SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - May 2019 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 010719(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

FINAL DATA
Graphics via WMO: all available.

Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010619 080619 140619 250619 ) Temperature graphics (140619) E3 graphics (140619), CanSips 310519, Russia 030619, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070619, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080619, NMME and CFS2 graphics 090619, UKMO seasonal 120619, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 120619. International IMME 150619, BCC China 150619, JAMSTEC 150619, Japan JMA 150619, USA - IRI 150619, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC) 150619, KMA 150619, Korea APCC 250619, UKMO Contingency 010719
Graphics via WMO: DWD, CMC, BoM, Moscow, Seoul 120619, CPTEC, UKMO, Washington, Pretoria, Tokyo, ECMWF, Beijing 150619. Toulouse 180619. WMO multi ensemble 180619 (now including Toulouse).
ECMWF monthly graphic 160619
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 JUL AUG SEP

Summary - 180619 - Slightly above normal temperature for the season (roughly 50% above 31% normal 19% below normal) and possibly each month. Rainfall above normal most likely (roughly 50% above, 28% normal, 22% below normal). No agreement between models for any month being drier and multi model ensembles trend to similar probs for above, normal or below normal. CFS2 has indicated drier August and September but no real consistency. Small signal for north being wetter and south drier or nearer normal.



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 -250619
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season:
JUL normal locally above in SE Eire, Scotland and Midlands AUG normal locally above in Eire SW England and W Scotlanbd SEP above normal but normal in N Scotland, N Ireland and S Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140619
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Wales, W Midlands and SW England
JUL normal but above in NE England/SE Scotland parts of N Ireland. Locally below in SW Eire AUG N Ireland N half Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere below SEP Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080619
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal but above in S of England
PPN: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal but below in SW Eire, W Scotland, Wales, Midlands and all S of England SEP normal but above in SW England and much of Scotland except the SE

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020619
TEMP: Season: Wales and S England above elsewhere normal
JUL above normal AUG normal but above in SW England SEP normal but above in SW England
PPN: Season: normal
JUL below normal but NE Scotland normal AUG normal SEP S and E normal elsewhere above normal




UKMO contingency - 010719 (data 260619)
TEMP:
July: Above average most likely 70/30 split warmer/colder. Median solution about half a degree warmer than average
Season: Above average most likely 80/20 split warmer/colder. Median solution about half a degree warmer than average.
PPN:
July: Above average slightly more likely than below (60/40) but significant cluster at just below average.
Season: Above average just more likely than below (65/45) but strong cluster at 30mm above normal for season.




Korea APCC - 250619
Temp: Season N and E above normal S and W no signal
JUL no signal AUG far N above elsewhere no signal SEP N and E above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN : Season N and W above normal elsewhere no signal
JUL England no signal elsewhere above AUG Eire and N Ireland above elsewhere no signal SEP no signal



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 150619 - .
Temp: Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN : Season near normal
JUL near normal AUG near normal SEP below normal
PMSL: Season near normal but above in NW
JUL near normal AUG near normal SEP above normal especially in the NW

Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Japan JMA 150619
Temp: Season Above normal
JUL Above normal AUG Above normal SEP Above normal
PPN : Season Below normal
JUL Above normal AUG Above normal SEP Below normal
PMSL: Season Above normal (W)
JUL S Above normal N below (slack NW) AUG N below S above (WNW) SEP Above normal (WSW)



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal
PPN : no signal



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France). Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 150619
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: S and N above normal central areas no signal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: above normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: no signal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: no signal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: no signal but N of Uk above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: no signal but NW Uk above normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: N no signal S above
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal but N above normal
PMSL: above normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal
PPN: mosly no signal
PMSL: NW above normal elsewhere no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP:
JUL W below E above AUG above SEP above
PPN::
JUL N above S below AUG N above S below SEP below normal



UKMO - Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels
UKMO - 121019
TEMP: above normal, slightly enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : N above normal with slightly enhanced probs for well above normal. Elsewhere no signal but slightly enhhanced probs for well below normal in SW Eire, Wales and SW England
PSML: No signal or normal but above normal in S. Slightly enhanced chance of below normal in NE UK.



