SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - December 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 280119(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

Final updates completed Not available South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (311218 060119 120119 160119 240119) Temperature graphics (120119) E3 graphics (120119, Russia 301218, CanSips 010119, ECMWF monthly 070119, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 080119, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 080119, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 100119, BCC China 100119, UKMO seasonal 110119, UKMO and WMO graphics 130119, KMA 140119, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC) 140119, WMO and UKMO monthly multi model graphics 150119, International IMME 160119, USA - IRI 160119, Japan JMA 170119, JAMSTEC 210119, Korea APCC , UKMO Contingency 280118.
Data received after summary written 170119.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2019 FEB MAR APR


Summary 170119: Temperature for the season probably near or slightly above normal but colder than normal start to February and near normal for March. Uncertain duration of colder types, could return to less cold by mid February but may be later. Milder April to follow.
Precicitation: increased snow risk in February especially for parts of England and Wales although the south of SW England not such a high risk for snow at low levels expcept early in February. Above normal precipitation is likely in the south early and later in the north with the north starting below normal.



NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240119
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB Southern and SE counties (but not Cornwall) normal elsewhere below normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: Far NW Scotland below. Above in Eire Wales S England and S and W Midlands. Elsewhere normal.
FEB NW Scotland below N Ireland and elsewhere in Scotland normal. Eire, England and Wales above normal MAR N England and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160119
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB below normal MAR normal APR N Ireland and W Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: NW Scotland below England, Wales and S Scotland above elsewhere normal
FEB S and E England above NW Eire and Scotland below elsehere normal MAR normal APR NE Scotland and SE England normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120119 - sig change for February from earlier data - individual runs colder from about the 3rd so 10 day means now reflecting the colder forecasts.
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB below normal MAR normal APR normal but above in SE
PPN: Season: NW Scotland below. ABove in SE Eire Wales and England elsewhere normal
FEB NW UK, N Ireland and NW Eire below S Wales, S Midland and S of England above elsewhere normal MAR mostly above but E of UK normal and N Scotland below APR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060119
TEMP: Season: normal but above in S
FEB near normal MAR Eire, N Ireland NE England Midlands and Wales normal elsewhere above normal APR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
FEB above normal but far N normal MAR N half Scotland normal otherwise above APR normal but above in NW Scotland and Kent

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311218
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR Eire, N Ireland W Scotand and N Wales normal elsewhere above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but Midlands and S England (not Cornwall) normal
FEB above normal MAR W Eire, N Ireland, Scotland and NW England above normal elsewhere normal APR SW Eire below, N half Scotland above elsewhere normal




UKMO contingency - 280119
TEMP:
February: UKMO "below normal more likely than above". Ensemble plots shifted toward below or well below normal roughly 70/30% colder/milders
Season: UKMO "below normal more likely than above". Reduced number of solutions showing above normal and more balanced than February. Might suggest return to nearer normal after colder February with the season only slightly below average.
PPN: UKMO suggest split solutions with S wwtter and N less so complicating the all UK solution.
February: UKMO "above average more likely than below". There are a number of solutions showning above normal BUT a larger number showing below normal.
Season: UKMO "above average more likely than below". 60/40% split in favour of wetter than average possibly much wetter than average



Korea APCC - 260119
Temp: Season above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season S half (UK and Eire) above, far N below elsewhere no signal
FEB N: no signal S: above MAR mainly no signal but SW above APR no signal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 170119
Temp: Season above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season N Scotland below elsewhere above normal
FEB NW Scotland below elsewhere above normal MAR N Scotland below elsewhere above normal APR above normal
PMSL: Season below normal (SW)
FEB well below normal (SW) MAR below normal (SW) APR SW below NE above (SLACK)




USA - IRI - 150119 based on NMME 070119 data -
Temp: no signal
PPN : SE England above but SW Scotland and Wales / NW England below elsewhere no signal



