SUMMARY OF SEASONAL FORECAST DATA FOR UK AND EIRE

Follow @T2mike
Experimental Seasonal Forecast for UK area - updated as new data becomes available. Previous summary - January 2017 data

Summary of experimental Seasonal Forecasts for the UK and Eire



Updated 270217 (ddmmyy). Typically updated on Thursdays. Main updates may be noted on Twitter @T2mike

This month and next latest
Seasonal text latest


Nino 3.4, NMME, Combination, CFS2 and UKMO Tropical N Atlantic latest plot. Click image for details.

ENSO NMME ENS Mean ENSO Comparison
ENSO CFS latest UKMO Tropical N Atlantic


October Data awaited from GLOBAL PRODUCING CENTRES
FINAL FEBRUARY UPDATE 270217. Initial March update due 030317. Not available India Met Office IMO, South Africa Weather Service (SAWS) LRF.

Data sources available on date: USA - NCEP CFS2 (010217 060217 150217 250217), CanSips 310117, Russia 020217, USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050217, US National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and NMME and CFS2 graphics 060217, UKMO seasonal 120217, BCC China 120217, Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO and RAS) 120217, Japan JMA 150217, International IMME 150217. USA - IRI 170217, UKMO Contingency 270217, Korea APCC 270217



CFS2 temperature plots for 40+ weeks (in 6 hour steps) from 06Z on date shown
Perth Birmingham
London Exeter

SEASONAL FORECAST
(Data date shown as ddmmyy).



For an attempt at regional detail for SW England click here after about the 20th





Spring 2017 MAR APR MAY

Summary -160217- Consistent signal for above average temperature for the season and each month. Hints that March may only be a little above normal especially in W and locations for above normal vary for April and May with western areas nearer normal in April and eastern ones in May - detail which is not reliable. Rainfall signal for above normal in March except perhaps the NE of Scotland which might be near or below average. Near normal in April locally below normal. May also near normal but risk of above in the N and perhaps the W (e.g. Eire, parts of SW and Wales). Pressure near normal at times below normal but less likely later in season.



UKMO Contingency 270217 - UKMO comment - Chance that Stratospheric Warming may bring drier and perhaps colder types for a time later in March or in April after westerly types predominate for much of March. (Note by Mike - Polar Stratospheric Vortex has been displaced East to the N of Russia with persistent NW flow over UK area weakening. Could lead to colder northerly types after mid month).
TEMP:
MARCH Strong signal for UK anomaly to be plus 1C or warmer. Less than 20% of solutions are normal or belopw normal with distribution of ensemble memeber shifted to above normal
MAR to MAY: Strongly shifted distribution to above normal (UKMO probs for 1 in 5 year warmest around 40% compared to 20% typical). Estimated probs from plot: for below normal around 10%, 20% normal and 70% above normal.
PPN:
MARCH Slightly higher probs for above normal than below due to main cluster being slightly above normal and second largest cluster being below normal.
MAR to MAY: Perhaps slightly more above normal solutions than below normal although there is perhaps more clustering around the near normal or slightly below normal. No clear signal.



USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250217
TEMP: Season: Eire normal elsewhere above
MAR above normal APR normal but SE England and N and W Scotland above MAY normal in Eire, N Ireland N Wales and NE England elsewhere above
PPN: Season: Above normal in Eire, Wales and all S of England elsewhere normal
MAR N Ireland and N Scotland below, above in S Eire all S England and S Wales elsewhere normal APR normal locally below in E of England MAY above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150217
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR N Ireland, Eire and NE England normal elsewhere above MAY Above in Eire, N Ireland S and W Scotland and SW England elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAR normal but locally above in NE Scotland, SW Eire, SW England and SE England APR above normal but normal in Wales and Midlands/NE England MAY Midlands and parts of S England normal elsewhere below

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060217
TEMP: Season: normal
MAR normal APR N Ireland and S Eire normal elsewhere above MAY normal
PPN: Season: N half Scotland normal elsewhere above
MAR far NW Scotland below, above normal in SE Scotland N Ireland E Eire Wales and most of England except E Anglia, elsewhere normal APR SW England, Wales and W Midlands above elsewhere normal MAY N half Scotland and far E England normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010217
TEMP: Season: normal but above in all of S and SE England
MAR above normal APR normal but above in Scotland SE England, Cornwall and Devon MAY normal
PPN: Season: above normal but NE Scotland normal
MAR above but normal in N and E Scotland and NE England APR normal locally above in SW England, W Wales, Eire and N Ireland and W Scotland MAY above normal


