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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - January 2019 data
Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire
Updated 250219(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike
This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest
Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
FINAL UPDATE FOR FEB 2019 Missing data. India Met Office IMO, International IMME.
Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (310119 070219 120219 150219 ) Temperature graphics (120219) E3 graphics (120119), Russia 310119, CanSips 310219, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 080219, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) 100219, BCC China 100219, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 110219, UKMO seasonal 110219, Melbourne 130219, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF DWD and CMCC), Japan JMA 140219, ECMWF monthly (WMO) graphics 150219, JAMSTEC 150219, KMA 150219, USA - IRI 160219, WMO multi model graphics 170219, UKMO Contingency 250219, Korea APCC 250219.
Data received after summary written .
Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).
To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month
2019 MAR APR MAY
Summary - 170219 - TEMPERATURE: The majority of solutions (probably 90%) suggest about normal temepratures for the season as a whole. Monthly data hints at some areas being nearer normal but no agreement as to which months are more likely to be neaer normal. Colder than normal locations shown in the ECMWF graphics have little support from other models and EC tends to be a shade cool?
Precipitation (PPN): The strongest signal for above normal rainfall for the season is for S Eire, Wales and SW parts of UK especially March. Otherwise near normal or below normal for season although some hints that parts of Scotland may be above normal at times.
NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240219
TEMP: Season: Eire normal elsewhere above normal
MAR above normal but W Eire normal APR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal MAY normal locally above in NW Scotland
PPN: Season: normal
MAR above normal in W and SW Scotland, N Ireland, Eire and Cornwall elsewhere normal APR normal but above in NW Scotland and below in SE England E Midlands and Devon/Somerset MAY normal but above in SE England and below in Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150219
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in S
MAR SE third of England above elsewhere normal APR normal but SW England and S Eire above MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Highlands and far SW Eire.
MAR S Eire, Wales and S half England above elsewhere normal APR normal but NW Scotland above MAY normal locally below in Devon
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in SW England, W Scotland and S and W Eire
MAR SW Eirem Wales and SW third of UK above normal NE below elsewhere normal APR normal locally above SW Eire and NW Scotland MAY normal but above in Eire and most of Scotland except SE.
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP: Season: above normal in Wales and S half England elsewhere normal
MAR normal but above in far S of England except Cornwall APR above normal especially in S MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal but normal in E Scotland and E England
MAR normal but above in Eire, Wales and S half England APR above normal but normal in Midlands, centrral S and SE/E England and NE Scotland MAY above normal but niormal in N Ireland, S England and Midlands
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP: Season: normal but above in all S of England
MAR normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: mostly above normal but normal in NE Scotland N England and E Midlands
MAR N and E Scotland, N Ireland and NE England normal elsewhere above APR normal but above normal in Eire SW England Wales NW England and W Scotland MAY normal but above in W Scotland
UKMO contingency - 250219
TEMP:
March: Above normal most likely (only about 10% of members are below normal and the distribition is shifted to warmer conditions with about 25% showing well above average forecast values.
Season: Above normal most likely. Lessn than 20% of solutions are near or below average. Met Office states that chance of lower quintile is 10% and of upper quintile is 50% probability. This 50% prob is an unusually high probability.
PPN:
March: Uncertain. Similar probabilities for above and below normal, perhaps slightly favouring wetter. Could be a split solution with N wetter and S less so but not able to determin this from issued graphics. A minority of forecast solutions exceed the climate range both above and below.
Season: Uncertain. Similar probabilities for above and below normal, perhaps slightly higher probs for wetter than normal. Could be a split solution with N wetter and S less so but not able to determin this from issued graphics. A minority of forecast solutions exceed the climate range both above and below.
Korea APCC - 250219
Temp: Season above normal
MAR above normal APR no signal MAY above normal
PPN : Season S/SW above normal elsewhere no signal
MAR no signal but far S may be above normal APR England Wales and SE Eire above elsewhere no signal MAY no signal
WMO multi model super ensemble 170219 (see grahpic for members and monthly)
TEMP: Season Above normal
PPN : Season Wales, W Midlands and SW England above normal
USA - IRI - 160219
Temp: no signal
PPN : NE Scotland and S half Eire above elsewhere no signal
KMA - 150219 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season N normal elsewhere above
MAR N normal elsewhere above APR SE Eire, SE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above MAY normallocally above in SW Eire and below in NE Scotland
PMSL: Season S normal N below
MAR below normal APR N below S normal MAY England above
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150219
Temp: Season: N normal S below
PPN : Season: mostly below normal
Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season above normal
MAR Scotland and England below elsewhere above normal APR England and Wales below normal elsewhere above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY below normal
PMSL: Season below normal (W)
MAR below normal (WNW) APR above normal MAY above normal (weak WSW)
From November 2018, hindcast period 1993-2016. (Previously hindcast period is 1993-2015 for ECMWF and Met Office and 1993-2014 for Météo-France).