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France).
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 140119
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile). No signal = similar probs category for above/normal/below.
TEMP: no signal but some coastal areas above especially SW UK
PPN: N/NW Scotland below. Above in SE Eire, W Wales SW and SE England elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Scotland no signal elsewhere below normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: no signal
PPN: NW below, England and Wales above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: N no signal elsewhere below normal
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: no signal but Eire and N Ireland below normal
PPN: S and E England no signal elsewhere below normal
PMSL: no signal but far NW above and far SE below
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: no signal but some coastal areas above especially SW, SE coast UK, locally below in central Eire
PPN: above normal
PMSL: PMSL: Below normal highest probs over UK
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: no signal but some coastal areas above especially SW UK
PPN: no signal but above in S Eire coastal Wales and N Sea coasts
PMSL: Eire and N Scotland no signal elsewhere below normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal but central England and SE no siganl
PPN: Scotland below normal elsewhere no signal
PMSL: N above elsewhere no siganl



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.83deg×0.556deg, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25deg. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 140119 - .
TEMP: Season above normal
FEB S near normal elsewhere no signal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season NW normal or below SE above
FEB NW Scotland and SW Eire normal or below England and Wales above MAR NE Scotland above elsewhere mainly below APR NW normal most western area above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: Season N normal elsewhere no signal
FEB S below far N above elsewhere no signal MAR above normal APR no signal




UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
UKMO - 110119 - mainly based on tercile (Quintiles if appropriate UQ/LQ)
TEMP: S or SW England above Eire, N Wales and N UK mainly near normal chance of below in west. SW mod prob UQ
PPN : N or NW Scotland below elsewhere above more likely and possibly UQ
PSML: Below normal possibly LQ



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: mostly slightly above normal
FEB below normal MAR slightly above normal APR NW above SE below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 100119
TEMP:
FEB mostly above normal MAR N normal elsewhere above APR normal
PPN :
FEB S and E Scotland below elsewhere mostly above normal MAR SW Eire, W Scotlamd, SW UK and Midlands below elsewhere mostly above APR England, Wales and NE Scotland above elsewhere below



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes- 080119
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : near normal




ECMWF - monthly - 070119 -
TEMP:
FEB W Wales, SW S and SE England normal elsewhere below normal MAR normal APR mostly above normal but W Eire normal MAY normal but SE England above
PPN:
FEB NW Scotland below elsewherre above normal especially S England MAR NW Scotland and NW Eire normal or below elsewhere above normal APR NW England and most of Scotland above normal elsewhere normal MAY Scotland N Ireland N England and N Wales above, S Eire, S England below elsewhere normal



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
FEB normal but N and W above MAR Cornwall and SW Eire normal elsewhere above APR normal
PPN :
FEB below normal MAR S above normal elsewhere normal APR N Scotland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal



Russia 301218
Temp: S half UK and most of Eire above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN : no signal = similar probability for above/normal/below



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080119
TEMP: season : Above normal (only one model normal none below)
Two of the seven have Feb colder but no colder solutions in March
PPN rate: South above normal North below - limited signal most near normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 160119
TEMP: season - near normal
FEB N below S normal MAR normal but far S/SW above APR near normal but above in E England.

PPN rate: Season - near normal but above in S Eire and SW Uk
FEB far N Scotland below, S Eire and SW UK above elsewhere normal MAR normal APR normal.



NMME Graphics

CFS2 MAX and MIN not available
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN3 TN7 TN2

TN6 TN8 TN5

ECMWF monthly (caution new hindcast averaging period)
200
UKMO monthly source WMO
200
Multi model (not ECMWF) monthly source WMO
200


2019 MAR APR MAY

Summary - Sping 2019 170119: Consensus for above normal temperature for season, and tend to increasingly positive anomalies for May (less agreement). Rainfall, some indication for above normal rainfall, mainly in the south early in season then transferring north (lacks consistency between models.)



