SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - May 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 290620 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

FINAL UPDATE
Brazil CPTEC, KMA and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF included in WMP graphics.
Graphics via WMO: Beijing and South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF not available.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010620, 060620, 110620, 150620, 210620) Temperature graphics (060620), E3 graphics (060620), Russia 310520, CanSips 010620, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080620, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080620, ECMWF monthly 080620, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080620, JAMSTEC 110620, UKMO seasonal 120620, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP) 130620, NCEP IMME 140620, Japan JMA 150620, USA - IRI 160620, BCC China 160620. APCC Korea 200620, UKMO Contingency 290620.
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, UKMO, Seoul, Washington, Toulouse, ECMWF, Tokyo 150620, CPTEC 160620, WMO multi ensemble 160620, .

International IMME is available again from NCEP

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



JUL AUG SEP

Summary - 170620 - Temperature: A few models have parts of the NW of the UK and the W Eire being colder than average for the three months but in the main it looks like to north / northwest of the UK also NW Eire could see nearer normal temperatures. The south and especially the SE of England is more likely to have above average values. Models do not agree which month might be warmer or colder than average.
Precipitation: Very mixed indication - in the WMO super ensemble the wet models cancel out the dry ones. There is a hint that parts of Scotland and the Midlands could see above average rain and a smaller risk that the south may also see higher rain totals for at least one month. It is not clear if there would be more wet days or just a higher total due to higher rain rates, given the number of solutions with drier than average this may be the case eg: more convective rainfall rather than persistent rainfall associated with fronts which is typical of summer months in any case.




There seems to be an cold bias in the North Sea in CFS which was incorrect last year. NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210620
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL normal but below in Cornwall, Wales, Eire, N Ireland, NW England, SW and W Scotland AUG normal locally below in SW Eire and Central Lowlands Scotland SEP above normal but normal in N and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150620
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal locally above in NW Scotland AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL Eire and N Ireland below normal, parts of S Midlands above elsewhere normal AUG normal SEP normal locally below in SW Eire NE Scotland Midlands Wales and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110620
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal but above in SE England SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL normal but below in Eire S Scotland N England and N Wales AUG normal but below in W Eire and above in Midlands SEP normal locally above in S Scotland and below in Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060620
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL mostly above normal AUG above normal but normal in Eire, N Ireland N England/S Scotland and NE Scotland SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands and parts of central southern England
JUL normal but above normal in central Eire, SW Midlands and SE Wales, below normal in NE England AUG normal but above in Midlands and central southern England below normnal in W Eire and N/NE Scotland SEP normal but above in N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in S and W Scotland, N Ireland, SW England and E Midlands. AUG normal but above in parts of Southern England SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in W Scotland and locally below in S Scotland, N England, N Ireland and N Wales AUG normal but below in W Eire Wales N England and S Scotland SEP mostly above normal




UKMO contingency - 290620
Jul: Above normal most likely. There are three main clusters: one below, one near normal and one above although overall about 70% of solutions are above normal
Season: Above normal most likely - chance of below normal around 18% UKMO says 10%.
PPN:
Jul: Above normal or well above normal slightly more likely than below normal. Solutions are split and well spread across the climate range. Could imply would not take much of a shift to be a drier or wetter period.
Season: Above normal slightly more likely than below. Clusters one near normal, one above and one below but overall more solutions are above normal. Tail end of solutions outside climate range both above and below normal.



Korea APCC - 200620
Temp: Season above normal
JUL no signal but SW England above AUG above normal SEP no signal
PPN : Season no signal
JUL no signal AUG no signal SEP no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL above normal AUG below normal SEP below normal



USA - IRI - 160620 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : Eire, N Ireland and E of England no signal elsewhere below average.



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Japan JMA 100620
Temp: Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN : Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PMSL: Season N below S above normal (WNW)
JUL below normal but far SW above (WNW) AUG Eire and N UK below elsewhere above (WNW) SEP N below S above normal (WNW)



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 130620
TEMP: normal but above in S
PPN: near normal
PMSL: normal but slightly above normal in the south of England
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: normal but below to NW
PPN: near normal
PMSL: normal but slightly above normal in the south of England
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: normal but above in Wales, SW England and W coastal Scotland
PPN: near normal
PMSL: normal but below in E and NE Scotland
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: normal but above in Midlands and S of England
PPN: normal but England and Wales below
PMSL: above normal especially in SW
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: normal but Scotland above
PMSL: N below normal elsewhere normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: N Ireland and Scotland below, S of England above elsewhere normal
PPN: mostly below normal
PMSL: above normal all areas but especially in and to the S and W
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: W Eire and Scotland below elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal



UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 120620 -
TEMP: above normal more likely than below
PPN : mostly no signal/near normal but above normal for SW England SE Eire N Ireland and much of Scotland
PSML: all but Scotland more likely above than below but does not preclude low pressure over the south



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: above in Eire, N Ireland W Scotland and W Wales elsewhere normal
JUL E England below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN : Season: Eire, N Ireland and NW half Scotland below elsewhere normal
JUL normal AUG normal locally below in W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire. SEP mostly below normal



Russia
Temp: Eire,, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal or no signal
PPN : no signal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 070620
TEMP: SEASON: Above normal (4/7). (GEM_NEMO and NCAR near normal).
PPN: SEASON: Below normal (4/7) (NASA GEOS above normal in N and W)

Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME ex NOAA date -
TEMP: SEASON: normal but East of England above normal
JUL normal AUG SW England, Ireland Scotland and Wales normal elsewhere above SEP England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN: SEASON: normal but locally below in W Eire
JUL normal but locally below in W Eire AUG normal but locally below in Eire and N Ireland SEP normal but locally below in W Eire


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


NASA anomaly .
200


ECMWF monthly
200


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa CFS2 mean height, anomaly 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


WMO June 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined. 11 models.
200


ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200

UKMO monthly
200

BOM monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly
200





2020 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210620
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG normal locally below in SW Eire and Central Lowlands Scotland SEP above normal but normal in N and E Scotland OCT normal but above in N half Scotland and Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150620
TEMP: S
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG normal SEP normal locally below in SW Eire NE Scotland Midlands Wales and SW England OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland and below in SW Eire, S Scotland N England Midlands and N Wales and Cornwall NOV normal but above in NW Scotland and below in S Eire and SW England DEC mostly above normnal locally normal in N Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire except W coastal area.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110620
TEMP:
AUG normal but above in SE England SEP normal OCT Scotland above elsewhree normal
PPN:
AUG normal but below in W Eire and above in Midlands SEP normal locally above in S Scotland and below in Cornwall OCT normal but above in NW Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060620
TEMP:
AUG above normal but normal in Eire, N Ireland and N England/S Scotland and NE Scotland SEP normal OCT Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN:
AUG normal but above in Midlands and central southern England below normnal in W Eire and N/NE Scotland SEP normal but above in N England OCT normal locally below in N Ireland N England NE Scotland and SE England. Above in NW Scotland .

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP:br> AUG normal but above in parts of Southern England SEP normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above
PPN:
AUG normal but below in W Eire Wales N England and S Scotland SEP mostly above normal OCT Eire normal elsewhere below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal SEP below normal OCT below normal



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal but Wales, Midlands and N England normal
PPN :
AUG normal locally below in W Scotland, N Ireland and Eire. SEP mostly below normal OCT N Scotland and S/SE England normal elsewhere below





2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 170620 - Temperatures near or above normal are most likely. Rainfall possibly below average in parts of the south but above in the north. Some longer dry periods likely but models do not agree during which month this is most likely.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210620
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal but above in S Eire Most of Scotland, Wales and England except N/NE
PPN: Season: normal but above S of England and W Scotland
SEP above normal but normal in N and E Scotland OCT normal but above in N half Scotland and Cornwall NOV normal but above in Midlands, W Eire and S and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150620
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire and SW England
SEP normal locally below in SW Eire NE Scotland Midlands Wales and SW England OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland and below in SW Eire, S Scotland N England Midlands and N Wales and Cornwall NOV normal but above in NW Scotland and below in S Eire and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110620
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV NW Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally above in S Scotland and below in Cornwall OCT normal but above in NW Scotland NOV normal but below in N Ireland, Eire Wales, SW Midlands and parts of SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060620
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT Scotland above normal elsewhere normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands and parts of central southern England
SEP normal but above in N England OCT normal locally below in N Ireland N England NE Scotland and SE England. Above in NW Scotland NOV normal but above in SW England and W Wales.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but NW Scotland above NOV mostly above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP mostly above normal OCT Eire normal elsewhere below normal NOV W Eire, NE Scotland and SE England normal, elsewhere above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN:
SEP below normal OCT below normal NOV below normal



Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 130620
TEMP: normal but England and Wales above
PPN: normal
PMSL: normal but slightly above normal in the south of England
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: normal
PPN: England and Wales normal elsewhere above
PMSL: normal but slightly above normal in the SE of England
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: mostly below normal
PPN: normal
PMSL: above normal especially in NW
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN: normal but Eire below
PMSL: above normal especially in S but Scotland normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: normal but Eire above
PPN: NW Ireland and N Scotland above, SW England below elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal but Scotland above
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere normal
PMSL: above normal all areas
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: SW England and SW WAles above elsewhere normal
PMSL: below normal


UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 120620 -
TEMP: near or above normal
PPN : mostly no signal but SW England more likely below than above
PSML: more likely above than below



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 110620
Temp: Season: Eire and SW UK below normal. NE Scotland above normal
PPN : Season: N above. S below



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal but Wales, Midlands and N England normal NOV above normal
PPN : Season: normal
SEP mostly below normal OCT N Scotland and S/SE England normal elsewhere below NOV N above elsewhere normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 0760620
TEMP: SEASON: above normal 4/7 (GEM and NCAR near normal)
PPN: SEASON: normal or below but locally above in NW Scotland


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME ex NOAA date -
TEMP: SEASON: normal but England and Wales above
PPN: SEASON: normal


NASA anomaly
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN17 TN12 TN13

TN18 TN15 TN16

WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.

Probability combined. 10 models.
200




2020 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210620
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV normal but above in S Eire Most of Scotland, Wales and England except N/NE DEC S England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
PPN:
OCT normal but above in N half Scotland and Cornwall NOV normal but above in Midlands, W Eire and S and W Scotland DEC above normal but normal in NE Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150620
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland and below in SW Eire, S Scotland N England Midlands and N Wales and Cornwall NOV normal but above in NW Scotland and below in S Eire and SW England DEC mostly above normnal locally normal in N Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire except W coastal area.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110620
TEMP:
OCT Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV NW Scotland above elsewhere normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT normal but above in NW Scotland NOV normal but below in N Ireland, Eire Wales, SW Midlands and parts of SW England DEC Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060620
TEMP: Season: normal but above in W Scotland, parts of Midlands and SE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: normal but above in W and S Scotland Wales and most of England except SW and NE.
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV below normal DEC above normal



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
OCT above normal but Wales, Midlands and N England normal NOV above normal DEC normal
PPN :
OCT N Scotland and S/SE England normal elsewhere below NOV N above elsewhere normal DEC W Eire and NW Scotland above elsewhere normal





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210620
TEMP: Season: normal but above in England and Wales
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands and E England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150620
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: NE Scotland, Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110620
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: Eire N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060620
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in Eire, N Ireland and NE Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but England and Wales above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010620
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV below normal DEC above normal JAN far S below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC normal JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV N above elsewhere normal DEC W Eire and NW Scotland above elsewhere normal JAN N half and SE England above elsewhere normal





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary - 170620 - reasonable agreement for above average temperatures, but not all of the period with periods closer to normal. Precipitation uncertain porbably above average in NW and near normal elsewhere but with risk of an above normal period in Jan or Feb in southern parts too.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210620
TEMP: Season: normal but England and Wales above
PPN: Season: normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110620
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland and N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB below normal
PPN:
DEC above normal JAN far S below elsewhere above FEB below



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 110620
Temp: Season: Far SE above, elsewhere mostly below especially in NW
PPN : Season: England normal, elsewhere mostly above but far NW Scotland may be below.



CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
DEC normal JAN above normal FEB normal
PPN : Season: normal but NW above
DEC W Eire and NW Scotland above elsewhere normal JAN N half and SE England above elsewhere normal FEB E England and W Eire normal elsewhere below



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

NASA anomaly .
200




2021 JAN FEB MAR


CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB normal MAR normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
JAN N half and SE England above elsewhere normal FEB E England and W Eire normal elsewhere below MAR normal locally above in SW Wales and NW Eire



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB below normal MAR W below E above
PPN:
JAN far S below elsewhere above FEB below MAR above normal





2021 FEB MAR APR


CanSIPS 010620
TEMP:
FEB normal MAR normal but England and Wales above APR Scotland England and Wales above elsewhere normal
PPN :
FEB E England and W Eire normal elsewhere below MAR normal locally above in SW Wales and NW Eire APR mostly below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
FEB below normal MAR W below E above APR below normal
PPN:
FEB below MAR above normal APR Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewehere above





2021 MAR APR MAY



Summary - 170620 - No stromng signals but possbily near normal temperature and rainfall.

CanSIPS 010620
TEMP: Season: S Scotland, England and Wales above elsewhere normal
MAR normal but England and Wales above APR Scotland England and Wales above elsewhere normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season: normal
MAR normal locally above in SW Wales and NW Eire APR mostly below normal MAY N Ireland above elsewhere mostly normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
MAR W below E above APR below normal MAY W below E above
PPN:
MAR above normal APR Eire. N Ireland and Scotland below elsewehere above MAY below normal






2021 APR MAY JUN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 160620 -
TEMP:
APR below normal MAY W below E above JUN below but NE Scotland above
PPN:
APR Eire. N Ireland and Scotland below elsewehere above MAY below normal JUN above normal




NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

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