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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - JUNE 2015 data
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Summary of internationally available experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 270715. Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


July data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

ALL DATA in NMME max min missing..

Data sources available date: NCEP CFS2 010715 050715 120715 190715 250715, Russia 010715, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070715, US National Multi-Model Ensemble NMME 070715 and International Multi-Model Ensemble IMME 170715, UKMO seasonal 130715, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 130715, BCC China 170715, Japan JMA 180715, India Met Office (IMO) 200715, USA - IRI 200715, Korea APCC 240715, UKMO Contingency 270515.





CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



AUG SEP OCT 2015 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 170715 - near or above normal temps except perhaps in N where normal to slightly below is possible. PPN near or below normal especially in S and early in period. Some reasonable signals for drier Aug and part Sept in S but trending to wetter especially in NW later.

Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - suggest normal or below normal PPN perhaps above in NE England - see IRI climate impacts.


Mean of 40 runs over preceeding 10 days


UKMO contingency 270515 Pressure expected to be above normal in S of Uk.
TEMP:
AUGUST: Below normal. Comment - Probs roughly 30% above normal 60% below.
SEASON: Large uncertainy - above normal possible with slightly enhanced probs for well above. Comment - very slightly more model runs above normal than below normal
PPN:
AUGUST: Below normal. Comment - Probs roughly 60% for below normal.
SEASON: Below normal with enhanced probs for well below normal. Comment - Probs roughly 20% near normal 55% below normal and 25% above normal.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250715
TEMP: Season: normal locally below in NE England
AUG below normal all areas SEP normal locally below in NE England OCT normal but Wales and S England above
PPN: Season: normal but Scotland above normal
AUG Scotland and N Ireland above normal SW England and S Wales below elsehere normal SEP below normal but Scotland and E England normal OCT above normal but SE England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190715
TEMP: Season: normal but NE England, E and NE Scotland cooler
AUG below normal but normal in SW England and S Wales SEP normal but cooler in Scotland N Ireland and NE England OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but drier in SW Eire, Wales and SW England
AUG N Scotland, NE England, E Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere below normal SEP above normal but Wales, Eire and N Ireland normal OCT normal but locally below in Wales and S England also far N Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120715
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal locally cooler in N and E Scotland and NE England SEP normal OCT normal
PPN: Season: normal but Wales and SW England below normal
AUG NE Scotland ormal elsewhere below normal SEP normal but far N Scotland Wales and SW England below normal OCT above normal but SE England NE Scotland and N Ireland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050715
TEMP: Season: near normal
AUG near normal locally below in NE SEP near normal OCT near normal
AUG near normal for Central and N Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire elsewhere below normal SEP below normal but normal for SE Eire and E of England OCT above normal all areas

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010715
TEMP: Season: normal
AUG normal SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal especially in S DEC normal
PPN: Season: normal
AUG NW Scotland above normal S of England and S Wales below elsewhere normal SEP Scotland, N Ireland, N half Eire and SW England below normal elsewhere normal OCT above normal but W and NW Eire normal NOV above normal DEC NE Scotland below S Wales and S England above elsewhere normal



Korea APCC - 240715
Temp: Season near normal but the NW of UK below normal
AUG normal but cooler in NW SEP normal but cooler in NW OCT no signal/normal
PPN : Season S/SE below normal elsewhere no sig probs
AUG England and Wales below normal elsewhere no signal SEP no signal hint at S and E England below normal OCT no signal


USA - IRI - 180715 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Prob for above normal ranges from 40% in S Eire to mostly 45 to 50% abd over 60% in N Scotland For all of UK and Eire slightly enhanced probs for well above normal temps.
PPN : no indication of departure from normal probs for above/normal/below


IMO - 200715 - model normal
TEMP: Season: near or slightly below normal in S but below normal elsewhere
AUG near normal in S of England and S of Eire elsewhere below SEP S of England near normal elsewhere below OCT below normal
PPN: Season: N Ireland, England and Wales slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above
AUG below normal in N Ireland, W coasts Scotland, far S Scotland, England and Wales above in much of Eire and remainder of Scotland SEP Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere above OCT below normal especially across NW parts of UK and Eire NOV slightly below normal but far SW slightly above



