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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - May 2016 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 270616 (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


MAY Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates).

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010616 070616 120616 210616), CanSips 010616, Russia 010616. USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050616, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 060616, NMME and CFS2 graphics 060616, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 080616, UKMO seasonal 130616, International IMME 160616, BCC China 160616, Japan JMA 160616, USA - IRI 180616, Korea APCC 240616, UKMO Contingency 260616.
South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF delayed updated early July

India Met Office IMO stage 2 monsoon available. Currently slower progress N than normal.



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



Late summer 2016 JUL AUG SEP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 160616 No strong signals for the season apart from temperatures being above normal in most but not al of models, and probably less likely in September. Rainfall seems to suggest NW/SE split for season with NW wetter and SE drier. (Does not allow for local thundery outbreaks giving excess rainfall any single day as the systems are not capable of this detail - although Met Office extreme probs may give a hint).
Comment 130616 - Increased signal for August to be drier in CFS2 output.

For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th of the Month



Comment - IRI statistical rainfall probabilities not included as El Nino should be Neutral by summer 2016


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C)

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210616
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W and central Scotland and central Eire
JUL normal locally above in Highland Scotland but below in NW England E and SE England AUG normal but above in W Cornwall, central and SE Eire SW and central Scotland, N and NE England and most of Midlands. SEP normal but above in SW and W Scotland NW Eire, Midlands and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120616
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in Wales and SW Eire
JUL normal but SE Eire below and NW Scotland above AUG N Ireland, W Scotland and N Eire normal elsewhere below SEP normal locally below in far NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070616
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in W Eire, SE Eire Wales and SW England
JUL NW Scotland above, below in SW and SE Eire elsewhere normal AUG NW normal but NW Scotland above and below for SW Eire N England parts of Wales and SW England SEP normal but below in Eire, Wales Midlands and all S of England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010616
TEMP: Season: normal
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal
PPN: Season: normal but W Scotland above and below in SW England and SW Eire
JUL normal but W Scotland above and below normal for SE Scotland S and SW Eire S Wales, SW and S of England AUG Normal but W Scotland above and below in SW Eire, SW England, Wales, N and W Midlands SEP normal but above in N Ireland, Scotland and far N England



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - output delayed - original date 130616
TEMP: below normal
PPN: Eire N ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere similar probs above/normal/below

SCM 40 memeber ensemble original date 100616
TEMP: England and Wales below normal elsewhere similar probs above/normal/below
PPN: missing




UKMO contingency 270616 all UK no indication of regional variation apart from hints at pressure above normal in and to the SW and suggested more frequent west winds. Comment :This may result in the S and E of England being warmer and drier. ("Comments" are by Mike and not official)
TEMP:
July: UKMO near normal slightly more likely than above or below normal. Comment: A majority of solutions are within +/-0.8C of average and are in two clusters one above and one below with relatively few within above 0.2C of average. Hence a conclusion might be that above and below are similarly likely and that near normal is less likely.
JAS: UKMO slightly shift towards above normal with slightly ehanced probs for well above (25%) and lower for well below (15%). Comment: Like July above and below are similarly likely, with few solutions near normal. The distribution is, however, slightly shifted towards above normal at least as far as the extremes are concerned - more well above normals than well below normal spolutions from the ensembles.
PPN:
July: UKMO states above normal more likely. Comment altough there are more wetter than drier solutions the are three solutions that are well below normal and exceed the cimatic spread.
JAS: UKMO states above/below fairly balanced with probs for well above and well below normal at 20% (the standard value). Comment ensembles members hint at above normal more likely than below but this may not apply to the S and E of England if the pressure is above average?.