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 121019
Temp: near normal
PPN : S Eire and SW UK normal elsewhere above normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : S above normal N normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060617
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal but Scotland above and Eire, Midlands, Wales and SW England below AUG above normal SEP Eire below elsewhere above normal



Russia 030619
Temp: mostly near normal but Eire and SW UK above normal
PPN : Eire, N Ireland, Wales, N and W England above normal elsewhere no signal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
JUL SW UK and Eire normal elsewhere above AUG SW UK and Eire normal elsewhere above SEP normal
PPN :
JUL normal but Eire above AUG above normal but normal in NW Scotland, Eire Wales and SW England SEP Eire, SE and SW England normal elsewhere above




11 April 2019 - Due to availablibity of more EU area seasonal maps, the global area graphics will no longer be presented on this web site and verification pages from April 2019, unless requested. UK map areas will be expaned to EU area.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080619
TEMP: Season: 4/7 models above normal 3/7 normal, NNME above normal
PPN rate: Season: near normal, similar probs for above/normal/below.



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150619
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: Season - normal




EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200

ECMWF monthly 150619
200


NASA anomaly 050519.
200

SW ENGLAND ONLY :
Summary of 3 month data data from WMO at low resolution.
WMO multi ensemble 160619
TEMP no signal PPN no signal

ECMWF 150619
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
DWD 120619
TEMP no signal PPN no signal
CMC 120619
TEMP below normal PPN above normal
BoM 120619
TEMP W above E below PPN normal
Russia 120619
TEMP W above E below PPN normal
Brazil 150619
TEMP normal PPN above normal
UKMO 150619
TEMP above normal PPN no signal
Seoul 150619
TEMP above normal PPN E below elsewhere no signal
Pretoria 150619
TEMP below normal PPN above normal
Tokyo 150619
TEMP Normal PPN normal
Toulouse 180619
TEMP above normal PPN below normal
Beijing 150619
TEMP no signal PPN normal
Washington 150619
TEMP above normal PPN normal



WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability of anomaly - Toulouse missing br> 200

DWD monthly 120619
200

BOM monthly 120619
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly 150619
200

Moscow monthly 120619
200

Canada monthly 100519
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly 150619
200

UKMO monthly 150619
200

SEOUL monthly 150619
200

Washington monthly 150619
200

Pretoria monthly 150619
200

Tokyo monthly 150619
200

Beijing monthly 150619
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO 150619
200

Toulouse monthly 180619
200



2019 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 -250619
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG normal locally above in Eire SW England and W Scotland SEP above normal but normal in N Scotland, N Ireland and S Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140619
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT Wales Midlands N England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: below normal but normal in Eire N half of Scotland and SE England
AUG N Ireland N half Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere below SEP Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere below OCT normal but below in N and NW Scotland Wales and Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080619
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal but above in S of England OCT normal but above in Eire, N Ireland Scotland NW England Wales SW and SE England
PPN: Season:
AUG normal but below in SW Eire, W Scotland, Wales Midland and all S of England SEP normal but above in SW England and much of Scotland except the SE OCT below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020619
TEMP:
AUG normal but above in SW England SEP normal but above in SW England OCT normal but Scotland above
PPN:
AUG normal SEP S and E normal elsewhere above normal OCT Scotland below, S Eire Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
AUG above SEP above OCT above
PPN: Season:
AUG N above S below SEP below normal OCT England and Wales below elsewhere above




UKMO - 121019
TEMP: above normal or normal
PPN : S Eire and S of UK below normal, N above normal
PSML: No signal in N elsewhere above normal with slightly enhanced chance of above normal except in N



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060617
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP above normal OCT N above S normal
PPN :
AUG above normal SEP Eire below elsewhere above normal OCT Eire N Ireland W and S Scotland above elsewhere below normal



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
AUG SW UK and Eire normal elsewhere above SEP normal OCT N above S normal
PPN :
AUG above normal but normal in NW Scotland, Eire Wales and SW England SEP Eire, SE and SW England normal elsewhere above OCT East normal elsewhere below





2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - Above normal temperature for the season, monthly September nearer normal October and especially November above normal. Rainfall (unreliable) mixed indications monthly but overall suggestion of normal or above in N and normal or below in S. November strongest signal for above normal rainfall generally which may make season total above normal.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


