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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - December 2015 data

Summary of International experimental Seasonal Forecasts for UK and Eire for 1 and 3 month periods

Updated 260116 (ddmmyy). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Click for El NINO info


January 2016 final data from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES




Data sources available date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010116 080116 150116 250116), US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 070116, NMME and CFS2 graphics and UK zoomed graphics 070116, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110116, UKMO seasonal 111015, Japan JMA 110116, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 130116, International IMME 150116, BCC China 180116, USA - IRI 220116, Cansips 010116, Korea APCC 250116, UKMO Contingency 260116, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) 300116 dated 26th.

Russia not available but may be upated 1st month re run available 040216
India Met Office IMO not available.

CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



FEB MAR APR 2016 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary - 13Jan2016 - Unsettled period dominated by low pressure but with chance of some ridging mainly in or to the S/SW of UK early in the three month period but less likely later (based on 200hPa and PMSL anomalies). Fairly good agreement in the data so far for above normal temperatures, possibly well above normal for the three months. Hint that February might see the strongest positive anomalies and April the lowest. A risk that some northern or NW parts may be nearer normal. Precipitation above normal with a risk of well above normal. Less agreement about month to month detail and where wetter areas might be but April may be less likely to be above normal, some agreement for March above normal less clear for February. Snow risk lower than normal in the S but normal risk for northern hills.

For 1981-2010 average snow lying/snow falling days UKMO snow-in-the-uk

IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - main signal is for normal or above normal with strongest risk for above normal in parts of E Midlands/E Angia, NE England, N and E Scotland - see maps. Chance of parts of the SW of UK also Borders and W Eire being normal or drier.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250116
TEMP: Season: England and Wales above normal elsewhere normal
FEB above normal well above in S MAR normal perhaps above in far SE APR normal (+/-0.5 anomaly)
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB above or well above normal especially in W MAR SE Eire, England and Wales above normal. NW Scotland below normal elsewhere normal APR mostly above normal but N Ireland and N Eire normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150116
TEMP: Season: normal but SE England above
FEB above normal especially in S MAR near normal APR near normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland normal elsewhere above
FEB above normal for W and SW Scotland NW and SW England W Wales N Ireland and Eire, eslewhere normal MAR Below normal NW Scotland and NW Eire. Above normal E Scotland, most of England and Wales also SE Eire. Elsewhere normal APR above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080116
TEMP: Season: near normal but S and SE England above
FEB above normal especially in S MAR near normal APR near normal
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB E Midlands normal elsewhere above normal MAR Eire, N Ireland, N half Scotland and parts of E midlands normal elsewhere above normal APR above normal all areas

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010116
TEMP: Season: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland normal elsewhere above
FEB above normal MAR normal but far SE England above APR normal but far SE England above
PPN: Season: above normal
FEB above normal MAR slightly above normal APR normal but above normal for E of Eire, NW England and all but far SE Scotland



Russia 040216 - probably from late month rerun available 0402016
Temp: above normal
PPN : above normal


South African Weather Service (SAWS) ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble - 300116
TEMP: above normal 60 to 70 percentile (33 to 50% over the highlands)
PPN: E of Scotlnd and E of England 33 to 50 percentile above normal elsewhere near normal


UKMO contingency 260116 Suggestion of increased NW flows developing perhaps N or NE into March.
TEMP: Worries about a stratospheric warming event helping tip the balance towards colder types later Feb/early March. March suggested as the highest risk for below normal.
FEB: Above normal more likely. About 70% of solutions above normal with a good number in the well above normal rainge.
Season FMA: Below normal slightly more likely. Suggests some of the period well below normal assuming Feb is above normal. Output is only slightly below normal with more or less equal spread although UKMO suggest enhanced risk of a one in fice year type colder period.
PPN:
FEB: UKMO suggest above and below normal equally probable. Looking at the plots there are less members near normal and despite a similar number of plts above and below normal the main enhanced area is for well above normal precipitation.
Season FMA: UKMO suggest above and below normal equally probable, in fact the plots suggest than near normal is also an equal contender.