Mean anomaly near normal (+/-0.2C) or +/-20mm rain. Tercile signal then quintile. (U/LQ=upper/lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile). Below based on Tircile summary and ensemble mean anomaly.
Copernicus C3S - 130219
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal perhaps below in far N Scotland
PMSL: near normal
CMCC(IT) 50 members 960 climate size -
TEMP: normal but S Scotland England and Wales above normal
PPN: S above N normal
PMSL: N normal elswhere below
DWD(DE) 50 members 720 climate size -
TEMP: near or above normal, above normal especially in Eire and N Ireland
PPN: N half Scotland below elsewhere normal but chance of SW UK being above
PMSL: S below normal N normal
ECMWF(EU) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: near normal but above in Wales and S half of England, also some coastal areas.
PPN: near normal locally below in N Midlands
PMSL: normal but above to NW of UK
UKMO(GB) 50 members 672 climate size -
TEMP: near or above normal, above especially for England and Wales
PPN: near normal chance of below in N Scotland
PMSL: normal but above normal in and to the N and E of UK
METEO FRANCE(FR) 51 members 600 climate size -
TEMP: above normal
PPN: near normal chance of below in N Scotland
PMSL: normal but above normal to the N and E of UK
Melbourne - 130219
TEMP: Season: mostly below normal
MAR mostly below normal APR normal but Eire, N Ireland, S Scotland and N England below normal MAY mostly below normal
PPN : Season: Above in SW England, below in N Ireland MN half of Eire and SW Scotland elsewhere near normal
MAR Eire, N Ireland and SW Scotland below elsewhere normal APR S Wales SW England and SW Midlands above elsewhere normal MAY normal but below in Eire, N Ireland and S half of Scotland
UKMO - 111019 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg [50km] resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks [42 members] 85 levels 75 ocean levels)
TEMP: above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : no signal apart from SW Scotland and NW Wales above normal and S Eire and SW Wales normal. Slightly increased chance of NE Scotland and E England being well below normal.
PSML: above or well above normal more likely than below
Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 110219
Temp: above normal
PPN : normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal but locally above in NE Scotland
PPN : normal but locally above in W Cornwall, SW half of Eire and NW Scotland
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR above normal but only slightly in S APR above normal MAY above normal but only slightly in S
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR below normal but Scotland slightly above APR below normal MAY below normal but England and Wales slightly above normal
SAWS ECHAM4.5 30 member ensemble. - 100219
TEMP: above normal
PPN: England and Wales no signal elsewhere above normal
SAWS SCM GPC multi member ensemble. - 100219
TEMP: above normal
PPN: no signal
USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
MAR normal locally below over hills N England and S Scotland APR normal MAY normal locally above in Scotland
PPN :
MAR S normal, but S Devon and Dorset below, elsewhere mostly above APR Mixed picture: below in parts of S Wales, SW and N England, S and W Scotland N Ireland and SW Eire elsewhere mostly above MAY Lothians, FiFe and E Highlands below elsewhere above
Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN :
MAR normal APR England and Wales above, far NW Scotland below elsewhere normal MAY normal but SE England above
Russia 310119
Temp: England and Wales above elsewhere no signal
PPN : above normal
Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080219
TEMP: season: Above normal (Monthly 3 models have normal or colder in places March)
PPN rate: Eire and SW UK above normal elsewhere normal
NMME and CFS2 Graphics 080219
CFS2 MAX and MIN not shown
CFS2 TEMP
CFS2 PPN
NMME MAX and MIN not available
NMME TEMP:
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
NMME PPN:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
200hPa height mean CFS2 data 1 deg grib
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
ECMWF monthly
UKMO monthly
WMO multi model monthly
2019 APR MAY JUN
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240219
TEMP:
APR above normal but Eire and N Ireland normal MAY normal locally above in NW Scotland JUN above normal in SW England, Wales Eire N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere normal
PPN:
APR normal but above in NW Scotland and below in SE England E Midlands and Devon/Somerset MAY normal but above in SE England and below in Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland JUN below normal but normal in NE Scotland S and SE Scotland N England and SW England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150219
TEMP:
APR normal but SW England and S Eire above MAY normal JUN normal but SW England above normal
PPN:
APR normal but NW Scotland above MAY normal locally below in Devon JUN normal locally above in Central Lowlands and parts of SW England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP:
APR Scotland normal elsewhere above normal MAY normal JUN Wales and S England above normal elsewhere normal
PPN:
APR normal locally above SW Eire and NW Scotland MAY normal but above in Eire and most of Scotland except SE. JUN normal but above in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and NE Eire
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP:
APR above normal especially in S MAY normal JUN normal
PPN:
APR above normal but normal in Midlands, centrral S and SE/E England and NE Scotland MAY above normal but normal in N Ireland, S England and Midlands JUN above normal but normal in NE Scotland and eastern coastal England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season:
APR normal but above normal in Eire SW England Wales NW England and W Scotland MAY normal but above in W Scotland JUN normal but above in Midlands and below in S and W Eire
UKMO - 111019 -
TEMP: above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : normal or below normal with slightly increased chance of well below normal.