Japan JMA 150715
Temp: Season England and Wales slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above
AUG slightly below normal but S of England slightly above SEP England and Wales slightly above elsewhere slightly below OCT slightly above
PPN : Season slightly below normal
AUG slightly below normal SEP slightly below but slightly above near W coasts and over Eire OCT slighly below except far SW slightly above
PMSL: Season slightly above normal (W)
AUG above normal / ridge in S (W) SEP slightly above (W) OCT below normal (SW)


BCC China - 170715
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales hint at below normal elsewhere slightly above


UKMO - 130715
TEMP: Prob of above normal 60-80% in S Eire and S of UK 20 o 40% in N. More likely to be below normal in N and above in S with enhanced probs for well above in S and well below in the far N of Scotland.
PPN : Eire, Wales and S half of England more likely to be below normal and perhaps well below normal. The N near normal most likely.
PSML: Above normal pressure most likely especially Eire, Wales and Central England which could be well above normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - 130715- two outputs schemes
Temp: Slightly below normal (0.5 to 1C below) but S of England normal
PPN : near normal perhaps slightly below in W/SW
PMSL: slightly above normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: slightly above normal
PPN : near normal perhaps slightly below in W/SW


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070715
TEMP: Season Eire, N Ireland and W coasts Scotland below normal elsewhere near normal
AUG Below normal but normal for Wales SW England W Midlands and W Highlands SEP Below normal for SW England, Eire, N Ireland, central and Scotland elsewhere normal OCT normal but below in W and NW Eire and locally W coast Scotland
PPN : Season near normal hint at above in NW
AUG near normal but slightly above in W Eire and slightly below in N Scotland and E of England SEP near normal but below in Central and S Scotland, N Ireland and SW England but above in far N Scotland OCT normal but above in western parts of UK and W Eire


Russia 010715
TEMP: Below normal for N Ireland, NW Eire and W Scotland elsewhere normal
PPN: Some indication for below normal across the NW and E, elsewhere little indication but tending towards below normal


The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - BAMS article describing the project (Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070715
TEMP: SEASON: mod probs below normal in NW and above in SE

PPN: SEASON: mod probs below normal in N and W Scotland, most of Eire and parts fo S of England


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170715

TEMP: SEASON: normal but SE England above normal (hint at cooler in NW)
AUG: S and SE above, far NW cooler elsewhere normal SEP: normal but SE England above normal OCT: normal but SW and SE England above normal
PPN: SEASON: near normal
AUG: below normal SEP: normal but far NW below OCT: near normal hint at above in NW




Graphics 070715
CFS2 MAX MIN





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN not available 170715

NMME TEMP:




Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp mean anomaly 080715 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server

NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:



Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS means Precip anomaly (ignore scale) 080715 data from NOAA NCEP CPC server



Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary - 200715 - recent CFS2 hints at less wet October in overall wetter period.
Summary - 130715 - UKMO data supports move to milder and wetter types.
Summary - 080715 - data so far suggests a wetter and milder than normal period for a good part of the Autumn (but not all) associated with strong mobility and enhanced jet flows.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250715
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal locally below in NE England OCT normal but Wales and S England above NOV normal
PPN: Season: Above normal in Eire, N Ireland, Scotland and N England elsewhere normal
SEP below normal but Scotland and E England normal OCT above normal but SE England normal NOV above normnal but N Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190715
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal but cooler in Scotland N Ireland and NE England OCT normal NOV normal
PPN: Season: above normal
SEP above normal but Wales, Eire and N Ireland normal OCT normal but locally below in Wales and S England also far N Scotland NOV above normal especlly in S