Korea APCC - 250116
Temp: Season above normal
FEB Eire and W Scotland near normal elsewhere above MAR above normal APR above norma
PPN : Season no signal or similar probs for above/normal/below but hint at below to the NW and above to the S/SE
FEB no signal or similar probs for above/normal/below MAR no signal or similar probs for above/normal/below APR no signal or similar probs for above/normal/below



USA - IRI - 220116 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Prob for above normal range from 45% over Eire and central southern England to 60% across the N and E of Scotland also NE and E of England. Enhanced probs for well above normal.
PPN : no signal or similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: above normal (0.2 to 0.5)
PPN: Season: near normal perhaps above in W Scotland and below in SW England also far N Scotland


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 130116
Temp: Above normal but near normal (+/-0.5C) for NW England W Scotland and N Ireland
PPN : Above normal and well above for W Scotland W Wales N Ireland and N half of Eire
PMSL: Below normal in N near or slightly below normal in S
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : S and W of UK slightly above normal. Eire, N Ireland, W Scotland and Cornwall well above elsewhere near normal


Japan JMA 110116 (June 2015. 51 members accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15days run 5days apart 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above normal
FEB slightly above normal MAR slightly above normal APR slightly below normal
PPN : Season slightly above normal
FEB Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere slightly below MAR slightly above normal APR slightly above normal
PMSL: Season slightly above normal ridge to SW (WNW 3 month mean)
FEB Above and well above normal in SW and Eire (WNW) MAR S slightly above normal N slightly below (WNW) APR below normal (weak NW)


UKMO - 110116 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Eire, N Ireland and Scotland most likely near normal. Elsewhere above normal. Lowest probs for below normal are in the S of England. Slightly enhanced probablity for well above normal except Eire and parts of Wales.
PPN : Above normal more likely in N Ireland, W Scotland, Wales, SW England, S England and E England perhaps also NE Scotland elsewhere near normal. Slightly enhanced probs for well above normal
PSML: Probs for below normal pressure highest across N England and Mildlands. Probs for well above normal over and to the NW of UK.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110116
TEMP: Season above normal
FEB above normal MAR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above APR above normal
PPN : Season Scotland and E England above elsewhere normal
FEB Eire, England and Wales below normal far N Scotland above elsewhere normal MAR above normal well above innW Scotland W and SW Wales and SW England APR normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME. TEMP:
FEB Cornwall above N Scotland below elsewhere normal MAR normal but above in N Ireland, Eire, SW and W Scotland Wales and SW England APR normal but below in Midlands, E and SE England MAY above normal JUN Normal for NW Scotland, Eire and SW England elsewhere below normal JUL Normal in SW England, SW Wales, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere below AUG E of England normal elswhere above SEP above normal OCT Central, E and SE England normal elsewhere above NOV above normal DEC above or well above normal
PPN :
FEB normal but N Wales, N England, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal MAR near normal chance of above in S and below in NW APR Scotland and NW Eire below normal elsewhere normal MAY Above normal in SE half of Eire, NW England, Wales, SW England, W and S England including Midlands elsewhere normal JUN normal JUL normal but central Eire above AUG normal but E of England below SEP below normal OCT normal NOV S England and S Wales normal elsewhere above DEC normal but far N Scotland above
PMSL:
FEB Below in S above in N (SW) MAR Below in S above in N (SW) APR Slightly below in S. Slightly above in N (W) MAY Below normal mainly in N (WSW) JUN slightly below normal (WNW) JUL Below normal in N (WNW) AUG Slightly below in N. Slightly above in S (W) SEP above normal (SW) OCT slightly below in N (SW) NOV above in S below in N (strong SW) DEC above normal over and SW of UK (SW)


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070116 - see graphics for month to month
TEMP: SEASON: Roughly a 60% prob for above normal temperatures - highest probs in S and E lower in NW. Fairly good agreement between the various models in the ensemble.
PPN: SEASON: normal, prob above normal 40 or 50%. About 30% of the models have drier than normal but swamped by the wetter runs.


Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150116
TEMP: Season: NW normal SE above normal
FEB far NW normal elsewhere above MAR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above APR Scotland, N Ireland, Eire NW England and N Wales normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: NE normal elsewhere above normal
FEB above normal MAR normal but S and E above APR normal but S and SW above



Graphics
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:


UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN mean anomaly 141115



NMME and CFS2 ENS mean 200hPa height anomaly. Data from NOAA NCEP CPC server



Spring 2016 MAR APR MAY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Summary - 13Jan2016 - Unsettled with low pressure often over or crossing the UK but more ridging probable in May. Above normal temperatures, especially in the S and E of UK but with lower probabilities in the NW. Rainfall fairly good agreement for above normal, strongest signal in March lower indication for above normal in May.


