SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

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Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK and Eire area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - January 2018 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 270218(ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursday/Friday. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest



Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
USA - NCEP CFS2 (periodic updates), UKMO Contingency, Korea APCC and if available South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (310118 070218 140218 210218), Russia 310118, CanSips 310118, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080218, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 080218, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 100218, ECMWF monthly 120218, UKMO seasonal 120218, Japan JMA 120218, International IMME 150218, JAMSTEC 150218, CopernicusEU MME (UKMO MereoFr ECMWF) 150218, KMA 150218, USA - IRI 150218, BCC China delayed 210218, Korea APCC 260218 South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF and India Met Office IMO NOT available 260218
Data received after summary written.



Nino 3.4 (plots as available): CFS2 updated daily. NMME Nino 3.4. UKMO Tropical N Atlantic plot and NAO. Click image for details.
ENSO NMME comparison ENSO CFS latest

UKMO Tropical N Atlantic




CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 00Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
Exeter London


SEASONAL FORECAST summary of output
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).


To view an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here by about the 20th of each month



2018 MAR APR MAY

Summary - 170218 - Models were slow to pick up on the start of a colder than normal sequence in February but now suggest March will be near or a little colder than normal, followed by a trend towards normal or above normal through April and May. Overall near normal temperaure for the season.
Pecipitation may well be below normal to start the period especially in the North but with a trend to above normal, especially for May. Little agreement between systems for loction of above normal rainfall. Overall precipitation near normal for the season.



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8


NCEP Mean of 40 runs over preceding 10 days. 100KM resolution output. Anomalies wrt 1999-2010 hindcast climatology. (Normal is +/-0.5C from model hindcast mean).

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210218
TEMP: Season: normal but perhaps cooler near coasts in NE England
MAR Below normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: Cornwall above, NW Scotland below elsewhere normal
MAR Scotland below. S and E England and SE Eire above elsewhere normal APR normal MAY normal but above in S and E Scotland, NE and E England, Cornwal and W Devon elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140218
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR Normal but Eire, N Irelannd, Wales and Midlands below normal. APR normal MAY normal but parts of central S England above
PPN: Season: normal locally below in NW Scotland
MAR N England, Scotland N Ireland and W Eire below elsewhere normal APR normal MAY ABove in Cornwall, Eire, N Ireland N England and Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070218
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal
PPN : Season: normal
MAR Below normal APR normal MAY above normal except SE England normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310118
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR Above normal APR above normal MAY normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scotland
MAR below normal APR NW Scotland above, Wales, England and NE Scotland below normal elsewhere normal MAY N Ireland E Eire Wales and SW/S/SE England normal elsewhere




UKMO contingency 270218
TEMP:
March: Colder than normal likely. All solutions shifted towards colder solutions with stronggest signal for about 1 deg C below average. Only one solution is as cold as 2013.
March to May: Split roughly 60/40 in favour of below normal temperatures with main cluster just below normal. There are no solutions as cold as 2013.
PPN:
March: Very large spread of solutions but some clustering at slightly below average which is the main theme.
March to May: Climatological spread of solutions with a few at the high end wetter than climatoligy. Some clustering above and below normal. Met Office states above average slightly more likely but does not look clear cut and if March is to be drier then to be slightly wetter April or May needs to be wetter than average.




Korea APCC - 260218
Temp: Season above normal
MAR slightly above normal APR above normal MAY slightly above normal
PPN : Season No signal
MAR No signal APR No signal but hint of below to S MAY No signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 memebers. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
MAR above normal APR slighty above normal MAY England below elsewhere slightly above normal
PPN: Season: Below normal but far N Scotland normal or above
MAR England and Wales below elsewhere above APR below normal MAY Below normal but SW England above



Copernicus C3S multi model ensemble - 150218
UQ=upper quintile LQ=lower quintile, UT/MT/LT= upper/middle/lower tercile.
TEMP: Normal but above in Eire, N Ireland S Scotland and N England
PPN: normal but above in SW England and perhaps S Wales
PMSL: below normal in N
ECMWF 51 members 345 climate size -
TEMP: normal but below in N Scotland
PPN: normal but above in SW England
PMSL: below normal in N
UKMO 50 members 276 climate size -
TEMP: normal but above in SW England, Eire, N Ireland Wales Scotland and N England.
PPN: above normal in E Eire and S and E of England.
PMSL: below normal in far NW, Eire, Wales and England except the east METEO FRANCE 51 members 330 climate size -
TEMP: normal but above in N England and S Scotland
PPN: normal but above in S/SE England and E Eire
PMSL: below normal in N



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 150218
Temp: E Scotland and E England above elsewhere no signal
PPN : Wales, SW England and W Midlands below normal elsewhere no signal



http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en
jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150218
Temp: Season: Below nornal
PPN : Season: Scotland above elsewhere near normal



Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5), is a joint seasonal forecasting system with UK Met Office. The atmosphere and land surface resolution is 0.833?×0.556?, about 60 km at mid-latitude region. The grid spacing in the ocean and sea-ice models is about 0.25?. The model top is about 85 km that can fully resolve the interaction between troposphere and stratosphere.
KMA - 150218 - .
TEMP : Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season below normal
MAR below normal APR NW above elsewhere normal MAY below
PMSL: Season normal
MAR normal APR normal MAY normal but SW may be below




UKMO - 120218 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Scotland, N Ireland and Eire slightly in favour of above normal elsewhere no signal. All areas slightly enhance pros for well above normal UQ.
PPN : Eire, Wales and England above normal most likely, slightly enhanced chance UQ. Elsewhere near normal.
PSML: Below normal most likely excpt far N Scotland normal more likely. Enhanced probs LQ except Scotland.




ECMWF - monthly - 120218 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
MAR near normal APR near normal MAY near normal
PPN:
MAR above normal locally normal in E APR Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, far SE England and SW Eire above elsewhere normal MAY below normal
PMSL:
MAR below normal especially to the NW APR below normal to the NE MAY S normal elsewhere above


EX1

Japan JMA (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution) - 120218
Temp: Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY below normal
PMSL: Season below normal (W)
MAR below normal (WSW) APR above normal (W) MAY below normal (Slack)



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes
Temp: near normal but most of Scotland, N England and Westcountry above normal
PPN : near normal
PMSL: below normal
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: near normal (+/-0.5C)
PPN : near normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080217
TEMP:
MAR slightly above normal APR above normal MAY above normal J
PPN:
MAR slightly above normal APR N slightly above normal S slightly below MAY slightly below


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP: Season: normal but above in E and S Scotland N and NE England as far S as E Anglia
MAR Above normal APR Above normal but NW Scotland and W Eire normal MAY normal but SE England below
PPN : Season: normal but below in S Eire, SW England and S England
MAR Normal but N Scotlnd above and S England below APR normal but above in Wales, NW England, Scotland and E parts of N Ireland MAY Normal .



Russia 310118
Temp: N Scotland and W Eire below normal elsewhere no signal possibly normal.
PPN : NW Scotland above normal E England below elsewhere no signal (similar probs for above/normal/below)



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080218
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - Above normal 4/7models 2/7 normal

PPN: season - near normal only 1 model above normal (GFDL FLOR)



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150218
TEMP: season - normal (monthly suggests slightly above in England Apr and May)
PPN rate: season - normal all months.



Graphics 080218
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P




2018 APR MAY JUN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210218
TEMP:
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN:
APR normal MAY normal but above in S and E Scotland, NE and E England, Cornwal and W Devon elsewhere normal JUN normal but above in W Midlands and perhaps W Highland Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140218
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal but parts of central S England above JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but Eire and N Ireland above
APR normal MAY ABove in Cornwall, Eire, N Ireland N England and Scotland elsewhere normal JUN Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070218
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN : Season: NE Scotland all E England normal elsewhere above
APR normal MAY above normal except SE England normal JUN E/SE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310118
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SE England
APR above normal MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Scotland
APR NW Scotland above, Wales, England and NE Scotland below normal elsewhere normal MAY N Ireland E Eire Wales and SW/S/SE England normal elsewhere JUN SW Eire below, Locally above in Wales and W Midlands also NE Scotland elsewhere normal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP:
APR slighty above normal MAY England below elsewhere slightly above normal JUN S normal or below N above normal
PPN:
APR below normal MAY Below normal but SW England above JUN far SE Eire, S Wales and S half England above eleswhere below




UKMO - 120218 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Above normal most likely enhanced probs UQ
PPN : Eire, Wales and SW UK most likely above normal elsewhere normal. Enhanced probs UQ many areas.
PSML: Mainly no signal but below nortm to SW of UK.




ECMWF - monthly - 120218 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
APR near normal MAY near normal JUN near normal
PPN:
APR Scotland, N Ireland, Wales, far SE England and SW Eire above elsewhere normal MAY below normal JUN England and Wales above elsewhere normal or below
PMSL:
APR below normal to the NE MAY S normal elsewhere above JUN normal but SW Eire above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080217
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN:
APR N slightly above normal S slightly below MAY slightly below JUN N slightly below S slightly above


CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
APR Above normal but NW Scotland and W Eire normal MAY normal but SE England below JUN mostly below normal
PPN :
APR normal but above in Wales, NW England, Scotland and E parts of N Ireland MAY Normal JUN Normal but above in N England and E Scotland