PSML: above normal
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal but only slightly in S JUN above normal but only slightly in N
PPN:
APR below normal MAY below normal but England and Wales slightly above normal JUN N above S below
USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal locally above in Scotland JUN mostly above JUL normal
PPN :
APR Mixed picture: below in parts of S Wales, SW and N England, S and W Scotland N Ireland and SW Eire elsewhere mostly above MAY Lothians, FiFe and E Highlands below elsewhere above JUN Eire, N Ireland Most of Scotland except SE, NW England and parts of NE Midlands below elsewhere mostly above
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY normal JUN above normal but normal in most of Eire and SW UK
PPN :
APR England and Wales above, far NW Scotland below elsewhere normal MAY normal but SE England above JUN above normal but noral in W Eire, Cornwall and N Scotland
2019 MAY JUN JUL
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240219
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in NW Scotland JUN above normal in SW England, Wales Eire N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere normal JUL above normal in SW Scotland, N Ireland Eire, Wales SW and S third of England elsewhere normal
PPN:
MAY normal but above in SE England and below in Eire, N Ireland SW Scotland JUN below normal but normal in NE Scotland S and SE Scotland N England and SW England JUL normal but below in Midlands and above in NW Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150219
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal but SW England above normal JUL above or well above normal
PPN:
MAY normal locally below in Devon JUN normal locally above in Central Lowlands and parts of SW England JUL mostly below normal, especially Scotland but N Midlands and SE England normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN Wales and S England above normal elsewhere normal JUL above normal especially in S
PPN:
MAY normal but above in Eire and most of Scotland except SE. JUN normal but above in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and NE Eire JUL normal but below in N half of Scotland and near Bristol Channel
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219 4
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY above normal but niormal in N Ireland, S England and Midlands JUN above normal but normal in NE Scotland and eastern coastal England JUL normal locally below in NW Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN:
MAY normal but above in W Scotland JUN normal but above in Midlands and below in S and W Eire JUL S England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere below normal
UKMO - 111019 -
TEMP: above normal with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : not much signal, chance of above in SW England and below in Scotland
PSML: Mostly above normal but SE third of England similar prob for normal
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
MAY above normal but only slightly in S JUN above normal but only slightly in N JUL below normal
PPN:
MAY below normal but England and Wales slightly above normal JUN N above S below JUL slightly above
USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
MAY normal locally above in Scotland JUN mostly above JUL normal
PPN :
MAY Lothians, FiFe and E Highlands below elsewhere above JUN Eire, N Ireland Most of Scotland except SE, NW England and parts of NE Midlands below elsewhere mostly above JUL mostly above
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN above normal but normal in most of Eire and SW UK JUL above normal
PPN :
MAY normal but SE England above JUN above normal but noral in W Eire, Cornwall and N Scotland JUL normal
2019 JUN JUL AUG
Summary - 170219 - Temperatures above normal for season although June might be nearer normal away from the south. Suggestion of increasingly above normal as summer progresses. Rainfall mostly near or below nornal for the season but some western or SW areas of UK and Eire may be wetter in June. Hint at developing drier conditions except perhaps in far N/NW where may become slightly wetter than average later in the season.
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240219
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SW England , SE Eire and Argyll
JUN above normal in SW England, Wales Eire N Ireland and Scotland elsewhere normal JUL above normal in SW Scotland, N Ireland Eire, Wales SW and S third of England elsewhere normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in S Midlands
JUN below normal but normal in NE Scotland S and SE Scotland N England and SW England JUL normal but below in Midlands and above in NW Scotland AUG normal but above in NW Scotland and parts of NW England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150219
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
JUN normal but SW England above normal JUL above or well above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: normal but below in Wales, Midlands NW Scotland N Ireland and Eire.
