SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - May 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 260618(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
Final update for June

Data sources available on date: USA - USA USA - NCEP CFS2 (020618 070618 160618 230618), Russia 010618, CanSips 310518, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060618, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080618, NMME and CFS2 graphics 080618 but zoomed area 090618, Japan JMA 100618, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 100618, BCC China 110618, UKMO seasonal 110618, International IMME 150618, ECMWF monthly 150618, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 150618, KMA 150618, JAMSTEC 150618, USA - IRI 180618, Korea APCC 260618, UKMO Contingency 260618 .
Data received after summary written.
NOT AVAILABLE: South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO


Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO intermodel comparison

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic ENSO CFS latest




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London


SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 JUL AUG SEP

Summary - 180618 -
Temperature: Most recent runs of CFS2 E3 multiday ensemble suggest near normal temperatures even slightly below normal which is a cooling trend from earier forecasts and may have some support from French output. These models tend to be a little cool so more likely UK temperatures will be above normal and in places well above normal, especially in the south, as shown by UKMO and to some extent EC.
Rainfall: For the season below normal seems likely but the north may be nearer normal. Some indication from CFS2 that August could be wetter especially in parts of the south but not much support for this detail.
Pressure mostly above normal especially over the N (may mean less low pressures for northern UK) .





UKMO contingency 260618
TEMP: Based on whole UK single value average forecast
July: Above normal more likely. Median value about 1 C above normal. 25% of output below normal 75% above. Looks like 3 cluster once near normal and two above normal
Season: opnly about 10% of solutions below normal. Above normal likely. Median value about 1 C above normal. One cluster near normal mostly above normal even more so than the forecast for July.
PPN:
July: Roughly 30/70 split above/below normal. Main cluster around 60mm for month UK average.
Season: Slightly below normal 40/60 split above/below normal. Two clusters beklow one above.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230618
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but above in Wales Devon Eire N Ireland and W Scotland AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but all S of England above
JUL Below normal but normak for Midlands and centgral S England/SE England AUG SE Eire and all S of England and S Midlands above normal W Scotland below elsewhere normal SEP above normal but Wales Midlands N England and NE Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160618
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUL mostly below normal AUG normal in N Scotland, N Ireland N Wales and N England elsewhere above normal SEP normal but below in SW England Wales and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070618
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal but Argyll, Midlands and S Wales above AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below W Eire
JUL normal but below in Cornwall Wales N England S Scotland S and E Eire and N Ireland AUG below in SW Eire but above in SE Eire Midlands Central and W Scotland elsewhere normal SEP normal locally above in Midlands and locally below in SW Eire and parts fo N Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020618
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL above normal but normal in E and S Scotland and N England AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below W Eire
JUL below normal locally normal in far N Scotland and Central S England AUG normal but above in Midlands and SE England and below in SW Eire and parts of W Scotland SEP mostly above normal




Korea APCC - 250618
Temp: Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal but no signal in W Eire SEP above normal
PPN : Season no signal but below normal in N
JUL no signal AUG no signal but below normal in SW England Wales N England and SE Scotland SEP no signal



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150618 - note the warmer solution s to some extent offset by cold French data
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal (possibly UQ England Wales and E Scotland) but most of Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN: N normal elsewhere below - parts of Westcountry in LQ
PMSL: above normal (chance UQ)
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: normal but SW England above, (chance UQ) but risk of NE UK in LQ
PPN: N normal elsewhere below and possibly LQ
PMSL: above normal (mod chance UQ)
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal (high probs UQ)
PPN: England Wales and E Scotland below elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal but above in N
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: SE UK normal elsewhere below and possibly LQ
PPN: N normal elsewhere below chance LQ in Eire and S UK.
PMSL: N normal elsewhere above normal chance UQ




ECMWF - monthly - 150618 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUL normal but Wales and SW and W of England above AUG normal locally above in Westcountry SEP normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG mostly below normal SEP mostly below normal
PMSL:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal



From APRIL 2017 output based on recalibrated NMME. Individual models and probs of non/exceedance for selectable values available from map room.
IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 180618 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: normal but SE England above
PPN : Normal but N England and S Scotland above with SW England below