Korea APCC - 270217
Temp: Season above normal probs 40 to 50% in England but 60% or more elsewhere
MAR above normal probs 40 to 50% APR above normal probs 40 to 50% in England 60% plus elsewhere MAY 5abve normal 50% prob in S 60% in N
PPN : Season N Scotland no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below but elsewhere 40 to 50% prob for above normal
MAR Scotland no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below elsewhere 40% to 50% prob for above normal APR 40% to 50% prob for above normal MAY no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below



IRI multi-model ensemble information
USA - IRI - 170217 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: SE Eire 45% prob for above normal elsewhere more than 60%
PPN : No preference - similar prob categories for above/normal/below


Japan JMA 150217 (June 2015 - 51 member ensemble accumulated (13+13+13+12) over 15 days run 5 days apart at 110km resolution)
Temp: Season slightly above
MAR slightly above APR slightly above MAY slightly above
PPN : Season slightly above
MAR slightly above APR slightly above MAY England and Wales slightly above elsewhere slightly below
PMSL: Season below (weak W)
MAR well below (WNW) APR slightly below (weak NW) MAY slightly above (SLACK)



Brazil predicted sea temps (KUO) - two outputs schemes - 120217
Temp: Wales and N Midlands normal elsewhere slightly above
PPN :normal
PMSL: slightly below
Brazil predicted sea temps (RAS)
Temp: normal
PPN : N Ireland N Eire and W Scotland above elsewhere normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m Second generation coupled model. 24 members. Atmospheric component is BCC_AGCM2.2 at T106 horizontal resolution (about 1 degree) and 26 vertical layer.
BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAR S slightly above elsewhere above (0.5 to 1C in N) APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN: Season: below normal
MAR SW and NE England above elsewhere below normal APR below normal MAY SE England below elsewhere above


UKMO Seasonal (Glosea5 0.8*0.5 deg (50km) resolution 2 runs daily accumulated ensemble over 3 weeks 85 levels 75 ocean levels - 14 year hindcast 1996-2009)
UKMO Seasonal - 120217
TEMP: Above normal probs 60 to 80% range with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : Mixed signal for normal or above but in E of UK similar probs for above/normal/below. Parts for W Wales and SW England have slightly enhanced probs for well above normal.
PSML: S of UK has reduced probs for above normal. Mostly near normal UK and Eire but with chance of below normal in Scotland.


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050217
TEMP: Season above normal
MAR above normal APR NE above normal SW normal MAY above normal
PPN : Season normal locally above in NW Scotland
MAR normal but N half Scotland above APR NE Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above normal MAY normal but Scotland and N England below


Meteorological Service of Canada, CanSIPS forecasts are based on a 10-member ensemble of forecasts produced with each of two CCCma climate models for a total ensemble size of 20. Hindcast period 1981 to 2010. CanSips is included in the NMME.
CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN :
MAR above normal APR normal MAY normal locally above in W Cornwall and locally below in far NW Scotland



Russia 020217
Temp: England and Wales normal elsewhere similar probs for above/normal/below
PPN : Hint of below in SW England otherwise similar probs for above/normal/below




Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 070217
TEMP: season - Above normal (smaller anomalies in W and SW)

PPN: season - Above normal especially in western half of UK also Eire. Note the wetter month looks to be March on the month to month data with near normal in other months.




Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150217
TEMP: season above normal
MAR above normal APR above normal MAY above normal
PPN rate: season - near normal
MAR S Eire and SW UK above elsewhere normal APR normal MAY normal



Graphics 080217
CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P


NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200




2017 APR MAY JUN


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250217
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in N half Scoland far SE England
APR normal but SE England and N and W Scotland above MAY normal in Eire, N Ireland N Wales and NE England elsewhere above JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England
APR normal locally below in E of England MAY above normal JUN locally below in S Eire, SE Scotland and NE England but locally above in SW England and NW Scotland elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150217
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SW England
APR N Ireland, Eire and NE England normal elsewhere above MAY Above in Eire, N Ireland S and W Scotland and SW England elsewhere normal JUN normal locally above in Cornwall
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S and W Eire
APR above normal but normal in Wales and Midlands/NE England MAY Midlands and parts of S England normal elsewhere below JUN E half England and Scotland (except Edinburgh/Fife) normal elsewhere above

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060217
TEMP: Season: NE England and SW Eire normal elsewhere above
APR N Ireland and S Eire normal elsewhere above MAY normal JUN NE England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: SW England M Wales and W Midlands above elsewhere normal
APR SW England, Wales and W Midlands above elsewhere normal MAY N half Scotland and far E England normal elsewhere above JUN N Ireland, NW and SW Scotland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010217
TEMP: Season: normal
APR normal but above in Scotland SE England, Cornwall and Devon MAY normal JUN normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in W Scotland, Midlands and parts of central southern England
APR normal locally above in SW England, W Wales, Eire and N Ireland and W Scotland MAY above normal JUN normal but below in N Ireland and Eire


