SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - December 2016 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 260117 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursdays. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4, NMME plot and CFS2 latest plot. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME ENS Mean ENSO Comparison
ENSO CFS latest


October Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
All data available. Final update 290117.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (050117 080117 110117 150117 230117 290117), USA - CanSips 010117, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070117, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), NMME and CFS2 graphics 090117, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 090117, UKMO seasonal 090117, BCC China 130117, Japan JMA 160117, International IMME 170116, USA - IRI 190117, Korea APCC 250117, Russia 260117, UKMO Contingency 300117, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF 300117.



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th





2017 FEB MAR APR


Comment - 250117 - CFS2 since above the 20th mean of 10 day output has jumped back to above normal rainfall with all area above normal temp.
Summary - 190117- Although the NASA output hints at the S or SW being colder in February most other available data suggests normal or above. All listed output (to date) indicates normal or above normal temperatures averaged over the three month period although there are hints that the S of the UK may be nearer normal and that the North is most likely to be above normal. PMSL is forecast to be above normal especially in the S of UK which leads to some suggestions that the S may be drier than normal, especially in February, but with the N/NW normal or above normal. Overall near normal precipitation is expected for the three month season. Month to month data has been unreliable of late but current output suggest March could be the wetter month for the W and S of UK and Eire and April for the N/NW of UK.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk


Model Output summary


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290117
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal APR normal locally above normal in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: above normal locally normal in NE Scotland
FEB NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR Eire, SW Scotland NW England Wales W Midlands S and SW England above normal, locally below normal in far N Scotland elsewhere normal APR locally above normal in NW Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230117
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland normnal elsewhere above normal
FEB above but in S well above normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: N half Scotland normal elsewhere above
FEB far N Scotland below other areas of N half Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR NW Scotland below SE Eire Wales SW England and W Midlands above elsewhere normal APR Scotland above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150117
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal locally above in N Scotland MAR normal but above in N Ireland N England and Scotland APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in NW Scotland
FEB below normal but normal in SE Eire, N England, S Midlands and S but not SE England MAR normal locally below N Wales N England W Scotland and far SE England APR Most of Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110117
TEMP: Season: normal but Scotland above
FEB Normal but Scotland above MAR above normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal
FEB NW Scotland above, England and Wales below elsewhere normal MAR normal locally below in NE Midlands APR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080117
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR SE England above normal elsewhere normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: normal
FEB normal but SE England below MAR normal but above inn Eire, S and SW Scotland and Cornwall APR Most of England apart from SW above normal elsewhere normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 (10 day means restarted 090117)

USA - NCEP CFS2 - data from Tropical Tidbits last 48 runs roughly averaged by eye data 2nd to 05th Jan 17
TEMP:
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN:
FEB SE third of UK normal elsewhere above MAR SE third of UK normal elsewhere above APR NW UK and NW Eire above elsewhere normal



UKMO contingency 300117
TEMP:
FEB: roughly at 60/40 split in favour of above normal tempersature. Note risk of sudden stratospheric warming facilitating the return of blocked drier/colder types later Feb is possible.
FEB MAR APR: roughly at 65/35 split in favour of above normal tempersature but distribution in slpit with large cluster above normal and a small cluster below normal and fewer solutions near normal
PPN:
FEB: Above average slightly more likely than below. Note risk of sudden stratospheric warming facilitating the return of blocked drier/colder types later Feb is possible.
FEB MAR APR: similar probs for above/normal/below perhaos just a hint of above normal which may reflect a wetter Feb with other months nearer normal?