2018 MAY JUN JUL


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210218
TEMP:
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal but N half Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normal
PPN:
MAY normal but above in S and E Scotland, NE and E England, Cornwal and W Devon elsewhere normal JUN normal but above in W Midlands and perhaps W Highland Scotland JUL NE Scotland below normal. Eire, Wales and Midlands above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140218
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal but parts of central S England above JUN normal JUL normal but Scotland above
PPN: Season: Normal in N Ireland NE Scotland Wales and S half of England elsewhere above
MAY Above in Cornwall, Eire, N Ireland N England and Scotland elsewhere normal JUN Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal JUL Midlands and Devon above elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070218
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN : Season: SE England NE England NE Scotland and N Ireland normal elsewhere above normal
MAY above normal except SE England normal JUN E/SE England and NE Scotland normal elsewhere above normal JUL normal but above in central and west Scitland central Eire and Midlands England.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310118
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW England, Scotland and W Eire.
MAY N Ireland E Eire Wales and SW/S/SE England normal elsewhere JUN SW Eire below, Locally above in Wales and W Midlands also NE Scotland elsewhere normal JUL normal but above in W Eire, Scotland except the NE, also Midlands England.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP:
MAY England below elsewhere slightly above normal JUN S normal or below N above normal JUL N above normal S below normal
PPN:
MAY Below normal but SW England above JUN far SE Eire, S Wales and S half England above eleswhere below JUL above normal




ECMWF - monthly - 120218 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
MAY near normal JUN near normal JUL near normal
PPN:
MAY below normal JUN England and Wales above elsewhere normal or below JUL NW Eire, S and E Scotland, N England and parts of S/SW England below, elsewhere normal
PMSL:
MAY S normal elsewhere above JUN normal but SW Eire above JUL near normal




UKMO - 120218 - (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
TEMP: Similar probs for normal or above with above more likely. Enhanced probs for UQ.
PPN : Slightly favours above normal rather than normal. Chance UQ mainly in N and W.
PSML: normal most likely.



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080217
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal A
PPN:
MAY slightly below JUN N slightly below S slightly above JUL S slightly below elsewhere slightly above


CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
MAY normal but SE England below JUN mostly below normal JUL normal locally above in Scotland
PPN :
MAY Normal JUN Normal but above in N England and E Scotland JUL Normal A





2018 JUN JUL AUG

Summary - 170218 - main themes seem to be near or above normal temepratures monthly and for the season. Rainfall, very mixed indications from the models - no consistemncy. For the season normal or above but the with north more likely above and the south possibly below. Monthly data hints at July less wet except far N and perhaps August also drier but only in the south.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210218
TEMP: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
JUN normal JUL normal but N half Eire, N Ireland and Scotland above normal AUG normal but northern two thirds of Scotland above normal
PPN: Season: normal but Midlands SW England and most of Eire above.
JUN normal but above in W Midlands and perhaps W Highland Scotland JUL NE Scotland below normal. Eire, Wales and Midlands above elsewhere normal AUG SW Eire SW and southern England above NW Scotland below elsewhere normal.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140218
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal but Scotland above AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands SW England Eire and locally central belt Scotland.
JUN Scotland, N Ireland and Eire above elsewhere normal JUL Midlands and Devon above elsewhere normal AUG Above in MIdlandsnand SW England, Eire and central belr Scotland and Argyll

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070218
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN : Season: NE Scotland E England and SE England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: Normal but above in Scotland and W Eire




Korea APCC - 260218
Temp: Season above normal
JUN near or slightly above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN : Season No signal but hint of above in far NW and below in far S
JUN No signal JUL No signal AUG No signal



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP: Season: N slightly above S Slightly below
JUN S normal or below N above normal JUL N above normal S below normal AUG S normal or below N above normal
PPN: Season: above normal especially in S
JUN far SE Eire, S Wales and S half England above eleswhere below JUL above normal AUG S above N below



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 150218
Temp: no signalbr> PPN : South below normal elsewhere no signal



jamstec.go.jp Hindcasts 1983 to 2006
JAMSTEC SINTEX-F1 CGCM forecast (27-member ensemble) - 150218
Temp: Season: England and Wales above elsewhere below normal
PPN : Season: Scotland normal elsewhere below




ECMWF - monthly - 120218 - data from Weather US
TEMP:
JUN near normal JULnear normal AUG near normal but E Scotland and NE England above normal
PPN:
JUN England and Wales above elsewhere normal or below JUL NW Eire, S and E Scotland, N England and parts of S/SW England below, elsewhere normal AUG Devon Somerset and Dorset below, Eire, N Ireland W Scotland NE and SE Scotland and N England above elsewhere normal
PMSL:
JUN normal but SW Eire above JUL near normal AUG near normal


EC2

USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080217
TEMP:
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN:
JUN N slightly below S slightly above JUL S slightly below elsewhere slightly above AUG NE slightly below elsewhere slightly above


CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN mostly below normal JUL normal locally above in Scotland AUG Above normal
PPN : Season: normal
JUN Normal but above in N England and E Scotland JUL Normal AUG NE Scotland normal elsewhere below



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150218
TEMP: season - above normal (August near normal)
PPN rate: season -normal



CFS2 E3 ensemble of 10 days of model runs updated on date shown.
TN2 TN3 TN7

TN5 TN6 TN8



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080218
See graphics below for monthly variation.
TEMP: season - above normal all models 7/7

PPN: season - above normal in N elsewhere normal. (2 models above in N one in S and one below in S.)