USA - IRI - 170217 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: More than 60% for above normal
PPN : No preference - similar prob categories for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN N and W slightly above elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland above elsewhere below normal
APR below normal MAY SE England below elsewhere above JUN N Scotland above elsewhere below


UKMO Seasonal - 120217
TEMP: Above normal probs 60 to 80% range but above 80% in Scotland with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : Mixed signal but in E of UK increased probs for below normal and a chance that the S and E of UK may be below.
PSML: Main signal is for above normal pressure. Chance of well above over Eire and S half of UK


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050217
TEMP: Season above normal
APR NE above normal SW normal MAY above normal JUN above normal
PPN : Season normal
APR NE Scotland normal elsewhere slightly above normal MAY normal but Scotland and N England below JUN normal but NW Eire below JUL normal


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
APR above normal MAY above normal JUN Eire, SW England and SW Wales normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
APR normal MAY normal locally above in W Cornwall and locally below in far NW Scotland JUN above normal





2017 MAY JUN JUL


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250217
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal in Eire, N Ireland N Wales and NE England elsewhere above JUN normal JUL normal
PPN: Season: locally normal in W Eire E Scotland and NE/E England elsewhere above
MAY above normal JUN locally below in S Eire, SE Scotland and NE England but locally above in SW England and NW Scotland elsewhere normal JUL normal in W Eire E Scotland and NE/E Englaznd elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150217
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in SW England and NW Scotland
MAY Above in Eire, N Ireland S and W Scotland and SW England elsewhere normal JUN normal locally above in Cornwall JUL Northern two thirds of Scotland and all S of England above elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal
MAY Midlands and parts of S England normal elsewhere below JUN E half England and Scotland (except Edinburgh/Fife) normal elsewhere above JUL Wales, Midlands and all S of England above, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060217
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
MAY normal JUN NE England normal elsewhere above JUL NE England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal
MAY N half Scotland and far E England normal elsewhere above JUN N Ireland, NW and SW Scotland below elsewhere normal JUL Most of England and Wales normal elsewhere below.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010217
TEMP: Season: normal
MAY normal JUN normal JUL mostly above locally normal in E half of England
PPN: Season: normal locally above in Midlands
MAY above normal JUN normal but below in N Ireland and Eire JUL normal but below in E Eire, E of N Ireland, S Scotland N and NE England Wales and far W Midlands.


USA - IRI - 170217 -forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal probs range from 45% in SE England to more than 70% in NW Scotland
PPN : No preference - similar prob categories for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
MAY above normal JUN N and W slightly above elsewhere above normal JUL above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland and N Ireland above elsewhere below
MAY SE England below elsewhere above JUN N Scotland above elsewhere below JUL below but in S strongly below normal


UKMO Seasonal - 120217
TEMP: Above normal probs 60 to 80% range with enhanced probs for well above normal
PPN : Mixed signal for above/normal/below but chance that Wales and S of UK is above normal BUT similar probs for well above and well below normal in S of UK which might imply short spells of heavy rain with also drier spells. (Summer thunderstorm type rain unlikely to be captured by climate models).
PSML: Normal or above normal most likely with the N more likely to be nearer normal and the S above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050217
TEMP: Season above normal
MAY above normal JUN above normal JUL above normal
PPN : Season normal
MAY normal but Scotland and N England below JUN normal but NW Eire below JUL normal


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
MAY above normal JUN Eire, SW England and SW Wales normal elsewhere above normal JUL Eire, N Ireland, SW England, W and SW Wales normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
MAY normal locally above in W Cornwall and locally below in far NW Scotland JUN above normal JUL normal above in E Scotland and N/NW England





2017 JUN JUL AUG


Summary - 160217- Above the 1981 to 2010 average is most likely with anomalies up to 1C indicated. N and W slightly lower anomalies for season but in August in the N hints at stronger anomalies in parts of N Scotland but elsewhere slightly less strong anomalies. Rainfall may be above normal in the S of UK in June then this risk may shift to the N and NW later in June or early July. Part of July and then August may see below average rainfall in the S and SE of UK and in August for SE Eire too.


