsewhere slightly above (WNW)




BCC China - 140615 -
TEMP: Season: most likely above normal but N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal
PPN: Season: mostly slightly below but in NW of UK and Eire near or slightly above normal



UKMO - 100615
TEMP: NW of UK may be below normal, Eire and N Ireland more likely normal, elsewhere above normal with a 40% prob of the SE of England being well above normal (lower probs elsewhere)
PPN : Slightly higher probs for below normal with a chance of well below although the NW of UK may be nearer normal. Low risk of N Wales, NW England, SW Scotland and E of N Ireland, E of Eire being well above.
PSML: More likely to be above than below and 40-55% probs of being well above model normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070615
TEMP: Season SE normal elsewehere below normal
JUL Far SE normal elsewhere below AUG England most of Wales and S Scotland normal, elsewhere below SEP below normal
PPN : Season normal slightly drier in S Wales and SW
JUL Eire and N England normal elsewhere slightly below AUG normal far N Scotland slightly above SEP England and S Eire normal elsewhere slightly below


Russia 020615
Temp: Eire N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal
PPN : below normal perhaps normal in N


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080615
TEMP: SEASON: 50-60% prob for S of UK to be above normal. Indication for NW to be below. Elsewhere no dominant probability.

PPN: SEASON: Below normal probs 40-50% - strongest signal across N of UK


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 190615

TEMP: SEASON: normal but far SE slightly above
JUL Eire and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal AUG normal but far SE England above SEP normal but far SE England above
PPN: SEASON: near normal
JUL slightly below normal AUG below normal in S and E elsewhere normal SEP slightly below normal but E of UK normal



CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN





NMME TEMP:




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080615 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:



Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080615 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server





AUG SEP OCT 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280615
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: Normal locally but above in S Eire, E Midlands and S of England.
AUG normal locally above in SW England , SE Eire, Highland Scotland. SEP normal but below in Scotland N Ireland N half Eire and locally W Wales and SW England OCT above normal all areas

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200615
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in S Eire, midlands and all of S England
AUG normal but above in S Eire, Midlands and S of England SEP normal but above in SE England and Highlands of Scotland OCT above normal but N half of Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130615
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally drier NE Scotland
AUG normal but below normal in S Scotland, N Ireland N and W Eire N and NW England, W Midlands, Wales and SW England SEP normal but above normal in far SE ngland SW Eire but below normal in N half of Scotland OCT normal but above in SW England and S and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050615
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but N half Scotland and S half England above
PPN: Season: normal SW may be below
AUG normal but above for central Scotland and most of Eire SEP normal but below in S England, S Wales and SE Eire OCT normal but locally above in far SW Eire and below in E Wales N Midlands and NE England also E Highland Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310515
TEMP: Season: near normal
AUG normal locally below in NE England SEP normal locally below in NE England OCT normal
PPN: Season: near normal but Scotland, N and E Eire and N Ireland above normal
AUG normal but above in Scotland Eire, N Ireland, S Wales and S of England SEP normal but above in Scotland Eire N Ireland and S Midlands OCT normal but below in N Ireland S Scotland and N England



USA - IRI - 190615 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal probs range from 40% in SW Eire to mostly 50% plus (N and E England 60%) and over 70% in N/NE Scotland
PPN : NW UK 40% prob below normal elsewhere no signal or similar probs below/normal/above


BCC China - 140615 -
TEMP: Season: most likely above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales near or slightly below normal elsewhere near or slightly above normal


UKMO - 100615
TEMP: Least likely areas for above normal W Eire and W Scotland. N Scotland may be nearer normal. Most areas more likely to be above normal with England and Wales 40-55% prob for well above normal.
PPN : Least likely to be above normal in central England and far SE. Chance the England, Wales and SE Scotland could be below or well below poffset but low risk of well above normal in many areas suggesting large spread of solutions?
PSML: N of Scotland uncertain may be near normal but elsewhere more likely to be above than below normal with 40-55% probs of being well above model normal across SW of UK and SW Eire


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070615
TEMP: Season normal but N Ireland/N Eire and N half Scotland below normal
AUG England most of Wales and S Scotland normal, elsewhere below SEP below normal OCT normal
PPN : Season normal slightly drier in S Wales and SW
AUG normal far N Scotland slightly above SEP England and S Eire normal elsewhere slightly below OCT Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere slightly below


Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary 210615 - Mild and increasingly wetter than normal.
Good agreement in normal or above normal temperatures from the various centres output. Precipitation output mostly suggests wetter than normal mainly in W. Some hints at drier but mostly in E of UK.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280615
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Midlands and SE England
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal
SEP normal but below in Scotland N Ireland N half Eire and locally W Wales and SW England OCT above normal all areas NOV above normal all areas

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200615
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal but above in Wales and S England
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland, SW and W Eire, Wales, Midlands and all of S England
SEP normal but above in SE England and Highlands of Scotland OCT above normal but N half of Scotland normal NOV normal but above in Eire, W Scotland, Wales, SW England, W Midlands and far SE England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130615
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above normal W and SW Scotland, S and W Eire and SW England
SEP normal but above normal in far SE England SW Eire but below normal in N half of Scotland OCT normal but above in SW England and S and W Scotland NOV normal but above normal for most of Eire, S and W Scotland N and NW England Wales and SW ENgland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050615
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but N half Scotland and S half England above NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal W Eire and W Scotland above
AUG normal but above for SEP normal but below in S England, S Wales and SE Eire OCT normal but locally above in far SW Eire and below in E Wales N Midlands and NE England also E Highland Scotland NOV mostly above normal locally normal NW Eire and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310515
TEMP: Season: near normal
SEP normal locally below in NE England OCT normal NOV normal but above in Wales and S half of England
PPN: Season: near normal but Scotland, Eire, S Wales and S third of England above normal
SEP normal but above in Scotland Eire N Ireland and S Midlands OCT normal but below in N Ireland S Scotland and N England NOV mostly above normal but normal in N Ireland and NE Scotland