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 150618 - .
TEMP: Season: above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN : Season normal but below in NW England and N Wales
JUL normal AUG normal SEP below normal
PMSL: Season: N above normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP above normal




UKMO - 110618 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: above normal with high probs for UQ
PPN : below normal but lower probs in N where near normal possible
PSML: above normal with 25-40% probs for UQ



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL England and Wales above elsewhere slightly below AUG Eire and N Ireland slightly below elsewhere above normal especially SE. SEP above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUL well below normal AUG N above normal S below normal SEP well below normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 100618
Temp: Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP Scotland above normal elsewhere below
PPN : Season above normal
JUL above normal AUG England above normal elsewhere below SEP above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (WNW)
JUL below normal (WNW) AUG above normal (WNW) SEP below normal (NW)



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 100618
Temp: Eire and NW Scotland normal elsewhere above
PPN : near normal
PMSL: above normal especially in N
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : normal but W Eire above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060618
TEMP:
JUL Above normal but NE Scotland below AUG near normal hint of below in N and above in SW SEP near normal perhaps below in N
PPN :
JUL above normal perhaps below in SW AUG below normal SEP below normal locally above in far N and far S



Russia 010618
Temp: Above normal
PPN : Mainly no signal but far N above and far S possibly below.



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
JUL Above normal locally normal W Eire AUG Above normal locally normal in W Eire SEP Above normal but normal in Eire and N Ireland
PPN :
JUL normal but above in NW and W Scotland, N Ireland and most of Eire (except SE) AUG below normal SEP Below in Eire, Wales and most of England elsewhere normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080618
TEMP: season - Above normal
PPN rate: season - no strong signal leans towards below normal in NW and normal elsewhere



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150618
TEMP: season - normal but hint of above in E UK in July.
PPN rate: season - normal but hint of below in W or NW Eire




Graphics 080618
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly NOT AVAILABLE 080618
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib (NOT AVAILABLE 080618)

200
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


ECMWF monthly 180618
200




2018 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230618
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG SE Eire and all S of England and S Midlands above normal W Scotland below elsewhere normal SEP above normal but Wales Midlands N England and NE Scotland normal OCT S Wales and all S England above, N Ireland and most of Sciotland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160618
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG normal in N Scotland, N Ireland N Wales and N England elsewhere above normal SEP normal but below in SW England Wales and N England OCT normal but above locally in S Devon and S Kent but below in Wales N England W Eire and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070618
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but N and W Scotland above
PPN:
AUG below in SW Eire but above in SE Eire Midlands Central and W Scotland elsewhere normal SEP normal locally above in Midlands and locally below in SW Eire and parts fo N Scotland OCT normal but below in N half Scotland and locally aove near Cork

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020618
TEMP:
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but above in N and W Scotland
PPN:
AUG normal but above in Midlands and SE England and below in SW Eire and parts of W Scotland SEP mostly above normal OCT above normal in S Eire, below in N Ireland Scotland and NW England elsewhere normal




ECMWF - monthly - 150618 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
AUG normal locally above in Westcountry SEP normal OCT normal
PPN:
AUG mostly below normal SEP mostly below normal OCT NW Scotlnd and E England below Eire, N Ireland W and S Scotland NW and W and SW England also Wales above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT NE normal elsewhere below normal




UKMO - 110618 -
TEMP: above normal with high probs (more than 40% but in N more than 55% prob) for UQ
PPN : below normal most likely 25-40% probs for LQ
PSML: above normal with 25-40% probs for UQ



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP:
AUG Eire and N Ireland slightly below elsewhere above normal especially SE. SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG N above normal S below normal SEP well below normal OCT N Scotland above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060618
TEMP:
AUG near normal hint of below in N and above in SW SEP near normal perhaps below in N OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG below normal SEP below normal locally above in far N and far S OCT mainly below normal