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250217
TEMP: Season: normal
JUN normal JUL normal AUG normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S and SW England, W Midlands, W and NW Scotland
JUN locally below in S Eire, SE Scotland and NE England but locally above in SW England and NW Scotland elsewhere normal JUL normal in W Eire E Scotland and NE/E Englaznd elsewhere above normal AUG normal in Eire, N Ireland S Scotland Wales elsewhere above normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150217
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Cornwall and NW Scotland
JUN normal locally above in Cornwall JUL Northern two thirds of Scotland and all S of England above elsewhere normal AUG Above normal in SW England Eire, N Ireland, W and central Scotland, elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S Midlands and SW England
JUN E half England and Scotland (except Edinburgh/Fife) normal elsewhere above JUL Wales, Midlands and all S of England above, Eire and N Ireland below elsewhere normal AUG below normal in Eire, N Ireland, W and S Scotland and NW England, elsewhere normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060217
TEMP: Season: NE England normal elsewhere above
PPN: Season: normal locally below in N Ireland and NE England

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010217
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal


Korea APCC - 270217
Temp: Season 50% prob for above normal 60% in North.
JUN 50% plus prob for above normal JUL 50% plus prob for above normal AUG 50% plus prob for above normal
PPN : Season no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below
JUN no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below JUL no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below AUG no signal / similar probs for above/normal/below



USA - IRI - 170217 - forecasts tends to be overly warm
Temp: Above normal probs range from 40% in SE England to 45 to 50% in N England and Eire to more than 70% in NW Scotland
PPN : No preference - similar prob categories for above/normal/below


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUN N and W slightly above elsewhere above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal
PPN: Season: NW Eire above elsewhere below
JUN N Scotland above elsewhere below JUL below but in S strongly below normal AUG Scotland and NE England below elsewhere above


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050217
TEMP: Season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG slightly above normal
PPN : Season normal
JUN normal but NW Eire below JUL normal AUG normal but Wales below


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
JUN Eire, SW England and SW Wales normal elsewhere above normal JUL Eire, N Ireland, SW England, W and SW Wales normal elsewhere above normal AUG SE England above elsewhere normal
PPN :
JUN above normal JUL normal above in E Scotland and N/NW England AUG normal locally below in SW England



Indication from Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) ex NOAA date - 080217
TEMP: season - moderately strong signal for above normal

PPN: season - bit mixed season may be below in S and SW, monthly detail of late has been unreliable but suggest drier July and Aug in S but drier June in N.



Indication from International Multi Model Ensemble (IMME) ex NOAA date - 150217
TEMP: season above normal
JUN above normal JUL above normal AUG above normal (slightly less so)
PPN rate: season - near normal
JUN near normal JUL near normal AUG near normal



CFS2 MAX MIN TEMP

TX TX TX

TN TN TN

CFS2 TEMP

T T T

CFS2 PPN

P P P



NMME MAX and MIN
TX TX TX


TN TN TN


NMME TEMP:

T T T



NMME PPN rate:

P P P


NMME TEMP PROBS:

T T T

NMME PPN:
P P P



UK area Plotted from 1 deg grib NMME ENS Temp and PPN rate mean anomaly
T T T

P P P
200hPa height anomaly NMME and CFS2 with mean CFS2 200hPa data 1 deg grib

200


2017 JUL AUG SEP


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250217
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in far SE England
PPN: Season: normal but above in SW England and Scotland except the NE and SE.

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150217
TEMP: Season: normal locally above in Cornwall N Ireland and Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally above in S Midlands and locally below in E Eire, S Scotland and N Ireland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 060217
TEMP: Season: above in SW England, Eire, N Ireland and most of Scotland elsewhere normal
PPN: Season: normal

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 010217
TEMP: Season: normal
PPN: Season: normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal
JUL above normal AUG above normal SEP above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland below elsewhere above
JUL below but in S strongly below normal AUG Scotland and NE England below elsewhere above SEP above normal especially S and E


USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050217
TEMP:
JUL above normal AUG slightly above normal SEP slightly above normal
PPN :
JUL normal AUG normal but Wales below SEP most of England and S Wales normal elsewhere below


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
JUL Eire, N Ireland, SW England, W and SW Wales normal elsewhere above normal AUG SE England above elsewhere normal SEP above normal
PPN :
JUL normal above in E Scotland and N/NW England AUG normal locally below in SW England SEP Above in far NW Scotland, below in S Scotland SE of N Ireland most of Eire, England and Wales elsewhere normal





2017 AUG SEP OCT


USA - NCEP CFS2 - 250217
TEMP: Season: Normwal in Eire, N Ireland, Wales, NE England and NE Scotland elsewhere above normal
PPN: Season: normal but above in NW Scoland

USA - NCEP CFS2 - 150217
TEMP: Season: normal but above in W Scotland, N Ireland and N half of Scotland
PPN: Season: normal locally below in parts NW Scotland