USA - IRI - 190615 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal probs range from 60% in Eire, Wales and SW England to over 70% in juch of N and E of UK
PPN : In NW Scotland 45% prob below normal to 40% over most of Scotland and far N Eire/N Ireland elsewhere no signal or similar probs below/normal/above


BCC China - 140615 -
TEMP: Season: most likely slightly above normal
PPN: Season: near or slightly above normal but parts of England near or slightly below normal


UKMO - 100615
TEMP: Above or well above normal with highest probs 40-55% for well above normal across England and Wales but with Scotland and N Ireland more likely near normal
PPN : Far SE chance of below normal elsewhere normal but above more likely in Eire and N and W of UK. Chance of well above highest probs W Eire lowest in SE England
PSML: near normal - similar probs for above/below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070615
TEMP: Season normal
SEP below normal OCT normal NOV normal but Scotland above normal
PPN : Season Scotland normal elsewhere slightly drier
SEP England and S Eire normal elsewhere slightly below OCT Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere slightly below NOV below normal


OCT NOV DEC 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280615
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SW and S of England
OCT normal NOV above normal DEC normal
PPN: Season: Above normal but normal in N Ireland and N Scotland.
OCT above normal all areas NOV above normal all areas DEC normal but below normal in N Scotland and locally NW Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200615
TEMP: Season: normal but above in far SE England
OCT normal NOV normal but above in Wales and S England DEC normal but above in S Wales and S of England
PPN: Season: most areas above normal but NE Scotland normal
OCT above normal but N half of Scotland normal NOV normal but above in Eire, W Scotland, Wales, SW England, W Midlands and far SE England. DEC above normal but NE Scotland normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130615
TEMP: Season: normal
OCT normal. NOV normal. DEC normal but above normal in Wales and S half of England also southern two thirds of Eire
PPN: Season: normal but above normal W and S Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, Wales N and NW England, W Midlands and SW England.
OCT normal but above in SW England and S and W Scotland
NOV normal but above normal for most of Eire, S and W Scotland N and NW England Wales and SW ENgland
DEC above normal but locally normal in NE Scotland and E Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050615
TEMP: Season: normal but N half of Scotland Wales and S two thirds of England above normal
PPN: Season: normal but SW ad S Eire, SW Scotland and S of England above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310515
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal Eire, S half of Wales and S half of England above normal



KMA 250615
TEMP: trending to milder than normal by December
PPN: hints at wetter than normal in W during SEP and in S during DEC


USA - IRI - 190615 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: N half of Scotland 40 to 45% prob for above normal elsewhere similar probs of below/normal/above or no signal
PPN : N half of Scotland 40% prob of below normal to around 50% in N Isles elsewhere no signal or similar probs below/normal/above


BCC China - 140615 -
TEMP: Season: most likely slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070615
TEMP: Season normal but Scotland milder
OCT normal NOV normal but Scotland above normal DEC Eire, N Ireland and S England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN : Season Scotland normal elsewhere slightly drier
OCT Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere slightly below NOV below normal DEC normal but Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland and SW England slgihtly below


2015 NOV DEC 2016 JAN ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280615
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in N Eire and N Ireland
PPN: Season: Above normal but normal in N Ireland, E Eire, E Scotland and E England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200615
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in Wales and southern two thirds of England
PPN: Season: most areas above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130615
TEMP: Season: normal but Wales and S half of England above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in parts of N Eire, N Ireland NE Scotland and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050615
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but far NE Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310515
TEMP: Season: near normal but S and E Eire, Wales and England above normal
PPN: Season: near normal but Scotland, Eire, S Wales and S third of England above normal


BCC China - 140615 -
TEMP: Season: most likely slightly above normal
PPN: Season: near normal but below in far N


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070615
TEMP:
NOV normal but Scotland above normal DEC Eire, N Ireland and S England normal elsewhere above normal JAN ENgland and Wales above normal eslewhere normal
PPN :
NOV below normal DEC normal but Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland and SW England slgihtly below JAN above normal especially S Eire and SW Wales


Winter 2015 DEC 2016 JAN FEB ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary 210615 - overall some agreement for milder and wetter than normal although parts of NE Scotland and SE England could be drier than normal. Summary 140615 - BCC China supports mild but less wet.
Summary - 070615 - Mild start to winter. Wet and mild Jan 2016. Feb colder, with more snow in N - near normal elsewhere.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 280615 - change in rain distribution and areas of milder than normal
TEMP: Season: normal but Wales and southern half of England above normal
PPN: Season: Normal but Wales, Midlands and NW Scotland above normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 200615
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in W Scotland, much of Eire, Wales and southern two thirds of England
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland and parts of SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 130615
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal for NW Eire
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in parts of N Ireland NE and E Scotland and E England but not far SE

USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070615
TEMP:
DEC Eire, N Ireland and S England normal elsewhere above normal JAN England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal FEB Scotland and Eire below normal elsewhere normal
PPN :
DEC normal but Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland and SW England slightly below JAN above normal especially S Eire and SW Wales FEB normal but Scotland slightly below


BCC China - 140615 -
TEMP: Season: most likely above normal
PPN: Season: near or slightly above normal


CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN


ZOOMED area plotted using Panoply from CPC 1 deg GRIB CFS2 PPN anomaly dat - scale is indicative only



NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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