JUN normal locally above in Central Lowlands and parts of SW England JUL mostly below normal, especially Scotland but N Midlands and SE England normal AUG mostly below normal but NE Scotland and southern England normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: mostly above normal
JUN Wales and S England above normal elsewhere normal JUL above normal especially in S AUG above normal
PPN: Season: normal
JUN normal but above in SW England N Ireland W Scotland and NE Eire JUL normal but below in N half of Scotland and near Bristol Channel AUG mostly below normal but normal in NE Scotland and Central Southern England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal ut below in SW Eire and far W Scotland
Korea APCC - 250219
Temp: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season S/SW above normal elsewhere no signal
JUN no signal JUL no signal AUG no signal
USA - IRI - 160219
Temp: Scotland and E half England above normal elsewhere no signal
PPN : Mostly above normal but N half Scotland no signal
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150219
Temp: Season: above normal
PPN : Season: below normal
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
JUN above normal but only slightly in N JUL below normal AUG above normal but only slightly in N and W
PPN: Season: England and Wales below elsewhere above
JUN N above S below JUL slightly above AUG below normal especially in S
USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
JUN mostly above JUL normal AUG mostly above
PPN :
JUN Eire, N Ireland Most of Scotland except SE, NW England and parts of NE Midlands below elsewhere mostly above JUL mostly above AUG mostly above
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
JUN above normal but normal in most of Eire and SW UK JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN :
JUN above normal but noral in W Eire, Cornwall and N Scotland JUL normal AUG normal
Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080219
TEMP: season : above normal
PPN rate: normal
CFS2 TEMP
CFS2 PPN
NMME MAX and MIN not available
NMME TEMP:
NMME PPN rate:
NMME TEMP PROBS:
NMME PPN:
UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
200hPa height anomaly CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib
CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
ECMWF monthly (caution new hindcast averaging period) 230219
2019 JUL AUG SEP
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240219
TEMP: Season: SW and S England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal but locally above in NW Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150219
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: Mostly below normal but normal in N Eire and N Ireland also SW Scotland, SW and SE England
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in Devon and W Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070219
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310119
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NW Scotland and SW Eire
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
JUL below normal AUG above normal but only slightly in N and W SEP above normal but only slightly in N and W
PPN:
JUL slightly above AUG below normal especially in S SEP N normal or above but S below
USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
JUL normal AUG mostly above SEP normal
PPN :
JUL mostly above AUG mostly above SEP mostly above but SE Scotland below
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal AUG normal SEP normal but above in Wales Midlands N England and S Scotland
2019 AUG SEP OCT
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 240219
TEMP: Season: above normal but N Ireland and Eire normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in NW Scotland
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150219
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal
USA - NCEP CFS2 - 120219
TEMP: Season: above normal
PPN: Season: normal
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal but Eire normal
PPN :
AUG normal SEP normal but above in Wales Midlands N England and S Scotland OCT N ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
AUG above normal but only slightly in N and W SEP above normal but only slightly in N and W OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG below normal especially in S SEP N normal or above but S below OCT N slightly above elsewhere slightly below
USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080219
TEMP:
AUG mostly above SEP normal OCT mostly above
PPN :
AUG mostly above SEP mostly above but SE Scotland below OCT England, Wales and NE Scotland below elsewhere above normal
2019 SEP OCT NOV
Summary - 170219 - limted data - Season above normal temperatures perhaps less so in NW UK than elsewhere. Rainfall below normal in south espcially later in season, N or NW may be above normal. Area in between near normal but divide between above and below (north to south uncertain).
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150219
Temp: Season: below normal
PPN : Season: below normal but SE England above
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
SEP above normal but only slightly in N and W OCT above normal NOV above normal
PPN: Season: N slightly above elsewhere below
SEP N normal or above but S below OCT N slightly above elsewhere slightly below NOV Slightly below but Scotland slightly above
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT above normal but Eire normal NOV above normal but SW Eire normal
PPN :
SEP normal but above in Wales Midlands N England and S Scotland OCT N ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV normal but below in SW England S Wales and S Eire
2019 OCT NOV DEC
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
OCT above normal NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT N slightly above elsewhere slightly below NOV Slightly below but Scotland slightly above DEC slightly above
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
OCT above normal but Eire normal NOV above normal but SW Eire normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT N ireland and Scotland above elsewhere normal NOV normal but below in SW England S Wales and S Eire DEC England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal
2019 NOV DEC 2020 JAN
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal but only slightly in S
PPN:
NOV Slightly below but Scotland slightly above DEC slightly above JAN N slightly below S slightly above
CanSIPS - 010219
TEMP:
NOV above normal but SW Eire normal DEC above normal JAN normal but S Scotland England and Wales above normal
PPN :
NOV normal but below in SW England S Wales and S Eire DEC England and Wales normal elsewhere above normal JAN above normal
2019 DEC 2020 JAN FEB
Summary - 170219 - Very limted data - Milder and wetter than average.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 100219 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal but only slightly in S FEB above normal
PPN: Season: slightly above
DEC slightly above JAN N slightly below S slightly above FEB slightly above
NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecastoriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1degree ocean for the 0.25degree.
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.
KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.
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