Graphics 080218
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN not available

NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P



2018 JUL AUG SEP


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210218
TEMP: Season: normal but NW Scotland above
PPN: Season: above normal in central Eire SW England and MIdlands elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140218
TEMP: Season: normal but Scotland above
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands, SW England and locally W Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 070218
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN : Season: normal locally above in Midlands, Devon, central Eire and SW Scotland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 310118
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in W Eire.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP:
JUL N above normal S below normal AUG S normal or below N above normal SEP S normal or below N above normal
PPN:
JUL above normal AUG S above N below SEP above normal



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080217
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN:
JUL S slightly below elsewhere slightly above AUG NE slightly below elsewhere slightly above SEP N slightly above elsewhere slightly below


CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
JUL normal locally above in Scotland AUG Above normal SEP Above normal
PPN :
JUL Normal AUG NE Scotland normal elsewhere below SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere below





2018 AUG SEP OCT


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 210218
TEMP: Season: normal but abive in SE England and N half of Scotland
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands SW England and mist of Eire

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 140218
TEMP: Season: normal but Scotland and Midlands above
PPN: Season: normal but above in Midlands



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP:
AUG S normal or below N above normal SEP S normal or below N above normal OCT N Scotland and E England abvoe elesewhere below
PPN:
AUG S above N below SEP above normal OCT below normal NOV below normal but N Scotland above



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 080217
TEMP:
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT above normal
PPN:
AUG NE slightly below elsewhere slightly above SEP N slightly above elsewhere slightly below OCT far N slightly below elsewhere slightlyabove


CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
AUG Above normal SEP Above normal OCT Above normal but W Eire normal
PPN :
AUG NE Scotland normal elsewhere below SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere below OCT N Ireland and far N and W Scotland above, below in S/SE England elsewhere normal





2018 SEP OCT NOV

Summary - 210218 - Some indication for near normal temperatures and for North to be above normal rain and South below normal.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP: Season: Scotland slightly above elsewhere slightly below
SEP S normal or below N above normal OCT N Scotland and E England abvoe elesewhere below NOV above normal
PPN: Season: Scotland may be above normal but elsewhere below normal
SEP above normal OCT below normal NOV below normal but N Scotland above



CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP: Season: Above normal
SEP Above normal OCT Above normal but W Eire normal NOV normal but S and E England above
PPN : Season: normal locally below in SE England
SEP N Scotland normal elsewhere below OCT N Ireland and far N and W Scotland above, below in S/SE England elsewhere normal NOV mostly above normal .






2018 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP:
OCT N Scotland and E England abvoe elesewhere below NOV above normal DEC above normal
PPN:
OCT below normal NOV below normal but N Scotland above DEC below normal but S may be normal or slightly above



CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
OCT Above normal but W Eire normal NOV normal but S and E England above DEC Above normal
PPN :
OCT N Ireland and far N and W Scotland above, below in S/SE England elsewhere normal NOV mostly above normal DEC far N Scotland below, above in SE Eire S Scotland Wales and England except the S, elsewhere normal.





2018 NOV DEC 2019 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP:
NOV above normal DEC above normal JAN above normal
PPN:
NOV below normal but N Scotland above DEC below normal but S may be normal or slightly above JAN normal or slightly above



CanSIPS - 310118
TEMP:
NOV normal but S and E England above DEC Above normal JAN Above normal
PPN :
NOV mostly above normal DEC far N Scotland below, above in SE Eire S Scotland Wales and England except the S, elsewhere normal. JAN normal locally below in W Eire.





2018 DEC 2019 JAN FEB

Summary - 210218 - limited data - overall near normal temp and precipitation but looks like milder start to winter and drier colder end.



BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 210218 (availability delayed due website offline during holiday?) -
TEMP: Season: slightly above normal
DEC above normal JAN above normal FEB far E England above normal but elsewhere below normal
PPN: Season: S England above normal elsewhere below normal
DEC below normal but S may be normal or slightly above JAN normal or slightly above FEB below normal but far SW England above





NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data disseminating is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


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