Korea APCC - 240416
Temp: Season slightly above normal
JUL 0.2 to 0.4C above normal (prob 40 to 50%) AUG 0.2 to 0.4C above normal (prob 40%) SEP 0.2 to 0.4C above normal (prob 40 to 50%)
PPN : Season NW UK above normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below
JUL near normal but chance of above normal in NW AUG near normal but no strong signal SEP near normal but chance of above normal in NW



USA - IRI - 180616 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal range from 40% in S Eire, SW England and SE England to over 70% in NW Scotland
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: Eire and far W UK slightly above elsewhere slightly below
PPN: Season: England and Wales normal, but N England/S Scotland below, elsewhere above


Japan JMA 160616 (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above normal
JUL slightly above normal AUG slightly above normal SEP slightly above normal
PPN : Season slightly above normal
JUL slightly above normal AUG slightly above normal SEP slightly above normal
PMSL: Season S and SW UK slightly above elsewhere slightly below normal (strong WNW)
JUL slightly below normal (WNW) AUG S and SW UK slightly above elsewhere slightly below normal (WNW) SEP N Scotland slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above especially the S (W weak in S)


UKMO - 130616 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Probs for above normal 60 to 80% (40 to 60% SE England) with enhanced probs for well above normal all areas but highest (40 to 55%) across Highland Scotland and most of Eire and SW of N Ireland. Normal or above most likely outcome.
PPN : Above average least likely in SE England and E Anglia. Normal or below normal most likely with enhanced probs for well below normal in S and E UK but well above in far NW Scotland.
PSML: above or well above normal especially across England and Wales


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 090616
Temp: normal but SW Scotland, Wales, NW England and Midlands below
PPN : Normal but N Ireland and W Scotland above
PMSL: SW Eire and SW UK slightly above elsewhere slightly below
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal locally below in Wales W Midlands NW England and W Scotland
PPN : normal locally above in SE England and N Ireland


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050616
TEMP: Season SW slightly above elsewhere above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP slightly above normal but SE England above normal
PPN : Season near normal
JUL normal AUG normal locally above in Scotland SEP normal but NW Scotland slightly above


Russia 010616
Temp: no signal/near normal (similar probs above/normal/below) but E England above normal
PPN : no signal (similar probs above/normal/below) locally above normal in N Scotland


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
JUL normal but SE England above AUG Wales and southern two thirds of England above elsewhere normal SEP normal but SE England above
PPN :
JUL S Wales and S two thirds of England normal elsewhere above AUG Eire, Wales and England below elsewhere normal SEP normal but N Scotland and NW Eire below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 060616
TEMP: Slightly above normal - chance that NE England/SE Scotland may be near normal
PPN: Scotland and N Ireland above normal far SE England below normal elsewhere normal


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 160616
TEMP: slightly above normal. July S normal N above, Aug above Sep above.

PPN: near normal (August below normal SW Eire and SW England perhaps also NE England - July and Sep normal)



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly




200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib





AUG SEP OCT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210616
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Scotland, central Eire and most of England
AUG normal but above in W Cornwall, central and SE Eire SW and central Scotland, N and NE England and most of Midlands. SEP normal but above in SW and W Scotland NW Eire, Midlands and SE England OCT normal locally below in SW Eire bu above in Wales and England (except the N of England)

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120616
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but above in NW Scotland and W Eire
PPN: Season: normal but below in SW Eire parts of Wales and SW England
AUG N Ireland, W Scotland and N Eire normal elsewhere below SEP normal locally below in far NW Scotland OCT NW Scotland above below in S Eire and Cornwall elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070616
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
AUG NW normal but NW Scotland above and below for SW Eire N England parts of Wales and SW England SEP normal but below in Eire, Wales Midlands and all S of England OCT normal but above in W Eire NW England and most of Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010616
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal but Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W and Central Scotland
AUG Normal but W Scotland above and below in SW Eire, SW England, Wales, N and W Midlands SEP normal but above in N Ireland, Scotland and far N England OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland and SW Eire



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - output delayed - original date 130616
TEMP: Scotland above normal elsewhere below normal
PPN: Eire, N ireland below normal, England and Wales above Scotland similar probs above/normal/below

SCM 40 memeber ensemble original date 100616
TEMP: below normal
PPN: Scotland below normal SW Eire above elsewhere similar probs above/normal/below