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 210119
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: Scotland below, S Eire and SW UK above normal elsewhere near normal




Korea APCC - 260119
Temp:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY no signal or low probs above normal
PPN :
MAR mainly no signal but SW above APR no signal MAY no signal



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240119
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAR N England and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal MAY normal but S Midlands and parts of S England below J

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160119
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in S of England
MAR normal APR N Ireland and W Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY N England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Eire, N England and S Scotland
MAR normal APR NE Scotland and SE England normal elsewhere above normal MAY E England below, SW Eire above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120119 - sig change for February from earlier data
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal but above in SE MAY normal but above in S Eire, S Wales and all S of England
PPN: Season: abve normal
MAR mostly above but E of UK normal and N Scotland below APR above normal MAY NE Scotland normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060119
TEMP:
MAR Eire, N Ireland NE England Midlands and Wales normal elsewhere above normal APR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal MAY N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
PPN:
MAR N half Scotland normal otherwise above APR normal but above in NW Scotland and Kent MAY normal but above in Eire, Central Scotland S Mildlands and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311218
TEMP: Season: Eire normal elsewhere above normal
MAR Eire, N Ireland W Scotand and N Wales normal elsewhere above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: normal but Scotland above normal
MAR W Eire, N Ireland, Scotland and NW England above normal elsewhere normal APR SW Eire below, N half Scotland above elsewhere normal MAY Scotland above normal elsewhere normal



Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble - 140119
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal. (UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal
PMSL: no signal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal but Eire, N Ireland W Scotland and parts of SE England no signal
PPN: N below S above
PMSL: no signal but below in S England
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal but Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland no signal
PPN: N and W below elsewhere no sigal
PMSL: mostly above normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: mostly above normal but Eire, N Ireland no signal
PPN: N above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: mostly no signal but locally above normal N Scotland N England and SW England
PPN: Eire NW and SW England above elsewhere no signal
PMSL: no signal locally below SE Eire and SW Wales
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: S no signal N below
PMSL: N above elsewhere no signal



UKMO - 110119 - mainly based on tercile (Quintiles if appropriate UQ/LQ)
TEMP: near normal chance of above in S/SW UK. SW mod prob UQ
PPN :normal or above normal, possibly UQ in Eire, N Ireland W Wales and Cornwall
PSML: N normal elsewhere below normal, possibly LQ




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: above normal but SW below
MAR slightly above normal APR NW above SE below MAY N above S below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 100119
TEMP:
MAR N normal elsewhere above APR normal MAY normal but lightly above in SW
PPN :
MAR SW Eire, W Scotlamd, SW UK and Midlands below elsewhere mostly above APR England, Wales and NE Scotland above elsewhere below MAY Eire, SW England and NW Scotland above elsewhere below




ECMWF - monthly - 070119 -
TEMP:
MAR normal APR mostly above normal but W Eire normal MAY normal but SE England above
PPN:
MAR NW Scotland and NW Eire normal or below elsewhere above normal APR NW England and most of Scotland above normal elsewhere normal MAY Scotland N Ireland N England and N Wales above, S Eire, S England below elsewhere normal



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
MAR Cornwall and SW Eire normal elsewhere above APR normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR S above normal elsewhere normal APR N Scotland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080119
TEMP: season: above normal only one model has normal
PPN rate: Mostly near normal but two models have south above and one has south below normal



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 160119
TEMP: season - near normal but E England above
PPN rate: Season - near normal







NMME and CFS2 Graphics 080119

CFS2 MAX and MIN not available
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib

200


CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


ECMWF monthly
200


2019 APR MAY JUN



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240119
TEMP:
APR normal MAY above normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN:
APR normal MAY normal but S Midlands and parts of S England below JUN normal but above in NW Scotland Midlands and all S of England JUL normnal but belowin Cornwall, Eire and S Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160119
TEMP:
APR N Ireland and W Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY N England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JUN normal
PPN:
APR NE Scotland and SE England normal elsewhere above normal MAY E England below, SW Eire above elsewhere normal JUN N Ireland, Eire, Wales and W Midlands normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120119 -
TEMP:
APR normal but above in SE MAY normal but above in S Eire, S Wales and all S of England JUN normal
PPN:
APR above normal MAY NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JUN Midlands, Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060119
TEMP:
APR Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal MAY N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR normal but above in NW Scotland and Kent MAY normal but above in Eire, Central Scotland S Mildlands and SW England JUN normal but above on NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311218
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR SW Eire below, N half Scotland above elsewhere normal MAY Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN normal



UKMO - 110119 - mainly based on tercile (Quintiles if appropriate UQ/LQ)
TEMP: above or well above normal but N Scotland normal or above. Possibly UQ but not N Ireland and Eire
PPN :normal or above normal, possibly UQ in Eire, N Ireland W Wales and Cornwall
PSML: below normal, possibly LQ