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 300117
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal locally above in far SW and far NE


Russia (delayed 2650117)
Temp: prob above normal 50 to 60% highest in N. Below 50% prob in SE England.
PPN : Far north near normal. far SE England above normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below


Korea APCC - 250117
Temp: Season Above normal
FEB S England normal elsewhere above MAR above normal APR ABove normal
PPN : Season normal locally above in NW Eire
FEB normal but hint of below in S Devon MAR Scotland and N Ireland above elsewhere normal APR normal



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 190717 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal in S over 45% in N over 60%
PPN : No indication (similar probs for above/normal/below)


Japan JMA -160116 - (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above normal
FEB slightly above MAR slightly above APR slightly above
PPN : Season SW and S of England slightly below elsewhere slightly above
FEB SW and S of England slightly below elsewhere slightly above MAR slightly below APR Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above
PMSL: Season slightly above (WNW)
FEB Scotland slightly below elsewhere slightly above (W) MAR slightly above (W)APR SW England and SW Eire slightly below elsewhere slightly above (slack pattern W)



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN: Season: S England and S Wales below elsewhere above
FEB S below elsewhere low probs above MAR slightly above APR N slightly above elsewhere below



UKMO - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members)
UKMO - 090117 TEMP: Above normal most likely but for S Eire and SW perhaps S of England similar chance of near normal. Reduced probs for below normal. Probs for well above normal in the 40 to 55% range.
PPN : Probs for above average reduced across Wales and SW/S of UK but similar probs for normal or below normal across S half of Uk and Eire. Higher probs for well above normal in the N/NW of UK and NW Eire. Higher probs for well below across remainder of Eire and S Scotland southwards in UK. Summary NW more likely to be wetter and S/SE more likely to be drier than model normals.
PSML: Above or well above normal pressure on average over UK and Eire.


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 090117
Temp: Wales W Midlands and SW normal elsewhere above
PPN : Normal but NW UK above normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS) not available
Brazil PERSISTED sea temps (RAS) 090117
Temp: NW England and W Midlands normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN : normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070117
TEMP: Season Above normal but only slightly in SW
FEB S Wales and all S of England below far N Scotland above elsewhere normal MAR above normal APR above normal
PPN : Season normal
FEB N and NE normal elsewhere slightly below but SW England below MAR SE England below elsewhere slightly above but W Scotland well above APR normal but Eire and N Ireland slightly above


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.

CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
FEB above normal especially the S/SE MAR NW Normal elsewhere above APR mostly above but W Eire normal
PPN :
FEB SW Eire and SW and S England below normal, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal MAR normal but far SE above APR normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090117 - (based on recent runs output may not be mild enough).
TEMP: Season: All models showed above normal temperatures except NCAR CESM which was near normal

For month to month see images below.
PPN: Season: mixed signal mostly near normal but two above and two below normal, main signal above normal in N and W (includes Eire) perhaps below in SE England
200hPa: Enhanced Jet in February steering lows towards or to the NW of UK.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170117
TEMP: season - slightly above normal (0.25 to 0.5 anomaly)
FEB above normal especially in N MAR above normal APR only slightly above normal
PPN: season - near normal
FEB near normal MAR near normal but locally above in SW England APR near normal but above in W Eire and perhaps W Scotland



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




Spring 2017 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 190117 - Above normal temperature predicted for Spring and each month. Near or below normal rain suggested for S of UK. More areas may be drier in April. Wetter month for S and W March. Overall Spring drier in S and possibly wetter in N.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290117
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal APR normal locally above normal in NW Scotland MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in NE Scotland, SE England and E Eire.
MAR Eire, SW Scotland NW England Wales W Midlands S and SW England above normal, locally below normal in far N Scotland elsewhere normal APR locally above normal in NW Scotland elsewhere normal MAY above normal but locally normal in N Ireland and N and E Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230117
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAR NW Scotland below SE Eire Wales SW England and W Midlands above elsewhere normal APR Scotland above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150117
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in far NW Scotland
MAR normal but above in N Ireland N England and Scotland APR normal MAY normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in far NW Scotland
MAR normal locally below N Wales N England W Scotland and far SE England APR Most of Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal locally below in W Scotland and parts of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110117
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW Eire S Scotland and N England
MAR normal locally below in NE Midlands APR above normal MAY normal locally above in central Eire and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080117
TEMP: Season: Eire and NE England normal elsewhere above
MAR SE England above normal elsewhere normal APR above normal MAY Scotland and SE England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but S and W Eire above
MAR normal but above inn Eire, S and SW Scotland and Cornwall APR Most of England apart from SW above normal elsewhere normal MAY Eire and SW England above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - data from Tropical Tidbits last 48 runs roughly averaged by eye data 2nd to 05th Jan 17
TEMP: Season Above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY mostly normal locally above SE England and in far W.
PPN: Season N and NW above elsewhere normal
MAR SE third of UK normal elsewhere above APR NW UK and NW Eire above elsewhere normal MAY far NW normal elsewhere mostly above normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 300117
TEMP: England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal
PPN: Wakes nd SW England normal elsehere above normal