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120715
TEMP: Season: normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV normal but S England above
PPN: Season: above normal but N Scotland and SE England normal
SEP normal but far N Scotland Wales and SW England below normal OCT above normal but SE England NE Scotland and N Ireland normal NOV above normal but Highland Scotland normal and far N Scotland below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050715
TEMP: Season: near normal
SEP near normal OCT near normal NOV above normal all areas
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in N Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire
SEP below normal but normal for SE Eire and E of England OCT above normal all areas NOV above normal but NE Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010715
TEMP: Season: S Scotland, England and Wales also S Eire above elsewhere normal
SEP normal OCT normal NOV above normal especially in S
PPN: Season: nS Scotland, England, Wales and S Eire above elsewhere normal
SEP Scotland, N Ireland, N half Eire and SW England below normal elsewhere normal OCT above normal but W and NW Eire normal NOV above normal


Korea APCC - 240715
Temp:
SEP normal but cooler in NW OCT NOV no signal
PPN :
SEP no signal hint at S and E England below normal OCT no signal NOV no signal


USA - IRI - 180715 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: ABove normal 40% pros in S Eire and S/SW England and S/SW Wales to over 60% in N and E
PPN : Unusually strong signal for N of UK and N of Eire to be below normal. Probs over 50% in NW UK.


BCC China - 170715
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


UKMO - 130715
TEMP: England, Wales, S Scotland, Eire and parts of N Ireland 60-80% prob for above normal temps with enhanced probs in England, Wales and S Eire for well above normal. Elsewhere near normal more likely (a trend to milder in N)
PPN : Similar probs for above/normal/below but hinting at a move towards above in N with a chance of well above
PSML: Similar probs for above/normal/below but slighrtly enhanced probs for well above normal - given earlier months above normal later could be below normal especially as trand for next season (O N D) is below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070715
TEMP: Season Near normal hint below in far NW and above in far SE
SEP Below normal for SW England, Eire, N Ireland, central and Scotland elsewhere normal OCT normal but below in W and NW Eire and locally W coast Scotland NOV slightly above normal
PPN : Season near normal above in NW Scotland
SEP near normal but below in Central and S Scotland, N Ireland and SW England but above in far N Scotland OCT normal but above in western parts of UK and W Eire NOV Normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland



OCT NOV DEC 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 -250715
> TEMP: Season: normal but above in Wales and S England
OCT normal but Wales and S England above NOV normal DEC above normal but Scotland normal
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT above normal but SE England normal NOV above normnal but N Scotland normal DEC above normal especially SW Scotland SW England and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190715
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in westcountry
OCT normal NOV normal DEC N Scotland normal eslewhere above normal especially the S
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT normal but locally below in Wales and S England also far N Scotland NOV above normal especlly in S DEC above normal especlly in S

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120715
TEMP: Season: normal but Wales and S England above
OCT normal NOV normal but S England above DEC all areas above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland normal
OCT above normal but SE England NE Scotland and N Ireland normal NOV above normal but Highland Scotland normal and far N Scotland below DEC above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050715
TEMP: Season: above normal locally normal in N Scotland, N Ireland and N Eire
OCT near normal NOV above normal all areas DEC normal but above in England and Wales
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT above normal all areas NOV above normal but NE Scotland normal DEC normal but locally above in S and SW England, NW England, SW Scotland and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010715
TEMP: Season: Wales and S half of England above elsewhere normal
OCT normal NOV above normal especially in S DEC normal
PPN: Season: above normal
OCT above normal but W and NW Eire normal NOV above normal DEC NE Scotland below S Wales and S England above elsewhere normal


Korea APCC - 240715
Temp:
OCT NOV no signal DEC no signal but cooler in NW
PPN :
OCT no signal NOV no signal DEC no signal hint at above normal in S


USA - IRI - 180715 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Reduced probs for above normal 40% locally 60% in far N Scotland
PPN : no signal


BCC China - 170715
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal but Scotland normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


UKMO - 130715
TEMP: England and Wales 60-80% prob for above normal temps with enhanced probs for well above normal especially S of England. Eire, N Ireland and Scotland near normal more likely (a trend to milder in N)