USA NASA GMAO GSFC 050217
TEMP:
AUG slightly above normal SEP slightly above normal OCT S and SE half of England below elsewhere normal
PPN :
AUG normal but Wales below SEP most of England and S Wales normal elsewhere below OCT Midlands, S and E England normal also far N Scotland elsewhere below normal


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: above normal especially in N
AUG above normal SEP above normal OCT N Scotland slightly above elsewhere below
PPN: Season: N Scotland below elsewhere above especially in S and SW
AUG Scotland and NE England below elsewhere above SEP above normal especially S and E OCT Scotland, N Ireland N England below elsewhere above


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
AUG SE England above elsewhere normal SEP above normal OCT normal but far NE Scotland above
PPN :
AUG normal locally below in SW England SEP Above in far NW Scotland, below in S Scotland SE of N Ireland most of Eire, England and Wales elsewhere normal OCT N Scotland normal elsewhere above





2017 SEP OCT NOV


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: slightly above
SEP above normal OCT N Scotland slightly above elsewhere below NOV above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland below elsewhere above
SEP above normal especially S and E OCT Scotland, N Ireland N England below elsewhere above NOV NE Scotland above elsewhere below


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
SEP above normal OCT normal but far NE Scotland above NOV NE Scotland above elsewhere normal
PPN :
SEP Above in far NW Scotland, below in S Scotland SE of N Ireland most of Eire, England and Wales elsewhere normal OCT N Scotland normal elsewhere above NOV Eire normal elsewhere below normal





2017 OCT NOV DEC


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland slightly above elsewhere slightly below
OCT N Scotland slightly above elsewhere below NOV above normal DEC below normal (0.5 to 1C)
PPN: Season: SW England above elsewhere below
OCT Scotland, N Ireland N England below elsewhere above NOV NE Scotland above elsewhere below DEC below


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
OCT normal but far NE Scotland above NOV NE Scotland above elsewhere normal DEC above normal
PPN :
OCT N Scotland normal elsewhere above NOV Eire normal elsewhere below normal DEC England and Wales above and far N Scotland below elsewhere normal





2017 NOV DEC 2018 JAN


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland and N Ireland slightly above elsewhere slightly below
NOV above normal DEC below normal (0.5 to 1C) JAN England below elsewhere above
PPN: Season: below normal
NOV NE Scotland above elsewhere below DEC below JAN Scotland above elsewhere below


CanSIPS - 310117
TEMP:
NOV NE Scotland above elsewhere normal DEC above normal JAN S England normal elsewhere above normal
PPN :
NOV Eire normal elsewhere below normal DEC England and Wales above and far N Scotland below elsewhere normal JAN N Scotland normal elsewhere below





2017 DEC 2018 JAN FEB


BCC China BCC CSM1.1m - 120217 -
TEMP: Season: Scotland slightly above elsewhere slightly below normal
DEC below normal (0.5 to 1C) JAN England below elsewhere above FEB above normal
PPN: Season: N Scotland and N Ireland above elsewhere below
DEC below JAN Scotland above elsewhere below FEB SW England below elsewhere above




NOTEs:
1. NORMAL=typically the model normal based on historic runs rather than the measured normal from observation - hence trends rather than numbers are a better guide.
2. CFS2 monthly and seasonal anomalies hindcast period 1982-2010.
3. CFS2 weekly anomalies are with respect to the lead dependent model climatology from the hindcast period (1999-2010) without any adjustment - a very warm decade!.
4. UKMET The hindcast period used for model normal is 1996 to 2009. 42-member ensemble seasonal forecast (120KM res over land) combining and bias correcting all forecast members available prior to issue.
5. JMA updated hindcast period 1981-2010
6. NOAA GFDL FLOR – 50KM resolution - Forecast­oriented Low Ocean Resolution version of CM2.5, substitutes 1­degree ocean for the 0.25­degree. 
7. NMME data, please see the BAMS article (Kirtman et al. 2014). The NMME project and data dissemination is supported by NOAA, NSF, NASA and DOE with the help of NCEP, IRI and NCAR personnel in creating, updating and maintaining the NMME archive.

KEY: UKMO=UK Met Office KMA= Korea Met Agency JMA=Japan Met Agency Russia=Hydrometcentre of Russia NOAA=main US climate data model used by Climate Prediction Centre.
Other N America data also used e.g. NASA and IRI. CMA=China Meteorological Administration. GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. CMC=Canada Met Center.


Comments or questions please E mail

Go to Obs and Sat pics Go to Forecast links Go to Featured area links Go to Natural Hazards links Go to climate links Go to UK Ozone data