USA - NCEP CFS2 -250619
TEMP: Season: normal but above in N Scotland
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales above elsewhere normal
SEP above normal but normal in N Scotland, N Ireland and S Eire OCT S above N normal NOV normal locally above in N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140619
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland S and SE England
SEP normal OCT Wales Midlands N England normal elsewhere above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP Eire and N Scotland normal elsewhere below OCT normal but below in N and NW Scotland Wales and Midlands NOV NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080619
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP normal but above in S of England OCT normal but above in Eire, N Ireland Scotland NW England Wales SW and SE England NOV all areas above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal but above in SW England and much of Scotland except the SE OCT below normal NOV normal but above in Wales SW England and W Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020619
TEMP: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
SEP normal but above in SW England OCT normal but Scotland above NOV above normal but S Eire normal
PPN: Season: normal but Wales and Cornwall above
SEP S and E normal elsewhere above normal OCT Scotland below, S Eire Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal NOV normal



JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150619
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP:
SEP above OCT above NOV above
PPN:
SEP below normal OCT England and Wales below elsewhere above NOV N above S below




UKMO - 121019
TEMP: above normal or well above normal
PPN : S Eire and S of UK below normal, N above normal elsewhere no signal
PSML: Mostly no signal but chance of above normal in Eire, Wales and Midlands



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080619
TEMP: season : all models above normal, NMME above normal
PPN rate: near or above normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150619
TEMP: season - above normal
PPN rate: Season - normal



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200



2019 OCT NOV DEC




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250619
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV above normal DEC normal but far N Scotland and NW Eire above
PPN:
OCT S above N normal NOV normal locally above in N England DEC normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140619
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT Wales Midlands N England normal elsewhere above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire
OCT normal but below in N and NW Scotland Wales and Midlands NOV BE Scotland normal elsewhere above DEC above normal but normal in N half Scotland W of Eire and central S England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080619
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020619
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
PPN : Season: normal but below in SW Scotland N Ireland and NW Eire




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT above NOV above DEC above
PPN:
OCT England and Wales below elsewhere above NOV N above S below DEC above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060617
TEMP:
OCT N above S normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT Eire N Ireland W and S Scotland above elsewhere below normal NOV above normal DEC above normal



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
OCT N above S normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT East normal elsewhere below NOV E England normal elsewhere above normal DEC N UK and N Eire above elsewhere normal





2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN




USA - NCEP CFS2 -250619
TEMP: Season: above normal by N Ireland S Eire and S of England normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140619
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire W Scotland and W Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080619
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020619
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: normal but SW Eire below




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP:
NOV above DEC above JAN above
PPN:
NOV N above S below DEC above JAN above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060617
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN :
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN Eire, N Ireland and N half Scotland above, elsewhere below FEB above normal



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN normal
PPN :
NOV E England normal elsewhere above normal DEC N UK and N Eire above elsewhere normal JAN Eire, N Ireland, N England and S half Scotland below elsewhere normal





2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB

Summary - 180619 - Season: Temperature above normal for the season as a whole. Rainfall normal but above in W or SW UK and Eire.




USA - NCEP CFS2 -250619
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140619
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in Eire and N Ireland
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP:
DEC above JAN above FEB above
PPN:
DEC above JAN above FEB above





JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150619
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: above normal



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
DEC above normal JAN normal FEB above normal
PPN :
DEC N UK and N Eire above elsewhere normal JAN Eire, N Ireland, N England and S half Scotland below elsewhere normal FEB normal but below in S England and NW UK



EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P



2020 JAN FEB MAR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JAN above FEB above MAR above
PPN: Season:
JAN above FEB above MAR England and Wales below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB above normal MAR E Uk above elsewhere normal
PPN :
JAN Eire, N Ireland, N England and S half Scotland below elsewhere normal FEB normal but below in S England and NW UK MAR normal but below in SE England





2020 FEB MAR APR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP:
FEB above MAR above APR above
PPN:
FEB above MAR England and Wales below elsewhere above APR N below S above



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR E Uk above elsewhere normal APR above normal
PPN :
FEB normal but below in S England and NW UK MAR normal but below in SE England APR normal





2020 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 180619 - Above normal temperatures probable with a hint of normal or in south below normal rain for season



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP:
MAR above APR above MAY above
PPN:
MAR England and Wales below elsewhere above APR N below S above MAY below



CanSIPS 310519
TEMP:
MAR E Uk above elsewhere normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR normal but below in SE England APR normal MAY normal





2020 APR MAY JUN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150619 -
TEMP:
APR above MAY above JUN above
PPN:
APR N below S above MAY below JUN below





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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