USA - IRI - 180616 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal mostly over 70% but 60^ in S and 40% in SW Eire
PPN : below normal in NW Scotland elsewhere no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: Slightly above but England (except far W) below
PPN: Season: below normal but N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above


UKMO - 130616
TEMP: Above normal more likely, possibly well above in Eire and W Scotland/NW England
PPN : N Eire, N Ireland, N Wales and W Scotland above normal 60 to 80% prob with enhanced chance of well above normal. Hint that E England may be below normal
PSML: normal or above, above more likely in S


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050616
TEMP: Season slightly above
AUG above normal SEP slightly above normal but SE England above normal OCT near normal locally below in Midlands and S England but slightly above in NE/E England
PPN : Season normal but Scotland slightly above
AUG normal locally above in Scotland SEP normal but NW Scotland slightly above OCT slightly above but normal in S


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
AUG Wales and southern two thirds of England above elsewhere normal SEP normal but SE England above OCT normal
PPN :
AUG Eire, Wales and England below elsewhere normal SEP normal but N Scotland and NW Eire below OCT normal




Autumn 2016 SEP OCT NOV -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - Main theme seems to be a mild Autumn with above normal rainfall across the NW half of UK. Temps nearer normal in October and above normal in November. September may have nearer normal rainfall but with October possibly the wettest across the NW half of UK and perhaps all of UK. In the SE half normal or below normal rainfall seems most likely which fits with the statistical probabilities for a La Nina event.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk
IRI Statistical data for potential La Nina affect on UK PPN

IRI climate impacts.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210616
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal but NW Scotland above
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands and S England
SEP normal but above in SW and W Scotland NW Eire, Midlands and SE England OCT normal locally below in SW Eire bu above in Wales and England (except the N of England) NOV normal but below in N Scotland and above in SW and S/SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120616
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
SEP normal OCT normal but above in NW Scotland and W Eire NOV E Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal
SEP normal locally below in far NW Scotland OCT NW Scotland above below in S Eire and Cornwall elsewhere normal NOV normal locally below in SE Eire Cornwall and central S England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070616
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and Central Lowlands
SEP normal OCT above normal NOV normal but NW Scotland and SE England above
PPN: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
SEP normal but below in Eire, Wales Midlands and all S of England OCT normal but above in W Eire NW England and most of Scotland NOV normal but above in ales, Midlands and all S England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010616
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal but Scotland above normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
SEP normal but above in N Ireland, Scotland and far N England OCT normal locally above in NW Scotland and SW Eire NOV normal but below in Scotland, N Ireland and W Eire



USA - IRI - 180616 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: above normal over 70% all areas
PPN : below normal in NW Scotland elsewhere no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: England below elsewhere above
PPN: Season: below normal but N Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above


UKMO - 130616 - points to a mild Autumn, wet and possibly windy across the N/NW.
TEMP: above normal most likely in all areas but with the S of England and SW Eire slightly higher probs of normal than elsewhere. Probs for well above normal over 40% and across Wales, W Midlands and NW England over 55%
PPN : above normal across NW UK and NW Eire 60 to 80% prob. Probs in S of England less clear, similar probs for above/normal/below. Slightly enhanced probs for well below normal and well above in SW UK. Elsewhere enhanced probs for well above normal.
PSML: In the S above or well above normal possible. Highest probs for well below across far NE Scotland.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050616
TEMP: Season slightly above normal
SEP slightly above normal but SE England above normal OCT near normal locally below in Midlands and S England but slightly above in NE/E England NOV above normal
PPN : Season normal but slightly above in W Scotland
SEP normal but NW Scotland slightly above OCT slightly above but normal in S NOV S Wales and S half England below, Scotland above elsewhere normal


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
SEP normal but SE England above OCT normal NOV normal
PPN :
SEP normal but N Scotland and NW Eire below OCT normal NOV N half Scotland normal elsewhere below



The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, IRI, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 060616
TEMP: above normal

PPN: Scotland and N Ireland above normal elsewhere normal


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 160616
TEMP: above normal (Sep Oct above Nov normal)

PPN: normal. Sep normal Oct Scotland above normal elsewhere normal Nov normal.