USA - IRI - 190717 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal, SW England over 40% elsewhere in S over 45% in but N over 70%
PPN : No indication (similar probs for above/normal/below)


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: Scotland above elsewhere mainly below
MAR slightly above APR N slightly above elsewhere below MAY below



UKMO - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members)
UKMO - 090117 TEMP: Above normal most likely although Eire and N Ireland have similar probs for near normal.
PPN : The North slightly higher probs for above or well above normal and the South slightly higher probs for below or well below normal
PSML: Above normal most likely perhaps slightly less so in the S and SW of UK and S Eire.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070117
TEMP: Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal but far SW and SE of England only slightly above
PPN : Season normal but Eire slightly above
MAR SE England below elsewhere slightly above but W Scotland well above APR normal but Eire and N Ireland slightly above MAY normal in Eire, N Ireland and far SE England and NE Scotland elsewhere below normal


CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
MAR NW Normal elsewhere above APR mostly above but W Eire normal MAY above normal especially in the East
PPN :
MAR normal but far SE above APR normal MAY normal locally below in NW England and S Scotland JUN below normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090117
TEMP: season - 60-70% prob for above normal temperatures

PPN: season - no strong signals but highest probs for above normal in W of UK also in Eire




Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 170117
TEMP: season - slightly above normal
MAR slightly above normal APR slightly above normal MAY slightly above normal
PPN rate: season - normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal



Graphics 090117
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2017 APR MAY JUN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290117
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal locally above normal in NW Scotland MAY normal JUN Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normnal elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal b ut above in central Scotland and Midlands
APR locally above normal in NW Scotland elsewhere normal MAY above normal but locally normal in N Ireland and N and E Eire JUN below normal in NW Scotland, N Ireland, N and W Eire, locally above in Midlands, elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230117
TEMP: Season: normal but Scotland above normal
APR normal MAY N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN normal but Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, W Wales and Cornwall above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in central lowlands of Scotland
APR Scotland above elsewhere normal MAY normal locally below in NE Eire and above in small area of E Midlands JUN Above normal in SE Eire S Scotland E Wales and most of England except the SE elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150117
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in far NW Scotland
APR normal MAY normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland JUN Above normal but normal in parts of NE and E England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in N Midlands
APR Most of Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal locally below in W Scotland and parts of Eire JUN normal locally above in W Cornwall SW and W Scotland and far W Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110117
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN S Eire, Midlands, N and E England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal but Midlands and NE England above
APR above normal MAY normal locally above in central Eire and NE England JUN normal locally below in N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080117
TEMP: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
APR above normal MAY Scotland and SE England above normal elsewhere normal JUN normal but above normal in N Ireland Scotland Midlands and SE England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands
APR Most of England apart from SW above normal elsewhere normal MAY Eire and SW England above elsewhere normal JUN normal but above in NW Scotland N and W Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - data from Tropical Tidbits last 48 runs roughly averaged by eye data 2nd to 05th Jan 17
TEMP: Above normal most likely but slightly lower probs in SW England and Eire. Significantly reduced probs of being below normal.
APR above normal MAY mostly normal locally above SE England and in far W. JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN:
APR NW UK and NW Eire above elsewhere normal MAY far NW normal elsewhere mostly above normal JUN below normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 300117
TEMP: W Eire above normal elsewhere normal
PPN: Scotland above elsewhere near normal


USA - IRI - 190717 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal, mostly over 70% prob.
PPN : No indication (similar probs for above/normal/below)


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN: Season: below
APR N slightly above elsewhere below MAY below JUN mixed mostly below but perhaps slightly above in Eire and S of England