PPN : Enhanced probs for above normal and well above normal with strongest signal for well above in W Scotland.
PSML: Below normal pressure more likely perhaps nearer normal in S


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070715
TEMP: Season near normal hint at above in S
OCT normal but below in W and NW Eire and locally W coast Scotland NOV slightly above normal DEC normal
PPN : Season near normal hint at above in NW
OCT normal but above in western parts of UK and W Eire NOV Normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland DEC normal but below in N Eire, N Ireland and N and W Scotland



NOV DEC 2015 JAN 2016 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250715
TEMP: Season: abive normal for Wales S half England and Eire elsewhere normal
NOV normal DEC above normal but Scotland normal JAN above normal strongest signal in S
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV above normnal but N Scotland normal DEC above normal especially SW Scotland SW England and SW Eire JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190715
TEMP: Season: normal but Wales and S half ENgland above normal
NOV normal DEC N Scotland normal eslewhere above normal especially the S JAN normal but above in Wales and S half England
PPN: Season: above normal
NOV above normal especlly in S DEC above normal especlly in S JAN above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120715
TEMP: Season: normal but above inSE Eire, Wales and S half England
NOV normal but S England above DEC all areas above normal JAN normal but S England and S Wales above
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal NE Scotland and E England
NOV above normal but Highland Scotland normal and far N Scotland below DEC above normal JAN above normal but E Scotland and E England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050715
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: near normal but above normal in Eire, SW and Lowland Scotland, NW England, Wales and SW ENgland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010715
TEMP: Season: above normal except N of Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN: Season: E of England and Scotland normal also E Eire elsewhere above normal


Korea APCC - 240715
Temp: season near normal/no signal
NOV no signal DEC no signal but cooler in NW JAN below normal
PPN : no signal hint above normal in S
NOV no signal DEC no signal hint at above normal in S JAN below normal but SE nearer normal


USA - IRI - 180715 -forecasts tends to be overly warm - note implied cooling trend in forecast
Temp: mostly no signal but 40 to 45% prob above normal in N Scotlnd and E England
PPN : hint at SW Eire being above n ormnal but mostly no signal.


BCC China - 170715
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal but Eire near normal and N Scotland below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070715
TEMP: Season normal but below in NW
NOV slightly above normal DEC normal JAN below normal
PPN : Season near normal but below in NW
NOV Normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland DEC normal but below in N Eire, N Ireland and N and W Scotland JAN normal but below in W Scotland, Eire, N Ireland, SW England and SW Wales.


Winter 2015 DEC 2016 JAN FEB ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - 210715 - Most likely wet and normal to mild early winter. Trend to drier and colder than normal but with a risk that the S and SE may continue with slightly above normal precipitation. This if correct might lead to enhanced snow risk in late Jan and for Feb for Wales and central England.

Comment - 080715 - sig differences between CFS milder and wetter solution and NASA colder and drier. Roughly half of the NMME memebers are colder/drier. Summary forecast will be added once other data is available later in July.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250715
TEMP: Season: above normal but Scotland and N Ireland/N Eire normal
PPN: SEasonn: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190715
TEMP: Season: normal but S England above normal
PPN: Season: above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120715
TEMP: Season: normal but above in SE Eire, Wales and S two thirds of England
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in E England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 050715
TEMP: Season: Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in E Scotland and E England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010715
TEMP: Season: S Eire WAles and S half of England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: Above normal locally W Scotland and W Eire and generally Wales and S of England elsewhere normal


BCC China - 170715
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: near normal but Eire and N Scotland drier


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070715
TEMP:
DEC normal JAN below normal FEB well below normal
PPN :
DEC normal but below in N Eire, N Ireland and N and W Scotland JAN normal but below in W Scotland, Eire, N Ireland, SW England and SW Wales. FEB below normal


Graphics 070715
CFS2 TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN awaited

NMME TEMP:




UK area Ploted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN mean anomaly 080715




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:





Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 170715
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: slightly below normal


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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