SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - January 2020 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 230220 delayed due to laptop failure(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES

FINAL UPDATE 270220

Graphics via WMO: NOT available Pretoria, Beijing.


Some data will appear from multiple sources e.g. Source country and also ensemble grouping (NMME, WMO or Copernicus). Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010220 080220 150220) Temperature graphics (080220) E3 graphics (080220), Russia 010220, CanSips 060220, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060220, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) 080220, NMME and CFS2 graphics 090220, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 090220, Japan JMA 100220, UKMO seasonal 110220, JAMSTEC 150220, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD CMCC NCEP) 150220, BCC China 150220. USA - IRI 230220, Korea APCC 230220, UKMO contingency 270220

Graphics via WMO: 110220 CPTEC, Seoul, DWD, Moscow and CMC. 140220 BoM, UKMO, Washington, Tokyo, Toulouse, ECMWF and WMO multi ensemble (11 models).

International IMME no longer available from NCEP - see WMO graphics and Copernicus

Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO CFS latest ENSO NNME latest
UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London



SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output for UK and EIRE
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



MAR APR MAY

Summary - 230220 - Strong signal for above average temperatures but given the very mild winter a colder than average spell seems likely some time in March/April. Models seem not to be able to predict colder intervals reliably. Rainfall is likely to be below normal in Eire and S of UK (especially first half of season) but perhaps above in NW Scotland and nearer normal elsewhere.


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220220
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal but Eire N Ireland and Wales normal
PPN: Season: England and Wales below, NW Scotland above elsewhere normal
MAR England and Wales below, W Eire and NW Scotland above, elsewhere normal APR mostly below locally normal in Eire N Ireland S Scotland and NW Scotland MAY SW England and Midlands below, Highland Scotyland above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150220
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: S below and far NW above elsewhere normal
MAR NW above SE above APR below normal but normal in N MAY SE below far NW above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080220
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal MAY above normal l
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland and SW Eire
MAR W Eire and W Scotland above, S and E England below elsewhere normal APR normal locally above in W Scotland MAY normal locally above in Eire, Scotland and NW England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010220
TEMP: Season: above normal but W Eire normal
MAR W Eire normal elsewhere above normal and well above in SE England APR Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S and W Eire, SW England, coastal NW England and SW Scotland
MAR above normal but E of UK normal APR normal but SW Eire above normal MAY normal locally above in Cornwall




UKMO contingency - 270220
TEMP:
Season: Above normal very likely, less than 5% of solutions normal or below with the main cluster one to one and a half degrees C above normal. UKMO states that chance of well above normal (1 in 5 year) is 55%.
PPN:
Season: Fairly even spread of solutions, marginally more in the above normal chiefly in the very much above normal. UKMO states above normal more likely.



USA - IRI - 230220 -
Temp: Eire and N Ireland no signal elsewhere above normal
PPN : SW Eire and Wales above, NE Scotland and E Anglia below elsewhere no signal



Korea APCC - 230220
Temp: Season above normal

PPN : Season no signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN:
MAR below normal APR S below N above MAY below normal



Copernicus C3S - new climate sizes and additional models November 2018
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Meteo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C). Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile).
Copernicus(EU) C3S multi model ensemble -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: NW above elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: N and W above elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal or below
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: normal or below normal
PPN: NW above elsewhere normal
PMSL: normal but above in S
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: normal but above in N
PMSL: above normal
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: normal but above in N
PMSL: normal
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: normal locally below in Midlands and above in W Scotland
PMSL: normal or above normal
NCEP 52 members 384 climate size (added OCT 2019)
TEMP: above normal
PPN: normal but above in N England, S Scotland and Eire and localy below in SE England
PMSL: below normal




jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150220
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: above normal



UKMO (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
robs based on terciles.
UKMO - 110220 -
TEMP: Above normal most likely more than 60% prob. Chance of below normal <20%, normal 20 to 40%.
PPN : Reduced probs for above normal in SW of UK otherwise no strong signals but hint at above normal in NW Scotland and below normal in some W and SW parts.
PSML: Most likely above normal



Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
JMA - 100220 - data 050220
Temp: Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season mostly below normal but far N Scotland above
MAR below normal APR NW half above normal SE half below normal MAY far N above normal elsewhere below
PMSL: Season above normal (weak W)
MAR well above normal (W) APR above normal (Weak W) MAY above normal (slack W)



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 090220
Temp: normal
PPN : South Eire, SE England and Midlands above normal elsewhere normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : normal but above normal in N Scotland, Eire and all S and SE of England



Russia 010220
Temp: W Eire and SW England below, near normal N Sea coasts elsewhere no signal
PPN : No sinal similar pros for A/N/B



Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS -0060220
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR Eire, W Wales and S half of England normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal locally above in NE Scotland J
PPN :
MAR mostly below normal APR normal but Wales and S of England below MAY above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060220
TEMP:
MAR normal but above in N Scotland and S England APR normal but above in N Scotland and SW England MAY above normal JU
PPN :
MAR SW Eire and SW UK above, N Ireland, Scotland N England below elsewhere normal APR mostly above normal MAY mostly above normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME - NCEPCFSv2 CanCM4i GEMNEMO GFDLFLOR GFDLCM2.1 NCARCCSM4 NASAGEOS5b2) ex NOAA date - 080220
TEMP: SEASON: Above normal
MAR Above normal APRIL Above normal MAY Above normal
PPN: SEASON: locally below in SW UK and SE Eire elsewhere no signal
MAR N above far SW below elsewhere no signal APRIL NW Eire above elsewhere elsewhere no signal MAY no signal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN7 TN2 TN3

TN8 TN5 TN6

NASA anomaly .
200

ECMWF monthly
200

EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height month mean CFS2, CFS2 anomaly and NMME height anomaly 1 deg grib

200


WMO February 2020 data
WMO combined multi model monthly - model probability OR anomaly.
Probability combined.
200

CPTEC Brazil monthly
200

Canada monthly
200

Moscow monthly
200

DWD monthly
200

SEOUL monthly
200

ECMWF monthly low resolution model probability of anomaly from WMO
200

UKMO monthly
200

BOM monthly
200

Tokyo monthly
200

Toulouse monthly
200

Washington monthly
200



2020 APR MAY JUN




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220220
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal but Eire N Ireland and Wales normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR mostly below locally normal in Eire N Ireland S Scotland and NW Scotland MAY SW England and Midlands below, Highland Scotyland above elsewhere normal JUN SW England and S Eire above, S Scotland N and NE England below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150220
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR below normal but normal in N MAY SE below far NW above elsewhere normal JUN mostly above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080220
TEMP:
APR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal MAY above normal JUN above normal but Wales SW England and S Eire normal
PPN:
APR normal locally above in W Scotland MAY normal locally above in Eire, Scotland and NW England JUN S Eire and SW England above, below in N Ireland, Scotland, N England elsewherte normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010220
TEMP:
APR Eire normal elsewhere above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal but Eire, Wales and SW England normal
PPN: b
APR normal but SW Eire above normal MAY normal locally above in Cornwall JUN above normal but N Ireland, East Anglia and N England normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR S below N above MAY below normal JUN below normal



UKMO - 110220 -
TEMP: above normal most likely (60% prob), near normal 20 to 40%
PPN : ABove normal most likely with the highest probs for above normal in E England and NE Scotland
PSML: near normal most likely



CanSIPS -0060220
TEMP:
APR Eire, W Wales and S half of England normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal locally above in NE Scotland JUN Eire normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
APR normal but Wales and S of England below MAY above normal JUN SE Eire above normal elsewhere normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060220
TEMP:
APR normal but above in N Scotland and SW England MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN :
APR mostly above normal MAY mostly above normal JUN E England above elsewher mostly below normal





2020 MAY JUN JUL



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220220
TEMP:
MAY above normal but Eire N Ireland and Wales normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY SW England and Midlands below, Highland Scotyland above elsewhere normal JUN SW England and S Eire above, S Scotland N and NE England below elsewhere normal JUL mostly above normal but normal in N Ireland, SE England and N half Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150220
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL SW UK normal elsewhere above
PPN:
MAY SE below far NW above elsewhere normal JUN mostly above normal JUL NE below elsewhere mostly above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080220
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal but Wales SW England and S Eire normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY normal locally above in Eire, Scotland and NW England JUN S Eire and SW England above, below in N Ireland, Scotland, N England elsewherte normal JUL above in W Scotland, below in E Eire elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010220
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal but Eire, Wales and SW England normal JUL normal but Scotland above normal
PPN:
MAY normal locally above in Cornwall JUN above normal but N Ireland, East Anglia and N England normal JUL above normal but normal in N Ireland, NE and SE Scotland and NE England



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN:
MAY below normal JUN below normal JUL below normal



UKMO - 110220 -
TEMP: above normal most likely (60% prob), near normal 20 to 40%
PPN : above normal slightly more likely than normal or below
PSML: hint of below normal in or to the north and above in or to the south.