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly




200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib




2016 OCT NOV DEC -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210616
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
OCT normal NOV normal but NW Scotland above DEC normal
PPN: Season: normal localy below in W Highland but above in Midlands, SE England and S Devon
OCT normal locally below in SW Eire bu above in Wales and England (except the N of England) NOV normal ut below in N Scotland and above in SW and S/SE England DEC normal but below or well below in W and NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120616
TEMP: Season: above normal
OCT normal but above in NW Scotland and W Eire NOV E Scotland and NE England normal elsewhere above normal DEC above or well above normal (1 to 2C anomaly W Scotland, SE Eire, Wales and S England)
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland
OCT NW Scotland above below in S Eire and Cornwall elsewhere normal NOV normal locally below in SE Eire Cornwall and central S England DEC Above normal but SW and central S England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070616
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland, N Ireland, Eire, S Wales SW and S England
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010616
TEMP: Season: normal nut NW Scotland above
PPN: Season: normal



USA - IRI - 180616 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below but 40% orib above in SW England SE England SW Eire and N of Scotland
PPN : below normal in NW Scotland elsewhere no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: S and E England below elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal or slightly below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050616
TEMP: Season above normal
OCT near normal locally below in Midlands and S England but slightly above in NE/E England NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN : Season Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above normal elsewhere normal
OCT slightly above but normal in S NOV S Wales and S half England below, Scotland above elsewhere normal DEC N Ireland Scotland and N England above elsewhere normal.


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
OCT normal NOV normal DEC normal
PPN :
OCT normal NOV N half Scotland normal elsewhere below DEC above normal




2016 NOV DEC 2017 JAN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210616
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120616
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal in W and S Scotland, NW England, Wales, and W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070616
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but Wales, N and W England above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010616
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above across Midlands and E Anglia



BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland and N Eire above elsewhere below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050616
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
NOV S Wales and S half England below, Scotland above elsewhere normal DEC N Ireland Scotland and N England above elsewhere normal. JAN Slightly above but SE Scotland and NE England normal


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
NOV normal DEC normal JAN normal
PPN :
NOV N half Scotland normal elsewhere below DEC above normal JAN normal but N Scotland above and Wales and SW England below d




WINTER 2016 DEC 2017 JAN FEB -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - Mild winter, February nearer normal. Above normal rainfall but near normal in S and E of England. Near or below normal snowfall.
For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for potential La Nina affect on UK PPN

IRI climate impacts.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210616
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NW Scotland perhaos above in far SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120616
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above normal in W and S Scotland, NW England, Wales, N Ireland and Eire



BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: above normal (0.2 to 0.5)
PPN: Season: near or slightly above in N below in S


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050616
TEMP:
DEC above normal JAN Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal FEB Eire below normal E England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN :
DEC N Ireland Scotland and N England above elsewhere normal. JAN Slightly above but SE Scotland and NE England normal FEB slightly above


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN normal FEB normal but SE England above
PPN :
DEC above normal JAN normal but N Scotland above and Wales and SW England below FEB S Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal



CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



2017 JAN FEB MAR -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
JAN normal FEB normal but SE England above MAR normal
PPN :
JAN normal but N Scotland above and Wales and SW England below FEB S Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal MAR normal locally below in NW Scotland



BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: far N above normal elsewhere below



2017 FEB MAR APR -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
FEB normal but SE England above MAR normal APR normal M
PPN :
FEB S Scotland England and Wales below elsewhere normal MAR normal locally below in NW Scotland APR normal locally above in SE England and W Eire



BCC China - 160616 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: near or above normal



2017 MAR APR MAY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CanSIPS 010616
TEMP:
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal but N and E England and S Scotland above
PPN :
MAR normal locally below in NW Scotland APR normal locally above in SE England and W Eire MAY normal locally above in NW Scotland



NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


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