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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available.
Previous summary - DECEMBER 2014 data
Current issue

Summary of internationally available experimental Forecasts for Month ahead and Seasons ahead based on data available Jan 2015

Updated 260115 (UK contingency 020215). Main updates are noted on Twitter @T2mike


This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest

Click for El NINO info


JAN data awaited from the GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

UK contingency. Periodic updates to USA CFS2.


Sites with no data
Russia WEB SITE WORKING again 231014 but forecast not avilable Jan 2015 issue
USA - FSU GSM COAPS seasonal anoms WEB SITE NOT UPDATING since AUG2014
KMA - no EU data using APCC


CFS2 temperature plots for 42 weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown



SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



FEB MAR APR 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment - 200115 -Temperature: Signal mostly for normal or above. Various monthly hints at colder spells but no consensus. Possibly the N of UK more likely to be below normal possibly due to cold than normal N Atlantic sea temps. Precipitation: North/NW more likely to be above normal with the S closer to normal. Combined with cooler temps implies increased hill snow for N UK.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 260115
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in far SE England
FEB NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR above normal for Eire, N Ireland, SW Scotland, Wales, S and SW England elsewhere normal APR above normal for Eire, Scotland N/NW England SW And S England MAY Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190115
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal but above in S England and Wales MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: N half Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above
FEB N and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAR normal locally above in SW England and SW Eire APR above normal but N Scotland normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080115
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal but above in S of England MAR normal APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW and SE England NW England and SW and W Scotland also SW Eire
FEB above normal except far N Scotland normal MAR normal for Eire, central and E Wales and Midlands below normal APR normal but SW Eire above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030115
TEMP: Season: normal
FEB normal MAR normal but S Eire colder APR normal
PPN: Season: normal but NW Scotland above normal
FEB normal but above normal in SE England Wales and SW England Most of Eire and N Ireland also most of Scotland except the E MAR normal but SE Eire below and NW Scotland above APR below normal except NE Scotland normal



Korea APCC - 260115
Temp: Season near normal in W slightly above in E/SE
FEB slightly above normal MAR slightly above normal but normal in NW APR
PPN : Season near normal but risk above in E of England normal perhaps slightly above in S and E
FEB normal MAR normal but slightly above in E APR normal


BCC China - 200115 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: N Eire and NW Scotland slightly above elsewhere normal or slightly below


Japan JMA 160115
Temp: Season slightly below normal
FEB slightly below normal MAR slightly above APR slightly below
PPN : Season slightly above in N and slightly below in S half of UK and S half Eire
FEB slightly below normal but SW England and far S Eire/SW Wales slightly above MAR N slightly below S slightly above APR slightly above
PMSL: Season slightly below normal (Weak W mean)
FEB below normal (W) MAR slightly below (WSW) APR slightly below (very Weak mean W)


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160115
TEMP: Season Scotland and Eire/N Ireland below normal elsewhere normal
FEB below normal except SE England normal or above MAR N half UK below normal elsewhere normal APR slightly above normal
PPN : Season NW Scotland below normal elsewhere normal but perhaps above in far S England
FEB above normal but NW Scotland below MAR northern two thirds of UK below normal (and N Half Eire) elsewhere normal APR normal but slightly below near coasts in N, E and W.


UKMO contingency issued 290115 (available 020215)
Season:
Temp fairly even spread above/below normal slightly favouring above normal but with slightly enhanced probs for well above normal.
PPN: fairly even spread above/below normal slightly favouring above normal

UKMO 130115
TEMP season : normal or above most likely with enhanced probs (over40%) for well above normal across England, Wales and SE Eire. Normal more likely in west due lower sea temps thsan normal.
PPN season : above normal most likely but normal in S. Enhanced probs for well above normal northern two thirds of UK.
PMSL season : Enhanced probs for well below across N two thirds of UK

USA - IRI - 200115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Prob of above normal (the main signal) is in the 45 to 50% range for most of UK and Eire.
PPN : no signal for a depature from normal probs of being above/normal or below.


Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes 090115
Temp: slightly above but normal for far SE England and Eire
PPN : normal but slightly above in S and W Eire
PMSL: below normal (2 to 4hPa below average)
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : above normal for Eire N, Scotland, S England and S Wales



Russia web image missing as of 090115

The US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental multi-model seasonal forecasting system consisting of coupled models from US modeling centers including NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/GFDL, NCAR, NASA, and Canada's CMC. See - the BAMS article describing the project ( Kirtman et al. 2014) . NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
USA Seasonal combined ensemble NMME : Anomaly ranges for CFS2 different from CPC web.

Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 090115
TEMP: SEASON: above normal but W Eire normal

PPN: SEASON: near normal but 40% prob slightly above normal except Scotland



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 090115
TEMP: SEASON: normal but England slightly above


PPN: SEASON: near normal but slightly above in NW of UK

CFS2 and NMME test graphics
CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN



NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





Spring MAR APR MAY 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Comment 200115 - indications for a colder spring in late 2014 output seem to have reduced with normal or above normal more likely. Hints at drier than normal in S/SE but above normal ppn in NW. USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAR above normal for Eire, N Ireland, SW Scotland, Wales, S and SW England elsewhere normal APR above normal for Eire, Scotland N/NW Engl;and SW And S England MAY Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190115
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR nornal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but above for SW Eire, S and SW England SE Scotland nd NE England
MAR normal locally above in SW England and SW Eire APR above normal but N Scotland normal MAY normal locally above in central Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080115
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal br> PPN: Season: normal
MAR normal for Eire, central and E Wales and Midlands below normal APR normal but SW Eire above MAY normal but S Eire above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030115
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal but S Eire colder APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but E Eire below normal
MAR normal but SE Eire below and NW Scotland above APR below normal except NE Scotland normal MAY normal but Cornwall above



BCC China - 200115 -
TEMP: Season: normal or slightly above
PPN: Season: England slightly below elsewhere slightly above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160115
TEMP: Season normal perhaps slightly above in E/SE England
MAR N half UK below normal elsewhere normal APR slightly above normal MAY normal
PPN : Season normal but NW Scotland below
MAR northern two thirds of UK below normal (and N Half Eire) elsewhere normal APR normal but slightly below near coasts in N, E and W. MAY normal but Wales and southern two thirds of England below


USA - IRI - 200115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Prob of above normal (the main signal) is in the 45 to 50% range for most of UK and Eire, slightly higher in the N of Scotland and slightly lower in S of UK.
PPN : no signal for a depature from normal probs of being above/normal or below.


UKMO 130115
TEMP season : normal or above most likely with enhanced probs (over40%) for well above normal across England and S Wales. Normal more likely in N and W due lower sea temps than normal.
PPN season : above normal most likely but normal in central England/midlands. Enhanced probs for well above normal northern two thirds of UK.
PMSL season : Enhanced probs for well below across N two thirds of UK

NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:


CFS2 TEMP



CFS2 PPN





APR MAY JUN 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR above normal for Eire, Scotland N/NW England SW And S England MAY Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUN normal but above in W Eire and SW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190115
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal locally cold NE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in S England, SW Eire SW and S Scotland and NW/N England
APR above normal but N Scotland normal MAY normal locally above in central Scotland JUN normal but above in S Eire, N Ireland, NW England and SW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080115
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR normal but SW Eire above MAY normal but S Eire above JUN normal but W Scotland and Central Eire above SW England, S Wales E Midlands and NE England below normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030115
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal
APR below normal except NE Scotland normal MAY normal but Cornwall above JUN normal but Scotland and Eire above



BCC China - 200115 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above
PPN: Season: England normal elsewhere slightly above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160115
TEMP: Season slightly above normal
APR slightly above normal MAY normal JUN Above normal
PPN : Season normal
APR normal but slightly below near coasts in N, E and W. MAY normal but Wales and southern two thirds of England below JUN NW Scotland below elsewhere normal


UKMO 130115
TEMP season : typical risk of above/below normal temps but normal or above more likely in SE third of UK.
PPN season : above normal or above more likely with risk of we;; above normal in 25-40% range.
PMSL season : normal or below with below normal most likely in the N of Scotland.

USA - IRI - 200115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Prob of above normal (the main signal) is in the 45 to 50% range for most of UK and Eire but over 50% in the N and W of Scotlnd and N and W of Eire.
PPN : no signal for a depature from normal probs of being above/normal or below.



MAY JUN JUL 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal but below normal for S Eire and W Scotland
MAY Eire, N Ireland and Scotland below normal elsewhere normal JUN normal but above in W Eire and SW England JUL normal but below normal for Scotland except the N, Wales SW England and NE England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190115
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal locally cold NE England JUL normal locally colder NE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in Central Lowlands Scotland
MAY normal locally above in central Scotland JUN normal but above in S Eire, N Ireland, NW England and SW Scotland JUL normal but above in W and SW Scotland but below normal for Midlands and SW England and parts of S/SE Wales

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080115
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but S Scotland and NE England below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030115
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China - 200115 -
TEMP: Season: slightly below normal
PPN: Season: slightly above normal


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160115
TEMP: Season slightly above normal
MAY normal JUN Above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season normal
MAY normal but Wales and southern two thirds of England below JUN NW Scotland below elsewhere normal JUL Normal but NW UK above


USA - IRI - 200115 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Prob of above normal (the main signal) is in the 45 to 50% range for N UK and W Eire elsewhere 40 to 45%.
PPN : no signal for a depature from normal probs of being above/normal or below.



Summer JUN JUL AUG 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Summer comment 200115 - typical summer with near normal temperatures and rather variable rainfall.


USA - NCEP CFS2 -
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in W Scotland and SW Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 190115
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Argyll

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080115
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Eire and below in SW England S Wales and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 030115
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China - 200115 -
TEMP: Season: N Ireland and Scotland slightly above normal elsewhere cooler
PPN: Season: slightly above normal except in far N slightly below


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 160115
TEMP: JUN Above normal JUL above normal AUG normal SEP below normal
PPN: JUN NW Scotland below elsewhere normal JUL Normal but NW UK above AUG N normal of S above normal SEP well above normal



NMME TEMP:



NMME PPN:





Autumn SEP OCT NOV 2015 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------



BCC China - 200115 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
PPN: Season: N slightly below elsewhere slightly above


NOTEs: 1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normals is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE. with the the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory

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