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN near normal
PPN:
APR NW above SE below MAY N above S below JUN S above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 100119
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal but lightly above in SW JUN above normal
PPN :
APR England, Wales and NE Scotland above elsewhere below MAY Eire, SW England and NW Scotland above elsewhere below JUN SE England and NW Scotland above elsewhere below



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
APR normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR N Scotland and Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal JUN below normal





2019 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240119
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB Southern adn SE counties (but not Cornwall) normal elsewhere belopw normal MAR normal APR normal MAY above normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season:
FEB NW Scotland below N Ireland and elsewhere in Scotland normal. Eire, England and Wales above normal MAR N England and Scotland normal elsewhere above normal APR normal MAY normal but S Midlands and parts of S England below JUN normal but above in NW Scotland Midlands and all S of England JUL normnal but belowin Cornwall, Eire and S Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160119
TEMP:
MAY N England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY E England below, SW Eire above elsewhere normal JUN N Ireland, Eire, Wales and W Midlands normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal locally below in SE Eire and W Cornwall.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120119 -
TEMP:
MAY normal but above in S Eire, S Wales and all S of England JUN normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY NE Scotland normal elsewhere above JUN Midlands, Eire and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal locally above in SW

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060119
TEMP: Season: above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Eire SW Scotland Cornwll and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311218
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN near normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY N above S below JUN S above elsewhere below JUL N above elsewhere below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 100119
TEMP:
MAY normal but lightly above in SW JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY Eire, SW England and NW Scotland above elsewhere below JUN SE England and NW Scotland above elsewhere below JUL NW Scotland below elsewhere above



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal JUN below normal JUL normal locally above in E





2019 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 170119: Temperature near or above normal with rainfall near normal but possibly below normal in June and above in August - little consistency in the month to month indication for rainfall



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240119
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in E Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160119
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal, locally above in Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120119 -
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Scotland above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060119
TEMP: Season: above normal but S Eire and NE England normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
JUN near normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
JUN S above elsewhere below JUL N above elsewhere below AUG below normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 100119
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN SE England and NW Scotland above elsewhere below JUL NW Scotland below elsewhere above AUG above normal but Central Scotland below



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG Wales SW England N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN :
JUN below normal JUL normal locally above in E AUG SW England normal elsewhere above normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080119
TEMP: season : above or well above normal high prob
PPN rate: mostly near normal probs favour below normal





NMME Graphics 080119

CFS2 MAX and MIN not available
TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P


2019 JUL AUG SEP


jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 210119
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240119
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 160119
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N Ireland and N Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW Eire and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120119 -
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in SW

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 311218
TEMP: Season: above normal but NE England normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL N above elsewhere below AUG below normal SEP above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 100119
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL NW Scotland below elsewhere above AUG above normal but Central Scotland below SEP above normal



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG Wales SW England N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal locally above in E AUG SW England normal elsewhere above normal SEP normal but SW Eire below





2019 AUG SEP OCT


CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
AUG Wales SW England N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above SEP above normal OCT normal but England and Wales above
PPN :
AUG SW England normal elsewhere above normal SEP normal but SW Eire below OCT normal but N half above





2019 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 170119 limited data : Temperature above normal for season but October near normal in north and more widely near normal in November. Rainfall a wetter start to Autumn but trending near normal and possibly drier mainly in the N and W.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: S below N above
SEP above normal OCT mostly below normal NOV E above elsewhere below



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT normal but England and Wales above NOV Eire, N Ireland and SW Uk normal elsewhere above
PPN :
SEP normal but SW Eire below OCT normal but N half above NOV normal but N and W below





2019 OCT NOV DEC



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT mostly below normal NOV E above elsewhere below DEC below



CanSIPS - 010119
TEMP:
OCT normal but England and Wales above NOV Eire, N Ireland and SW Uk normal elsewhere above DEC N Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
OCT normal but N half above NOV normal but N and W below DEC normal





2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100119 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV E above elsewhere below DEC below JAN below normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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