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
AUG Above normal locally normal in W Eire SEP Above normal but normal in Eire and N Ireland OCT Above normal but normal in Eire
PPN :
AUG below normal SEP Below in Eire, Wales and most of England elsewhere normal OCT N Scotland above. Below in S Eire Wales and most of England elsewhere normal





2018 SEP OCT NOV

Summary -180618- Temperature likely to be near or slightly above for the season trending above normal for November. Rainfall near normal probably starting below normal in September and ending above normal in November but uncertain as to when October starts to become wetter than average after a drier start.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230618
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV Eire, N Ireland and Wales normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal b ut above in SE Eire and all S of England perhaps S Wales.
SEP above normal but Wales Midlands N England and NE Scotland normal OCT S Wales and all S England above, N Ireland and most of Sciotland below elsewhere normal NOV NE Scotland below, SW Eire and parts fo S England abvoe elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160618
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Cornwall W Eire and N England
SEP normal but below in SW England Wales and N England OCT normal but above locally in S Devon and S Kent but below in Wales N England W Eire and E Scotland NOV normal but all S of England below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070618
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but N and W Scotland above NOV normal but NW Scotland and E Midlands above normal
PPN: Season: mostly near normal
SEP normal locally above in Midlands and locally below in SW Eire and parts fo N Scotland OCT normal but below in N half Scotland and locally aove near Cork NOV normal but above in far W Scotland and parts of SE Wales/Bristol Channel area

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020618
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but above in N and W Scotland NOV normal but abiove in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal
SEP mostly above normal OCT above normal in S Eire, below in N Ireland Scotland and NW England elsewhere normal NOV normal but below in central and W Scotland N Ireland Eire and parts of SW England



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150618 - note the warmer solution s to some extent offset by cold French data
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: no signal
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: above normal EIre, N Ireland and N Scotland no signal
PPN: N normal elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: N below SW above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: below in SW elsewhere no signal
METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: W below normal elsewhere no signal
PPN: W above elsewhere normal
PMSL: no signal




ECMWF - monthly - 150618 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal but England and Wales above normal
PPN:
SEP mostly below normal OCT NW Scotland and E England below Eire, N Ireland, W and S Scotland, NW, W and SW England also Wales above normal elsewhere normal NOV above normal locally normal or below in E Scotland and NE England
PMSL:
SEP above normal OCT NE normal elsewhere below normal NOV below normal especially in N



USA - IRI - 180618 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: normal
PPN : Normal but S Wales, S Midlands and northern parts of SW England above



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) -
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: near normal but locally above in N Scotland, W Wales and SW England and locally below SE England




UKMO - 110618 -
TEMP: above normal with more than 40% prob for UQ
PPN : below normal most likely 25-40% probs for LQ
PSML: S above normal with 25-40% probs for UQ elsewhere near normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
SEP well below normal OCT N Scotland above elsewhere below NOV SW England and NW Eire below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060618
TEMP:
SEP near normal perhaps below in N OCT above normal NOV near normal
PPN :
SEP below normal locally above in far N and far S OCT mainly below normal NOV above normal



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
Season: Above normal but Eire normal
SEP Above normal but normal in Eire and N Ireland OCT Above normal but normal in Eire NOV Above normal but normal in Eire and SW of UK
PPN :
Season: England, Wales and S Eire below elsewhere normal
SEP Below in Eire, Wales and most of England elsewhere normal OCT N Scotland above. Below in S Eire Wales and most of England elsewhere normal NOV NW Scotland above. E England below elsewhere normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080618
TEMP: season - near normal in W elsewhere above
PPN rate: season - no strong signal mainly near normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150618
TEMP: season - near normal
PPN rate: season - near normal



NMME Graphics 080618

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8

ECMWF monthly 120618
200



2018 OCT NOV DEC



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230618
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV Eire, N Ireland and Wales normal elsewhere above normal DEC normal
PPN:
OCT S Wales and all S England above, N Ireland and most of Sciotland below elsewhere normal NOV NE Scotland below, SW Eire and parts fo S England abvoe elsewhere normal DEC normal locally below in SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160618
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV normal DEC above normal but E Scotland N Ireland and Eire normal
PPN:
OCT normal but above locally in S Devon and S Kent but below in Wales N England W Eire and E Scotland NOV normal but all S of England below DEC normal but above in W Eire SW and W of England Wales NW England S and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070618
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: mostly near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020618
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland

PPN: Season: normal but below in N half of Scotland



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT N Scotland above elsewhere below NOV SW England and NW Eire below elsewhere above DEC S Eire S Wales and S England avbove elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060618
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV near normal DEC N/NW above elsewhere near normal
PPN :
OCT mainly below normal NOV above normal DEC N above S below



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
OCT Above normal but normal in Eire NOV Above normal but normal in Eire and SW of UK DEC normal locally above in Highland Scotland
PPN :
OCT N Scotland above. Below in S Eire Wales and most of England elsewhere normal NOV NW Scotland above. E England below elsewhere normal DEC mostly above normal





2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230618
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S Eire W and S Scotland and NW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160618
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and N Midlands
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW England and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070618
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and Midlands
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 020618
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in S and E Eire, SW England and parts of N Ireland

PPN: Season: normal but above in W Eire, Wales SW England and W Midlands



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV SW England and NW Eire below elsewhere above DEC S Eire S Wales and S England avbove elsewhere below JAN Eire above elsewhere below F



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060618
TEMP:
NOV near normal DEC N/NW above elsewhere near normal JAN near normal hint at below
PPN :
NOV above normal DEC N above S below JAN N beow S above



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
NOV Above normal but normal in Eire and SW of UK DEC normal locally above in Highland Scotland JAN Above normal but normal in Eire and SW England
PPN :
NOV NW Scotland above. E England below elsewhere normal DEC mostly above normal JAN mostly above normal





2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - 180618 - Limited data - A mild start to winter but tranding below normal temperatures in parts of the south in February. A wetter than normal winter despite possible below normal precipitation in the S in February. Below average snowfall, though slightly increased risk in February compared to normal.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230618
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but below for much of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160618
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW England and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - from NMME graphics 070618
TEMP: Season: above normal (strongest anomaly December then only slightly above)

PPN: Season: normal (January wetter in W and SW, Feb drier in NW Scotland otherwise no signals for departure from normal)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN: Season: above normal
DEC S Eire S Wales and S England avbove elsewhere below JAN Eire above elsewhere below FEB above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060618
TEMP:
DEC N/NW above elsewhere near normal JAN near normal hint at below FEB near or below normal
PPN :
DEC N above S below JAN N beow S above FEB N below S above



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
Season: normal
DEC normal locally above in Highland Scotland JAN Above normal but normal in Eire and SW England FEB below normal but normal in N half of Scotland
PPN :
Season: normal
DEC mostly above normal JAN mostly above normal FEB below normal





2019 JAN FEB MAR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP:
JAN above normal FEB above normal MAR above normal
PPN:
JAN Eire above elsewhere below FEB above normal MAR above normal w



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
JAN Above normal but normal in Eire and SW England FEB beow normal but normal in N half of Scotland MAR below normal
PPN :
JAN mostly above normal FEB below normal MAR SW England above, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere normal





2019 FEB MAR APR



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR England and Wales above normal elsewhere below



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
FEB beow normal but normal in N half of Scotland MAR below normal APR Above normal but normal in SW England, Eire and N Ireland
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR SW England above, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere normal APR normal but SW and S Cenrtal England below





2019 MAR APR MAY



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY Scotland below normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: N Scotland below elsewhere abive
MAR above normal APR England and Wales above normal elsewhere below MAY N England and Scotland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS 310518
TEMP:
Season: normal
MAR below normal APR Above normal but normal in SW England, Eire and N Ireland MAY normal
PPN :
Season: normal but below in NW Scotland
MAR SW England above, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below elsewhere normal APR normal but SW and S Cenrtal England below MAY normal





2019 APR MAY JUN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 110618 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY Scotland below normal elsewhere above JUN above normal
PPN:
APR England and Wales above normal elsewhere below MAY N England and Scotland below elsewhere above JUN N half Scotland above elsewhere below





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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