CanSIPS - 060220
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in NE Scotland JUN Eire normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal in Eire, Wales, Midlands and SW England elsewhere above normal
PPN :
MAY above normal JUN SE Eire above normal elsewhere normal JUL normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060220
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL S normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
MAY mostly above normal JUN E England above elsewher mostly below normal JUL below normal in SW England and SE Eire elswhere mostly above normal





2020 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 230220 - Fair agreement in generally above average temperature for summer but hints at nearer normal values for west and south at times. Rainfall very mixed signal but above average in Eire and SW UK seems to outway the below average solutions, overall near or above average for season. No reliable indication for a drier month.




USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220220
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in Wales SW England and Eire
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Eire SW England and S Wales
JUN SW England and S Eire above, S Scotland N and NE England below elsewhere normal JUL mostly above normal but normal in N Ireland, SE England and N half Scotland AUG normal but above in SW England Wales N and W Midlands N England, S Scotland and moch of Eire.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150220
TEMP: Season: normal but above in Scotland and E England
JUN above normal JUL SW UK normal elsewhere above AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW UK/SW Eire
JUN mostly above normal JUL NE below elsewhere mostly above AUG N and W above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080220
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in NE/N England and N Ireland but above in Cornwall and W Devon

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010220
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in Scotland and E Anglia
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW and S of England, SW Scotland and W Eire.



USA - IRI - 230220 -
Temp: N and E above elsewhere no signal
PPN : Most of Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland W Wales and parts of E England below elsewhere no signal




Korea APCC - 230220
Temp: Season above normal

PPN : Season no signal




BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG normal or above
PPN:
JUN below normal JUL below normal AUG above normal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150220
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal



CanSIPS - 060220
TEMP:
JUN Eire normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal in Eire, Wales, Midlands and SW England elsewhere above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN SE Eire above normal elsewhere normal JUL normal AUG normal but Eire and W Wales below



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060220
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL S normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN E England above elsewhere mostly below normal JUL below normal in SW England and SE Eire elswhere mostly above normal AUG above normal



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble ex NOAA date - 080220
TEMP: SEASON:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: SEASON: South above North no signal
JUN N below far SW above elsewhere no signal JUL N above elsewhere no signal AUG Eire, N Ireland, Wales and N England above normal elsewhere no signal


EU area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P

200hPa height anomaly and mean CFS2+NCAR 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200

NASA anomaly
200

CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN7 TN2 TN3

TN8 TN5 TN6



2020 JUL AUG SEP



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220220
TEMP: Season: normal locally above normal in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally above in west

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150220
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in NW
PPN: Season: normal locally above in west Scotland, SW England and Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 080220
TEMP: Season: above normal but normal in S Eire
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW England, W Eire and NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010220
TEMP: Season: normal but above normal in NW Scotland and E Kent
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW England, SW Scotland and NW Eire.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG normal or above SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL below normal AUG above normal SEP N below S above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060220
TEMP:
JUL S normal elsewhere above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL below normal in SW England and SE Eire elswhere mostly above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal



CanSIPS - 060220
TEMP:
JUL normal in Eire, Wales, Midlands and SW England elsewhere above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal AUG normal but Eire and W Wales below SEP normal





2020 AUG SEP OCT



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 220220
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150220
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
AUG normal or above SEP above normal OCT below normal
PPN:
AUG above normal SEP N below S above OCT below normal but far N above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 060220
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal



CanSIPS - 060220
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN :
AUG normal but Eire and W Wales below SEP normal OCT normal locally above in SE England but below in S Eire N Wales N England and S Scotland





2020 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 230220 limited data - For the season above normal temperature and rainfall but hints at a drier and colder October away from N Scotland and SE England.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT below normal NOV above normal
PPN:
SEP N below S above OCT below normal but far N above NOV S below elsewhere above



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150220
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: above normal



CanSIPS - 060220
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN :
SEP normal OCT normal locally above in SE England but below in S Eire N Wales N England and S Scotland NOV normal but NW Scotland above normal





2020 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
OCT below normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT below normal but far N above NOV S below elsewhere above DEC below normal l



CanSIPS - 060220
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC S Scotland, England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal JAN S England and Wales below elsewher normal
PPN :
OCT normal locally above in SE England but below in S Eire N Wales N England and S Scotland NOV normal but NW Scotland above normal DEC normal but above in EIre, N ireland N and W Scotland NW Wales and coastal areas of NW England





2020 NOV DEC 2021 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV S below elsewhere above DEC below normal JAN N below elsewhere above





2020 DEC 2021 JAN FEB

Summary - not enough data -



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 150220 -
TEMP:
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB above normal
PPN:
DEC below normal JAN N below elsewhere above FEB above normal





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR; 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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