UKMO - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009. 42 ensemble members)
UKMO - 090117 TEMP:
PPN : Increased probs for the N being above and the southern two thirds of UK and Eire being below normal.
PSML: above or well above normal more likely than below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070117
TEMP: Season slightly above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal but far SW and SE of England only slightly above JUN slightly above
PPN : Season normal
APR normal but Eire and N Ireland slightly above MAY normal in Eire, N Ireland and far SE England and NE Scotland elsewhere below normal JUN normal but Eire slightly above


CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
APR mostly above but W Eire normal MAY above normal especially in the East JUN above normal
PPN :
APR normal MAY normal locally below in NW England and S Scotland JUN below normal





2017 MAY JUN JUL


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290117
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normnal elsewhere normal JUL above normal in SW England Eire, N Ireland N and W Scotland elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands
MAY above normal but locally normal in N Ireland and N and E Eire JUN below normal in NW Scotland, N Ireland, N and W Eire, locally above in Midlands, elsewhere normal JUL normal locally above in far NW Scotland and locally below in NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230117
TEMP: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
MAY N half Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN normal but Eire, N Ireland, Scotland, W Wales and Cornwall above normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY normal locally below in NE Eire and above in small area of E Midlands JUN Above normal in SE Eire S Scotland E Wales and most of England except the SE elsewhere normal JUL normal but far NW Scotland above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150117
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland
MAY normal but above in Eire, N Ireland and Scotland JUN Above normal but normal in parts of NE and E England JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Central Lowland Scotland
MAY normal locally below in W Scotland and parts of Eire JUN normal locally above in W Cornwall SW and W Scotland and far W Eire JUL normal locally below in W Cornwall but above in N Wales NW England N Ireland N Eire and most of W half of Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110117
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN S Eire, Midlands, N and E England normal elsewhere above JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY normal locally above in central Eire and NE England JUN normal locally below in N Ireland JUL normal locally below in Cornwall but locally above in Midlands NW England S and E Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - data from Tropical Tidbits last 48 runs roughly averaged by eye data 2nd to 05th Jan 17
TEMP:
MAY mostly normal locally above SE England and in far W. JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL NE England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN:
MAY far NW normal elsewhere mostly above normal JUN below normal JUL Scotland and Parts of Midland England above elsewhere normal



USA - IRI - 190717 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal, SE England over 45% elsewhere in S over 50% in but in N and in W Eire over 70%
PPN : No indication (similar probs for above/normal/below)


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: below
MAY below JUN mixed mostly below but perhaps slightly above in Eire and S of England JUL N above but mostly below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070117
TEMP: Season slightly above
MAY above normal but far SW and SE of England only slightly above JUN slightly above JUL normal in N slightly above in S
PPN : Season normal
MAY normal in Eire, N Ireland and far SE England and NE Scotland elsewhere below normal JUN normal but Eire slightly above JUL normal locally slightly below in N Ireland, N Eire and N England


CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
MAY above normal especially in the East JUN above normal JUL above normal especially in SE
PPN :
MAY normal locally below in NW England and S Scotland JUN below normal JUL normal but below in Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland , S coasts and SE of England





2017 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 190117 - Warmer than average especially in England and especially for July. Near average but in S near or below average rainfall. August may see above average rainfall. Rainfall forecasts have been very poor lately.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in N Midlands

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150117
TEMP: Season: normal but above in W and N Eire and NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Eire, W half of Scotland and p[arts of Central Belt.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW and W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland and parts of W Midlands but below in SE Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - data from Tropical Tidbits last 48 runs roughly averaged by eye data 2nd to 05th Jan 17
TEMP: Season Above but NE England normal
JUN NE England normal elsewhere above normal JUL NE England normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal and well above in S of England
PPN: Season normal locally above in N Scotland and Midlands
JUN below normal JUL Scotland and Parts of Midland England above elsewhere normal AUG Scotland and SW England/SW Eire above elsewhere normal S



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: slightly above
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG far S and SW above elsewhere below
PPN: Season: England and Wales below elsewhere above
JUN mixed mostly below but perhaps slightly above in Eire and S of England JUL N above but mostly below AUG S Wales and S half of England below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070117
TEMP:
JUN slightly above JUL normal in N slightly above in S AUG slightly above
PPN :
JUN normal but Eire slightly above JUL normal locally slightly below in N Ireland, N Eire and N England AUG normal but England and Wales above


CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal especially in SE AUG above normal especially in SE
PPN :
JUN below normal JUL normal but below in Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland , S coasts and SE of England AUG normal but Eire above



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090117
TEMP: season - 50-60% prob for above normal temperatures

PPN: season - no strong signals, hint at drier in SW England and wetter in far N Scotland



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P



NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


2017 JUL AUG SEP


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 290117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in far NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 230117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Cornwall and SE Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150117
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in W and central Eire
PPN: Season: normal locally below in W Cornwall but above in W Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 110117
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - data from Tropical Tidbits last 48 runs roughly averaged by eye data 2nd to 05th Jan 17
TEMP:
JUL NE England normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal and well above in S of England SEP mostly normal locally NE England normal elsewhere above normal in NW Scotland and SE England
PPN:
JUL Scotland and Parts of Midland England above elsewhere normal AUG Scotland and SW England/SW Eire above elsewhere normal SEP NW Scotland above elsewhere normal or slightly below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: slightly above
JUL above normal AUG far S and SW above elsewhere below SEP NE and E above elsewhere below
PPN: Season: England and Wales below elsewhere above
JUL N above but mostly below AUG S Wales and S half of England below elsewhere above SEP SE Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 070117
TEMP:
JUL normal in N slightly above in S AUG slightly above SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal locally slightly below in N Ireland, N Eire and N England AUG normal but England and Wales above SEP normal but S Scotland, N England and N Wales below


CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
JUL above normal especially in SE AUG above normal especially in SE SEP above normal especially in SE
PPN :
JUL normal but below in Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland , S coasts and SE of England AUG normal but Eire above SEP N half Scotland normal elsewhere below normal





2017 AUG SEP OCT


USA - NCEP CFS2 - data from Tropical Tidbits last 48 runs roughly averaged by eye data 2nd to 05th Jan 17
TEMP:
AUG above normal and well above in S of England SEP mostly normal locally NE England normal elsewhere above normal in NW Scotland and SE England OCT NW Scotland above, Midlands and parts of SE below elsewhere normal
PPN:
AUG Scotland and SW England/SW Eire above elsewhere normal SEP NW Scotland above elsewhere normal or slightly below OCT NW Scotland above elsewhere slightly below



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: S and SW also far NE above elsewhere slightly below
AUG far S and SW above elsewhere below SEP NE and E above elsewhere below OCT slightly above
PPN: Season: Eire and N Scotland above elsewhere below
AUG S Wales and S half of England below elsewhere above SEP SE Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere above OCT below



CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
AUG above normal especially in SE SEP above normal especially in SE OCT above normal especially in SE
PPN :
AUG normal but Eire above SEP N half Scotland normal elsewhere below normal OCT normal but Eire, N Eire, W and SW Scotland, NW England and NW Wales above normal





2017 SEP OCT NOV


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: slightly above
SEP NE and E above elsewhere below OCT slightly above NOV above
PPN: Season: Eire and N Scotland above or normal elsewhere below
SEP SE Eire, England and Wales below elsewhere above OCT below NOV above



CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
SEP above normal especially in SE OCT above normal especially in SE NOV above or well above
PPN :
SEP N half Scotland normal elsewhere below normal OCT normal but Eire, N Eire, W and SW Scotland, NW England and NW Wales above normal NOV mostly normal locally below in NW UK.





2017 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: Slightly above but central England slightly below
OCT slightly above NOV above DEC coastal areas above elsewhere below
PPN: Season: below normal
OCT below NOV above DEC below



CanSIPS 010117
TEMP:
OCT above normal especially in SE NOV above or well above DEC above or well above
PPN :
OCT normal but Eire, N Eire, W and SW Scotland, NW England and NW Wales above normal NOV mostly normal locally below in NW UK. DEC normal locally above in far S of England.





2017 NOV DEC 2018 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 130117
TEMP: Season: slightly above
NOV above DEC coastal areas above elsewhere below JAN slightly above
PPN: Season: Scotland and N Ireland below elsewhere above normal
NOV above DEC below JAN 2018 far S above elsewhere below





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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