IRI Statistical data for El Nino UK PPN - Above normal precip for many areas suggested by statistical link to El Nino - see maps. However forecasts suggest El Nino may be weakening in Spring 2016.

IRI climate impacts.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250116
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5 anomaly)
MAR normal perhaps above in far SE APR normal (+/-0.5 anomaly) MAY normal but parts of Wales, S England and S Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal but S of England and Wales above normal
MAR SE Eire, England and Wales above normal. NW Scotland below normal elsewhere normal APR mostly above normal but N Ireland and N Eire normal MAY NW Scotland above normal elsewhre normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150116
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR near normal APR near normal MAY near normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland and E Midlands normal elsewhere above
MAR Below normal NW Scotland and NW Eire. Above normal E Scotland, most of England and Wales also SE Eire. Elsewhere normal APR above normal MAY NW Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire above, SW England E Scotland below elsewhere near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080116
TEMP: Season: near normal
MAR near normal APR near normal MAY near normal possibly below in S or SE
PPN: Season: Above normal but N half Scotland near normal
MAR Eire, N Ireland, N half Scotland and parts of E midlands normal elsewhere above normal APR above normal all areas MAY normal for N Ireland and northern two thirds of Scotland elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010116
TEMP: Season: near normal perhaps far SE above
MAR normal but far SE England above APR normal but far SE England above MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal
MAR slightly above normal APR normal but above normal for E of Eire, NW England and all but far SE Scotland MAY above normal but far NE Scotland normal



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble - 300116
TEMP: 33 to 50% prob above normal but 60 to 70% in Eire.
PPN: 33 to 50% prob below normal for E Eire, W Scotland N Ireland, W and SW England and Wales, elsewhere normal


USA - IRI - 220116 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal most likely probs over 70% across the N. Lowest probs in the S of England and SE Eire 45%. W Eire 55%. SW England 60%.
PPN : Hint that E of England may be above normal but mainly no signal for departure from normal probabilites.


BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: Eire and NW UK above normal elsewhere near normal


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 130116
Temp: Above normal but W Scotland, NW England, and N Ireland near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN : Above normal for W Scotland, W Wales, SW England and S of England, well above in Eire and N Ireland. Elsewhere near normal
PMSL: Below normal in N near or slightly above normal in S
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal
PPN : above normal for N Ireland, Eire, Wales and SW England elsewhere near normal


UKMO - 110116 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg, 50km resolution, 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks. 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: above normal most likely but lower probs in W. Slightly enhanced probs for well below normal over Eire, but enhanced probs for well above the strongest signal being for Wales and S of England.
PPN : Above normal most likely for SE Eire, Wales and most of England elsewhere normal.Probbility for below normal across S of UK less than 20%. Enhanced probs for well above normal strongest signal in the S.
PSML: Eire and S half of UK main signal near normal but in the north below normal. Enhanced probs for well below normal over Eire and UK (less so in the N)
Z500: Enhanced probs for well below normal over Eire, Wales and England.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110116
TEMP: Season above normal
MAR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above APR above normal MAY N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above
PPN : Season normal
MAR above normal well above innW Scotland W and SW Wales and SW England APR normal MAY Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
TEMP:
MAR normal but above in N Ireland, Eire, SW and W Scotland Wales and SW England APR normal but below in Midlands, E and SE England MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR near normal chance of above in S and below in NW APR Scotland and NW Eire below normal elsewhere normal MAY Above normal in SE half of Eire, NW England, Wales, SW England, W and S England including Midlands elsewhere normal
PMSL:
MAR Below in S above in N (SW) APR Slightly below in S. Slightly above in N (W) MAY Below normal mainly in N (WSW)


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070116
TEMP: SEASON: Scotland, N Ireland and parts of Eire near normal elsewhere above normal strongest signal in SE.
PPN: SEASON: hint of drier in or to the N of Uk but for UK above normal rainfall most likely (50% prob)
Z200: Note NMME signal for an enhanced Atlantic Jet shown in figure in above section.

Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150116
TEMP: Season: NW half of UK and Eire normal SE above normal
MAR Scotland, N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above APR Scotland, N Ireland, Eire NW England and N Wales normal elsewhere above MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but the S above normal
MAR normal but S and E above APR normal but S and SW above MAY normal




Graphics 070116
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly





Late Spring 2016 APR MAY JUN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250116
TEMP: Season: normal (+/-0.5 anomaly)
APR normal (+/-0.5 anomaly) MAY normal but parts of Wales, S England and S Scotland above normal JUN normal locally below W Cornwall and NE England
PPN: Season: N Ireland, Scotland, N England and far SE England above normal elsewhere normal
APR mostly above normal but N Ireland and N Eire normal MAY NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN N Ireland, Scotland, NW England and far SE England above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150116
TEMP: Season: normal
APR near normal MAY near normal JUN near normal
PPN: Season: normal for NE Scotland S and E Eire and SW England elsewhere aboove
APR above normal MAY NW Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire above, SW England E Scotland below elsewhere near normal JUN Normal for N England Scotland Eire and N Ireland, elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080116
TEMP: Season: near normal
APR near normal MAY near normal possibly below in S or SE JUN near normal
PPN: Season: Above normal for England, Wales S and NW Scotland and W Eire elsewhere normal
APR above normal all areas MAY normal for N Ireland and northern two thirds of Scotland elsewhere above normal JUN normal but NW Scotland and SE England above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010116
TEMP: Season: near normal
APR normal but far SE England above MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: above normal
APR normal but above normal for E of Eire, NW England and all but far SE Scotland MAY above normal but far NE Scotland normal JUN normal but above for far W Eire, Midlands and SE England



SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble - 300116
TEMP: SE ENgland near normal elsewhere 33 to 50% prob above normal.
PPN: 33 to 50% below normal


USA - IRI - 220116 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Strong signal for above normal. Mostly over 70% probs locally 60% in S.
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: Eire slightly below normal elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN: Season: Eire and N Ireland and Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere near normal


UKMO - 110116 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: above normal most likely. Enhanced probs for well above normal in most area only slightly enhanced in SE England and W Eire
PPN : above normal for many areas but normal more likely across Wales and Midlands. Slightly enhanced probs for well above normal.
PSML: near normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110116
TEMP: Season above normal
APR above normal MAY N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above JUN above normal
PPN : Season normal
APR normal MAY Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUN normal but E of England above normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
TEMP:
APR normal but below in Midlands, E and SE England MAY above normal JUN Normal for NW Scotland, Eire and SW England elsewhere below normal JUL Normal in SW England, SW Wales, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere below
PPN :
APR Scotland and NW Eire below normal elsewhere normal MAY Above normal in SE half of Eire, NW England, Wales, SW England, W and S England including Midlands elsewhere normal JUN normal
PMSL:
APR Slightly below in S. Slightly above in N (W) MAY Below normal mainly in N (WSW) JUN slightly below normal (WNW)



MAY JUN JUL -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250116
TEMP: Season: near normal
MAY normal but parts of Wales, S England and S Scotland above normal JUN normal locally below W Cornwall and NE England JUL normal locally below W Cornwall and NE England.
PPN: Season: W Scotland and NW England above elsewhere normal
MAY NW Scotland above normal elsewhere normal JUN N Ireland, Scotland, NW England and far SE England above normal JUL Below normal S Eire and NW Scotland. Elsewhere normal bur above normal for parts of SW England E England and N England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150116
TEMP: Season:
MAY near normal JUN near normal JUL near normal
PPN: Season: normal but far NW Scotland above and below normal in NE Scotland and SW England
MAY NW Scotland, N Ireland and NW Eire above, SW England E Scotland below elsewhere near normal JUN Normal for N England Scotland Eire and N Ireland, elsewhere above normal JUL below normal locally normal in far N Scotland and above normal in far NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080116
TEMP: Season: near normal but S and SE England above
PPN: Season: near normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010116
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: normal but above for Midlands and SE England, W Scotland and most of Eire



Korea APCC - 250116
Temp: Season above normal
MAY mostly above normal JUN near normal or no signal JUL mostly above normal
PPN : Season hint at above normal in NW and S but mainly no signal
MAY no signal or similar probs for above/normal/below JUN no signal or similar probs for above/normal/below JUL hint at above normal in NW mostly no signal



USA - IRI - 220116 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Strong signal for above normal. W Scotland and Eire mostly over 70% probs lowest probs 45% E Midlands many areas 60% prob.
PPN : no signal - similar probs for above/normal/below


BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly below normal
PPN: Season: S near or slightly below normal N near or slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110116
TEMP: Season above normal
MAY N Ireland and Eire normal elsewhere above JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season normal
MAY Eire, N Ireland and W Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUN normal but E of England above normal JUL Wales and SW UK below normal N Scotland above elsewhere normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN Normal for NW Scotland, Eire and SW England elsewhere below normal JUL Normal in SW England, SW Wales, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere below
PPN :
MAY Above normal in SE half of Eire, NW England, Wales, SW England, W and S England including Midlands elsewhere normal JUN normal JUL normal but central Eire above
PMSL:
MAY Below normal mainly in N (WSW) JUN slightly below normal (WNW) JUL Below normal in N (WNW)



Summer 2016 JUN JUL AUG -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Comment - 18Jan2016 - BCC China suggests normal or slightly cooler than normal - suggest near normal best bet for summer temps overall.
Summary - 13Jan2016 limited data - Overall normal or above normal temperatures expected, strongest indication for above normal in the S and SE of UK in July. Above normal rain in the N but below in the S, July being the driest month overall but with low confidence.

Discussion - 13Jan2016 Two of the seven model ensembles making up NMME suggest near normal (see CFS2 graphics which hint at cooler in SW UK) but the majority suggest above normal temperatures especially in S and E. Rainfall split 2 wetter 5 normal but 2 of the 5 suggest NW or N drier than normal. Enhanced zonal jet at first in June but mainly towards the N of UK. This is similar to data in December.

Comment - 130116 - IRI statistical rainfall risk not included as El Nino should be Neutral by summer 2016


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250116
TEMP: Season: near normal locally below in NE England and Cornwall
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Englnd and SE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150116
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Cornwall

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010116
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: near normal but locally above in SE England and locally below in far W Cornwall



BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: near or slightly below normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales near or slightly below normal elsewhere near normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110116
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN normal but E of England above normal JUL Wales and SW UK below normal N Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG Scotland and N Ireland above normal elsewhere normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
TEMP:
JUN Normal for NW Scotland, Eire and SW England elsewhere below normal JUL Normal in SW England, SW Wales, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere below AUG E of England normal elswhere above
PPN :
JUN normal JUL normal but central Eire above AUG normal but E of England below
PMSL:
JUN slightly below normal (WNW) JUL Below normal in N (WNW) AUG Slightly below in N. Slightly above in S (W)


Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070116
TEMP: Season: above normal most likely

PPN: Season: below normal (note signal from monthly data for August being possibly wetter especially in N).

Graphics 070116
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP





CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN




NMME MAX and MIN






NMME TEMP:





NMME PPN rate:




NMME TEMP PROBS:



NMME PPN:




UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly



NMME and CFS2 ENS mean 200hPa height anomaly. Data from NOAA NCEP CPC server



JUL AUG SEP -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250116
TEMP: Season: near normal hint at colder in far SW England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S of England, Midlands and S Scotland.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150116
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Cornwall and S of Eire



BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: Eire and N Ireland slightly above elsewhere near or slightly below normal
PPN: Season: near or slightly below normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 110116
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP slightly above normal
PPN :
JUL Wales and SW UK below normal, N Scotland above elsewhere normal AUG Scotland and N Ireland above normal elsewhere normal SEP Scotland N Ireland and Elre below normal elsewhere normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
TEMP:
JUL Normal in SW England, SW Wales, Eire, N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere below AUG E of England normal elswhere above SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal but central Eire above AUG normal but E of England below SEP below normal
PMSL:
JUL Below normal in N (WNW) AUG Slightly below in N. Slightly above in S (W) SEP above normal (SW)



AUG SEP OCT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: near normal
PPN: Season: S near or slightly above normal. N near or slightly below normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
TEMP:
AUG E of England normal elswhere above SEP above normal OCT Central, E and SE England normal elsewhere above
PPN :
AUG normal but E of England below SEP below normal OCT normal
PMSL:
AUG Slightly below in N. Slightly above in S (W) SEP above normal (SW) OCT slightly below in N (SW)



SEP OCT NOV -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BCC China - 180116 -
TEMP: Season: near normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: S near or slightly above normal. N near or slightly below normal


Meteorological Service of Canada 010116 included 240116
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT Central, E and SE England normal elsewhere above NOV above normal DEC above or well above normal
PPN :
SEP below normal OCT normal NOV S England and S Wales normal elsewhere above DEC normal but far N Scotland above
PMSL:
SEP above normal (SW) OCT slightly below in N (SW) NOV above in S below in N (strong SW) DEC above normal over and SW of UK (SW)


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory


Comments or questions please E mail

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